The Red Sox announced that left-hander James Paxton has been place on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 7) due to right knee inflammation. In other transactions, Boston called up right-hander Nick Robertson from Triple-A Worcester and activated righty Garrett Whitlock from the bereavement list, while left-hander Joe Jacques has been optioned to Triple-A.
The timing of the IL move means that Paxton’s 2023 campaign is over, as Red Sox manager Alex Cora told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier and other reporters that Nick Pivetta will take Paxton’s place in the rotation for the remainder of the season. Paxton will finish the year with a 4.50 ERA over 96 innings, as well as a 24.6% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate that were both above the league average.
Considering that injuries (including a Tommy John surgery) limited Paxton to only six games and 21 2/3 total innings between the 2020-22 seasons, just getting onto a mound and making it almost the entire way through the 2023 season counts as a significant achievement for the southpaw. A Spring Training hamstring injury delayed Paxton’s debut until May 12, but he pitched well over his first four months before seemingly starting to wear down during August. Paxton was tagged for 16 earned runs over his last three starts and 9 2/3 innings, putting a sour end on what had been a solid year.
The Sox had already planned to push Paxton’s next start back a few days, but since Cora implied that Paxton’s knee had been bothering him, the team has opted to shut the lefty down rather than risk any further injury. While Paxton hadn’t been contributing much in his last few outings anyway, the IL decision also seems to hint how the Red Sox might be slowly turning to look towards 2024 rather than the wild card race, as Cora implied in today’s meeting with reporters. Boston is seven games back of the last AL wild card slot, and with just a 72-70 record, finishing above .500 is no guarantee for the Sox, let alone a playoff berth.
The outcome might lead to some hindsight about Boston’s decision to keep Paxton at the trade deadline, as the Rangers (and likely several other teams) had interest in the left-hander prior to August 1. For the second straight season, Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom opted to both buy and sell at the deadline, though this year’s Red Sox club was closer in the race than the 2022 edition. The very streaky nature of this year’s club also makes it understandable why Bloom didn’t swing too hard in either transactional direction at the deadline, and since the Sox were already hurting for pitching, it makes sense why the team would’ve wanted to keep Paxton as a key piece of whatever late-season push might have been in store.
With Paxton’s 2023 now over, it is possible he has also thrown his last pitch in a Red Sox uniform. He is set to hit free agency this winter, and it will be interesting to see what kind of deal Paxton could land as he enters his age-35 season and on the back of a year that saw mostly good results when healthy. Assuming this knee problem doesn’t develop into anything serious, Paxton could have a case for a multi-year agreement, though teams will likely prefer a one-year deal with vesting/club options (maybe similar to his previous deal with the Red Sox) given his lengthy health history.
The anti-Cal Ripken Jr
Maybe the Sox can actually win a game now. Ahahaha!
NYC – The Sox need to go at least 6-11 to improve on last year’s 78-84 record.
Considering their remaining schedule, that’s a big ask.
Paxton to the IL, and all is right with the world, again.
Paxton just can’t catch a break.
He usually gets a tear, strain or inflammation 🙂
His last three outings haven’t been so good so I think he’s shutting it down as to not further his Decline and hopes for a nice contract this winter. Smart man. You can’t blame him, season is over.
Could it be that he’s been pitching with a bad knee thus finally placing him on the IL? I find it difficult to believe that competitive pro athletes will so easily throw in the towel as you’ve alluded to.
You’re right and I agree, but there’s varying degrees in pain tolerance and damage is there not? If the Red Sox were in the Wild Card hunt I don’t believe Paxton would have called it a season if the degree of injury would have allowed him to continue to pitch.
I thought you knew this?
Whatever the reason, glad he’s shut down for his own health. Numbers can lie in that he had a very good year but wore down. I also respect the club for going for the wild card spot. No second guessing (at least not from me).
Dewey – Most people believe the Sox not acquiring pitching at the deadline was indicative of them NOT going for the WC. The players and media certainly felt that way.
They didn’t go for pitching because they had three guys coming off the IL very soon after the deadline.
Acquiring bitching would have cost prospects and a log Jam at the same time.
They thought they had reinforcements. Can’t be an armchair quarterback. Glad they learned from last year and are under the threshold.
Gary – Since your post included “bitching” I felt compelled to respond. LOL!
Ryan Yarbrough was acquired for very little and has since put up a minuscule 0.911 WHIP in 26 innings.
Moll was acquired for very little and has since put up a 1.08 for both WHIP and ERA.
Civale was acquired for very little and has put up a decent 4.29 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with his new team.
Stratton has been brilliant since being acquired for very little, putting up a 2.59 ERA and 0.822 WHIP.
Montgomery was also acquired with Stratton and has put up a very respectable 4.20 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Hicks was acquired for very little and has put up a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for his new team.
I could go on and on. Before the trade deadline, Bloom polled the Red Sox players and the response was unanimous – they wanted pitching help. They knew Sale, Whitlock and Houck would all be big question marks because of health concerns and the amount of time they missed.
Bloom totally lost the clubhouse when he lied about making additions to help the team make the postseason this year. All you need to do is look at how well the team was performing leading up to the trade deadline, and how they began to collapse shortly after learning there would be no pitching acquisitions.
dewey – Since Sale’s return, he’s made 6 starts and lasted just 27 combined innings with an atrocious 5.53 ERA.
Since Whitlock’s return he’s pitched in 7 games and has a 5.68 ERA.
Since Houck’s return he’s started just 4 games, lasted a combined 19 innings with a 6.05 ERA.
Granted the team defense absolutely sucks, but still there’s no logical reason for Bloom to think the return of those three pitchers would be enough to get the Sox into the postseason.
Even if all three had pitched effectively, starters lasting less than 5 innings and relievers being used for just one inning a week obviously won’t cut it.
I agree. Sometimes bones break or things get torn. But a lot of time, when you see someone struggle, and then go on the DL, they probably always had some type of issue that probably continued to get worse until they couldn’t ignore it any more.
Was bound to happen sooner or later
Death, taxes, and……..
I wonder who won all the office pools around Boston?
Assuming anyone believed he would remain healthy until September
Mango – He remained healthy until late July, then he kept pitching with pain in his knee.
google.com/amp/s/www.bostonherald.com/2023/06/24/w…
It’s funny how many people scream about the Sale contract and yet advocated for them to spend 20m annually on Paxton. He’s just never been durable man. Ever.
Mango – Those people are just biased against Dombrowski and in favor of Bloom. That’s why they criticize only the Sale contract.
just biased against Dombrowski
=====================================
More nonsense. I am one of the few who defended the Sale extension. But the folks who criticize have as much support, or more, than the pro-Sale people do.
He had a 5.88 ERA in his final 9 starts and went on the DL on 8/13. Like I said, I had no problem with the extension, but to act as if there is no reason to dislike the extension is pretty silly.
Joseph – How could you possibly miss my last sentence? That’s 50% of my entire post!!
My point was obvious, anybody who criticized the Sale extension should have also criticized the Paxton contract. But many of the Bloom suckups have criticized just the Sale extension.
I happen to be one of the many who criticized both, and rightfully so.
1-It seems like your assumption is that every time someone makes a post critical of the Sale signing, he must also criticize the Paxton signing. That makes no sense. Why not say that anyone criticizing the Sale signing must also criticize the Panda signing?
2-Comparing the Paxton signing of either $10M or $14M for a 1.2 fWAR, to a contract that has cost us $116M for a 1.9 fWAR is beyond ludicrous.
I like Sale well enough that I’d ask him what his number would be for 2025/26.
But to state that the only reason to criticize the Sale contract is because one does not like DD is crazy talk.
Joseph – Your assumptions are horribly illogical. I expect people to show their disapproval of the Paxton contract only when the subject is brought up. There have been numerous times when I expressed my displeasure with the Sale extension, and never brought up the Paxton contract.
Where did I say the Paxton contract was worse than the Sale extension? That extension was easily the worst thing Dombrowski did with the Red Sox.
As you know I’ve been a big believer that Sale will return to prominence, but I’m losing faith in his ability to do so. His performance since returning has been abysmal.
I didn’t state what you claim I stated.
The right knee issue has been known for at least a month. No sense in trying to pitch through it now.
The book on Paxton’s Red Sox career is now closed, $14M spent for 19 starts and just 96 innings of 4.50 ERA pitching. Not exactly a good investment by Bloom.
Sadly, it’s actually a better line than I thought it was.
$10M not $14M. He made $6M last year and then triggered his $4M player option.
I actually think his contract was roughly neutral value. Not a good deal, not a bad one
Josh – Check out the luxury tax salary column, you probably missed all the prior discussions.
spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/james-paxton-14341/
Fever, looking at your link I’m not any less confused. I guess I don’t understand the workings of the luxury tax number versus his salary for the year number. So he was paid $10m and not $6 million last year? Okay but how it’s shown on the link doesn’t make sense to me.
You must have another source for that information besides this link? I’m not asking for it and it really doesn’t matter, I’m just saying this link doesn’t Square it up for me. All good.
I do see his 4 million salary for this year because he picked up his option.
Gary – Salary is cash flow and it’s part of the terms of the contract but the league assesses the entire value of the contract and the years of the contract and assigns a Luxury Tax number to the contract in form of an AAV or Average Annual Value of the contract. it’s the luxury tax number that matters when assessing fines for spending too much money on payroll in any given year..
Sale has modified his contract to help with the cash flow for the next decade but his AAV. must remain the same based on the official league ruling when the contract was written. It’s confusing and many of the financial sites don’t clarify the difference between annual salary and AAV or Luxury Tax payroll.
Gary – Plenty of sources state he signed a $10M 1-year contract with a $4M player option for 2023 if the Sox declined the team options.
google.com/amp/s/nesn.com/2022/11/red-soxs-james-p…
Okay thanks guys. So he was paid $10 million the first year and not six. Okay got it.
Fever, he was surprisingly the best starter by far until his knee injury (or due to tiredness from not pitching). This team had no shot to be competitive this year without Big Maple who surprised expectations. Last year was a waste of $$ but Paxton staying with the club in 23 made the deal a wash in my book. I have nothing but respect for him.
Dewey – Without question Maple was one of the two best, along with Bello, until the knee injury. But it was still an overpay.
Fever, I wouldn’t have given the deal then but it turned out ok and as a two year deal, I don’t care about the $$. The longer deals bother me. Panda was an overpay, Hanley was, the Same re-do was.
*Sale
Thru 8/16, he was 7-3 with a 3.24. An odd stat, but the RS were 1-7 in his no decisions, despite him having a 2.81 ERA in the no decisions. It feels like he was a little unlucky. It’s a shame. He still has a live arm, but it would be tough to make a commitment to him.
dewey – With all due respect, that $10M payroll hit last year put the Sox over the threshold. At the very least, Bloom could have and should have structured the contract in such a way that the majority of the contract would hit this year instead of last year. Like for instance a $4M salary hit for 2022 and a $10M player option for 2023. Because Bloom knew a lot of money would be coming off the books in 2023.
He simply botched the payroll last year, badly. Maybe if he hadn’t spent so much time on all his dumpster diving acquisitions and transactions, he wouldn’t have lost track of his payroll.
I’m not sure you can say his sox career is closed. The sox are still projected as pitching poor for 2024.
He may return next season.
GASox – I don’t think the Sox can go into 2024 with both Sale and Paxton in the rotation. Too much of a combined injury risk.
Fever – injury risks leaving the roster compromised havent stopped bloom before. And I’m not sold on the rumors of Henry looking at other options. Not yet anyways.
Let’s look at what we do know:
– short on pitching
– lack the spending capacity to shop the higher end of market
– lack promotable farmlands for the rotation
– aren’t going to like the prospect cost to do much horse trading.
That leads me to believe you see a couple of options that have warts – pick a mix of make-good, rehabbing, advanced age, rebound candidate, failed former top prospect, NRI competing in ST. Beyond that?
I suspect we get a better read around the end of the season and start making guesses. Then the front office questions are gone, we see who finishes the year healthy, does houck barely limp to the finish line, so on so forth.
It was a lot easier in the old days when we only had to worry about the NYY signing someone. Now it’s also the NYMs, Philly, LAD and SDP, and probably TX.
According to COTs:
James Paxton lhp
signed by Boston as a free agent 11/30/21
22:$6M, 23:$4M player option
That looks like $10M to me. $10M for a 1.2 bWAR sounds about right for a FA. There are lot contracts worse than that.
Joe – Most people care about the impact to the luxury tax not cash flow. Here are the 3 transactions for Paxton with their dates:
Nov 9 2022Exercised a $4 million player option for 2023
Nov 8 2022Boston (BOS) declined a 2 year, $26 million option for 2023-2024, conveying a $4M player option
Dec 1 2021Signed a 1 year $10 million contract with Boston (BOS)
Luxury Tax amount in 2022 was $10 MM
Luxury Tax amount in 2023 was $4 MM
Actual cash flow thanks to the funky contracts was $10MM.
Fever and I both consider the AAV established by the contract that goes against the salary cap as the relevant number because it impacts the other spending that is allowed during that year. If we looked at cash flow, then Sale’s numbers would be significantly less than $25.6MM per year because he changed the terms of the cash flow to give Boston a longer time to pay him. His actual cash flow in 2020 was only $20MM and the same for 2021. His contract ends in 2024 but his cash flow extends 5 years beyond 2024.
So Paxton’s cost to Boston for 2 years was truly $14MM vs the CAP.
Since bWAR is a fabricated number your evaluation of it is meaningless.
His stats have been listed and they were mediocre and his number of starts for two seasons was roughly 1/3 of what a normal player would be expected to produce. It was a gamble like Story and after two years like Story it wasn’t a successful gamble. As I mentioned, for me it was a shock Paxton pitched as much as he did and as well as he did in the 19 starts he mustered in 2 years.
I agree there are a lot of contracts worse than his. The two biggest are Devers’ and Story’s. Yoshida is a close third. Bloom has struck out when it comes to big contracts. He passed on superior players and signed players not worthy of their price tag. The irony of it all is that he spent over the $30MM higher CAP in 2022 and near the $230MM CAP in 2023 and his team didn’t produce a .500 record during that time period. For me, that’s complete failure especially coming off the 104 games over .500 that DD produced in a similar 4 year period..
Troll: I am so glad you brought up Yoshida’s contract. Totally over spent on him and didn’t need him. I been arguing that from the moment they got him. He is a good hitter , but the fielding is suspect ( another DH) . How many DH type players do you need .
If they didn’t have Devers I would have a different outlook on Yoshida
Tremendous post!
B dog – Completely agree. It’s not that I dislike Yoshida or Turner or Schwarber or any of the other DHs that Bloom has brought in. They so desperately need to improve the defense that ANY DH is an unwelcome sight. It’s an excuse to not move Devers.
Dog – Of course you are correct that Bloom totally overpaid for Yoshida, but I’d rather he overpay for good players instead of totally wasting money on bad players. Jansen and Martin were big overpays too, but they performed well the few times they actually pitched.
I think Yoshida will have an even bigger season next year, after getting the first year transition out of the way. And he plays LF, which is one of the least important defensive positions.
Whenever the manager of any team anywhere needs to find a position for a poor defensive player, where does the manager usually stick the player? Either LF or 1B, the two least important positions on the field.
The bigger concern is Devers at 3B, he cost the team another run last night by botching a doubleplay ground ball. Cora is simply incapable of motivating Devers to work on his defense. Perhaps the new manager can make Devers’ defense a top priority, as it should be.
Didn’t know Paxton was off his last stint on the IL.
You seem like a very knowlegeable fan.
Sox need starting pitching so badly.
Don’t get your hopes up. If Bloom keeps his job, Lorenzen is about as high as the Sox will be willing to go regarding free agents.
Rsox – Last offseason i posted often how Senga was the #1 guy Bloom should target. He never seriously targeted him.
Now it’s Yamamoto the Sox need to target. Forget Ohtani, open the wallet for Yamamoto.
open the wallet for Yamamoto.
======================
I agree. But there is no telling what some of these teams will pay.. And we really need two SPs. I like Monty or Gray, if we could keep the contracts short.
Uh…EVERY team needs starting pitching so badly! Never seen so many starting pitching rotations in MLB be so decimated by injuries like this year.
Brooklyn – It’s a trend that won’t change, the mishandling of pitching staffs that is causing the dramatic increase in injuries.
Fever – Pitching injuries are on the rise because players who can’t throw the ball over 90 MPH have been taught techniques to raise their velocity and these techniques have brought on an epidemic of Tommy John surgeries.
There is a reason not many people threw 95 and above for the first 100 years of baseball. You had to be a genetic mutant (like Nolan Ryan) to have the elasticity in your tendons to stress them to such a level and not have them break. TJ surgery changed all that. It opened the door to put unheard of pressure on your tendons in hopes of the big pay day if you succeed.
In the good old days, kids threw in the sandlot daily and their arms got conditioned to large volumes of throwing from a young age. The throwing was condition not full stress throwing. Now young pitchers work on their velocity from age 6 through high school so their parents can hope for them to hit the holy grail and the family can be secure for eternity.
The new focus on velocity at young ages rather than conditioning is a big source of elbow problems. One of the boys that played little league with my son is now an MLB player and the two of them were the hardest natural throwers at age 8. By 12 the other boy, whose father was well connected in baseball, was throwing 5 mph hour faster because he had access to newer facilities that trained pitchers to throw harder and my son was a third generation pitcher who used the old techniques of long toss, drop and drive, finishing your pitches using a towel and weighted baseballs.
My son’s friend had TJ surgery in HS and then again while he was in the minors. He was lucky that he had a sudden growth spurt that increased his size and strength in his junior year of HS. At a time when steroid masking was growing due to the crack down in 2004 I saw many high school pitchers bump their velocity by 10 to 15 MPH. Most of them went under the knife after a year or two.
I don’t believe teams are mishandling their pitchers as much as pitchers are willing to do things they shouldn’t do for a few extra MPH on their fastball. My son’s friend is now in the MLB as a reliever and has made over 10 million dollars by his 30th birthday. He’s a fairly obscure reliever who has had 2 TJs and seems to be hurt every other year. He had the same tendency as early as little league. His arm was frequently sore and I assumed it was from the professional workouts he was participating in to develop velocity.
So when you see all these injuries I think it all comes back to greed. When a kid who isn’t all that good in school sees an opportunity for big bucks by using things like steroids, HGH and facilities that train players to raise their velocity by stretching the tolerance of your tendons then injuries are going to result. Coaching staffs can monitor their activities to some degree but their agent who gets a cut of the money is the guy driving the player to add the velocity to make more money.
This is a cultural problem because the compensation of a baseball player is extraordinary even if they aren’t a 1%er. The compensation for pitchers needs to be tied to their appearances and health as much as their performance to limit the risky activities promoted to the player by outside influencers like agents and family members. Until that happens, I think the trend will continue and injuries will continue to grow.
My son’s friend is now in the MLB as a reliever and has made over 10 million dollars by his 30th birthday.
=============================
That’s it in a nutshell. No one forces them to throw faster. Everyone wants to make their elementary school team, then their HS team, travel teams, college, etc.
Who wouldn’t want to do so? If I were a AAAA pitcher hoping to make a pro team, darn right I would be will to risk throwing out my arm.
Joe – You are right. The money changes everything. When I was young elite players were making $100,000 not $40MM. My pursuit of an MBA made sense under those circumstances but if the money was what it is today I’m sure my career path would have been drastically different. Executives in the 70s made more than most if not all top baseball players.
Now average players are making as much as an executive by their first contract after their control years. Big difference in life choices over the last 50 years. My father played in the 30s and I find it amazing how similar his choices were to mine despite over 30 years in separation in age but my sons who are 30 years younger than me had a completely different financial incentive than my father or me. I can’t imagine how much more it will grow before my grand children are challenged with similar life choices. The money is absolutely crazy for those of us who remember Curt Flood and his break through and the impact in financial compensation for players.
My pursuit of an MBA made sense under those circumstances
==================================
I remember my MBA. Some 18 year old HS kid from Brooklyn got just gotten a $10M contract, and the press was whining that he should’ve gone to college instead.
My response was that I was about a week away from getting my Masters, and I did it at night, and did really well. But if someone had put $10M on the table, I’d have scooped it up, left the school, and never looked back.
IRT Flood, I remember when Yaz got that 3-year $500k contract, and it looked like a fortune.
Awesome post, thank you!!!
I ‘REALLY don’t get not trading him at the deadline, and I said that back then as well. His value never would nave been higher.
If they’re trying to make the playoffs don’t you think they’re looking to acquire guys like this rather than trade them away?
I thought you knew this as a seemingly very knowledgeable fan?
Are you joking? They didn’t have a realistic chance of making the playoffs and Paxton is a free agent.
They only kept him to make delusional fans like you happy.
Happy now?
So wait, Gary thinks it was smart to hang on to Paxton?
And he’s saying that out loud?
Yeah, man, ThEy WeRE TrYinG tO MakE thE PlAYoffS.
Don’t you get it?
Makes sense to me, No sense in trying to build for the future when you can hang on to an injury prone free agent.
Sinister. Spot on Crete the illusion ! He should have been traded . Basically they should have traded all the players that were up for F/A . I would have dangled Jasen ,Martin and douggie out there too. Get something instead of sitting idle
Yes Icon I’m saying it out loud and I’ll double down on it. You’re trying to make the postseason you don’t trade away a starting pitcher who was pitching like James Paxton was. Are you kidding me? I guess I’m on Island by myself and that’s fine.
Sinister Joe you counted them out of the race at the trading deadline? Wow.
I was fine with them taking a shot, so long as it did not compromise our existing farm. We were 2.5 behind TO. Some folks actually look forward to a little brawling. Just for fun:
LAA had a worse record than us and committed to a run.
SEA had a worse record than us and are currently in the WC slot.
The Cubs had the 9th best record in the NL, and decided that they were contenders.
I actually enjoyed the little run. You can’t always lie down.
Umm, yes. And I was right.
Wow.
You were not right then. You guessed right and it turned out right now. But two and a half games out at the trading deadline is not “out of the race and call it a year.” Ask any baseball fan. So I disagree with you on this one. Wow.
Pitching, pitching, and, hold it……… pitching is what Boston needs… a blind man could see this
Absolutely, and they have money to throw at it as well. It’s also what almost all the other clubs desperately need too.
Lucky – Today was the 91st game this year that a Red Sox starting pitcher didn’t pitch beyond the 5th inning. No other team has had that poor a performance by their starting rotation. Boston needs starting pitchers more than any other team, especially if Winck and Whitlock and Pivetta remain in the bullpen.
Fever – Excellent stat!!!
Joe mentioned the other day that we need AAA depth and I tried to explain to him that his desire to fix the situation was genuine but his recognition of the problem was incorrect.
The farm system has been excellent despite all those foolish people who believe in the marketing hype of rating systems. It’s never about potential it’s about ACTUAL RESULTS and Boston for over a decade has had excellent results.
When you look at the 2023 pitching staff you have to ask the question
Why didn’t Bloom get more quality starting pitchers and use the farm system graduates in the traditional role of relievers so there wasn’t a AAA depth issue? Because his expertise in roster construction is lacking.:
Here is the opening day pitching staff according to the front office:
SP 1 – Kluber (Broke down after 2018 season and hadn’t recovered)
NOT a #1 SP on a team contending for the AL East title
SP 2 – Sale (Hadn’t pitched full time since 2019 and is injury prone)
NOT a #2 or #1 SP until he proves himself and stays healthy
SP 3 – Pivetta (A #5 SP at best based on time in Boston)
SP 4 – Houck (Solid #3 SP if Cora would stop putting him in the bullpen)
SP 5 – Crawford (Farm hand who slots in as a reliever and spot starter)
SP 6 – Paxton (An injured SP who like Kluber is unproven in recent years)
If healthy he is a #3 SP
SP 7 – Whitlock (An injured farm hand who slots as the stress inning guy)
CLOSER – Jansen (Excellent closer)
Righty Relief – Martin, Schreiber, Brasier, Z Kelly, Winckowski and Ort
Martin is the only standout but Schreiber and Winckowski have potential
Too many right handed relievers
Lefty Relief – Bleier, J Rodriguez (injured)
Needed to get a left handed comparable late inning guy to go with Martin
16 pitchers with 3 on the IL
This is an ugly group of relievers and several farm hands being forced into the rotation since Bloom didn’t fill enough spots with FA pitchers that possess recent successful experience
THE PRE-SEASON CONSTRUCTION OF THE PITCHING STAFF WAS A DISASTER so it’s not surprising the pitching kept us from competing.
On the hitting side it’s just as ugly:
C – McGuire and Wong (greatest plus is cost) ACCEPTABLE but not good
1B – Casas (future all-star) EXCELLENT sooner than expected
2B – Arroyo (Big hole that needed filling) DISASTER
SS – Hernandez (Complete joke of a fielder/hitter and very expensive)
HUGE DISASTER and a double edge sword that cut the team on offense and defense
3B – Devers (All hit no glove DH at 3B. 2023 price was fair but not 2024!)
A TOP HITTING 3B with NO GLOVE.
LF – Yoshida (OBP guy who can’t field and costs a lot for his skills)
A GREAT OBP guy with NO GLOVE.
CF – Duvall (Streaky hitter with power forcing future star to the bench)
DURAN proved to be the future at this position. That frees up money for the huge holes elsewhere
RF – Verdugo (League average guy who starts fast and finishes slowly)
A COMPLIMENTARY PLAYER who provides slightly higher than league average results so he’s NOT A LONG TERM SOLUTION.
DH – Turner (Great bat but very old)
GREAT HITTER being contacted by AARP. Probably good for another year or two.
UT – Refsnyder, Tapia and Chang (Weak depth but cheap!!)
Typically back-ups should be farm guys working their way into the line-up but Bloom cleared out the DD farm guys and replaced them with slugs that aren’t as good.
For me Valdez, Dalbec and Duran should have been the bench opening day.
Maybe 2024 can be a year where the GM actually fills out the starting rotation with viable quality pitchers. The good news is the farm hands have transitioned from relief to starting to fill the lower spots.
SP 1 – NEEDED
SP 2 – NEEDED
SP 3 – Bello
SP 4 – Houck
SP 5 – Crawford
SP 6 – Pivetta
SP 7 – Sale (can fill the #1 or #2 spot if healthy and back to being Sale)
CLOSER – Jansen is back so that’s great
Set-up men besides Martin, Winckowski and Schreiber the other spots need to be reworked.
It’s actually easier to fix the pitching than the defense and hitting. Too many bad fielders will have to play in 2024 unless deals are made that move Devers to DH, Yoshida to another team, Verdugo to another team, The young OF is very exciting and I think Rafaela, Duran and Anthony will be an outstanding outfield with a low cost so other areas can be fixed without exceeding the CAP..
Think about the future line-up and it’s costs remembering that these are DD guys who were to be part of the post 2022 roster:
C – Two cheap alternatives
1B – Casas dirt cheap who can be signed long term early
2B – Yorke down the road so for now an inexpensive quality defender is needed
SS – Story for now is expensive but Mayer will be inexpensive for years
3B – Someone who can field and hit. I’d get Arenado with all the excess money the team will have in 2024
OF – Rafaela, Anthony and Duran – Very inexpensive for years
DH – Devers (very, very expensive)
I like the future offense a lot and again it’s a carryover from the DD years not Bloom so the players are quality players not cheap players.
Boston for over a decade has had excellent results.
===================================
We just haven’t. The last time we had an excellent farm was when Theo was in charge.
Bello looks very good.
Casas looks good, but he is also just a 1B.
I’d like to see a full season from Duran before passing judgement. He is better than I thought, but the K/W is still troubling.
Crawford has flattened out a lot since the end of June, but that might also be innings related.
Houck’s troubles against lefties might move him to the BP, but that might be okay.
That’s 10.7 bWAR this year. That’s maybe the same as the NYY, which isn’t good, and behind the rest of our competitors.
Joe – I’m confused why your perspective is so negative on the farm system.
Lets start with the historical data about the
GM and/or HOBO (Head of baseball Operations):
Duquette – 1994 to 2002 – 8 years
Port – Interim in 2002 – less than a year
Epstein – 2002 to 2005 – 9 years across two stints
Cherington – 2005 to 2006 = 4 years across two stints
Epstein – 2006 to 2011
Cherington – 2012 to 2015
Dombrowski – 2016 to 2019 – Almost 4 years
Bloom – Late 2019 to present = A few games short of 4 years
Here is a list of Red Sox players who made the all-star game, the GM and whether they were acquired or drafted
2023 –
Kenley Jansen – ACQUIRED by Bloom
2022 –
Devers – 2014 home grown signed by Cherington
Bogaerts – 2010 home grown signed by Theo
JD Martinez – 2018 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
2021 –
Devers – 2014 home grown signed by Cherington
Bogaerts – 2010 home grown signed by Theo
JD Martinez – 2018 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
Eovaldi – 2018 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
Barnes – 2011 Draft – home grown drafted by Theo
202o – No all-star game
2019 –
Betts – 2011 home grown drafted by Theo
Bogaerts – 2010 home grown signed by Theo
JD Martinez – 2018 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
2018 –
Betts – 2011 home grown drafted by Theo
JD Martinez – 2018 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
Sale – 2017 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
Kimbrel – 2016 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
Moreland – 2017 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
2017 –
Betts – 2011 home grown drafted by Theo
Sale – 2017 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
Kimbrel – 2016 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
2016 –
Big Papi – 2003 ACQUIRED by Theo
Betts – 2011 home grown drafted by Theo
Bogaerts – 2010 home grown signed by Theo
Kimbrel – 2016 ACQUIRED by Dombrowski
JBJ – 2011 home grown player drafted by Theo
Steven Wright – 2012 ACQUIRED by Cherington
Please note how many were Home Grown vs ACQUIRED by GMs
HOME GROWN 12 selections
-JBJ(1), Betts(4 for BOS & 3 for LAD), Bogaerts(4), Barnes(1), Devers(2),,
ACQUIRED BY Dombrowski – 10 selections
– JDMartinez (4 – every year), Eovaldi (1 and 1 w TX), Sale (2 including starting the game for the AL in both appearances as a Red Sox plus 5 w CWS), Kimbrel (2), Moreland (1)
ACQUIRED BY Theo –
– Big Papi (1 and 9 more prior to 2016),
ACQUIRED BY Bloom
– Jansen (1 and 3 more with LAD)
ACQUIRED BY Cherington
– Wright (1)
A high frequency of home grown all-stars is fairly uncommon. The most successful franchise in baseball this century basically graduated Betts, Bogey and Devers from their farm system to appear in multiple all-star games. JBJ and Steven Wright were flukes or one year wonders.
It is important to note that Bogaerts and Devers were international signings and ONLY Mookie,Betts was a perennial all-star who was drafted (5th round) not signed as a free agent.
In 2023 both Casas and Duran prominently improved their games. Both could be future all-stars AND Casas was Dombrowski’s first round pick in 2018 so that would suggest he will be the greatest pick in the draft for over 20 years if he becomes a perennial all-star!!! Duran was a 7th round pick in the same 2018 draft and could follow a path similar to Mookie in that expectations weren’t as great as they were with Casas but he’s fought through adversity to accomplish far more than most later draft picks.
These facts tell a completely different story than what you suggested. The farm system under DD was excellent, the draft picks under DD were better than Cherington and possibly comparable or better than Theo’s despite Theo’s tenure being more than double Dombrwoski’s.
It’s too early to evaluate Bloom’s draft picks. All we know is that he had better drafting slots than his predecessors because his MLB teams failed significantly more than his predecessors. I hope his choices turn out great for the next GM to use them.
FYI… Theo’s long tenure of 9 years is split and claiming his farm system was better is really not meaningful because you don’t qualify which years. Yes Betts and Bogaerts came from him in 9 years and Devers came from Cherington during his 4 year window but that’s only three players. So Theo is ahead 2 to 1 over Cherington and DD’s guys are just now establishing themselves so it’s too early and Bloom’s guys won’t establish themselves for many years.
I don’t see a definitive difference across the GMs except in ACQUIRED talent. Dombrowski was by far the best at acquiring all-star talent while keeping under the CAP. His 10 all-star appearances in 4 years by acquired talent dwarfs the other GMs. That’s why the success rate of his teams are the highest by far as well.
Ironically, DD got fired for winning the most and providing the greatest profitability the organization has ever seen. You really have to wonder how a group of successful owners could make such a monumental mistake.
Joe – Want to know how WRONG you are about the Red Sox farm system pre-Bloom?
Here’s one of many articles about the MLB farm systems of the 2010’s (the 10 years prior to Bloom’s arrival).:
mlb.com/news/mlb-top-farm-systems-of-decade
The Boston Red Sox had the THIRD BEST FARM SYSTEM IN MLB FROM 2010-2019.
And that’s not based on worthless projections, that’s based on players that actually came from MLB farm systems in the 2010’s.
In other words, it’s based on RESULTS.
ROTFLMAO!
I said that we have had very little contribution in 2023 from our farm. So you post:
“In perhaps the biggest Draft coup of the decade, Boston stole Mookie Betts in the fifth round in 2011. The Red Sox had several other late-round finds who drastically exceeded expectations, including sixth-rounder Anthony Rizzo, 17th-rounder Josh Reddick and ninth-rounder Travis Shaw. Their international department did quality work as well, landing Xander Bogaerts, Yoán Moncada and Rafael Devers.”
So you listed 7 names, 6 of whom are no longer here. Seriously, I gave you the names, so I did 75% of the work for you.
So I will give you a simple exercise. Add up the WAR of the control year players on our team. Compare that to the other teams in our division. Are we better or worse. And, just to reiterate, only guys currently playing on the RS. Clemens, Lynn, Fisk, etc., don’t count.
I have to ask this question. In 2018 after they won the World Series was any Fan on here like ( O that’s good / No big deal) because I am really concerned about the farm system so I can’t really enjoy this ? It’s not like a Jeff Bagwell type player got traded for a Larry Anderson type player.
Dog – I remember JoeBrady was furious about Dombrowski trading Buttrey and Jerez for Kinsler, but he’s not a fan so I guess that doesn’t count.
How does the timing of the IL placement mean his season is over? A 15-day IL stint would end September 22.
His season may indeed be over, but it isn’t due to the timing of the IL placement like the story says.
Mark is one of the less sloppy writers on here, but nobody’s perfect.
His season is over. espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38369487/red-sox-james-pax…
Your link has no new information. It’s the same Alex Cora quotes as above.
Your comment has no new information either, but it didn’t stop you from commenting.
J
Gary seems very invested in James Paxton, a man who will never pitch for the Red Sox again.
I’m commenting on your information. I don’t need new information. You’re making an assertion and I’m saying you’re blowing air and nothing more.
Yes, and now I; ‘m commenting on your comment saying I’m blowing air and nothing more.
When you respond to this please explain your motivations.
It’s so interesting
If you had read the entire article that you provided, plus the article above here in this post, you would have seen the exact same information so why bother providing your link? That’s all I’m saying.
It’s reading the same stuff twice. It’s a waste of time.
You can’t see this? That’s why I’m here to help. You’re welcome.
You stop being rude and I will stop being rude.., fair? Unless you like this then keep it rolling, I’m game.
The Red Sox are invested in James Paxton. He’s on the payroll and on the roster. Sure, today’s news suggests he’s done for the year. But he wasn’t done a month ago or a month and a half ago. What are you even saying?
Your logic is off base.
Gary – Here is another posting from CBS.
Paxton was supposed to start on extra rest Tuesday against the Yankees, but he has now been shut down for the final three weeks of the 2023 regular season due to lingering knee trouble.
He is still eligible to come off the IR before the last game but the Red Sox have officially shut him down so that won’t happen..
Paxton was a $14MM risk in 2022 and we got 19 starts for the money with a 4.50 ERA and 1.313 WHIP with 7 wins and 5 losses. His ERA+ was 102 so he performed at league average and he missed roughly 41 of his expect 60 starts for the two years. Bloom knew he would miss so hopefully that was weighted into his decision on the money paid him. Based on the average salary of $7MM per year I’d say the contract didn’t kill the team but it also didn’t help it. Pitchers with his numbers were available around the league the last two years but Bloom has always bought 2 pitchers at $10MM who are league average rather than getting one pitcher at $20MM who is above league average. That’s why the team is .500. The talent level is too low based on Bloom’s formula for player acquisitions.
Personally, I was shocked that Paxton did as well as he did this year. So for me, he was a bullet avoided because we didn’t completely waste all the money paid to him like I thought we would.
I appreciate your comment. When you sign starting pitching there’s so many guys that want 15 million, 20 million per season and it often does not work out.
Signing James Paxton for what they did was a reasonable risk in my opinion. No long commitment and not huge dollars. Perhaps the thought was he would get them through this year as a third or fourth starter and provide that type of productivity.
With this winter coming up and the extra money available on the books I’m really not sure who you go for on the starting pitching front. The Japanese guy fever talks about? Senga sure has worked out for the Mets so perhaps? We’ll see.
Glad I’m not the gm. Can’t see signing a 40-year-old for 30 million a year and crossing our fingers. That’s why I believe a team should draft pitchers in the first couple rounds and build the field in other ways.
Gary – If only it was that easy to get good pitching. Early draft picks at pitching are typically riskier than hitters. Then consider whether the pitcher is in college or high school and it’s even harder to find the 18 year old SP that is going to develop into a star pitcher without at least one TJ surgery or other unexpected issues. College SPs are more reliable but they are closer to the majors so the time spent in the minors is at least 3 years shorter so the farm coaching staff has less time to make successful adjustments to improve the pitcher..
For me, I believe you need ex-pitchers in your organization to improve the pitching over time. Chris Young is the new GM in Texas and he did ONE thing that has made a huge difference to their pitching staff. He hired Bruce Boche who brought along an excellent set of pitching coaches from his days in SF.
Boston had Farrell and he came with some issues but he knew how to work with elite pitchers so he was a good manager for the MLB level but the farm system didn’t have comparable quality pitching coaches so as you have pointed out the Red Sox haven’t had many home grown SPs. Guys like Groome are taken by the GM thinking they will turn out to be aces but somewhere after they are drafted SPs seem to get derailed in the Boston organization. For me, that is one of the biggest changes needed. Better pitching coaches in the farm system to ensure high draft picks develop into top of the rotation pitchers.
Ok yes, good points. All the different elements put in place equal better odds at success. Ex pitchers and people who know pitching at the major league and minor league coaching levels.
It’s a little more than just drafting quality starting pitching. As you say, how often do those guys work out anyway? Good stuff.
The Red Sox were lucky to have him go this long without missing a lot of time. Since Bloom did his infamous ‘do nothing’ strategy he should have offered up Paxton while his value was high. He might have gotten one or two above average prospects. Now he will probably do nothing in the off season but will overpay Paxton because he thinks he can replicate this season.
Anything this guy did was extra this year, as no one knew for sure if he would be back. Glad we got to see him pitch.
He did a great job. Which is exactly why they should have traded him at the deadline.
I would agree with you, except for the fact that he was really out only reliable starting pitcher at one point in the season. We actually needed him out there just to build consistency.
What they needed to build was a team for 2024.
Paxton alone won’t get you that. Bloom needs a better plan, plain and simple
Stupid not to trade him at the deadline. Standing pat was the only wrong decision and bloom did it.
Tang – The owners of the Red Sox also own NESN which is the TV network that covers the Red Sox. I wonder if the owners have told Bloom not to trade away ‘name’ players in order to keep TV ratings higher than they would be if the Red Sox were to wave the white flag. I would be more inclined to watch if the team featured a lot of rookies the last month or two, but that may not be ownership’s opinion.
Bloom also was told to trade Mookie Betts by ownership. The new guy did not come into the organization and say, “Let’s trade a future Hall of Famer”. One of Bloom’s interview questions was, “Tell us how you will maximize trading Betts and David Price and his $96,000,000 contract”!
He wouldn’t have gotten substantially much in return
JC – You may be over thinking the not trading Paxton mistake by Bloom.
Boston’s profits are huge. Viewership on NESN is one contributing factor to the cash cow that is the Boston Red Sox. Believing viewership would drop seems unlikely because if they truly believed that would happen they would have marketed the daylights out of showing off of all the young talent and like you many, many people would have tuned in to see guys like Rafaela and Anthony. The game results might have been worse but does it really matter if you finish 6 games behind the last playoff spot or 12?
Paxton didn’t get dealt because deadline dealings is not a skill set possessed by the current GM. He’s experienced 4 deadlines and has failed four times. 2023 was no different than the other 3 deadline inactivity or misdirected activity. I guess we should be thankful he didn’t go out and get yet another DH!!
Bloom will look for bargains at the Winter Meetings. This is a trend he does. Bloom blew it at the trade deadline by not picking up pitching. He is terrible the last two years at trade deadlines. Every team needs pitching and I have no confidence in Bloom picking up good pitching in free agency. I have no confidence in Bloom straightening out this train wreck he put together. The errors this team makes look like a Bar Softball League team. Unless Henry gets rid of Bloom it will be the same train wreck next year. All he does is look for bargains at below market value.
Bloom blew it at the trade deadline by not picking up pitching.
===========================
Who would you have picked up? I liked Giolito, but he has a 8.02 and is 1-7. I liked Monty, but he is only 2-2 with a 4.20. Scherzer is 3-2 with a 3.63. Flaherty is 1-2 with a 7.16. Lorenzen is 4-2, but with a 5.23.
Who were you hoping that Bloom would pick up?
Joe – Point of clarification…. What players did in other organizations is not a reflection of what they would have done in a Red Sox uniform so your 20/20 hindsight is faulty. We’ll never know how well a Scherzer, Verlander or Giolito would have done in a Red Sox uniform.
The point is why not try to make chicken salad out of chicken ………
Joe – I already answered that question up above, plenty of pitchers could have been had for cheap. Bloom didn’t even try, he lied.
You’re doing an exercise in picking out a few guys that have done well, but that you would not have wanted on 7/31.
The ERAs of the guys you listed:
Hicks 3.67
Stratton 4.19
Yarbbrough 4.24
Moll 4.54
Had Bloom acquired those guys, your reaction would be “we just acquired 4 guys with an average ERA of 4.16?”
This is standard fare. Same with most of the critics, you will look at a universe of 30 names, and look for the maybe 10 that worked out.
I will be honest and tell you the players I wanted: Giolito, Lopez & Monty. Giolito has gotten shelled, and Monty & Lopez have done okay, but probably not worth their cost.
Verlander ? Lorenz how about anyone?
Lorenzen has a 5.23 ERA with the Phils. Verlander has a 3.86/4.61 ERA/FIP.
Joe – They had a 0.00 ERA and WHIP with BOS!!! I for one would love to have either Verlander or Lorenzen signed up for 2024. Both would be even better because if Bloom is still employed in Boston we’ll never get as good a pitcher as either of them.
Joe as a math guy you know small sample sizes are not necessarily meaningful so give both pitchers a year with the team and lets see if they are better than Kluber, Paxton, Wacha, HIll, Perez or any of the other star pitchers Bloom has acquired in the last four years. We need our young guns to be slotted in the 3 thru 5 slots in the rotation not the top 2. We need to acquire the top two for next year unless Sale is healthy and Sale again.
Joe Brady: Going to kind of agree with you on this point. I don’t think there was anyone they could have picked up that was going push them over the edge. They weren’t built well from the start of the season. On the flip side of the equation . They weren’t built well for jump street. So how about trade some veterans for some prospects ? Maybe more fans will buy into his rebuild. What’s the logic behind bloom sitting idle?
Exactly, they weren’t winning anything…obviously.
Bdog – Completely agree the 2023 season was toast. I felt it was from opening day after all the talent was let go and I was right that the talent drop off made this a .500 team at best.
I would have liked to add Scherzer or Verlander for 2024. We are going to need more SPs in 2024 so why not guys that may be near the end of the road but have a quality career so a drop off still makes them better than 95% of what’s available and the contract is only for 2024.
Bloom is cheap and short-sighted. We need a GM who isn’t afraid to get quality players at high costs because we are sorely lacking in all-star quality players. Heck, even Devers didn’t put up an all-star quality year and next year his pay goes up $14MM per year and his errors won’t be going down unless they buy the scorekeepers a yacht or something.
As of today, the 2024 team has a fork stuck in it just like the 2023 team did prior to opening day. Sure Casas and Duran and Rafaela are exciting potential improvements but Devers at 3B is still a bummer, Story at SS isn’t exciting unless he remembers how to hit, Yoshida in LF is a nightmare but a solid OBP guy. Not one top of the rotation SP on the books unless they fire Cora and Sale gets to pitch like he prefers to pitch not the Cora way.
Great young talent exists thanks to DD! More great young talent is on the horizon thanks to Bloom but there are no stars and you don’t win without stars.
Troll: excellent comment. There are some bright spots on the horizon. Chaim will search every dumpster / yard sale high and low looking for the real life Roy Hobbs . Until he finds him or hopefully gets fired . We are stuck with a 500 team .
B dog – Well said. That’s exactly the situation in Boston.
Excellent post, and very true!!
You know what’s wild? Blocking Troll Free and Fever Pitch and then seeing “42 comments are unavailable”
Those two are absolute lunatics. I get trolling, but I also leave the house on occasion.
Icon – You do realize making a comment like you just did constitutes trolling. Also, another fact that escapes that vast mind of yours is that long comments don’t have to be read and talking baseball with other baseball fans is often fun.
I personally look for to EVERY comment Fever makes along with many others. I don’t have to agree with it to enjoy it. I especially love the references he provides not just his opinions like many of the Bloom supporters. Honestly, I even look forward to Joe’s comments because he brings a unique perspective.
Icon – hating isn’t the answer. If you need a short posting because your attention span can’t focus on a topic for that long, then let me suggest twitter, istagram or if you can sing or dance maybe tiktok!!!
Trollfree – Thank you for the kind words, I appreciate it!
I always look forward to your comments as well.
Muting certain posters is so yellow. Can’t take rebuttal or even the occasional scathing attack? Builds thick skin I say.