The Pirates and right-hander Mitch Keller have previously discussed a contract extension as recently as this spring, and while no deal got done back then, it appears those talks could continue with the offseason on the horizon. As relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Keller recently spoke openly about his desire to hammer out a long-term deal with the Pirates. “Hopefully this offseason we can get something going with extension talks,” Keller said. “I would love to be part of it and be here for however many years. I think we have a really good window here to really do something special.”
It’s easy to see why the Pirates would have interest in locking up Keller, as the 27-year-old righty has proven to be a steadying presence in the club’s starting rotation over the past two seasons, with a 4.08 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 353 1/3 innings of work with a 23% strikeout rate. A first-time All Star in 2023, Keller posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.32 FIP while striking out 26.7% of batters faced in the first half. While the wheels came off for Keller when he allowed a 5.59 ERA over his final 13 starts of the season, the talent he flashed in the first half is that of a mid-rotation arm or better. That’s a particularly valuable commodity for a Pirates team that sports a core dominated by hitters like Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Endy Rodriguez.
More from around the NL Central…
- Pittsburgh’s loss to the Marlins this evening officially eliminated the Cubs from postseason contention, and plenty of criticism from fans and media has been levied toward club manager David Ross as the club’s playoff odds steadily sunk from a high-water mark of 92% in early September. Despite that outside criticism, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently stood by his manager, telling reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that “People are going to ask you about your bad decisions 100 times more than they’re going to ask about your good decisions. That is the job… I’m looking at ‘What can you do better and keep learning?’” With Hoyer defending his manager, it seems likely that Ross will return for the 2024 campaign, which is the final guaranteed season of his contract. The Cubs hold a club option on his services for the 2025 season.
- Brewers left-hander Eric Lauer returned to the club today more than three months after being optioned to the minors back in June. As noted by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Lauer was shut down for much of the summer due to issues in both of his shoulders and his left elbow. Lauer returned to the big leagues for a start against the Cubs this evening, but the lefty allowed eight runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings of work, ballooning his season ERA to 6.56 across ten appearances (nine starts). Between Lauer’s struggles and increasing price in arbitration, Hogg notes that it “seems unlikely” Lauer will return to Milwaukee in 2024. If today marks the end of Lauer’s time with the Brewers, he’ll depart with a career 4.05 ERA (102 ERA+) in 331 innings since being acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in exchange for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies.
The Grisham / Lauer trade turned out to be a nothingburger.
Lauer was fairly good in 2021-2022
Grish put up and .808 and .740 OPS with GGand possibly a 3rd.
Davies had a career year in 2020 helping to a playoff with a .273 ERA.
That’s something.
I hope Lauer has something in the tank to make a career even if as a back end starter.
Brewers lost in that trade. Uriaa was supposed to turn in to a much needed hitter on the roster, but he went the way of HR or nothing like near all Brewers hitters since 2019.
Lauer was just a lefty who got by being one. Hitters for whatever reason struggle vs LHP. Especially Brewer lineups. Lol. Grisham and Davies stay in Milw half season more they get a better trade return then what they got.
The criticism of Ross is ridiculous. The bullpen he was given to start the year, was mostly garbage. Even though it performed fairly well through the middle of the season, there wasn’t much depth, and once they had injuries they were in trouble. The last 2 weeks, there was no dependable arms to go with. Starters were not getting out of the 6th for the most part. Jed did not do enough in the off-season or the trade deadline to strengthen it. Starting pitching was average at best, and Stroman was not a factor after the month of June. I hope he and most of the coaches are back. I think they did a good job with a team that had holes, Pitching should be the main focus in the off-season.
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For what he had to work with, Ross did a pretty good job. My only issue was that he overworked some of the guys when he did have fresh arms down the stretch that he could have used instead in games where the chances were unlikely of a win. There was a time or two where he could have used Thompson (not used at all when he was called up to take Azolay’s spot) and instead used Smyly and Wesineski. That, and mid season he would take the starter out too quick (and at times not soon enough) and that contributed to the workload of the thin bullpen.
But he did not have a ton to work with and brought some meaningful September baseball back to Chicago. Not bad for a team that was projected to end up at the bottom of the standings.
The criticism of Ross isn’t ridiculous, this was a very talented but poorly managed team.
The last month of the season Ross showed his true colors, he showed no faith in the rookies, Little didn’t give up a run all year but was used only as a last resort. He refused to use Canario while trotting out Wisdom every time a lefty took the mound. He never gave PCA a shot to do anything except pinch run and bunt. With the season on the line, instead of putting what clearly would have been the best line up out (using Candalario at third, Bellinger at first) he played Mastrobouni and Wisdom at third.
The pen was an issue but that is where the manager makes his money, no pen is lights out. It’s all about figuring out the best match ups based on who’s coming up, who’s coming out of the game and what you have.
Ross lost faith in the bullpen which was evident by his over use of certain guys and shelving others. That’s also the reason the Cubs pen melted down in so many games, because Ross failed to instill any confidence in the majority of the relievers.
Ross also, while in full panic mode, failed to recognize Steele wearing down. He pitched way more innings than he ever has and instead of pushing him back or skipping a start, like he should have when Stro came off the IL, he kept running him out.
From personnel decisions, Hoyer made several mistakes as well signing Mancini to start was a really dumb move and I never liked bring back Smyly (let along giving him multiple years), DFA Barnhart was dumb. Yes, he wasn’t giving the Cubs anything on offense but he still could have been utilized to help get the staff ready, game planning and occasionally giving Gomes a little more rest.
Back to Ross, his constant changing of battery mates was also a mistake. The best course of action is to give a pitcher a catcher, especially when you have a young guy like Amaya learning to handle staff. It blew my mind, consider Ross made millions off being Lester’s catcher, he didn’t realize that fact.
PCA looked unimpressive in the show… definitely has some maturing that is still needed.
“Unimpressive”? What did you expect? He wasn’t given anything but a few sporadic ABs and late game defensive replacement shots.
Canario should have been played more as well. You’re looking at a guy that teams had no book on with light tower power and was red hot when he was called up. He easily could have been a difference maker
Agree with your thoughts drascoo – except regarding Barnhart. The Cubs sort of ‘gave’ Hendricks, Amaya so Amaya could learn to handle the staff. You have to start somewhere. And Barnhart on the roster only took away from Amaya’s opportunities.
IMO, bringing along Amaya in the way they did, should start paying off next year (assuming he stays healthy). I actually thought it was one of the few things that Ross got, right.
I would have kept Barnhart to give Gomes an occasional day. As you said, Amaya worked with Hendricks and should have remained that way but I would have tossed Barnhart in from time to time to spell Gomes and help Amaya with game planning as well as work with pitchers between starts. The Cubs bench wasn’t properly utilized anyway, keeping him with Morel being the super utility guy made sense.
Again, I wouldn’t have played him but once every other week or so, get away day with a day off, I’d probably have Barnhart start those games to give Gomes an extra days rest while Amaya could still grow. Just my own personal opinion on the matter.
Barnhart was never signed to be a bat, he was just signed for his defense. So any offense he gave you was gravy. I’d like to forget that I said the Cubs should get rid of Amaya but I haven’t seen him play in 3 years so my bad for shooting my mouth off before I looked. He looks like in those 3 years off he not only got taller but filled out also so it’s nice to see him poised to succeed and what the Cubs actually saw in him in the first place. He’s just as good with the glove as Barnhart so the decision to dump him really wasn’t a big deal. They probably gave Barnhart the extra year to get him to come here for sure so just the cost of doing business I guess. Aliendo and Opitz and hopefully they can talk Higgins into coming back to Iowa for depth. Aliendo has the bat and Opitz has the glove so C looks taken care of for awhile depending on whatever Ballesteros becomes. They have other C prospects as well. Barnhart didn’t bother me nearly as much as Hosmer even though he cost more. Mancini totally shocked me the way he fell off a cliff.
I don’t care as much about the glove as I do about the game prep/management. Martin Maldonado is one the best true catchers in the game when it comes to developing and getting the most out a pitching staff and his “framing” and overall defense was poor this year. Still landed the vast majority of the Astros playing time behind the dish.
True, But if Ross and Gomes can’t teach Amaya, Or at least prep him to do that on a game by game basis, Then Ross truly is worthless.
Yep, the BP was a mess. But Ross made a number of bonehead decision throughout the year. He should be a base coach. He’s out of his depth as a big league manager and we’ll have Hoyer’s blind loyalty to thank when he isn’t fired.
Don’t think the Cubbies are going to make the playoffs tho there still might be time. Maybe they can trade Bellinger and Stroman and getting something back heh
Belinger and Stroman have play options, so both can be free agents. No trade value for either at this juncture.
He’s a Sox fan who’s a troll. Just move on. The Cubs don’t really need the prospects they would’ve gotten back. They have prospects up and down the system with 21 draft picks and International signings to come still. He’s just jealous the Sox have zero.
Yeah, Sox can’t do much these days, might as well be a jerk to Cubs fans.. They couldn’t even give away tickets, and got a nice 100th loss yesterday.
Everybody pretty much knows where I stand. I don’t really care if Stroman stays or goes. Hendricks is not worth that money and can be replaced IMO. I disagree with mike 127 and I think it would be a major victory for the Cubs if Morel can stay at 3rd and only 3rd. If that happens I think a couple of bullpen arms could do the trick. The main problem then is closer. They need somebody reliable to step or step up from the system. Alzolay can be the guy you turn to if your other closer goes down for a while but a closer needs to be a stud. I’m sure the Cubs have that guy, I just don’t think he’s going to show up next year. I’m not sure Ross is the guy either. But I doubt he gets fired so Cubs have a lot of the right pieces, They just need somebody to push the right buttons. Another interesting winter I think.
Unc–please, please, please–it is not my mission in life to not have Morel play 3b—he just can’t at the major league level—and it is obviously the Cubs see it that way to.
Look at their options this year: Madrigal, Mastrobuoni, Wisdom and then Candelario—he played their base ahead of NONE of them–and none of them are elite fielding third basemen.
Fact is, even with small sample sizes–Morel’s fielding percentages at 3B were .918 last year and .857 this year. Do you not realize how incredibly pathetic that is? That’s five errors in 180 innings. That’s an error every four games, which is 40 errors in a season. At 3B he has seven assists to every one error.
To put that in perspective, Madrigal who had NEVER played 3B before this season–college/minors/pro–posted a .977 fielding pct and had a 31 to 1 ratio of assists to errors.
For my money–Stroman and Hendricks are MUST come back guys–for this reason. The Cards have NO pitching, the Brewers are losing Counsell and Burnes and core are going to be major trade candidates next July–this is their last hurrah this month.
I’m guessing Wicks and Taillon are penciled in behind Steele—you have to put Stroman in there–if Hendricks is your number 5, then you are pretty good. There are a lot of nice arms in the system—but if you remember 2016–one of the huge keys to that season is that they trotted out Lackey and Hammel at four and five almost 60 times.
The scary part about your scenario is that Wicks and Taillon are 2-3—–they need to be 3-4 or 3-5.
Here’s my dream winter scenario: the Padres are serious about reducing payroll and the Cubs do the reverse trade with them and empty a portion of the farm and get Machado to play third base. His bat replaces Bellinger’s and you get a gold glove type 3B to join Dansby and Nico.
Side note—in a very painful kind of way—I think Josh Hader moved WAY up on the Cubs free agent target board these last two weeks.
Mike127, yeah Hendricks and Stroman coming back for one additional season would work out perfectly with the Cubs timeline for their pitching development schedule.
Horton should be ready for prime time after the all star break in 2024. He could then help in the bullpen- or start, if necessary. That would be the ideal way to bring him along in my opinion.
I love Assad and believe he deserves to start next year, however as a security measure, I’d have him begin 2024 in high leverage situations. I also feel the Cubs main target this offseason should be the bullpen. I’m not a Machado fan, I’d rather see the Cubs try to trade for a valuable short term fix until the minor league system provides one.
Morel and Happ would be the guys I’d dangle as trade chips to move towards those goals.
Dog—I know that Shaw is coming and probably the 3b of the future–and I’m 100% with you a short term fix if it is there while (I think) this division is going to be potentially weaker the next couple years. The Brewers will lose that top of the rotation pitching (and probably Cousell) and the Cardinals just plain stink with almost no pitching at all.
My thought of Machado is purely wish, thinking that Bellinger will leave, and despite the handful of guys hitting 20+ homers—the Cubs really lack a bonafide power hitter.
I’m with you on the bullpen and as dumb as I think it is to sign that big name closer to big money, longer term if you rewind just one year ago today—I think we were somewhat confident in these names: Wesneski, Sampson, Assad, Thompson, Hughes….and then—-Sampson no good, Wesneski not very good, Hughes hurt, then hurt again, etc; Keegan couldn’t throw strikes anymore. Only Assad proved valuable, but we can’t forget his horrific start that sent him out of the rotation, down to the minors and contributed to our early season hole.
I’m sorry guys, but Stroman’s a head case. And which one would you get? They can’t afford to bring back the guy who was horrendous the whole second half. This is a pretty strong FA class for starters and BP. I’d like to see them spend for Jordan Montgomery. That’s the kind of #3 guy who would stabilize the whole rotation. Not Stroman.
Ron, I wouldn’t call Stroman a head case, and even if I did – Cubs need him or someone like him for the beginning of next season until we find out when Horton can contribute and where Wicks and Assad are in their development.
Adding Montgomery would potentially give the Cubs 3 LH SPs, I don’t think they want to go there. Plus I don’t think they’d be in a hurry to hand out another longer term contract to a SP, after the questionable commitment they made to Taillon. I’d just bring back Hendricks for another year.
You guys keep talking about Machado when he’s having TJ surgery and who knows when he’ll be able to even PLAY 3B!. You keep saying Stroman is a head case and you want to bring in the ULTIMATE head case! Wow. Machado has tanked every team he’s been on and you want to replace Bellinger with him? Give me Morel any day and 3 times on Sunday. Morel has the ability, He just needs to be trained and then left in one position. A good Fielding coach would go a long way. As far as spending money on Montgomery why? Crap I’d rather have Hendricks back for one year than spend more useless money on a LH starter when we have a whole system of them. and 2 in the rotation probably for next year. Spend, Spend, Spend. Why? Why don’t you want to see what they’ve got first? We don’t know what Little will be yet. Starter , Reliever? The only way to find out is let them play. If Ross isn’t the guy to train Morel and figure out the pitching staff then move on.
Unc–I respect the hell out of you but here are Morel’s minor league fielding percentages at third base. What you are insisting on is like training a dog to meow—it’s not going to happen. He’s done it for six + years now with NO success.
2017– .900
2018– .920
2019– .922
2021– .879
2022 — .800 (before call up_ Jeezus— .800 !!!!
There is not even an outlier anywhere that suggests that he can play third base.
The brewers are not losing burnes. They still have one more year of control of him.
Dlaur—that is my point—with one year of control of Burnes, the Brewers are losing him on July 31st of next year or sooner. He will be one of the major trade targets whether or not the Brewers are in the race.
mike- I just been saying all along that Morel needs to go to AZ this off season and just work at being an IF with an emphasis on 3B. He needs to work on his footwork and throwing mainly as the 2 go hand in hand. He only needs to be adequate at worst so that his bat scores more runs than his fielding gives up. What he needs most of all is a coach. I mean Green obviously either doesn’t have the time or whatever the reason is that he’s not getting it done. He has the ABILITY, He just needs to work at it it. He keeps saying he doesn’t want to be a DH. Well, This is his off season to prove it. We’ll see what Jed thinks this winter, Whether he thinks they need a 3B or not. I know one thing, They don’t need Machado who’s the biggest jerk in baseball IMO.
David Ross couldn’t manage a high school team. Here’s an example, a couple days ago Acuña on second base as the winning run in the 10th inning Albies up with one out, everyone would walk him to set up a possible double play right, but no, not Dave. Two pitches later a base hit to right, Acuna scores and the Cubs lose. Dave is not a good manager, Jed is not a good president of baseball operations , so yes Dave will be back. After Bellinger leaves they take a big step backwards. Ross seems to have soured on Morel and has hurt his development. Sure the pitching slumped at the end of the year but some of that might’ve been the way Dave used them by calling on the same guys night after night after night. If SF can dump Kapler maybe the Cubs will wake up and say goodbye to Ross
Ross and Hottovy did a great job managing the bullpen in 20,21 and 22. Hoyer always got him a closer to work with, Kimbrel, Robertson etc.. I thought it was really odd he picked this year to break the trend and leave them hanging in the breeze. Hoyer is as much to blame as Ross and Hottovy, They can only play who they’ve got. Plus at the deadline his only addition was Cuas who was basically a yo-yo between good and bad. Ross hasn’t proven himself the best manager or the worst either, But this is the first year he actually had a competitive roster and a full spring training to work with. A new manager just has to start over and with a young team might not be the best idea. I’d give him at least 1 more year.
Ross totally burnt these guys out. By early September they were playing on fumes. Alzolay getting hurt didn’t help – but was he hurt from overuse? Leiter was burnt out also. And toward the end of the season, with basically no chance of making the playoffs, Ross started using Assad every other day – remember Assad pitched in the WBC, and had already thrown more pitches than at anytime in his career.
Little sat unused even after showing he deserved an opportunity – why – because Ross doesn’t use young players unless he absolutely has to. The Cubs have a ton of young talent on the doorstep – I don’t trust Ross to have the guts – or the know how, to develop them properly.
I would really like to hope the Pirates and Keller can come to an agreement. I know Bob Nutting is cheap, and I’ll be the first to admit that, but credit where credit is due. Him and the front office have now broken the franchise record for most expensive contract two years in a row now, are no longer a team who has never signed an $100 million contract, and spent over $35 million on free agents+trade acquisitions last off-season.
Interesting point but what about the second half?
Earlier in the year I was thinking four years at $50-60 M total.Granted,Shelton left him in too long when he did not have his stuff,and he was still a stud a number of times,but which Keller would you get?
I do not think that the Pirate really have a choice so I would go with that offer and hope that he holds up.It would be a marketing gaffe if they did not at least try and it is not like they have a lot of quality starters.
Keller was outstanding for over a year from May 2022 through July 2023. Keller still had a handful of Good stats in the second half, just a few clunkers he didn’t have in the first half. I still believe May 2022-July 2023 Keller is the real Keller. Keep in mind this is the most innings he’s ever pitched.
I’d say that 4-5 yrs for $60-65 million would probably get it done.
I agree, that should at least keep the parties interested. I’d go as high as $15 million AAV if we’re talking about a 6th year, which would make him a free agent just shy of his 34th birthday. By then, he might not be worth that – but teams can get creative with incentives, opt outs, options, etc. to get it done while also keeping the costs at a reasonable level.
They might also be able to strike while the iron is hot with Oviedo, leveling off his salary through arbitration while giving him a pretty big raise next year in return for something like $6 million AAV for the next 5 years – which could be a steal if he continues his trajectory – and still somewhat tradable if he doesn’t.
Pundit and mlb- My guess is that neither Keller or his agent nor the Pirates would want to go over four years.This buys out two free agent years but he would still be young enough to get a semi ridiculous offer from one of the many teams that do so.He would still be in his early 30’s at that point.
What it does do though is make him a guaranteed wealthy young man.
$60M May be too much based on his expected arbitration salaries of $20M total but they may have to pay in the $50-60 M range to keep him.
Otherwise he will probably be gone after next year as they will trade him to get something for him and not just a draft choice.
If they go 4-60 or somewhere in that neighborhood, I can’t imagine Keller wouldn’t listen. I don’t think the Pirates will start there, I would expect the 4-year offer to be somewhere between 45-50, hoping to land around 55 total, which would be pretty fair for both sides.
If Keller decides to bet on himself, you’re right, he’ll be on the block after next season, maybe even at the deadline if 2024 goes south for the Pirates. If that happens, let’s hope it’s a little better than the Taillon deal (which wasn’t that bad – but too much of a miss in retrospect for a guy like Keller).
I agree with your assessment.Taillon did not net much unless Roansy rights his ship.Cole only got Musgrove who is a good pitcher but I think that NH was afraid that Cole would get hurt and not get anything for him.
Signing Keller May help to get other free agents.
Next year is a key for Shelton and BC especially if Nutting starts shelling out real money,
I agree Ross couldn’t manage a high school team. He is terrible and needs to go, but that isn’t going to happen. Absolutely, the bullpen way bad and injured down the stretch. However, good managers find a way to squeak out a win or two which by the way would have made a huge difference. At the same time, Ross has no feel for the game or what pitchers to use in the right spots. Everybody could see for the last 6-8 weeks that Leiter has been terrible and when he did succeed he was very lucky. So one of our biggest losses was to bring him into close in Cincinnati. As soon as he walked out I knew we lost. Also, in the last two weeks I would be using my starters, who have bullpen days in between starts, to get those innings in during the game. Merryweather was coasting and then he rested him an entire week. When he came back his control was all over the place.
Let’s talk about offense. Lineup shifting a joke. I like different looks every now and then, but once Susuki got hot and stayed hot why is he hitting 6th most of the time? Morel…..so much promise and excited for his future. However, batting 1st and 3rd when he is striking out at high rate makes no sense especially when he is in one of his 3 for 30 funks. Put him at bottom and not put him in prime spot. Example, 2nd and 3rd against the Mets in the 9th inning and one out. Morel hitting 1st. I don’t care what he did the entire game, but Gomes your most clutch hitter all year getting night off. Use him. Instead, Gomes sits, Morel strikeouts watching pitch down the middle. Another example of one game maybe making a difference. Candario….brought up September 1 and gets one AB September 6th. Doesn’t start until September 19th. I have no clue if he can handle the big dance but he had great first start with grand slam. So we sit him another 10 days. Ross has no clue. When you are struggling like we were in September play the hot hand. All the 1 and 2 run losses not just bullpen. Offense struggled and we had a stubborn and arrogant manager who refused to make changes when needed. He has no feel for a game at all and that is why we went from 92% playoff odds to being eliminated. You have to beat teams like Pittsburg, Colorado and not lose 6 out of 7 to Arizona along with losing 4 extra inning games in the last couple of weeks.
As a manager, leader, general etc. message to the players/troops- keep your head down and continue to grind, especially when we are talking 162. Ross yapping sets a bad example, and is in the management 101 handbook. He needs a course taught by Leyland or Torre but I doubt he will change. Time to move on cub nation.
Going back to the preseason predictions, no one had the Cubs being in contention. They had a good run.
Ross does a decent job with the half roster he’s been given. Managers just deal with the media and keep the clubhouse in peace these days. Everyone knows its the spreadsheets that set the lineup each night and make the pitching changes.
Wasn’t Keller complaining about elbow pain towards the end of his last start? That’s what I heard when I was listening to the Phillies game on the radio at least. It sounded ominous enough.
Turns out he just hit his funny bone on the follow through of a pitch. Just went numb for a bit, wasn’t serious at all.