Despite possessing the American League’s best record, the Orioles have had a quiet deadline. They rolled the dice on Shintaro Fujinami’s recent improvements and triple-digit heater, hoping to deepen an already strong bullpen, but the rotation — arguably their top need — has gone unaddressed. The O’s were linked to multiple starters who have since been traded elsewhere, but other targets (e.g. Michael Lorenzen, Rich Hill) remain available. And, Baltimore clearly hasn’t ruled out a much higher-profile addition. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the O’s are “on the periphery” of the Justin Verlander market, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the O’s are among the teams with whom the Mets are actively discussing Verlander. Morosi adds that the Orioles and Tigers are also talking — presumably about Lorenzen and/or Eduardo Rodriguez.
At least on paper, it’s hard to find a better fit for Verlander than the Orioles. Baltimore has the American League’s best record, is as deep in young talent as virtually any team in the game, and has a blank slate when it comes to long-term payroll. Perhaps no contending club could more easily accommodate the remaining $14.444MM on Verlander’s 2023 salary and the $43.333MM he’s owed in 2024. His contract also contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if Verlander throws 140 innings next year. That’s been an understandable hurdle in talks with multiple clubs; Verlander will pitch the 2025 season at age 42.
The only guaranteed contract on Baltimore’s books in 2024 is backup catcher James McCann, and the Mets are picking up all but $2.5MM of next year’s salary as part of the trade that sent him to the Orioles. Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, John Means, Tyler Wells, Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle are among the many notable members of the Orioles’ arbitration class, but it’s nonetheless as close to a pristine payroll outlook as you’ll find for a contending club.
Meanwhile, starting pitching has long been reported to be the Orioles’ top need. It’s easy enough to understand why. Good as the team’s overall record is, their rotation’s 4.48 ERA ranks 16th in the Majors. With the exception of veteran innings eater Kyle Gibson, the bulk of the Baltimore staff is approaching or has already exceeded 2023’s innings total. Dean Kremer is just 15 innings shy of last year’s total. Kyle Bradish is 36 innings shy of his own 2023 total. Wells and Grayson Rodriguez have already topped last season’s workloads.
The Mets traded one high-priced, future Hall of Famer over the weekend when they sent Max Scherzer to the Rangers, paid down all but $22.5MM of the salary he was still owed, and acquired top prospect Luisangel Acuna in return. They’re reported to hold Verlander in even higher regard, setting both a higher prospect asking price and showing less willingness to pay down significant money.
The Verlander market is generally thought to be accelerating, and there’s a real chance he’s traded today. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets’ Verlander talks “picked up steam” late last night with multiple clubs. The Astros, according to Martino, have made a formal offer. At least one other team has done the same, and there are two to three more clubs also involved. Jon Heyman of the New York Post dusted off a time-honored trade deadline favorite this morning, tweeting that there’s at least one “mystery team” beyond the previously reported Astros and Dodgers.
That, of course, could be the Orioles, but given Verlander’s status and the league-wide need for starting pitching, it’s only natural to assume others are involved. The Reds, Angels and D-backs have all been rumored to be in the market for varying levels of rotation help as well, and virtually no major name hits the trade market without the Padres throwing their hat into the ring as well. None of those teams has been directly connected to Verlander, to be clear, but the day is young.
I have discussed being a billionaire but alas, it has yet to happen.
‘Good luck with that!” David Justice to Scott Hatteberg in “Moneyball”
Lets go Mets get something good for JV.
Id be surprised if JV waved is NTC for Baltimore.
If he wants a shot at a ring I think he’d waive it. They seem like a good match trade wise but I guess only time will tell.
You’re acting like it’s not whatever Kate says.
Honestly that’s a good point but she absolutely did not want to go to Houston and once they got there they fell in love with the place so I think anything is on the table.
Some people believe in Conspiracies around JFK, Sasquatch, etc.
My conspiracy theory that I believe in is that Rick Porcello was given a Cy Young Award because it was waaaay more entertaining to hear Kate Upton tell God and everyone that Verlander got robbed (again)
Good times
Conspiracy against Cespedes! Bring La Potencia back to Queens!!! Adios señor Vogelbach!!!
I wouldn’t. Baltimore is a contender. In terms of accomplishment, Verlander winning again in Houston means less than Verlander winning with another team.
Pristine? Once that catcher gets to near the end of his arbitration years & add in some of their other core younger players when they also get there that will add $100+ million more to the long term ledger (3 to 4 maybe 5 players).
Just like in Hockey a team can easily have up to 5 players take up half or more of the payroll in due time.
@Astros2017&22Champs: He can’t WAVE it, but he might WAIVE it.
@Astros- Why wouldn’t JV not wanna go to Baltimore? The Orioles have better minor league talent then Houston. So the Mets would benefit also with that. The Dodgers make more sense then the Stro’s also.
Natty Boh is overrated, so if JV doesn’t like Crab Cakes or Old Bay Seasoning, there’s no appeal for him
Never overrated!
“Natty Boh is overrated”
This is the single worst take I have ever seen on this website by a significant margin.
Houston has the better major league talent. Thats what wins titles
I mean, the records say otherwise…
Ask the Dodgers how that worked out last year.
He might. He supposedly grew up 160 miles from Camden Yards. Would need Kate’s okay.
JV grew up in Richmond, which is O’s territory. He likes playing for winning teams. He’s been convinced to join a young, surging team GM’d by Mike Elias before.
As an O’s fan, that’s all I got. Baltimore ain’t Manhattan. Hoping Kate likes crab cakes…
Verlander grew up in Goochland County, not Richmond – which is certainly not Orioles territory.
There are still Braves fans in Richmond because of the former minor league ties. Sooner or later Richmond is likely to become the Nats’ AAA home – but that depends on construction of a new ballpark.
That is a lie. Richmond AND Goochland are both Orioles territory and have been forever. The Braves affiliation was only as deep as the AAA team that has since moved. Richmond didn’t become Giants territory when the Flying Squirrels came to town, just like they were never Atlanta territory just because they host a MiLB team. Similarly no one with a brain would call Myrtle Beach “Cubs territory” just because of the Pelicans.
Richmond does have Nats influence, and was Senators territory way before that. But when Verlander was growing up, it was firmly O’s territory, and arguably still is. I live there. And as someone who grew up out in the boonies adjacent to Goochland not that long after Verlander did, I can say for certain that rural central Virginia is very much O’s territory.
He grew up in Richmond. Born in Goochland.
drewnats34 — I mean, the Nationals are Quebecs’ minor league team in DC, so I get the confusion.~
Well, he grew up only a couple of hours outside of Baltimore so don’t know who his favorite team was but he’s probably open to going back that area, I would think.
Elias is “the one that got away” for the Astros. This is a good fit for the rest of the year. The Orioles need to be careful not to displease the baseball gods by standing pat, because it’s important that this team reach the ALDS at a minimum this year. The AL is extremely top heavy, more so than normal. The Orioles have no excuses to not get pitching help. You never know when it’s your year.
Their window will be open for quite some time. The commentators have been urging them to trade for pitching since the start of the season, when the consensus pick was 4th in the AL East. The baseball gods seem to approve just fine of their patience in conducting an evaluation period.
dankyank – The window may appear to be open for a long time but you never know what can happen. This could be their best shot in dealing from a position of strength (AL’s best record). The last time they had that position they lost key players to injury and suspension down the stretch and ran out of gas by the ALCS despite winning 96 games. In the other years they were fighting for wild card status, frequently from behind. Unlike teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, the Orioles won’t make several drastic, expensive moves to reposition after one year’s run to be ready the very next year and then do it again.
True but they traded away josh hader and E-Rod for 1 year rentals. The Machado Years would have been more successful and a longer window to win if they didn’t bet the farm on rentals. This team is built differently with a better farm system but in desperate need of a starter. I wouldn’t be surprised if the birds don’t make a trade and ride it out with the guys who have gotten them this far.
The correct comparison is the Astros, ten years removed from the start of their tank job, still extracting value from the farm system Between the productive veterans and the plethora of minor league talent, there are endless ways for Baltimore to construct their roster going forward. Once you start shipping out multiple prospects for a single veteran, those options narrow. The Padres, not the Orioles, are the team facing major questions about retooling and payroll committments for 2024.
True but so far those Astros proved MUCH better than the Orioles have at developing and acquiring quality starting pitchers.
Let’s not forget they had/got that drove their bigg years 2015-19
1. McCullers – drafted 2012, average to well above starter 2015-22 albeit not at a 30 start per year guy.
2. Kuechel – drafted 2009, all star to Cy level starter 2014-18
3. Verlander – picked up in 2017 and followed with 2 dominating years.
4. McHugh – picked up from the Mets prior to their run, gave several good years.
5. Morton – FA signee for 2 very good years.2017-18
So the Astros did develop some pitching but also weren’t afraid to go out and get some top notch starters. So far the Orioles have done neither. Too early to tell on Gray-Rod, Bradish not exactly at this level…and as of this moment dollars not spent…certainly no one on planet earth is going to compare Gibson and Irvin to Morton and Verlander.
The point is, the Astros spent big on pitching when they were already contending with their offense being a lot on the farm, and went from that fringe team to 100+ wins (and not exactly playing in the AL East either – its a higher threshold for any contender there)
The current Orioles regime has actually had good luck with pitcher development and identifying overlooked arms. The issue is simply that Elias opts to draft the best player available, regardless of position.
dankyank – relievers, yes. Starters? Wells just got sent to AA and he was their best starter, already up on innings limit/career high (unclear where a true limit is but probably no more than 10-20% over previous career high). DL Hall already being converted to a reliever.
The article actually touches upon starters either running up on limits or surpassing career highs with almost 60 games left in the season. Relief corps has shown cracks recently with their heavy usage so far. Reinforcements are needed for a serious stretch run. They’ve got a number of games left against the teams hot on their heels (TBR, HOU, TOR) who are picking up help.
Wells’ demotion to AA is to keep him in close proximity to Baltimore. Bowie is WAY closer than Norfolk. And Wells was a Rule 5 guy who had the second best WHIP in baseball during the first half, and was great in the rotation last year aside from two IL stints. To use Wells as an example of the Elias regime not being good with pitchers is as obtuse as it is false. Swing and a miss.
DL Hall was a Dan Duquette draftee. Not an Elias one. He went on the shelf shortly after Elias took over, and trying to stretch him out again this spring failed when his velo plummeted.
Bradish was an Elias trade, and Bradish is excellent. Strong candidate to become a number 2 starter. Wells being converted from a reliever back to SP after missing two seasons entirely is also an Elias success story. Fixing Kremer, who was a Duquette trade acquisition, also occurred under Elias’ watch. Though Kremer is not more than a number 5, he is a gamer and gritty as they come.
Elias inherited a devastated farm system without a pitching program. He drafted best player available with each pick. Everyone knows you don’t draft for current needs – you draft for talent, period. Pitching is fickle – look at how many 1st rounders wash out before reaching the bigs. Meanwhile Elias’ 1st rounders have been quite good. We really don’t know how his pitching program will develop starters, since he’s largely had to work with Duquette holdovers since.
Also, look at the O’s starter usage compared to say, the Rays. It’s heavy. Saying the O’s starters have failed is stupid. The relief corps has been used a lot, but so have the starters.
And Houston is not on the O’s heels. Different division, and O’s are the division leader, may I remind you… not hokding a WC spot. Even if they do drop back to the WC spots, there’s three of them. They can worry about Houston at that time. But the O’s have manhandled Houston the past two years, so not overly concerned there.
This is laughably wrong. Means was a holdover from the previous regime that was a developmental success. Bradish was developed through their farm system after the Bundy trade. GRod has been vastly improved in his second call up.
You’re also misrepresenting Hall, whose future role is undecided. Quite frankly, the Orioles need pitching prospects in the minors over the long term more than they need big major league starters immediately. That can wait until the off-season.
Considering the Orioles unwillingness to spend, the only way this might work is if the Mets, who’ve spent a ton, eat most of the salary. But the O’s would have to pony up some of that farm talent to make it happen. It’s the kind of move a serious contender would make.. Do they have the nads to do it?
Elias does, the Angelos ilk do not.
Took less than expected, one top prospect, to land Scherzer and the Mets picked up a good portion of his contract. Could happen for JV as well. It would be funny to see Cohen paying a quarter of the Orioles payroll!
When it’s time to spend, the Angelos family does spend. They did so mid to late last decade. Heck, in the late 90s they had the highest MLB payroll for a year or 2. This is not an issue.
They haven’t been this close in years. They have to show it’s not an issue by stepping up and making a real difference making move for Verlander- Even if they have to pick up a big chunk of his salary.
David Sterns too
You have to stir the curd to get the cheese
Verlander has a clause in his contracts that his teams must have orange in their uniforms.
LOL – they could add a patch.
Only the Orioles and Giants are left to complete the orange circuit.
True. It will be interesting if he goes to Baltimore. Miserable city nowadays, like SF, but a good team. I would root for the Orioles the rest of this year if he goes there.
I hope the Orioles pry Justin Verlander away from the Mets instead of the Astros. The Royals are done playing the Orioles, but they have yet to play the Astros this year so I would appreciate it. If I wouldn’t have to watch the Royals have to hit against Justin.
Worry less my child, for we would skip his place in the rotation to rest him when facing your anemic offense. Go ‘Stros!
What would they get besides Heston Kjerstad ? The Mets need pitching prospects. DL Hall ? Povich ? Chayce McDermott ? Seth Johnson ( but on the IL) ? I would say Kjerstad and 2 pitching prospects
Dodgers : Andy Pages and Bobby Miller or Gavin Stone Pepiot
Houston: McCormick and Colton Gordon or Spencer Arrighetti
I think Kjerstad and DL Hall would be a solid return, although I’m not sure how I feel about a pitchers name that is DL. Seems like bad juju
Next years OF can be Acuna, Nimmo and Kjerstad if we can get a taker for Marte lol
highly doubt the O’s are going to be moving multiple pitching prospects in any trade. Position players is the systems strength. I would imagine DL Hall could be had for a starter. Don’t see Verlander coming to Baltimore though.
Now, we are talking and Verlander is healthy, he should be ready to roll
The funny thing is, the Mets gave him a 2 year 89.5 million dollar deal to sign with them
I would have (if I had been the Orioles) a 2 year / 90 Million dollar deal
However, that really wouldn’t have worked because Verlander was hurt for like 2 months of this season, but now, he is good
Orioles should do it!!!
It’s 3 years $135M. He has a 2025 option that vests if he pitches 140 innings next year
a two-year contract with a vesting option for 2025. It’s reportedly an $86.66MM guarantee
I didn’t remember the vesting option
I just remember arguing, I would have offered 2 /90
No way E-Rod opts out with his health issues. I’d be surprised he’s dealt.
Didn’t seem to hinder Rodon, or deGrom. Do you actually think these front offices learn from mistakes? It only takes one fool, and I hear they are born every minute.
Did you see the deals guys like Bassitt, Taillon, and Walker got? He’s 100% going to opt out if he stays healthy and productive the rest of the season.
Yeah. 3/49 is nothing for a guy w/ his numbers on the open market. He’ll be able to add at least 2 years onto his deal at that salary.
If the Stros don’t get him hope the O’s do
I would think it would be either Ortiz or Mayo (Mets choice) DL Hall and Cade Povich for JV.
Doubt the O’s would move Povich. Pitching is the system’s weakness. I think the Mets have to kick in $30-35MM for this to work out. It’d surprise me to see this actually happen. but I’d imagine the package starts with Cowser and other position players prospects.
Just for the next 2 years. There’s no way the O’s are going to pay that full 2023 vesting option. This would be a ludicrous amount of cash for the Mets to send.
I don’t know. They paid a lot of money for Acuna but this would be pretty insane
Look how few teams are even considering him. Look at the Scherzer return. Mets will be kicking in money $$$ and will be lucky to get one stud prospect and one lotto ticket. Cohen just wants as much off the books as he can to lower the penalty tax.
Cohen’s doing the opposite of that though. He’s paying more lux tax to get a good prospect.
There’s no way the O’s are paying anywhere close to 40 a year though. With all the money he has left—you’re looking at eating $55-60MM at minimum with that vesting option. It’d have to be a decent return for that. This would shock me—I don’t see it.
They should hold the Mayo
Seriously doubt Elias deals Mayo for what could be just a rental. I suspect that he’s approaching being off limits (along with Holliday) the way he’s played this season and being only 21 in AAA.
Now, if we are talking about Gilbert or Burnes via trade to BAL, then I think you don’t hold the Mayo and he’s part of those deal discussions since you are buying years of control, at presumably much lower financial cost than someone like Verlander.
You’re only getting a year of Burnes. Assuming the brewers trade him in the off-season.
I thought Burnes was a FA after ‘25. Maybe I misread and he’s a FA after ‘24, going into ‘25.
Orioles should make the deal and then shop JV in the off-season themselves. If his NTC is a sticking point, they can promise to move him in the off-season.
Why would you shop him in the off-season if you’re likely giving up two top prospects to get him, with the Mets paying probably half his salary? He’d honestly be a good addition to the team for the duration of the contract if you get the Mets to eat a good chunk.
So they make that promise and then he either stinks or gets injured. What now?
That’s not something they can put in writing, so don’t think he’ll take the handshake deal.
The O’s aren’t going to get Verlander unless the Mets get really creative with how much money they will pick up and whether that ’25 option becomes guaranteed and it will cost the O’s the farm literally if the Mets do that. I’d think that despite Verlander’s number’s this year the Mets would want mlb ready talent plus prospects which the O’s have. Will they part with it? I don’t know. What I do know is that Baltimore will not spend any money. They never have they never will. The only way I see it is if Cohen pays it down which he has shown he will. Much more complicated then Scherzer. Same goes for E-Rod. Complicated contract status and too much money for one of the cheapest franchises in the sport
Joey Ortiz for Kate Upton. Who says no?
“Despite having the best record, the Orioles haven’t done much”.
No kidding?! They are the best team so…
My advice to my fellow Orioles fans would be to take this “report” about as seriously as a prediction about your future that you found inside of a cookie that you received with your Chinese takeout order.
Exactly
Not happening..
Yeah. This is nearly impossible to get to together. The Mets would be eating an insane amount of cash to facilitate.
I have also discussed Justin Verlander.
I agree he would be a good addition, but whether you or I think that isn’t important. It’s only important whether or not he wants to be in Baltimore. In the event he doesn’t want to go to Baltimore long term and won’t wave his no-trade, they can offer to move him so he only has to spend three months there. He and the team gets a chance to win the World Series and then he can move on to a place he’d rather be and the Orioles can recoup some of the lost prospect value while increasing their chances to win a World Series this year. It’s not that ridiculous.
If JV doesn’t go to Baltimore, would they take Carrasco or Quintana for Kjerstad, does JV stay in NY or goes back to Houston for McCormick and a pitching prospect or the Dodgers for Pages and Bobby Miller or Gavin Stone Mets can put McCormick or Pages in LF , Kjerstad in RF , hopefully they can rid themselves of Marte and Acuna at 2b
No chance
Orioles are not paying for anyone
I think you meant to say overpaying. If you’ve followed Elias’ quotes about adding talent, he’s said they are in the market, but they’re not going to set their farm system on fire.
I think Elias and co. deserve some credit for staying the course and following their methodology. It’s worked very well to this point, arguably better than several “all-in” teams like say, idk, the Padres?
Can the Mets go after Dylan Cease ? For the next couple of years we know this year is 80% not happening , with Acuna in at 2b the Mets can offer Mauricio, Vientos and maybe Allan ? If the Mets keep JV it could be JV, Cease, FA, Senga and Quintana if not traded and McNeil in LF
I’m not opposed to the right deal for JV. Aside from what he brings to the team, imagine what he could do as a mentor to GrayRod. But if I’m ponying up top hitting talent, I’m more interested in talking to Seattle about Logan Gilbert.
Realistically where will he end up.
ahead knows Houston and Scherzer is in Texas. Will he waive for Houston. I know Houston does not have the talent in minors. But they could use Meyers or Julks as outfield. I truly hope not McCormick. I do not see Houston focused on anything but Verlander. I do not think things will go over well if do not get him. As was said they do not need a starter. But think Verlander perhaps can settle Javier and Framber down. Brown perhaps.
Orioles Imdo not know on waiving NTC with them. But I like how Baltimore is now in thick of things.
Dodgers not sure with them.
Rangers even though got Scherzer will he be effective for them. They sure came out of gate. Houston only half game behind. So can see the push for Verlander. I do not see them matching up for these last 2 months with Framber, Javier, Urquidy, France, Brown against the Rangers anyways. Houston has 3 games left with them.
I think Verlander goes somewhere. Will it be a deadline deal or will he go before
This is all just discussion. Elias has already said the team won’t “set the farm system on fire” and Cohen wants to pay down big salaries in trades to acquire premium prospects. Obviously these two sentiments preclude a deal from happening.
Orioles don’t do it please.
JV is going back to Houston. He’s bringing along a couple trash cans too.
Had to be a scenario where JV had a preference. Surely Elias could offer a better package than Houston did
“Good as the team’s overall record is…” come on. This is not grammatically correct. You have to say “AS good as the team’s overall record is.” Words and proper grammar are not optional, Steve Adams. You’re a disgrace to the writing profession.