James Paxton returned to a big league mound for the first time since 2021, when he pitched just 1 1/3 innings with the Mariners, and remained healthy enough to make 19 starts for the Red Sox. Playing out the second season of a two-year, $10MM contract — Paxton exercised a $4MM player option at the end of the 2022 season — the 34-year-old lefty is slated to head back to the open market once the 2023 campaign concludes. Paxton tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he’d love to return to the Sox next year but hasn’t yet had any discussions on the matter with team officials.
Any such conversations figure to be delayed now, of course, with the Red Sox seeking a new baseball operations leader following yesterday’s dismissal of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. General manager Brian O’Halloran remains with the team and is pairing with assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira and Michael Groopman to oversee matters in the short term, but the Sox also announced yesterday that O’Halloran would be offered a new role within the baseball operations department.
Paxton’s season officially drew to a close earlier this month when Boston put him on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right knee. While there are more than 15 days remaining on the schedule, it was announced at the time of that IL placement that Nick Pivetta will be replacing Paxton in the rotation for the remainder of the year. There’s no indication that Paxton’s knee is a major issue, but he apparently needed more than a minimal absence and won’t make it back to the bump this year.
As such, Paxton’s season drew to a close with 96 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. That’s hardly a dominant showing, but much of the damage against him came in the three short starts preceding his placement on the injured list. Paxton carried a 3.34 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate through his first 16 starts (86 1/3 innings) before being tagged for 16 earned runs on 18 hits (four of them home runs) and 10 walks in a span of just 9 2/3 innings.
Paxton’s injury history is about as extensive as you’ll find among established, active pitchers. He’s had both back surgery and Tommy John surgery in the past three years alone, also missing varying lengths of time due to a forearm strain, a hamstring strain, knee inflammation and a flexor strain — all just since the 2020 season alone. That said, his upside is notable as well. A healthy Paxton misses bats at a high level, limits walks and home runs, and induces grounders at a least a league-average clip. From 2016-19, he tallied 568 innings of 3.60 ERA ball — highlighted by a 2.98 ERA in 24 starts during the 2017 season with Seattle.
Whoever takes over baseball operations in Boston will need to address the rotation in some capacity this winter. Returning to the fold in 2024 will be oft-injured Chris Sale and a slew of less-experienced arms like Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. Of the bunch, Bello is the only one who’s had a full, productive season in the rotation. Pivetta remains under club control as well, though he’ll be due a raise on this year’s $5.35MM salary and could be non-tendered or moved in a change-of-scenery swap. Keeping Paxton would maintain some continuity and add upside to the group, but his injury history has always made him feel like a bit of a tough fit with a Boston rotation mix that features so many other question marks. That’s not to say he can’t or won’t be brought back in the end, but the Sox will need to add additional stability even if Paxton is re-signed.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I do think Paxton was a good gamble. I would sign him again if the price is right.
DBH1969
@D&B…
Doooood!
No, lol. Just no, man. We’ve had enough of the Emergency Room Brigade. Take his time here as a win and move on!
mlb fan
The Red Sox have to draft and develop solid pitching the way Seattle has. Until they do this, adding guys like Pax will only result in 4th and 5th place finishes and being on the fringes of playoff races.
DBH1969
If the new PBO comes out and says right off the bat, “2024 isn’t it, 2025 is our target, I want to ride the new kids and see who has a growth sprout on the farm”, then ya, bring on the likes of Pax. I am game.
I don’t care if 2025 is the target, just don’t lie to us about it.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
If he is a starter beyond #5, what issue would there be in that? The guy gets a ton of k’s. If we didn’t have his August record, we would have a totally different story here.
At times this guy was the ONLY dependable pitcher in our rotation in 2023
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
At times this guy was the ONLY dependable starter in our rotation this year
DBH1969
I see your point. I guess as a #5 if the Sox can’t pick up 2 solid starters or a long arm lefty if they get 2 or 3 would work. But like you said, for the right price.
But I think your point about Pax being the only dependable guy says more about the state of the rotation than Pax.
Boxscore
No thanks.
rocky7
Amazing how walk years seem to bring out the bulldog in players looking for a new contract……this guy gets hurt walking out of the shower looking for his shower shoes…..buyer beware……
Dorothy_Mantooth
The Sox need to do better this offseason than just bringing Paxton back. I believe they need to add 2 quality free agent pitchers to next year’s team. I’d love to see them sign Jordan Montgomery (battle tested in the AL East) along with the Japanese phenom, Yamamoto. If they want to bring Paxton back on top of this then by all means do so.
With the firing of Bloom, it sounds like the Sox are sick of losing so they need to go big this offseason in free agency and in the trade market as well. The upcoming free agent class is pitcher heavy, but if the Sox can trade for an established, young starter then maybe they only need to make 1 big free agency signing for the rotation.
Lastly, the need to address 2nd base as well. I’m guessing their long term plan includes Mayer at short and either Story or Yorke at 2B, but they can’t punt on the position again this year. Maybe one of the young kids can earn the job, but they have to get more offense out of that position. They haven’t had that since Pedroia.
miltpappas
They’re in baseball’s toughest division. They have to say screw the luxury tax and start signing “good” players. Not necessarily superstars, but start going Kohl’s instead of Ocean State Job Lot the way Bloom did. And, if they’re not at or near the top next summer, deal the soon-to-be free agents. I think that’s Boston fans’ biggest issue is the way Bloom held onto players who were fleeing.
JoeBrady
Wow, first time ever I am giving Milt a +1.. Skirting the luxury tax was a fine philosophy, until everyone blew up the cap. I agree with Dorothy as well, that we need Yamamoto and Monty.
But if we adding at least $40 to the payroll, we won’t be adding much of anything.
vinc3nt3
This is the money making Red Sox Sox. Forget about Kohls. They need to shop at Sax 5th Avenue and get themselves a reliable and top-of-the-rotation stud guy. You know the Yankees won’t be worried about $$$$. Time for the Sox to smartly spend some $$$ too.
DBH1969
@ Dorothy, I think Bloom intended to play Ceddanne at 2nd. I hope that plan gets crushed now that Bloom is gone. Enough with the out of position idea. Ceddanne can play short, so maybe move Story to 2b? He does well there.
No need to add to the outfield, Yoshi, Dougie, and the 2 pups out there.
If anything, I would sign a GOOD 3B, move Devers to DH and put everything else into the rotation.
What do you think?
whyhayzee
I feel like the new person is going to have a lot to sort out with this team. There’s talent on the cusp but it’s tough to measure on small sample size. I like Wong, Casas, Story(2B), Devers, Yoshida, Duvall, Turner, Duran (healthy), and think they should get a shortstop. Let the young guys play, too, but I’m not convinced yet. It’s the makings of a decent lineup.
Pitching is equally hard to sort out. Bello, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowski all have good arms but need to be in the right roles. Beyond that it’s a crap shoot. They did ok with bullpen pickups but need some lefties who can consistently contribute.
I think next year is transition but 2025 could be when they are back competing for the crown.
DBH1969
@why, we gave another shortstop… ceddanne plays short and CF. And Mayer ready in 25. What we need is a 3b, Devers to DH
whyhayzee
@DBH, is Ceddanne as good at short as in center? If so, then you’re right, he can play there. The bat would be a plus, defense comes first, in my opinion.
DBH1969
@why… Ceddanne plays a good short, but his JBJ type elite in CF.
But With Yoshi, Dogie, Abreva, and Duran filling out the OF next year, they could do as I posted earlier: Ceddanne/Story at SS/2B, Casas at 1st, Deverz to DH. we only need somebody good to play 3rd.
ALL other effort to the rotation.
Sox can make a run in 24 i think
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – I think and hope next year will begin with an OF of Duran, Yoshida and Abreu along with a middle infield of Rafaela and Story.
Hopefully Story can have a good start to the season, so he can be traded when Mayer is ready.
This coming offseason the big money should be spent on pitching.
JoeBrady
I think Chapman is worth a lot less than MLBR thought, but I assume his price has come down. I would at least kick the tires on him.
stymeedone
Have you looked at what’s available at 2B in free agency? Good luck with that.
Just because Henry fired Bloom, doesn’t mean the purse has been opened. Henry is still there, and is the one that sets the budget.
DBH1969
@Stymeedone. Ceddanne to short, Story to 2b. Middle infield all set
Fever Pitch Guy
stymee – The Sox are projected to have $92M available to add to next year’s payroll, that’s plenty of money that can be spent and still stay under the threshold.
Jake Biggar
Brother you hit the nail on the head with this post. I have been saying Yamamoto/Nola AND Montgomery!! Or trade for an arm too.
Goose
Paxton and Jensen are the perfect examples of why Bloom deserved to be fired.
The Red Sox needed a closer. Bloom says they were going to compete. They came out of the lockout and Jensen for short money. The year after Bloom signs Jensen for two years at the same yearly rate the Braves paid for one year.
Why didn’t he sign Jensen coming out of the lockout for three years? It wasn’t like it was costing you more money and the Red Sox needed a closer.
With Paxton Bloom sat on his hands at the trade deadline the last two years. By doing nothing he believed it wasn’t worth making moves to go for it. Paxton was having one of his best and healthiest years
Why not deal him at the trade deadline and build up your farm?
Bloom seemed to fly from the seat of his pants from year to year. There didn’t seem to be a plan beyond build the farm through the draft.
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
Who’s Jensen?
Fever Pitch Guy
Mango – Jackie Jensen, rightfielder.
dave frost nhlpa
Talks about what? Not pitching I hope.
Mikenmn
Paxton has been a starter his entire career. He’s pitched in ten seasons. he has a total of 850.2 IP, and has been over 120 in a season just four times. He has zero ERA title-qualifying seasons. He unquestionably has talent….but is this a guy you want to spend a lot on?
DBH1969
No
Joe says...
Since the Sox fired Bloom, who would he even talk to?
DBH1969
The GM
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – The Red Sox don’t have a GM.
They do have O’Halloran and 3 Assistant GMs.
Can you imagine, THREE assistant GM’s?
In my best Oprah voice ….. “You’re an Assistant GM, and you’re an Assistant GM … everyone is an Assistant GM!”.
outinleftfield
No GM = no talks?
DBH1969
There is a GM and 3 asstistant GMs. The GM will be moving to a new position once a new PBO is in place, but until then it is him and his 3 amigos
outinleftfield
I didn’t know that. He is so invisible that I had no idea that Bloom was not the GM.
DBH1969
That’s the new way now. Since GM’s can’t lateral move to other organizations while under contract without permission from their current owner, what you and I think of as a GM is now PBO.
Joe says...
DBH are the Sox planning on promoting the GM?
DBH1969
I don’t think so. From what been stated in the Boston Globe (owned by Henry) is that he is being moved to a different position in the ops department.
Kind of a non-demotion demotion. It’s Boston, we’re not allowed to call things what they are anymore o.0
B-Cap
Resign him on a one year deal if you can. This team needs lots pitching and DH named Otani.
okbud
Good, thanks for your service Pax. You have us hope for a while I appreciate it.
luckyh
Any deal would have to be low $ with loaded incentives. He just can’t stay healthy. Good guy though.
Troy Percival's iPad
Offer him 8 million Do9ecoin. If he says no, let him walk
DBH1969
Fine, but any options have be done is Shib
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – Go with shares of Tupperware, they are at a discount price right now.
Paleobros
Big news: no talks!
Fever Pitch Guy
paleo – I’m waiting for the next Red Sox article, which will be “Abreu has not been offered a longterm contract”.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Paxton might have tons of “upside”. It he’s just what he appears to be.a guy with flashes of brilliance but no consistency in health or performance.
I’d give him 1 year/$4M w/ a $4M buyout on an $8M option if anybody signs him.
ray1
Cubs will offer the qualifying offer, but they won’t try to re-sign Bellinger.
DBH1969
@Ray1. Does he take it?
css 2
Baffling why he wasn’t moved at the deadline when his value was at the highest it had been in years.
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
Yet another reason Bloom was fired
Fever Pitch Guy
Mango – Not trading Paxton is something I can’t fault Bloom on.
Hard to move an old injury-prone starting pitcher with known knee inflammation that coincided with a steep drop in performance (2nd half 6.98 ERA and 1.775 WHIP).
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
If you believe Carrabis, there were legit talks about him going to the Dodgers that Bloom pulled out of because he didn’t like the prospects being offered
Fever Pitch Guy
Mango – Did he say when?
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
Fever- at the deadline. He said that Rosenthal picked up on it as well
James Midway
Hard to do without a GM.
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
Sorry, we already have an injury-prone lefty starter under contract for 2024, but thanks anyway!
Fever Pitch Guy
Mango – My thoughts exactly, only one Old & Injury Prone rotation spot available for next year, and Sale has it locked up.
johnmuzzy89
Everyone forgets it all about pitching. Rebuild the pitching staff first. Then take care of the rest. If they can move on from Sale they should They should have done that after 2018.
Fever Pitch Guy
John – No sense in selling low on Sale, the Sox are stuck with hoping he will rebound next year.
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
He’s only got one year left and the team has some money to spend, might as well keep him and say goodbye after 2024. Long as the team is able to land an ace and a 3, 24 will be fine
Nobby
Color him gone. There is no way the new GM signs this guy given his injury history. I see him going to the Rays.