3:35pm: The Red Sox have now made these moves official, recalling Abreu and placing Duran on the injured list. They also reinstated right-hander Tanner Houck from the IL and optioned lefty Chris Murphy.
10:37am: The Red Sox are planning to promote outfield prospect Wilyer Abreu for his Major League debut, as first reported by Augusto Cardenas. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe hears the same, reporting that Abreu will be called up to replace Jarren Duran, who’s headed to the injured list following this weekend’s toe injury.
Abreu, 24, was one of two prospects acquired in the trade sending catcher Christian Vazquez from Boston to Houston last summer. The Venezuelan-born outfielder has posted impressive numbers in Triple-A Worcester this season, slashing .274/.391/.539 with 22 homers, 11 doubles, a triple and eight stolen bases (in nine tries). Abreu has walked in an immense 16.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at a manageable 20.1% clip.
FanGraphs and MLB.com both currently rank Abreu 17th among Boston farmhands, while Baseball America tabs him 22nd. The 2023 season has seen a pronounced step forward in terms of power production for Abreu, despite garnering only average ratings on his power in most scouting reports. He’s done that while reducing his strikeout rate by six percentage points over last year’s levels, too, which creates some optimism that he could perhaps elevate his status over the generally projected fourth outfielder.
Abreu is regarded as a disciplined hitter at the plate who can be too selective at times. He runs well enough to handle all three outfield spots but posts impressive stolen-base totals more due to his baserunning acumen than standout raw speed. Abreu has spent more time in the corners than in center this year, but he has more than 1200 career innings in center and could certainly step in at the position for Duran.
As for the 26-year-old Duran, he suffered a toe injury when scaling the wall on a Gleyber Torres home run. He was slated to undergo an MRI to evaluate the extent of the injury, and it seems there was enough concern to at least require a 10-day absence.
The injury puts a halt to a breakout season for the former top prospect. Duran has appeared in 102 games for the Sox, slashing .295/.346/.482 with eight homers, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and 24 steals (in 26 tries). He’s dropped his strikeout rate for the third straight year, now sitting at 24.9% — still higher than average but nowhere close to the alarming 30.7% clip he posted in 2021-22. In doing so, he looks to have seized a long-term spot in the Boston outfield; even with some expected regression in his .381 average on balls in play, Duran’s plus speed, average power and penchant for making hard contact should allow him to remain an above-average offensive contributor. The Sox can control him for five more years beyond the current season.
Hopefully Duran is back after minimum stint on IL. Sox have a hard, but not impossible climb. They need everyone right now
Toe injuries always sound minor, but seemingly take players out of action for weeks and even months.
Especially for a speed guy. Hopefully it is nothing big.
Unless it’s his big toe.
This move probably puts the kibosh on any hope that Rafaela is coming up this year. He would be up today if they were going to promote him
T@Oddball
I expect him to arrive during the Sept callups
Not much reason to put that kind of pressure on him. He’s really been driving the ball down there.
Sinister Joe – Agreed, Rafaela is beginning to be more selective at the plate, but a 40% swing rate is not playable in the MLB. Think Jackie Bradley with a higher strikeout rate. Rafaela will make the MLB, but he did start the year in AA, and he has not had that many AAA at bats.
Abreu has a 16% walk rate (nearly double that of the average player). Last year he walked 114 times (think Wade Boggs), strikes out below MLB average, has a much higher OBP, equal to or greater power potential, and can play all three outfield positions.
Abreu may not acquire enough at bats this year to loose his rookie status, so next year Rafaela and Abreu could be the first pair of outfield starting rookies for the Red Sox since Jim Rice (hall of fame) and Fred Lynn (1975 Rookie of the Year and MVP).
Perhaps they will bring Raffaella up after the Houston series unless Abreu’s left-handed bat shows a power surge that would be helpful for this stretch of tough games. Abreu has been doing well with the Wooooos of late.
Anyone else watch this game and say to yourself, “why is he scaling the wall for a ball 3-4 rows deep?” It seemed extra at the time.
I love Duran! Also excited to see what we have in Wilyer. Houston was apparently high on him.
A lot of players do that, I never understood why. 3-4 rows are fine, but I’ve seen outfielders with one hand on the wall, looking like they were going jump, and the ball would be twenty rows deep.
Only thing I can think of is maybe at some point, in the minors maybe, they didn’t jump only to realize they could have caught it.
He got lambasted for not hustling after a ball last year did he not? I’d say the message was sent to him to go all out after everything. Don’t blame him at all for this.
Oh, I forgot about that! Could be
It wasn’t just “a ball” it was an inside the park GRAND SLAM
I think they brought Abreau up for a couple of reasons one he’s a left handed bat to replace Duran’s and two he will probably give a much more professional at bat he doesn’t chase has a great idea of the strike zone. Rafaela May still get a cup of coffee especially if Boston gets smashed in the next 10 games.
I’m excited to see what Abreu can do in the majors. At the beginning of this year, the Red Sox OF prospects looked bleak. Sure they signed Yoshida but reports were that his defense was below average. With Duran having a breakout season, Rafaela playing exceptional defense, Roman Anthony doing well and now Abreu having a breakout season in the minors, I can see the Red Sox OF being a position of strength going forward. I won’t be surprised if they trade Verdugo this offseason for some pitching depth. The Sox have a great pipeline of IFs who should be coming up soon or already have (Casas). If these young outfielders can make their mark in the majors, the Red Sox future looks bright. They just need to invest in more pitching talent as they do not have many promising pitchers down on the farm.
Excellent comment. I always thought the OF pipeline was weak, especially since I wasn’t a Duran fan. Now it is looking like an above-average pipeline. I was hoping they’d sign Lee from SK this off-season. Now I am not so sure.
@Dorothy. I agreed with in the spring, and I agree with you again. The young guns are looking good. I went into the season not really seeing any promise for even next year. Now i can’t wait until 2024! I haven’t been this hopeful for youth since Betts, Bogey, Bendi, and JBJ. Well, JBJ before he accidentally hit a homerun and instantly thought he was the next Papi.
It should have been ceddane Rafaela. But they don’t want to bring him up because it count asa year less to reach arbitration.
Are they really trying to get into the plsyoffs.
Has nothing to do with it.
Service time is based on total days on mlb roster, not if you played at any point during the season on it.
They chose the guy they felt best fit, given the role to be replaced.
CF is having success, yes. But is also working on his bad habit of chasing anything this side of of the pacific. He is moving forward. No need to rush his learning process when he is on fire, he will be upmwhen the rosters expand, I think.
DBH – I think Ceddane stays in AAA for the rest of their AAA season for 2 reasons
1) as you say, he needs to work on the swing and miss tendency a bit more. He’s made strides, but, theres still more to could do.
2) he needs everyday playing opportunities, not to be a bench piece at this point.
If BOS was holding a wildcard and trying to hold other teams off? Maybe they put a bit more weight on him as a bench piece.
But let’s be honest, it’s been 5 more games, and, they still trail TOR by 3. What’s worse, they trail SEA by 4, and, the tiebreakers.go against BOS.
Head-to-head is tied, and, SEA is +4 better in the AL west than BOS is in the AL east for the second level intradivision tiebreaker. As it sits, BOS needs to win 5 more than SEA over the next 37 to overtake them, a tie wont do it (as of now.) Additionally in how well SEA is playing of late, and, it’s likely too tall a hill to climb.
I agree, GA. They would need to sweep the Astro’s from today on. They don’t need to catch Seattle or Toronto if they knock Houston out. Again, almost impossible, agreed. But… lol
Naturally, Cora wasn’t sending Llovera to Worcester as he should have done. But I’m anxious to see how Abreu looks. He seems like he could be a solid piece of the puzzle.
So Abreu is part of the Vazquez dumping (which was part of the bigger “Get rid of DD’s guys” dumping). When fans of Bloom talk about an improved farm system and they are not referencing the draft choices he made because any GM would have gotten those choices, this DEAL becomes an excellent example of whether Bloom added, subtracted or didn’t change the quality of the farm system.
Abreu – Let’s put some criteria on him for evaluation. When you trade a quality asset like Vazquez so you can play a guy like McGuire you are down grading your MLB team in hopes of improving the farm system and the MLB team eventually.
Can Abreu do that?
1 – Will Abreu beat out Yoshida, Duran or Verdugo for a useful spot in the outfield in 2024 or 2025?
2 – Will Abreu hit MLB pitching so his average is .250 or greater or his OBP is .330 or greater?
3 – WIll his OPS+ for his MLB career be 100 or above?
If this player doesn’t start in the future, doesn’t have an OPS+ of 100 or better and doesn’t provide significant depth as a back-up at the MLB level was the farm system improved, left comparable or downgraded?
Bloom fans see a trade and hope for the best in the future. Bloom detractors ask the questions above to determine if the deal ACTUALLY helped the organization.
Everyone has an opinion so answer the questions above and define the trade for him as a win, loss or tie.
In my opinion, based on the loss of a key clubhouse guy, a leader of the pitching staff and a 109 OPS+ in 2022 this player would need to break into the starting line-up to conclude this was a good deal for Boston. If he never becomes a regular fourth outfielder in the future then it’s a bad deal and if he does become a fourth outfielder for depth then I’d call it a draw because we probably had other OFers with as good or maybe better chances of contributing that might now be in another organization!!
More depth in the farm system is NOT an improvement if the depth doesn’t add value eventually to the MLB team. It’s just a game of changing faces and declaring victory even though it’s not a victory for the organization. That’s the Bloom Way!!!
Great job by Llovera against the Astros. Nice move, Alex. Keep your boy and send down a far better pitcher.
Ya nice error lol
There needs to be serious thought to the Red Sox defense this off-season.
The reality is the left side of the defense is manned by DH’s. Those guys are costing games defensively. I don’t know what you do one of those guys has to play a position defensively and there both really bad. The problem is one of them you are going to pay 30 million a year to starting next year and the other was your splashy signing this last offseason. I just don’t see a way you can be a truly elite team with those guys butchering it so bad defensively on the left side.
It is time to move Devers to DH. Instead of thinking that he’d be getting 30 mils to play DH, think of as 15 mil to DH and another 15mil NOT to play 3rd!
DBH – OUTSTANDING!!! The albatross contract is already around the neck of all future GMs so unless some foolish team is will to pay over $30MM for a DH Boston will be stuck with him for a decade or DFAing him after about 5 or 6 years and eating the money.
Trollfree
Goodness, give an interruption!!!
To name 26- summer player by an albatross that stably proposes 130 Wrc+ every year.
Have a drink pills from the silliness
@Trollfree. I honestly have no problem paying Dever 30 a year. I support saving big money for home grown talent. I think players playing for 1 organization for an entire career is a good thing, for play e rs, fans, and mlb in general.
Devers is going to give us 30+ homers and 100+ RBI for the next decade. I am good with that.
DBH – I have a problem with it, and I’ll tell you what it is:
Mookie is getting paid $25M this year and $30M each of the next 4 years.
Now compare Mookie’s all-around stellar production and elite multi-position glove to Devers, who is strictly a good hitter and nothing more.
I think there will be a few not-so-nice chants directed at Bloom and Henry this weekend, and rightfully so!!!!
Bogie – This is the problem you create on this site. Bruin1012 makes a great comment that leads to another great comment by DBH and then I respond applauding both comments and you come along and write a comment that is neither proper English nor providing any context to your thought.
You throw in a 130 Wrc+ that you can’t explain because it’s an estimation not a fact and here is the formula that is supposed to mean something to baseball fans:
wRC+ = (wRAA/P A) + (LgR/P A) + (LgR/P A – (Park Factor * LgR/P A))
divided by
(AL or NL wRC/P A excluding Pitchers)
MULTIPLIED BY 100!!! hahaha
Crystal clear and meaningful to a guy who can’t write accurately in English.
Want me to actually translate this so you can understand what it means?
Its an estimation of player value based on many inaccurate assumptions.
Bad assumptions include:
1 – The estimate that attributes how many runs a player is worth to his team
2 – Park normalization
3 – Weighted on Base Average
4 – Weighted on Base Average Scale
5 – Who to exclude in the calculation (only pitchers chosen)
An individual or a company makes all these assumptions and they are guesses not facts. The actual number would change if any of the assumptions were reviewed by another party who has different insights into what is happening in baseball that year.
Any time you weight numbers you build in assumptions which turns a fact into an estimation.
So Devers can have 130 wRC not Wrc every year and it might be calculated differently each year as the metrics people fine tune their formulas and estimates. Tell me, Is that meaningful?
Nope it’s just an estimate after the fact.
The irony of using fake stats like wRC is that real numbers like BA, OBP, SLG all exist as true facts. So if you are suggesting Devers will have a OBP of .350 every year or a SLG of .500 every year then we could track it easily. As of now, wRC is an evolving estimate and tracking something that might vary going forward makes it seem like you are trying to hit a moving target!
OPS+, wRC+ and many other estimates are used frequently by people who don’t comprehend what they are – GROSS ESTIMATES. They are not facts like batting average or on base percentage but it is cool for the unknolwedgeable fan to throw them about as if they know what they are talking about.
How about using simple concepts? Will Devers average the following for the next 10 years:(2024 thru 2033)
100 Runs scored
100 RBIs
35 HRs
.280 or better BA
.350 or better OBP
.500 or better SLG
Those numbers can justify $31MM per year but he would also have to field at a league average level to not subtract money for his inabilities with the glove.
Devers won’t match those numbers until 2033!! He’ll be lucky to make those numbers until 2030 when he is 33 years old!!
FYI….
Career Numbers for Devers for years 2017 to 2022 (6 year career)
R – 34, 59, 129, 32, 101 and 84
RBI – 30, 66, 115, 43, 113, 88 and 88
HR – 10, 21, 32, 11, 38 and 27
BA – .284, .240, 311, .263, 279 and .295
OBP – .338, .298, 361, .310, .352 and .358
SLG – .482, 433, .555, .483, .538 and .521
So far in his career he’s met the threshold for earning $31MM per year as follows:
Runs Scored – 2 of 6 years
RBIs – 2 of 6 years
HRs – 1 of 6 years
BA – 3 of 6 years
OBP – 3 of 6 years
SLG – 3 of 6 years
Since 2020 only consisted of 60 games the above cumulative numbers should be based on 5 years but the BA, OBP and SLG stay at 6.
So far in 2023 with roughly 40 games left (1/4 of season) Devers has
R – 72 (projects to 96) needs 28 Runs to meet the criterion so it’s possible
RBI – 88 (projects to around 120( needs 12 RBIs – should exceed criterion
HR – 29 (projects to around 40) needs 6 – should exceed criterion
BA – .272 (needs to raise average 8 points to meet criterion)
OBP – .345 (needs to raise OBP by 15 points to meet criterion)
SLG – .519 (currently above criterion needs to stay above)
So here is the good news. Boston’s OVERPAY starts in 2024 so the criteria I presented doesn’t need to be met in 2023. Devers is only costing Boston $17.5 MM versus the CAP in 2023. That is a fair price for him even if you subtract money for his horrific defense!!! (16 errors counted and at least 32 misplays not counted as errors!!)
The contract should have been 6 years at $25MM totaling $150MM not 10 years for $31 MM per year. MASSIVE, MASSIVE albatross contract. It will make Bogaerts look like a good one in SD!!
Trollfree
Bla bla bla bla …..
R.Devers
2021 – 134Wrc+
2022 – 141Wrc+
2023 – 130Wrc+
You name a player by albatross, that the last three years proposes numbers on 30 percents higher than middle player.
You can’t be so salt.
@@ Fever, you are Linda making my point. I would have gladly paid Betts, and Devers, and Bogey (not 400 mils Bogey, but 300 mils Bogey).
The biggest difference in these rates is when they went to FA. Like I said, bro. Save the big money for home grown talent.
@at Troll, you may end up being right. My point of view is coming from the near hyper inflation in contracts we are seeing. 50mils for Otani still on the table with an effing TJ surgery on the horizon. Heck, 20 mils may be league min I. 5 years lol
Where the heck did “linda” come from???? I didn’t type that
DBH – I completely agree with you! Mookie basically replaced Ortiz as the face of the franchise, a New England icon that should have spent his entire career in Boston just like Larry Bird and Bill Russell and Tom Brady (I know he left, but not until his 40’s).
I get the Sox felt they had no choice but to sign Devers after Mookie and Xander were forced out, but it never should have come to that. Sox were cheap in not extending a counteroffer to Mookie, and as it turns out they are paying almost as much for a player who is inferior to Mookie. It’s just frustrating. Mookie is a revenue generating machine, something Devers is not. People come to watch Mookie not only hit, but play the field and run the bases. Nobody comes to watch Devers play 3B and run the bases, except for the few people involved in making instructional videos on what NOT to do when playing the field and running the bases.
DBH – If I was really Linda Pizzuti, trust me I’d be doing a lot better things with my time than posting on a baseball board. LOL!!!
I’m pretty sure you meant to type “kinda” ;O)
There needs to be serious thought to the Red Sox defense this off-season.
==========================
Yup, it is not good. But the alignment makes it difficult to change much right now. My guess is that Ceddanne forces Duran to LF, which forces Yoshida to DH. And Mayer forces Story back to 2nd. It won’t make us good, but it will make us better.
In 2024 everyone is back except Duvall , Paxton and maybe Turner if they don’t work out his option. So unless they can make some creative trades the “D’ will be the problem. They will need to sign Paxton or another solid SP. Urias is a possible non-tender. Duvall, Kluber & Mondesi free up about 19MM.
Joe – For once I agree with you, the team was very poorly constructed by Bloom with no consideration for fundamentals such as defense and baserunning.
By acknowledging Bloom’s poor judgement and Cora’s awful managing, you are making great strides. I am very happy to see that my friend.
i can’t remember a team defense this bad. devers and yoshida are killing you guys in the field
dasit – Haven’t seen Casas play first base, have you?
A could of points here:
1) Trevor Story is still an above average SS, so if Mayer takes another full season to develop, the Sox are good @ SS so long as Story can remain healthy in 2024.
2) Raffy will eventually be moved off of 3B, but it won’t be in 2024. Playing next to Story will be helpful for Raffy since Story can get to balls in the gap that their former SS’s couldn’t reach. He will call Raffy off and make these tough plays rather than having Raffy try to extend his range and throw on the run, resulting in an error.
3) if Rafaela can play a full season in 2024, it will improve their defensive ratings a lot. Casas will get better at 1st base (he was an adequate 3B, just didn’t have a lot of range). The key position for next year will be 2B. If they can find someone to play slightly above average D at the keystone can hit over 100 OPS, this team has a real chance to improve its team DEF significantly and it’s overall play.
4) The Red Sox need to add at least 2 legitimate starting pitchers this offseason. If they are going to spend money in free agency, it has to be on starting pitchers. Both Martin & Jansen are signed through 2024 and they already have some young pieces in the bullpen who are doing well, so while they may add a reliever or two, the bulk of their spending has to be on starting pitching.
5) DH/Bench – Even if Rafaela makes the team
And Abreu makes the team as a 4th OF, I still think it’s important for Boston to re-sign one of Justin Turner or Adam Duvall for next season. My preference would be JT but he’ll be 39 next season and may be looking for a 2+ year deal. That could be too much, but Duvall should take another 1 year deal at a reasonable price.
The bottom line is this. If Boston can significantly improve its pitching, they have a real shot of winning 90-96 games next season. That will get them in the playoffs for sure and possibly a division title. I’d like to see Bloom get one more season (2024) to complete his ‘rebuild’. There is a lot of positive momentum with this team right now, even if they miss the playoffs this season.
Dorothy_Mantooth
Agree with you, good plan.
I would exchange of Duran for SP while he has a value maybe would fasten on the transaction of Dalbec, some prospect from top -10 and lottery ticket.
Would do suggestion of Verdugo – 3/$12m or 4/$12m with a refuse after 3th year.
2024:
Yoshi/Abreu LF Rafaela CF Verdugo RF