Despite Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds giving Atlanta (100%), Los Angeles (100%), Milwaukee (98.7%), Philadelphia (96.3%), and Chicago (78%) better than 75% odds of making the playoffs, play in the National League closed this evening with the NL Wild Card race looking as tight as ever thanks to the third and final spot.
Four teams sport winning percentages of .511, putting all of them in an effective tie for the third Wild Card spot behind the Phillies and Cubs. With less than a month to go in the schedule, it’s increasingly likely that only one of Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and San Francisco will join the aforementioned five clubs in the postseason this year. Let’s take a look at each of those four clubs, as things stand for them headed into the stretch run:
San Francisco Giants, 70-67 (48.9% playoff odds)
The Giants established themselves as contenders back in June with a fantastic 18-8 record that month and have managed to stay within spitting distance of a playoff spot ever since. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that excellent June is the last month the club posted a winning record. The club has gone just 24-31 since the beginning of July, with their playoff odds dropping from 69.2% down to 47.8% during that stretch. Injuries to key players like Michael Conforto and Anthony DeSclafani have left the club playing at less than full strength, but a bigger problem for the club is the rapidly declining offense: since July 1, the club’s 77 wRC+ is the second worst figure in the majors ahead of only the Rockies.
On the other hand, the club sports a strong if unconventional pitching staff highlighted by ace Logan Webb, veteran Alex Cobb, rookie Kyle Harrison, and closer Camilo Doval that is further bolstered by the excellent defense provided by rookie catcher Patrick Bailey. With that solid run prevention group, it’s easy to see how the Giants could make the playoffs if key offensive contributors like Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada can return to the success they showed earlier in the season. Outside of seven games against the Dodgers, San Francisco’s remaining schedule is fairly soft, which should help them in their pursuit of the final NL playoff spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 70-67 (33.3% playoff odds)
A surprise early season contender, the Diamondbacks dominated the NL West throughout the first half, holding sole possession of first place in their division as late into the season as July 8 thanks to a strong offensive core of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker along with a strong pair of starters at the top of their rotation in righties Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Unfortunately for Arizona, their hold on the division lead would vanish over the next month as the club posted a 5-21 record over their next 26 games that was nothing short of disastrous. Despite the trade deadline coming directly in the middle of that awful stretch, Arizona’s front office added outfielder Tommy Pham and closer Paul Sewald to the floundering club, and the team has responded by going 13-7 since their skid came to an end.
With all of the club’s key players healthy headed into the stretch run, the Diamondbacks are perhaps the biggest question mark in this race. Was their brutal month of play, where they looked like one of the worst teams in baseball, simply a fluke? Or was it the beginning of the end for an underdog team projected for a 78-84 record when the season began? With 12 of their final 25 games coming against teams with a record of .500 or better, Arizona won’t have a particularly easy schedule to make use of as they try to secure their first playoff berth since 2017.
Miami Marlins, 70-67 (26.5% playoff odds)
The Marlins’ 2023 campaign has been a strange one. Earlier in the year, the club was carried by the bats of Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler and a historic record in one-run games. Much like the last two teams discussed, the months of July and August were difficult for Miami, as the club posted a record of just 19-32 while Soler (.697 OPS in July) and Arraez (.580 OPS in August) slumped badly. Fortunately, the club received offensive reinforcements at the trade deadline in the form of Jake Burger and Josh Bell, both of whom have posted strong results since joining the Marlins. What’s more, Alcantara has looked more like himself of late, with a 3.04 ERA in his last 77 innings of work.
While Soler hasn’t played in recent days due to injury, the offense is in a good place thanks to the contributions of Burger and Bell, while the rotation led by Alcantara, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, and Edward Cabrera has been characteristically excellent. Perhaps Miami’s biggest obstacle in returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020 is the schedule: of the club’s final 25 games, the Marlins will face the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies in sixteen of them.
Cincinnati Reds, 71-68 (16% playoff odds)
The Reds are perhaps the most surprising team of this quartet. The club’s success this season has been fueled almost entirely by a youth movement that began early in the season. While shortstop Elly De La Cruz hasn’t quite been the offensive force he was expected to be in his rookie season, infielder Matt McLain and starter Andrew Abbott have been nothing short of sensational. What’s more, other youngsters like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Brandon Williamson have contributed in significant ways, to say nothing of contributions from more established players like TJ Friedl, Hunter Greene, Joey Votto, and Alexis Diaz.
While the Reds slumped badly to a 10-17 record in August, only six of the club’s final 23 games are against clubs with a record better than .500, given them plenty of opportunity to go on a run. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, between a rash of injuries and an outbreak of COVID-19, the Reds have a whopping 16 players on the injured list, including key players like Greene, McLain, Williamson, and Votto. With a pair of the club’s biggest bats and most reliable rotation arms out of commission for the foreseeable future, the Reds’ outlook is far hazier than it otherwise may have been.
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How does the readership of MLBTR think the race for the final NL Wild Card will shake out over the next month? Will one of the NL West clubs hold on to claim the spot that for much of the season they looked to be a shoo-in for? Will the Marlins overcome their brutal September schedule to emerge victorious? Or can the Reds navigate a wave of injuries to squeak into the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013?
(poll link for app users)
With the way the Phillies pitching has been lately they could totally miss out.
Also have 7 games left against the Braves. Who knows how motivated the Braves will be for those 2 series, especially if the division is clinched by then, but certainly worth noting.
They are up 5.5 — have the cardinals marlins padres and pirates to play also … they are in.
I’m not saying I’m predicting it, but let’s say hypothetically that the Braves are still motivated to win both their series against the Phillies and, again hypothetically, the Phillies go something 2-5 in those games. That would give them almost zero margin for error. The Marlins will still have something to play for, the Padres might too. Stranger things have happened. Would I bet on the Phillies missing the playoffs all together? No. But I don’t think it’s impossible by any stretch.
The Padres are 5.5 behind this quartet.
SD has a run differential of 62.
SF, Cin, Mia, and AZ have a combined run differential of -112.
Being a Padres fan is misery.
Could be worse… you could be a Pirates or A’s fan.
A’s Pirates fans don’t have to worry about awful mega contracts. A’s fans seen a lot of winning seasons. Pirates fans might be about to with their farm system. They had a good run 2012 to 2019. Rebuilds are tuff but it was desperately needed.
The Pirates and A’s cut almost all salary and currently stand in the top 5 most profitable teams in the league due to profit sharing embezzlement and an empty suit commissioner… worrying about mega contracts would be a huge step up for us. The A’s history is less depressing than the Pirates but they’ve been stripped for parts and are about to move over 500 miles away, I think most fans would rather be in Pittsburgh’s shoes right now.
Hayes and Reynolds are mega contracts for the Bucs and neither has started well.
Pittsburgh is run close to how I would run a team. Big fan. They should be solid to good for the foreseeable future. If they can improve player development some more look out. Oakland the future isn’t as bright. They made some weak trades and the ones they did ok on at the time didn’t pan out. Still prefer them to SD. Really hate the contracts they give out.
Both contracts were team friendly bargains when given and still look that way today. Most likely easy wins but they are such small amounts they won’t have any drastic effect if the players stop producing.
I wouldn’t be wild about being a Mets fan either. =D
Couldn’t take being Yankees Angels fan along with the Mets. Red Sox Royals haven’t impressed me. Tigers Rockies have been horrible but see what new management can do.
Or Tigers
I voted Reds for no other reason that I like them. Take that over in depth analysis.
The Padres leave more men on second base than Taylor Swift.
This made me laugh so hard….
Well said.
So, shouldn’t the game balls for their games be blue?
I still think SD has a shot. It’s a lot of teams to jump over, but the run differential for the Padres suggests they are a much better team than these other teams.
I wouldn’t count them out even though their odds are slim. With 25 games to go, they have 9 games remaining against OAK, COL, and CWS. They pretty much need to sweep them and win series’ against WC rivals.
Padres lost Musgrove and Darvish. They have the worst percentage of bringing home runners in scoring position. They won’t make the post season.
4TF:
Is there any reason to believe failing to bring home runners in scoring position is an inherent trait of the Padres anspd not just random variation?
If so, what is that reason?
The Padres also lose all extra inning games, and almost all 1 run games
VSDF:
Is there a problem with your ability to use English verb tenses correctly or with your understanding of variation in baseball?
The Padres HAVE LOST all their extra inning games.
This verb tense is used for something that has occurred in the past and continues until the present
Here’s more info.
ef.edu/english-resources/english-grammar/present-p….
The Padres LOSE all Extra inning games
This verb tense is used to express general truths
Here is more information
ef.edu/english-resources/english-grammar/simple-pr….
So, the question is, is the Padres’ extra inning record a general truth or a past situation that is still occurring.
This is where understanding of baseball comes in
Is there any reason to believe that the Padres are incapable of winning in extra innings?
They haven’t won, but does that mean that they cannot? They’ve won games – that would seem ro indicate that they could win in extra innings. They can pitch shut out innings – that is something helpful in winning extra inning games. They can strand runners – something helpful in winning extra inning games. They can score runners from on base – something that helps to win extra inning games. They can multiple runs in one inning – also helpful in winning extra inning games.
There does not appear to be any reason that they cannot win an extra inning game
Thus, it’s not correct to say that the Padres lose all extra inning games (a general truth), but rather we should say the Padres have not won any extra inning games (a past event that continues to the present).
They must not think so. Couldn’t use any of those players the ohio teams claimed?
That’s a tough schedule ahead of them and to get to 88 wins they would have to win out.
The Marlins, Reds and D’backs are all on pace to win 83 games, the Giants 82, at their current winning %. Chances are at least one will beat that by a game or two, so 84, 85 wins is what will probably take the last WC berth. But even if 83 wins is enough, the Padres would need to go 6 and 18 in their final 24. That’s probably their best-case scenario. IMO, the Padres have no shot.
I don’t know who’s gonna win
I WANT the
1) Reds
2) Marlins
3&4)GiaBacks
I know the WC rankings in this article are based on random numbers
Cue Jim mora : playoffs? Playoffs?!
Who says the cubs are going to be a WC team?
Mathematical odds.
What happens on the field trumps mathematical odds.
If you are trying to make a point you are really sloppy at it. The article doesn’t say the Cubs are definitely in the playoffs. You might think 78% is high but it acknowledges they might not make it.
MLB and owners-greedy.
There should not be 2nd and 3rd wildcards, otherwise why do you play 162 when that’s the true test. Expanded play-offs are pure greed by MLB and owners,. Imagine you have gutsed it out all year, you win your division, and then you’re faced with a 3 game craps shootout like the Cardinals in 2022 and knocked out, it’s an absolute farce and a joke.
The bar was lowered, and also what is farcical is that the teams that played the best all year sit around for 4 days, if you’re a hitter the last thing you want to do is sit around if you’re seeing the ball like a watermelon, you want to play, a 4 day sit down is advantageous to the teams playing. A hitter’s timing can go out in those 4 days.
Hand eye contact sports like baseball, tennis, cricket, golf, the hitters or batters or golfers or tennis players need to be hitting/playing, not playing simulated games or doing bp as a warm up to a game where you can be knocked out. It is ridiculous.
The 5-team format was fine, but MLB expanded postseason without expansion of teams. They should be doing that as it’s been 25 years and counting.
Here’s a thought; 8 teams on both sides make it in. First place teams get all-home games in a best of 5 versus 8-seed. Second place team plays 1 road game, the rest at home. The higher seeds will most likely be rested, start the playoffs on the Monday after the final Sunday game.
Crime Dog:
As a baseball fan I must also be greedy
I want to see more baseball and expanded playoffs provide that
Expanded playoffs water down the meaning of the regular season. Part of the beauty of baseball has long been how difficult it is to make the playoffs. Only good teams made it, unlike the NBA, where a <.500 team always seems to make it. I don't want more baseball for the sake of more baseball, neither do I want a team that can barely win half of its regular season games to have a shot at the title. That should be earned by more than a month of getting hot.
I agree hydrax. I just don’t like this 6-team format with top teams sitting out for about a week. 4 was fine, 5 was fine, but I would rather 8 than 6. But there must be expansion in the league.
@filihok
Just let all teams play then and shorten the season. No need for 162 games-it is pointless.
It’s your problem if you’re greedy.
Crime Dog
I don’t actually think I’m greedy. I just like watching baseball and think more is better than less. I assume they’re are other people who feel the same. I’m doing it for them. See how giving I am.
Ideally, the regular season championship would mean more. And then, sure, all the teams can play in the tournament
It’d be awesome to see people’s heads explode when the A’s win every now and then.
The PO format is ridiculous. An 87-game winner in the WS while three 100+ winners are at home. It is all about greed, about the extra money the owners make from commercials. If the owners are going to keep on letting more teams in – and I don’t even want to know how many more teams will be allowed in once expansion hits – the 12 teams should be seeded. Right now, Braves-1, Dodgers-2, Orioles -3, etc.How hypocritical is it that every one plays everyone during the season, then their divided back up into American and National leagues. I like the balanced schedule but because of it, there is now just one league. But I think seeding is the answer. That way a team like the Mets with over 100 wins don’t get knocked by a team they might play in the division or championship series
So I take it everyone who is belly-aching about the Playoff schedule was a fan of the Dodgers or Mets or Braves last season? Can you not tell me those teams were knocked out because they were flawed teams or that they got cold at the wrong time? (And by all accounts teams with the First Round Bye relished those 3 or 4 off days to rest their tired & beat up players. Sure didn’t slow Houston down.) You want to win in the postseason?? Stay hot, execute; and be healthy. People who complain about the postseason format are just whining & making excuses for their teams who bombed out & fizzled in the playoffs. Play better.
@Avenger65
The team that won a WS with 88 won their division, the team that got knocked out with 100 wins did not win their division, possibly the team you follow-the Mets. As for other 87 game entrants, if they win their division with 87 it’s fair enough, if they’re a 2nd and 3rd wildcard, then no, they shouldn’t be in the post. But since Manfraud and the owners are already expanding it and cheapening the real test in baseball, then you may as well just let all teams play and shorten the season, because the real test of achievements all year for 162 games is lost at this point of MLB and expanded play offs.
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Go & do your own research and ask any baseball player whether they want to sit around for 4 days and not play, and the effect those 4 days off might have on hitting mechanics in particular-you obviously haven’t heard of a ‘hitting streak’.. Go and poll 100 players at any level, if you come back and tell me that your poll was 70/30 60/40 for sitting around twiddling thumbs or doing bp or playing simulated games for 4 days, I’ll say you didn’t poll anyone that’s played the game. Imagine sitting around for 4 days after you’ve played 162 games and not getting cold, ask Keith Hernandez and his views or Pedro Martinez, they don’t think it’s right, they must be ‘belly-aching’ too. Have a nice day.
Avenger
Why do owners make so much money from the extra playoffs?
Because fans like those games and spend money on them.
Crime Dog
You don’t need to poll anyone
Just look at the data
Do players hit substantively worse in their, what, first plate appearance of the series? First game of the series? First 2 games of the series?
You made the claim, support it
Filihok
I am not referring to the 1st game of a series. The first game of a series in regular season is played after one series has finished with another team, or at worst with 1 rest day in between. I can understand maybe a 2 day gap, or at worst a 3 day gap in a playoff scenario, which still isn’t ideal, but not 4. days.
Don’t talk about data, you use your eyes and hand eye co-ordination to hit. Why do you think golf opens are played on consecutive days, most tennis tournaments apart from slams and masters played on consecutive days, and world series played on consecutive days. You go from NLDS to World Series with what, a 1 or 2 day gap, not 4. That’s all you need to know. You can talk about ‘data’ all you like, if a hitter just went 7/8-10 to finish the season, the worst thing that can happens is for him to sit around. Like I said, the 4 day sit down advantages the sides playing as they can gain momentum from playing and winning, and in sport momentum is a big factor. Good day.
Crime Dog:
“You can talk about ‘data’ all you like”
Yes. Because otherwise you are just making stuff up
YOU have NO IDEA if batters hit worse after a 4 day lay off between series. YOU have NO IDEA how much worse hitters hit after a 4 day lay off between series. YOU have NO IDEA how much worse (or better) pitchers are after a 4 day lay off between series.
YOU are just MAKING STUFF UP.
There’s no reason any reasonable person should believe you
Present your data and you will have some backing to your claim. Otherwise it’s just useless noise.
Filihok
You are clueless and I wasn’t going to waste my time with you because you’ve obviously never played any hand eye co-ordination sports, especially not baseball.
We found 88 instances overall, but many of them involved two rested teams playing each other. For example, both League Championship Series in 2018 involved teams with four or more days’ rest: The Dodgers and Brewers had four days between series, and the Red Sox and Astros had five days each.
So we pared it down to the 40 series where only one team had four or more days of rest, which is the same circumstance the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, and Yankees find themselves in this week.
We might expect any such rest – or rust – issues to be most apparent in the first game back after a layoff (although rested teams generally ought to be able to use their best starting pitching option in Game 1).
In the 40 series, the teams with at least four days of rest went 19-21 in Game 1s, and they only won 17 of the 40 series. Of the 23 series where the more rested team lost, 13 of those teams lost to an opponent with a worse regular-season record.
Extra rest was less likely to hinder teams that had a significant regular-season advantage in the matchup, however. Teams that had won at least 10 games more than their opponent were 10-1 in Game 1s and 8-3 in the series overall.
The interesting results come from teams that were within nine games of each other in the regular season. The better-rested teams were 8-19 in Game 1s and 7-20 in the overall series results. The teams from that group that played Game 1 at home went 4-11 and won just five of the 15 series.
Furthermore, Adam Wainwright was asked whether too much rest can negatively affect performance.
“It can matter, that’s for sure,” Wainwright said. “We’ve seen teams that play to the last day trying not to die, fighting for that wild-card spot. We’ve seen those teams win in the postseason because they have that urgency going into it. We’ve seen teams that have No. 1 seeds sit out for a few games, or where a team has swept and the other side goes seven, and they kind of lose the momentum they had.”
The 2007 Colorado Rockies had a nine-game break between the NLCS and World Series, the longest layoff in this dataset. They were swept by the Boston Red Sox.
“But I also think that baseball is a funny, weird game,” Wainwright said. “Everything has to go right. Timing has to be perfect for whoever is playing well; they have to be pitching well, getting timely hits. And those things come in ebbs and flows in baseball.”
Imagine that, “timing”.
Again, jog along, you have zero clues about this game.
Crime Dog:
First, I’m muting you after responding. You’ve very much proven yourself to be a kind of person I have zero interest in interacting with.
Asking someone to support their claim with data isn’t an insult,it’s how reasoned discussion works. There’s a reason that high children learn to write papers where they support their arguments with facts – so they can function as productive adults. Not dolts who get up in arms because so someone doesn’t just believe what they say because they said it.
Further, your comment about my never having played sports that require hand-eye coordination is based 100% on ignorance. Which is an example of why I asked you to support your claim about long layoffs. Just because YOU think something is true, doesn’t mean that it is true. Further, I’m pretty confident that I have as much experience playing baseball at the Major League level as you do. I’m just not arrogant enough to think that my experience is similar to the best baseball players in the world.
Further, you appear to be insinuating that I was wrong, and that you were right. You, predictably, have it entirely backwards. Nowhere did I say anything about you being wrong. Nowhere did I say anything about players or teams not being impacted by a layoff. What I said was that your argument was useless drivel. And, it was.
So, jog along into oblivion.
Filihok
I backed my claims by supporting it with statistics, it isn’t “insinuation”, it’s factual, then you assert “it’s useless drivel” when it’s Adam Wainwright speaking about the matter, and the other stats that are quoted are where sides have rested and it has proven that it’s no good, yet here you are talking about ‘ignorance’. What a cry baby you are, ‘fili’ by name, fili by nature. You are wrong, and your response is “useless vacuous drivel”.
It’d be cool to see the Reds make it, but I think they’re a year early. It was smart of them to not go all-in during the deadline. They can use trades to shore up their rotation this offseason if they want or wait until next year’s deadline to make sure this year’s rookies have continued to develop.
Of the four, I think the Giants make it, but wouldn’t really be surprised with any of them. Baseball is a funny game that defies oddsmakers at almost every turn.
Sucks to see the cubs back on top so soon ! If they keep bellinger and stroman then go get hader and Urias – they’ll be all the way back as their farm has some players to produce over next couple seasons too. As a reds fan – I was hoping they’d be a couple more years behind.
And u know cardinal fans a cringing lol. They are on the verge a looong rebuild w that roster and farm !
Even if you’re a Red’s fan, it really doesn’t suck that the Cubs are exceeding everyone’s expectations. So are the Reds-and it’s good for baseball and the NL Central in particular.
Definitely sucks to see the cubs currently in a WC spot. But it won’t last. My three WC are the Reds, Giants and Phillies. In the “AL”, Tampa Bay, Texas and Houston.
Giants are trash. They were a bad team playing way above their talent level for the first half of the year. Ever since the all star break they have been playing to their actual talent level. Farhan built an awful roster. Any realistic Giants fan knew this before the season started.
They have good pitching, though.
As a Marlins fan, I’m enjoying this battle for the playoffs. And I’m optimistic because, one can say that the WC contenders (other than the Phillies and Cubs), missed their chance to knock the Marlins out of it. The Marlins have played awful in the second half, but are still right there. And it feels like they’re due for a good run…not necessarily because they are specifically good, but just the whole rollercoasyer marathon that a baseball season is for every team, with the peaks and valleys.
Go Marlins!
So, it seems like the Giants, Reds, D-Backs and Marlins have had moments like they are zombie teams. Each have seemed dead, but were not properly buried by each other, so they have come back like zombies.
Which Zombie team will make the playoffs?