The two most recent offseasons each had a batch of excellent shortstops that were available in free agency. The 2021-2022 offseason saw Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez reach the open market. That was followed by a free agent class featuring Correa again, since he opted out of his first deal after one year, along with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
Each player garnered plenty of interest and ultimately secured a guarantee above nine figures, often well above. All of the deals were among the most significant for their respective franchises and surely came with a great deal of thought and scrutiny. Deciding to spend hundreds of millions of dollars over a period of roughly a decade to one player is not something that is done flippantly. The deals still have many years remaining on them and it’s far too soon to start declaring winners and losers, but one team that must be currently thrilled with how it played this market is the Texas Rangers.
The club had been doing a lot of losing until recently. After falling to the Blue Jays in the ALDS in back-to-back years in 2015 and 2016, the Rangers entered a rebuilding period, finishing below .500 in each season after that. They seemingly got fed up with that futility and tried to press fast forward on the rebuild by spending money aggressively. That came in surprising fashion after the 2021 campaign when they nabbed two of the aforementioned star shortstops. They gave Seager $325MM over 10 years and Semien $175MM over seven, installing the latter as their everyday second baseman.
Those contracts still have a ways to go, but it’s hard to imagine them having gone much better to this point. Last year, Seager launched 33 home runs and slashed .245/.317/.455. Even with a .242 batting average on balls in play dragging him down, he still produced a wRC+ of 117, or 17% above league average. When combined with his strong shortstop defense, he was worth 4.5 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.
Here in 2023, he’s missed significant time due to a left hamstring strain and right thumb sprain but has been otherworldly when on the field. In just 78 games, he has 22 home runs and the BABIP wheel of fortune has spun him around the other way this year, with a .370 mark in that category. His .348/.411/.661 line amounts to a wRC+ of 190, the best such mark in the league among those with at least 350 plate appearances. He’s already at 4.8 fWAR despite not even playing half a season.
As for Semien, he was similarly BABIP’d last year, with just a .263 mark in that department. But his 26 home runs helped him hit .248/.304/.429 for a 107 wRC+. His defensive marks were quite strong, hardly surprising for a former shortstop at the keystone. His 11 Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average were both in the top five among second basemen. He also stole 25 bases and finished the year with a tally of 4.2 fWAR.
Here in 2023, he’s walking more, striking out less and his .296 BABIP is much closer to league average. His .282/.353/.472 line translates to a 127 wRC+. His 11 DRS trails only Andrés Giménez among second basemen while his 11 OAA is topped only by Thairo Estrada. He’s already at 5.0 fWAR this year with still about six weeks to go, with both him and Seager among the top seven positions players in the league this year in that category.
Those two players have been a huge reason why the club has now returned to relevancy, as the Rangers are 72-49 this year, with only three clubs around the majors currently sporting a better winning percentage. Simply buying an elite middle infield might not seem like an accomplishment to some, but spending big doesn’t always lead to a proportionate return on investment, as shown by the other players listed at the top of this article.
Correa had a solid campaign last year and returned to the open market. Though he had two deals ultimately scuttled by health concerns, he returned to the Twins on a six-year deal with a $200MM guarantee and vesting options that allow him to bank even more. But he’s hitting just .231/.308/.409 this year for a 98 wRC+ as his previously-elite defense has slid closer to league average. Bogaerts has just 12 home runs for the Padres and is hitting .272/.346/.400. His wRC+ of 109 shows he’s still above average but it’s well shy of his .300/.373/.507 line and 134 wRC+ in the previous five seasons. Turner is having the worst year of his career, currently sitting on a line of .250/.302/.394 and an 86 wRC+. Story had around league-average offense last year and required elbow surgery in the winter, only returning to the Red Sox in recent days. Báez hit just .238/.278/.393 for the Tigers last year and has a dreadful .221/.262/.320 line this year. Swanson is the only non-Ranger of the bunch who has been thriving after signing a mega deal.
As was already mentioned, we can’t start handing out awards and calling certain teams “winners” or “losers” at this point. These contracts range from six to 11 years in length, leaving plenty of time for things to change. But most clubs sign these lengthy free agent contracts hoping for excellent production at the beginning and usually expecting some painful years at the end. Many of these deals are off to rough starts and the respective players will need significant improvements in the years to come in order to stop them from looking like big busts.
The Rangers don’t have a perfect record in free agency and are plenty familiar with how big spending can backfire. They spent $185MM this winter to get Jacob deGrom, who made six starts before requiring Tommy John surgery and won’t be back until the second half of 2024 at the earliest. Their faith in Martín Pérez looks like a misstep, as they gave him a $19.65MM qualifying offer but have seen him post a 4.85 ERA this year and recently get bumped to the bullpen. But in terms of the shortstop market, they’ve obviously done quite well. It was surprising to see any club put down so much money that they were able to nab two of the big name free agents. The Rangers not only ponied up the dough, but seem to have made a wise decision on who to spend it on. Twice.
Seager should finish 2nd in MVP votes. He is 2nd in MLB in adjusted OPS after, even after adding 21 or so hitless plate appearances to his stats.
He’s one of the best players in the game.
The Semien deal is still worrisome, not sure how many good years they’re going to get out of him.
He’s a great player in the midst of a 6+ WAR season, leading the League in G, PA, AB and Runs. Let’s just pump the brakes a lil and enjoy his productivity and all-around game.
Ya the guys been on one hell of a 3 year heater so what if this is peak as long as the downhill isn’t too steep
Definitely will be a bad deal by the end of it, he’s already showing Eric Hosmer like production with 6 war, you know? *insert shrug GIF here*
Corey seager has done nothing but look good in a Rangers uniform? Sometimes you play with danger to win? No reward without some risk?
I was a big skeptic during semiens early A’s years. Never expected hom to be this good and he’s durable, plays everyday. Crazy that his first all star appearances were age 30 or older, credit to his work ethic
I was staunchly against what the Rangers did but this has certainly worked out to date.At some point they’ll be saddled with underwater deals for Seager and probably Semien but they propelled themselves to an actual contending club much faster than I thought was possible.
Happy that the Rangers are doing so well. One of those teams that has never won, you would like to see pull it off. Cleveland another one. Pirates alittle bit. Seattle.
Bochy was my favorite manager as a Giants fan. Miss him here. His talent is unmatched. Also a great lineup helps.
Also seeing the Yankees bomb is a cherry on top.
@JayRyder- I really hope your not one of these delusional fans, that actually think the Rangers could actually beat the Astros? Lol. You know what man? I really hope it happens, but don’t do nuttin’ stupid, and bet the house on it or anything, and just make sure they’re not cheating again! You never know? Lol.
At the start of the season, sure. Now? Who knows? Texas looks like it may take the West possibly. Head-to-head, anything could hapoen, but Eovaldi/Scherzer/Montgomery/Gray or Dunning is a very good playoff rotation, with the other starters in the bullpen. The top 4 is maybe the 3rd best in baseball offensively, with the Braves and Dodgers being the only ones obviously better at the top.
What if… Kershaw, deGrom, Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Gray/Dunning were a thing the end of 2024 (with the top 4 in the playoffs)?
Chill down. Kershaw has also considered Texas too. You are uninformed that deGrom can’t possible have season-ending surgery in April since he would be on the IL. The joke is on you.
Oh yeah the great middle investment the Yankees were supposed to have? That’s right, Trashman became so obsessed with getting a shortstop like IKF who I like, and an overpaid, and over-the-hill Josh Donaldson who we didn’t need, because he wanted to trade Gary Sanchez after tendering him a contract, and not allowing to become a free agent instead? Great job Trashman!
Can’t ya just let Rangers fans enjoy their good signings? I don’t go to a Marvel movie and complain throughout how terrible the Transformers franchise is.
I really wish that did it for me. Of course I will root for the Rangers if they play the Astros!
Lol
I wonder if Tigers fans are giving Baez the thumbs down? I heard he doesn’t appreciate that.
Just like to say I don’t like Dallas. 110 today and tomorrow with 100% humidity. Just glad tomorrow’s game is indoors but walking up to the gate will be brutal.
No one likes Dallas in the summer except the utility companies.
As a White Sox fan, I’m so glad that my team has long term payroll flexibility rather than a top notch middle infield. Can you imagine the $/WAR at the back end of those deals? How will the Rangers be competitive/middling 7 years from now given those obligations?
As a White Sox fan you just opened yourself up to a whole bunch of ridicule
The Rangers are winning now, and with a still strong farm system should continue to be a good team for years to come. The White Sox will be lucky to be winning seven years from now, with the way that team is being run.
Are you currently enjoying White Sox baseball? Rangers fans are enjoying Rangers baseball.
I am not enjoying White Sox baseball, to be honest. I wish my favorite team was competing for something other than the “long term payroll flexibility AL standings” or whatever it is that Jerry, Kenny, and Rick are trying to do.
Gotta be in it to win it. Flags fly forever, man.
Yep. Following a team that is in it to save money is no fun.
Saving $ for what, Ohtani? Not happening! A team that’s worth $7.6 billion dollars is now cutting out coupons? Gimme me a break!
“Deal is paying off” is would be accurate if deans were 4-5 years.
Semien has put up 11.3 WAR since they signed him. As of today he has put up $104 million in value for the team. Unless he gets injured tomorrow, he is going to end over 12 by the time this season is over. That means he has provided $111 million in value to the Rangers in his first two seasons there. How much is he being paid again? Is it more than $50-55 million per season?
Ha-ha-ha, another fan slavishly accepting the WAR/$$$ calculation that has no basis in free market reality. There is no “value” in paying that kind of money for any one player, as Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon have proven year after year after year playing on the SAME team. Heck, Seager and Semien “starred” on a 68-94 Rangers team last year…oh yeah, they are surely THE difference this year. The ONLY “value” a player has is what he’d be worth in a fully free market where ALL players are free agents every year, not an artificially restricted one which drives up the prices for a limited pool of star players that only the big markets can bid on, exactly as the big player agents, big stars, and big markets want it.
Story and Baez deals were going to be losers no matter what. Dudes have a hard time gitting 200. But the Rangers spending that kind of money on their middle infield can only be judged by rings. Win one in the next couple of years and you look like a genius, if you only have division championship flags to wave in 5 years than you blew it.
I’m glad you’re justkidding because no amount of spending guarantees a championship. Getting to the playoffs with a first-round bye is the best position a team can put itself in.
The Semien deal can be judged by rings, as he is a ver expensive offensive upgrade over IKF essentially. He is above average at hitting, power, and speed, but I saw him screw up so many plays one game, and Bref gave him 11 runs above average from 10 defensively. Defensive metrics seem somewhat useful (Semien is good and Grossman is bad), but I don’t trust them enough to pay 25 MM for a guy who has been only a little above average the last 2 years offensively. He sure isn’t 45 homerun guy. Now, Seager may be worth it regardless of championships since he would sell tickets and merchandise. Wouldn’t you say individual performance matters more than team performance when evaluating contracts. Patrick Corbin says hi.
The Tigers got crushed by getting Baez financially, but that’s the risk of any owner who goes to long with a G.M. Detroit’s new G.M left fans with bewilderment in keeping E rod, so he lost some goodwill with them. Is he hoping the owner bids against himself and offers more money, years, and terms to stay ?
The Rangers spent big money, but they have a excellent R.O.I. for that money. If you win one W.S at anytime during his stay it’s a big win. Detroit’s young core is starting to look pretty good of Greene, Torkelson, and Carpenter. We are hoping in Detroit they can somehow manage to get 20 80 out of Baez every year he’s here going forward. It’ll take work, but he’s not going anywhere the next four years.
Do you know why they picked Clark over Langford? I am thrilled as a Texas fan.
Clearly one of those articles largely written and planted by the MLBPA. Anyone who thinks that these deals will be worth it over the long run whether or not a championship is won is not someone I’d want running my team. If Texas wins anything during this time, it will be a by-product of many factors, and I guarantee you these deals will inhibit more winning over their tenure than they will contribute. But never mind, let’s have more headlines lauding temporary success rather than pointing out cautionary tales. If I read one more time that teams are blithely willing to accept “some pain later for pleasure today,” I think I ‘ll throw up.
Clearly one of those comments largely written and planted by MLB owners.
Have you ever noticed that many players outperform these big contracts the first few years and underperform the last few? If the end result is an overall performance roughly similar to the cost, the contract is worth it.
Are you aware top-tier players are incredible bargains their first 6-7 years in the majors? The owners shouldn’t win at both end of players’ careers. To make that argument, you’d have to an ownership plant.
Are you aware that preservation of these ridiculous deals is at the expense of the rank and file players who are also an integral part of winning ballclubs? Spare me the ire over the “poor plight” of players like Seager and Semien; the collective bargaining agreements merely preserve the hegemony of big market clubs and big star player agents who don’t give a damn about competitiveness or the welfare of an entire league or the vast amount of players who are required to support the money machine. That you or anyone else views big-time deals as anything but supporting the status quo is laughable. The big markets and big time agents are so glad fans like you exist, they know who can afford such stupidity and who can’t. They know in a true “free market”, where every player would be a free agent every year, these kinds of deals would never exist.
@Avory Do you remember the first time you found out you were a tool. For you to come on here and try to put people down and show us all just how smart you really are buddy, it just shows how low your self esteem really is. I’m so sorry man. Has to be tough. My church and I will be praying for you.
If a championship is won then the deals were worth it. Thats the point.
How does that boot taste
You should be a White Sox fan! Then you can enjoy the long term payroll flexibility year after year (while your team is stuck in the mud). Welcome to baseball purgatory!
I think getting them was a good investment. Eventually they will get old and the last years might be bad but for the next 4-5 years the outlook of the team could be really good, especially since they also have a lot of good young guys already up or coming up (jung, langford, Carter, lowe and depth pieces like duran, foscue (if not traded this off season) and Taveras so even if one of seager and semien declines early they have enough firepower in the lineup.
The big question will be pitching.they have signed a lot of older injury prone guys but they also have a lot of pitching prospects.
Unfortunately the pitching development in the minors didn’t work as well as the hitting development and a lot of their highly regarded pitching prospects have not performed or got hurt in the minors.
The hitting development in the minors seems to be very good but the big x factor will be pitching. If they can turn around the pitching development they could be a dominating team the next half decade but they really will need pitching reinforcement in the next 1-2 years.
Some of it probably will come via trade when some of the hitting surplus is traded away but they need something from the internal guys too.
Just stop it. These guys are in the early years of long-term deals on a first-place club. They are not transaction candidates. They certainly won’t be traded and it’s far too early for them to be extended. So there is no reason MLBTR should be wasting their time with garbage like this.
Yet again, another half-hearted attempt at statistical analysis that comes off as MLBTR desperately trying to be Fangraphs because all they do is regurgitate stats. No real transaction bend to the article, which is where MLBTR actually makes novel original content. The analysis and article as a whole are milquetoast. Stop it. It looks pathetic.
Womp womp womp
@But It, did you somment on the wrong article or something?? The author was in no way critical and was stating how the TRANSACTIONS(signings) of Seager and Semien have so far went quite well.
BTW milquetoast means “timid, meek, unassertive, etc…” 😉
Just wanna try and help someone when they re trying to use big words in an attempt to sound educated but they don’t know the meaning….
“Just trying to help” is one of the most pathetic things anyone can say. You look like a fool. And I CERTAINLY know the meanings of the words I’m using.
The definition of milquetoast you’re using is for a person. It can also mean bland or insipid. Lacking flavor or interest.
The article CERTAINLY is all those things, and the ones you describe. Unassertive is a great descriptor. It offers no strong point and doesn’t express it confidently.
Take a seat. You’re trying to step to me like you know more than I do under the guise of you being holier-than-thou to someone who is “attempting to sound educated.” You’re doing the EXACT same thing and failing. What a joke.
*smart, poindexter
Then a run-on sentence. I”ll play with the dolls but you still probably haven’t even mastered a rattle based on your crap English. Your mom has fresh milk for you.
Hey snowflake: there’s a mute button, you know. Might want to click it now while I’m in your mom’s bed. Your walls are thin.
Putting that oil field money to good use
What the article doesn’t say is how big of a role Semien has taken in the clubhouse…almost Beltreish from what I’ve read and heard other players comment….you can have all the talent in the world but it starts with the club house
I never expected this year to be anything special. I thought it was going to be another painful year for our rebuild. But wow. This team manages to surprise me again. Seager and Semien are critical anchors to the foundation of this team. I don’t know what will happen in the next five years, but the future looks bright.
Seager would’ve been a perfect player for the NYY. An excellent LH bat, which they badly (and still do) needed, and enough of a glove to play SS until Volpe/Peraza were ready.
Fortunately, Cashman doesn’t take my calls since I questioned his decision to go into the 2021 season with no real lefties in the lineup.
That said, it feels like MLBR is underrating his propensity for injuries. In 2-3 years, this article might not be so rosy.
Carlos Correa is perhaps the most over rated and over hyped player in MLB history. How he got that contract from the twins was highway robbery
The Rangers appear to be flipping the big middle to the rest of the AL West