On the final Monday of the 2023 regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Robert being re-evaluated:
White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. exited yesterday’s game against the Red Sox in just the second inning after pulling up uncomfortably while stealing his 20th base of the season. He’s expected to be re-evaluated today as the club arrives back in Chicago before their final homestand of the season. Robert’s brilliant season has been one of the few positive things to come out of an otherwise dismal White Sox campaign that’s seen them go from expected playoff contenders to deadline sellers and flirting with a 100-loss season.
None of that downturn in production can be attributed to Robert, however, as the star has combined excellent center field defense with a .264/.315/.542 slash line in 595 trips to the plate. The 25-year-old phenom’s 75 extra base hits rank second behind only Shohei Ohtani in the AL this year. With the club long since past the point of playing for the playoffs, it would hardly be a shock to see the club shut Robert down for the rest of the year. If he does miss additional time, Trayce Thompson appears to be the leading candidate to cover for him in center field.
2. Pitcher’s duel in the NL Cy Young race:
The Padres and Giants are set to play in San Francisco tonight, and the loser of the game could very well wind up mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If the Diamondbacks manage to take the final game of their road series against the Yankees earlier in the night, the loser of today’s matchup in Oracle Park will be officially eliminated from postseason contention. Given the extreme long-shot postseason odds for both San Diego and San Francisco, the pitching matchup is the more intriguing storyline to follow anyhow.
Right-hander Logan Webb will take the mound for the Giants, while San Diego will counter with lefty and likely Cy Young front-runner Blake Snell. The 30-year-old Snell is the NL’s ERA leader with a 2.39 figure with a strong 31.7% strikeout rate, though his whopping 13.5% walk rate and average of under 5 2/3 innings per start are less formidable numbers. Webb will likely find himself on plenty of Cy Young ballots as well. The 26-year-old leads all of Major League Baseball with 207 innings pitched, his 3.35 ERA is the fourth-best figure in the NL, and he sports the only groundball rate above 60% among qualified starters, with a 61.6% figure.
3. Series Preview: Astros @ Mariners
With the postseason race coming down to the wire for both clubs, the Astros head to Seattle to take on their division-rival Mariners in a three-game set that will have major implications on the races for both the final AL Wild Card spots and the AL West crown. For the division, the Rangers have ridden a five-game winning streak — including a three-game sweep of the Mariners this weekend — to the top of the AL West standings. They currently sit 2.5 games ahead of the Astros and three games up on the Mariners. Meanwhile, both Houston and Seattle are mired in the midst of rough stretches. The Astros have just an 8-16 record in September, including losses in nine of their last 12. By contrast, the Mariners have gone 5-7 over their last 12 games with a 8-14 September record.
Even in spite of Seattle’s struggles, they’ve managed to make up ground on Houston, sitting just half a game back of the Astros for the final AL Wild Card spot. The set will kick off this evening with a pitcher’s duel on the mound: future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (3.44 ERA) will take on Mariners ace Luis Castillo (3.06 ERA). Tomorrow’s game will feature young righties Cristian Javier (4.64 ERA) and George Kirby (3.58 ERA), and the series will close with a contest between Houston lefty Framber Valdez (3.39 ERA) and Seattle rookie Bryce Miller (4.17 ERA).
The Mariners have played 31 games in 24 days? No wonder they’re struggling.
I have the Mariners’ September record as 8-14 in 22 games
12-19 in 31 games? Ehh?
It’ll be Snell, he doesn’t throw a ton of innings and he walks too many guys but he takes the ball, has a lot of K’s and his ERA is a run lower. The last part is hard to overcome. The innings would matter if guys were throwing 250 innings a year still but they’re not. He’s only deficient about 20 innings so it’s not a big enough delta. He takes the race easily this year.
Agree. His Ks cancel out the walks more often than not, in game situations.
It’ll be Strider. He leads the majors in strikeouts and wins – the most important statistic for a pitcher – and has helped his team have the best record in bb.
“wins – the most important statistic for a pitcher”
There’s always one in Cy Young debate comment sections. Keep doing you, avenger65
the most important statistic for a STARTING pitcher, or one of them, anyway
No.
johnrealtime: No is right. If a relief pitcher gets a win, it’s every bit as important as if a SP gets one. Wins are what get you things. If you have good analytics but your team loses 80 games, what good are they? The last time I looked, the Braves have the best record in BB because they have more wins. Period. fWAR, ERA+, WAR, BABIP, Sierra, blah, blah, blah mean nothing. MLB counts wins to determine who gets into the PO. Nothing else
> No.
Noing is half the battle
The other half is Noing when to say when
The final half is Noing when No doesn’t mean Yes.
Wins are a team stat and a starter has little control over such because it’s so dependent on run support etc. Probably the least important stat for pitchers.
What’s that Snell? Cabo ocean waters for the Padres team.
ERA+, WHIP, and RA9WAR. Snell leads in all categories. Case closed.
31 games in 24 days? Rumors. Not facts.
This isn’t even a debate between Snell and Webb. Look at the WAA (wins above average). WAR tends to reward guys for pitching more and just being better than a AAA replacement (2 wins below average). I’m glad MLBTR finally acknowledged the Rangers exist! Fangraphs (very low on the Rangers) has them at an 80% chance of winning the AL West, especially given the Astros vs Mariners bloodbath.
On a separate note, Luis Robert’s injury is why the elites like A Rod, Bonds, Trout, Beltran, and many others don’t have more 40-40 or even 30-30 seasons. They fear injuries. It’s sad, but Acuna may eventually be told to stop stealing at some point 5-10 years down the road. Injuries suck.
In Seager: A-Rod and Bonds weren’t elites without PEDs. Cheaters don’t count. All of Acuna’s stats except SBs can be attributed to his natural ability. He’s also outstanding on the bases, but I doubt he’d have as many SBs as he does without the bigger bases. Otherwise he wouldn’t have around 70 SBs. He’d still have an impressive 40 or so.
Nope. A Rod was one of the most hyped of all time. Even if you believe the rumors that he used PEDs starting in Texas, a .358 average season, a 1.0 OPS season, snd 40-40 is certainly enough to put him in the top 2 SS of all time in my view. Bonds was a 30-30 machine and walked 100 times each season. He had 16 straight seasons with an OPS of .999 or higher and 14 with 1.000 or higher in a row. That is not all PEDs, along with fielding. They were probably top 25 or 50 of all time without PEDs. If you disagree, list guys who are better… This is not like Ortiz, who may not even have been an all star without PEDs or something.
In Seager: The shame of it is, Bonds was a great player before PEDs. So is Tatis. Bonds didn’t need to juice himself but for some reason he did. Maybe he wanted to be the greatest of all time, but he wasn’t. PEDs took that away from him. I saw an interview he did where he said his shoe size had gone up five sizes. That was in one year. At his age, I don’t think he had a natural growth spurt. If you eliminate the cheaters, the all-time HR record is 1) Aaron; 2) Ruth; 3) Pujols. I hope Bonds NEVER gets into the HOF.
Okay. One can argue Bonds isn’t the best of all time, but he is certainly top 2 of all time with PEDs. I also hope they either remove Ortiz or add Bonds because this is an embarassment. 232 walks to 41 strikeouts… nobody has come close. Give Luis Arraez PEDs and he can’t do that. Neither could Soto. We think a 1 to 1 rate is elite. Consider 8! Maybe Ruth is better, but name anyone else even close to being better than Bonds.
>name anyone else even close
> to being better than Bonds.
I think these 8 hitters were better than Bonds.
In order—
1. Babe Ruth
2. Ted Williams
3. Willie Mays
4. Stan Musial
Different era (game was much different—difficult to properly compare them to “modern” players):
1. Ty Cobb
2. Honus Wagner
3. Rogers Hornsby
4. Tris Speaker
1, 2, 1, and 3 come close possibly. The rest… meh
Position and era matter, but 3-4 are random overhyped guys from the top list. I forgot Williams wasn’t a random guy who got attention for playing in New York. I guess his 1.1 career OPS is something. I still maintain Bonds is a top 3 hitter of all time. His peak was still historical.
The 232/41 you referred to—120 were intentional. No way he gets those on the level (without PEDs). Pitchers were not intetested in facing him.
Yeah, but it was also in an era of way higher K/BB rates. See how the top single season pitcher K/BB ratios are almost entirely this century? deGrom has the all time CAREER (lol) record of 5.38, and Sale is at 5.27. In single seasons, very few guys did that before. This is for a career. Also, I’m sure he would have just hit more homeruns then. 73 would go up to 100+ in a full season of at bats, no? I’m saying top 25-50 player of all time without PEDs and top 3 hitter with, so the fact that nobody wanted to pitch to him isn’t applicable to the second part. 150 well before PEDs, though… Soto is worshipped for putting up those BB/K numbers these days
Hall of Fame pace with the Pirates, then it got weird with the Giants. He’ll get into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. He just has to buy a ticket like the rest of us.
I believe Williams played for Boston. Look it up.
In Seager: I do ‘t know why you don’t understand that PEDs are a BAD thing. It’s CHEATING. The only stats that matter in Bonds’ career is pre-PEDs. Think what players like Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Di Maggio, Mays and Aaron could have done with PaEDs. Unless every single player is juiced up, the few who did it, like Bonds, is a cheater. Marvel at his stats if you want to, but one thing is certain to anyone who knows he cheated: Hank Aaron is the all-time HR King.
Opps. I meant East coast.
But, Barry Bonds told me PEDs were a good thing…
You realize Acuna had 37sB the season before the torn acl .. he’s now a year fully recovered and showing he’s always been capable of this..
fathead: It would be a shame if someone broke Henderson’s SB records. If he had played with bigger bases, Henderson’s total for a season would have been well over 100.
> Henderson’s total for a season
> would have been well over 100.
I think you mean like 175, right?
Henderson stole 130 in 1982, 108 in 1983, and 100 in 1980.
By the way, Vince Coleman stole 110, 107, 109 in 1985-1987.
If The Braves are smart they would limit his stealing in the next 1-2 seasons. Just thinking about the mechanics of stealing with the sudden burst of shooting to second base, both the takeoff and the landing is where a player is more susceptible to injuries in my opinion
Missippi: imo these are well trained athletes. Players like Robert and Acuna have blazing speed. They want to use it to steal bases and they’re expected to. I can hear it now: “Acuna has shown he can score from first on a double, hit a lot if HRs, drive in a lot of runs and can jump to bring in HR balls, but he’s only got two SB. What’s wrong with him?”
Just because he can doesn’t mean he should. I’m looking at it long term. Keeping him productive with power. Homers and doubles should be easy for him if he avoids injury prone activities.
Just look at the Dodgers for example, they moved Mookie to 2nd to limit his defensive wear and tear. We have a range from Angels recklessness with Ohtanis use and the Dodgers Craftyness Betts; where will the Braves stand with their use of Acuna.
Missippi: I thought the Dodgers moved Betts to 2b because of injuries. Oh, and, he still plays OF a lot.
I’m wondering, was Blake Snell on the IL at the time all star selections were being made? I don’t recall.
If this is the best they have to offer, maybe the NL should just skip awarding its Cy Young for 2023.
He has a sub-2 ERA for most of the season…
His first 9 starts he had an era over 5. Since, he’s been unhittable. He does this every year. Brutal in the first half, dominant in the second. One of the strangest starters I’ve ever watched..and I’ve probably seen 95% of his starts since he became a Padre.
180 innings is the new norm. We just have to get used to it.
And who cares about walks when you lead the league in H/9
If Snell wins the CY Award he will be a two time winner while never making an all star team.
He was an AS the year he won his last cy young
Spencer Strider’s winning the NL Cy Young.
They typically don’t let you around sharp objects or cell phones where you’re kept.
Bestest PItcher Evaah in the Histories of Baseball.
de Grom
Mel hez: I have to go with Christy Mathewson: Big Six “
@Sdubs,
1st class section of commercial airliners? Agreed!
1. Snell, 2. Steele, 3. Strider, 4. Senga, 5. Webb
idosteroids: No. Webb can’t be in there because his name doesn’t start with an S.
M’s & ‘Stros will be juicy. M’s were looking like they wanted it… not as much lately though.
Houston’s veteran pitchers against the Mariners weak offense? I think the Astro’s take 2 at least.
Mariners pitchers are good, but they will face a much tougher lineup.
Melchez: I’m not looking at the whole series. I’m just looking forward to tonight’s game, Castillo vs Verlander. It’s actually going to be on national TV even though the Yankees aren’t playing in it.
How bout the royals disaster?
Houston has not looked like they want to go to playoffs or take the west. Seattle did not seem in the Ranger series. Houston had Oakland for 3 and KC for 6 and took one from Oakland and none against KC here and one or two in KC. Thought this last series at home would do something. They tried some of yesterdays game but could not pull it off. Framber started series and he did not cut it. France did not either and Brown has one good inning of three. But both teams may be hungry but which one will have the pitching and offense. Verlander and Castillo. Verlander has not helped ASTROS since returning. Castillo for Seattle not sure if has been the hype with them. But will it be an 18 inning affair and Peña win it.
It’s a shame the Cy Young is going to go to a pitcher on a non-playoff team. Steele looks like he has simply ran out of gas, amazing to me that Ross isn’t giving him at least an extra days rest.
Why is it a shame?
Because important games matter. Snell hasn’t had any pressure in over two months. Meanwhile, Steele has pitched in a pressure cooker for all but two months.
@drasco036 wait, what? Players perform differently statistically when under pressure?
Speak of that and there will be a trove of analytics folks out there with their hands over their ears and their eyes shut.
There are no clutch performers in the world of analytics, players don’t step up their game or succumb to pressure. That’s not calculable. It can’t be real!
So pitchers should be punished if the team around them if bad?
If you go to any pitchers splits, there will be a section for high/low/medium leverage… why, because it matters. Games matter. Situations matter. Playing meaningful games should absolutely matter. No one cares about garbage time stats
Just look at Dylan Cease. He would have a lot more wins but he plays on a crappy team with a terrible bullpen.
Gallen, anyone? Seems odd how he’s being overlooked. If not for him, the Diamondbacks wouldn’t even be in the WC race.
As a bonus, being the winning pitcher yesterday, while eliminating the Stankees from the postseason, was a joy to see.
Wheeler and Gallen have pretty similar numbers. Wheeler hasn’t been mentioned at all(for a top 5ish candidate) because of his poor start to the season.
sufferforsnakes: I enjoyed that, too. What’s Gallen got now, 17 wins, 1 behind Strider who, I forgot to mention in an earlier post, also leads the majors in Ks? He should definitely be mentioned along with Strider and Snell. The reason he might not win it is, once again, the media, who shouldn’t be allowed to vote for anything. When Aaron was voted into the HOF, he was 1 vote sigh of being a unanimous pick. The 1 writer who didn’t vote for him just wanted to draw attention to himself.
“…..the media, who shouldn’t be allowed to vote for anything.”
Comment of the day!
Justin Steele deserves it for pitching at the unpredictable friendly confines and being absolutely dominant.
@Slider_withcheese you make a good point. ERA+ accounts for ballparks, but that is dimensions, not the winds of the Windy City……
WampumWalloper: This has nothing to do with nothing, but Chicago got the nickname the Windy City because of it’s long winded politicians. However, being close to the lake Wrigley can be windy.
And that folks is why the White Sox are closing in on losing 100 games. Your best player goes down so you replace him with a guy hitting .160+. Great depth White Sox. Also , Kenny W ‘s trade of Burger is one of their worse.
bmann: Yeah, the Burger trade was the dumbest thing the Sox have done this season, and that’s saying a lot. All I can say is, that one hurt. GO MARLINS!!!!
Snell might walk a lot of batters but he gives up few hits. Still an excellent WHIP…..
1.20 isnt an excellent whip.. hes pitched to a lot of good luck this year to have that ERA
>Astros have just an 8-16 record in September
Wrong. Astros are 8-13 in September. FYI, here are records of the only AL teams who have not clinched a playoff spot nor been eliminated
HOU: 8-13
SEA: 8-14
TEX: 12-10
TOR: 14-8