Big Jackson Prospects is back with another edition starring members of the new Jackson Four.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 490 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .333/.451/.517
Holliday is the top-performing minor leaguer among players with more than 400 plate appearances. His 168 wRC+ is all the more impressive when considering his age relative to his competition. The question now on everyone’s lips – will he make his Major League debut this year? To me, that will depend on how he does in the next few weeks. One factor is outside of his control: will the Orioles have an injury to open a playoff roster spot for him? He’s likelier to get a taste of the Majors if he’s expected to contribute to the playoff push.
To date, Holliday has relied on hard, low-angle contact and high BABIPs to fuel his offensive success. Such an approach tends to be less effective in the Majors. At Triple-A, we’ll get our first public look at his exit velocities. I’ve heard some rumors but haven’t gotten my hands on the actual data yet.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (AA)
(A+/AA) 488 PA, 15 HR, 15 SB, .283/.331/.454
Merrill is having a nice time of it in Double-A. He was reportedly considered for a promotion to the Majors about 10 days back. The Padres seemingly decided against the aggressive move. As it stands, he’s positioned himself to skip a return engagement in Double-A next season. As to where he fits in the Padres long-term plans, he might need to wait for Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth to open the door at second base. The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.
Jackson Jobe, 20, SP, DET (A+)
(A+) 30 IP, 12.30 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, 3.90 ERA
Jobe is a spin-rate boss with four average or better offerings. His weapons have allowed him to live in the strike zone in the low minors. A test in Double-A to open 2024 should help with the development of his command. Encouragingly, the Tigers are using Jobe like a traditional starter down the stretch. Since reaching High-A, he’s faced 20 or more batters in four of six outings. Compare that to other top pitching prospects around the league. Jobe hasn’t pitched much since he was drafted in 2021. It’s possible we see him finish out his season in the Arizona Fall League.
Jackson Chourio, 19, OF, MIL (AA)
(AA) 509 PA, 21 HR, 37 SB, .282/.336/.471
One of the few upper-echelon prospects younger than Holliday, Chourio has spent the entire season in Double-A where he’s held his own against much older competition. He’s been particularly effective of late, delivering four home runs and a .998 OPS in his last 45 plate appearances. Anyone hoping to see him promoted into the NL Central playoff race shouldn’t hold their breath. His defensive skills remain a work in progress. While he has the raw tools to stick in center field, his reads are still inconsistent. Were his glove ahead of his bat, he’d have a better case for a cheeky late-season promotion.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, OF, CHC (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 474 PA, 18 HR, 35 SB, .278/.364/.499
Unlike Chourio, Crow-Armstrong’s impressive defensive ability must be weighing heavy on the playoff-aspiring Cubs. Though they’ve gotten good results from Mike Tauchman, that feels more like found money than a sustainable source of production. A promotion for Crow-Armstrong would be a lock if not for one bugaboo – a 30.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A. There’s considerable swing-and-miss to PCA’s game. He has pop, emerging discipline, and plenty of speed to make up for his lack of contact. There are some roster considerations working against Crow-Armstrong since he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2024. If the Central battle remains close come mid-month, I expect to see him.
Three More
Ronny Mauricio, NYM (22): In just 11 plate appearances, Mauricio has already delivered the Mets hardest-hit ball of 2023. There’s no question the switch-hitter shoots lasers. The issue is whether or not he makes enough contact to sustain a regular role. Though athletic, he’s not known for his defensive ability.
Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): In the wake of today’s news, Sheehan has elevated importance for a Dodgers club with only two veteran starters. In limited action, he hasn’t had confidence in his changeup. He needs that to be his moneymaker. Below-average command hints at a relief future.
Masyn Winn, STL (21): When we covered Winn at the time of his promotion, we noted the bat didn’t seem ready despite a broad base of skills. He’s struggled to a 6 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. Winn appears to be making a classic first-timer mistake – selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact. He still has a dozen ways to grow into an average or better player.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Big Hype Prospects: Jackson Edition
“The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.”
that sounds good.
Except you’re stuck with XB at SS for the foreseeable future. His ego won’t allow a better fielding player to move him over. And they are almost all better fielding.
They only promised him the SS job for this season if memory serves. Also, gotta wonder where he’d play with Kim now entrenched at 2nd, Xander at short, and Manny at 3rd (not to mention Cronenworth, who can play all 3 positions, and was extended before the season).
Seems like a trade or two may be a brewin..
Four Jacksons and a Pete!
I highly doubt Holliday debuts this year but I definitely wouldn’t say no (unless he struggles badly at Norfolk over the next few weeks).
are you clowns really trying to downplay Holliday? Kid’s a star, get used to it
“tends to be”
That’s looking at the collective – MANY individual players have excelled to the point of HOF with that approach.
no, I DON’T mean in a time before analytics was a thing – first off, Analytics has ALWAYS been a thing in baseball – Mack & McGraw were thouroughly familiar with all the available data – which included OBP
Here’s a blurb from a SABR article
“There was a new idea here: that working the count for a walk merited reward. The idea of working the count was not new, but earlier it had not met with approval, as seen in this report from 1870:
When [Forest City] had bravely crept ahead of the Brooklynites [i.e. the Atlantics], the latter resorted to the mean, barefaced dodge of waiting—taking advantage of the reprehensible leniency of the umpire—to worry the pitcher or get a base on . . . balls.]“The National Game. Forest City, of Rockford, Ill., vs. Atlantic, of Brooklyn—The Atlantics Whipped,” New York Herald, June 1, 1870.[/fn]
The strategy was gradually accepted over the following years. When, in the Spring of 1886, Harry Wright coached his players to “take every chance at the bat by waiting for a good ball or secure the base on balls,” it was reported with no hint of disapproval, as it clearly was smart baseball.”
Branch Rickey and, especially, Paul Richards, were HUGE proponents of a good eye, teaching it throughout their minor league systems – that is why in 1963 the Astros debuted three of the greatest walkers the game has known : Joe Morgan, Jimmy Wynn, and Rusty Staub – John Mayberry, 6 years later, was no OBP slouch himself. I could go on and on here, but you need to take Bill James with a few grains of salt, and not be a Modern Analytics Absolutist, cuz that’s a real quick way to be very wrong about some things, and also not win pennants. There’s more to baseball than JUST the numbers.
From the concluding paragraph of the SABR article : “There is a temptation to regard the “traditional stats” as obvious, in contrast to modern “advanced stats.” Both sides in the advanced stats discussion tend to fall into this trap, treating “obvious” either as virtuous or as naive.”
sabr.org/journal/article/how-bases-on-balls-were-s…
Foxtrot Unicorn Charlie Kilo;
What analytics? There’s just one way to use them?
Analytics have the Yankees screwed up. Read the outrage in the NYC papers.
What’s wrong with looking at pitchers wins and BA? I’m tired of reading about the terrible Orioles starting pitching and that they need to do something about it. They sit with the best record in the AL which confuses the analytic community. So they start another line of BS as they search for a simple solution to their always being wrong – in this case it’s the Orioles bullpen that’s so good. Which Orioles fans that watch the games will tell you is not true at all except for 3 guys (see multiple responses to the Orioles article of the other day, including mine) – the rest have been blowing leads all season (as I’ve written all season).
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Winn was a solid prospect a few weeks ago here. He got called up and is struggling. It happens. But the excuse from the analytic community is that he’s “selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact”. Hummm. Maybe the problem is trying to read too much into 49 PA’s, no?
And now we get we need more data about Jackson Holiday – specifically ‘exit velocities” – which we can get at AAA but not lower. Interesting. Here we’ve been reading critiques about hitters below AAA not knowing their exit velocities.
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Every single scout I’ve read about that actually watches players play as opposed to solely looking at data, is stunned at what Holiday is doing. And that’s not just offensively – it has to do with his defense, baserunning, and exceptional Baseball IQ giving him the ability to make instantaneous decisions on what to do in game situations, and doing it.
Young Mr. Holiday will be up either later this year or early in 2024 with the Orioles. Their Ass’t GM / Director of Analytics is Sig Mejdal (was influential in the drafting of Holiday). His work helped make the Cardinals of the early 20oo=2010’s competitive (won a WS in 2011); went to the Astros, did the same there with the same results and they’re still contending; and has been a big part of building the Orioles up from nothing.
I spent my life working with computers and numbers. Anyone that tells you that there is one way of looking at numbers needs to be avoided. If someone is going to comment on young players, they NEED TO WATCH THEM PLAY….and not for a game here and there.
Read up on Willie Mays – some old guy that doesn’t matter anymore.
He came up to the Giants from the minors where he excelled at both AA and AAA. When called up he had one hit his first 24 PA’s. Critics piled on. Mays was dejected.
His manager – Leo Durocher – famously waived the critics off (they had all sorts of reasons why the guy wasn’t going to amount to much) – and told both the media and Willie that he was going to be an exceptional ballplayer. Durocher made a temporary adjustment to Willie’s plate approach. Willie started hitting. Never stopped for long. He may have been the greatest all-around CF in MLB history.
Start your own blog, Samuel. No one wants to read your autistic ramblings
Yeah keep scrolling at any samuel post like most people.
every one of the top 300 starting pitchers in Major League history – including NOW – have wracked up tons of pitcher wins – because they are REALLY good pitchers. A pitcher consistently on the DL/IL is NOT a really good pitched, cuz he’s not helping you win. SO FAR, DeGrom is about the equivalent of Herb Score and Mark Fidrych and Karl Spooner, combined. STARTING Pitcher wins matter VASTLY, always have, always will.
You know what else the paleolithic baseball men could do? They could look at a starter’s winning %, and compare it to the team’s winning %, including dude & excluding dude.
Also, a 21-5 with a 4.50 ERA (regardless of era played) is doing something right, guaranteed, cuz his team ain’t playing .800 ball in the rest of the games.
Otherwise, I’m familiar with everything you’re saying, and agree with a huge amount of “analytic” wisdom – when it provably conduces to ACTUAL team wins, rather than paper wins, I’m all over it.
btw, speaking of launch angle, I believe all those great current pitchers (Verlander, Cole, etc) who are wracking up pitcher wins discovered a few years ago that the way to combat THAT was the 4-seamer way up in the zone or above it. Hence the Yankees struggles last couple of years.
actually, Samuel has more wisdom regarding how winning teams actually win actual games and pennants than just about anybody else posting here
I ain’t reading all that. I’m happy for you though, or sorry that happened.
nobody says you have to – I guess, by “No one”, you meant, you.
I meant people that aren’t turd goblins. You have the same problem as Samuel. Too much to say but nobody cares what you’re saying.
I take it you’ve
1) never read Christy Mathewson’s “Pitching in a Pinch”, and
2) You aren’t real big on nuance, rather than absolutism?
Oh, I see by your handle that you’re a lib – that explains a lot. But remember from Sesame Street or wherever that “Reading is FUNdamental!”
The only thing A player with a 21-5 record with a 4.50 ERA is doing right is staying in the game long enough for his offense to catch up and bail him out. You won’t find a guy with that ERA and record on the modern day Oakland A’s. Put the same pitcher on the Braves, Orioles, or Dodgers, and they might win 15 games based on that transition alone.
In the end, I’d rather have the pitcher who is 5-15 with a 3.00 ERA than a pitcher who is 15-5 with a 5.00 ERA.
Samuel, correct on all except “may have been”.
Also consider the amount of those players who were at the top of the wins leaderboards were on teams who had great offenses. You can’t win if you can’t score. Nolan Ryan led the league in losses once and had a 324-292 record because he played on a lot of mediocre teams. In 1987 when he led the league in ERA, he was 8-16. If he was playing with the Yankees of that era for a good portion of his career, I bet he’s a 500 game winner.
Lib my nuts. Pretty pathetic to just use assumed politics to discount people.
You are just another loser like Samuel that thinks people care what you think because you perceive yourself as more intelligent.
Unfortunately, you’re wrong. You are just another fat loser with an inferiority complex that thinks baseball is your “thing” and you are smarter than the rest of us. Nobody cares about your terrible opinion on sports, regardless of the political spectrum.
deGrom was on some teams with some very good offenses… yet he was just a little over a .500 pitcher for them. While stat guys would want deGrom on the mound… give me Bartolo or Zack Wheeler. They will give you 200 innings and get the wins.
Jack Morris is the poster child for this discussion, and, to a lesser extent, Fergie Jenkins and Phil Niekro, and Gaylord Perry – the latter 3 won an awful lot of games for some really bad teams.
There is, most definitely, such a thing as pitching well enough to win – it is part of every career-great pitcher’s make-up.
Jack Morris had it; I’m not sure DeGrom does. We shall see, He *might* come back and propel himself into the discussion of career-great pitchers. Garrett Cole is FAR better than DeGrom, mainly because he’s out there every start, but also because he’s a smarter pitcher than DeGrom is.
DeGrom, so far, is Sid Fernandez re-visited.
Amen Melchez, amen.
AbortTexasCarpetbombFlorida
*hand wave emoji*
If you’d take Colon or Wheeler in their prime over deGrom, you’re going to lose more games. deGrom also had the worst run support in the league in 2018 and 2019 at 3.81 runs per game. His average ERA in losses in 2018 was 2.71.
Jack morris is the poster child for this discussion just like you are the poster child for pro-choice.
Pitchers don’t win games. Teams do. Far too many pitchers with large numbers of wins and ERAs no where close to the best in the league that were backed by massive run support that show clearly that wins don’t = great pitchers.
Rick Porcello is a perfect example. Sabathia, Colon, Clemens in 2001.
As soon as you bring politics into your comments and try to use it as an insult means everything you say is questionable. Say hello to my little friend mute button.
Idk why these people are trying to argue with you like you said Holliday was bad or something..lol
The Astros Hot Takes guy is arguing horribly at that…
Saying analytics have been around forever, then pointing out taking a walk and OBP?? Those aren’t the analytics anyone is talking about here, and Im pretty sure NOBODY even counts baseball card statistics as advanced analytics…
What was brought up was BABIP, again which has NOTHING to do with walks, and hard low angle contact…Which, PLEASE copy and paste some other random story that says they could consistently measure that accurately to the degree way back when…(I won’t wait, because it ain’t happening no matter how many times you try and Google it)
All that was said, was that most major league hitters don’t do well with that approach…Well, guess what, you do realize Holliday also isn’t most hitters right? So, he could succeed with his same approach still…BUT FACTS SAY THAT MOST PLAYERS DON’T…
All that is being said, is that he may have to alter his approach when he reaches the big league levels…Which, again, is something EVERY PLAYER has to do at some point when scouting reports come out on them, and pitchers start keying in on their current weaknesses.
BREAKING NEWS: There is NOT a single player in MLB that hasn’t had to make some kind of adjustments throughout their career..
Good lord some people are so sensitive. How dare you even question the next great one Fox Trot!?!
WTF lol, I know this comment section can get ridiculous and dumb sometimes but good lord…
Not true, many of us are fans of Samuel’s artistic rumblings!
If deGrom had worse support from his offense than his other pitching teammates, then maybe his offense didn’t like him? Someone elses pitcher was pitching better every day deGrom goes out to the mound. 2018 and 2019 deGrom’s 2 Cy Young years, he was just 3 games over .500. He had a decent offense those years.
In 2018, the Mts were 14 and 18 in games deGrom pitched. He was 10 and 9.
Who beat him?
Masahiro Tanaka 12 – 6
Mike Soroka 13 – 4
Clayton Kershaw 16 – 5
Pablo Lopez 5 – 8
Joey Lucchesi 10 – 10
Trevor Williams 7 – 9
Anibal Sanchez 11 – 8
Madison Bumgarner 9 – 9
None of them got a Cy Young vote that year.
2019 he was 11 and 8
Kyle Gibson 13 – 7
Julio Tehran 10 -11
Chase Anderson 8 – 4
Chris Paddack 9 – 7
Trevor Richards 3-12
Antonio Senzatela 11 – 11
Mike Soroka 13 – 4
On any given night, these guys pitched better than deGrom during his “Cy Young” years. These guys found ways to beat deGrom.
I love you Melchez, like Altuve loves Justin Verlander. Nice post.
hate to break it to you Richard, but they could consistently measure BABIP accurately to the degree way back when. It’s not at all a difficult equation, and they had the necessary data sitting there right in front of them. Wee Willie Keeler had a .344 BABIP, 60 points above league average. And his launch angle was nothing to write home about.
Foxtrot, what pitcher has ever been 21-5 with a 4.5 era?
Also you aware that Holliday has a .451 OBP to go along with his .333 BA?? The kid is a machine in regards to getting on base. But apparently your analytical research overlooked his OBP….
“To put it simply. Holliday having a .400+ babip tells us he’s been more lucky than an actual good hitter. Just like a babip in the .200 would tell us a hitter has been unlucky to some degree.”
So analytics is about “being lucky”?
Rick Helling was 20 and 7 with an era of 4.41.
So maybe analytic stats mean nothing and we should just go with lucky players? Vogelbach has been a top exit velo guy/ hard hit guy his whole career, yet after 1,800 plate appearances he’s got a .220 batting average. A .341 OBP and OPS+ of 107…Is he a good player?
Luis Arraez is a below average exit velo and hard hit rate… Who would you rather have?
To be honest, I wouldn’t mind both, but Arraez is by far the better average. Two time batting champ (soon to be)… OBP of .380… unreal. Over 2,000 plate appearances… it’s no fluke.
I don’t have the magic stat to determine who is good or who is bad… but give me a guy with a great batting average any day of the week
Jim Merritt was 20-12 for the 1970 Cincinnati Reds, 4.08 ERA, All Star, 4th in Cy Young and 21st in MVP voting, winning % .625, team winning % was .630
For the 1969 Reds, he was 17-9, with a 4.37 ERA, winning % .654, team winning % was .549
First, he said he doesn’t actually have his hands on the data….
Second at 19 he has 10 homers, 26 doubles and 9 triples, so he’s obviously hitting some balls hard.
Third no one is better equipped to evaluate data than Elias and he believes Holliday has far exceeded any reasonable expectation and he’s added nearly 20 pounds of muscle since being drafted.
I’ll take the bet on his success in the majors.
@tuck 2 I agree, though I think it’s a legitimate criticism as of right now. Again, I think the Os and Holliday will figure it out. They seem to be pretty good at that.
@Foxtrot, “Low contact angle” or in other words “line drive approach” Thinking that line drive hitters rely on BABIP? Really? How about line drives result in hits at a greater percentage than grounders or fly balls. BABIP ignores swing and miss, it’s a poor indicator of batting skill.
Okay, but .425 is really, really, insanely high. Since 2000, no batter has had 300+ PAs and a BABIP of .415. Even Tony Gwynn, nor Rod Carew even were able to reach that mark. The last player to even reach that mark in the majors was when Calvin Coolidge was still president and baseball gloves looked more like work gloves with some strings between the thumb and forefinger. I think Jackson Holliday will become a great hitter, but in no way will it be with a .420+ BABIP.
So you would be downright to think he won’t adjust. The Orioles have one of the best player development teams in baseball, not to mention this kid’s family members who have been a big influence on his development to this point. Entering his senior year in high school he was considered a late 1st round pick, if that. What happened? he adjusted and became the Top Pick in the draft and now the best player in the minors.
Nobody ever said he won’t/can’t adjust and improve his game. He was a former first overall pick for a reason. But there’s also a reason for evaluators to have some concern about how he’s played so far. Two things can be true at the same time. Holliday is extremely athletic with a lot of make-up, and with his baseball background, I’m sure he knows better than anyone that sometimes you have to adjust and make changes. But evaluators also know that ground ball hitters are typically not good hitters either.
I predict there’s no way PCA sees the majors til mid 2024 at the earliest. Hoyer won’t start his clock before whatever date that is next year. The Cubs will resign Tauchman after Belli leaves and go with a platoon of Canario and Tauchman until then I would expect.
I really love baseball.
should have covered Jaxkson Ferris to get 5.
You mean the Jackson 5?
not sure how I screwed up that spelling smh
Al Avila’s prospects are blossoming a year too late to save his job.
Nothing was saving Al’s job. He just had too many big misses over a lengthy period. He’s drafted some good players though.
Preller and crew purposely draft athletic SS’s and CFers so if they need to move (ala Robin Yount style) that player can later interchange positions…and their athleticism gives them a good chance at being decent at it. Tatis Jr moving to the OF was supposedly going to be a waste of his skills…but the dude flat out balls out at his new position and is now one of the games top Ofers.
Yeah, we won’t see Jackson Chourio in the bigs this season and if there’s any type of call up in 2024, I’d expect it as a cup of coffee at best, but 2025? I think that’ll be his year.
Other Active Jackson’s in the minor leagues…
Castillo NYY
Cluff Wash
Coutts Wash
Cox Col
Feltner Ariz
Ferris CHC
Fristoe NYY
Glenn Pitt
Goddard Ariz
Grounds Pitt
Hickert ?
Hicks Min
Hornung Tor
Humphries Cle
Kelley Tex
Lancaster TBR
Leath Tex
Loftin Hou
McClelland CHC
Miller Cin
Prichard ?
Raper ?
Rees Tor
Rose Fla
Rutledge Wash
Smith ?
Valera NYY
I’m guessing the ? means they are in the independent league. A few I checked were. Didn’t feel like checking them all.
Jackson Jobe looks like he’s ready for AA. He’s not really being challenged any more in A ball.
He’ll be leading the next wave of Tigers pitching.
Ty Madden looks like he’s ready for AAA. He’s another.
Evidently need more parents to name their sons Jackson lol.
Kim should be at SS Bogaerts can move to 2B/DH . X is the least clutch player on the team he is .185 with RISP he needs to go to different spot in the order . He is at the top of NL in hitting into DP . Move x down in the order he is killing rallies
4 out of 8 are named Jackson. Now that’s odd