Not much has gone right for the Padres in 2023. They entered this year as the pre-season favorites for the NL West title, looking as though they were ready to finally assert themselves as the big dog in the National League and dethrone the Dodgers, who have resided comfortable at the front of the pack for most of the past decade. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract before extending Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado on big money deals of their own, signalling they were all-in with the team that had traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader at 2022’s trade deadline. With Fernando Tatis Jr.’s return to the baseball diamond on the horizon, the future looked bright in San Diego.
Needless to say, things have not gone as planned this season. With a 63-73 record, the Padres are ten games under .500 and in fourth place in the NL West, behind not only the division-leading Dodgers but also both the Giants and Diamondbacks. LA has a stranglehold on the division title at this point, but both San Francisco and Arizona have solid odds at a Wild Card, per Fangraphs: 58.5% and 43.6%, respectively. The Padres, meanwhile, are all but eliminated from postseason contention this year with just a 0.6% chance at a Wild Card berth.
With the notable exceptions of Soto and Hader, the club’s expected stars have faltered this year: Darvish, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Machado have all had down years to varying degrees after signing those big money deals in the offseason, while Tatis hasn’t looked like the superstar he once seemed to be and right-hander Joe Musgrove has spent much of the season on the injured list. With the exception of lefty Blake Snell, the club’s success stories have largely come by way of their more unheralded players: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have both looked like absolute heists after being plucked from free agency to fill out the rotation, while a catching tandem of post-hype youngster Luis Campusano and minor league addition Gary Sanchez has been quite impressive.
Given that, perhaps it’s no surprise that the team’s MVP isn’t one of their many nine-figure contracts, their shutdown closer, or even Soto and his perennial .400 OBP. Instead, it’s infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has followed up a major step forward in 2022 with yet another step forward this year to become one of the best infielders in the sport.
Kim first broke into the majors with the Padres back in 2021, after signing a four-year, $28MM deal with the Padres to come over to MLB from the KBO. Kim had been an elite player during his time in Korea, slashing .294/.373/.493 across 7 seasons with the Kiwoom Heroes. He posted a particularly strong platform season before heading overseas, with a .306/.397/.524 slash line in his final season with the Heroes. Unfortunately, he didn’t come particularly close to living up to that promise during his age-25 campaign, his first as a big leaguer. While he played strong defense at second and third base in addition to his home position of shortstop, he posted a meager 72 wRC+, hitting just .202/.270/.352 with a 23.8% strikeout rate, a massive jump from the 10.9% figure he posted in his final year in Korea.
While Kim played in 117 games with San Diego in 2021, he was largely a part-time player, accumulating just 298 plate appearances. Things changed for the youngster in 2022, however. Between the injuries and PED suspension that plagued Tatis, the club’s regular shortstop at the time, Kim was given a full season’s runway at shortstop, and he made the most of it. His offense improved from nearly 30% below league average to slightly above in 2022 as he slashed .251/.325/.383 with a wRC+ of 106. That offensive performance combined with his stellar defense at shortstop and a reduced 17.2% strikeout rate allowed Kim to finish the season with 3.8 fWAR, 11th in the majors among shortstops and not far off from the likes of Nico Hoerner and Carlos Correa.
Kim’s major step forward in 2022 was not enough to guarantee him the everyday shortstop role headed into 2023, however. While Tatis was moved to the outfield during his absence, the club signed Bogaerts to play shortstop, leaving Kim to slide over to second base as Cronenworth moved to cover first following the departure of Josh Bell. While he has spent time elsewhere in the infield while covering for Machado and Bogaerts, over two thirds of Kim’s innings have come at the keystone, where he’s flourished defensively. Kim sports +7 Outs Above Average this season, on par with the likes of Ryan McMahon and Andres Gimenez. Meanwhile, he ranks tied for seventh in the majors with Gimenez on the DRS leaderboard with a sensational +16 figure.
Perhaps even more impressive than Kim’s glovework is the leap forward he’s made on offense. While he made himself a slightly above-average offensive contributor in 2022, he’s made himself an All-Star caliber bat in 2023 with a .277/.367/.434 slash line in 527 trips to the plate this season. While his 18.6% strikeout rate in 2023 is slightly higher than last year’s figure, he’s more than compensated by taking more walks, allowing his 8.8% figure from last season to shoot up to 12.1%, top 20 in the majors. Of the nineteen players with higher walk rates, only Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and Adley Rutschman strike out less than Kim, putting him in elite territory when it comes to plate discipline. On top of this improved discipline, Kim has turned himself into a major asset on the basepaths this year, swiping 29 bases in 37 attempts.
Between his defensive prowess and greatly improved offense, Kim has made himself not only the Padres’ team MVP, but one of the most valuable players in the National League. His 4.6 fWAR this season is sixth in the NL, sandwiched between Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll and two-time All Star Matt Olson. When looking at Baseball Reference WAR, Kim is only eclipsed by Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr. among NL players.
While Kim’s standout season hasn’t saved the Padres this year, the 27-year-old could still provide impact for a future playoff chase given that he’s under contract for just $8MM next season. With his contract ending in a mutual option worth $8MM for 2025, Kim seems likely to join Soto in departing for free agency following the 2024 campaign barring an extension. Whether the Padres decide to retool for the future and field offers on their pair of star free-agents-to-be or go all-in for the 2024 season while the duo are still under contract, Kim is a clear player to watch even as the majority of eyes will be focused on Soto’s potential final season in San Diego and impending free agency following the 2024 season.
Bob Melvin’s previously stellar managerial reputation has taken quite a hit this year. We’ll see if he gets the chance to redeem himself next year.
HSK is my favorite non Mariner ball player. He is smooth as a baby’s bottom. Does absolutely everything well, he is almost machine like. His knowledge of the strike zone and how pitchers are going to attack him has put him over the top this year. What a stud
Baby bottom HSK a stud. Gotcha.
Huge stud. Mega stud. Do compliments make you uncomfortable?
I just don’t think I’ve seen baby bottom and stud used in the same sentence before ^_^
I’m with you. As a non Padre fan, I have enjoyed HSK’s heart and hustle on the diamond. If the rest of the team played ball like them, they wouldn’t be under .500 and in fourth place in their division.
With Preller as the GM the only thing he is good at is handing out ownership’s money on free agents! Most of his long term contracts have not panned out and this latest Bogaerts deal for 11 years borders on insanity! He is 32 and isn’t even superstar caliper…. Now they can’t afford to resign Snell and Hader because of it! At this point Preller should be fired! Payroll is sky high with no relief in site and no funds!
true, in the last 10 years preller and cashman 0 rings and 0 world series appearances, dombrowski 2 world series appearances and 1 ring in 8 years with 2 differenrent teams( redsox,phillies)
Bogaerts turns 31 in October.
The Bogaerts deal was incredibly stupid because it was a position that they did not need. With Kim at ss and Machado and 3B, they should have left Crony at 2B (although he may have played his way out of starting lineup) and signed a cheap 1B with thump. That cheap 1B could have matched Bogaerts hitting at one tenth the price. The deal only made sense if they had planned on letting Machado go, and Machado is hitting better than Bogaerts and was extended. Tatis Jr. Is the most talented position player on team and Machado, Soto and Kim are huge assets. Bogaerts was just a dumb signing for a team that did not need him. Now they will need to pay a fortune to resign Snell and Barlow and Suarez can take over for Hader.
What cheap 1B with thump? Name one that was a FA.
Watching Machado walk would have been GOOD for the Padres? he was coming off a 6.8 WAR, 158 OPS+ season. Not a huge list of better players out there at any position. Who exactly do you think they could replace him with?
Bogaerts was a 130 OPS+ hitter last season and 5.9 WAR. Not many better. Kim wasn’t better. So, based only on their past performance, who would you have signed?
@Manny Machado IS NOT hitting better than Boegarts this year. The Manny extension is just as dumb as the Boegarts signing.
109 OPS+ vs 105 OPS+. Yes, Machado is hitting better than Bogaerts.
What you are doing is trying to use hindsight to justify Preller not making a decision PRIOR to any of the season happening. That doesn’t work. Preller did not make that decision today. NO ONE could have predicted how many superstars would not perform this season.
And as usual you didn’t answer my questions nor rebut my argument in any way.
You get facts wrong consistently and you can’t make a cogent argument. Maybe try another hobby. This one is not working out for you.
@Scream_name Just call websoulsurfer out for also being Pads Fans, outinleftfield and BaseballisLife. That’ll shut him up with the quickness.
It’s refreshing to read a coherent Padre analysis instead of the endless, mindless “fire Preller” rants.
You sign free agents believing they are the missing piece that will get U to the playoffs right? The last thing the Padres needed was another shortstop! Elite teams have star players at positions where that normally isn’t the case. There are only a few who can hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs
You sign free agents believing they are the missing piece that will get U to the playoffs right? So Preller thought what the Padres needed was another SS? Elite teams have star players at positions where that normally isn’t the case. There are only a few who can hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs in MLB. Fernando should have remained at shortstop! Finding outfielders that can put up big offensive numbers isn’t that hard but at SS it is almost impossible! This hurt the Padres offense when they moved him to the outfield. The Padres biggest issue this year has been consistent run production!
Rotten poster, Bogaerts had a 5.9 WAR in 2022. That is top 12 in the game. A superstar. He turns 31 at the end of this season.
All of the long-term contracts Preller has signed are in their first years, so unless you have a crystal ball there Nostradamus, you have zero clue how they will turn out.
Seidler just said that they expect to be around the same payroll in 2024 and are hoping to extend Soto. Since they only have around $180 million on the books for 2024 including arbitration raises, I am pretty sure they have the money. I know for damn sure that Seidler knows better than either of us if they can afford to spend and he says they are going to.
When you can’t even get the basic facts correct, why should anyone pay attention to your opinion?
So U think giving a middle infielder an 11 year $280 million dollar deal was prudent especially when U already had 2 quality shortstops on the roster! Bogaerts won’t even be playing baseball the last three years of his deal..The money should have been spent where the team was lacking. Fernando should have remained at short and Chroninworth at second then get yourself a power bat at 1st base! This team has struggled to score runs on a consistent basis all season! HSK becomes your utility guy and insurance for injuries! At Fernando’s young age their R few if any shortstops that can post his offensive numbers over 162 games at SS. Where is the money going to come from to resign Soto, Snell, and Hader? Preller continues to sign the latest shiny object and refuses to have a long term plan. The guy should be fired. 2 wild card appearances in 7 years and the 3rd highest payroll in baseball this season and they were eliminated from contention by September 1st!
RBF:
WSS already did a pretty good job of responding to you
I just want to add in one thing
TEAMS KNOW THAT PLAYERS WON’T BE PERFORMING AT THE END OF THESE LONG CONTACTS.
They know that. They don’t care. People are not providing any useful information by pointing that out time and time again. THE TEAMS KNOW
it’s like buying a new car. At first you are paying $1000 a month for a brand new car – great deal! 5 years later you are paying $1000 a month for an old car – not as great of a deal. But most people prefer to spread out those payments instead of paying it all at once.
Exactly the same for teams. They want the next 5 or so years of a player, but they don’t want to pay $50 million a year, so they pay $30 million for ten years to spread out the cost.
People commenting on financial aspects of baseball should understand the bare minimum basics of finance
With Preller as the GM the only thing he is good at is handing out ownership’s money to free agents! Most of his long term contracts have not panned out and this latest Bogaerts deal for 11 years borders on insanity! He is 32 and isn’t even superstar caliper…. Now they can’t afford to resign Snell and Hader because of it! At this point Preller should be fired! Payroll is sky high with no relief in site and no funds!
I think they are looking at Robert Suarez as next year’s closer. As for Snell, I expect him to sign with his hometown Mariners on a Musgrove style deal.
Mariners are pretty stacked with starting pitching. Even if Snell wanted to give a little hometown discount, it’s hard to see the M’s prioritizing a big contract for a starter this offseason.
Snell will surpass 5/100 in both years and AAV.
My guess would be 6-7 years with an AAV around $27-28 million I doubt he is taking a hometown or Padres discount.
Considering that their owner was talking about an extension for Soto, I think they have the funds.
mlb fan;
Sure. Like HOF’er Tony La Russa lost his “managerial reputation” working in a similar environment with the White Sox (no one can manage that team – they got a new manager and now the fans complain about him).
Bob Melvin’s previously stellar managerial reputation is still intact.
No one has been able to manage the padres since Preller got there. Preller sticks his nose in and his “stars” are making so much money they’re allowed to do whatever they want.
Like HOF’er Tony La Russa lost his “managerial reputation” working in a similar environment with the White Sox (they got a new manager and now the fans complain about him).
Kids in the national baseball media and most fans don’t know the first thing about how MLB baseball is played – most think the manager isn’t even needed…like rotisserie baseball. It starts at the top with the owner, then to the head bf Baseball Ops. When they cater to their high-salaried players and allow them to play for their stats and take shortcuts on the field, then none of the other players show up prepared to play and execute fundamentals.
BTW – Mr. La Russa has been scouting the minors for the White Sox. He’s a brilliant baseball mind. With the dumping of Williams and Hann (at least 10 years too late) the Sox have a chance to build a real organization. Until Preller is fired and the owner hires a qualified PoBO the Padres will continue to be flash and lose. Mets have the same situation.
I do agree with much of what you said. Melvin is far from the first Mgr to underwhelm with this Pads team. That being said, everyone and everything looks bad when you underperform this bad.
Larussa lost his reputation when he and his cronies put harold baines in the hof.
In all fairness, fans complain about the Pedro Grifol hire because the team was supposed to be good and they went the cheap route with a guy with no managerial experience from a losing organization. His first season has been a total disaster. Not many parallels between the Padres and White Sox other than both being expected to win but I’d certainly choose Melvin over Grifol.
Gotta think he’s on his way out the door
No mention of Blake Snell?
Snell was mentioned briefly.
Just Looked Up Snells Stats. He Has Pitched Amazing !
His BB/9 is over 5. He is at a career high in BB’s and wild pitches. His FIP, although still decent, is a full run higher than his ERA. Somebody will spend big on him, but buyer beware.
Yeah I saw that with the Walks. He also doesn’t go that deep. Or not at deep as he did in his Cy Year. By the K’s limit Runs. And that’s what it all about. Nowadays it’s 5 innings I guess then Pulled. Maybe 180 a season at Best. That should cost him some Money. And he’ll be 31. I think they go for Rodon Money. He’ll be a year older than Rodon was. But better numbers overall in his free agent year, if things hold up. Of course the walks won’t be as good. And FIP. I don’t think he’ll get as much as 6/162. But you never know. Are the Pads Tapped Out Yet ??? Giants are looking for a Pitcher or Two. LA Always. Yanks. Texas, With Scherzer hurting. That’d be 2 guys out for the year if it’s another TJ.
Since he’s not performing as well as before, maybe the Padres will resign him to an 11 year deal?
Snell doesn’t actually throw many strikes. On days he’s not getting close calls or numerous chases, he’s prone to lots of walks and ultra high pitch counts. I would probably risk a Musgrove type deal on him(100-110 million/5 yrs), but anything more or longer years is far too risky with him. I believe “buyer beware” is fair to say about Snell, because patient, veteran hitters can often expose him.
I was curious about that so I looked it up. Of batters with more than 5 AB against Snell this season, only Sean Murphy is hitting above .225 against him. So veteran hitters are apparently not exposing him this season.
Rodon is a good comp. Snell will probably have 2 Cy Youngs,has a better health record, and a better platform year so he will get a bit more IMO.
It’s pretty clear Kim is the heart and soul of that team. But genius Preller decided to clog the left side of the infielder for a decade. They could’ve signed Snell and Kim long term for the ridiculous contract he gave to Xander…and have money left over
Kim is great! And humble – which is quite different than Machado, Tatis and Soto
Kim doesn’t speak English. I speak his native Korean and let me assure you, he is not as humble as you might think.
His ascent is no surprise. The Heros are my favorite KBO and it was tough seeing him leave. He is still filling out, despite his age, so there is a good possibility that he has even more power.
Wonder if the language barrier is why he’s not affected by what’s seemingly a poor clubhouse environment
Humble doesn’t win games. Or lose them. Or have anything to do,with them.
Snell has been wonderful this year but I’m hoping they let him and Hader walk. It’s hard for me to imagine Snell being as good as he is been this year going forward. The slow starts every year before turning it on in the 2nd half was frustrating. Clearly he got it going a good month and a half sooner this year, easy to see where the extra motivation came from.
Regarding Hader, I’d much rather Preller look for the next Brad Hand or Kirby Yates versus giving another reliever a big contract. Adios Drew Pomeranz too.
Agree completely about Kim being the heart and soul of the team. I could see them signing him to an extension or letting 2024 play out and going with Jackson Merrill as his replacement. There’s probably room for both with Merrill recently seeing action at new positions including the outfield.
That said I hope they learned their lesson with all the premature extensions this past off season and let 2024 play out before committing either way.
PadrePapi:
“easy to see where the extra motivation came from.”
Being a competition driven to succeed. Agreed.
It blows my mind when Padres fans don’t want a 2 time CY winner on their team. They wouldn’t be just 9 games under .500 without him shutting down opposing hitters this year.
HSK is really good – so naturally, Preller thought it best to move him to a different position, spend a few hundred million on an unnecessary replacement, then leave holes in the roster elsewhere.
Prellar is just a frat boy who was given an unlimited credit card; he clearly possesses no advanced knowledge of baseball and just buys the shiniest, most expensive item on the shelf.
Xander Bogaerts was coded as having made a reference to HSK being a better shortstop than he was.
Xander Bogaerts is a great teammate, isn’t he?
On defense. No doubt. But baseball is both hitting and defense and there is also no doubt that when they signed him Bogaerts has been the better overall shortstop.
Love to see that quote from Bogey. Shows how humble he is. Do you have a link?
Kim being the lesser hitter isn’t a reason to move him off shortstop. It isn’t easier to hit a fastball if you are playing 2nd base.
It is easier for the guy that has played 2B before to play that position than for the guy that has never played the position to move there.
The guy that is the better overall player is also the one that stays at the position. There is no question who was the better player prior to the signing. That is why they chose to have Bogey stay at his natural position.
This is really not that hard to understand. I don’t know why so many people are struggling with it.
“The guy that is the better overall player is also the one that stays at the position.”
Not always true. Manny Machado was a shortstop throughout the minors but moved to 3rd base when he came up to the majors in deference to JJ Hardy. I think you know who the better overall player is. Similarly, Bogaerts was the better overall player on the strength of his bat not his glove.
Key word. Minors.
JJ was the better MAJOR LEAGUE PLAYER. He was also THE best defensive SS in baseball at the time.
Case closed.
Bogaerts was the better overall player. Period.
End of story.
Manny Machado’s success didn’t come out of nowhere. He was a #3 overall pick and was ranked #6 on MLBPipeline at the start of 2012. And HSK was also the best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2022.
NOW end of story.
No. Now I am going to chime in because you keep doubling down on asinine.
Machado was in the minors to start 2012. His first shot at AA. The list of top prospects that don’t pan out is extremely long. You could write a book with just their names.
Do you know who the #5 and #7 prospects were that year? Miller and Profar. How did they work out?
JJ Hardy was a great SS and was coming off a 4.5 WAR season where he ranked 4th in MLB among SS. Moving him off SS for a 19 year old, unproven Machado would be like moving Kim for Merrill.. In other words, a stupid move.
Actually, Merrill is hitting and overall playing better in AA than Machado did that season, so it would be worse.
NOW its end of story.
Don’t post using your burner to follow up bro.
@Crikes Ask BaseballisLife for the link to Manny Machado saying, while he was with the Dodgers, that he’s absolutely, 100% not going to sign with a New York team under any circumstances. He claimed that Manny said than and muted anyone that asked for proof.
@harambe Why do you care so much? He’s not the only person on this site who does that.
Well yeah that’s Preller doing Preller things. He’s like a chef that can get great ingredients but has no idea how to mix them together to get a well balanced meal. It’s like every meal he makes has to be topped with cavier when some salt and pepper would have done a better job for less.
The manager is supposed to be the chef that actually makes the meal. The POBO is the the one that sources the ingredients the chef wants in that meal.
Despite the repetitive use of phrases to describe HSK, I have to agree with this article. My money is on Cronenwoeth and Soto being traded in the off-season. BoMel is a solid skipper and I can’t off the top of my head come up with a better replacement…
Melvin has not been a good manager this season. Nearly all of his position players are having far below career average seasons. If its one or two, that is the players. When its nearly all, its on the coaching staff and that staff is led by Melvin.
I was blown away when I heard Melvin say that he has taken a hands-off approach in his managing this season. That is the exact opposite of what good managers do. So much of the decision making this season has been by Ryan Christenson, the “associate manager” and heir apparent to BoMel. It didn’t work.
As recently as the trade deadline the Padres was talking about making an extension offer to Soto. I doubt that has changed. Expect him back at the very least.
Cronenworth may be a different story. Seidler has shown no issue with eating bad contracts.
But is Melvin even making the decisions? Are front office techno metric honks texting down moves on an iPad? Is this a continuation of Tinglerism? The manager in the field should have a better feel for the right move. All I see are textbook moves made by a stupid robot.
Maybe get out of the closet and watch a few games. If you watched more games and understood what was going on a little, you wouldn’t be spouting conspiracy theories from Q about “techno metric honks texting down moves on an iPad.”
The Pads may have a +58 run diff but their stats in the late innings and with RISP suggest they are a bunch of front running gutless choke artists.
@Hired Completely agree..although it would really need to be part of the same package for Cronenworth to have any value. Good news is that the Padres have quietly moved back into having a borderline top 10 farm system again, and if they do the right thing and unload Soto, that could easily bump it to top 5. The question is will they.
Not borderline. Both BA and MLB have them in top 10. An extension for Soto is much more likely than a trade with just one season left on his deal. A .900 OPS player is hard to replace.
Why would they trade Soto when they gave up Abrams, Gore and Wood for him?
And to everyone who is going to say “They can flip Soto for a better return than the one they gave up to get him,” shut up. Just stfu.
Because this team, as it’s currently laid out, isn’t working. I don’t know if it’s the egos, clubhouse stuff, everyone wanting to go yard every at bat, or what..but especially if it’s true that they want to be in on Ohtani, then a star in the final year of his contract should be the one to go to bring back the most value.
“I don’t know if it’s the egos, clubhouse stuff, everyone wanting to go yard every at bat, or what..”
Hey guys! We got one of the Padres players commenting on this thread! Wonder who it is?
“… then a star in the final year of his contract should be the one to go to bring back the most value.”
If it isn’t C. J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana it’s not worth it. You don’t trade for a star just to flip him a year later for 50 cents on the dollar.
This team as its currently coached is not working. Old adage in baseball. When its one player doing bad, it’s the player. When the whole team is going bad, it’s the manager. I would include all the coaches. Only Kim is playing up to last seasons numbers. What’s that tell you.
… four paragraphs-in we get the name. I’ve now started skipping the first few paragraphs in such articles.
How good has Kim been? Only 3 position players in baseball have been better. Betts, Acuna, and Freeman. That is it.
Soto, Olson, Harper, Arraez, Paredes… there are bunch of position players doing better than Kim.
No. There isn’t. Maybe read the article.
From this article,
“When looking at Baseball Reference WAR, Kim is only eclipsed by Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr.”
The crazy things about the Padres lack of success is that almost all of their players are having pretty good seasons. And even in the case of Darvish and Bogaerts, their average numbers are being made up for by great performances by guys you might not expect like Wacha and Kim. I wouldn’t be surprised if this same team somehow managed to win 95 plus games next year and this wasn’t just a weird abberation.
They have a +58 run differential which is an 89 win pace.
They aren’t as terrible as the hot taekers believe.
“They have a +58″…At some point, you are what your record says you are. The Padres may not be “terrible”, but the numbers that count, do say they’re mediocre, which is just as bad.
Mlbfan:
Why is that “at some point, you are what your record says you are”? Please support your response with facts
This is why you had to write those reports in high school and cite your sources and all that. To prepare you for functioning like a non-idiot in the real world.
Also, runs scored and runs allowed also count, do they not?
Also, by definition “mediocre” is not just as bad as “terrible”.
@fili theyve won a handful of blowouts and gone 6-22 in 1 run games and 0-11 in extra innings. Run differential is a moot point in this case.
SN:
Sigh
Why is run differential a “moot point in this case”?
Again, that they’ve lost so many close games is evidence that sequencing is the problem. Not sucking,
They have to go undefeated the rest of the way to hit 89 wins. It’s September 3rd……………..Yes they are terrible
amk:
Their record has been bad
They haven’t really been that bad.
No, that’s not the same thing
Their pitching has been good. Their offense is way too top heavy with mediocre depth and production has been as such. Hilarious watching you die on this “Padres are a good team” hill. They were supposed to be a World Srries contender and won’t even finish 3rd in the division. Just an atrocious season that Preller needs to answer for
amk:
They’ve gotten reasonable performances from most of their key players.
The distribution of those performances hasn’t lead to as many wins as one would expect.
This is a good team that had a bad season. I’d expect them to bounce back next year.
-A Dodger Fan.
PS: not sorry that I’m not spewing brain-rotted talk radio hot taeks.
An entire season with their largest payroll ever is down the drain. Their long term outlook is trashed thanks to awful contracts handed by Preller. And your excuse is “their run differential reflect a 2nd wild card team so its just bad luck see you next season!”. Preller has been there since 2014. Not a single 90 win season. Name another exec that gets to fire 4 managers and try 4 times to build a winner
On paper they aren’t bad, but watch this team regularly and you’ll see that they should be what their record is. Tis team is the king of meaningless stats raking up hits and clean innings when the game is out of hand. But if the game is actually close or they have to comeback from any kind of deficit they look like the worst team in baseball. Xander had 2 RBIs in a month stretch from July-August batting in the 5 hole everyday. That about sums it up.
TDR
No. You can believe that story of you want to. I’m not going to believe it just because you said it.
Yes. They’ve gotten unlucky with the way their performance has been distributed this year. Yes, that leads to decreased win totals. No, it doesn’t mean it’s a bad team, or that they are chokers or whatever.
@fili 6-22 in one run games. 0-11 in extra innings. They’re chokers. And I’m a Padres fan.
You do realize that you just posted something that shows bad luck, not a team choking, right?
Here is another. In one run games the Padres BABIP is .204. The rest of the season its .301. For the entire season its .278. MLB average is .297.
In those 28 games their HH% was 44.1%, barrel rate was 9.6%, and exit velocity was 92.3 mph, ALL higher than their season averages. They hit the ball hard consistently, barreled it up at rates near the top in MLB, and their exit velocity was exceptional.
So, what does that indicate? Come on, say it with me.
I know you can get this one. I have already said it. It should be easy even for you.
Well, maybe YOU can’t.
The answer is … BAD LUCK.
As of last month they had the worst RISP number of any team ever. There has been 3,000 seasons up to this point so basically their bad luck is equivalent to a 1-3000 odds if they just got unlucky. Of course, they aren’t the worst offensive team of all time, so the numbers shouldn’t be this bad, but just to chalk it all up to bad luck is exactly how nothing changes. Something has to change in this organization. In preller’s tenure they have under performing W-L predictions by 40 games. There is an issue with process. This article goes into the numbers. letters2aj.substack.com/p/fatally-flawed
TDR
First, things that happen 1 out of every 3000 times, you know,, happen
Second, I can’t really take this article seriously. One, it compares batting average in high-leverage situations to team wRC+, which makes no sense. Second, it says, “The sample size is 786 plate appearances, that’s not small”. That is small. The “stabilization point” for batting average is over 900 PA. And that’s for a single player, not a team – which would be expected to have more variance since it depends on what player is coming up to bat.
There may be something going on with the Padres, my opinion remains with variation.
Nah, Xander, tatis, and manny are all having at or near career worse years.
Add that with the lack of being clutch and you have the record they have.
It’s like 6-22 in one run games and 0-11 in extra innings games that has killed this team. A lot from not being clutch at all this season.
Simm:
Sigh
Two things can be true
1) that those players are having down years
And
2) that this still looks like an above average team
That shouldn’t be confusing
“Lack of being clutch” is the same as “unlucky with the way their performance has been distributed” just that not being clutch has the connotation of mental weakness or whatever. There’s no reason to assume that is true.
@fili lack of performance distribution. Hahahaha.
With the exception of Kim, all of the position players that started the season with them are having below career average seasons.
Since they can’t ALL be this bad next season, I think you are right that they could win 95 games IF they are able to retain their starting pitching staff. Unfortunately Snell, Lugo, and possibly Wacha will be FA this offseason.
Next year’s staff will likely be Musgrove, Darvish, Wacha, Lugo, Avila, Martinez, and a FA 7th starter.
Wacha and Lugo are probably opting out. Darvish is cruising towards Tommy John surgery.
SD has a club option on Wacha for $16M, which I assume they will trigger. Lugo will definitely opt out.
Wacha and Lugo have pitched well enough to opt out of their player options.
There is no way the Padres pick up Wacha’s $16 million team option after his injury woes continued this season.
I would think they restructure his deal over 3 seasons with appearance incentives. Still for far less than $16 million AAV.
This is a wonderful tribute to a player with a current 123 OPS+. I’m sorry, I must be missing something here. He’s a great infielder for the Padres system having an above-average year. What else is there to say?
You miss pretty much everything, so it’s no great surprise that you missed the point of this article too.
a soulsurfer on the web. now THAT’S someone I would worry about.
Wonder if Xander regrets going to the Padres. He won’t be their SS for long from what I’ve read about their plans. He’s complained about the team since July. Sometimes the most money isn’t the best fit. This isn’t a he should have stayed with the Sox post either.
When has he complained about the team? I can’t find anything like that.
Here’s one:
si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/ex-red-sox-star-critical-o…
“C’mon, man. We’re playing the Nationals,” Bogaerts told reporters Sunday at Petco Park, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin. ”I don’t think they have playoff aspirations. I mean, they have a young team and they fight. They do fight. But I wouldn’t say anyone picked the Nationals to be in the playoffs. So, you have to beat the teams that you have to beat.”
In what way was he complaining about the team. Try reading the actual article in the Athletic. theathletic.com/4636283/2023/06/25/padres-new-low-…
He actually defended the team in the quote immediately prior to that one saying, “Lack of fight — I don’t even feel any of that. You know?” Xander Bogaerts said after an 8-3 loss. “But maybe trying to do too much might be one.”
And if you had listened to the entire interview, you would know that he was talking about his own poor play in that series after going 3 for 13 with 3 strikeouts including 2 with men in scoring position and stranding 9 baserunners. He was not talking about the team as a whole.
One more note. That was in JUNE, not July.
But keep on being an ill-informed hater. It’s a horrible look on anyone, but you make it look even worse.
Uninformed hater? Okay keep that nonsense coming. Not a good look.
Yes he has played 3B.
Lucky,
Try reading the comment before responding. Bogey last played 3B in his rookie season. That is the last time.
YOU made yourself look stupid. Don’t blame him for reading the article you posted, knowing the facts, and pointing them out.
He pegged you on the money and it’s hurts that he called you out. Just own it and be better.
@BaseballisLife “He” is you dude. Everyone already knows it. You stopped trying to be subtle about it years ago.
No offense to Lugo and Wacha but if they are your some of your best players, there is a massive problem and shows why the Padres are where they are. Unacceptable to be paying the others so much to suck. They should try and grab Craig Counsell this offseason as manager.
SOM: They aren’t really two of their best players, so…
And getting solid contributions from role players is a thing that, you know, good teams do,
Seamus, Lugo and Wacha are the Padres #4 and #5 starters. They have a 3.67 ERA and 2.85 ERA respectively.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg…
Wacha is #6 on that list and Lugo is 38th.
When your #4 and #5 starters rank that high on a list of starting pitchers, you are doing incredibly well. Especially when your #3 starter is favored to win the Cy Young.
The Padres issues in 2023 have had nothing to do with starting pitching. Preller put together a great starting pitching staff that ranks 2nd in MLB and 1st in the NL by a large margin.
I had thought to start the season the Padres were going with a 6 man rotation with Martinez in the rotation ahead of Lugo and Wacha. I could be wrong about that though.
All I can say is I hope Padres fans enjoy the 10+ more seasons from Xander Bogus. What an idiotic contract.
Oh look. MP made a dumb little nickname to try to insult a person who is, no doubt, more talented and more successful than they are.
Bogaerts is a fine player. Not “Bogus” at all.
Stupid taek culture.
He’s a fine player, but not worth those dollars or years.
Luckyh:
FanGraphs, who I trust do analyze a deal more than I trust you or MP, says that the contract was a very slight overpay.
The years on a contract don’t really matter that much. And longer contracts actually benefit the team by stretching out the value over more time which lowers the AAV.
Teams aren’t deciding between a 6 year $30 million per year contract and a 10 year $30 million per year contract. That’d be dumb. They are deciding between a 6 year $30 million and a 10 year, say, $22.5 million, contract. The two contracts should have similar present values but a lower AAV.
@fili 100 million more than the Red Sox offered him
Once he moves from the SS position to a super utility player, and if his power continues to decline, …He didn’t fare well when moved from SS the first time. I just don’t see it.
LESS than the AAV the Red Sox offered him. Apparently, they thought he was worth MORE money per season than the Padres did. Which makes sense since he had 10.9 WAR the two previous seasons for them which was worth about $92.5 million in value to the team.
Since moving to SS permanently in his first full season in MLB at age 21, Bogaerts has never played another defensive position.
He has never been moved off the position. Since August 1st 2014, every game he has played in the field has been at SS.
SN:
Ok?
Would you be surprised to know that most players take contact value into account when deciding where to sign?
@web dude, of course. Pay him until his age 36 season at a high AAV. More than fair, and generous. Give him 280 million through his age 40 season? Not many GMs besides Preller, or owners besides Seidler willing to go there.
There are two camps of Padres fans. The first defends every move the FO makes and the second is critical of questionable roster transactions. I’m in the second camp.
I’m offering you 50 million a year for the next ten years. Or 100 million for the next 4 years? Which do you choose? I think anyone who passed 1st grade math would make the right decision.
The Red Sox would have been paying him until age 37 on their final offer.
The Padres maximized the number of great players they could have on the team by extending the number of years. With the CBT, AAV is far more important to most teams than the salary per season.
There are two camps of people on this board. Those with logic and facts on their side and those that give unfounded opinions and rely on hindsight for their arguments. You are in the 2nd camp.
WTF does that have to do with anything?
Oh! NOTHING.
Pathetic take. Again.
Or should I say as usual?
SN
I guess if you think like a first grader it’s probably a simple question.
If you think like someone who has a basic understanding of finances, it might be a bit more complex.
So, before I answer, I’d like to hear your answer. And you’re reasoning
And, yes, I’m definitely expecting your attempted “gotcha” to lead to you falling flat on your face.
Websoulsurfer and filihok rely on personal attacks to justify their opinions.
Web relies on commenting from multiple accounts to “agree” with himself.
SN
Get off your high horse
Your “first grade math” comment was very much a personal attack
Now answer the questions. Which deal would you take, and why?
Also, would you go to a first grader for financial advice on hundreds of million dollar deals?
I’ll answer. I would not,
Awaiting your response
And, yes, I fully expect that if you answer you will embarass yourself
The floor is yours.
I gave facts and followed it with a well-deserved comment about your pathetic take. You STILL have not answered my questions, just come back with a whiney response.
It was $54 million more than the Red Sox offered and 3 additional seasons.
SN:
I’m still waiting for your first grade level analysis of hundreds of millions of dollar contracts
And still waiting for you to embarrass yourself when you do so.
Don’t disappoint me
Perhaps Scream_Name got detention or grounded from the internet and that’s why they haven’t come back to answer about this first grade level finance problem
Or, maybe a first grader is handling their finances and now they can’t afford internet.
Anyway, here was the question
“I’m offering you 50 million a year for the next ten years. Or 100 million for the next 4 years? Which do you choose? I think anyone who passed 1st grade math would make the right decision.”
I’m not sure what a first grader would answer
I’ll work through it, though
We first need to find the present value of those two annuities.
Assuming a 10% discount rate
The 10-year deal is worth $338 million
The 4-year deal is worth $349 million
Pretty equivalent deals, actually.
Why Scream_Name thinks a first grader could figure that out…well, two options
1) They went to a VERY prestigious first grade class.
2) They didn’t understand the problem
I’d bet on the second.
The second deal looks like the winner. Especially if I had the opportunity to make another deal after those 4 years were up. Doubly especially if I had the opportunity to make another deal with Scream_Name.
Anyone that has watched Padre baseball (self admitted not a Padre fan), can clearly see who the day in/day out MVP of that club is. Tatis has flashes of brilliance, and then when he’s not you can see him sulk and bring the team down with him. HSK muscles every at bat, has a passion for putting up a clean at-bat, and comes thru when needed – not a huge strikeout when the team just needs you to pop a single and leg out a double. He’s the MVP of this squad.
BandB:
HSK has a negative WPA for his career. Though a +1.75 this season.
He does not lead the team
It sounds as though you are just making up stories in your head.
Now, you’re likely to say something about watching games and not just looking stats. To which I will reply: how many Padre games have you, as a non-Padre fan watched? Its quite possible, though I still doubt it, that HSK has been the MVP of those 20? games that you’ve watched. But, how can you speak to the other 117?
The MVP doesn’t always mean leading the stat column. As said by another commenter, the team is the full of meaningless stats that don’t push runs in when they count against critical times when they do count. I can’t speak to 117 games, but quite more than 20, and i will take a field of half of HSK type players that come thru in clutch situations when it’s the difference between taking the lead or giving your team just a chance to make a difference. I’ve seen him do some clutch situational hitting, only to be stranded by a couple of strikeouts or lazy pop ups. Again, I can’t speak to 117, but enough to understand where they are in the standings and why.
Even after taking the first two games of the Giant series, off a team that doesn’t even having a starting rotation, they’re still 6.5 games back. (Not a Giants fan), but the Giants play with some hustle and heart, and many at the tail of their careers, without the full compliment of talent and still pushes thru runs enough to get them W’s to be (currently) in the playoff discussion. It may not last, but they’ve been in the discussion all even with the Diamondbacks huge surge to lead the season.
Last year, I didn’t think much of HSK, but watching him this year have changed my tune on him and I have been impressed much more so than the rest of the squad, save Blake Snell. I would give those two my vote for the Team MVP on both sides of the ball.
BandB:
“I’ve seen him do some clutch situational hitting, only to be stranded by a couple of strikeouts or lazy pop ups. ”
Wow! You’ve seen that, huh? I’ve seen that happen to basically every baseball player ever. So, it’s not really that amazing that you’ve seen it happen to HSK. You’re not saying anything insightful, here. It’s total meaningless fluff.
No, the Padres haven’t been very “clutch” this season. That’s why their record is so different from what was expected and is expected based on their run differential and BaseRuns stats. That doesn’t mean they haven’t been good, or aren’t good, or are gutless wonders or whatever. It just means there is a lot of variance in baseball.
@fili “haven’t been clutch” = gutless wonder, besides the games when they crush their opponents which happens less frequently than when they choke. I’m a Padres fan and this has been one of the most disappointing seasons of my life (first game was in ’85)
I really like Kim. He is one of the best defensive infielders I have seen on the Padres in a very long time. He is likely the MVP of the Padres team as he has the highest WAR by a 0.8 WAR over Tatis.
That said, here is some reality for you. His BRS% is below league average and only Cronenworth, Grisham and Bogaerts have driven in a lower percentage of baserunners this season on the Padres. In terms of BA and OPS with RISP, he is behind every starter on the team except Cronenworth, Grisham, and Bogaerts. Only Grisham and Cronenworth have had a lower percentage of productive outs.
If you are wondering who is best in BA with RISP, that would be Tatis. In OPS with RISP that would be Soto. In terms of percentage of baserunners scored, that would be Soto followed closely by Tatis.
Huh
So, Band’s assessment based on Watching The Games is wrong.
How could anyone have guessed?
I think he had a few too many brews while attempting to watch baseball.
The Padres don’t get a team MVP.
As I mentiopned in the off-season, SD had an excellent SS and a very good 2B. And needed a 1B and a DH. So what did Preller spend his money on? A SS. Moved a better SS to 2B, and moved their 2B to 1B.
Now they are 30th in OPS at 1st, and 29th in OPS at DH.
5.9 WAR vs 5.0 WAR. Kim was not the better SS in 2022. Bogaerts was. Bogaerts was also a far better hitter on a team that was looking to improve their hitting. Kim was better on defense only.
So what did Preller spend money on? The better player and better hitter.
That Bogaert’s performance sagged that much in 2023 is on Bogaerts and the coaching staff. Not Preller. Unlike you, he didn’t have the luxury of hindsight.
Who exactly was available in FA that Preller could have picked up at 1B? Not oh he should have done that. What player should he have picked up to play 1B based on their 2021-2022 stats. Here is a list of the top 50 FA. mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50… So which one?
Josh Bell? Yeah, no. And we saw how his 2023 turned out.
Jose Abreu? That turned out ugly for the Astros.
Drury? Been there, done that. He turned out worse than Cronenworth this season.
So, who are you saying they should have signed? Exactly. Preller took the best option he had and it didn’t turn out as well as he hoped, but it DID turn out better than the other options.
Who were the better options than Cruz and Carpenter at DH on the FA list based on past performance? JD Martinez. Thats it.
@web “Unlike you, he didn’t have the luxury of hindsight”
Then you go on to mention the 2023 seasons Drury and Abreu. Contradict much?
Matt Carpenter had 3 crappy years and then 128 AB with the Yankees and Preller gave him 11 million. Cruz was another horrible signing.
JD Martinez and Justin Turner were both available.
In what way did that negate my argument? It didn’t. The facts are the facts, and you didn’t and can’t answer my questions either. So, sit down. Let the adults talk.
“That Bogaert’s performance sagged that much in 2023 is on Bogaerts and the coaching staff. Not Preller.”
And you go on to say Abreu was a bad deal for the Astros. How could Preller have known that. He didn’t know Boegarts was going to have a down year.
Bottom line is we needed a 1B and a DH and Preller got a shortstop. We see how that turned out, haven’t we?
Man, that quip about me not being an adult really hurt.
SN:
You’re aware that players can play multiple positions, correct?
Just because a move doesn’t work out, doesn’t mean it was the wrong move
Do you play poker? Or Chutes and Ladders?
cream_name12 hours ago
“That Bogaert’s performance sagged that much in 2023 is on Bogaerts and the coaching staff. Not Preller.”
=============================
Bogaerts performance is not that far off from the underlying peripherals.
His BABIP is .299.
His K/W never changes.
EV and maxEV is down slightly, as one would expect from an aging player.
GB/FB is over his career, but in line with 2022.
HR/FB at his career average.
It’s not really “on” anyone. Sometimes, like with Pujols, Zito, etc., teams get exactly what they should have expected,
Dang Web. Take it easy on the pups. They are really not all that interested in what really happened. Just in their own opinions. Their “hot take”.
You expected his WAR to drop from 5.9 to 2.8? His BA from .307 to .266? His SLG from .456 to .406? His OPS+ from 132 to 108?
No. No one did including the Red Sox.
That is not the typical aging curve. Something else happened to Bogey.
Stop talking to yourself.
Something else happened to Bogey.
==========================
A decent chance that’s true. He has had chronic wrist problems for several years.
But which of his numbers really tanked, once you take his Fenway numbers off the board?
His career non-Fenway average is .270 and his 2024 average is .266.
His career non-Fenway HR/600 is 16.4 and his 2024 is 18.9.
What you are really seeing is what Bogaerts looks like without the benefit of Fenway Park. That’s still a good player, but not a great player.
FWIW, as a RS fan, I was hoping we’d re-sign him, and had $189M/7 as my number, and imo, that was still an overpayment. I am a big fan of his.
OPS+ and wRC+ take ballpark and league into account. They both tanked.
Nearly every player has a home away split that favors the home park. Its not surprising that he had a good home away split in Fenway. He does in Petco as well. 112 OPS+ at home to 95 OPS+ away.
The Red Sox were even bigger fans of his than you were, just not as much as the Padres by $54 million.
Well, we are unlikely to agree on the stats or his worth, but he’s a nice player to have on the field and in the clubhouse.
Don’t have to agree. They are what they are, the facts of the situation. OPS+ and wRC+ are adjusted for park and league which shows Bogaerts has declined greatly this season and all but a few players have home/away splits that favor the home park including Bogaerts this season while playing in Petco.
JB
Your deal has a present value of $144.6 million.
The deal that Bogaerts signed has a present value of $181,000,000
(assuming a 10% discount rate and using this annuity calculator
bankrate.com/investing/annuity-calculator/)
Not incredibly different. The extra years at the end of these contracts are much cheaper than they first appear due to the time value of money.
Yes, at the end of the contract, you are paying for nothing. But, in exchange for that you are getting the player’s best years at a bigger discount.
assuming a 10% discount rate
===========================
10% is too high.
According to the CBA, MLB uses 4% when discounting contracts. That yields $236M & $169M. Even using 7%, it would yield $208M & $156M.
But that also assumes that Bogaerts will be playing until he is 40. That’s pretty doubtful. I’ve always said that the Bogaerts contract was a $35M * 8 contract, with no one even trying to hide it.
I didn’t read the article, but how can a team that has fallen so short of expectations have an under-rated MVP?
The Preller complaints about acquiring Bogaerts usually revolve around “not needing a shortstop” and the ensuing position shuffle. But there’s a decent chance Kim will win a Gold Glove at second, Tatis will win one in right, and Cronenworth has been fine defensively at first.
The defense has been great, and the position shuffling has been a non issue.
The only question, really, is did it make sense to add Xander Bogaert’s bat to the offense? Despite the off year, the answer is still “yes.”
Bottom line-if you had to make the same decision again, would you?
The real bottom line is based on the players performance for 2021-2022, would you make the same decision again. There are no crystal balls in baseball.
So you agree, in retrospect, it was a bad signing?
Not at all. I think it was a good signing based on Bogey’s past performance.
Moving Kim was less of an issue than people are attempting to make it out to be. He played far more 2B than Bogey in the past and he was the lesser player.
If Bogey produces like he did for the Sox in 2021 or 2022 no one is even talking about the deal. Its only because he hasn’t produced that anyone is kvetching.
Hindsight is 20/20 but no one would have even believed it if you tried to say after last year that Bogey would have a WAR that is less than 50% of what he produced last season. Especially not Sox fans.
JB
“that also assumes that Bogaerts will be playing until he is 40.”
Not really. It doesn’t matter if he plays those years or not. Teams would rather pay all contacts over 10 or 20 or 30 or 50 years. Present Value is what matters most. Cash flow matters a bit, of course.
There is nothing in here about a transaction, so where is the relevance to MLBTR?
There is none. It’s just another weak attempt at statistical analysis, something that Fangraphs and many other sites do much better than this basic regurgitation of stats from a Baseball Reference page. A desperate attempt to keep eyeballs on the site with a clickbait title and to remain relevant in a changing media landscape. It’s pathetic, really.
Stop trying to be something you’re not, MLBTR.