The qualifying offer for the upcoming offseason will be in the $20.5MM range, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The specific number may not be known until shortly after the conclusion of the regular season.
It’ll be the highest QO value in league history. The offer price is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors. That figure generally increases year over year as overall spending rises.
The annual progression of the QO value since its implementation during the 2012-13 offseason:
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
- 2023-24: roughly $20.5MM
Teams can make the qualifying offer to an impending free agent who has a) never previously received a QO in their career and b) spent the entire 2023 season on their roster. It’d be a one-year offer valued at that approximate $20.5MM price point. Players tagged with the QO have five days to decide whether to accept that lofty one-year salary or decline in search of a free agent contract. Signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer from another team requires forfeiture of a draft choice and potentially international signing bonus space, depending upon the signing club’s revenue sharing status. A team receives compensation for the loss of a player who turned down a QO and signed elsewhere.
14 players received qualifying offers last offseason. Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez accepted. The other 12 players declined, though Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Nimmo subsequently ended up re-signing with their previous team.
Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Josh Hader are among the players who are near locks to receive and reject the QO this winter. Jordan Montgomery and Lucas Giolito were taken out of QO consideration by midseason trades, while Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman are ineligible as previous recipients.
What are the odds the Phillies extend to both Nola and Hoskins. I kind of hope they don’t for either. Especially Hoskins
Nola at 1/20.5m would be someone a lot of teams would give up a pretty valuable prospect or two for. Total no brainer.
i’ll take baba booey with fake knees over hoskins
I’d take Wendy the Slow Adult over Hoskins
I told you not to be stupid, you moron.
No way they let Nola walk for nothing
Nola is a guarantee to be qualified, whereas Hoskins is doubtful.
Wouldn’t QOing Nola at this point be disrespectful?
Since when is offering 20MM+ to a guy for a year of work considered disrespectful?
Since he’s worth more than that and having the comp pick attached hurts him in FA and extending the QO forces a timetable on him. Same reason the Dodgers didn’t QO Clayton Kershaw.
If hes leaving why would the phillies care if the comp pick hurts him in free agency?
Since he’s worth more than that and having the comp pick
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It is almost like the players should have a union to create a contract that addresses free agency.
@justme, the union agreed on QO and the team isn’t obligated to be kind, this is a business and offering a guy 20 mil for 1 year to play a game is hardly an insult. Woe is the player who may only make a few million less per year because a team wants to exercise an option mutually agreed on by representation by both ownership and and MLBPA.
@Poolhalljunkies Who besides you says he’s leaving?
@JoeBrady and Macbeth Hey I’m just applying the same logic to Aaron Nola that the Dodgers applied to Clayton Kershaw so go talk to them.
lol
Man this number is really going thru the roof.
It’s always the average of the top 125 salaries. It tells me baseball is a pretty healthy sport since it’s increased over 50% in 11 years.
this number is really going thru the roof.
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It is actually spot on target most of the time. This year it is a 4.3% increase. That looks like inflation to me.
That figure hardly beats out the current annual inflation rate of 3.2%. from last year’s Q.O. of $19.65MM. The players should strike!
Somebody get Tony the Tiger on line one and Better Call Saul on line two
Unfortunately mr. Goodman is in prison so might be a minute before we can get him on line 2.
I think making 20.5M next year should get a big leaguer through the offseason without having to take a second job.
No matter how high it goes, almost every player could beat it in free agency over just two two years. It’s the extremely rare candidate who’s market has cratered and the QO represents a massive overpay the team is willing to give them for one year.
I can only think of 2 or 3 players who took the QO and got like $17m+ as players who wouldn’t have received 2+ years at $8.5M+ on the open market.
None of this year’s FA’s who are eligible for the QO would gain from it.
TTO
Am I missing something
1/$17 is MUCH better than 2 years at $8.5. They’d only have to get $1 million the second year to come out ahead.
I think you are missing something. 1 year/$17M as someone who would not reach that amount in the open market over multiple years.
So someone who might’ve received 1 year/$4M or 2 years/$12M on the open market, etc.
TTO
Players who would only get 1/$4 or 2/$12 wouldn’t get the QO (unless their team massively misread the market).
It has happened. A few guys who took the QO were guys who got paltry 1-2 year deals the rest of their careers.
TTO
1) who, for example
2) the problem with that is that because a player who gets $20 million in 2024 and only $4 million in 2025 and beyond doesn’t mean that their value in 2024 wasn’t near $20 million per year.
Martin Perez would be an example.
Jeremy
Perez was coming off of a fantastic 2022 and would have gotten well more than a 1 year $4 million deal for 2023.
I think you are missing something. 1 year/$17M as someone who would not reach that amount in the open market over multiple years.
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But those players won’t get a QO, so I am not sure what your point is.
JB
This
Maybe TTO thinks all players get the QO?
Insanity.
sfs
What specifically is insane?
Duh, the amount.
sfs
Why is the amount insane?
It’s about 5% per year higher than the original amount.
That seems very reasonable – the opposite of insane.
Cue the “tHeY’rE pLaYiNg a ChIlD’s GaMe” prototypical response
They don’t make records, write their own stuff, have their songs on the radio everyday, create something actually culturally relevant for centuries that represent our culture for all time….
These entertainers
actually do very little in comparison and should not.be demanding to be paid like.rock stars.
Because they are NOT.
I object.
And I object to $7 hotdogs, it is abject misery and unfair to any red blooded American whoever tasted apple pie.
Have you no shame? $7 hotdogs?
Ok; Then don’t watch. The players are worth as much as your dollar invests in them. People are not paid on the basis of some subjective criteria of positive or lasting “impact.”
That’s right. I have made several decisions not to go to a baseball game because it is cost prohibitive for my economic status.
The Cs and BCs have taken baseball away from me.
Kids used to able to collect some cans,.skip school and go to a baseball game…..Now? They have to commit credit card fraud or armed robbery…..
What is a kid supposed to do when he skips school?
Drugs are cheaper and more readily available/accessible than baseball….
No one thinks about our culture, ONLY the almighty dollar. In today’s world, NO ONE.HAS THE INTEGRITY TO EVEN CARE, LET ALONE
PLAN.
(I deleted.the.names I used because it.would appear to be something.other than I intended, both people are very, very rich compared with the average baseball fan)
TSTS
I’m curious
How would you like to see this?
How much should tickets cost?
How much should players make?
How will you keep the best athletes from choosing sports other than baseball to play?
How will you keep scalpers from buying all the tickets so the school-skipping kids can’t buy them?
Lay it out for us
a) I don’t understand the question. With both eyes open,live in person, I suppose. Skybox would work.b) It’s not the ticket price that drive me crazy, it’s price of hotdogs..what nerve! Do you know how they make those things? Next thing you know, they’ll be charging for mustard. c) truthfully, I don’t care really, I only know.I should get more…seriously…$150M is an good average payroll? /26 = $5.76M annual….sounds cheap… $7M x 26= $182M, sounds like a lot for the Tigers, but certainly fairer for the keepers. Pitchers expect more. It’s fair to release them to FA at 30 y.o……d) since.Mickey Lolich retired the best athletes have gone into the “entertainment ” field…if I get more specific, I’ll get banned. e) Marlin Perkins, my dear man, Marlin Perkins…..
Teams should not commit to contracts that they can’t just walk away from.
Too bad bonuses are restricted to things like AllStar appearances and MVP/Cy vote but that works as a motivator and equalizer for a lower end contract.
The QO system is silly. As is the system of penalties. If you have to reward a team for simply rostering a player for the entire year, and making an offer they know will be turned down, then make it longer in years. Make the owners take more of a real risk before they collect a draft pick. And get rid of the penalties for signing a QO player–they work as perverse incentives, as does much of the CBA when they try to put a drag on salaries.
You gotta love the large market apologists.
Tobttr
I prefer the people who support labor over capital
How is something that will help 8-12 OWNERS in the sport out of 30 supporting LABOR?
Kind of like those big local TV deals favoring certain markets, eh?
TobttR
How did you construe Mike’s comment as supporting the owners?
They said the QO was silly and that it drags down salaries.
Easy. If you get rid of the penalties for signing a QO player, it only benefits the handful of teams that doll out that kind of cash.
TobttR
How does THAT benefit the owners?
Artificially depressing salaries definitely works against labor and for capital. And that’s what the QO does.
If you can’t see that, you are definitely a large market apologist.
TobttR
I’m open to trying to understand you. But I think it’s going to be difficult for you to convince me that players being paid less is good for the players.
But the floor is yours. Proceed.
How does THAT benefit the owners?
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That’s not what Tobttr posted. This is what he posted:
“You gotta love the large market apologists.”
It is easily explainable. The idea that you remove any penalties for signing FAs favors the large market teams over the small market teams. It has nothing to do with the “owners” as a collective.
JB
Or course it has something to do with the owners as a collective
A player having a QO attached increases the cost to sign them
Next, you’re going to say that the draft is a way to distribute talent and not a way to drive down salaries
So you would have the large markets buy all the talent and not have a draft either.
Thank you for confirming what we suspected.
Tobttr
I would end the draft so that the players had more leverage and were paid their market value – yes, absolutely.
I’d also do away with the CBT and increase revenue sharing.
I’ll let the owners fight amongst themselves if they think that some of them are taking unearned money and keeping it for themselves. And be frustrated that they don’t see the hypocrisy in that
as does much of the CBA when they try to put a drag on salaries.
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Not to dumb this down too much, but that is what a CBA is for. There is a pot of ~ $12B that both sides want to share. If it were up to the players, they would become unrestricted FAs after one year. If it was up to the owners, they would never become FAs.
This is the same for every union and company in the world. And it is a very healthy dynamic.
There are some interesting comments here, and I think it’s worth disambiguating them. Let’s talk about the QO for a second and big market teams vs. small market teams. A big market team (let’s use the Yankees as a proxy) can afford to make QO’s in more marginal situations that a smaller market team (use the Rays as a proxy) cannot dare to take the risk because it would eat up a third of their budget. So, the QO is only of value to a smaller market team if the player unambiguously is so good that he’s going to get a multi-year big-dollar offer, and that ameliorates the risk.
The intention of the QO is not merely to reward the outgoing team with some value but also to put a drag on salaries for the outgoing player because his potential market is limited only to those teams willing to risk the signing penalties. Perversely, this doesn’t impact the huge-dollar can’t miss guys (Judge and Freeman were going to get paid full market value) but does the more middle of the road FA’s who were given a QO. Their market (and their paycheck) might be thinner.
Sonny Gray is the most interesting free agent to me. He’ll be 34 years old but has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since leaving NY. Really wonder how big of a contract he gets. Not a Twins fan but hope he finishes his career in MIN. Looks like both parties really complement each other.
This could be his first dip into free agency as he has always signed extensions. He talked about retirement around the ASB and that it wasn’t strictly about the money. Wouldn’t surprise me if he signs a below-market deal to stay a Twin right after the WS ends.
I think that would be great.Kershaw+ is right that he is extremely interesting in the performance/age dynamic. But the Minny thing is working out great for both sides and it would be nice to keep it that way.
Mitch Garver?
Good call Seager! Longshot perhaps?
It’s worth a 1 year contract imo. It might be more than he would get annually in the open market. He doesn’t play a lot and will be 33. The bat is still worth it. If he accepts you overpay a bit for one year for a solid DH/backup C. If he declines you get the draft pick or resign for multiple years at a lesser amount
Maryin Perez was a 1 year wonder, and he got it. I don’t see why not Garver. I’d do that and hope he signs with another team so that Texas gets a pick and can spend the money from Perez’s contract on Montgomery and partially on Hader.
many walk year heroics.
I think the QO system is really smart.it is so high that you only offer it to good players but most really good players will get more.
So really the QO is designed in a way that the players who are offered it should reject it, it is simply a smart way for the market to decide who deserves a draft pick compensation.
Until a couple years ago almost all QOs where rejected but it seems in the last couple years more QOs have been accepted by players but still most QOs are getting rejected.
Not sure why sometimes fringy players get offered the QO. I think sometimes clubs hope to sneak in a fringy player hoping he rejects so they can “steal” a draft pick.or they are willing to overpay for a year because they like to get a productive player for a year and then have the space cleared the year after that (it could be that there payroll in year x has room but in year x+1 and x+2 arb raises are kicking in so they prefer 1 for 20 over 3 for 35.
Yeah, the last time I was offered 20.5 mill for one year I said “no way” same day. It’s really aggravating the way business owners try to take advantage.
Matt Chapman will be very interesting. Not a $20.5-mil player but some believe a team will severely overpay for him beyond that salary. Chapman should consider the QO if offered.
He might not get more that $20.5M, no matter what MLB-R seems to think, but he could get $20.5 for 4 years plus an option. He will reject a QO.
WNBA wants their cut
Some Jays fans think he’s getting more than that. Utterly absurd. Almost as bad as reading comments on BTV by Guardians fans.
If you look at Matt Chapman’s WAR this year, it is almost identical to Rafael Devers. Devers is going to earn $31 million next year. And for nine further years.
I don’t suggest Chapman (3 or 4 years older) will get a 10 year $300 million plus contract. Maybe defensive WAR is overvalued. Maybe the Sox have factored in defensive improvement over time by the relatively young Devers…
But as a consequence, and in a thin market would anyone by surprise by 5 years and $110 million for Chapman?
It’s their death wish if they do.
20 million dollars for the qualifying offer is a good chunk of change. It would be difficult to turn that down, unless you have previously performed well and have a down year perhaps, it’s a great pillow deal.