Throughout the week, we’ve covered the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. As Anthony Franco noted earlier today, we’ll now move to the outfield. You can check out that piece for a preview of the left field/right field options available this winter, but we’ll focus here on center field — one of the relatively well-stocked (emphasis on “relatively”) areas of the position player market this winter.
Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.
Everyday Options
- Cody Bellinger (28)
Non-tendered by the Dodgers last year, Bellinger has enjoyed a hugely successful rebound with the Cubs. In 492 plate appearances, the former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player has posted a huge .316/.358/.545 batting line with 25 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a career-low 16.1% strikeout rate. He’s walking at the lowest rate of his career (6.5%) and chasing balls out of the strike zone far more than he did at his peak. However, he’s also sporting career-high contact rates on pitches off the plate (71.7%) and pitches within the strike zone (87.1%).
Bellinger missed about six weeks of the season with a knee injury, which might be the only thing that stops him from reestablishing himself as a 30-homer slugger. Were it not for that absence, he’d have had a legitimate chance to deliver a 30-30 season with above-average defense at multiple spots (center field, first base).
The 2021-22 seasons were nightmarish for Bellinger, though they came in the wake of 2020 shoulder surgery. Bellinger also suffered a fractured fibula early in the ’22 campaign that could well have impacted him at the plate even after his return. His quality of contact isn’t as impressive as it once was — Bellinger averaged 91.1 mph off the bat with a 45.6% hard-hit rate in 2019, compared to 87.9 mph and 31.7% in 2023 — but the results are hard to ignore. In a market with so few bats of note, Bellinger stands not only as one of the best but also as the youngest option available.
The Cubs will make Bellinger a qualifying offer, and he’ll reject it with little thought. They’ll be one of many teams angling to sign him this winter, but Bellinger and agent Scott Boras will probably try to see to it that whoever inks him does so to the tune of $200MM or more.
- Harrison Bader (30)
Bader’s offense in 2023 certainly hasn’t been that of an everyday player. He’s batted just .237/.280/.356 on the year — the worst performance in any of his full seasons at the MLB level. Part of that is likely due to an uptick in fly balls and decrease in the percentage of those flies that have become home runs, but Bader has probably also had a bit of misfortune on balls in play; his .268 BABIP is 50 points lower than the career mark he carried into the year.
Even with some slight positive regression, it hasn’t been a good year at the plate. Bader has never walked much, and he’s doing so at just a 5% clip in 2023. He’s putting the ball in play more than ever before (career-low 17.5% strikeout rate), but he’s rarely doing so in an impactful manner (86 mph average exit velocity).
That said, Bader’s most valuable skills are still shining. He’s a lights-out center fielder — a legitimately elite defender who’s posted 6 Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in just 735 innings this season. He’s also pummeling left-handed pitching, hitting southpaws at a .317/.380/.610 clip this season. Bader’s above-average speed is on display more than ever before, too. His 19 steals are a career-best mark, and he’s only been caught three times.
Bader’s glove alone will earn him a multi-year deal, and he showed from 2018-21 that he has the potential to deliver at least average offense. In that four-year run with St. Louis, Bader hit .244/.325/.420 in 419 games. With a high floor and a ceiling in the four to five WAR range, Bader could surprise some onlookers with a strong multi-year deal this winter. That he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer only helps his case.
- Kevin Kiermaier (34)
Speaking of preternatural outfield defenders, you’d never know by watching Kiermaier in the outfield that his 2022 season ended with hip surgery. The longstanding defensive wizard is back to vintage form and enjoying one of his best all-around seasons. The longtime Rays outfielder has logged 866 innings in center field in his first year with Toronto and racked up 16 Defensive Runs Saved and 11 Outs Above Average. He’s nowhere near his career-best 38 DRS (not a typo), but those 16 DRS rank eighth in the Majors at any position (one behind his outfield-mate Daulton Varsho in left field). His 11 OAA are tied for “only” 14th in the game.
Injuries tend to come with the territory for Kiermaier — in part due to the reckless abandon with which he plays his position — and the Jays have been good about affording him plenty of rest to keep him fresh. He also had a brief stay on the 10-day IL after a collision with the outfield wall required eight stitches in his elbow. He’s tallied just 361 plate appearances this year but turned in a nice .271/.331/.433 batting line with eight homers and 13 steals.
Kiermaier managed to land a one-year, $9MM deal in Toronto when he was coming off a notable surgery, and he’s now had a healthy and productive season. He’s not only reestablished himself among baseball’s premier defensive players, he’s turned in one of his best offensive campaigns, on a rate basis, and should be in position to command a multi-year deal. The Jays will face an interesting call on the qualifying offer. A one-year deal for Kiermaier worth around $20MM might well prove worthwhile, but the risk of injury is so substantial that they may opt not to roll those dice.
- Michael A. Taylor (33)
Though he’s often been used in a part-time role, Taylor is enjoying a career year offensively in Minnesota, where he’s swatted a personal-best 20 homers in just 354 trips to the plate. He’s also added 14 doubles and swiped 13 bases in 14 tries. Granted, a career-low 5.9% walk rate and career-high 33.3% strikeout rate call into question how likely it is that he can sustain this type of output, but Taylor’s .229/.281/.456 slash is roughly average, by measure of wRC+ (99).
Moreover, even if a team doesn’t expect Taylor to replicate that offense, he’s a strong enough defender that there’s a case to trot him out to center field every day anyhow. In 891 innings this year, he’s posted positive marks in DRS (5) and OAA (9). Dating back to 2017, he’s posted respective marks of 68 and 52 in those categories, ranking as one of the best defensive players in MLB — regardless of position.
Taylor’s glove alone makes him a viable source of two to three WAR, and if he shows he’s able to sustain his 2023 power surge, he could find himself in an everyday role. He’ll have a chance at landing a multi-year deal this winter. He’s QO-eligible, but solid as his season has been, he won’t receive one.
Platoon Options
- Adam Duvall (35)
He’s primarily been a corner outfielder in his career, but Duvall was signed to play center field in Boston and has done so for 448 innings during the 2023 season. That number would be higher had he not missed multiple months with a fractured wrist. Defensive metrics like DRS (-6) and OAA (-3) aren’t a fan of Duvall’s work in center, as one might expect for a 34-year-old who’s effectively playing out of position.
Duvall’s once-elite grades in the outfield corners have faded to average or slightly above in recent seasons, and the corners are probably where he’ll play the majority of the time with a new team. But he’s at least capable of handling part-time center field work, and his bat is his carrying tool anyhow. While Duvall has a penchant for low walk rates and bottom-of-the-barrel OBPs, there’s little doubting his power. He’s enjoying a nice rebound at the plate, hitting .254/.316/.543 with 19 home runs in only 310 plate appearances.
Duvall isn’t likely to sign as an everyday center fielder, but he can float through all three outfield slots and mix in time at designated hitter wherever he signs in 2024 — likely on a multi-year deal.
- Joey Gallo (30)
Gallo got out to a blistering start after signing a one-year, $11MM deal with the Twins. They’ve stuck with him throughout the year, even though his bat went cold in May and has never really rebounded. Gallo is hitting just .177/.301/.440 on the season, but he’s delivered a dreary .159/.287/.365 slash in his past 275 plate appearances. The Twins would’ve had ample justification to move on at any point, but he could yet finish out the year on their roster. Gallo recently hit the 10-day IL with a foot injury and could return during the final couple weeks.
Since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees in 2021, Gallo carries a .166/.293/.396 batting line in 970 plate appearances. He’s smashed 53 home runs in that time — 21 this season — but also has fanned in 40.5% of his plate appearances. Someone with his power and walk rate will likely get a big league deal this winter, but it’s hard to imagine him being ticketed for an everyday role in center field, where he’s played just 46 innings this season (but has 463 innings of experience in his big league career).
- Randal Grichuk (32)
Grichuk was enjoying a fine season in Colorado, slashing .308/.365/.496 at the time of a trade to the Angels. His bat has wilted since that swap, as he’s turned in a tepid .203/.253/.392 output in 154 plate appearances. Grichuk has 14 homers in 417 plate appearances overall. As is frequently the case, he’s played all three outfield spots but graded out below-average in center. Grichuk is best suited for corner work, where he has positive grades for his career. That’s particularly true in right field, where his strong throwing arm is best deployed.
Teams in need of help against left-handed pitching will surely be drawn to Grichuk’s massive .320/.386/.573 slash when holding the platoon advantage this year. He’s a lifetime .266/.314/.502 hitter in such situations as well. He’s gone unclaimed on waivers twice, but that’s likely due to a $9.333MM salary more than it is sheer disinterest in him. Grichuk makes for a fine bench bat who can be used in a larger role as injuries elsewhere on the roster might necessitate.
Infield/Outfield Hybrids
- Enrique Hernandez (32)
Hernandez had a great first year in Boston after signing a two-year deal, tanked in 2022, was extended anyway, and has struggled for much of the 2023 season. Since a trade to the Dodgers, he’s rebounded to the tune of a .267/.329/.427 slash, but the offense has been suspect as a whole for the bulk of the past five years. That 2021 campaign stands out as Hernandez’s only above-average season at the plate since 2019. Over the past five seasons, he owns a collective .237/.306/.394 line.
Hernandez can go get it in center field, however — evidenced by 23 DRS and 17 OAA in just 2629 career innings at the position. He’s a viable defensive option around the outfield and at second base, although the Red Sox proved this year that he shouldn’t be entrusted with anything more than emergency duties at shortstop. Hernandez has generally hit lefties well and has enough defensive aptitude and versatility to command a big league deal.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)
Kiner-Falefa got his first career look in center field this year, and held his own, though the Yankees have used him at the position more sparingly as the season’s worn on (in part due to recent promotions of other players). “IKF” has previously drawn plus defensive marks at third base and left field, and he’ll now hit the free agent market as a light-hitting jack-of-all-trades who can be deployed in super utility fashion. He’s hitting .240/.307/.341 on the season, which is roughly in line with his career .261/.314/.346 batting line in 2397 plate appearances.
Fourth Outfielders and Depth Candidates
- Adam Engel (32)
Engel posted eye-popping defensive marks in center during his first two big league seasons (2017-18) and hit well in a small sample from 2020-21. He’s still an above-average defender, though not to the same extent as he was at 25-26 years of age. He’s also a career .224/.279/.349 hitter who’s battled multiple injuries in recent seasons. His glove alone will get him interest on a minor league deal though.
- Jake Marisnick (33)
It’s easy to overlook just how good Marisnick has been defensively in his career. Since his 2013 debut, he ranks eighth among all outfielders with 80 DRS and 12th with 53 OAA. That comes despite the fact that nearly everyone ahead of him on the list has hundreds, if not thousands more innings in the outfield. He’s a career .228/.281/.385 hitter in 2247 plate appearances, however, and the lack of offense typically relegates him to minor league deals and bench roles.
- Kevin Pillar (35)
Pillar was a human highlight reel early in his career with the Blue Jays, but his defensive prowess has understandably waned as he’s aged into his mid-30s. The Braves have only given him 24 innings in center this year, primarily deploying him in left field. Pillar has never gotten on base at a high clip, and this year’s .236/.260/.422 slash is a bit more of an extreme development of his lifetime .258/.295/.409 batting line. He signed a minor league deal with a $3MM base this past offseason and could find similar interest this winter.
- Raimel Tapia (30)
Tapia has good bat-to-ball skills and speed but is light on power, evidenced by a career .273/.317/.388 batting line. Much of his production at the big league level has come at Coors Field, and he was released twice in 2023 (Brewers, Red Sox) after posting a combined .230/.308/.338 line. Tapia has primarily played left field but has 469 innings of center field work in his career. He’ll probably sign another minor league deal this winter.
Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield.
Bellinger to the Giants…just a guess though. Ha
That’s cause we all know Ohtani will sign elsewhere and they’ll have to settle
And then a medical will pop and he will go to the Mets no wait, back to the Cubs!
Haha
No way Bellinger is the top free agent cf. his batting average was low last season and many fans said he wasn’t worth even 10 million so it’s impossible he is the top free agent available.
Great reasons… a low batting average last year and what a tiny sample of fans thought. This is a very weak free agent class. I think Bellinger is one of the few bright spots. He had a couple very bad seasons, but he was a top 5 player before that.
And yet here we are Iver. Here we are.
Iver- You just get back from the International Space Station or something? Stuck on a deserted island? Wait I got it, Medically induced coma? You must of been off the grid somewhere to say that about Bellinger.
MUST HAVE
You know I do it just to Pi** you off right? And see just how long you’ll keep it up.
No you don’t.
If he can’t reach 30 homers in that band box where hitting a ball into a basket hanging two feet over the OF, it makes you wonder if he can keep those numbers in a real ball park.
Comon venger, whatever the Chisox are calling their ballpark these days – there is no way it’s not more of a homer haven than Wrigley. I know you know better than that.
I was thinking before that when Belli walks, The Cubs could sign Bader as a sneaky compliment to PCA in CF and if PCA struggles then maybe a Tauchman- Bader platoon might be useful until Pete gets it together. Bader would be a good defensive replacement and RH bat. Maybe not having to start would keep him healthy for a change. I agree it’s thinking out of the box but it might work. out.
It’s unfortunate, but when the curtain closes on the 2023 season for the Cubs, the FO likely will still have no idea about what they might expect next season from PCA or Mervis or Canario.
Fortunately due to the massive ineffectiveness of Taillon and Smyly – it forced Ross’ hand – to where he really didn’t have any choice but to see what Assad – and then Wicks, could do.
I understand Ross trying his best down the stretch to get to the playoffs.
But by playing his ‘comfortable veterans’ like Mancini and Hosmer FAR TOO LONG – it’s actually Ross’ fault that the team is now fighting to secure a spot – rather than being in a much more secure spot. Not to mention the bind he put the FO in, of trying to figure out what they exactly have already, in the organization. Also he is lucky that Tauchman helped out so much this year.
I wasn’t against Mancini but the Hosmer fiasco put the Cubs behind the 8 ball from the start. Sorry to say Mancini didn’t work out either but at least had been recently successful. I know you’re probably saying Canario can play CF and indeed he has played there but he’s nowhere close to Bader though probably a better hitter. PCA can make all that moot if he gets off to a good start, But a B/U plan might not be a horrible idea. Tauchman can start out at Iowa and be the emergency plan if it all goes bad. I don’t think the Cubs need much in FA as I think Vasquez and Madrigal can hold down 3rd until Shaw is ready and I’m really against them signing any FA P’s. I don’t know what the plan is, But the only thing I think they could spend big on is a Closer, And that would be by trade I think as I don’t think there are any good Closers on the market.
Actually because of the injury to Alzolay – I’m more concerned about adding another 8th or 9th inning guy than another mediocre outfielder. And resigning Middleton.
I think that Tauchman is a decent lead off hitter and a decent enough outfielder to keep holding things together until PCA is ready. I say that knowing he’s cooled off a bit lately.
If they could work something out with Belli for no longer than 5 years, I’m good with that – while I’d like to seek out a taker for Happ.
Caissie should be ready for his Chicago audition around next August – and Belli would be insurance should Mervis not be the player I believe he is.
Sorry I meant Merryweather not Middleton – mental lapse.
I agree with most of that except Happ has a full No trade contract and Merryweather will be back as all the Cubs have to do is extend him an offer since he is Pre Arbitration. Also Bader is an exceptional Defensive OF but a little better than mediocre hitter if and when he’s healthy. The fact that Canario and Caissie should be ready sooner rather than later is why I was stunned the Cubs did what they did with Happ. It was disappointing to say the least.
I still wonder if they were dumb enough to hand out NTC like popsicles. There are different opinions as to whether or not Happ has one.
But assuming he does, I’m hoping there are ways they can work around that blunder. Especially with the apparent shortage of decent FA OFers. Happ still has value – just not $19M/yr for 3 years, value.
It’s like the Cubs worked so focused and well, towards this rebuild. And it seems to be working out well – yet they give an OF like Happ, a NTC??? Really dumb, especially when they gave it to him, early THIS year.
Someone is going to pay a boatload of money to a guy that had a solid contract year immediately after 3 horrid years. The science of that is lost on me but I fully expect it to happen whether I agree or not – hope it isn’t my team. If it is, I hope the rebound keeps on rebounding!
Indeed – buyer beware. Guys who turn it up several notches in a walk year should not get more than a 3-year deal, but you just know somebody out there is dying to have another albatross contract on their roster. And for whoever signs Bader – make sure you have a solid Plan B because this guy will be on and off your IL multiple times every year.
Bader is a Paul Blair type. He’d be useful on a team that can actually hit, and the 2023 Yankees were not that type of team. I don’t know what that profile translates to in $
Unfortunately a ton of the readers here were probably never able to watch Blair patrol centerfield.
Fair point, I happen to be old
I remember watching Paul Blair, but with the Orioles.
I gave you a thumbs up just because of the Paul Blair mention…haha
Is it me, or is Hernandez listed on every free agent article so far?
Don’t be too surprised when he shows up in relief pitcher breakdown too
And why do they always call him Enrique when he’s known as Kike?
Wow. Take away Bellinger and that is one pee-poor list.
Yes sir, I agree with you on that point. Slow year all around in FA’s this fall.
Re: Bellinger, I liked the one year prove it deal, and good on the Cubs for benefiting from their risk. But have to agree with others here, a multi year 200M+ deal is a few bridges to far for my liking. 2 yrs, 45M seems about right.
Center fielders traditionally do not hit like corner outfielders, but stat boys somehow think up the middle players are supposed to. Those are exceptions, not the rule.
No way Bellinger gets 200+. Great rebound season but no chance. Gallo is cooked
Don’t ever underestimate sports management.
Bellinger is a very unique situation. A 28 yr old former MVP whose down years are widely believed to have been caused by fixable issues. Most believe his already big swing was affected, slowed, and over compensated for after shoulder injury. Teams looking at him will no doubt be pouring over footage of his swings to see if his corrections are sustainable. If any teams happy with what they see will no doubt want specialist(s) to really closely examine his shoulder.
In a weak free agent market, he is a high risk/ high reward talent. Someone is likely to pay him handsomely and given his down years could be a bargain of a mega contract. It also could hugely backfire on any team. Only time will tell, but having seen overlays of his swings new and old, I think he ll get the $200M.
The issue is the years needed to get to $200MM, not the AAV, IMHO.
Owners should be telling their GMs, “If you even give a moment’s thought to making an offer to Gallo, you’re fired.”
You might add Victor Robles to the list since it seems a forgone conclusion that the Nats are ready to move on (decline his option). He is still young and really suffered under Davey Martinez. Some team is going to turn him into a 20/20 player with above average center field defense.
This free agent class is so bad position wise. Basically have bellinger and Ohtani and after that a bunch of mid or worse guys. Maybe a couple of other decent guys hit the market because of options but this as bad of a groups as I’ve seen in awhile.
Bellinger is about to get paid big money.
Think we will see a number of trades this off-season because of the lack of position players available.
To be a nitpicker Michael A Taylor is not having a career year. He was much better in 2017. He has been good though.
He has a career high in home runs but he has had better overall years
Good for Belli. At the beginning of the season, I thought that the shift change elimination rule, along with the change in scenery, would suit Bellinger very well. Great to see he’s rebounded and enjoying the game again. Whether he can replicate it for a second season it up for debate, but he set himself up nicely to get himself locked in for a nice payday and at least a long leash look somewhere.
I’m a huge Bellinger fan… I thought he would do well this year… healed from those injuries… the new rules and getting out of Dodger stadium. His numbers in Dodger stadium were very average… a .245 hitter. Going to a nice small park really helped. He would be great in Yankee stadium. He would hit .330 there with 40+ homers. Yankees need to make this move. Him Judge and maybe find a 3B with some pop… Nolan Gorman? With Rizzo, Stanton Torrez and DJ… that offense would rock.
I could definitely see Yankees signing Belli. No way are they getting Gorman, a young proven player with years of control. The asking price on him would be outrageous.
As for their offense rocking, Belli would help. But DJ, Stanton, and Rizzo not getting any younger and they have anything but rocked in last few years.
Cue John Fogerty.
Bellinger to the Yankees..
“Bellinger averaged 91.1 mph off the bat with a 45.6% hard-hit rate in 2019, compared to 87.9 mph and 31.7% in 2023 ”
These advanced stats are so meaningless. Yes, the guy hits the ball hard he will probably be a better hitter… except when he isn’t. Daniel Vogelbach has a career exit velo of 90.2 and a hard hit rate of 43.8%… both much better than league average. This isn’t a small sample size… this is over 1,800 plate appearances and is he a great hitter? His walk rate is almost double the league average at over 15%. His strike out rat is slightly higher than average at 25%. He has a .219 lifetime average… he not that good.
Give me a guy with a .300 average that hits little loopers every day of the week. Luis Arraez has a hard hit rate of 27%… exit velo of 88MPH. Both below league average. He hits over .300 with below average walk rates and he’s still better than Vogelbach.
$20M a year for KK is crazy. This free agent class is so bad. The “top” of the market (all positions) is going to be crazy overpaid, especially Belly. I hope he’s actually good again because he’s fun to watch.. hard to trust though. These lists are depressing. Teams without strong development pipelines + extending their own players like Atlanta are going to get left way way behind if they arent already.
Honestly, if this article was written 3 years ago, I could see the thought of Gallo in center field. He’s a below average runner at this point, pushed to even cover the corners where he’s been worth -1 OAA in both corners.
Oh, and he can’t hit.
Bellinger is going to burn whoever signs him. He has to be the most inconsistent and unpredictable player in the majors. From year to year, you could be getting an MVP candidate or a guy that belongs in the minors. Whoever signs him will probably get a couple good years, but the rest of the years on his contract will be dead weight.
@Top Jimmy so you are clearly basing this off just looking at stats and do not know why Belli was struggling or the corrections made. Yes he would be a risky signing as is anyone. But the notion that you don’t know what you are getting year over year is unequivocally false. He played great til he did not so it was not a guessing game.
Why he was struggling has been analyzed quite thoroughly as has the corrections made. I’m not gonna spell it out for you, you can look it up yourself. Or you can just reply making further assumptions….
People get it. You’re a huge Bellinger fan.
I have no idea why you think Gallo will get a big deal this offseason. His deal with the Twins this year seems like it should be a ceiling to me. He has been terrible ever since the trade to the Yankees and he’s not proven to really be turning a corner either. He is Yang to Kyle Schwarbers Yin. Worse offense but better glove. Still strikes out and walks a lot.
The writer still believes Gallo is athletic (like he was 4-5yrs ago when he came up). A quick look into sprint speed and fielding performance is all that’s needed to clarify Gallo’s preferably a 3B/1B/DH kinda guy at this point.
I think teams will be wary of Bellinger’s sudden break out here in his contract year after performing pretty poorly in the year before it. That’s been a recipe for disaster so many times in MLB when it comes to long term contracts. I do think Bellinger will get 4-5 yrs, but that won’t be enough to get to $200MM.
Kiermaier is slowing down. Now at age 33, coming into his age 34 season, it’d be reasonable to expect him to be able to cover CF at an equal or plus value level for maybe 2 more years. If he values years over AAV, it’s going to cost him a lot. Say 1yr $20MM (QO), 2yrs $26MM or 3yrs $30MM.
Taylor hasn’t showed signs of slowing down… yet. He’ll be coming into his age 32 season and his bat is limited at league average or a little worse. He’ll probably get something similar to what he got with the Twins, but with 2-3yrs on it. 2-3yrs $16-24MM.
Why he struggled is pretty well known at this point as are the corrections he made. Any interested teams will no doubt review all of his ABs and have a specialist(s) examine his shoulder.
No, they’re really not. Bellinger’s 2020 wasn’t nearly as impressive as his previous seasons. Good, but not great. That was before the shoulder injury in November.
This year, Bellinger has an inflated BABIP, a poor walk rate and an wOBA 50pts higher than xwOBA. Historically, Bellinger’s wOBA and xwOBA have been pretty close to each other.
So questions remain as to why Bellinger played so poorly for 2 years after shoulder surgery, why he wasn’t nearly as good as expected before the surgery and why was Bellinger so good this year.
As good as Belli has been for my Cubs, I don’t think I’d sign up for the type of deal he’s looking for (if it was my money). 7 years, 210M. Is he truly all the way back? Those last couple of seasons were unplayably awful. One bounce back season, and all of a sudden he’s a star again? I don’t know what I don’t know.
“Too” shouldn’t have a comma before it. Come on, Adams.