7:18 PM: The Padres have officially selected Gamel’s contract from Triple-A El Paso. Choi has been placed on the 10-day IL, retroactive to August 12, while Carlton has been moved to the 60-day IL. Carlton has been out with right elbow inflammation since July 1, making him eligible to return on August 30.
6:28 PM: The Padres are selecting outfielder Ben Gamel onto the 40-man roster, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). First baseman Ji Man Choi is headed to the 10-day injured list with a left rib strain. The Friars will also need to a make a 40-man roster move, though reliever Drew Carlton stands out as a speculative candidate for a move to the 60-day injured list.
Gamel has spent the entire season in Triple-A. The veteran signed a minor league pact with the Rays and hit .276/.402/.463 in 59 games for their top affiliate. Tampa Bay couldn’t find room in the MLB outfield and dealt him to the Padres last month. Gamel has continued where he left off, mashing at a .314/.402/.600 clip through 18 games with the Friars’ highest affiliate in El Paso.
The combined .286/.402/.490 showing across 332 plate appearances earns Gamel another crack at the big league level. It’ll be his eighth season in the majors overall. The left-handed hitter owns a .253/.333/.385 career line, including a .254/.336/.391 showing versus righty pitching. Gamel had an above-average .252/.342/.409 slash when holding the platoon advantage with the Pirates last season.
Mostly limited to the corner outfield, Gamel won’t bring much defensive flexibility. He’s a decent bet to perform reasonably well at the dish, though, potentially compensating for the loss of another left-handed bat. Acquired alongside Rich Hill at the deadline, Choi has walked five times but has yet to collect a hit in seven games as a Padre. The Friars have mostly used him as a lefty bench bat — offseason signee Matt Carpenter has remarkably gone since July 24 without getting into a game thanks to a .166/.296/.302 line — so Gamel could take Choi’s role off the bench.
Meh with a splash of I guess…
When the under performing San Diego Padres finally finish sinking, they will make the massive sell offs of the Mets and Cardinals look like child’s play. Most likely this upcoming off season.
I dont think that’s true. They will move a couple of guys
The Padres will add this offseason. In FA and trades.
2 starting pitchers after Snell and Lugo leave. Possibly including Yamamoto. Padres will definitely make an offer to Snell, but I think he will get a huge deal. They will also be in on Ohtani even though I don’t think they get him.
Wacha will opt in because of all the time missed. He cannot get more than a $7.5 million AAV in FA because of injury concerns..
2 solid relievers. After Hader leaves in FA, Suarez will be the closer. This season he is allowing a .167 BAA. .522 OPS against. He is walking less batters than last season. GB% is up. Exit velocity and HH% are right there with the best in the league. Take out the one appearance where Bomel left him in their to surrender 5 runs and he has given up 2 runs in 9 appearances.
A corner OF with some pop. Most likely in trade. Possibly a CF if they can sign Jung Hoo Lee out of Korea. Don’t count the Padres out on Bellinger. Grisham will be moved.
A DH/1B. The Padres blackhole. Maybe they just run Campusano and Sanchez out at DH every game they are not playing. Sanchez has said that he wants to stay a Padre after the season. I think he will.
Soto will be extended. $500 mm over 15 years? Something very, very long and less AAV than anyone expected.
For those saying the Padres need to cut payroll because they lost their TV deal, I have news for you. They are now seen on every channel they used to be and they added one in Hawaii. They are now available to 2.2 million more people than before and their TV earnings without MLB.tv are “on par” with what they were getting from DSG according to Greupner. On top of that the Padres have 285,000 people subscribing to the single team MLB.TV package at 19.99 per month. They get 80% of that money. That is about $4.6 million per month. If that holds steady into next season, and there is no reason to think it won’t, the Padres stand to gain $27 million just from those packages. The only caveat is that its new and MLB only said that the Padres would get 80% of that money this season. They may lower that percentage in 2024 and beyond. Either way the Padres are doing just fine on TV money. Their revenue has not dropped at all.
I like Lee, but I don’t think he will be a material upgrade over Grisham, or an upgrade at all.
And too much faith in Suarez.. You’re projecting off of 10 IPs.
I cannot see Lee hitting worse than Grisham has
Judging Suarez off 55 IP over 2 seasons. This season has just been a continuation of what we saw last season.
For his entire career, Grisham has averaged 3.6 bWAR/650 PAs, and that number looks pretty consistent. I like Lee for the RS (assuming a Verdugo trade), but even a 3.0 is a stretch for Lee.
Grisham had a 2.6 WAR last season and is not going to get that high this season. His career high is 3.3 in 2021. His exceptional defense has made him a roughly leave average CF for the Padres. He will get a raise in arbitration to over $5 million for 2024. Will that be too much for the Padres when they can just move Tatis to CF and get comparable defense?
People said the same thing about Kim. Lee is a better contact hitter and plays good defense. 3.0 WAR would be an improvement over Grisham who is looking at 2.1 or 2.2 this season.
Zero chance
Hahahahaha. Thanks for the good laugh. Always love reading comments from people that think they somehow are more in tune with what a team is going to do than the owner is.
Padres owner Peter Seidler said point blank that the Padres will not be selling this offseason. That they will be looking to add to the core they have.
But you know better than he does so obviously they will be holding a fire sale.
Got it…lmao.
“Padres owner Peter Seidler”…And owners never say one thing and do another, right?…By the way, I’ve got a bridge for sale if you’re interested.
And owners never tell the truth and do what they have been doing for 2 years and say they are going to do, right?
Wtf is wrong with you?
I bet you the owner didn’t think the team would be below .500, lose their tv deal, all while having the 3rd highest payroll in baseball and be out of contention the second week of Aug, yet here we are.
They are making MORE money and being seen by more fans than when they were broadcast by DSG.
They are out of contention? Silly me, I didn’t realize they were mathematically out of it already.
Pay attention.
“Making more money”…My bet is they are LOSING MONEY with that bloated payroll. It’s not sustainable over the medium or long term.The Padres are essentially using the same top-heavy, failed baseball formula of the Los Angeles Angels. Add 3 or 4 highly paid superstars and then fill in the cracks, with guys like Ben Gamel, who was just added to the roster today.
Their CEO said PUBLICLY that they were not losing money, but again YOU know more than he does about the team.
Did you READ the article? Gamel has been in the minors all season and was called up because of an injury.
Its astounding how incomprehensibly illogical all your comments are.
They rely on the world being the exact opposite of what people do and say.
See my post above. The Padres are making more on TV than before and are making money hand over fist with Petco packed every night.
Seidler is all in He will be adding to the team this offseason.
Pads Fans and BaseballisLife are the same guy on 2 different accounts.
How do you sell off someone with a long term contract?
Who wants Machado when you have to pay him $350 million over 11 years?
Who wants Boegarts when you have to pay $280 million over 11 years?
The same for Tatis, Darvish, and Cronenworth?
Preller has damaged this franchise for a long time.
Short-term thinking. Preller is looking only at today’s problem, presumably with Seidler’s blessing. Once you’ve said ‘yes’ too many times, it won’t sense to say ‘no’.
Absolutely with Seidler’s blessing. You don’t sign players to those kinds of contracts without the owner’s direct involvement. Expect that type of signings to continue.
“How do you sell off”…If Robinson Cano & Giancarlo Stanton can be traded, anyone can be traded. It’s just a matter of how much $$ needs to be included to facilitate the trade. I believe the only untradeable contract they have is Bogey. You’d have to include 100 million+ to trade him.
I doubt it. They are at the point of no return. If anything, they need to add.
Dude just give it a rest. If I had to bet money on it, I wouldn’t bet on them selling. They most likely aren’t. It’s a weird hill you’re choosing to die on. Give it a rest.
And yes Stanton and Cano got moved with huge contracts but it took a while for those trades to happen and they were from two different teams.
The Padres aren’t going to trade multiple massive contracts and there’s no reason to think otherwise.
Only real possible trade candidates this off season are Kim and Soto. And even then that’s not a guarantee.
Kim has the most value of anyone on the team given his offense defense and contract. He’d fetch a pretty good return for a team lookin for a long term answer at ss. Miami Marlins line up nicely. Padres need SP Marlins could put Kim at ss. Not a given they trade him cause Padres/Dodgers play in Korea next year.
Soto could be moved to restock the farm and spend his 30 mill arb salary elsewhere- rotation, pen stick out.
If anything Padres will be active in FA market
Darvish Musgrove Wacha sit atop the depth chart. Padres probably pursue some sp depth.
They also pursue some rp depth
They also probably pursue some catching depth but Sanchez coming back isn’t the worst thing. But Garver Gomes could also be upgrades at the position.
Other than that the roster stays pretty much in tact.
Machado Bogaerts Cronenworth Tatis Jr Grisham
Kim isn’t a long term answer at SS he’d be a one year rental for 2024 (no, he is not arb eligible after 2024, any site or commenter that says he is is lying).
If Preller cared about “restocking the farm” Soto wouldn’t have been traded for at all. No reason to trade him unless they get back Abrams, Gore and Wood.
Padres are playing in the Korea Series to start next season. They won’t be trading Kim.
Ha Seong Kim is one of the most popular players in San Diego. If I had to bet on it, I would say he gets extended this offseason.
The other player that the Padres will be going all in on is a 24 year old with a 900+ OPS and 153 OPS+.
As of today the Padres 2024 starting rotation is thin. Musgrove, Darvish, plus Avila and maybe Morejon? Probably Wacha. That needs help. At least 2 starters.
The Padres won’t pick up Wacha’s $16 million team option, but because he has missed so much time to injury consistently over the past few season and the glut of good starting pitching this offseason, he is unlikely to get a deal for more than the $18.5 million he is guaranteed over the next 3 seasons and he can always opt out after next season if he stays healthy. Maybe the Padres re-write the deal to give him a signing bonus and a 4th guaranteed season.
Snell is a FA and Lugo has pitched well enough as a starter that he will get more than the $7.5 million he is guaranteed under his current deal.
Snell is near the top of the list of FA starters, so its unlikely the Padres outbid every team for him. I think he is looking for and will get $200 million in this next deal.
I seriously doubt that Martinez will opt out and I know the Padres are not exercising their $16 million team option.
Suarez has been very good outside of one game against the Dodgers. The Padres will slide him into the closers role as we all expected when they signed him.
With $42.2 million coming off the books and increased revenue in 2023, the Padres will have money to spend.
They will need starters, a DH/1B, a RF or CF, and a couple pieces for the pen. If he continues to play like he has for them this season, signing Sanchez to a 2-3 year deal is almost a given. He says he absolutely loves it here and this is the best he has played since his first years in pinstripes.
I see the Padres being serious suitors for Yamamoto, Urias, and Gray. The probably get one. Preller has long praised Gray’s game and tried to trade for him in 2017.
I also see them being heavily in on Lee from Korea. Kim and Lee are friends and Kim said Lee was a better hitter than he is. That is almost too good of a fit.
They will make a huge bid for Ohtani, but I doubt he will be a Padres in 2024.
Fire AJ Preller. Time for someone with a clue what they are doing
Playoffs 2 of the last 3 seasons. 4th ranked farm system. Packed houses every night, the Padres lead baseball in % of capacity.
I am pretty sure those are indications HE knows what he is sound.
Read your posts. Pretty sure you don’t know what you are talking about 90+% of the time.
“Playoffs 2 of last 3 seasons”…So the Pads have made the playoffs 3x in about the last 30+ yrs, one of which was a 60 game season. Talk about a low bar.. I agree the crowds are strong in S.D, but will fans continue to pay some of the HIGHEST ticket prices in MLB for a sub .500 team?
It’s laughable to call the Padres’ farm system a top 4. At best they’re 11th on a couple of the fringier sites, Bleacher Report the better of the 2. Keith Law had them 29th last Feb., though they did improve with the draft. Consensus has them as a mid-tier system, 15-18. I’m guessing someone forgot the haul of prospects that were traded away for Soto.
The Padres have made the playoffs 6 times since 1996. 7 times since entering the majors in 1969. That is unimpressive, but please be more accurate.
Why are the Padres keeping Matt Carpenter?
He is making $6.5mm this year, and has a player option for $5.5 for next year.
I suspect that Preller just doesn’t want to admit that this contract was a mistake.
truthlemonade, Agree. That was a total headscratcher. Carpenter had one productive, small sample stretch last year, but he hadn’t been good since 2018. Really dumb to sign a guy based on the 128 ABs in 2022, when he had an 82 OPS+ on the 763 ABs prior to that.
Truth – I may not have the insight into Preller’s thinking but I’ve suggested over the past few weeks the following: little to no AB’s for the rest of the year, then tell him it will be the same thing in 2024. Now, does Carp exercise the option or does he look for a place to actually play – even if less guaranteed money? Remember, this is a guy that a couple mil isn’t the end of the world. No longer being able to play – that is the end.
I also preface this thought with the idea that #26 on the roster doesn’t play very much anyway. My theory.
The Padres have been in the playoffs twice in 4 years since Seidler took over. That is impressive. Please try to keep up with what is happening in recent history. No reason to be stuck in the past.
Jean Matrac: Carpenter had some good years with the Cards, then totally lost it. He caught lightening in a bottle last season thanks mostly to the short rf in Yankee stadium. In another ball park with different dimensions he continued his 2020 downward trend.
Longtimecoming,
“…#26 on the roster doesn’t play very much anyway.”
Agree. But then you don’t give that spot to a guy making $6,5M.
Interesting theory!
If Carpenter is told, “You will hardly play next year,” he has 3 basic options.
A) Retire, which really might be the most honorable option.
B) Pick up his player option and ride the bench.
C) Decline his player option, and look for another opportunity elsewhere.
If he goes with C, I really think he will have a hard time finding another contract. Perhaps going with B is his best option. I would think that if SD has to pay him anyway, they would just release him, and then he would be in the C position anyway, but with $5.5mm
avenger65, True. Carpenter did hit well on the road last season but still only half as well as he did in Yankee Stadium,
Guys do revive their careers, whether it’s finally getting healthy, or maybe retooling their swing, or whatever. But, I would have wanted to see more data. I just wouldn’t have trusted that revival was real based on only 128 ABs.
I said nothing about the 6.5 mil for 2023. My comment was addressed to avoiding paying him 5.5 mil for 2024.
The 2023 money was because he wasn’t SUPPOSED to be #26 but unfortunately, he is.
I agree. If he chooses B then they have no choice but let him come to ST and see what happens then either release or play him (if he earns the spot).
I’m saying he at least tries to find a job elsewhere. Maybe a Cruz type deal pops up. League minimum sort.
He won’t retire and walk away from the game AND 5.5 mil.
Yes, you are suggesting that SD wants to discourage Carpenter from picking up his 2024 player option.
If I were Carpenter, I would probably pick up the option anyway. I don’t think SD will really carry him in 2024 without using him. They will either release him or play him. If they release him in 2024, he gets to keep the $5.5mm, and then look for another opportunity elsewhere, or retire.
Most likely but then we can save about 1 mil for team that picks him up – if any.
Really though all of this is peanuts for SD payroll!
Longtimecoming, Yeah you’re right. The $6.5M figure was not right. But then again, you don’t pay a guy $5.5M to not play much either.
Jean you are missing the point and I’m not arguing with you and wish you wouldn’t try arguing with me. I don’t disagree with your point – although it is based 100% on hindsight which most GM’s don’t have – they are stuck with 2023 no matter what. My comment is solely based on a potential method to avoid 2024 salary.
Long, Sorry, i have no intent to argue. I also agree with you, just splitting hairs over the finer points, and exchanging opinions.
My point was that it isn’t all hindsight when there were plenty of questions about Carpenter. And it isn’t entirely hindsight when I questioned the Carpenter signing at the time..
The original question was: “Why are the Padres keeping Carpenter?”
And I agreed with that. It just sounded like you were trying to mitigate the mistake by mentioning him not playing much. Really, I don’t wish to argue. I just wanted to agree, and question why Preller signed him in the first place.
Carpenter probably feels pretty awkward in the clubhouse.
I wonder what would happen if he was constantly asking the hitting coach for help. Would the HC tell him, “Sorry dude, I have to spend my time with the guys who actually play”?
Padres farm system is #4 on MLB.com and #10 on Baseball America. None of the other major scouting organizations put out post trade deadline rankings so we will have to wait on them. Although Keith Law at the Athletic did do a post draft update and had them 12th.
The consensus is that the Padres have two players in the top 10 prospects overall, Salas #5 and Merrill #9, and regardless of how many others are in the top 100, that alone makes their system one of the best in baseball. Depending on whether you like MLB, BA, or The Athletic, they have from 5 to 7 in the top 100.
But keep on looking at preseason models.
Why the Padres have kept Carpenter while not even giving him pinch hitting opportunities is confusing. He hasn’t touched a bat since July 24th.
Only reason I can think of that he still is on the bench is the mustache.
Pick up his option and be cut in ST.
The stache has to count for something.
How about a meaningful discussion about why they collapsed. Manager?….over assessment of talent… disenchantment…. Bad karma….how does it change next year?
Marooned – fair question and really from any Padres fan, player, executive or sportswriter no one seems to have any freakin idea how to explain the why of it.
The team was built to prosper on the bats of 4 players that are well below their career numbers. Yes, a few other fringe players have underperformed but really, the top 4 were supposed to compensate for those weak spots at C and CF. They haven’t done so.
They are playing the Orioles today. Take a peak at how weirdly similar the numbers are for each of those teams in major offense and pitching categories – Padres are leading in most of them!
The records are nothing similar. It boils down to how absolutely horrid the Padres are in extra inning games 0-10; 1 run games and 2 run games – don’t have the numbers handy but something like 6-25 in that ballpark.
Look at blowout wins (last night). Padres have scored 0,1, or 2 runs and lose almost every game after a blowout win.
Why – who knows and a great question.
Marooned, Lots of reasons and a few excuses. Lets start with Injuries and the suspension.
Musgrove missing the start of the season and his current injury.
Machado HBP injury
Bogaerts wrist.
Nola getting hit in the face with a pitch
Campusano missing most of the season
Suarez missing most of the season
Pomeranz never returning from his injury in 2022
Morejon injuries
Tatis missing 3 weeks to start the season
Total collapses by Nola, Cruz, Carpenter. DH has a 71 OPS+ this season. Unacceptable. Pinch hitters are hitting .104 with a .432 OPS.
Poor play by middle relievers that pitched well last season.
Lack of depth in the bullpen.
Poor hitting by Cronenworth and Grisham.
No depth in the lineup after the starting 8.
A lack of hitting with RISP. Team wide its .233
Some bad luck. They are 6-19 in one run games and have not won a single extra inning game, 0 for 10.
They are abysmal on the road but a winning team at home. Not sure how to explain that one.
Bomel has left several relievers in far too long and refused to bring in Hader for a single important out in the 8th. That has lost the team more than a few games.
And some of it to me is just a lack of heart. Soto and Machado have mentioned that one saying some of the players have quit on them in games.
No one seems to have a complete grasp on it. But they are not on pace to win anywhere near the 90 games they were expected to win before the season started.
Lots of excuses and a few reasons. I think your 2nd to last paragraph is the biggest reason.
Why reply to yourself and refer to your other account as “you” BaseballisLife?
They stumbled into the playoffs both times. The farm system is ranked 23 before the season started.
Sure, the stadium is packed because everyone believes that winning is just around the corner. But at some point, the fans will give up if the Padres don’t start winning. Preller is in trouble.
You don’t stumble into the NLCS and both seasons they won a series.
Anything else you would like to be wrong about?
The stadium is packed because they’re the only pro team in the city. Be nice if they had an NHL team, though.
Padres came into the playoffs both seasons and won a series and went all the way to the NLCS in 2022. That is playing good baseball. My definition of stumbling must be different than yours.
The farm system is ranked 10th or higher on BA #10 and MLB #4 in their post trade deadline updates. Take your pick. You can say lots of bad things about Preller, but no one can say he can’t scout and sign great players.
The stadium is packed because the team WON last season and there are a large number of very exciting players on the roster.
It will continue to be packed next season for several reasons. One is that they sold out season tickets this season and have 15k people on a waiting list. Another is they are the only game in town unless you count the new MLS team. Another is that Seidler will one again go all in on players this offseason and ADD to a team that has a core that includes Soto, Tatis, Machado, Boegarts, Kim, Cronenworth, Darvish, and Musgrove. Those are some exceptionally big stars.
There are few GM’s that are as certain to keep their jobs for 2024 as Preller. IF the team misses the playoffs in 2024 that might change things for him, but not this offseason.
We have an MLS team now.
Would love to see hockey here but what team would be relocating? Coyotes? Where would they play? The Sports Arena is not big enough to hold an NHL team and the taxpayers won’t vote to fund a new arena.
Thought they already were doing something with the Sports Arena, no?
nbcsandiego.com/news/local/midway-rising-project-o…
That’s a little small for an NHL arena isn’t it?
That is being planned, but it hasn’t started yet, has it?
In the articles about it in the SDUT they said the proposed arena was being built to draw larger concerts, but would be too small to meet the NHL or NBA’s minimum capacity for new arenas.
I don’t consider MLS a major sport. Do you?
4th ranked farm system? What is this? 2019?
Pay attention. Mlb.com. Go read the updated prospect rankings. Padres have #5 and #9 overall prospects in the game and their system is deep.
Anything else you need to learn today.
mlb.com/news/top-100-prospects-updated-2023-midsea…
Oh thank goodness you provided me with something I already read. I thought you had some inside info that the rest of us mere mortals weren’t aware of.
Since you’re in such a charitable mood, can you do me a solid and point out where in that little link of yours it says that the Padres farm system is ranked #4 overall? I just can’t seem to find it, but then again, I have a hard time paying attention. Or any part really where it starts ranking systems by teams.
Also, since you obivously know ball (as your name suggests), can you please explain what you mean when you subjectively say “their farm system is deep?” I just want to make sure I’m learning as much as possible today. Thanks pal!
BaseballisLife, You’re confusing points for the number of top 100 prospects with the farm system rankings, Those are two different things, since teams can have some top prospects as part of an otherwise thin farm. Unlike the updated top 100 prospects, the updated farm system rankings themselves have not been released yet.
The Padres are the biggest disappointment in baseball, and are possibility having one of the biggest disappointing seasons in baseball history. Don’t let their delusional fans tell you otherwise.
Fred, have you heard of the Mets? Maybe even Angels, Yankees, Cards?
At least the Mets and Cardinals realized they were a failure and got prospects. The Padres are too delusional to even self-asset themselves. And no one with a brain expected the Angels to do anything this year.
@SenorTortas
It’s right there at the bottom of the article, under FARM REPORTS.
I guess you can’t read either. I literally posted the quote from the section of the article entitled FARM REPORTS that shows the Padres are ranked 4th.
He is apparently unable to read past headlines.
Lmao what a muppet. This is not a list of the farm rankings. This is a list of most top 100 prospects. That’s not the same thing. It is a good indicator, but it isn’t an overall farm ranking. Padres are ranked between 10-15 by most outlets (highest I have found is 11th). The fact they have some high talent in their system does not make up for a lack of depth elsewhere. It’s not hard to grasp this concept, but apparently you’ve had a good go at missing the point. Probably something to do with being blinded by having your head up your ass lol
@fred I’m a Padres fan and I totally agree with your statements. Especially the delusional part.
All I know is a year ago the padres sold the farm for Soto, bell and hader.
Now they already have 5 top 100 prospects including two top 10 prospects in baseball.
This is a without a single one of their prospects from last years draft being listed. They also have a deal in place to sign the number 1-2 top international player again come January.
Preller may have some issues but restocking the farm isn’t one of them.
I’m retro spec they should have traded snell and hader to add a couple of more top guys.
In the last 3 years the padres have traded a ton of high end prospects yet they just keep finding them. Salas will be the number one prospect in baseball a year from now. He is already the youngest EVER to 5 prospect.
They are still about 2 years away from most of their prospects being mlb ready or close to outside of Merrill. It’s a very young system which will need time to mature to be useful for anything other than trades.
BaseballisLife and Pads Fans are the same guy on 2 different accounts!
Its 2023 and the Padres have two players in the top 10 overall. Do try to keep up.
No he is not. The Padres have 2 players in the top 10 overall, 5 in the top 100, and 15 in the top 250. They have a strong and deep system.
BA has them ranked 10th in their farm system ranking update and they count every prospect in every system while weighting their rankings for players closer to the majors.
Other systems like BP and The Athletic have not updated their farm system rankings, but both have the Padres with 6-7 top 100 prospects in their post draft prospect ranking updates, so when they do come out with rankings in February and March of next year, you can be sure the Padres will be up near the top.
I don’t pay attention to Fangraphs in terms of opinion. Only for stats. One guy cannot possibly see all the top prospects or even talk to enough scouts to judge 900 prospects properly and make a determination of farm system strength. Maybe if a few more of us subscribed they could hire more guys to do the legwork.
Not close. That would be the Mets. The preseason favorites to win the AL East, the Yankees, and Angels are up there also. The preseason favorites to win the Central, the Cardinals are also in the running.
Lots of teams are having disappointing season in addition to the Padres.
Las Vegas expected the Angels to win 89 games this season. I would say those guys have a brain. I would say you don’t judging from your comments on here.
Its self-assess, not self-asset.
The Padres self-assessment was that they had a lot of talent on the team and every single season since at least 2000, 1-3 teams came from further back to make the playoffs than where the Padres were as the trade deadline approached so they added some complimentary pieces to fill in some holes.
That those players have not played as well as they had before the trades is not something the Padres can control. That is on those players.
The Padres also lost one of their best starting pitchers a few days later and Wacha’s injury took longer than expected to heal.
Their assessment prior to the deadline was a good one. Yours is delusional even though its based only on hindsight.
Pads Fans, be real with yourself… do you really think the Angels, a team who hasn’t made the playoffs since 2014, are as big of a disappointment as the Padres? Especially after all the hype the Padres were getting this winter?
“That those players have not played as well as they had before the trades is not something the Padres can control. That is on those players.”
This is simply not true. Rich Hill was not having a good season before the Padres traded for him, Barlow had an ERA in the 5s, Cooper has a sub .300 OBP, Choi was injured for much of the year and hitting .205. These players were not having a good season before San Diego traded for them.
And are you being serious blaming injuries? Michael Wacha hasn’t thrown over 130 innings in a regular season since he was 25…. he’s now 32. It’s not a surprise he’s injured.
Going into the season the Padres were expected to win 90.5 games. They are FAR from the team that has been the biggest disappointment in terms of games won. The Yankees O/U at the beginning of the season was 96 games. The Mets O/U was 93.5 games. The Cardinals O/U was 90.5 games The Angels O/U was 88.5 games.
That the players the Padres traded for completely collapsed after the trades is 100% on them. No one else.
Hill had a 4.76 ERA before the trade. 12.79 afterwards.
Barlow had a 5.35 ERA before the trade. 11.121 after.
Cooper was hitting .256 before the trade, .188 after.
Choi was hitting .205 before the trade. ZERO after.
To even try to say that their collapses is on the Padres is ludicrous. But that kind of hyperbole is pretty common for you.
Wacha was expected to come back after the minimum. Its already been more than a month. Are you seriously trying to say him missing 4-5 more starts than expected did not have an effect on the Padres win-loss?
Musgrove was expected to have a shoulder injury? Are you trying to say him being injured in spring training from dropping a weight on his toe and now with a shoulder injury did not have a negative effect on the Padres season?
YOU said the Angels were not expected to win and that anyone who thought they would was stupid. Las Vegas odds makers thought they would win 88.5 games and their jobs and millions of dollars for the casinos literally depend on them being right most of the time. Those odds makers are incredibly smart.
All of that tells me you would rather deal in hyperbole that is demonstrably false than with the facts of the situation.
Your lack of logic is astounding. Maybe go back to commenting on football or hockey because baseball is definitely not your sport.
I should’ve listened to my own words in my first post in here, “don’t listen to delusional Padres fans”. I’m not wasting my time arguing with you as you try to make it seem like your Padres aren’t a complete failure this season lol
do you really think the Angels, a team who hasn’t made the playoffs since 2014, are as big of a disappointment as the Padres?
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Not even close. Even Angels have come to expect very little of them. They haven’t had a .500 team since 2015.
But past that, I agree there has been other very disappointing teams. But I do remember discussing this with Padre fans in the off-season, and they thought overtaking the Dodgers was close to a sure thing.
Tbh, it wasn’t just their fans doing that. They were the pick to win the NL pennant in the off-season. All the guys on Talkin’ Baseball picked them to win the division, as well. Vegas was the only one that saw through their flawed roster.
Padres weren’t even picked to win the West let alone the pennant. Talking about delusional.
It matters what fans think?
@fred again, I’m a Padres fan and @Pads fans is one of the types that thinks the organization can do no wrong. Preller has more failures than wins and some of us want to see him gone yesterday. I find myself agreeing with your takes more than his, mostly because they’re based in reality.
You have been on here how long? A week? I am known for being a person that tells it like it is and I have smashed the Padres for moves they have made in the past.
That doesn’t change the fact that in this case I have spoken 100% truth.
You can’t argue with the fact that the Padres are not the team that is the biggest disappointment so far this season. The numbers are there. Its not close.
You can’t argue with the fact that the Padres traded for have not played up to their numbers before the trade or that their collapse is 100% on the players.
You can’t argue with the fact that Musgrove missing time to start the season with a fluke weight room injury and going down with a shoulder problem just after the trade deadline has had an effect on the Padres performance.
Fred said the Angel no one with a brain thought the Angels would have a winning team this season, but the projections AND Las Vegas oddsmakers had them being a winning team. Can’t argue with that.
So you have two choices. You can live in hyperbole world because you don’t like the way things worked out for the Padres or you can live in reality backed by facts. Your choice.
A YouTube channel? JomBoy? Seriously? That is your source? Now I know why you are so delusional
Las Vegas didn’t pick the Padres to win the West. All the major projection systems like PECOTA, etc… had the Dodgers winning the West.
Try to stick with reputable sources and not JomBoy.
Who said they weren’t a disappointment? Certainly not me. That you think I said that shows just how delusional or stupid you are. Take your pick. The Padres are not where I thought they would be or they thought they would be right now.
But to say they were the biggest disappointment is flat out ludicrous. They are not even close at this point in the season.
Pads Fans also comments from multiple accounts to give the illusion of “ganging up” on anyone who disagrees with him. BaseballisLife, websoulsurfer and outinleftfield are three of his other accounts. Might be more of them.
MLB has them 9th.
twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1691633477719085504
@Javia and Baseball is Life, aka longtime Padres fans since the year 2021.
Per MLB.com’s midseason rankings, the Padres are ranked at #9, not #4 as you have both suggested. And that’s the highest of any publication so far. And that’s also not even taking into account that MLB.com is known to be more liberal with their rankings because it’s their job to sugarcoat things!
Here’s the actual link
mlb.com/rockies/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-s…
One year after they supposedly traded away their future they are 9th in one publication and 10th in another. Those are the only two publications that put out updated farm rankings after the trade deadline.
Among top 100 prospects, the Padres ranked 4th.
They have 2 TOP 10 prospects overall in both publications.
They have 5 top 100 prospects in one publication and 6 in the other. They have 15 in the top 250 in the only publication that goes that deep.
Great at the top of the list, lots of top 100, and very, very deep.
And they are one behind the Nationals in one publication and just ahead of them in the other.
Preller is insanely good at drafting and signing amateur talent. No one can dispute that. Now if he was only as good at signing free agents.
And trades and developing the aforementioned amateur talent 🙁
1 player in the Padres top 30 prospects came through trades. The rest through the draft and international free agency.
Preller is one of the very best in the business at building a farm system. He has used those prospects as trade chips so far. We will see how he treats this group. I would expect that Salas is untouchable, but no one else if the prize is big enough.
Admittedly that 9th place ranking is impressive. But the rankings need to be taken with some skepticism. Two years ago the Giants were ranked 8th, but a couple of injuries, along with a couple guys regressing, pushed that ranking back to 18th a year later. Plus, there are guys that were never a top 100 that became all-stars, and we all know the high number of those top 100 that never become even league average.
Some facts. While 70+% of them make the majors in some capacity, only 17% of top 100 prospects eventually become career 2.0 WAR players. Roughly 3% have a 4.0 WAR (All Star caliber) season or higher in their career.
Most top 100 prospects wash out. That in no way nullifies the value of the rankings.
Once you get beyond the top 100, the odds of players becoming an average or All Star player go down substantially. That is why its so memorable when it happens, because we rarely see it.
Absolutely agree, though I’ll re-iterate my point that farm system rankings can be volatile. The Royals went from 8th to 29th in one year.. The Marlins went from 6th to 18th in one year. And the Mariners went from 2nd to 24th, also in one year. The Guardians went from 4th to 15th in half a season. The Rockies gained 15 spots in a half a season, only to drop back 5 a year later. The D’backs dropped from 3rd to 12th in half a season.
Some of the drops can be attributed to promoting top prospects, but not all. New draft picks can help elevate the ranking, but it’s not unusual for those young players to not live up to potential. There’s a lot of volatility in the rankings and that 9th place cannot be totally relied upon deliver.
I will also say that most fans overrate the value of prospects. When Preller traded for Soto, I thought it was one of his better moves.
Jean. I think I finally get where you are going. I’d clarify that it isn’t the rankest themselves that need to be taken with skepticism but a fans / teams reliance on the prospects that make up the rankings.
Earlier posts were challenging the actual 9th place ranking of the Padres claiming it was not accurate and the wheels fell off at that point and maybe you got caught in that.
More so than the Soto trade, when prospects are traded and the traded for player doesn’t perform (Bell or Drury in last years cycle, Frazier or Nola) I’ve always said that it’s inaccurate to trash the trade just because a prospect may have a good year – see France’s continuous drop for reference – because you can’t really rely on 90% of the prospects anyway.
It sure is fun to watch them perform in lower levels and dream of that day they magically become an MLB all star though!
To clarify, I never questioned the Padres being ranked 9th. I questioned the assertion that they were 4th. I tried to point out that the article gave points for the number of ranked prospects, in which SD was 4th in those points. But that was not the farm system rankings, and that the actual rankings hadn’t been released yet.
I find it telling that those arguing the most vociferously that SD was ranked 4th, and even insulted those that disagreed, suggesting people couldn’t read, etc. never owned up to being wrong about them being ranked 4th.
A lot of people criticize deals over the short term, which is useless. It takes multiple seasons. All these deals are gambles to one extent or another, and trading for Soto was a gamble, but a good one IMO. If they lose him in FA without a WS title, and 3 of the prospects traded become better than league average I’d say the gamble didn’t pay off. But, I still believe it was worth the risk.
Jean – and you and I couldn’t be more on the same page on the Soto trade. It’s so hard dealing with fans that can’t understand that even if it didn’t net a WS title, it was a good move to try to improve for a WS title in they 22-24 window. None of those prospects were likely to be difference makers in that window, if at all.
So many people fail to even accept that a trade can actually be good for both sides and be ok!
What helps one team in short term (chances of success even if not actually success) can also help another team in the long term. Maybe Woods, Abrams and Gore are valuable pieces 3-5 years down the road, etc. Of course, some people fail to appreciate that some of that talent was for the addition of Bell.
I am pretty sure those are indications HE knows what he is sound.
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But gg is probably right. Preller knows how to scout, but his major league moves are a disaster. He signed Bogaerts even though he already had a superior SS in Kim. That moves Cro to 1st, even though he was a very good 2B.
They needed a 1B, but signed a SS and paid ~ $100M over market.
Preller built a team that made the NLCS. His decision making is definitely not a disaster.
You are taking advantage of hindsight. Kim was not superior in 2022 to Bogaerts overall. A 5.0 WAR vs a 5.9 WAR. He was a better defensive SS. Kim was roughly a league average hitter in 2022 while Bogaerts was one of the best hitting SS in baseball with a 130 OPS+ and 134 wRC+.
The Padres bought a bat for SS knowing that Kim could also play great defense all over the infield. No one expected the breakout season with the bat from Kim. No one.
Cronenworth was a slightly above league average 2B. 2 DRS in 2022 and a 3 DRS average for his career. Good, not great. Having great defense at 2B is more important than at 1B, especially with the shift going away.
What the Padres didn’t count on is a 96 OPS+ from Cronenworth. They were counting on him being above average all season like he was in 2022 and like he has been since the ASG this season.
By definition market is what was paid. Your opinion is it was above market, but reality is he got paid what the market would bear. You know one way I know that? YOU have said it multiple times over the years.
As a RS fan, I loved Bogaerts and wanted him signed at maybe $175M/7. That’s why I called him $100M over market. I doubt the RS offered him anything. Perhaps someone else did. But my guess is that the Padres were bidding against themselves.
And being a RS fan, there was little doubt in my mind that Kim was a better all-around SS. I was actually hoping that, after SD signed Bogaerts, that they would trade Kim to the RS.
Joe, while you are usually realistic, in this case you missed both of his points.
Bogaerts was better. Doesn’t matter what anyone’s opinion is when you see the numbers.
Market value is based on what the market pays, not what any individual thinks a product is worth.
The Red Sox were not willing to go beyond 6 years. They offered $7.5 million more annually in AAV than the Padres paid, but that didn’t bring their offer close to the number of years or total dollars of the winning bid. It was # of years that cost the Red Sox Bogaerts, not AAV. My wife was beside herself when Bloom let him get away.
There total offer was still nearly $40 million more than you thought he was worth.
We know from interviews after the fact that there were 6 teams in the bidding for Bogaerts including the Red Sox.
You have the luxury of hindsight while GMs do not. Bogaerts was by far the better hitter and better overall than Kim as well. The Padres wanted hitting.
As you have said many times on here, the market is what is paid for a player.
The Padres paid far under the AAV that the baseball writers said he was likely to get and what the Red Sox offered per season, but more years. Which is his actual value? That’s right, what you have always said, what a team was willing to pay.
They offered $7.5 million more annually in AAV than the Padres paid, but that didn’t bring their offer close to the number of years or total dollars of the winning bid.
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The terms of the contract was a mirage. It was a smart move by Preller to drag it out to 11 years, but I think it obviously a $280M/8 contract, or $35M/year thru age 37.
I had two issues with the contract/ maybe three. He has somewhat substantial H/A splits with the RS (.865/.754). To me, that makes him more like a .754 hitter. And somewhat related, X had 13 road HRs between 2021-22. That kind of converts to maybe 15 HRs/season playing outside Fenway.
My other issue was his range. He makes up for it by almost never mishandling a grounder, and rarely making a bad throw, but his range was below-average his last two years in Boston, and won’t get any better.
Call him out for arguing with you from 2 different accounts Joe!
OPS+ and wRC+ take into account home park and the parks they play in on the road. So that made him a 130 OPS+ and 134 wRC+ hitter the last 2 seasons before the Padres signed him.
Nearly 100% of hitters have a H/A split in favor of the home park regardless of where they play.
Last year and this year Bogaerts range run value has been positive, meaning his range at SS is above league average. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaer…
Both seasons his OAA has been well above average also.
I think you are avoiding the main point. Market value is what the market paid for a player, not what any fans think he is worth.
You are absolutely correct about Preller. He is going nowhere this offseason. If the Padres don’t make the playoffs in 2024 that is a different story.
Padres deadline trades haven’t worked out so well. Wacha comes back this series. Does Rich Hill go on phantom IL when he does?
Maybe, but they’re missing Musgrove now. That leaves Darvish, Snell, Lugo, Hill and Wacha. Am I missing someone? Does Martinez stay in the rotation or back to the bullpen? The bullpen is in deep trouble.
Avila for Hill next time.
Longtime. Thank you. Not a Padres fan so don’t know all the guys that could take the ball instead of Hill. If I remember correctly, Avila has 2 4 inning scoreless outings since being called back up?
Something like that and most of them is in relief of Hill the last 2 starts.
Might as well see what you have for a possible 2024 spot as well as an improvement over Hill.
Yeah you are a Padres fan! You’re Pads Fans on a second account.
Avila is on the same schedule and has pitched well, while Hill has been awful. Avila is likely to get those starts now.
Use to be Joe Camel but he gave it up.
4th ranked farm system by whom?
MLB.com has them at 23rd
Fan Graphs has them at 13th
Bleacher report has them at 18th
Prospects1500 has them at 29th
The Athletic has them at 24th
Haven’t seen a single source with a top 10 listing let alone 4th.
Wrong, as usual.
Read the updated rankings that came out this weekend. #4.
They have the #5 and #9 overall prospects.
Try again.
MLBPipeline just posted their overall farm system rankings on Twitter. They have the Padres at #9.
twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1691633477719085504
Word to the wise, if you are going to open your comment by telling someone they are “wrong as usual” and end it by telling them to “try again,” make sure you end up getting the details correct yourself. Padres are ranked 9th on MLBPipeline. Idk about the other sites.
Part I liked best is they are ranked 1 spot below the Washington Nationals despite essentially trading their entire farm to the Nationals a year ago.
Oh, and Baseball America has them at #10 in their updated rankings.
Since it’s obvious you have a hard time with Google and certainly can’t actually do a search on mlb.com, here is the link.
mlb.com/news/top-100-prospects-updated-2023-midsea…
Since you may not even have the wattage to follow a link, here is the quote.
These are the 10 systems with the most Prospect Points following this update:
Orioles, 433 (Jackson Holliday, SS, No. 1)
Brewers, 353 (Jackson Chourio, OF, No. 2)
Pirates, 274 (Paul Skenes, RHP, No. 3)
Padres, 257 (Ethan Salas, C, No. 5)
Nationals, 249 (Dylan Crews, OF, No. 4)
Rays, 242 (Junior Caminero, 3B/SS, No. 6)
Tigers, 232 (Max Clark, OF, No. 15)
Reds, 228 (Noelvi Marte, 3B/SS, No. 24)
Cubs, 225 (Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, No. 12)
Rangers, 218 (Evan Carter, OF, No. 8)
That is only looking at current top 100 prospects. Guys who aren’t in the top 100 (yet) have value too. Padres farm has a big dropoff after the top 8 or so.
According to BA the Padres have 8 players in the top 110 and 15 players in the top 250 prospects overall. That is pretty deep.
Each team is allowed to have up to 290 players in their minor leagues. 15 in the top 250 is very good, but doesn’t mean there’s depth in the system.
Btw, you may want to try to find Law’s post draft updated list. Padres aren’t 24th.
Zerbs63: Is there a way to find out where they ranked before the Soto trade as well as the others? Maybe they were fourth before they decided to cash in this off-season.
They are 4th NOW.
Nope. 9th.
twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1691633477719085504
Those are preseason rankings. A lot has happened since then and the Padres now have two players in the top 10 overall. Thanks for pointing out that you don’t pay attention after the season starts.
“Wrong, as usual.”
*proceeds to post factually inaccurate information*
Did you ever smoke Gamel cigarettes?
Interesting to me how people love to hate on the Padres. They’ve never won it all. Came close twice though. Why don’t some of you “fans” be fans and let ‘em get up.
I don’t “love to hate the Padres”. In fact I was hoping they would be taking down the Dodgers this season. But, while I don’t hate the Padres, I do believe that Preller is just not the guy I’d want running my team. Seidler seems to be taken with him, which I think is also a problem for the team. I’d love to see them win a WS title (I root for every team without one), but in my opinion that ain’t happening anytime soon. At least not with Preller, and the long term issues facing this team.
Gamel hustles and plays the game hard. I am glad to see him back in the Majors! Good luck Ben!
Padres are a mess. I call it lazy GM-ing. Just sign all stars and spend the owner’s money. Never works as guys undoubtedly lose an edge when that paycheck is guaranteed to come in for a number of years in the future.
I don’t know what it is they look the same they practice the same they approach the same but so many of these stars go from hitting .330 to hitting .250. It’s something about that edge in their game to prove themselves.
Lazy GM-ing is signing the studs and giving them long contracts; good GM finds the guys that will become studs and employs them during their initial productive heyday of hitting .330. Puts the work in to find these guys, Scout these guys, draft these guys.
Not let other teams do the work, sign the studs to Big Money and watch them fade Into Fat paycheck status.
Two primary examples are Mark Teixeira a .330 hitter going to the Yankees for big money and becoming a .250 hitter and the same with Adrian Gonzalez. Lazy General managing. Padres results are proof it doesn’t work.
There’s probably about 100 guys in the majors much worse than Gamel, I have no idea why it took so long for him to see playing time. Not saying he should start, but could be a fringe starter for quite a few teams and at least a decent bench bat.
A 4A player with nine lives.
Carpenter had three wishes from the genie in the bottle, and used them all up to have that season with the Yankees.
Always thought the Padres were foolish to invest in him. Time fir him to retire like Wainwright.
Rock in that chair and enjoy your pension, Matt.