With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.
Over the coming weeks, MLBTR will go around the diamond to preview the free agent class. We’ve already covered catcher, first base and second base so far. Onto third base!
Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included for this exercise. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.
Everyday Players
- Jeimer Candelario (30); ineligible for qualifying offer
Candelario has spent some time at first base since being traded from the Nationals to the Cubs, but he’s primarily been a third a baseman both this season and in his big league career. While he drew poor marks early in his MLB tenure with Detroit, he’s been only slightly below-average in 2023 by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, while Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating have him slightly above average. At the very least, Candelario can be considered a passable defender at the hot corner.
Teams won’t be chasing Candelario for his glove anyhow — he’s a bat-first player who’ll represent one of the top hitters on this offseason’s market. While he’s cooled a bit in recent weeks — just five hits in his past 52 at-bats — the switch-hitting corner infielder is still hitting .253/.338/.473 on the season. That’s 18% better than league average, by measure of wRC+, giving him three seasons of decidedly above-average work at the plate in the past four years. He’s batted .255/.326/.438 (111 wRC+) dating back to 2020 and has played at a three- to four-WAR pace in each of the 2020, 2021 and 2023 seasons.
The 2022 season looks like an aberration rather than the beginning of any sort of decline, and Candelario will be viewed as a safe bet to turn in above-average offense at a thin position — and in a market where there are few above-average hitters available in general. He’d have been a QO candidate had he stuck with the Nats all year, but his midseason trade renders him ineligible. He’ll have a case for a four-year deal in free agency.
- Matt Chapman (31); eligible for qualifying offer
Chapman’s brilliant start to the season has long since faded, as he proved unable to sustain the improved strikeout rate he sported through that torrid April performance. He was still an above-average hitter for much of the season thereafter, but he recently fell into a woeful slump and was placed on the injured list with a sprain in his right middle finger. Manager John Schneider revealed at the time of the IL placement that the third baseman had been attempting to play through it for weeks but aggravated the injury during an Aug. 27 at-bat. He’s been out since, his hand in a splint for much of that time.
The .248/.338/.431 batting line that Chapman has posted overall this season remains well above the league-average (13% better, by wRC+), but he’s been a ways shy of his MVP-caliber performance from 2018-19 for the past four years now. Perhaps not coincidentally, he underwent hip surgery back in 2020.
Chapman remains a sensational defender at third base, and paired with his above-average power and strong walk rates, he has a high floor. Even if his offense never returns to peak levels, he’s still been worth between 3.5 and 4.5 WAR in each of the past three seasons. That floor, plus the allure of Chapman’s elite hard-contact skills (despite not always turning into the desired results), should make him one of the most in-demand free agents on the market. Chapman is eligible for a qualifying offer, which he’ll likely receive and reject.
- Gio Urshela (32); eligible for qualifying offer
That Urshela is eligible for a QO is largely a moot point; he played in just 62 games this year before a fracture in his pelvis ended his season. He won’t receive a qualifying offer, but his track record will still position him for a possible multi-year deal (depending on his recovery) in a thin market at the hot corner.
Urshela hit .299/.329/.374 in 228 plate appearances before sustaining that injury and is a .291/.335/.452 hitter dating back to his 2019 breakout with the Yankees. He doesn’t walk much, but Urshela also puts the ball in play at a strong rate (just an 18.9% strikeout rate in that five-year span) and has previously demonstrated 15- to 20-homer pop in addition to solid defensive skills. There will surely be some trepidation as to how those skills will hold up in the wake of an uncommon injury of this nature, but some teams might also view that as a method of securing Urshela’s talents at a lower-than-expected rate for the next couple seasons.
Multi-Position Veterans
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)
Two years in the Bronx haven’t gone especially well for Kiner-Falefa, who didn’t pan out as the everyday shortstop and stopgap to Anthony Volpe as well as the Yankees hoped. “IKF” has since moved into a utility role that seems to better suit him. He’s batted just .253/.312/.333 over 873 plate appearances with the Yankees. The ten home runs he’s popped underscore his lack of power, but Kiner-Falefa has also swiped 35 bags as a Yankee (in 44 tries) and proven to be a versatile defender. He’s added some outfield work to his resume and can bounce all over the infield. Defensive metrics like DRS and OAA agree that third base is his best position. Contending teams will see him as a bench piece, but it’s possible some rebuilding clubs or long-shot postseason teams will view him as an everyday option.
- Donovan Solano (36)
Solano’s out-of-nowhere emergence as a quality big league hitter after signing a minor league deal with the Giants heading into his age-31 season remains remarkable. He’s not slowing down in 2023. The Twins inked him to a one-year, $2MM deal that’s proven to be a bargain, as he’s slashed .287/.372/.404 with five homers while playing first base, second base and third base. He should get a raise to fill a similar multi-positional role with a team in 2024. He’s played more first base (529 innings) and second base (102 innings) than third (82 innings) in Minnesota, but he’s still capable at all three spots.
- Joey Wendle (34)
Wendle was seen as a premium defender with an above-average but underrated bat at the time of his trade from Tampa Bay to Miami. He’s largely lived up to that “premium defender” billing with the Marlins, but his left-handed bat has fallen off a cliff. In 668 plate appearances with Miami, Wendle is hitting just .244/.280/.345. He has elite defensive marks at second base and above-average marks at both left-side infield positions in his big league career and could still garner interest as a utilityman on a big league deal.
Part-Time/Platoon Veterans
- Josh Donaldson (38)
The 2023 season has been a nightmare for Donaldson, who turned in a career-worst .142/.225/.434 line in 120 plate appearances before being released by the Yankees late last month. The Brewers signed Donaldson to a minor league deal, called him to the big leagues earlier this week, and have watched him go 3-for-6 with a homer and three walks. Ugly as the season has been, Donaldson has mashed four homers in 32 plate appearances against lefties. If he can show well down the stretch (and perhaps into the postseason) with the Brew Crew, he could attract Major League interest in free agency — albeit likely in a part-time role.
- Evan Longoria (38)
A former American League Rookie of the Year and three-time All-Star, Longoria has been roughly average at the plate in 2023 during his first season with the D-backs. He’s hitting lefties at a solid .242/.318/.463 clip, however, and could hold appeal to a contending club as a part-time corner infielder and designated hitter. He’s quite clearly not the superlative defender and perennial MVP candidate he was early in his career, but Longo hits lefties and has popped 11 homers in 219 plate appearances while posting a .214 ISO (slugging minus batting average). He’s also averaging a massive 92.6 mph exit velocity and with a similarly gaudy 53.5% hard-hit rate. He’s sitting on a career-worst 32% strikeout rate, but when Longo makes contact — it’s typically loud.
Depth Candidates
- Ehire Adrianza (34)
A shoulder injury has cost Adrianza most of the 2023 season. He’s taken just 11 turns at the dish with the Braves this year. The switch-hitting 34-year-old can play all over the infield, but he’s just a .209/.295/.310 hitter in 431 plate appearances dating back to 2020.
- Hanser Alberto (31)
Alberto hit .220/.261/.390 in 90 plate appearances with the White Sox this year. His right-handed bat has never been able to handle right-handed pitching (.232/.257/.330), but he’s a career .324/.343/.455 hitter against lefties. He has generally positive defensive grades at multiple infield spots but made some glaring and costly miscues with the Sox prior to his June release.
- Brian Anderson (31)
The former Marlins standout has been hobbled by injuries in recent seasons and was non-tendered by Miami last November. He signed a one-year pact with the Brewers and got out to a big start, but Anderson’s batting line is down to .224/.309/.364 after a slow summer at the plate and he’s striking out at a career-worst 30.1% rate.
- Charlie Culberson (35)
Culberson made exactly one plate appearance with the Braves this season despite spending several weeks on the big league roster. He appeared in 24 Triple-A games with them and hit .204/.234/.255. Culberson is a beloved clubhouse presence and a fan favorite in Atlanta, but his .250/.292/.390 slash since Opening Day 2019 isn’t much to look at.
- Paul DeJong (30)
DeJong technically hasn’t played third base in the Majors, but he’s a plus defender at shortstop and could likely handle the hot corner as part of a utility role. He’s a .200/.274/.353 hitter over the past four big league seasons, though.
- Hunter Dozier (32)
Released by the Royals midway through the third season of a four-year deal back in May, Dozier could sign with any team for only the prorated league minimum. He didn’t sign following his release, however, and carries just a .222/.286/.384 line in 1134 plate appearances since 2021. Dozier was great in 2019 and solid in 2020, but his combined .267/.347/.492 output from that two-year peak is a distant memory in 2023.
- Josh Harrison (36)
Harrison batted .270/.332/.390 in 1074 plate appearances from 2020-22, but this year’s run with the Phillies resulted in a .204/.263/.291 slash in 114 plate appearances. He can play second base, third base and the outfield corners. He could still draw interest on a minor league deal and compete for a bench job next spring.
- Tommy La Stella (35)
A productive utilityman from 2016-20, La Stella’s three-year deal with the Giants was torpedoed by injuries. He was released this offseason and signed with the Mariners but only took 24 plate appearances as a DH and pinch-hitter, due to an elbow injury. He’s batted .242/.296/.373 since signing with the Giants in the 2020-21 offseason, battling a torn hamstring, an Achilles injury and that elbow trouble along the way.
- Mike Moustakas (35)
Moustakas has had somewhat of a rebound season in 2023, simply by virtue of the fact that he’s been healthy enough to stay on the field. This year’s 370 plate appearances are already his most since 2019. Moustakas is hitting .252/.300/.404 with a dozen homers, but most of that damage came while he called Coors Field home. Since being traded from the Rockies to the Angels, he’s posted a .243/.265/.387 line in 263 plate appearances (71 wRC+).
Club Options
- Eduardo Escobar (35)
Escobar was a productive hitter from 2017-22, with the lone exception of the Covid-shortened 2020 season. He reached 35 homers in the juiced-ball campaign back in 2019 and topped 20 dingers four other times. The 2023 campaign was the second season of his two-year, $20MM deal with the Mets and didn’t go well. The Mets traded him to the Angels after a poor start and paid down all but the minimum on his contract to facilitate the deal. He’s been used sparingly in Anaheim and hasn’t hit well: .224/.263/.327. The Angels aren’t going to pick up this option, and the Mets are responsible for the $500K buyout.
- Max Muncy (33)
Assuming he logs another 35 plate appearances, Muncy’s $10MM club option will grow to $14MM. There’s no buyout for the team. Proponents of batting average won’t like it, but a $14MM decision is an easy call for the Dodgers to exercise. Muncy is barely north of the Mendoza Line, but he’s walking at an excellent 14.8% clip and hitting for more power than ever before. He’s already tied his career-high with 35 homers in just 515 plate appearances. Overall, he’s hitting .208/.332/.492.
Player Option
- Justin Turner (39)
Turner has only logged 57 innings at third base in 2023, though that’s in part due to the presence of Rafael Devers in Boston. Still, defensive grades on him dipped during his final years with the Dodgers, and he’ll turn 39 in November, so it’s hard to assume a rebound. He’s spent some time at second base and first base this year, plus plenty of time at designated hitter.
There might be questions about Turner’s defensive outlook, but there’s no questioning his bat. He’s hitting .283/.354/.475 (121 wRC+) with 23 home runs, an 8.6% walk rate and 16.8% strikeout rate. Turner has become the embodiment of the “professional hitter” classification, and with such a hefty buyout on that player option, he should have no time toppling a net $6.7MM in free agency.
So what you’re saying is… the free agent class outside of Ohtani this offseason really sucks? Yes, I agree very much.
Someone is going to give Chapman an ill-advised contract. Realistically, he should probably only get $68m over 3 years, but I’m sure someone will give him $130/5
I doubt Chapman gets anywhere near those numbers. Just my opinion but I think Candelerio is better than him and I know he’s not getting those numbers. The Cubs could use a short term 3B for next year but Candelerio and Chapman are getting more years than the Cubs want to go and the rest of that is a pile of steaming s**t.
I never favor long term contracts and especially not with older guys. Chapman deserves a few bucks, though, on a short contract.
I’ve been watching Moustakas play for the Angels lately and he’s looks like he’s suffering from a hangover on 3B.
That is the perfect image for Moose, who imho has looked like he’s hungover for a long time.
No salary is ever set because of what someone “deserves.” Only based on what the market says. And the market is more player friendly than I’ve ever seen.
Justin Turner is a bargain for what he’ll get paid. Dude rakes, and he can still admirably fill in at multiple positions.
Turner is benefiting greatly by serving as the Sox primary DH while also hitting better at Fenway Park than on the road. Turner’s batting average is almost 50 points higher at home this season than on the road
As are most hitter’s batting averages. Road/home splits for hitters aren’t that informative.
I like Turner. Seems a great clubhouse guy, which is important. But to ignore a 50pt difference in Home/Away BA for a line-drive RH hitter that plays in Fenway seems a bit of a stretch.
Fenway, like Coors, is a unique ballpark. Ignore the home and away splits. If a player can hit, they will adjust to their next ballpark, too.
RyanD44 — What’s interesting is that if you look at JD Davis’ offensive numbers, they are remarkably close to Chapman’s.—although actually better in every category except doubles.
Both are 30 years old and while Chapman has the reputation of a Gold Glove third baseman he is only 3 errors more than Davis, who looked Gold Glove for the first two-thirds of the season. Admittedly, Chapman has about 200 more innings at third than Davis, who also plays first and DHs.
So, I would agree with RyanD44 cuz I think someone will overpay for Chapman, and I think the Giants did pretty well with that trade with the Mets.
Errors is not the greatest measure for defensive prowess. Chapman has double the POs and is positive in Rs saved opposed to Davis who is negative. There’s a gap of almost 30 between the 2. They are barely even comparable defensively.
Re-read my post. Chapman plays one position, Davis plays three.
Davis has playedv12 games in OF since 2014, I’d hardly consider that a position he has down. 1B he only plays sporadically as well. He’s also not particularly good at any of those positions or 3B. He is not moved around due to his defensive prowess, it’s to get his bat in lineup. Again he is not comparable to Chapman defensively. Chapman is a plus defender with 3 Gold Gloves and 2 Platinum Gloves. Whereas Davis is liability wherever he is with a glove.
Maybe if you saw him play everyday as Giant fans have, you might have a different opinion about his defense. He may not be Chapman but he’s plenty qualified to be an everyday third baseman.
I have watched him play quite a bit. He’d be best served being a DH. If you watched him every day, you would have known he can’t play 3 positions well. It is easy to tell sometimes the type of fan who just clicks on a players baseball reference page…
I think Chapman will be lucky if receives a 4/$80M offer. He’s 31 years old and his offense is slipping. Still a great defender but that will probably slow down as he ages as well. I’m sure he’s looking for 5+ years and $100M+ but I don’t think he’ll find it.
Toronto should put the QO on him as they could use him for one more season if he were to accept it. If not, they’ll get draft compensation for him signing elsewhere.
Scarcity. The lack of pretty much everything but pitching in this free agent market will drive up Chapman’s years/dollars.
Starting pitching is the strength of this year’s free agent class, but more teams need starters than there are quality FA available so it’s going to be an all out bidding war for the top starting pitchers in this year’s class. All of them are going to get higher than expected AAV and the term might be longer than expected too.
Which basically means that a lot of teams will be regretting their decision in a few years.
At the start of the year, more starters were needed. Every player that becomes a FA creates a need at that same position. The nature of free agency is a bidding war. Every FA is overpaid, as 29 other teams decided he wasn’t worth that much. Its the same thing every year.
Candelario 4/60 or chapman 5/100 ?
Or send the Angels a pair of low ceiling, high floor pitching prospects and get Rendon for 3/45, as the Angels eat most of their mistake?
Seriously? Not a single team in MLB would trade for Rendon at this point in time. His value is exactly ZERO. No team would give up any prospect(s), at any price.
Looking at this list I can definitely see why MLB wants to expand. Not enough 50 year olds on here.
Just a quick question for everyone. Where are we sitting on Evan Longoria in the Hall of Fame? And please don’t use the phrase “Hall of Very Good” in a reply because Fame and Very Good are not on the same scale.. Personally, I think he is just shy as of now, but he will probably end up hanging out on the ballot for the full 10 years around 20-40%, probably like Jeff Kent. Your thoughts?
Agreed
I think he’s going to miss out on the Hall. Too many injuries / bad years as he got into his 30’s. He’s definitely a high quality player and deserves a spot on the ballot, but I don’t think he’ll get enough votes to be enshrined.
I watched Longo in SF for years, most of which were not very productive offensively. He picked it up a bit in the last few years. I like the guy but he’s not HOF.
Maybe he makes it past the first ballot? He’s not a generational talent, to be honest. His peak window was too brief, he passed 30 home runs only four times, his career WAR just says nope, and the accolades really ended after his ROY. He only ever led the leagues in two categories: grounded into double plays and sac flys. Truly an awesome player. Definitely not HOF.
Unless he puts up about 10 WAR in the next couple seasons he is just outside. He will get votes and I would think enough to keep him on the ballot.
Hall of Splendid candidate for sure
Farm systems becoming ever more important , you’re not building a winner in free agency.
Wowza. What a heap of garbage. IMO none of these guys warrant anything more than a 1 year deal.
So Candelaria bats .253 and he is a great hitter, while Kiner-Falefa is hitting just .253 and is considered a disappointment.
Candelario had 21 and 38 double and top 10 most XBH in 2023 so far
Wilfred- are all hits created equal???
Batting average? What year is this?
Its 2023, and batting ave is a scarcity, so should have even more value, not less.
Mariners Legend Russell Branyan?
Hoping to see Urshela back in Angels uni next season. I would think coming off that injury that a make it deal, 1 year with an option, would get it done, but because of the dearth of position players on the market it make take more.
Chapman’s brilliant start to the season has long since faded, as he proved unable to sustain the improved strikeout rate he sported through that torrid April performance.
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You need to stop with the Chapman praise. He has a career K/PA of 27.2%. He is 2023 K/PA is 28.5%. His monthly K/PA are 22.8, 28.1, 33.7, 24.5, and 35.4%.
Even if much-vaunted brilliant start was only 2 weeks long with a 18.4%, followed by two weeks of 27.8%. The entire “massive contract” meme that MLB-R has been pushing was based on about two weeks of hot hitting, plus a massive BABIP.
That said, Chapman’s somewhat sedate season might make him a more attractive target for my RS, and moving Devers to 1st and Casas to DH.
Players get paid on their whole season and all of their play. He is a 4.0 WAR player with a 112 OPS+ for the season and a 10 DRS.
Regardless of how you feel about him, he is getting paid and paid well this offseason.
At least a 50% raise and 5-6 years.
We can try to put a shine on Donaldson & Longoria all day long, but the fact is both of them are where AJ Pollock was a year ago. When all you can hang your hat on is “mashes lefties”, the end is very near.
Adams needs to go. He ignores the basic rules of English grammar too often, like when he says stuff like “ugly as the season has been.” The sentence HAS to start with “as,” it’s not optional. Write in legitimate English or get the pink slip, Adams.