Just over a year ago, MLB announced that Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. had been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. The announcement came as Tatis was on the cusp of making his 2022 season debut after undergoing wrist surgery in March of that year due to a fractured wrist sustained during an offseason motorcycle accident.
The news shook the baseball world, as it was the first time a star player in his prime had been suspended for PED usage since Ryan Braun nearly a decade earlier. A whirlwind of controversy surrounded Tatis throughout the 2022 campaign and in the lead up to his return to the field back in April. Since then, however, Tatis has fallen into the background as discourse surrounding the Padres quickly began to focus on their disappointing season. Down years from Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish captured most of the focus around the baseball world, as well as the strong performances the club has received from Blake Snell, Juan Soto, and Ha-Seong Kim.
Though Tatis hasn’t been at the forefront of most fans’ minds this season, we’re getting a glimpse of what the now-24 year old looks like as a player in the wake of his lost season last year. While he hasn’t been the perennial-MVP candidate he looked to be in his first three seasons as a big leaguer, Tatis has put together a radically different profile this year that nonetheless should keep him in the conversation as one of the best everyday regulars in the sport.
From his debut in 2019 until the 2021 campaign that saw him appear in his first career All Star game and finish third in NL MVP voting, Tatis was the prototypical young superstar. A shortstop with speed and power, Tatis featured the best ISO, the second best wRC+, and the third best fWAR total among MLB regulars during his first three seasons as a big leaguer. Meanwhile, Statcast indicates the youngster boasted sprint speeds and barrel rates in the 95th percentile or better in each of those seasons, clearly indicating he was elite in both respects. On the other side of things, Tatis had a significant problem with strikeouts. His 27.6% strikeout rate in the first three seasons of his career was the 19th-highest among MLB regulars, higher than the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.
Flash forward to 2023, and almost all of these things have changed. Most obviously, Tatis is no longer a shortstop; both Bogaerts and Kim have supplanted San Diego’s $340MM man on the infield depth chart, prompting Tatis to move into a regular role in the outfield. He’s played right field almost exclusively this year, with four games in center and a one-inning cameo at second base representing his only appearances elsewhere on the diamond. While Tatis’s glove may have slid down the defensive hierarchy in 2023, his value on defense has soared. Tatis was worth -10 Outs Above Average and -9 Defensive Runs Saved as a shortstop in his first three seasons in the majors, leaving him well below average at the position.
By contrast, Tatis’s aforementioned move to the outfield has seen him not only provide positive value with his glove, but become one of the best defensive players in the sport this year. Tatis ranks in the 96th percentile with a +12 OAA in 2023, a figure bested by zero outfielders and only eight players at any position this season. Meanwhile, his +23 DRS makes him the second most valuable fielder in all of baseball this year by that metric, outclassed by only Daulton Varsho’s +26 figure.
While Tatis’s defense has shown this season, his offense has taken a considerable hit. Overall on the season, he’s slashed just .257/.321/.455 in 558 trips to the plate. While that’s still good for a well above average wRC+ of 115, it pales in comparison to the 154 figure he entered the 2023 campaign with for his career. That drop in offensive production comes almost exclusively from a relative power outage. Tatis has hit just 23 homers this season, a far cry from his 2021 season where he slammed 42 dingers in less trips to the plate than he’s taken this year. His once-lofty ISO that was second to only Shohei Ohtani in 2021 has dropped to just .198 this year. That figure is barely enough to crack the top 50, putting him alongside the likes of Justin Turner and Willson Contreras rather than Ohtani and Matt Olson.
That being said, it hasn’t been all bad for Tatis on the offensive side of things. His speed is as elite as ever, clocking in with a 95th percentile sprint speed per Statcast. Meanwhile, he’s 25-for-29 on the bases, and figure identical to his 2021 total. What’s more, he’s seen considerable improvements in his strikeout rate. He’s punching out in just 21.7% of his plate appearances this year, a figure that puts him in line with hitters like Francisco Lindor, Jeimer Candelario and Josh Bell and pushes him to better than league average in terms of strikeouts for the first time in his career.
That improvement in strikeouts is thanks to Tatis posting the highest full-season contact rate of his career, as he’s made contact on 71.4% of his swings compared to 68.4% for his career entering his season. Unfortunately, he’s also swinging more than he did in his first three seasons. While he entered 2023 swinging at less than half of the pitches he’s seen in his career (49.1%), that figure has jumped to 54.3% in 2023. While that isn’t necessarily a problem, those additional swings are primarily occurring outside the strike zone: after swinging at 32% of pitches seen outside of the zone from 2019-21, he’s swinging at 36.1% of those same pitches this year. Given that, it’s hardly a surprise he’s posting the lowest barrel rate of his career (11.9%) despite a Hard-Hit rate that’s largely in line with his career norms.
Only time will tell if Tatis will be able to recapture his elite power stroke in the future by swinging less often outside of the strike zone. Fortunately for the Padres, though, Tatis remains an immensely valuable player even if his 2023 performance with the bat is his new normal. Tatis has been worth 4.0 fWAR and 5.0 rWAR this season. That fWAR figure puts him in the same ballpark as quality players like Soto, Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger this year, while his rWAR is the eighth-highest total in the NL this season. With 11 more years left on Tatis’s megadeal with the Padres, it’s surely a relief to A.J. Preller’s front office that the player they’ll be paying through his age-35 season can still play at an All Star-caliber level, even if he’s no longer be the 40-homer shortstop he was in 2021.
SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs
I’m just here for the ringworm jokes
taylor
That’s what happens when you stop using the ringworm cream…
VegasSDfan
Your defense becomes elite, your speed stays the same, and you hit 25 home runs?
Kruk's Beer League
Roids clearly make a difference here. With them, he’s a superstar, without them, he’s a star. He’s already starting to remind me of pre-roids Bonds. Great, great, player. But with a stigma.
In this scenario, he may not have hit his prime yet. But if the numbers continue this way, then roids almost certainly fueled his power. Taking one portion of his game to a level that it otherwise wouldn’t have naturally gone.
Pads Fans
If you understand steroids, you know that the steroid he got popped for is not used because its easy to detect, takes large amounts and a long period of time to build strength, and its not manufactured in injectable form anymore so the most effective usage for muscle building is not possible today. Using it in a cream form makes it worse than useless in building muscle and simply gets you popped for PED.
Tatis’ small drop in EV is more indicative of
A- Shoulder surgery
B – Hand surgeries. He had two of them.
C – Missing an entire year of baseball
Tatis might be guilty of being an idiot or listening to people he shouldn’t have, but he is not someone who used steroids to build his strength.
ck99
Look at the guy. Does he look like Bonds did when he started taking steroids? Does he look like McGuire did on steroids? If he was using habitually, they weren’t working.
rmcoon
Or it could be that nearly 1.25 years without any baseball activities means he hasn’t gotten his bat speed back yet. Let’s see what happens after an off season where he can actually work out rather than rehab.
9/12Florida
And your ops drops by 200 points
rememberthecoop
No, your ISO goes down. You lose power because you’re not cheating any more.
ck99
Or he lost power because he’s swinging at bad pitches.
rememberthecoop
Steroids add power. Otherwise, players wouldn’t risk using them. That’s a fact and I don’t have to wait to know that. No offense I get your point that there may be other mitigating factors.
JoeBrady
Your defense becomes elite, your speed stays the same, and you hit 25 home runs?
=========================
1-He changed positions, so it’s unknown if he might have always had elite defense.
2-According to FG, his speed is diminished from his first two seasons.
3-Correct, his HR production drops once you quit PEDs.
BaseballisLife
Tatis’ speed is exactly the same.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/fernando-tati…
He never played the OF for more than a few games before this season and you could tell when you actually watched games. He ran bad routes and overran balls. Scary thinking about just how good he will be next season now that he has a year under his belt and a spring training to work on techniques.
HR production was not due to the type of steroid found in his system. Its slow acting and stays in the human system for up to a year. It takes consistent use over a sustained period during intense workouts to help build muscle. If he was using it to build muscle he chose the wrong steroid. ironmagazine.com/2016/clostebol-explained/
Tatis had shoulder surgery and multiple hand surgeries and missed an entire year because of that and the suspension. Its far more likely that any deficiency at the plate came from those things and not the lack of using pretty much the worst possible steroid for building strength.
avenger65
Tatis is a natural athlete. Why he took PEDs after hitting 42 HRs is a mystery to me. Still, 23 HRs isn’t bad for a guy who sat out 80 games as well as ST. I think next year, when hopefully the Bonds method of cheating is out out of his system, he’ll once again show the kind of high level player he is. Oh, and, as far as Darvish,Machado a d Bogarts are concerned, it’s amazing how their numbers dipped after their wallets got even fatter. Not just them, but others who also signed for a boat load of money.
SalaryCapMyth
I just read the steroid article and it doesn’t say what you want it to say. It is somewhat complicated and the portion I wanted to quote to make my point is itself lengthy so I’ll reference my point with locations.
ironmagazine.com/2016/clostebol-explained/
My focus is on the last two paragraphs of the article, before references. The writer tells us that this steroid is considered weaker but it didn’t say it takes a long time to take effect but it does effect for a long time. It isn’t ideal for athletes who need heavy amounts of muscle such as weight trainers. He also mentioned how because it’s more difficult to detect (or at least used to be) an athlete might choose to use it.
Since large muscle mass isn’t really all that ideal to a baseball player, this steroid would in fact seem like a good option.
It is ALSO true that this steroid is used in some creams but then it’s also easy to see how Tatis could have that info in his back pocket ahead of time.
flamingbagofpoop
Very few of the things he posts actually support his points. He’s constantly wrong, that’s why he needs multiple accounts to comment on and agree with/defend his posts.
Pads Fans
Since my ex was a professional body builder and steroid user I am going to take this one.
I have not read that article before so I am going to pick out some things from it.
“Besides the (legitimate) oral and injectable versions of the drug (which again, have been discontinued), it’s been produced in a bunch of wacky forms that I can’t imagine are very popular with athletes”
“The intranasal spray might offer some additional protection against drug tests, as it would be rapidly absorbed and cleared. However, the trade-off is that it wouldn’t be active for very long”
“So, in the simplest of terms, what we are looking at is a form of testosterone that doesn’t convert to estrogen. While this might sound great, it’s important to note that the conversion of testosterone to estrogen actually imparts many beneficial effects, not the least of which is an increased anabolic (muscle-building) capacity”
“Unfortunately, the acetate ester, while providing a degree of protection for the drug’s first pass through the liver, isn’t very efficient”
“it can easily cause a positive result through consumption of tainted meat products.”
“In this respect, clostebol has been compared to milder steroids such as Primobolan, and this seems logical as clostebol acetate has an anabolic/androgenic rating of 46:25, while Primobolan (also acetate) has a rating of 88:44-57. To put this into context, testosterone is a 100:100. So as you can imagine, Clostebol isn’t the first choice for professional bodybuilders, powerlifters, strongmen, or anyone needing huge amounts of mass or strength”
“The former would be expected to have an active life of a few hours if consumed orally, or a couple of days if injected. The long-acting enanthate version would necessitate once per week injections, and would be virtually inactive if consumed orally.”
The one that was detected in Tatis Jr’s test was the acetate.
Moving on from the article.
This is the same drug that Dee Gordon admitted taking for 6 years in an effort to build endurance, not strength. That was its key use for eastern bloc athletes pre-1993.
Here is a little information from a more scientific paper my ex has on the server
“Clostebol is a short acting anabolic steroid developed to treat people suffering from muscle wasting diseases
Clostebol does not convert into estrogen or DHT, which limits is anabolic, or muscle-building, capacity.
It is mild in effect”
There are medications that contain clostebol to treat ringworm including Trofedermin, which is available from pharmacies in the Dominican Republic. irisfarma.com/en/drugs/trofodermin-cr-derm30g-05-0…
I can go on and on. My ex still works for me and still have most of have her bodybuilding files on my server so I could offer a huge amount of information on it from the early 1980s to as recently as last year.
A fantastic source of information on steroids is Greg Doucette, a pro bodybuilder and long time steroid user. You can find him on Youtube and quoted in more articles in bodybuilding magazines than I would ever want to read.
If you are wondering if there are false positives in testing for clostebol, this article from NIH is a great read.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33119965/
As I said, if you want to build muscle, you use other steroids. If you want to build endurance, you might use clostebol, but its hard to get, expensive, and short acting.
Pads Fans
So if few of the things he posts actually support his points it means that what he posts does it more often than you do.
Pads Fans
BTW, mostly female athletes used this drug.
BaseballisLife
Pads, must be flamingpoopforbrains you are responding to. Saw he commented but I don’t see any of his BS anymore. Love the mute function.
BaseballisLife
That is an amazingly detailed response. More than I would have taken the time to say.
The key thing is its not good for building muscle and that is what they are trying to claim he lost.
its_happening
Or he’s gaining more experience facing MLB pitching. An altered approach that many great players do.
Yeti
Fan of an east coast team here so I do not get to see him all that often, but I have to say the first time I saw him this year I thought he looked like he’d lost 10-20 lb of mass compared to prior seasons. But, I could be seeing things.
seamaholic 2
Actually I do see him a fair bit and I’d say the opposite. I think he’s gotten chunkier. Not out of shape at all, but he’s more muscular.
seamaholic 2
Not saying nothing for sure, but someone who had to stop using a supplement would, it seems to me, end up with exactly this kind of profile. He’s enormously gifted, no doubt about it. But the last few years he was hitting 430 ft bombs off-balance, opposite field. There was something really strange about it. Put his swing and his body type in a generic video, and you’d say “25 HR hitter” with a bunch of doubles and triples. Very good hitter with some all-star games, but not a hall of fame type. And I think that’s what you’re gonna get now.
davemlaw
The Padres, lol
67-77 after today.
Next season, when Machado is gone, how do they get better?
Preller has to get fired after the season, right? Right?
Gwynning
Newsflash- Machado re-signed, chief.
okbud
Thank god, confined to irrelevance in that future retirement home.
toptimrubies
where is Machado going?
Hemlock
> where is Machado going?
Sadly, abducted by aliens on May 7, 2024. Off to Kepler 186f, 490 light-years away…
JJ Putz's Soul Patch
Machado won’t be an FA until 2034. Where have you been?
Samuel
No team will take on Machado unless the Padres pay 1/2 of his remaining salary as the Mets did with their 2 guys.
He is who he is.
JackStrawb
@davemlaw why would they bother?
The Padres, 2023: 81-67 Pythagorean Record. 682 Runs, 617 Runs Allowed.
You want them to can the GM who built a solid contender just because the team has been victimized by rare, extreme bad luck?
What they can do, rather easily, is get better at 1B and in the DH slot. That’s probably the easiest assignment in baseball. They obviously need two SPs and a serious closer, which will be tougher, but it only depends on the money they have to spend.
I admit extending Darvish and Machado looked and still look idiotic. Hamstringing the club for years in order to return this group in 2024 is odd, to say the least. They’ll be old and bad soon enough, but the 2024 Padres’ needs are easy to define. It only depends on how much money they have to fling at a couple of stars, given they only need to be as good in 2024 and they’ve been (w luck neutralized) in 2023.
wallabeechamp
What a sham & what a shame. I really thought Tatis would become more than just the clown with the biggest, reddest nose in the entire San Diego clown show.
Samuel
“The Game Has[n’t] Changed!”
–
Baseball is a humbling sport. A player has to do a lot of things to help his team win. It’s not a specialized sport.
The Padres are a collection of Me-first, I-play-for-my-stats, and Look-at-me-I-did-something-good players….the same as the White Sox were recently. The national baseball media love them – falling all over themselves quoting their individual statistics…and is stumped by the teams crummy W-L record.
The team has had 6 managers since 2015, and it’s always their fault. Like Tony La Russa in Chicago, Bob Melvin – another respected, credentialed, qualified MLB manager – is being be belittled by kids that don’t understand the sport, and will take the “blame” for this collection of overpaid amateurs and misfits…..whose numbers will be added to this coming offseason.
Where’s the Fangraphs kid that will quote individual statistics and write in new-age illogic to explain why the Padres have just been “Unlucky”?
avenger65
Samuel: First, who on the White Sox would be a I-play-for-my-stats; Look-at-me-I-did-simething-good
JackStrawb
@Samuel It’s amusing, briefly, to hear people invent all manner of distorted narratives to explain plain, obvious bad luck.
You know by now we count all the things that players do that contribute meaningfully to winning, yes? No?
In any case, grit is what winners are back-explained to have when the wind carries the ball over the fence. When the wind dies, “he just didn’t want it enough,” or similar nonsense.
BaseballisLife
Every team needs a 5 WAR RF. Well, except the Dodgers and Braves. Oh, and the Padres who have Tatis.
So 27 teams other than the Padres, Dodgers, and Braves need a 5 WAR RF.
flamingbagofpoop
I think the Astros are probably cool with Kyle Tucker, as well.
HatlessPete
I hear that Aaron Judge guy is pretty good.
ChangedName
Pretty amazing how quickly he reinvented himself. He’s clearly a great talent with or without the gear.
Bright Side
It hasn’t affected his pelvic bone. He was able to knock out Rizzo for the rest of 2023.
nosake
Preller might go but I think Bob Melvin is not the right coach for this team. They need someone like Dave Roberts or Gabe Kapler. Some technician type coach who can draw out the best performances of the talent.
I as on the boobird bandwagon about Tatis after the PED discovery but he started this season pretty strong. I’m guessing he misses the action of the SS position despite the fact that he has played very well in Right. Dude has a hell of an arm.
blindsided789
These both seem like poor choices for a manager. It seems like the Dodgers win in spite of Roberts at times due to the talent they always have. And Kapler has had one good season, 2021, where every player out performed, and has been around .500 or below every other one (73-70 so far this year).
Honestly the manager doesn’t make as much of a difference as people seem to think IMO.
nutznboltz
I would never want a manager that refuses to come out of the dugout for the Star Spangled Banner.
JackStrawb
I never want a manager who thinks the Star Spangled Banner is a legitimate national anthem, non-slave state timeline.
avenger65
You never know how good managers like Snitker and Nevin are until you see a bad one. Come to the south side of Chicago if you want to watch a really bad one for comparison.
its_happening
SD needed Bochy.
ck99
We don’t want Bochy back and I doubt he would come back.
its_happening
You don’t want a winner because SD aren’t winners? Makes sense then.
Crunchtime1969
There’s a reason Bochy went to Texas and not SD. He knows the entire Padres organization beginning with Preller. He went where he thought he could win.
Cleon Jones
Only time will tell if Tatis will be able to recapture his elite power stroke in the future by swinging less often outside of the strike zone.
______________________________________________
Uh, yeah, sort of like when he was on peds? The new Tatis is a good albeit overpaid corner outfielder. Fortunately the overpaid part matters not in SD where they print their own currency.
Pads Fans
5.0 WAR is worth $45 million. I was unaware he was getting paid more than that.
Oh wait, he is only getting paid $7.71 million this season. He is a great bargain.
flamingbagofpoop
Oh wait, he’s not signed for 1 year….
Pads Fans
Oh wait, he has put up 11.6 WAR and providing over $100 million in value while getting paid $12.917 million since signing his new contract. Still an incredible bargain.
Another flamingbagofpoop comment from you. Try harder. Bring facts.
JackStrawb
Yes, no reason to count future earnings, PEDs-related breakdowns, and age-related decline.
Mercenary.Freddie.Freeman
Ryan Braun was never the same post getting caught peds.
Mercenary.Freddie.Freeman
This is probably the real Tatis Jr without the extra wink wink help….
Buzz Killington
So ringworm helps your offensive output but hurts your speed?
baseballteam
Long offseason coming up to do something reckless.
tonyinsingapore
It’s been reported that a significant number of MLB are on the juice; though the masking methodologies are so good it’s hard to get caught. TJr could go, or be, right back on the juice though more mindful and less sloppy when it comes to those “treatment” protocols…
flamingbagofpoop
Why bother, he already got paid.
Samuel
Yasiel Puig 2.0
briar-patch thatcher
Fascinating! I was thinking Manny Ramirez Lite.
Yanks2
This guy is why I don’t watch games anymore. The show boating, the lying, the deceit, the no accountability for your own actions, the smug bat flips. Too many players make it all about themselves. The game has lost its integrity
BaseballisLife
If you don’t watch games why should anyone listen to your BS about the game?
You have no integrity if you are trying to talk about what happens in games you don’t watch.
Yanks2
Yeah, I’ve never seen a baseball game in my life. What am I talking about?
Pads Fans
If you don’t watch the games, stop commenting on the sport. Knowing you don’t even watch games but think you know baseball just makes you look even worse than the ridiculous garbage you post.
flamingbagofpoop
Someone that uses multiple handles to upvote and comment on his own posts talking about someone looking bad is peak irony.
Pads Fans
Ok. If you say so. Coming from you that is “peak irony”.
Crunchtime1969
I watch every Padres game and Yanks2 is right about Tatis and his immaturity. He should humble himself and grow up. His celebrations are a bad joke. He’s on a losing team. What’s to celebrate?
BaseballisLife
Baseball is a game. If you are not having fun you are doing it all wrong.
JoeBrady
It feels like the writer is working hard to try to avoid saying the Tatis’ power is diminished because he stopped using PEDs. No PEDs = a lower EV = less HRs/FB. He’s still a fine player, but just won’t be a Bonds clone without the PEDs.
BaseballisLife
The haterade is strong with this one.
His EV is not substantially lower than it was in 2021 and the small difference is far more likely due to shoulder surgery and two hand surgeries. Both sap power.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/fernando-tati…
JoeBrady
BaseballisLife
The haterade is strong with this one.
========================
No hatred here. I was one of the first to say it was a great contract for the Padres. He’s an outstanding player.
And you could be right. But unless you are one of the people that think athletes take PEDs because they do nothing to help them, then you simply have to admit that players that give up PEDs have to get worse.
I mean, isn’t beyond discussion that players take PEDs to improve?
Pads Fans
You have not shown that he gained anything from taking PED. You have not shown that the reason for the tiny dip in exit velocity is from PED.
You have also not addressed the fact that Clostebol in a cream is useless in building strength in a short period of time. Even with consistent use over a long period of time. Clostebol is a steroid that does not convert testosterone into estrogen so it has a very small anabolic capacity. That means its terrible at building muscle. Its use was mainly for building endurance by East German athletes and only when taken via an injection. There are no manufacturers if it in an injectable form today. Haven’t been for years.
No, what Tatis did is put a cream on that he thought was for ringworm that contained clostebol. He was an idiot, not a systemic cheater like Bonds or Arod.
JoeBrady
LOL! So this is the old “gazillionaire self-medicating for ringworm” excuse? I guess anything can happen, but if I were making $25M a year, I’d pay the $25 co-pay and ask a doctor for his advice. Or call the team doctor. Or call my agent.
Pads Fans
Answer my question.
Pads Fans
Since you brought it up, he couldn’t call the team doctor. The players were locked out at that time. Another of your fallacies.
He was making $1.7 million per year at the time not $25 million. Another of the fallacies in your argument.
No matter what he did or didn’t do with doctors, the steroid he tested positive for is absolutely terrible at building muscle. It would not have helped him do so even if it was still available in injectable form, which it is not, and he used it over a long period of time. If he was trying to cheat there are vastly more effective and less detectable forms of steroids.
So, answer my question. Your take is that the ONLY explanation for the small 1.8 mph drop in his exit velocity is a steroid that is incredibly bad at building muscle? That there is no possibility that it had to do with shoulder surgery, hand surgery, and not seeing major league pitching for more than a year?
JoeBrady
Your take is that the ONLY explanation for the small 1.8 mph drop in his exit velocity is a steroid that is incredibly bad at building muscle?
========================
Of course it could be from other reasons.
But my general philosophy is that PED users (and not just SD PED users) use PEDs because it helps them hit. Why else risk a suspension?
BaseballisLife
Joe, what does anything you said have to do with what I posted? You said his EV was down. I posted Statcast showing it was down less than 2 mph and posited that the small change is more likely because of shoulder and hand surgery because both are proven to sap power.
JoeBrady
I said:
“No PEDs = a lower EV = less HRs/FB.”
You said:
“I posted Statcast showing it was down less than 2 mph ”
So we both said his EV was down. What part of you agreeing with me do you disagree with?
The entire crux of your argument is that 1) You agree with me that his EV is down, but 2) The decreased EV couldn’t because he stopped taking PEDS, because the performance-enhancing drugs he was taking didn’t enhance his performance.
Pads Fans
Shoulder surgery = lower exit velocity,
Hand surgery = lower exit velocity.
Tatis had both.
And his average exit velocity was down only 1.8 MPH. Its still elite. In the 90th percentile. 25th in MLB.
Not seeing major league pitching for more than a year also lowers exit velocity and increases swings at pitches outside the zone.
All that sound familiar?
JoeBrady
Just so I understand, your take here is that PEDs DO NOT help hitters?
Pads Fans
My take is that THE steroid that Tatis tested positive for is REALLY bad at building muscle even when injected and there is no injectable form anymore. My take is that other conditions have FAR more to do with his 1.8 MPH drop in exit velocity. Or did all that go completely over your head?
Just so I understand, YOUR take is that the ONLY reason for his 1.8 mph decline in exit velocity is steroids? That shoulder surgery, two hand surgeries, and more than a full season without seeing major league pitching had absolutely nothing to do with it?
JoeBrady
YOUR take is that the ONLY reason for his 1.8 mph decline in exit velocity is steroids? That shoulder surgery, two hand surgeries, and more than a full season without seeing major league pitching had absolutely nothing to do with it?
===========================
There are no absolutes or certainties. But my logic is unassailable.
1-Player x uses PEDs. My assumption becomes that he is using them to improve their performance.
2-Player X gets caught using PEDs so he stops.
3-Player X’s performance deteriorates. My assumption is that, when a player stops using performance-enhancing drugs, their performance suffers.
That does not mean there cannot be other mitigating circumstances, but a PEDs user no longer using PEDs has to be a consideration. It is complete denial to think there CANNOT be a connection.
Pads Fans
So you ARE saying that the ONLY reason for the small decrease in EV is PED and it cannot possibly be anything else.
Your logic is total BS.
JoeBrady
So you ARE saying that the ONLY reason for the small decrease in EV is PED and it cannot possibly be anything else.
====================================
Can you read? This is what I said:
“That does not mean there cannot be other mitigating circumstances, “
CardsnWolves
Hmmm. Power numbers down after getting busted. Looks like he’s a good but not great player. That’s why these cheaters should never be allowed in the Hall.
DarkSide830
still juiced
DUDDUS
Another year removed from surgery will do him good. I have no doubt he’ll be much better next year. Not that’s he’s been bad I’ll add.
foppert1
Lots of negative takes. Reads like the man might have done some growing up. Maybe even focussing on the team thing a bit more and getting the ball in play. Forgoing a few opportunities to bring out the “look at me” home run trot for the more humble take a single and give the next man up a crack at it. It’s not like they are short on power at the Padres. I’m thinking Tatis is the least of their long contract concerns. Good for him.
BaseballisLife
Speed is not down. See link posted above.
EV is down only slightly and that is morev likely due to shoulder surgery and two hands surgeries. See link posted above.
With the exception of the Dodgers and Braves, every single team would be better with Tatis manning RF for them and none of you would say a word if he was on your team.
He would be a welcome addition under the bright lights in NY or even for the best team in the AL.
Pads Fans
The Mets and Yankees can’t have him. He is staying in SD.
Citizen1
Alex Rodríguez was suspended in 2014, so have a few other players since so you can cut your anti brewers anti Braun swipe.
jacl
that’s one of the worst contracts ever if that’s all he can do. he’s an average player being paid to produce twice those results. didnt they have an option of getting out of that contract when he got suspended? it seems to me they did but decided not to.
nosake
I’d take Tatis any day over Soto. At least Tatis seems to care about the game.
empirejim
Cares so much he just had to cheat? Please, Tatis cares only for Tatis’s branding and trending social media,
But I Do
And where is the transaction rumor in this article? Because he clearly is not a transaction candidate with the baggage and a massive contract lasting for years moving forward. So there is no relevance here to a transactions site.
Stop trying to be Fangraphs. This is yet another trite article that just regurgitates stats from Statcast and Baseball-Reference. It’s soft analysis that is no better than your garden variety baseball site on the web.
Stick to transactions and stop with these puff pieces that make MLBTR look like a dumping ground for agents trying to prop up their players, or writers swinging and missing at statistical analysis.
JoeBrady
1-What is the point of reading an article, a long article, about Tatis when it wasn’t likely to be transactional?
2-This article is nothing like a Fangraphs article. But that said, why not write an article is that is advanced-metric friendly?
Seriously, this is like the folks that sign on to Fox News, read an entertainment article, and then complain that it doesn’t qualify as “news”. Just don’t bother reading the thing.
That said, I do agree that some of the articles appear to be too player-friendly.
But I Do
You’re right, it’s not really like a Fangraphs article, because theirs are MUCH better when it comes to using advanced metrics. MLBTR’s are superficial in that regard.
And to your point about reading the article: even if I didn’t, it still comes across my feed, so I know it exists and because I see it, I register my criticism.
Rob Mason
This is 1 of the best articles I’ve read on here that isn’t simply regurgitating numbers but instead uses high-quality stats as evidence to support a variety of points that reveals the reality of the situation. This would be the perfect kind of article on MLBTR’s premium subscription. I know exactly how to brand these and make them more visually appealing too but the quality of content is there. Keep up the great work Nick!
But I Do
lol bot