Twins right-hander Chris Paddack is making progress in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Hayes relays that, according to Twins training staff, Paddack is around ten days away from facing live hitters for the first time since he went under the knife last May.
Initially, Paddack was hoping to return to the big league mound this month, though given the time he’ll need to spend building up stamina after graduating to facing live hitters, it’s hardly a surprise that timeline was more recently pushed back to sometime in September, with the distinct possibility that return will have to come out of the bullpen rather than as a member of the rotation. While sixteen months away from the majors following Tommy John surgery is a certainly a longer rehab process than has become the norm in recent years, it’s worth remembering that this is Paddack’s second surgery, as he also went under the knife as a prospect back in 2016.
Regardless of if Paddack ultimately makes it back to pitch for the Twins this year, the 27-year-old hurler figures to be a key piece of Minnesota’s pitching staff in the long term. The Twins agreed to a three-year deal with Paddack this past offseason that guaranteed him $12.5MM while buying out what otherwise would have been the first year of his free agency. With Paddack locked up through the end of the 2025 season and current rotation pieces Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda both slated for free agency this coming offseason, Paddack figures to join Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Pablo Lopez as part of Minnesota’s rotation of the future.
For his career, Paddack has been a roughly league average starter with a 4.20 ERA (97 ERA+) and a 3.94 FIP in 330 1/3 innings of work. Those career numbers are somewhat hampered by Paddack’s struggles in a pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign and an injury-shortened 2021 season; the Twins are surely hoping that, once fully healthy, Paddack can return to the form he displayed in 2019 when he posted a 3.33 ERA in 140 2/3 innings of work.
Also taking positive steps in his attempt to return from injury is infielder Royce Lewis, who has missed the past month with an oblique strain after starting the season on the injured list while recovering from knee surgery. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune, Lewis took batting practice on the field yesterday as he continues to ramp up his rehab process. Nightengale indicates that Lewis could rejoin the Twins’ lineup as soon as this month, though he cautions that Lewis’s return is still a matter of weeks away rather than days.
Lewis’s return would surely provide a major boost to a Twins lineup that has suffered a variety of injuries throughout the season, with Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, and Jose Miranda all currently joining Lewis on the shelf. In 26 games this season, the talented youngster has slashed .326/.354/.474 that’s good for a 131 wRC+. That figure would represent a massive upgrade over the club’s current production at the hot corner, as Twins third basemen have combined for a wRC+ of just 90 this season with a 0.7 fWAR that ranks bottom ten in the majors.
While Minnesota’s lineup has received encouraging news on Lewis, the same cannot be said regarding first baseman Alex Kirilloff, who went on the injured list with a shoulder strain at the end of July. Per MLB.com, Kirilloff, who previously underwent an MRI and received a cortisone injection in his ailing shoulder, “was still in the resting and strengthening phase of his recovery” yesterday, with no clear timetable for return. The 25 year old was enjoying something of a breakout season at the plate prior to his injury, locking down first base for the Twins with a slash line of .270/.357/.442 (124 wRC+) in 258 trips to the plate this season.
With Kirilloff on the shelf for the foreseeable future, the Twins have needed to look elsewhere in the lineup for offensive production. Fortunately for the club, they’ve found it in the bat of 26-year-old catcher Ryan Jeffers. While he’s played just 63 games this season thanks to sharing time behind the dish with offseason acquisition Christian Vazquez, Jeffers has slashed a phenomenal .292/.392/.503 (152 wRC+) in 203 trips to the plate this season. That production has seemingly earned Jeffers additional playing time, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman relays that manager Rocco Baldelli has indicated Jeffers will receive starts at DH while Buxton is on the shelf in addition to his usual timeshare with Vazquez.
Buxtons eventual return should have nothing to do with Jeffers getting DH at bats. Jeffers is a better hitter this year, by a wide margin.
He’s definitely earned the ABs this year
Lewis must hold the record for consecutive top 100 prospect lists. Also, Jeffers had never hut well in the minors or majors – when/how did he suddenly learn to hit?
A .400 BABIP will make anyone look good. Anyone who thinks Jeffers is their solution at Dh is being silly
no what’s silly is taking BABIP as a luck stat in 2023. Jeffers has almost 20% line drives and Buxton has a higher infield pop up rate than a line drive rate. that’s not luck that’s a horrific approach swinging hard and praying for home runs
@phantomofdb – BABIP does fluctuate based on the hitter. Jeffers’ previous BABIP in his full seasons (if you can call 236 and 293 PA full seasons) is .259 and .269, respectively. This year, it’s .400. His batted ball types are all right in line with his career averages, and a 19.8% line drive rate is not good. In fact, it’s a little below average. His BIS hard hit rate is poor and his Statcast hard hit rate is good and barrel rates are above average. In addition, his pop up rate is poor and Jeffers isn’t really a ground ball hitter. Even if Jeffers did hit a lot of ground balls, he’s slow.
In summary, there’s utterly nothing to suggest Jeffers hasn’t just been incredibly fortunate with BABIP this year.
With all the swing and miss in his game, lack of speed, generally mediocre contact, Jeffers would be a black hole at the plate without the big power. He’s basically Gary Sanchez with a little less game power, but a little better contact.
the argument in this thread is that Jeffers shouldn’t be DH because his BABIP is high. Buxton is the other choice.
If 19.8% is not good, what is Buxtons 14%…
Jeffers is absolutely the right choice with this roster
Jeffers is simply making contact swinging as soft as I’ve seen him , he’s locked in when ur that strong to begin with a la Garver you might as well shoot the ball the other way and focus 100% on contact.
He’s always had that in him, throughout his minor LG development.
I think this approach is here to stay for 2024 as well before he flares out
Paddack is a 2-pitch guy who should be moved to the bullpen after 2 TJS.
Vazquez has been awful at the plate. Jeffers should be starting 75%games at C.
The thing about Paddack I’ve always found strange is that most people act like he’s a really good pitcher, but he isn’t. When he isn’t inured he struggles.
I think it’s because of how good of a prospect he was at one point, and his good rookie season. Paddack had some insane numbers in 2018, only walking eight in 90 innings. Then he went from Double-A to the Majors, and proceded put up a 126 ERA+ and WHIP under 1.00 in 2019. Probably one of the best rookie seasons to recieve not a single Rookie of The Year vote. I agree that a bullpen move is probably what will become of Paddack. In his career, opponents hit .218/.265/.384 the first time facing him, then hit .263/.301/.464 the second time.
I hadn’t noticed how poorly Paddack went through the order.
1st time – 3.54 xFIP
2nd time – 3.92 xFIP
3rd time – 4.80 xFIP
His K rate had become pretty pedestrian and he wasn’t able to get out of jams it seems. He’s probably a #4-5 rotation arm… before the 2nd TJ. Good thing the Twins locked him up!
Twins will win central around 500 , crapshoot of playoffs , good staff , could win the series.
That’s baseball
I am looking forward to the Dallas Keuchel start today against the Diamondbacks.
Let’s hope the 2015 Cy Young winner has enough left in his tank to lead the Twins to a playoff win or two.
I think it would be more realistic to say, let’s hope the guy has enough left in the tank to make a couple 5 inning spot starts without getting shelled so hard the Twins have no hope of winning the games.
Keuchel had a 2.31 ERA in 4 starts last year for the Rangers’ AAA affiliate. That translated to a 12.60 ERA in the major leagues when they called him up. I don’t think Keuchel has anything left in him except the ability to get minor leaguers out. There’s no shame in that, he’s had a great career, but there’s a time when players just need to retire, and I don’t expect his time in the majors to go any better this year than last.
Nothing about the brawl last night on this website? I get that it’s a rumors website, but they publish all kinds of non-rumors type of news here. That was one for the ages.
Modern day Jackie Robinson…..not Sugar Ray.
What happened last night needed to happen. The fact that Anderson had to be carried off the field was icing on the cake. I’m a CLE fan, so naturally I’m biased, but Ramirez was right – Anderson had had this coming for a while.
Anderson’s a clown and has been running his mouth too much, hopefully Ramirez’ right hook shuts him up for a while.
I miss the days when players like Anderson would run their mouths and a Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan or Pedro Martinez would put one behind their ears before drilling them with the next pitch. There’s no respect or sportsmanship in the game anymore its been replaced by “flair” and “self-expression”
It was nice to see Kirilloff come back and play pretty consistently this year after his wrist issues. To see him go down for weeks with a shoulder issue is just more bad news about the potential he truly has to be counted on as an every day player.
Lewis looks to be on the long end of the 6-8 week recovery time table for the grade 2 strain. It’s getting hard to get too excited about his potential at this point, especially considering how unprofessional his at bats were prior to the injury. He was getting results, but following a terrible process.
Jeffers might slot well in at 1st base as we wait for Kirriloff. It certainly would be an upgrade to Gallo at 1st. Christian Vasquez at Catcher is good with the glove and even he is an upgrade to Gallo with the bat.
I still am amazed Gallo continues to be in the lineup batting .175. It’s time to end that experiment. Wallner looks to be a massive upgrade to Gallo and it’s time to see what he can do with regular playing time. Wallner is very good in his preparation approach as well and seems to take playing the game as a Minnesotan seriously. More of him and less of Gallo is a great thing.
Then there is Correa. I am wondering if some mental health time would be a good thing for him. He still is incredible in the field, but he clearly can do more at the plate and I think a reset his needed for him. Even last night on Jeffers double I was surprised he did not score from 1st base. He can run a bit harder than we have seen. Perhaps it is the plantar faciatis that is effecting his game. On the base pads he just appears very slow.
Hopefully Buxton is getting a proper reset as well.
I sense if the Twins stop swinging for the fences in every at bat and just try to have good at bats hitting the ball hard and making contact we would see greater success.
Pleasant surprise is Max Kepler. Is it a mirage or did he finally figure something out?
Kepler has always been very streaky. I suspect he is highly motivated given the fact he’s going to be a free agent.
He’s only a free agent if the Twins don’t pick up his option.
So you believe the Twins will pick up his option to try and flip him?
I’m not sure what they will do. Just stating that he’s not a free agent unless the Twins want him to be one. He has no control over the situation.
In my opinion, it would be more shocking if the option is declined rather than if it was picked up. I’m basing that on the fact that he’s been an average player at best for the last 3-4 years and they’ve still kept him this entire time.
With the way things are going, I really don’t see him gone, but I could be wrong. The OF for next year without him would be something like Wallner, Larnach and fill in the blank ( FA, Lewis?, Martin?)
Buxton, Wallner, somebody else (Lewis maybe). Considering the Twins shopped Kepler HARD this past offseason and actually had him already gone in their minds before being unable to move him should indicate Kepler’s market value at $8.5MM. With the option sitting at $10.5MM, I could definitely see interest in sign/trade if Kepler is able to stay hot through seasons end to erase memories of his abysmal start.
I think Kepler has largely worn out his welcome with the Twins. Fan favorite (especially with the ladies, lol), but his attitude and commitment to the team has been questionable for a long time and his value, apart from his excellent defense in right field, has been very limited.
If they dont resign Gray and Kenta this off-season the FO is crazy, DO NOT rely on Paddack to be a replacement
I don’t think Gray particularly likes Baldelli or his experience with the Twins. Since the Twins were seriously mulling trading Maeda, you have to wonder how high they are on him.
The Twins could be scary good if they could keep the young hitters in the lineup.
I wonder if Jeffers’ emergence if carried through the rest of the season will have the Twins shop Vazquez over the winter. He’s definitely missing hitting at Fenway from an offensive perspective and he’s too expensive to be a backup Catcher
Yeah I agree 1 of Gray or Maeda is needed to be re-signed
It might be tough to decide which 1