MLBTR Poll: Michael Wacha’s Option

Among last winter’s notable free agents, few remained unsigned as long as Michael Wacha. The veteran right-hander was on the market until mid-February. He eventually inked a four-year, $26MM guarantee to join the Padres, although the contract structure was rather complex.

Wacha was guaranteed $7.5MM for this season between his salary and a signing bonus. (He subsequently earned an additional $500K for starting 20 games.) This winter, the Padres will have to decide whether to trigger successive $16MM options — essentially a two-year, $32MM pact. If the Friars decline, Wacha would have a $6.5MM player option for next season (with two additional $6MM player options thereafter). If neither side exercises its end of the option, he’d return to free agency.

The 32-year-old’s production is quite similar to last year’s work. After posting a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts for the Red Sox a year ago, he’s allowed 3.44 earned runs per nine over 22 appearances this season. As was the case last season, estimators like FIP (4.02) and SIERA (4.49) are less enthused than his ERA would suggest. That reflects fine but unexceptional strikeout and walk marks. Wacha’s 22.2% strikeout percentage and 8.2% walk rate are right in line with the respective 22.1% and 7.9% league averages for starting pitchers.

Last season, Wacha had slightly lower than average strikeout and walk figures. His fastball speed has dipped from 93 MPH to 91.8 MPH, though he’s compensated by leaning a little more on his cutter and changeup. His overall swinging-strike rate is up one percentage point.

Those are minor changes. In aggregate, Wacha looks largely the same as he did a season ago. The market didn’t seem to materialize the way he’d anticipated last winter, leading to his extended free agent stay. It’s possible teams are more inclined to buy into Wacha’s stronger bottom line results after a second sub-3.50 ERA showing, though his production has tailed off down the stretch.

He carried a 2.84 ERA over 85 2/3 innings into the All-Star Break. He’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine in 34 2/3 frames in the second half. Wacha’s strikeout and ground-ball rates have improved as the season has gone on, but he has paired that with a few more walks of late. His production also tailed off in the second half of the 2022 campaign, when he posted a 4.11 ERA after running a 2.69 mark through the break.

The Padres’ call on a two-year, $32MM option looks as if it could go either way. There were a handful of veteran pitchers who signed in that range last winter. Nathan Eovaldi got $34MM over two seasons from the Rangers, who also surrendered a draft choice after he declined a qualifying offer. Eovaldi had pitched to a 3.80 ERA over 291 2/3 innings in the preceding two seasons but had superior strikeout and walk marks to Wacha.

The Giants inked Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to matching two-year, $25MM guarantees with an opt-out after the first season. Stripling is perhaps the closest comparison point to Wacha, as he was coming off a 3.01 ERA in his platform season despite a modest 20.7% strikeout rate. As with Wacha, Stripling’s career track record has been inconsistent. Manaea was more of a rebound flier, as he’d had a dismal second half preceding his free agent trip.

José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and Tyler Anderson (three years, $39MM after rejecting a qualifying offer) each had a sub-3.00 ERA in their platform seasons. Both had mixed results in the few years leading up to 2022 and were older than Wacha is now. They each showed strong command last season with roughly average swing-and-miss rates and low-90s velocity.

Wacha fits in that category of back-end starter, which generally received around $12-13MM annually over two or three years last winter. Wacha’s $16MM club options are a bit above that, but the player option values are well below it. If the Padres decline their end, Wacha is very likely to opt out and test free agency. He at least shouldn’t have any issue topping the respective $17MM and $19MM two-year guarantees secured by Jordan Lyles and Drew Smyly last offseason.

The Padres are one of the league’s higher-spending franchises and already facing ample uncertainty in their rotation. Blake Snell is going to be a free agent. Seth Lugo is almost certainly going to decline a player option and test the market. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are the only veteran starters guaranteed to be in next year’s rotation; both ended this season on the injured list. Nick Martinez could opt out of his own deal if the Friars decline a two-year, $32MM extension.

None of the other pitchers to log any kind of rotation time for San Diego are clear answers. Ryan Weathers was traded away at the deadline. Rich Hill has been knocked around and seems likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. Pedro Avila and Matt Waldron have ERA’s around 6.00 when working as starters. If the Padres don’t retain Wacha, they’ll likely need to add one or two similar pitchers in free agency or trade.

Is it worthwhile for the Padres to preserve some stability by locking Wacha back in at the start of the offseason, even if the annual salary is a bit beyond what he’d likely receive on the open market? Would they be better served preserving that flexibility going into the winter as they sort through other rotation possibilities?

(poll link for app users)

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.