A hearty welcome to Pete Crow-Armstrong. We discussed his case for promotion last week. Though he had seven hits in 10 plate appearances over the weekend, this promotion is all about his glove. Anything he adds with his bat is gravy.
We’ll cover more recent and potential call-ups in today’s edition of Big Hype Prospects.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 520 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .326/.444/.504
As I noted last week, Holliday’s promotion to Triple-A means we finally get access to public exit velocities. Those go a long way to influencing when a prospect earns his first promotion to the Majors. His 89.6 mph average and 103.7 mph max EVs in 30 plate appearances aren’t particularly impressive. They suggest the Orioles are better off with their existing middle infielders. Overall, he’s hitting just .200/.333/.280 in Triple-A. One silver lining, he’s posted more walks than strikeouts. Of course, we’re also talking about a tiny sample. That should go without saying.
Before anyone frets about his lack of pop in 30 plate appearances, an acquaintance was nice enough to pass along his Double-A data. His 109.7 mph max EV is excellent for a 19-year-old at any level. The chart I received doesn’t list an average, but it’s visually somewhere between 90 and 93 mph – also excellent.
Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 486 PA, 30 HR, 5 SB, .330/.391/.604
Wander Franco left the Rays in a tough spot, relying on the soft-hitting Taylor Walls and Osleivis Basabe to handle shortstop. Caminero represents a “go-for-power” alternative. Though he mostly plays third base these days, that decision was at least partly in deference to his expected future role. Caminero might not be much of a downgrade defensively – Walls isn’t exactly a superstar defender. Caminero is still athletic enough to cover shortstop at present. Since August 25, he batted .354/.436/.917 with eight home runs in 55 plate appearances.
Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450
An injury to Adolis Garcia opened the door for Carter to join the Rangers roster. He was reportedly already under consideration, the injury merely turned “when” to “now.” Oft-compared to Brandon Nimmo (they’re eerily similar), Carter plays within himself. Not all scouts appreciate this – the current meta is all about chasing extreme outcomes. In particular, he looks like he should be able to hit for power, but he maximizes for on base percentage rather than slugging. That’s just the first of many commonalities with Nimmo. The Rangers have a reputation for forcing their prospects to produce pulled, fly ball contact. That Carter reached the Majors despite eschewing organizational preferences suggests there’s an interesting behind-the-scenes tale to tell.
Jordan Lawlar, 21, SS, ARI (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 490 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .278/.378/.496
Questions about Lawlar’s hit tool mostly fly under the radar thanks to heady results and plus shortstop defense. He’s considered one of the best athletes in the sport. The most optimistic scouts consider him a 70 overall on the 20-80 scale. Aside from consistency of contact, Lawlar offers the total package. He’s an above-average runner, fields and throws well, and already flashes 30 homer upside as part of a discipline-forward approach. Though he’s not as extreme as Anthony Volpe, there’s a chance Lawlar’s early outcomes follow a similar track.
Mason Miller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
23.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.09 ERA
Miller returned from injury on September 6. He’s scheduled to make his first start since April on Monday. A hard-thrower with a limited repertoire and a long injury history, Miller has rare potential to overpower Major League hitters. Developed as a starter, evaluators remain split on his ultimate role. A proactive conversion to relief could help to lengthen his career – or at least improve his effectiveness. As a starter, the range of outcomes looks something like Tyler Glasnow to Michael Kopech with a real chance that he’s usually too hurt to contribute.
Three More
Jackson Ferris, CHC (19): I knew there was a fifth Jackson I forgot last week. Ferris is the also-ran among the prominent Jacksons in baseball, but he still tracks as a potential Top 100 prospect within the coming years. The southpaw has a repertoire of four average or better offerings backed by presently poor command. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA with 12.38 K/9, 5.30 BB/9, and a 53.4 percent ground ball rate in Low-A.
Brooks Lee (22): The Twins are relatively deep in the middle infield or else Lee would be on the shortlist for a promotion. He’s a well-rounded player who lacks standout tools or notable shortcomings. He’s posted above-MLB-average EVs in Triple-A.
Luisangel Acuna, NYM (21): Since joining the Mets organization, Acuna has cut his swinging strike rate nearly in half. He also cut his power in half. The net result is a sharp decline in offensive value. For now, this has the look of a step back for (hopefully) two steps forward.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
I imagine that the author and others have heard talk of the difference between data being “descriptive” versus “predictive”, the former being interesting but not necessarily telling while the latter is understood to point to something of significance. In this case, I think the Holliday data is descriptive. He hasn’t hit particularly well in a very small sample in a situation in which that isn’t surprising (could be adjustment to a new level, a typical small-window slump, the result of adjusting as a person to a new location/team, etc), and it stands to reason that a player experiencing below-baseline output over a small period would also see a drop in underlying data. This, as opposed to this data being indicative of his baseline, and thus the slump being a result of that (surprising) baseline.
1. It’s September. The good pitchers in AAA have been promoted to the majors.
2. We’re talking 30 plate appearances?
3. The young man is 19 years-old. It’s his first year in pro ball. He’s excelled at 3 levels this year. He may well be tired.
4. Other than this column I’ve read or heard no one from the Orioles discussing bringing him up in 2023. They are filled up with 2B’s, 3B’s and SS’s that have helped them to the best record in the AL, and 2nd best in MLB.
Lawler ROY 2024!
Both predictive and descriptive!
Holliday isn’t even old enough to get a Holiday Inn room in certain states apparently.
Too aggressive with Holliday imo
He should have been covered earlier in the season.
He’s had one of the best years for a 19 year-old in quite some time.
He was previously featured on Sept. 4, May 22 and April 10.
OK fine, he should have been covered five times earlier in the season.
Wyatt Langford >> Evan Carter
Look at that BB/K ratio! He should be getting a spot in every list, though I love that Texas has 2 consensus top 15 prospects for their depleted outfield.
Langford is legit. Big league power & I enjoy watching him hustle around the diamond. Bright future.
So now exit velocities make the decision to get to the big leagues. The kid has been phenomenal every level he’s been at and I’m sure he’ll do just fine in the show regardless of how hard he hits a ball
Would it kill you to write about Waldrup or Hackenburg from the Braves?
He probably doesn’t want to find out.
Upon further investigation, Brad Johnson is cursed by the devil that he would die if he wrote the letters W a l d r u p together on an article.
Very nicely written. Easy to read and put into thought without unneeded effort. Probably easy for people to overlook and take for granted. Nice article, thank you.
“Walls isn’t exactly a superstar defender.”
Do you even watch the Rays? The only reason Walls is in the majors at all is because he IS a suoerstar defender. Pretty much ALL of his value is on defense. The idea that Caminero – who has played only 29 games at SS this season – wouldn’t be “much of a downgrade” defensively is ridiculous.
I agree that Walls can’t hit. And if you want to suggest Caminero as an alternative in that respect, fine.
But the Rays don’t rush guys. If Franco never comes back, they’ll live with Walls and Basabe until Carson Williams – an actual shortstop – is ready, and when Caminero comes up it will be because they traded Brandon Lowe and moved Paredes to 2B, or traded Paredes instead.
Walls has bad D metrics at SS. Which surprised
Me because that was his calling card to make it to the bigs. But they are consistently below average. I thought he was a competent SS but not anything special defensively via the eye test.
BrianStrowman9;
Defensive metrics don’t just lie. They’re a joke.
This right here is the problem with people that analyze by spreadsheets and don’t watch the games.
I’ve seen Taylor Walls make game-turning plays at SS and 2B since he came up to the majors. The man messes up some at times because he ranges so far for balls that no one can get near. Jorge Mateo of the O’s has the same issues at SS. You watch both of them and realize how important they are to their teams winning.
Which brings up…
I watched quite a few Rangers games recently. Corey Seager is a piece of work. Sure, a great hitter. But he costs that team so much playing SS (I’m sure his “defensive metrics” don’t show that). He belongs at 3B if he can handle a reaction position, else maybe 1B….although he’ll hurt the other infielders there when they make borderline throws. Then again the Rangers have a terrific 3B on the IL (Jung).
C and SS are the 2 most important positions on a professional baseball team – primarily because if played well they save the pitching staff….and the name of the game has always been pitching. Those that live by public “metrics” don’t understand that, and the public “metrics” don’t remotely reflect how those 2 positions affect games.
Yeah. I highly doubt TB is playing a SS who they grade out to be poor at the position. I personally never thought walls flashed as a plus plus guy there in the bigs but I don’t watch every TB baseball game:. He looked completely competent to me.
Holiday legitimately looks 13 yrs old. He looks like the team batboy
So with Ferris, when he says “poor command,” he must mean within the strike zone. I know there’s a difference between command and control, as his BB/9 is actually pretty solid.
5.3 BB/9 is not solid
What does he mean when he says “not as extreme as Volpe” when he talks about Lawler? Voloe’s offense is bad, but his defense is good, so Lawler has more of a hit tool?
Exit velo should never be the deciding factor in a promotion. Just look at what Bellinger is doing this year. His statcsst page has lots of poor marks for his exit velo but he’s easily the Cubs MVP.
Holiday wasn’t going to get a big league call this year. It’s amazing he’s in AAA. The O’s don’t need to break in another rookie in the middle infield at this point. There’s really no AB’s available.
Very cute … fifth Jackson lol
It would seem Brad Johnson intentionally avoids putting things into perspective when writing about Jackson Holliday. While he downplays Holliday’s 89.6 mph average exit velo as if it’s horribly below standard, Johnson doesn’t point out that the average exit velos for Trea Turner and Carlos Correa sit at 90.5 mph and Xander Bogaerts is below Holliday with an average of 88.1 in 2023. Surely Johnson isn’t suggesting that any of those three shortstops isn’t good enough to make it in the Majors because of their exit velos. It’s like he’s is trying to build a case so he can say “I told you so” when Holliday doesn’t burst onto the scene and immediately establish himself as a quality player in 2024.
misterb71;
MLBTR writers have always been subjective and not objective. That’s an easy thing to do when one utilizes numbers to pass judgement on something. In short – they play favorites depending on the player, manager, team, owner, whatever. Anyone would. The only way to change that would be to have a similar measuring stick in evaluating everyone and everything. Wouldn’t work.
Most things in life are subjective. Unfortunately, we have a few generations of kids that believe that if it’s on a spreadsheet or quoted by someone they approve of – it’s true. If it’s quoted by someone they don’t approve of – it’s false. Generations of zealots that are incapable of critical thinking abound around the world today….the way it’s always been….just easier to see thanks to computers and technology.