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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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As has been the case for a few seasons, the Rockies underperformed internal expectations. While owner Dick Monfort said before Opening Day he felt the team could hover around .500, they’re instead headed for the first 100-loss season in franchise history. It can’t be fixed in one offseason, though Colorado will at least need to patch together a more competitive pitching staff if they’re to improve on this year’s NL-worst showing.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Owe Cardinals $5MM annually through 2025 as part of the Nolan Arenado trade
  • Owe $500K buyout to released RHP José Ureña

Option Decisions

  • None

Total 2024 commitments: $98.3MM
Total future commitments: $321.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Wynns, Castro, Lambert, Blach

Free Agents

The Rockies have missed the playoffs in five consecutive seasons. They’re on their way to a bottom-three record in the majors, which will tie them with Oakland and Kansas City for the highest odds of securing the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. Colorado hasn’t chosen to rebuild in the same way as some of the other worst teams in the majors, but they’ve had rebuilding results.

On any team that loses 100 games, there are a lot of weak points on the roster. None is quite as stark as the rotation. Colorado has had seven starters log 50+ innings this season. Only Peter Lambert (4.50 ERA) has allowed fewer than five earned runs per nine in that time, and he has struggled as a reliever. Even in the context of Coors Field, that’s untenable.

Kyle Freeland is assured of a spot in next year’s rotation. It’s hard to lock in anyone else. Austin Gomber logged 27 starts and 139 innings but posted a 5.50 ERA with a well below-average 14.4% strikeout rate. Antonio Senzatela underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-July and could miss the entire 2024 season.

Germán Márquez also underwent TJS midway through the ’23 campaign. Colorado and Márquez agreed to a two-year, $20MM extension last month that’ll keep him from hitting free agency. That’s a sensible move for the team — if Márquez recaptures his pre-surgery form, he’d be a strong bargain on a $10MM salary in 2025 — but it won’t help the rotation until at least late into next season.

Colorado has relied on a host of depth call-ups and journeymen to plug the back end of the staff with predictable results. Chris Flexen (6.46 ERA) and Chase Anderson (6.13) will be free agents. The Rox could bring either player back at little financial cost, though neither should be guaranteed a spot in the season-opening starting five. Noah Davis, Connor Seabold, Ryan Feltner and Lambert are under club control but better suited for depth roles. Former first-round pick Ryan Rolison has yet to make his MLB debut because of persistent shoulder injuries.

The Rox will need to turn to various avenues of acquisition to add competition. They’re unlikely to play at the top of the free agent market but could target the third or fourth tier — names like Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley or Martín Pérez. Pitching at Coors Field would be a tough sell for a pitcher trying to rebuild his value, but they could try to dangle a guaranteed rotation spot and a decent one-year salary for a rebound flier like Jake Odorizzi or Noah Syndergaard.

It’s a similar story on the trade market. Colorado is in no position to deal controllable talent for shorter-term MLB help. They could still roll the dice on a depth option or two who are squeezed out of another organization, as they did in sending cash to the Red Sox for Seabold last winter.

The bullpen isn’t good, though it’s in comparatively better shape than the rotation. Grounder specialist Jake Bird and hard-throwing righty Justin Lawrence have had impressive 2023 campaigns. Former closer Daniel Bard, whose ’23 season has been derailed by anxiety issues that contributed to significant strike-throwing woes, will probably get a middle innings spot since he’s under contract for $9.5MM.

They’ll count on a full season from Tyler Kinley, who has been limited to 15 appearances after rehabbing from last year’s elbow surgery. While Kinley’s ’23 results are middling, he had a 0.75 ERA in 25 outings before the injury a season ago. He clearly won’t maintain that pace over a full season, but the Rockies can expect better numbers than he has managed in his limited work this year after a healthy offseason.

That group skews heavily toward the right side. Brent Suter, the only southpaw in the late-season bullpen, is an impending free agent. Suter has acclimated well to Coors Field after being claimed off waivers last November, turning in a 3.51 ERA across 66 2/3 frames. General manager Bill Schmidt said before the trade deadline the team could try to keep Suter around for another season or two on an extension. If Suter signs elsewhere, they’ll likely bring in a similar low-cost southpaw via free agency.

Schmidt has also expressed interest in a new deal with Colorado’s top impending free agent: Charlie Blackmon. The 37-year-old indicated last month he was interested in returning for a 14th big league season. The career-long Rockie suggested his preference was to stick in Colorado despite leaving open the possibility of playing elsewhere if the Rox didn’t reciprocate that interest.

Blackmon is no longer an everyday outfielder. He’s still a solid role player who contributes in a right field/designated hitter capacity. The left-handed hitter owns a .276/.367/.432 line across 387 trips to the plate. While his power numbers are down, he’s very tough to strike out and has walked at a career-high 10.1% clip. If Blackmon is willing to accept a pay cut from $15MM to around $5-7MM, the Rockies could try to keep him around.

Colorado already has a few corner outfield/DH hybrids on the roster. Rookie Nolan Jones has arguably been the team’s best performer this season. Acquired from the Guardians for middle infield prospect Juan Brito last November, the lefty-swinging Jones has 17 homers with a .286/.382/.531 slash through 393 trips to the plate. He’s unlikely to continue hitting over .280 unless he cuts his strikeouts from the current 29.8% rate. Still, Jones has demonstrated that his power and plate discipline can play against big league pitching. He’ll be an everyday player, likely in left field.

That’s where Kris Bryant began the season. Colorado’s $182MM signee again suffered through an injury-plagued year, getting into 77 games to date. He has mostly played first base since returning from a broken finger a couple weeks ago. There’s no question Bryant will get a chance to play regularly at the start of next season. Whether that’s at first base or in right field could be determined by whether they retain Blackmon.

Colorado could look for a short-term upgrade in center field. Brenton Doyle has played stellar defense but hasn’t hit at all as a rookie. The 25-year-old has a .198/.249/.322 line while striking out almost 35% of the time in his first 119 contests. Most of the free agents at the position are glove-first veterans, which could be redundant given Doyle’s skillset. Someone like Adam Duvall or Joey Gallo would offer more offensive upside than Doyle and could kick over to right field when the club wants a defense-heavy alignment.

The infield is more set in stone, at least aside from first base. Brendan Rodgers should get another chance at second base after his ’23 campaign was derailed by a Spring Training shoulder dislocation. Ryan McMahon is locked in at third base, where he’s an elite defender. McMahon pairs that with decent offense and is arguably the Rockies’ best overall player.

Ezequiel Tovar will be back at shortstop after a mixed rookie season. He’s one of the most aggressive hitters in the majors, with his swing-heavy approach keeping him to a meager .293 on-base percentage. Yet Tovar has rated as an excellent defensive shortstop and has connected on 15 home runs. He just turned 22 and is surely still seen as a key piece of the future. Aside from perhaps upgrading on Harold Castro as the utility option, the bulk of the infield is established.

First base could be the exception, depending upon the club’s plans with Bryant. Neither Elehuris Montero nor Michael Toglia took hold of the job. If they wanted to add to the mix, they could turn to a rebound free agent (e.g. Ji Man Choi or Garrett Cooper) or look into a non-tender candidate like Rowdy Tellez.

All-Star Game MVP Elias Díaz has held the primary catching job. While his production has dropped off since the Midsummer Classic, the Rox probably have bigger concerns elsewhere. Díaz is due a $6MM salary in the final year of his contract next season. With a thin free agent class at the position, the Rockies could field some trade interest, though it’d probably be modest enough they won’t be motivated to make a move.

Players like McMahon and Rodgers have more appeal. There’s no indication the Rockies want to entertain moving either. McMahon is a key contributor who is signed for four more seasons. Rodgers has had a rough 2023 due primarily to those previously mentioned shoulder troubles, and to move him now would be selling low. With two seasons of remaining arbitration control, Colorado should probably hold him in hopes of a rebound year.

Colorado was a little more willing than they had been previously to deal off short-term assets at the trade deadline, moving impending free agents Pierce Johnson and Brad Hand. They’ve remained steadfastly opposed to a broader teardown. Their resolute belief the organization doesn’t need a major overhaul has extended to the manager chair. Colorado signed Bud Black to an extension in February; he’s under contract through 2024, which would be his eighth season at the helm.

The major league roster doesn’t offer much reason for optimism. No matter what they do this winter, they’re going to enter 2024 as the likely last-place team in the NL West. Hope for the longer-term outlook is rooted in a farm system that has improved in two-plus years under Schmidt.

Colorado has three prospects who appeared among Baseball America’s recent Top 50 minor league talents. Middle infielder Adael Amador and corner outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez have each reached Double-A at age 20. Ninth overall pick Chase Dollander is the highest-upside arm to enter the farm system in some time. They’ll secure another high draft choice next summer.

None of that group is likely to make much of an impact in 2024 and Colorado’s farm system is still middle-of-the-pack unit overall. Yet it’s at least possible to envision a competitive group of position players emerging within the next few seasons, particularly if Tovar takes a step forward in his second big league campaign. On the other hand, the long-term pitching outlook is still very questionable.

Colorado’s payroll picture isn’t quite as bleak as it was six months ago. The bulk of the money in the Nolan Arenado trade has finally been paid out, with Colorado’s remaining commitments consisting of $5MM annually over the next two seasons. Blackmon’s salary would drop if he returns; C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk are off the books.

The organization looks a little better off than it did at this time last winter. It’s a slow process, though, one that looks likely to lead to a modest offseason and another poor record in 2024.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Rockies-centric chat on 9-25-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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