The Tigers had a very concerning season in 2022. They had entered the year with their sights set on returning to contention. A young core of prospects had bubbled up to the majors and it was hoped that big free agent deals for players like Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez could supplement them. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong. All over the roster, players either underperformed or missed significant time or both. That applied to each of Báez and Rodriguez, as well as several of the younger guys.
One of those young players that had high hopes pinned on them was Spencer Torkelson. After the Tigers had a dismal 47-114 season in 2019, they secured the first overall pick in the 2020 draft and used it on Torkelson. Due to the pandemic, there were no minor leagues for him to play in that year but he nonetheless shot all the way up to #5 on Baseball America’s 2021 list of the top 100 prospects in the league. That was largely based on his tremendous performance in college. In 129 games for Arizona State, he had 54 home runs and a batting line of .337/.463/.729.
In 2021, the minor leagues were back and he shot through them. He began the year in High-A but was in Double-A by June and Triple-A by August. He hit 30 home runs in 121 games and drew walks in 14.5% of his plate appearances, showing both power and plate discipline. His combined batting line of .267/.383/.552 amounted to a wRC+ of 148.
The Tigers added him to their Opening Day roster in 2022 and it was hoped that he would be entrenched at first base for a long time to come. But he didn’t hit the ground running, or even crawling for that matter. He hit a paltry .197/.282/.295 through the middle of July, results poor enough to get him optioned down to the minors. That performance was especially concerning since his bat has long been considered his carrying tool. Without especially strong speed or defensive skills to give him a solid floor, he essentially needs to hit and clearly didn’t do that. The power potential was still in there if you looked, as his maximum exit velocity was considered to be in the 80th percentile at that time. But he wasn’t squaring it up often enough, with his hard hit rate in the 39th percentile and his barrel percentage 37th.
He played 35 Triple-A games that summer and produced around league average, before getting recalled to the big leagues when rosters expanded in September. He hit .219/.292/.385 down the stretch, which only amounted to a 94 wRC+, but was still better than the 68 wRC+ he had before his demotion.
As mentioned, the struggles of Torkelson were just one of the many things that went wrong for the club. They finished the season 66-96, nowhere near the contender status they envisioned. General manager Al Avila was fired along the way, with Scott Harris hired as president of baseball operations to replace him as they top baseball decision maker in Detroit.
Expectations were far different for 2023, both for the Tigers and Torkelson. Many had already written off the former first round pick as a bust, even though he was still just 23 years old at the start of the campaign. He didn’t do much to change those peoples’ mind in the early going of this year either, as he was hitting just .206/.266/.309 through the end of April.
But as the calendar flipped to May, more encouraging results came. From the start of that month through the end of July, he hit 13 home runs and produced a much more respectable .233/.317/.433 line for a wRC+ of 106. He has taken things to another level since the start of August, hitting 13 more home runs in his past 43 games. His slash in that time is .248/.342/.547 for a 141 wRC+. The Stork, which no one calls him but perhaps they should, has taken flight.
For the season as a whole, his batting line of .233/.315/.444 is only marginally above league average, translating to a 107 wRC+. But the Statcast data likes him a lot, with his average exit velocity in the 88th percentile, his barrel percentage 90th and his hard hit rate 93rd. His 24.7% strikeout rate is a bit above league average, but he’s also drawing walks at a strong 10.1% clip. Given that he’s gotten better as the season has gone along, perhaps he can carry that over into 2024 and have an even better year.
Although the Tigers surely would have loved for this breakout to have occurred last year, the silver lining of Torkelson’s struggles in 2022 is that it secured them an extra year of control of his services. Since he was optioned to Triple-A for about six weeks last year, he didn’t earn a full year of service time. That means he can be controlled through the 2028 season, whereas he would have been set for free agency after 2027 if he had stayed up all of last year.
As they move forward and try to build a competitive club in those years, they still have many challenges. There are still question marks on the roster, including the pitching staff and the middle infield. But their first base situation looks to be in good shape, especially compared to where it was just one year ago.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
He’ll end up being a decent player but he’s always going to be held back by his name being Spencer Torkelson.
Mike Trout
Aaron Judge
Juan Soto
Spencer Torkelson
It just doesn’t fit. If he changed his name to Chuck Steak or Dick Powers he could put up 8 WAR seasons easily.
@sampsonite168
Change it to Duncan Ganther
He’ll be raking in 10+ WAR seasons.
His middle name is Enochs 🙂
Nucky is that you?
Chet Hammer would make him the GOAT. They couldn’t even measure WAR that high.
Harry Colon was a solid corner back.
Hammer Longballo!
2nd best name in baseball history. #1?
RUSTY KUNTZ
Ironically, another Detroit Tiger.
So basically he is an average hitter in the real world, but in a perfect world he would be much better. That tells me he is much more likely to be an average hitter moving forward because the world is never going to be perfect. Some guys consistently over-perform their peripherals and some under-perform their peripherals. Torkelson is what he is, an average bug league hitter, until he proves otherwise. Not that that is a bad thing, because an average bug league hitter is still pretty darn good.
he just turned 24
It doesn’t matter if he is 24, 29, 34, or 40. He still needs to prove himself at the big league level as more than an average hitter before he is thought of as more than an average hitter. At 24, he has a chance to do that, but he still needs to do it. We shouldn’t just assume he will do it because he is 24.
It’s true, the vast majority of superstar hitters don’t have long development curves. Pujols was a beast at 21, Trout was a beast at 20, Acuna at 19 and so on.
The Jose Batista’s of the world are the rare exceptions. If a player don’t show at least a glimmer of the potential early, it’s just not there.
Torkelson will be a platoon DH within 5 years.
Aaron Judge didn’t make the big leagues until he was 24. Josh Donaldson didn’t hit until he was 27. There are many, many more, these are the first two I could think of in recent years without Google. Torkelson is 24 and improving now that he has a decent player development team around him (remember just how inept the tigers have been at developing hitters).
Torkelson was scouted with 70 grade raw power as a prospect. He broke Bond’s freshman year HR in college. He has shown more than glimmers of potential, otherwise he would not have been a consensus 1-1. He is also going to hit 30 HR in his age 23 season.
No one said he is going to win any MVPs, but to claim that he will be a platoon DH at 29, his prime, is a rancidly negative take just for the sake of being a contrarian.
Boggs spent six years in the minors, reached MLB at 24.
First, Aaron Judge didn’t play his first professional baseball season until he was 22. All college players get a later start and then have to wait for their opportunity.
Second, he was major league ready before he got the call up. Third, he was blocked from playing time the year he was called up by Carlos Beltran.
Although you say my take is rancid, I’m placing my opinion on the fact his OPS+ since reaching the majors is only 97 against right handed pitching and 110 against left handed pitching. So far that’s indicative of a platoon hitter. If he’s a below league average hitter against right handlers, he won’t be a full time player forever. Those are facts.
Quit getting your feelings hurt so easily.
He was also blocked by Carney Lansford at that time.
Torkelson was a college player too. I don’t understand your point. Also missed a full minor league season in 2020. The point of the article is that Torkelson has improved month after month. Not that Torkelson is going to be the MVP. Not that he will be a perennial all-star. Just that we are starting to see glimpses of a player he could become. Just wait and see with him, you can’t lose patience too quickly, guys with power profiles like Tork’s usually develop slowly.
JDM was released by the Astros, before he took off with the Tigers.
He’s going to have a Tony Clark type career. An All Star game appearance. A few straight 30 plus ding dong years. Great durability. Below average defense. All around great teammate and citizen. Maybe earn 100 million dollars playing baseball.
I say he’s going to end up more like Jim Thome.. He’ll play until his 40’s+ and hit 500 HRs.
CJ Cron 30 homer power .250 hitter about a 10 year career.
Thome probably had Vince McMahon vitamin packs helping him stay in the game. Unfortunately for Storkie, the league doesn’t let that slide anymore so he probably won’t be slugging after 40.
106 OPS+… Hey, he’s a Tiger so that’s good.
Remember when guys like Miggy and VMart were in MoTown? Prince Fielder? Those were guys to get excited about watching.
106 OPS+… that’s Dave Bergman production.
he just turned 24
I think the point is more that he has improved month to month and the underlying metrics inform us that he will continue to improve.
But a 1.8 oWAR with a -1.7dWAR is a problem
DWAR doesn’t tell the full story. His range might be somewhat limited and he still has some improvements to make, but I can’t picture anyone else scooping some of Baez’s wild throws in the dirt and turning them into outs the way Tork does.
He plays 1B. He will never have a positive dWAR. No 1B in baseball will have a positive dWAR since there’s a 12.5 run penalty associated with the position.
He could grow into more. He’s only 24 years old.
CJ Abrams had a similarly bad year and a half in the bigs in that for both players they had nothing left to prove in the Minors so might as well let them figure it out at the highest level
Seems like Torkelson has really struggled against off speed stuff and mostly held his own against breaking pitches. Does seem like he takes a pretty passive approach at the plate with only a 65-70% Z swing rate.
Not a ton to like in his approach here, but not impossible he could put some things together.
Last year he couldn’t hit a fastball. This year he mashes them. He’ll figure it out. In a couple years he will be a 50 HR guy even as he plays 1/2 his games in Comerica..
He’s looking like he will be the 1B going forward, but whether he becomes the next Tony Clark, or the next Joey Votto is still undecided.
Just get that K% down to around 20% or so and he should be in decent shape for the rest of his career. All the best in your future…
“which no one calls him but perhaps they should”
Strike out a little less and get better on D and he’ll be a solid player to build around.
Yeah, the D is a bit puzzling. He actually looks great most of the time, although he lacks lateral movement like a lot of 1B’s (that’s why they play 1B). He has a strong arm and starts a lot of and 3-6-3 double plays. I’ve noticed more trouble on short-hop throws to first lately, although he was better with them earlier in the year. I haven’t seen too many of his errors, but the number of them is concerning.
He just turned 24 in late August. Would you want to be judged by your 23 year old self? I know I wouldn’t! He is trending up and his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate all say power hitter. I expect he will continue the trend of recent months into 2024 and start turning some heads.
These guys come up, when a lot of productive big leaguers are still a couple years away, and then people think they’re a bust when they don’t immediately become All-Stars. it’s crazy
He’s torking off.
, self.
I know there’s not much to be excited about for Tigers fans this year, but they have a really underrated core group of hitters shaping up there.
Tork, Greene, and Carpenter are legit hitters. Coming up soon will be Jung, Keith, and Malloy, all who can just flat out hit. There’s also some intriguing hitters that may not be All Stars, but have some intrigue. Dingler, Perez, Meadows, and Bigbie are all guys to keep an eye on in Spring Training.
They’ve also got some arms that are either up now or close to helping too. If the front office can complement these pieces with better FA signings (which might be a big IF based on recent ‘success’), then Detroit is a team I’d be buying into right now for future success.
That Bigbie kid has hit everywhere he’s been.
Should be interesting.
They still can’t find a position for Malloy. They’re giving him reps at third again. Everyone is confident that he can hit, but he has no lateral quickness to speak of, and a weak throwing arm.
Almost certain that Cole Keith will be at 2B next year, as his defensive metrics there are much better than they are at third…
@WestVillageTiger
Yeah I don’t know where they’re going to settle on Malloy ending up, but the bat has so much potential that I think they’re gonna find any way they can. I know Vierling has been getting 3B reps there, but I can’t imagine he’s a long-term solution at the hot corner. If Carpenter’s defense is improving–and with Miggy gone–DH should open up a bit more next season.
I really like the looks of Eddys Leonard too since they picked him up and promoted him to AAA.
Must be a slow news day or a relative. When I think of “taking off” I certainly don’t think of the argument made in the piece. Absolutely nothing suggests he’s taking any steps towards being even an above average player. Positive vibes are all well and good, but there needs to be something of substance to back up the claim…and it’s just not there yet.
It’s as if there’s a player profile article quota they have to meet every couple of days. The headline is always nonsensical, the analysis is middling, and always involving a player who is anything but “taking off, breaking out, has arrived, is peaking, etc, etc”.
Yup, and it never has anything to do with transactions. Torkelson is not a trade candidate, so why is MLBTR writing about them? Some payola from agents to help drive up arb salaries? Can’t imagine why they would be so positive about all these random players and writer such friendly articles.
The analysis is always just stats regurgitated from Statcast and Baseball-Reference. It’s mediocre stuff at best. They’re trying too hard to be Fangraphs.
Yet here they are making money at it while you sit at home reading what they write. LMAO
Money given to them by agents. You must be cool with collusion.
Lol what? Take off the tin foil hat and go outside my dude.
If you don’t think MLB executives read MLBTR, I’ve got news for you.
Detroit could be the next Baltimore but Harris is too dumb to get the Tiger train rolling
Really bad take. Harris is the next Theo Epstein. Just watch.
You better hope not. Boston and Chicago are large enough markets to recover from Theo’s scorched earth techniques. Detroit would have to go on a twenty+ year rebuild.
HARRIS could well be the next Theo. Much like Torkelson, he was rushed to his position and will be learning on the job, with all those learning lessons visible. Torkelson will be here for 6 years, minimum. I’m not expecting HARRIS to get that long a leash if he doesn’t improve quickly. Torkelson makes an error, it effects one game. HARRIS makes an error, it can effect a whole season (Candelario).
Spencer Torkelson is a good defensive 1B. He had a couple bad games but he’s a good 1B overall. He’s hitting as good can be expected surrounded by mostly poor hitters.
Not according to his DRS, OAA or UZR.
You have to watch Spencer Torkelson play. He’s not a klunker at 1B but he makes unforced errors in bunches during the season. When you compare him to Pete Alonso, Torkelson seems smoother at 1B while Alonso never looks comfortable in the field.
But is he launching baseballs and self?
Tigers are shaping up to be competitive in 2024 and beyond. All they’ll have to do next year is beat the Twins, and they’re not that good. Tork looks like he’s going to be a great hitter. While his defense is suspect at times, his bat is getting better and better, I could see him as a 4-6 WAR by next season. Greene also looked great before hurting himself, I expect great things from him next year.
I don’t know what happened to Baez, but he’s going to opt in and be Tigers SS for a while to come, I don’t think he can get any worse than he was this year. I predict a remarkable comeback performance from him. The guy has huge potential, it wasn’t that long ago he was great.
Tigers probably going to need to pick up a SP, 2B/3B and a corner OF. Hopefully they can make a deal for E-Rod for him to stay. There are plenty of FA’s who they can get who could play to a perfectly capable 2.0 WAR level that would make them competitive and not have to commit to any long term deals. Clark is minors prob all of 2024. By 2025 he should be ready to get MLB experience, and impactful by 2026 if he doesn’t bust or get hurt. 2026 Tigers should be lit.
I wouldn’t count on seeing Clark in the Old English D in 2025. 2B/3B next year might be Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy. plus perhaps some OF time for them. Justice Bigbie could be a midyear callup. Then you would have an OF of Greene, Carpenter, and three of the four between Bigbie, Meadows, Vierling, and Baddoo. It will start to look like a real team for the first time since they held the fire sale in 2017.
I don’t see Baddoo with the team in 24.
At this rate, he is likely the odd man out.
I think Baddoo has at least the first half of the season to show he’s turned a corner and I hope he does. I’ll take Seasonv1 Baddoo as a sparkplug any day. Meadows will also have to show he can do more than just play CF. Im not sold on him but i hope he proves me wrong. There are other OFers in AA or AAA who could take their reps if they don’t produce like Bigbie or Malloy. Even converted IFers like Wenceel Perez or Eddys Leonard could be interesting playing in the grass next year.
I see Baddoo as a non tender possibility at worst, and trade bait at best. If he could make bat to ball contact, he provides the speed the Tigers could use as a leadoff hitter. He doesn’t, though. He’s also a barely acceptable LF with no arm. Malloy will be Miggy’s replacement, because he is not an OF or a 3B. If the Tigers go after JDM or Justin Turner in FA, he may not have a place on the team.
I think Parker will have a leash as long as his CF defense is good. The bat has been as advertises (in need of work) in his first 100 PAs, but his defense has been better than expected. I think he might be the only true CF the Tigers have at the moment, If he is able to maintain this rate with the bat and this level of defense he’s be a 2-3 fWAR player over a full season.
Baddoo’s hitting still needs work, but he is a very underrated defensive left fielder as well as a good base runner. They might trade him (their outfield is getting crowded), but they’re not going to non-tender him.
Spencer Torkelson’s Day Off.
Wow, so .233 is now considered a “breakout year” by the author….although he doesn’t really have any protection in that Tiger lineup……and other than Statcast and his agent….who cares if his outs are “barreled up” or his “hard hit rate” or “barrel percentages” ……statistics that were created by agents to promote their player clients regardless of what the eyes tell you your really seeing…..he’s batting .233….kind of says it all……now he is 24 so he’s got plenty of time to improve as the Tiger organization hopes he will……
Spencer Torkelson is a power hitter. He will likely hit 30 HR this year, which while not a ton, is good for 23 year season. Hard hit rate and barrel percentage indicate that he will hit more HRs as he matures and adds strength to his still developing frame. The author means to say that the fact Torkelson has improved month to month consistently means that they think he will continue to do so as he develops.
If you look at where he was, to where he is now, it is significant improvement. He’s also gotten better as the season has gone on. His final numbers are not eye popping, but he’s moving in the right direction.
Remember the old days when a .233 meant you kinda sucked. Now its “taking off”. Times have certainly changed.
Yeah, those days when a single was as good as extra bases to your batting average have thankfully gone by the wayside. OPS. Get on base, preferably more than one base.
Times haven’t changed as much as pitchers have. Not that long ago 94-95 was elite, now it’s simply pedestrian. Not to mention spin and/or sticky stuff, pitchers have much more ammo then hitters. That’s what really has changed.
Which runway is he on?
Let’s not forget the comerica park affect!! Nothing beats a well barreled high exit velocity out to left center field!
I’ll timed article as he’s 0-9 with 5 K’s his last two games.
Unless he can cut his K rate and improve on defense, he’ll struggle to stay of league average. It doesn’t appear he’ll be a high average guy, so the power will have to carry him.
A 106 OPS+ plus is already above average and doesn’t account for the weak lineup around him
He’s already above average with a 106 OPS+ and the stat doesn’t take into account the strength of a lineup.
Kid was rushed to the majors and kept there so people could keep their jobs. Good to see Tork make progress each year. MLB executives have ruined more position players than they have helped rushing them through the minors. Risk vs Reward just doesn’t add up.
Back in August, I remember one of the MLBTR guys in a live chat was asked if Tork might hit 30 HR next year and he said he was leaning towards no due to the dimensions of Comerica Park. In the comments, I said Tork might hit 30 THIS year.
And now, he’s two away!
Lots of good stuff coming for the Tigers. And, if we were to get a 40 HR guy at DH next year, it could be playoffs! Finally!
I remember that comment. I thought it was strange that he would say Tork wouldn’t hit 30 next year when he is so close this year. Tork has had some decent hitters around him… he’s been surrounded by Greene and Carpenter most of the year. Add a couple more decent bats and they should be in really good shape. Especially if Keith and Malloy develop as hoped. I would like to see Keith take over 3B with Vierling back up. .
I think Malloy and Carpenter will spend the most time at DH next year, plus rest days for other position players.
Carpenter has really improved in RF, and has a strong arm. I see him staying in the OF. Malloy has a shot, and maybe Austin Meadows will be ready? (If still with team by spring)
When the switch turned on for Tork this season it was cool to see. Carpenter breaking out has been amazing too. Greene seems to be stalled, but he’s been injured a lot. The one that is amazing to me is Jake Rodgers. Wow ! All of the sudden Detroit has a power hitting catcher. WOW !
The Tigers of today has that early to mid 1960’s feel about it. Sure baseball has changed a whole lot since then with the F.A wrinkle to it. The time a team has to develop players before the huge costs set in is short. If you can do what Atlanta is doing by extending it from say 6 to 9 years you have a real shot at doing what teams of old could do.
They are looking very good right now. Young guys coming up, and young veterans performing well. We all know the costly moves they made before the start of last year, but it can’t make them afraid of paying more to lock guys up going forward. You can’t change the past but you can make the future better.
Hes basically an overrated Chris Carter
Except for Carter didn’t have his first full MLB season until 26. Carter didn’t hit 30 HR (29 but let’s round up) until his 26 year season. Carter struck out at a 33% clip for his career. Carter didn’t have 70 grade power. Carter was a significantly worse defender at 1B.
If you ignore the fact that Torkelson is younger, has more power, strikes out almost 10% less, and is a better defender (Tork is still a bad defender), and has success at the MLB level before Carter was even called up, then yeah exactly the same!
It is clear to anyone who has watched them play that Torkelson has way more potential than Carter.
He’s not a quitter therefore he gets my respect, keep it up Tork.
62 extra base hits 29 HR 84 RBI and all anyone wants to talk about is his (near league average) batting average, which has improved monthly. 141 wRC+ since the all star break means he’s 41% better than the average player during the same time. Great player and really coming into his own.
Small Sample Size
Next they will have a “Tyler Nevin is on Fire” thread. The guy had a good week.
Yep, that happens with young players.
I remember being in a MLBTR chat about a month ago, when someone asked the moderator (don’t remember which MLBTR writer it was) if they thought Tork would hit 30 HR in 2024. They opined that based on the line up, the home stadium it would be difficult for Tork to hit 30 HR in 2024. Hell with 2024, he is on the cusp of hitting 30 THIS year.