Red Sox fans have been waiting roughly a half decade to see whether 2018 first-round pick Triston Casas would eventually become a fixture in the lineup. The hulking 6’4″, 252-pound slugger was selected with the No. 26 overall pick that year and has ranked among baseball’s 100 best prospects in each of the past four offseasons according to both Baseball America and MLB.com.
As recently as this April, however, the early returns were looking questionable. Casas got a cup of coffee last season, hitting five homers and walking at a 20% clip in 95 plate appearances — but also hitting the ball on the ground at a whopping 56.8% clip. Not an ideal trait for a slow-footed slugger. Add in a sluggish start to this season, which saw Casas pare back that ground-ball rate but experience a large uptick in strikeout percentage (30.2% through 96 plate appearances), and it was hardly a promising start. Through his first 192 big league plate appearances, Casas batted .162/.319/.344 with an elite 18.8% walk rate and above-average but not elite power. He fanned in 27.2% of those plate appearances.
In the three and a half months since, however, Casas has not only turned things around — he’s emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-lineup bat — at least against right-handed pitching. In his past 301 trips to the plate, Casas has produced a mammoth .293/.379/.540 output with 16 home runs, 13 doubles and a pair of triples. His walk rate is “down” to 12.3% in that time, and he’s fanned at a 23.6% rate that’s only slightly north of the league average.
The biggest change in Casas’ first couple months of big league experience and this productive stretch has been one of passivity — or rather, lack thereof. From last year’s debut through early May this year, Casas swung at just 62.9% of the pitches he saw within the strike zone (and 40% of pitches overall). During his this streak of mashing at the plate, he’s swinging at 72.2% of pitches in the strike zone and 45.2% of the pitches he sees overall. He’s now swinging at in-zone pitches at a higher-than-average rate (league average is 68.7%) but still swinging at a lower total percentage of pitches than the league-average 47.3%. That’s because Casas is rarely enticed by pitches out of the zone; he’s chased off the plate at just a 25.6% clip — more than six percentage points beneath the 31.8% league average.
As far as the quality of Casas’ contact, it’s been excellent. He was making consistent hard contact even before his early-May turnaround began, but the increased aggression within the strike zone now just means he’s making a lot more of it. Casas has averaged 91.5 mph off the bat this season (league average is 89.1 mph) and put 46.1% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or more (league average is 39.3%). Statcast has classified 14.5% of his batted balls as “barreled” (16.1% during his peak productivity).
Granted, some of the breakout has been a function of Casas being shielded from left-handed pitching. Casas has clear platoon issues in his young career, hitting just .193/.343/.325 against southpaws versus .257/.357/.503 against righties. This season, he’s 219th in the Majors with just 77 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The Sox haven’t completely eliminated his playing time against southpaws, but compare his total plate appearances against southpaws to fellow lefty-swinging teammates like Rafael Devers (148 plate appearances), Masataka Yoshida (123) and Alex Verdugo (140) — and it becomes clear that the Sox have at best been selective about the opportunities they’ll give him versus same-handed opposition.
Time will tell whether this year’s usage signals intent for long-term platooning or is just a means of building some confidence in the burgeoning young slugger. If the Sox want to platoon Casas moving forward, there’s at least one natural candidate down on the farm in 28-year-old Bobby Dalbec. Once a fairly heralded prospect himself, Dalbec has been squeezed out of the mix on the big league roster but responded with an outstanding .278/.384/.589 batting line and 30 homers in Triple-A this year. Against left-handed pitching, he’s posted a ludicrous .347/.438/.640 line. Dalbec’s future in Boston — he could potentially be a trade target for a club with eyes on giving him an everyday look this winter — is a topic worth diving into on its own, but suffice it to say he’s at least played his way into consideration for such a role. If not, the free agent market this offseason will feature right-handed bats like Garrett Cooper, C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano and Darin Ruf.
The Sox started Casas against southpaw MacKenzie Gore last night and left him in to face lefty reliever Jose Ferrer. (Casas went 1-for-3, singling off Ferrer.) It’s probably in their best interest to continue giving Casas opportunities against southpaws down the stretch, both to get him additional experience in left-on-left matchups and to help evaluate whether they’ll need a platoon partner for him in the long run.
Casas is still a work in progress defensively (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -11 Outs Above Average), and it’s an open question just how productive he’ll end up being against left-handed pitching. If he can narrow his platoon splits and/or make some strides on the defensive side of his game, he has star potential in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. He already looks the part against right-handed pitching, however, and Casas’ dedication to the science of hitting (check out his recent Q&A with FanGraphs’ David Laurila) should serve him well as he looks to become a more complete hitter.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Needless to say, with a stat line as Ludacris as that one has to question whether Dalbec is merely BABIP-ing all over the world.
Thanks, I’ll see myself out now.
There’s a poster who I shall not name, who comments on pretty much every single Red Sox post, who kept saying Casas should be sent to the minors early on this year.
It was funny then and even funnier now.
Casas is just 23 years old and under team control for years.
in 417 career at bats, he has a .823 OPS with 24 home runs.
Probably worth keeping around.
In 114 starts at 1B he has a -7 DRS and -14 OAA. That is certainly the kind of guy worth keeping around.
After all there are a couple guys worse than him worth glove and hitting is all that really matters … in fantasy baseball.
1) 23 year olds can and often do get better defensively, especially at a position that is more about polish than athleticism (as athleticism can’t be faked).
2) If not, the DH position isn’t going anywhere.
3) These sorts of things should be common sense and go without saying. Unfortunately, the internet will internet when it will.
23 year olds can and often do get worse at defense, especially at a position that is just as much about athleticism as polish, whatever the bleep polish means in your universe. Casas has no range. If it’s not hit or thrown directly to him he has little chance of catching it. He is not suddenly going to get quicker. Chances are as he ages he gets slower.
His WAR is already below league average and at DH that will go down. So will his value.
These kinds of things would be common sense but apparently not for you.
If someone is bad at defense and then doesn’t have to play defense, their WAR goes up not down.
“DH position isnt going anywhere”
Im pretty sure its going to Devers.
We get it.. We all remember your mental breakdown a few months back,
Did Casas have sex with your mom or something?
the options on said poster are pretty limited although one of them has several names at this point
It was Fever Pitch.
his batting average on all things red sox is well below the mendoza line
Not a huge surprise there… he always makes it a point to be right, doesn’t he? And every single one of his posts always has a like on it or two (if anyone notices)
Bunch of bs that Fever said this team can compete. He’s been talking crap about them since day 1.
I can’t reply to him because he blocked me.
Doom – I think you meant can’t compete.
My question to you is “Are they competing?”
Sure they have a slight chance of making the last playoff spot which didn’t exist until recently but is that competing or simply not drowning?
This team had a history of 90 or more wins until Bloom showed up. This team lost all-stars Bogey, JD and Eovaldi and added no all-stars. That’s known as a significant drop in talent. It’s hard to win without talent and it’s even harder to win over 90 games without talent. Devers is our lone all-star and hopefully by next year Casas and/or Duran might join him. I was speaking to the offense. The pitching is great and has improved thanks to the farm system guys who never were recognized by the rating services and of course Kenley and Martin.
I agree with Fever’s comments about how bad this team is in comparison to what they had when Bloom arrived. Apologists rationalize why he’s taken the talent level down so far but he needs to be accountable for being less than 10 games over .500 after 4 seasons at the helm.
Dombrowski’s 4 seasons left us 120 games over .500. After experiencing that type of quality team it’s only natural for the hardcore diehard Red Sox fans to be angry at what Bloom has done. Sure nobody likes when people complain daily but his comments aren’t wrong. They might be repetitive but change happens when fans are unhappy. Change should have happened years ago with regard to Bloom because his vision doesn’t align with Red Sox fan thinking and clearly it doesn’t produce good results.
So if the Bloom supporters want to suggest things are going well and the Bloom detractors want to point out the never ending mistakes, isn’t that what this site is all about?
As far as Casas is concerned. Two philosophies exist for struggling top prospects.
1 – Put them back in the minors and let them beat up AAA pitchers to build confidence and have someone work with them on how to make in season adjustments
2 – Let the player learn under fire and hope that success comes before he breaks. Casas made a break through which was very fortunate for him and the Red Sox future. Had that not happened, another Dalbec situation would have occurred. Let’s be thankful the guess worked out and things are good. There is NOT one way that is always right when it comes to the choice presented to the Red Sox with Casas. It was a gamble and it paid off. The book says send him down and build his confidence like Fever suggested.
They won 84 games in 2019. On pace for 84 this year. Only now they have an actual farm system to promote from. Which 84 wins seem like they can be built on and which 84 wins seem like they can’t? I’ll give you a hint. The 84 wins from the highest payroll team in baseball that still has to pay David Price 32 million per year for another 5 years and has the lowest ranked farm in baseball with no potential starting players on the horizon for another 5 years is the bad 84 win team. They’re not worse now than when Bloom took over, they just don’t have the same amount of star power. Some Red Sox fans think they’re too good for a rebuild, but a rebuild was the only option. And when you’re 5 years in and just starting to see the fruits of that labor, even though your entire system lost a year of development time in 2020, you’re still complaining.
No, I meant can compete. If you read the post in this thread, Fever mentions that he said all along this team had a chance. Yet, that is not in line with his constant Bloom, Cora, and player bashing.
I am not a supporter of Bloom, but I don’t spend every living day on here shoving opinions down people’s throats and making false assumptions and judgments about them just because I disagree.
Fever is simply walking back comments. Overall, things have gone his way, so I’m not sure why he’s doing that, but adding this layer of support doesn’t match everything he’s said previously.
@Doom, in fairness to Fever, his spring trainings posts were more on point then not. While he spent a lot of energy ranting on Bloom, he also gave fair assessment to the rotation. The rotation did look almost decent on paper but injuries would be a major problem. He was right. And if I recall, D&B, you gave pretty much the same outlook?
Fever took a lot heat for the way he predicted what the Sox standings would look like at end of season because he gave heavy weight team schedule strength. And guess what all us have been doing since right before the Tor series… “We need to sweep Tor, take 8 of 10 on the home stand, and hold our own after that because the strength of schedule isn’t in our favor.”
FPG predicted another .500 season. Sox are 5 games over .500 with more of that hard schedule ahead.
In the end, he may end up right!
And @FPG, unblock Doom. How can the rest of us watch you 2 argue if both of you have your duck lips taped shut? I loved watching you two argue the same point in different ways while pretending to disagree lol.
No how many different ways you say it and how many times you say…. we get it you hate Bloom and thought Dombrowski was the god of all GM’s.
Mookie – Wow are your facts wrong. Seldom do I read something so misinformed. Lets correct your comments:
1 – Not on a pace to win 84 games thanks to strength of schedule
2 – They averaged over 90 with DD so why be excited about 84?
3 – David Price is off the books and Bloom hurt Boston with the deal because they had $16MM in dead money for 3 years. Smart GMs don’t do buy downs and reduce the money available to them under the CAP.
4 – Bloom’s addition to the farm system have not made the majors so all the good will you are pouring into the farm system is for Dombrowskis farm system not Blooms. It will be years before we can see if Bloom’s drafts turn out well and if you know of a smart acquisition whether by trade or free agent that is now in our farm system thanks to Bloom please name him I’ll save you hours of research, there are NONE. The farm system isn’t improved it’s simply being judged more fairly because the previous GMs players are proving to be better than the rating system evaluated them to be.
5 – The star power is what differentiates a good team from a bad team. All successful programs have star power.
6 – Nobody in their right mind rebuilds a World Championship team who was in the middle of their prime except an inexperienced ego maniac like Bloom
7 – Your system losing a year of development applies to the previous GMs only. This GM and his bad management of the farm system was not impacted by COVID. His recent successes like Casas, Houck and Duran are all Dombrowski guys that were woefully under-rated by the farm system rating services because they are all clueless. Farm value should be based on graduation not potential. Farm services treat it like futures whereas intelligent fans watch the results of how many graduate and contribute regardless of their ratings. Swhihart was rated higher than Mookie. No better proof that rating systems are clueless.
8. – Asking a big market fan base that just won 3 division titles for the first time in the franchise’s history and a World Series to wait five years so some inexperienced GM can tear down the greatness and rebuild a small market team in it’s place should be such an obvious mistake even a non fan such as yourself would understand that.
Bloom flushed this organization down the the toilet 2 years after they won a RING with a team filled with players in their prime, a few younger than their prime and a few on the other side of their prime. Their age formed a perfect bell curve that was smack dab in the middle of it’s prime. Waiting wasn’t necessary, it was a colossal waste of time for Red Sox fans.
Cooper – It’s not about personalities it’s about performance.
DD – 3 division titles and a ring then a bad year caused by a Cora mistake and injuries
Bloom – 4th worst record in baseball, an exciting season thanks to the remnants from the 2018 team, a bad team and yet another bad team in four years.
Results matter. It’s never personal it’s simply an evaluation that is so obvious it’s hard to understand why people argue it.
Like you, all I want is success for the Red Sox. I haven’t seen it since the day they fired Dombrowski. He had a plan which is unique among GMs, he was executing his plan which included no responsibility for mistakes by the previous GMs and a payroll budget that pushed the CAP but didn’t exceed it. He brought winning at a fair cost and his use of the farm system was brilliant. He pruned the over-rated prospects to get valuable MLB assets and he kept those which were to blossom into Red Sox stalwarts of he future like Houck, Casas and Duran.
We agree about 1 thing….. Cora is terrible….Blame on Bloom as much as you want, but no matter what people think, Cora was not Bloom’s choice, although I am not a Bloom lover, we can disagree on the direction of this club moving forward for the future. The Prospects coming in the next few years will make this team a WS contender for a while as long as they trade some of their prospects that will be blocked for good quality young controllable starting pitching. Spending money on free agent pitchers for the most part is disastrous. First thing they need to do in the off season is move on from Cora…. and for all you Bloom blamers, he is not going anywhere..
Trollfree
So if the Bloom supporters want to suggest things are going well and the Bloom detractors want to point out the never ending mistakes, isn’t that what this site is all about?
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Let us look that was done by CB, if you don’t see in support:
Bullpen reconstructed for 2 seasons fully, when DD left garbage bullpen after 2019.
1) Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski, Whitlock, Bernardino, Murphy is can be one of the best bullpen in all baseball in a next season.
2) Yoshi (12 HR) and Turner (19 HR) without problems Bogey (15HR 2022) and JD (16HR 2022)
replaced in an attack.
Yoshi 106G, 12HR, 119Wrc+, .822 Ops, 63G (LF) – ( -1.0dWar, -4Rdrs), $18m AAV.
Benintendi 113G, 2HR!!!, 91Wrc+, .691 Ops, 110G(LF) – (-0.7dWar, -3Rdrs), $15m AAV – for this production we got – Winckowski (P, debut in MLB 2022 – 44G, 64.2IP, 3.20ERA MLB, 2023) and Gambrell (SP, AA – 14GS, 78.1IP, 3.56ERA 2023).
3) C.Wong 96G, 6HR, 81Wrc+,.679 Ops, 93G (C) – (+1.5dWar, +5Rdrs) 37A, 10E, 49/17 SB/CS 25%, min. of MLB.
C.Vazquez 77G, 3HR, 61Wrc+,.579 Ops, 73g (C) – ( +0.4dWar, +3Rdrs) 22A, 9E high career, 45/13 SB/CS 22%,$10 m AAV!!! – for this production we got Valdez (INF/DH debut in MLB 2023 – 94AB, 4HR, 81Wrc+,.684Ops and W.Abreu (OF, AAA – 83G, 290AB!!!, 21HR!!!,.917Ops 2023).
In a difference from Vazquez, Wong has potential in an attack, that he proved not one time in minor leagues, conducts the first complete season in MLB.
4) J.Paxton got for this production of Red Sox (SP, 16GS, 86.1IP, 3.34ERA, 2023) $4 m AAV is a very successful investment of $10 m on starting pitcher for 2 Y’s.
5) We have the controlled kernel of command on a next season:
Devers, Yoshida, Casas, Duran, Story, Bello, Wong, Verdugo, Crawford, Winckowski, Whitlock, Houck, Martin, Jansen, Pivetta, Schreiber, Bernardino, Murphy that can be diluted by such prospects as W.Abreu, Rafaela, Walter, Valdez, Drohan and maybe later in the next season of Yorke and Mayer
and we can bargain in a next offseason for a starting pitcher or to go out into FA without a damage for the system of farm.
Trollfree
Like you, all I want is success for the Red Sox. I haven’t seen it since the day they fired Dombrowski. He had a plan which is unique among GMs, he was executing his plan which included no responsibility for mistakes by the previous GMs and a payroll budget that pushed the CAP but didn’t exceed it. He brought winning at a fair cost and his use of the farm system was brilliant.
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I know the unique plan of DD for GMs – to exchange bits and pieces of farm for the tested players and us yet greater hunger would wait from the system of farm.
Lol!!!!!
I don’t have a problem with Fever Pitch’s analysis, it was when he directly called me out and put words in my mouth to frame and make judgements on my opinion.
“And every single one of his posts always has a like on it or two”
Lol, FPG often gets 5 or 6 likes with 5 mins. Its almost as if they all log on consecutively right after him. Sometimes they even throw out softball compliment/questions to himself, err I mean to him.
Fair ’nuff
I just find it ironic how he talks so harshly about Bloom but fails to acknowledge how much inept Cashman and the Yankees have been this season. FPG never mentions the Yankees- it’s complete crickets, yet he’s a Sox fan who continually bashes Bloom.
He continuously goes to Sox topics to trash his own team but I’ve rarely seen him talk on anything Yankees or when other teams are worse off. Yankees are the epitome of spending money but he’s okay when they fail and invest in big deals, yet he can’t stand anything Bloom does which looks minor to the deals Cashman has made.
Cooper – I guess I simply don’t see WHO Bloom has brought in as prospects that will help in the coming years. He might have made some nice draft picks but whoever was the GM would likely have made the Mayer pick since he was the 2nd best player in the draft and he dropped to fourth.
The guys like Houck, Casas, Duran etc. clearly make the future rosier and they all existed before Bloom so DD would have enjoyed seeing his under-rated prospects enjoy careers far greater than those predicted by the rating services.
Bloom has given away 5 all-star caliber players since he arrived and added an all-star closer and Story. Yoshida is looking good but was not an all-star level player like Mookie, Bogie, Nate, JD or even Benny. He may be in the future and I hope that happens but Bloom has not addressed the need for star players and hitting on farm system guys is not a simple process. We had Bogey, then Betts, then Benny then Devers then a dry spell and then Casas, Duran and Houck. Who has Bloom brought in through trades or free agency acquisitions that makes you think the future is better because of him? Or is it reallythe guys who already were in the farm system but were under valued like we’ve seen in 2023?
I want to see hope but I don’t so I’m looking for an assist from anyone.
Bogie – I mean no disrespect but is English your second language? I can’t understand what you write. You make long lists that don’t seem to apply to the content you were addressing and you write indecipherable comments that end in LOL!!!
Please don’t respond to my comments. It’s far too difficult to decipher your response and it always ends up being nonsense. Thank you.
IF it helps, please mute me!!
Doom – I’m an equal opportunity basher based on performance.
I have long thought Cashman is the most over-rated GM because he gets an open checkbook and can’t figure out who is all show and who is legit.. He always makes a splash with his player but usually they sink to the bottom of the pool!! The Yankees won a World Series 50% of the time from the early 1920s to 1962. Since then they’ve continued to spend light years more than everyone else with minimal results. 20 Rings by 1962 and 7 in the 61 years since. From 1988 to 2018 (31 years) NY spent on average $20MM more per season on their payroll and back at the beginning of that period payrolls were around $100MM. Yes, in 30 years they spent more than 6 billion more than Boston and won 5 rings while Boston won 4.
My problem is that NY and BOS now resemble each other. Cashman is awful but different than Bloom. Neither can identify a quality player but one likes to spend big and the other likes to spend small but the same total. Neither finds many quality players so their teams compete but don’t win. Then you have the two worst Managers in baseball. They picked the wrong Boone brother to manage. They picked the flashy one not the baseball savvy one. Boston on the other hand chose the cheater rather than the savvy ex-pitcher who knew how to handle a pitching staff but didn’t speak two languages.
I am with you completely that NY doesn’t get bashed as often as they should be but for me I hate to kick someone when they are down. Bloom deserves to be kicked because he created our down situation but Cashman simply perpetuated it. The Yankees have not been great in a quarter of a century and Boston was great 5 years ago before Bloom.
Trollfree
You are angered, because, I criticize unique GM in the person of DD, that for you inviolable.
You can disconnect to me a sound, if you do not maintain criticism – you disconnected a sound to other users when they did not agree with your point of view.
Trollfree
Please don’t respond to my comments. It’s far too difficult to decipher your response and it always ends up being nonsense. Thank you.
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I paraphrase, if you don’t understand what speech goes about.
DD had a plan – to change such prospects as Houck, Duran, Casas on the tested players of Major League, this Dave engaged in since became GM of Red Sox.
I understand why you support Dombrowski.
I don’t agree with his conception for the short-term winning.
Is it A MAN DUHHHHH
Stats – I haven’t seen “her” in a long time. “She” was nasty for sure, wishing illness and injury on players she didn’t like. I think she even wished death on one of them.
She posted like 10 consecutive posts about wander the other I call her saying hey you can post it all in one and he takes that as in supporting a child molester. Don’t think I’ve met someone that dumb on here since the days of xiabal or strike four. Or that one browns fan who supported Watson
syco – There were several regular posters who stated Casas should have been sent down early in the season, and I was one of them. That’s because unlike you and others, I believed this team could contend therefore I didn’t want the team constantly losing games because of his early season struggles. He should have figured it out in the minors, not on a major league team trying to contend. And we were right, his early season performance proves that.
If you’re trying to troll by making it seem like a bunch of us felt Casas would never make it, you’ve failed at doing so.
Why would my pointing out a fact that you agree with constitute trolling?
There was just one guy, who mentioned it over and over,
It was really hilarious. dude was completely over the top.
Ahaha. He thought the Red Sox could contend?
Bless his heart.
By the way Fever, I definitely remember you saying they were going to contend, I forget why. Can you remind me?
You’re right about me never thinking that.
syco – All good, I don’t want to make a big deal out of this. It was the “funny” part that came across as mocking, even though many fans and analysts and media were all saying the same thing back then. I’m just glad he finally figured it out, batting against RHP anyways. Let’s see if any of the others here step up too.
syco – Going back to ST, I believed the following could happen … and I believed if most of it did, they’d be contending.
1) Sale staying healthy
2) Paxton staying healthy
3) Houck staying healthy
4) Whitlock staying healthy
5) Yoshida hitting like he did in Japan
6) Casas having a ROY-caliber season
Looks like only half panned out, Paxton & Yoshida & Casas (depending on how you look at them).
We all know Sale was a big “IF”, but Houck staying healthy is not on him, that was just a freak thing and a shame. As far as Whitlock…. thats on the Organization as a whole…. he is not a starting pitcher. They need to stop jacking him around and plug him into the relief role once and for all.
syco – I’ve got connections, they showed me how to easily find my old comments.
Here’s the link to some of my many optimistic preseason posts when I was really excited about the team, of course I got a lot of crap for being so optimistic. LOL!
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/the-volatile-red-sox-ro…
Fever Pitch Guy
6 months ago
GASox – I think the writer nails it in his final sentence, the potential is there for either a great season or a disastrous one. Most observers have been saying as such. A healthy Sale, Paxton, Kluber and Whitlock would be HUGE.
Add to that Yoshida possibly performing as he did in Japan and Casas having an Alonso-type rookie year, and the Sox could certainly contend.
Fever Pitch Guy
6 months ago
lamars – I’m not saying Casas having an Alonso-type rookie season will happen, I’m saying if it does happen the Sox could contend.
Fever Pitch Guy
6 months ago
GASox – Keep in mind “contend” means an 83-79 Orioles team that finished just 3 games out of a playoff spot.
Sure the odds of most of those things happening are against them, but it’s possible and I’m trying to be optimistic here. LOL
I didn’t want the team constantly losing games because of his early season struggles.
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He didn’t really struggle after the first 8 games, For the remainder of the month, he hit 2 HRs in 52 ABs, with a 21/14 K/W. After that, most of the statistics are just noise.
The simplest formula is to take a players’ OPS, and adjust his BABIP to .300 (it should be lower, but more difficult to work with. Double the difference between his BABIP and .300 and subtract or add it back to his OPS, That’s his adjusted OPS, If you do that for Casas, his monthly OPS is:
Apr .872
May .714
Jun .751
Jul .999
Aug .863
You can regress HRs using HR/FB, but that is more uncertain. Just don’t use OPS by itself in short samples.
You adjust by % of balls in play, not double the difference.
Joe – Did you really say the simplest formula is to take a players OPS and adjust his BABIP to .300? Seriously. That is what you call simple?
How about checking his BA, OBP, SLG and SB. To me that’s the simplest.
If you want to go crazy you can also check his fielding percentage to see if he executes defense on balls he gets to. Old School and still the best ways to evaluate players on offense and defense.
You adjust by % of balls in play, not double the difference.
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No. You double it because both OPS & SLG include hits. If you are 20-100 with a .200 BABIP, then theoretically you should have ten more hits. So your average goes from .200 to .300, and depending on the mix of XBH, your slugging goes up as well.
How about checking his BA, OBP, SLG and SB.
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You can do what you want, but you look foolish commenting on things that you don’t understand. If you want to check a players BA, OBP, and SLG, it is all part of OPS. That is literally what the initials “OPS” stands for.
And since SBs aren’t included in OPS or BABIP, I am not sure why you would include that.
Pretty out of line to just declare “right” as if it’s obvious. In reality, your “right” was correct only for a month (Casas had a very solid .766 OPS in May, and it’s been .825 or higher in every month since) and that was fueled by the obvious fluke of a .152 BABIP. So you were “right” by only the shortest of margins, and only by false facade even during that period.
To put it another way…you were wrong in all the most meaningful ways. Pretty weak to try to grasp straws to fake a “right” call out of that shadow.
Casas is going to end his season at about 1.5 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR. Quite a bit lower than the 2.0 league average. At least you can say that he is better than a replacement level player.
I am sure that having a lead glove platoon 1B with limited range is exactly what the Red Sox want.
He has 24 homers and an 823 OPS as a 23 year old rookie,
Yeah, at the price they’re paying him, if he continues that production, that’s pretty much exactly what the Red Sox want.
No one saying he’s an all star.
I would hope they are not saying he is an All Star. That would be pretty stupid. He is not even league average.
If he continues at a 1.5 bWAR his price won’t go up much even when he gets to arbitration in a few years, so maybe that is the silver lining. The Red Sox can have a below league average 1B for cheap.
Yeah, I mean, we all know every player never gets better after their first 400 at bats.
It’s a real shame when people hold so hard onto negativity that the only explanation can be sad bias. 1) The article was about highlighting improvement in his performance; obviously, the value-dragging early portion of the season makes the overall look unimpressive. The idea is that this is *promising*, and with the article not trying to paint that as superstardom there is no reason to try to pour cold water on that. 2) In what world does it make sense to dump on the defense of a 23 year old first baseman, as if that is a done deal forevermore? Yeah, if that stays the same it will drag on his value in the future; I don’t imagine any teams are going to rush to discard a valuable bat just because the inexperienced glove begs improvement.
Yes, having a bat that comes with a high prospect profile and rapid improvement at a young age is something *every* team wants.
They do it because they are bitter. The dude is a rookie. I actually don’t care that much about his current results, or his torrid 2nd half. It is all about development.
“Arrived” presupposes star status or at least league average. Casas is nearly 50% below league average. With his defense he will never be much above league average. In August his performance at the plate has cratered and it got worse over the last week. At his current pace he will end the season at 1.2 WAR. Not good.
Can you tell me any 23 year old rookie, 1B only players whose defense got substantially better as they aged? I looked back 23 years. I couldn’t find any that improved from a -7 DRS to even league average. https://stathead.com on Baseball Reference says there haven’t been any. Maybe you will have better luck.
In the last month his “development” has collapsed.
In the past month, his OPS is .861. How is that collapsing?
One caveat: As long as he keeps improving vs lefthanders and his defense.
Defense, like base running, is mostly about anticipation. The most athletic are rarely the best defensively and the fastest often are not the best baserunners. These are baseball skills and can be learned and developed.
I’ve seen that countless times. There is no definite yes or no, but I have seen GG SS that couldn’t hit a lick raise their average 10 points a year. I’ve seen a number of guys do the same thing on defense.
Joe – Agreed but Devers is not one of them.
Usually the litmus test for defense at 1B consists of:
1 – Reaction time and quickness of hands on pick-offs and infield throws
2 – Footwork to and from the bag
3 – Handling the odd trajectories on foul pop-ups
4 – Ability to scoop
Casas like all players can improve at most of these but the key aspect that often gets overlooked is #1. Slow reaction times on pick-offs and learning flight paths of each player throwing in the infield is not as easily improved as the others on the list. Repetition is great but reaction times are not easily improved. Time will tell if Casas can have hands and reaction times like Moreland or will he be closer to Dalbec who was not good reacting to throws.because he was a 3B/SS most of his career since childhood. The same is true for Casas so the jury is out.
hayzee – I agree anticipation is important for defense, but hand/eye coordination and reflexes are more important. For a first baseman, many errors occur when groundballs take unexpected bounces and the first baseman doesn’t react to it. On throwing errors, the hand direction and release of the ball doesn’t align with the viewed target.
Sure sometimes there’s a delayed reaction, but lack of concentration is not that common on well-managed/coached teams.
35/100 guy next year.
I assume you mean homeruns and RBI, but I thought you were making a contract length joke.
Seager – Thank you for not putting an “s” after RBI, it’s irritating that so many others make that silly mistake.
Fever depends on the context. You wouldn’t say Yordan went out and had 5 rbi today you’d say he went out and had 5 rbis today
Stats Guy – RBI is an acronym for Runs Batted In.
You wouldn’t say Run Batted Ins, would you?
lets all stick to RsBI in all contexts, as to avoid confusion on this pressing issue.
Lol I obviously know that. I’m just saying there are times when rbis is okay. Me personally I call them ribbies when talking about someone and how many they had.
No I wouldn’t I would say Runs Batted In
You wouldn’t say “trout had 35 homers and 100 rbi last year”
You wouldn’t say “trout had 35 homers and 100 rbi last year”
=============================
No one would.
My pet peeve is when people complain about language which is perfectly understandable.
Let’s all stop mentioning RBI. They are a team stat. The guy with the most runners on base has the highest # of RBI most seasons.
There are better stats to describe performance in driving in the highest % of baserunners. On Baseball Reference its BRS%.
League average is 14.3%. Casas is at 11.1%. That’s the worst on the team.
baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2023-batting.shtm…
Scroll down to pr/hr/situ hitting.
You’re a Yankees fan aka my enemy joe. Battery throwing fans what great people. You got a mute button for a reason go ahead and use it. That goes for all yankee fans actually you’re all trash
Joe is a dyed in the wool Red Sox fan.
Personally, I like OPS with runners in scoring position.
And Casas is an average kinda guy on an average kinda team. If you define average rather loosely as being within one standard deviation of the mean.
Fever – Technically, the s is for runs not ins so RBIs is acceptable. 🙂
If you define average rather loosely as being within one standard deviation of the mean.
===================================
You could save fans and writers a whole lot of time if you explained that to them. I had them at 86.5 wins with a range of 79-91. They will have good and bad weeks. If folks understood that they are within that one SD, it would keep both sides in check.
Joe – Thank you for acknowledging your technique for guessing records is nothing more than a simple math equation that suggests mediocrity for the Red Sox. 4 of 15 teams have fit into your range over the last several years and half these teams make the playoffs and half do not.
You spent a lot of time commenting on my technique of creating totals by series yet your approach is completely macro so far less intricate in developing.
I wonder, do you estimate your favorite football team will win 7 to 12 games each season now that they play 17? Or do you follow a team like KC and raise the amounts in accordance with your perception of greatness?
I look forward to your answer.
When you play 17 games, it is all about matchups. When you play 162 games, it is all about overall talent.
I have a life hint for you-when someone is consistently right more often than me, I don’t fight it. I try to figure out why, and if possible, copy the process.
Since I am way more accurate, you should be asking yourself why.
pohle – What if it’s only one? There would be no “s” for just one.
Joe – My pet peeve is the dumbing down of America because people are too afraid to point out when the English language is being used incorrectly.
Personally if I had been using a word or term incorrectly I’d want to know about it, but that’s just me.
And if your response is that you “could care less” I would point out that mistake as well.
Devil – Plenty of writers, broadcasters and analysts use “RBI” when speaking of multiple runs batted in. Here’s just one of many examples:
cbssports.com/mlb/news/angels-superstar-shohei-oht…
He also leads the majors in triples, RBI, slugging percentage
Ohtani is hitting .310/.396/.674 (188 OPS+) with 15 doubles, five triples, 30 home runs, 67 RBI, 60 runs
You’re right, it’s for runs not ins …. so why would you put it directly after the I?
Devil – Did I say everyone correctly writes the proper term for multiple RBI?
No, I did not. Even some sportswriters and announcers use the incorrect term.
You said nobody would write “Trout had 100 RBI last season”. I proved you wrong, now move on.
And by the way, which website would be more apt to use the correct terminology … CBS that specializes in baseball columns, or statmuse that specializes in stats.
Stats folks aren’t exactly known for their communication skills.
Devil – First let me say BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
You muted me for THAT? And then your melodramatic announcement … BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Try to stay away from paper, because one paper cut with that extra-thin skin of yours could cause you to bleed out.
To answer your lame-ass questions …. YES in fact CBSSports is a sports website, and baseball is a sport, so there ya go.
And YES, stats folks are known more for their math skills than for their communication skills. Haven’t you ever watched Big Bang Theory? Dudes can talk circles about math, but can’t talk up a girl without getting tongue-tied if their life depended on it.
If I want to discuss the Fourier-Mukai transform in the derived category of coherent sheaves on an elliptic fibration, then I’d go to a stats person. If I want to read an article that has a good chance of being well written, I’ll read CBS or ESPN or The Athletic or The Ringer.
Adios anonymous thin skin guy.
Devil Rays is a coward. FACTS
As long as 95% of the pitching he sees is RH……jury is out on him consistently being able to hit lefties……time will tell.
You mean today when he hit the missile to left center off of Corbin?
I had my doubts about his splits as a minor leaguer, but his .684 v RHP is acceptable for a rookie.
So it’s Run Batted In or Run Batted Ins?
Yeesh.
Oh wait, maybe it’s Run Batted In’s?
Wha?
In standard usage, it will always be RBIs.
But the column in the box score says RBI. And we don’t use Rs for runs. It’s confusing me.
Hey, Sox won tonight. Yay. Or yeah?
Its ‘Run Batted Inn’
A little place off Rte 114 in Middleton, rents by the hour. Make sure you book the ‘Cave Room’.
hayzee – Yay is a celebratory term, yeah is a term for agreement.
Fever, Sox won again! Yay!
I got full confidence those splits will get better with time if he gets at-bats. This being his first full year in the majors the platoon is great for his confidence.
king – I’m more concerned with his defense, it’s atrocious. Hopefully he can improve on it.
I think once Turner is healthy enough I’d put Turner on 1st for the stretch run and let Casas DH. For his age JT has remarkable range. In the off-season I’d consider trading Casas for MLB ready starting pitching. With Rafaela, Valdez, and Dalbec smoking the ball this year in AAA, Casas is expendable for the right deal. We need starting pitching.
I suggested that pre-season. Casas is better than I expected, but a team like Miami has a heck of a lot more young pitching that us, and they need a 1B. And SD gets very little out of 1B or DH.
Bright future – could be the next Balboni if he works out , gets rest and eats his veggies
Cool, that means I’ll meet his family.
Theo…. Come on you’ve been out of baseball to long Balboni was a righty… and a nice neat head of hair Steve had!!!….FOLKS!!!
Aww, you’re mad a Red Sox player is doing well.
Balboni only had an OPS over .800 once in 11 years, but it sounded good
You could be the next trollfree if you wrote another 100o words per post.
Off topic but you mentioned troll so… I just rewatched South Park when they had the trolling episodes. That conversation between naked Gerald and the Danish guy has had me cracking up all day
Anyone interested I think it’s season 21
And saying the same thing in every post
Sinister – Don’t worry I caught this one and added it to my troll log!! Talk baseball not trash!!! you should get a t-shirt with that on it.
You gonna change your name again? I know it’s scary.
He has a tendency to get on specific internet related terms like troll. A while back it was influencer. He’s proud of himself every time he figures out how to use them in context
I had forgotten about that. A few of the haters use to call the more rational fans “influencers”.
Watched a few at-bats last year, saw the potential. Knew it was just big-league jitters. Who wouldn’t get them. Another stud athlete from the Sunshine State.
Casas has arrived but so have the hungry Nationals. Pathetic how we can’t beat them.
You should probably save “can’t beat them” lines for sweeps (or large loss numbers over a large sample of games). Otherwise, maybe cite losing the series or something, because Tuesday’s result makes the claim sound pretty silly.
Defensively challenged 1st baseman who needs to be platooned. Future looks bright in Boston
17% walk rate with a .172 ISO and just a .278 BABIP versus LHP, all from a young guy who hasn’t gotten much exposure versus that handedness at the MLB level yet (and hasn’t been at the MLB level long, period), Sure seems like a huge stretch to say that “has” to be platooned, versus the obvious “has work to do against LHP if he isn’t going to end up a platoon sort of guy”. But you already knew that.
I don’t think those numbers paint the picture you think they do. Casas isn’t going to be high babip guy and .278 is likely on the higher end of what he will achieve.
Casas isn’t going to be high babip guy and .278
==============================
I’m curious why you would say that. Is there a model that predicts which players will have higher or lower BABIPs?
Sure seems like a huge stretch to say that “has” to be platooned,
=========================
The average lefty v lefty OPS is .685
Casas OPS v lefties is .747.
The haters are going into gyrations trying to find something to be critical about. It is almost like they don’t realize that lefties usually have bad splits against lefties, and it has been that way for thousands of years.
JoeB:
Casas’s splits are bad. You have to look a little further than just “OPS” to see his problem.
1) Casas reaches base by walk a lot whether batting Lefty or Righty. So when a guy has 14 BBs in 66 ABs, that makes a .197 BA transform into a respectable .338 OBP. — That polarization (.197 to .338) says he’s got a great eye for a walk, but hitting lefties poorly.
2) 27 Strikeouts in 66 AB, against lefties, is horrendous.
3) All through his minor league career, Casas has very similar numbers, showing he cant hit lefties. So this isn’t an anomoly.
LHB first basemen vs LHP is a .247/.325/.420/.745 slashline.
Casas vs LHP is a .197/.338/.409/.747 slashline
He doesn’t hit very well, but he walks at a much higher rate than the average LH 1B. So maybe if he just comes to the plate and never swings against LHP.
“sure seems like a huge stretch to say that “has” to be platooned”
Manfred didnt say “has” to be platooned. He said “needs” to be platooned. As in ‘Whitlock “needs” to go to the bullpen’. Whitlock doesnt have to go bullpen, in fact, he’ll be okay in the rotation, but “needs” to for optimal effect.
Changing other people comments to make them sound worse, thus making your argument better, is tacky, and happens far too often at MLBTR.
.293 batting average… Remember when batting averages meant something?
@Melchez17
Nerds don’t care about BA because they couldn’t hit a ball so wanted someone to reward them for getting hit by the pitch.
Nerds always wanted to be part of the cool jocks crowd so they use baseball stats to achieve their goal.
There is a reason for the term dumb jocks. There is also a reason that nerds own and run the teams.
Wow…based on this writers article, I would have thought Casas was hitting better than .255….and what about those “mammoth” 13 doubles (16 total for the season, and 2 triples amongst 16 HR’s in 301 at bats…mostly against RH pitching…….come on Steve…..he was batting .155 or so and while he may turn out to be a pretty good player and he seemingly has gotten better at the plate than earlier in the season, but you make this guy sound like Ted Williams…….barrel rate, hard contact rate exit velocity etc. included…..
If you weren’t aware, clicks matter.
You refer to his season-long batting average in an article that is built around his “arrival” coming after a rough start to the season. How does that make any sense? It isn’t about what he’s done all season long (his April having been blown up by an awful BABIP) but what he’s done since his performance has risen up. This stuff shouldn’t be obvious, and begs the question of why you would so badly overlook something that is so straightforward.
This sounds like a team beat reporter on MLB.com or a player agent writing. If we are talking about Acuna or Ohtani, I get it, but a look at his stats disappoints me. His defense brings down his value even further.
He’s been one of the 10 best hitters since the beginning of July. Go on baseball savant and look at his page. It’s all red
I think averages do matter. As much as fans may want to say “Semien hit .300/.400/.500 after (insert random date),” that doesn’t undo the past. If a guy hit like a pitcher for a while, that matters too. Getting hot for a while die to being more aggressive may not always last, as pitchers always adapt. Becoming more aggressive is rarely a good development that gets guys out of slumps; usually, it is the opposite. I’d like to see a few years before I can say some guy is this good. Even Cody Bellinger/Yelich before this year had a quite long stretch of excellence, but I would not get too carrier away by short sample sizes.
You went off the rails with :hit like a pitcher for a while”. He had a .133 BA in April, yes, but that was on the back of a .155 BABIP, which is a pretty clear positive regression candidate (especially when backed by a lot of positive contact measures). He also walked 16 times with 6 XBHs over his 92 PAs that month, so there was some pretty good stuff happening even as the balls in play weren’t falling in.
In the 305 PAs since then, he has a .911 OPS among many other positive performance measures. Are you seriously going to pitch a single BABIP-dragged month that wasn’t even bad in many other ways as the baseline, over the 3.5 months since then? For a 23 year old? No, the 3.5 months are “hot for a while”? Yikes, I think you’re the one getting carried away by the smaller sample size part of his career thus far.
Did you even read the article? It’s about a very young player seemingly coming into what was hoped from him, even as it spoke about the work to be done on defense and same-handed pitching. You say you don’t get it, but then wrote a comment that didn’t reflect the actual message of the article.
Yet Cora still bats this guy 6 and 7 consistently
Like everything else, Casas’ numbers being lower than they should be is on Cora and his inability to build a logical batting order..
Good Call Jake!!
I’ll eat crow on this one and admit I give Cora credit for sticking with Casas. He could have benched or demoted him and replaced him with Dalbec or Turner. Well played, Alex.
Can’t get used to major league pitching in the minors.
Syco – Most of the pitchers Cora has used this season came directly from the minors.
Yes, of course, your’e right.
Red Sox innings leaders are here espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/type/pitching/name/bos/t…
Bernandino is the first guy “directly from the minors” and he’s 12th in innings pitched.
I feel dumber for even looking that up.
@Milt. Share the fork. I cant stand Cora, it’s the cheater bias in me, but he has been solid with the new hitters. I posted in May that I hoped the Sox would give Casas until the All Star break before sending him down. When you listen to Cora talk hitting, he knows his stuff. He said a while back that Casas was working on pulling less and targeting right center to right. Then he will need to learn to go Oppo when he is ready.
At first glance at Cora’s lineups I want to cringe. Then I realize that Cora is batting Casas lower 3rd of order to protect him. It is his first full season, he is going to tire.
I don’t like Cora, he is a cheater. I think he is a bad manager. But he would be an awesome hitting coach.
So, do we save salt for the crow?
Correction, “left center to right”
Guessing that his .437 BABip since June 16th is not considered relevant? That has nothing to do with his resurgence at the plate?
His -4 DRS and -11 OAA just instill tons of confidence in his future at 1B as well.
Guessing that his .437 BABip since June 16th
===========================
Why would you guess at his BABIP? These can be looked up in 5 seconds.
So what has his BABip been since June 16tb?
More importantly, why even use fabricated estimates when real stats exist?
BABip is not an accurate reflection of anything. It’s a bogus estimation created by people who don’t really understand their limits on fairly summarizing information and then suggesting that it’s a stat to the data unsavvy public..
So what has his BABip been since June 16tb?
=========================
.357, not .437.
Trollfree
More importantly, why even use fabricated estimates when real stats exist?
BABip is not an accurate reflection of anything. It’s a bogus estimation
==============================
Troll,
It is not an estimate. It is a formula.
And like every number, it is best not to use in isolation. It is simply a number to estimate what a player’s true production. If there was real money on the line, I would also include HRs/FB & EV. And there are probably a dozen other statistics one could include.
But for the sake of quick discussions, BABIP is a very useful stat.
Joe,
You just proved my point. You said it is not an estimate. It is a formula which is one form of an estimation.
Then you wrote, It is simply a number to estimate what a player’s true production. Sounds like you are saying it’s an estimate using other numbers. That’s exactly my point.
BABIP suggests past occurrences will happen in the future and that’s simply not true. If you flip a coin and it comes up tails then tails being estimated as the next result is no more accurate than heads. In the same vein, what a player did last week, last year or in his entire career isn’t an indication of what he will do in the future. You can trend BA and OBP and it too isn’t a reflection of what will happen in the future, it’s an estimation.
So to suggest an estimation is accurate is silly because you have no way of knowing than other than using hindsight and predictions don’t use hindsight they are evaluated in hindsight.
Thus, suggesting BABIP is useful should be qualified. You THINK it is useful to you but it’s no more accurate predicting the future than any other projected stat.
If you have a math background you should know this.
All formulas can be used as estimates.
– Mathematician and Actuary
Whyhayzee – Thank you. I rest my case. Modern metrics are estimations not statistics. They don’t reflect actual events they interpret them using estimators.
Thanks for adding some insurance to my argument!! 🙂
LOL! So a guy goes 30-100, and people say he is hitting .300, you’re saying that is an estimate?
Let me help you out. Here is what you want to say:
“The formulas are generally an exact science. Average & OBP are objective. 30/100 = .300.. One’s assessment of their relative values are subjective. As in the real world, is is usually best to rely on multiple numbers rather than one.
Modern metrics ARE statistics. They are based on events that have already happened. However, they can be used to predict future performance. You could easily predict a batting average for someone next year, predict their on base percentage, their slugging percentage, as well as all of the other modern metrics that seemingly grow on trees these days. All of those things can be predicted using past performance and other relevant factors.
But, getting to the true value of a player? That might just be unanswerable by merely using statistics. People call those things intangibles or in the business world, soft skills. You know it when you see it but you can’t place a number on it. That’s what makes it fun.
Also, baseball is a competitive game between pitcher and batter and subject to some degree of chance and a good degree of performance. But it’s not running a race, taking a test, etc. Again, I can predict my next 5K time or next test score, but no one’s trying to tackle me on the course or throwing tomatoes at me while I’m taking the test. At least, I hope not.
.367 according to Fangraphs. But wanted to see if either of you knew what you were taking about.
Wow. That was truly stupid Troll.
Since you obviously don’t understand and don’t want to understand baseball, just going to say goodbye here.
No reason to talk baseball with the willfully ignorant.
BaseballisLife
.367 according to Fangraphs. But wanted to see if either of you knew what you were taking about.
===========================
The .367 v .357 probably depends on the parameters. A one-day difference could mean ten points.
More importantly, glad to see that you admit you were wrong. We already have enough people in here that will say something ridiculously stupid, but not have the self-esteem to admit they made a simple mistake.
I was right. Both of you were wrong. But nice to see you being consistent.
Unless a hitting coach gets him to stop opening his hips early against LHP and swinging all arms, trying to pull every pitch, he’s a platoon player at best.
How he hasn’t tried harder to adopt a Juan Soto like approach vs LHP by staying closed and hitting the ball hard to LF/LCF is a shame.
He only hits LHP now when they make a mistake and leave the pitch middle in. Anything to the outer third of the plate Casas is only waving at while his front foot and hips are pulling open towards the 1st base side dugout.
In the end maybe he learns by watching video or watching other successful lefties on lefties (Soto/Seager ect..) but maybe he doesn’t and gets only 400PA/year.
Time and his actions will tell.
Just say you don’t watch baseball dude. Went 430 off a lefty to opposite field today lol
Was that his 2nd or 3rd HR against LHP this season?.
Did you notice where that pitch was located? A belt high 93 mph FB on the inner third. Hit it to LCF.
If you don’t crush that, you really shouldn’t be playing major league baseball.
Thanks for proving his point about Casas.
“If you don’t crush that, you really shouldn’t be playing major league baseball.”
Yet he is.. How bizarre.
I notice you don’t address the rest of my comment. Wonder why that is?
I guess your name says it all.
Oh Em Gee, A screen name zinger.
Your’s is adorable. Good job.
I was really bummed out watching the game today. Then I remembered how much of a great job Bloom and company are doing .WTF. I guess I am the hater that still be hating or a troll. Anyone have any of that koolaide you have been drinking?
Dude step back from the edge. They have a winning record in the hardest division in baseball. Hey you could be a Yankees fan and under .500
Sounds like you need xanax, not koolaid,
Is Casas good enough for ROY?
Is Casas good enough for ROY?
===========================
IMO, no. But his 2nd half stats are off the rails. I think Henderson, Volpe & Jung are all better, but you can never tell who BB writers are going to vote for.
Jung
Gunnar
Tristan
Volpe
in order
Maybe Gunnar has a chance is Orioles win division and Rangers miss playoffs, but I just don’t see Rangers not at least claiming a wild card bid
Seeing the five players, the optics go to Jung then Gunner just as you suggested but Casas improved greatly. Over time, Jung, Gunner and Casas all have all-star games in their future.
Jung is out for the season, so he likely will finish below Casas. Volpe suffers from some of the same BABIP that Casas suffered from, but is a huge talent. The NYY need to give him a 10-year contract like today.
Joe – Right now Jung is out until SEP 18. BABIP is an estimation that is no more valid than BA or OBP or any other stat as a predictor of the future.
Volpe in my opinion isn’t going to have the career that the other ROY contenders will have. His size, his skills and being in NY make him a distant contender for ROY and a future all-star type career. Jung and Henderson are hugely more talented and Casas is simply more talented than Volpe..
Like always, the future games in 2023 haven’t been played so there is no way to know if one player will completely outshine the others but the odds on favorite with Jung out is Henderson. The others are long-shots.
Jung is hurt… I believe he is out for at least 4 weeks….. he is not winning the ROY… Gunnar Henderson will win it…. Casas will stupidly lose votes to Yoshida.
@ stats guy . I guess you are right. I got a little excited in the early 21st century when the where we winning titles . I remember the 20th century waiting until next year .
That was mostly steroids so if the Stros have to give their 2017 title back then I think all those yankee titles are coming back too
As a Yankees fan, it’s so frustrating just how bad our minor league development is. Casas is the kind of guy Yankees should target (LHH with OBP and pop). Red Sox fans were so frustrated with Chaim, but there’s no way anyone can say the Red Sox don’t have a bright future.
My wife just yelled at the screen, “what a bunch of crap. That guy is the worst fielding 1B the Red Sox have ever had. He’ll be a DH before he turns 25”.
She knows her Red Sox.
Your wife sounds cool.
She is. Knows baseball and may be the biggest Red Sox fan I know. And she has sailor vocabulary when it comes to her Sox.
Baseball – Please tell me she is even more vocal about Devers the Butcher of Boston!!! Casas is light years better with far less experience.
LOL! He isn’t even the worst 1B we’ve had in the past two years. I thought Dalbec was bad, even though he could play a passable 3B, but I had to turn the TV off when Franchy played 1st.
Dick Stewart
Stuart.
@baseballislife. You guys seem depressed.
The Sox should take a page out of the Braves play book and buy out his arb years now and get a year of his free agency. Get cost control now. The Sox need to get better at doing that instead of going year to year. Offer him like 7/90 or even go 7/100 and see if he bites. Sometimes sign
Always a great idea to extend a guy that has not even played league average baseball yet.
Maybe, just maybe, they wait until he can do that for a season.
I don’t agree with all extensions, but from a philosophical POV, you want to sign a player before they get to their full value. I just posted that the NYY should sign Volpe for ten years, probably more. If they wait, like they did on Judge, it will cost you $100M more, and you won’t get the age brackets you want.
That said, all extensions should be based on the character of a player, not their stats. Some will quit early. Some will show up in the stadium at 10:00, at age 33, to get in some extra work.
Character doesn’t fill out the stat line, performance does.
Right now Casas performance is below league average and bad against LHP.
The Red Sox need to wait until he puts up above average performance because regardless of an unmeasurable character of the player, his performance is what they are paying for.
Lots of prospects have “unassailable character” and play hard but can’t perform at the major league level.
Life – Not only that, Casas has a reputation for not working hard and focusing on non-baseball things such as his nail polish and suntanning. Work ethic factors into character.
Once again, kindly explain why nail polish has anything to do with baseball. You’d surprised how many guys will use a razor instead of an electric shaver, because they think it makes them look better.
Personally, I iron my shirts, but I don’t think it detracts from my job.
Bloom did not pick up any substantial help at the trade deadline and it shows. Sale is iffy now and they needed more pitching help. All Bloom did was pick up a .143 hitter and call his team underdogs! That must have impressed the players a lot.
now dont go getting sore on the Orioles just because they managed to put a winning team on the field. I’ll be rooting for them, once the Yankees are officially eliminated.
A MANNNNN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHH
A MANNNNN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHH
A MANNNNN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHH
A MANNNNN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHH
A MANNNNN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHH
You bored, or drunk?
MLBTR: stop with these pieces. They are half-hearted attempts at statistical analysis that come off as you desperately trying to be Fangraphs because all you do is regurgitate stats. Casas is not a trade candidate and this article makes no mention of an extension; the article has no transaction bend to it, which is where you actually make novel original content. A piece like this either screams that an agent is giving you payola to juice his client’s arb numbers or that you’re trying too hard to remain relevant in the sports media landscape. It looks bad. The analysis and article as a whole are milquetoast. Stop it. It looks pathetic.
Who complains about free content? I thought the article was interesting and is the type of stuff I come here to read.
You gotta love people entitled for free stuff. My complaint was always not proofreading their work which any writer or creator should do naturally
Just because something is free, doesn’t mean it can’t withstand criticism.
Do you even know how English grammar works, Devil Rays? Since you still cling to racist nicknames as well, I’m willing to bet you have a 6th grade education.
Lmao, you’re so dumb you don’t even know the third and fourth words in your own screen name. Can only imagine how miserable your life is spending all day complaining about woke people online. Do us all a favor and off yourself.
But since you’re threatening me, and ALL these other people you want to fight on here, going offline by taking this in person, let me know where and when, you incel. I’ll be there with a bunch of trans people just to piss you off even more.
David Laurila is the best writer over at Fangraphs.
Argh. 2 busy days at work so I miss two topics full of posts, replies, arguments, and counter arguements. Just my luck!
Gods I love all of you people! Tim could create topic titled, “It is Friday in Red Sox Nation” and all of us would find something to debate.
‘Friday should be pushed back to Wednesday’ ‘Friday’s ISO isn’t what it used to be, told you that would happen’ ‘Haters hate that Friday starts with a capital F’ and the Pompom brigade would tells how Bloom is the smartest guy on the planet for signing Saturday to protect Friday in the line up.
I am serious. I effing love you people!
There is else NOTHING like Red Sox Nation on the planet, and you all make it fun to be a citizen.
You wanna throw down senor?
Lol. Ok, Stanly. First one down buys the round?
LMAOOOOO
You are in here dissing people calling people tough guys on the internet and cowards, then you MUTE people after you physically threaten them. It is the equivalent of telling someone you’ll kick their behind and then running away. Cowardly af. You’re the biggest coward on this site. Talking like “I want to ring his bell” then just running away by not allowing people to reply to you. Too much sand up in that V.
I picked Triston Casas to be the best rookie 1B. So far, I’m going with Spencer Steer but Casas is closing the difference.
Over the past 30 games, the Nats are tied for the 7th best record. How is it that you are not aware of these things?
Nice excuse Joe.
It’s not an excuse. We lost 2-3 on the road to a team that is playing well. Then we won 3-3 on the road to a team playing badly.
Y’all need to recognize when teams are playing well or playing badly. Momentum counts.
Rotflmfao. Uh, huh. Sure.
you can beat Atlanta yet lose against oakland
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It’s called variance, or randomness. Do they not teach elementary statistics anymore?
you all need to stop saying its the best division in baseball
============================
1-Add up the records,
2-Compare that to the records of the other divisions.
If the ALE has the best record, that makes them the best division.
Have they stopped teaching arithmetic?
his at-bats remind me of (healthy) nick johnson which is high praise
(Healthy) Nick Johnson is like (skinny) Kelly Clarkson.
Didn’t last long.
what might have been!
Maybe… but we’re you a fan in the 70’s -80’s-90’s— sure it doesn’t fly but 4 in my life … pretty damn good… I can be patient a while… but I will say this … I hope the curse of Brasier doesn’t take us another 86… I don’t have that much patience
I’ve been standing at the airport with his name on a sign and he’s nowhere in sight. Arrived indeed.
I don’t get it. Llovera works 2 inn. on Sat and figures to be in AAA for Houck.
Casas is unavailable today. Why not call up Dalbec for one or 2gms for depth at 1b.