A somewhat surprising trend began yesterday when the Angels placed six members of their active roster on outright waivers: Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. The White Sox (Mike Clevinger), Mets (Carlos Carrasco) and Tigers (Jose Cisnero) all followed suit, to varying degrees.
In many ways, it hearkens back to the days of revocable August trade waivers, when it was common for teams to run the majority of their roster through trade waivers. That led to what was effectively a second trade deadline at the end of August, as high-priced veterans who’d gone unclaimed were free to be moved. This set of circumstances, however, is quite different.
The players waived by the Angels, White Sox, Mets and Tigers are on irrevocable outright waivers. Any team that is awarded a claim on one of these players immediately takes on the remainder of that player’s contract. If one of these veterans goes unclaimed — it’s likely that a few of them will — their current team does not have to outright them to a minor league affiliate. They can simply return said player to their active roster and continue playing him as normal. (The Angels reportedly already passed Tyler Anderson through outright waivers last week and just kept him on the roster after he went unclaimed.) Similarly, these players are quite obviously free to keep playing. Many of them played last night. Renfroe literally hit a home run as I was typing this paragraph. Waivers are fun!
The outright waiver period is 48 hours, meaning we’ll have resolution on everyone from this group at some point tomorrow afternoon (though news of the claims being awarded could be staggered a bit). Waiver priority is determined based on reverse order of winning percentage and is not league specific. League-specific waiver priority was unique to revocable August trade waivers and is now defunct. It’s a common misconception that it remains in place, but MLBTR has confirmed with league sources on multiple occasions that waiver priority is simply worst team through best team — in this case, starting with the A’s and ending with the Braves. More specifically, waiver priority is determined based on the reverse standings on the day players clear waivers, meaning we’ll know the final waiver priority for all of these veterans once tonight’s games are wrapped up.
That’s a whole bunch of preamble that may or may not have been necessary, depending on your prior understanding of waiver minutiae. It felt pertinent to do a brief crash course, however, given the unusual nature of this sequence of moves and the major ramifications it could hold with teams in a tight playoff race.
It’s fair to assume the non-contenders are going to pass on picking up any of these players — they’re all impending free agents — but any club with a glimmer of postseason hope could place a claim. That technically includes the Guardians and the Padres, although both are long shots, at best to play meaningful games in October. FanGraphs gives Cleveland and San Diego respective playoff odds of 3.3% and 1.8%, while Baseball Prospectus has the Guards at just 1.6% and the Friars at what seems like a generous 7%. You can never rule out the Padres on big-name players, but they’re already in the third tier of luxury penalization, so anyone they acquire will come with a 75% tax. It’d be a steep price to pay, but hey, when has that ever stopped president of baseball ops A.J. Preller and owner Peter Seidler?
We’re writing about the best fits for this trio of outfielders, however, and the “best” fit doesn’t seem like a team whose playoff hopes are the rough equivalent of hitting a one-outer on the river in a hand of Texas Hold ’Em. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at each outfielder, how much he’s still owed on his contract, his strengths/flaws, whether he’s likely to be claimed at all, and where he might best fit among the group of contenders who’ll have priority over the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays and Mariners (i.e. the upper echelon of MLB’s standings).
Harrison Bader
Age: 29 | Bats: R | Salary: $4.7MM ($783K yet to be paid out) | Position: Center Field
Bader is the youngest, the cheapest and the likeliest of this trio to be claimed. Age and salary play a major role in that, but so does his glove. Bader isn’t just the best defensive outfielder of this bunch — he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in Major League Baseball. He can play any of the three outfield spots, but the defense is so strong that it’s almost a waste to have him anywhere other than center. In 4243 innings of center field play at the big league level, Bader has piled up 43 Defensive Runs Saved and a mammoth 61 Outs Above Average.
For some further context, Bader’s 4243 innings in center field from 2017-23 rank just 96th among all big league players in terms of total innings played at one position. But he nevertheless ranks 18th among all Major Leaguers in Defensive Runs Saved and seventh in Outs Above Average. In other words, even though 95 players have had a larger sample of innings to rack up accolades in that pair of cumulative defensive metrics, Bader still has higher totals than nearly all of them.
Prior to the 2023 season, Bader has been more or less a league-average hitter. From 2018-22, he batted .245/.319/.407 — good for a 98 wRC+. By that measure, he was 2% worse than a big league hitter. For a player with this type of defensive talent, that made him a standout all-around performer. This year, however, has seen his bat take a step back. Bader is fanning at a career-low 18%, but he’s hitting just .239/.275/.365. He’s walking less than ever, hitting more fly balls than ever before, and seeing just 6.5% of those flies turn into home runs (the second-lowest mark of his career).
One thing Bader is doing quite well — and that he’s always done well — is torching left-handed pitching. He’s a career .267/.332/.508 batter against southpaws, but in 2023 he’s absolutely demolishing lefties at a .348/.389/.697 clip. Granted, it’s only 72 plate appearances, but Bader has nonetheless been a behemoth when holding the platoon advantage.
Any team can stand to improve its outfield defense, but there are still a few contenders who could make particular use of this type of glove. The Marlins have been seeking a center fielder for years. They rank 29th in the Majors with -19 DRS and are tied for 22nd with -7 OAA. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants and Cubs all grade as below-average defensive outfield units, too. As far as production against lefties, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Twins and Reds are all bunched tightly together in terms of wRC+ (ranging San Francisco’s 90 to Cincinnati’s 94). The Brewers are also at 94, but they’re currently tied with the Rangers and Astros for the sixth-worst waiver priority in MLB. It’s hard to imagine Bader falling that far.
The Twins have a similar skill set here (Michael A. Taylor) and are hoping to get Byron Buxton back soon. The Cubs and Red Sox make some sense — Boston in particular, after Jarren Duran’s injury — but both are a ways down the waiver pecking order. Bader would make any contending team better — even if only as a bench player — but he seems like a particularly good fit for the Marlins or the Giants.
Hunter Renfroe
Age: 31 | Bats: R | Salary: $11.9MM ($1.98MM remaining) | Position: Right field
Renfroe’s salary is significant enough that he’s not a lock to be claimed at all — particularly since he’s in the midst of a down year at the plate (the aforementioned homer notwithstanding). A well above-average hitter with the Red Sox and Brewers in 2021-22 when he batted .257/.315/.496, Renfroe finds himself batting .239/.301/.430 on the year — about 3% worse than average, per wRC+. He’s hitting more grounders than he has since his rookie season, popping up more often than ever, and has seen both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate drop to nearly career-low levels.
Earlier in his career, Renfroe was considered a premium defensive outfielder, but his sprint speed and outfield reads have degraded over the past few years, per Statcast. His raw arm strength still sits in the 92nd percentile of MLB players, so opposing baserunners will want to think twice about tagging up when Renfroe is on the receiving end of a fly-ball, but Renfroe’s range simply isn’t what it once was. DRS pegs him at -8, while OAA is a bit more favorable but still gives him a mark of -3.
Traditionally, Renfroe has punished left-handed pitching. He’s a lifetime .261/.342/.523 hitter against lefties in the big leagues, but this season has seen that production muted. Nearly all of Renfroe’s power has come against right-handed opponents; he’s hitting .250/.304/.356 against lefties, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than he currently sports against right-handed opponents.
Renfroe was hot-potato’ed around the league even during more productive times, bouncing to four teams in four years — Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels — a reflection of the manner in which the market has generally deprioritized/devalued bat-first corner players with OBP concerns. It’ll now cost a team just shy of $2MM to rent him for one month, and that may be a price at which some clubs balk.
That said, Renfroe has some track record and has still been a roughly average hitter in 2023. He’d be an upgrade over bench bats that are being rostered even on a number of contending clubs, and a team dealing with injuries in the outfield could certainly view him as a potential difference-maker.
While the Marlins could use Bader in center, they’re well-stocked on corner options and have Jorge Soler at DH. The Red Sox and Brewers have both already traded Renfroe once. The Giants (Mitch Haniger) and D-backs (Tommy Pham) have relatively similar players. The Twins could view Renfroe as a viable upgrade over Jordan Luplow or the struggling Joey Gallo, and the Reds are a fit with Jake Fraley, Joey Votto and Jonathan India on the injured list. Renfroe could push Nick Senzel back to Triple-A. If Renfroe makes it to the Mariners, he could be an upgrade over Dominic Canzone in left field with Jarred Kelenic out. The Dodgers could certainly afford to add Renfroe with J.D. Martinez on the injured list and a slew of lefty-hitting outfield options — if he makes it that far.
Randal Grichuk
Age: 32 | Bats: R | Salary: $9.333MM ($1.55MM remaining) | Position: All three outfield spots
Grichuk was having a strong season with the Rockies, batting .308/.365/.496 in 263 plate appearances, but his bat cratered following a trade to the Halos. In 104 plate appearances since the swap, he’s batted .165/.212/.351 with a 25% strikeout rate that’s considerably higher than the 19.4% mark he posted in Denver.
Grichuk has long been a limited player despite tools that suggest otherwise. Statcast annually grades him with above-average speed and arm strength, but he’s never been a threat to steal bases and has drawn inconsistent (at best) grades for his defense around the outfield. He’s probably best-suited for corner work at this point, but the Rox and Angels have given him 143 innings in center this year. He has more than 3000 career innings in both center and right, in addition to nearly 1200 innings in left, so he’s at least going to feel familiar with whichever outfield slot he plays.
While he’s long shown above-average power — career .216 ISO, career-high 31 homers back in 2019, five seasons of 20-plus homers — Grichuk’s offensive value is regularly undercut by his distaste for walks. He’s drawn a free pass in just 5.6% of his career plate appearances, resulting in a lifetime OBP under .300 (.296).
That said, it may be a limited skill set, but Grichuk shines in one particular area: tormenting left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .330/.394/.596 against lefties in 2023 and is a career .266/.314/.503 hitter in such situations.
Grichuk is a bit more affordable than Renfroe, is having a much better season against lefties, and can play center in a pinch, so he may hold more appeal. That same group of the Giants, D-backs, Twins, Reds and Brewers could all use help against southpaws. The Giants are deep in right-handed outfielders though, and the D-backs have Pham to fill a similar role. The Reds and Twins could look at Grichuk for the same reasons they might consider Renfroe, and the Brewers could look at him as a boost against lefties who’d take some pressure off struggling Tyrone Taylor and young Sal Frelick.
If baseball has a lick of sense this rule will be drastically different next year.
Now a team can add an important cog to their team that might literally be the difference between a non playoff team and World Series title and their only skill was being given an early opportunity to pick up one of these guys.
It’s simply not right.
@Halo11fan…Personally, I think MLB may have been caught off guard(I know I was)by the unexpected release of so many still useful players all at once. I do expect MLB to enact rules or format changes so that this does not occur in future years. In the meantime, relax and enjoy it, because I myself have never seen anything like it, in over 50 years of watching MLB.
Relax is probably the wrong word. It diminishes the prize and I have a large issue with things that are not fair.
Remember they changed the catch rule from being able to take it out of the glove to actually taking it out of the glove.
It caught them off guard and baseball adjusted almost immediately.
Are you an Angel fan? In 1979, Moore facing Lowestein and not Montigue. In 1982. Moore facing Cooper and not Hassler. In 1986, Moore facing Gedman and not Lucas.
Three seasons are completely changed. This is bad for baseball and will be changed.
Halo11Fan: manfred won’t change any rule unless it takes at least 6.4 seconds off the time of a game.
I got to admit this was genius of these teams! Eliminating the waiver trade deadline sucked, this is teams flipping the bird to Manfred for doing that. Plus if Angels luck out they pay no penalty for salaries, I give them a big high 5 for beating the system, they’re usually not a smart club
I don’t get the gripe honestly. Manfred didn’t create August waivers. The CBA negotiations led to the inability to negotiate trades in August, true. But a waiver claim at this time of year, before Sept 1, could lead to a player being dumped to a WS contender for just cash, based on positioning in some capacity, for as long as I can remember
How does it diminish the prize lol
How is this any different than adding someone at the deadline?
Great they beat the system! Now if they could figure out how to beat enough teams to make the playoffs.
Because it removes the give to get strategy. A team doesn’t have to give anything up.
If people think this is the same, they don’t get it. Teams use to claim people on waivers just to prevent them from being traded.
Now the only skill is being one game back. Did people really have this little understanding of baseball?
I don’t think hanging on to the fringe of the playoff picture to try and pick up cast off players is going to be a big strategy going forward
This is not flipping Manfred the bird.
It is a smart move
This is the point I don’t see people mentioning – it creates interest. There’s stuff going on. Stuff to talk about.
That said. Moving the trade deadline back to mid or late August and attaching the playoff eligibility deadline to it, seems like a reasonable thing to do
@mlb fan, you have seen it. Teams have always been able to place players on waivers after the deadline. Even if the receiving team had to trade assets in the past, it didn’t stop the Astros from awarding Verlander after the deadline
mlb fan — It seems to me that the conditions of the claim needs to change. ie once a team picks up a player, they can’t pick up another until everyone else passes on that player. Cleveland just brought in 3 extremely useful players. I don’t fault Mark Shapiro (Guardians GM) but it does seem the rules need to be tweaked.
Important cog? That’s laughable. These players at best are guys to fill out the bench or platoon. Most of have contracts teams won’t touch too like Renfroe. The Angels added them and most of them were awful in their limited time. This waiver period will hardly impact the playoffs races at all.
If Renfroe is an improvement over what a team has, I don’t think $2M should stop any team from claiming him. What is the added income from hosting a playoff game?
I disagree. Both Renfoe and Moore are difference makers. Stats don’t tell the entire story and had you watched them perform this entire season you would understand this.
The players that were brought over during the trade deadline were not better than the injured players that they were brought over to replace but were a better option than the players available in the minor league system. It is unfortunate that most of them instead of performing equally as well as their performance before the trade deadline instead dramatically fell off. They just didn’t adjust well and I can understand how you wouldn’t see the value in them.
I never said that they had no value. The original comment talked about how these guys were going to be the difference in playoff races and based on their performances this season they clearly will not. Doesn’t mean they don’t have value but one month of Hunter Renfroe will not make or break Cincinnatis chances
A rule change would most likely have to happen in the next CBA, so we’ll get a few more years to judge if teams keep trying this strategy
“In the next CBA”…Have you watched Manfred the last few years?…He pretty much changes rules and concepts whenever he pleases. Some things do have to be done by CBA, but the last few years have shown, the commissioner can change many things unilaterally with or without the MLBPA.
MLB might not like it, but are we sure? With waiver priority going in reverse order of standings, perhaps MLB likes the additional parity.
and it’s not like a team would tank to improve waiver priority. none of these dudes is worth 1 win in a month.
@deep many of these players are worth one win in a month especially in Sept. 1 win can b difference in getting a wild card spot or not.
Tigers: 1 win per month is a 6 WAR player. Which of these players is a 6 WAR player?
Right makes no sense
Like Grichuks career
@Halo11fan: I don’t see the billionaires changing any rule that allows them a chance at saving money.
This is absolutely correct. It’s like an expansion draft with an all-you-can-eat buffet. And to add to that, a number of these players are good–and when you subtract them from a team that was marginal but could at least complete, they give away those good players, and finish out their schedule weaker than they were before this. This is an unfair advantage to teams lucky enough to get them later in the season.
Similarly, they should do away with injuries for the same reason. And off days,
It’s not fair that some teams have to face Garret Cole and others get to face Luis Severino.
I see you disagree…..
There’s nothing new about this. Lots of contracts have traded hands this way for a long time. The circumstances of having only one deadline two months from the end of the season and having so many postseason spots might make this more prevalent.
I think it’s good for baseball if more teams hold onto players at the deadline and continue to try to win. Taking away their ability to shift gears later and move contracts would be a disincentive to that.
Plus, do these middle class players on expiring contracts really want to ride the bench in deference to less established players auditioning for roles for next season in meaninglessness games down the stretch or would they rather have a chance to play high stakes ball for a team that wants them?
I’m not seeing who is harmed by this.
Although there is no revocable waivers with trades anymore, this has always been how waiver priorities has been since waivers became a thing. It used to be very common for teams to put guys on revocable waivers and claiming teams took a chance on having to take on the guy’s salary. The Red Sox used to put Manny Ramirez on waivers every year. Some teams would put most of their team on waivers.
Reds should be all over Bader; they desperately need an outfielder that can hit left handed pitching & one whose a plus fielder would be a huge bonus….
Bader is one of the finest fielders I’ve ever seen, but in reality he’s just fool’s gold, because he’ll always be injured whenever you need him most. You just cannot rely on Harrison Bader.
Bader has future Pittsburg Pirate written all over him.
What the Reds really need is a left-handed bat, with Fraley and Votto both out possibly for the rest of the season. They should be in on the pitching (Giolito) but none of the position players is a great fit for them.
They got Bader and Renfroe
Renfroe:Jays
I’ve been saying the same thing. The Jays need some pop in their lineup & Renfroe gives them that. The Toronto bench hasn’t been good all season
He won’t get to them.
No one was going to claim Anderson with that horrible contract.
Buyers remorse set in pretty quickly on that one. I wonder how many other teams were in the bidding for his services. Dodgers made no effort to keep him, and for that reason the Angels should not have given him more than 2 years.
As soon as that he was signing with the Angels, I said it was a bad signing
The Angels should DFA Rendon, fire the entire coaching staff and the GM should resign. That would be a fresh start.
Why DFA him? They’re going to have to pay him either way for 3 more years
The best play from a cost perspective is to keep playing him, hope he catches lightning in a bottle for half a season and you can talk some desperate team for a recognizable star name into paying ~30%? Better than nothing.
Naturally, this is only true for as long as he is “trying” to return to be a shadow of his former self. If the effort isn’t there, that’s a new conversation
What happened to Rendon? Was there some major tragedy in his life? I’ve never seen anyone make such a hard shift from world class productive human into such an obviously self serving hypochondriac. Is he in addiction treatment or something? Does he have some cunning and baffling disease?
All respect and love for him. I’m seriously concerned.
At this point, a guy like Rendon is bad for the clubhouse. I wouldn’t want him anywhere near my young players.
I wonder if one of the fringe teams will scoop up multiple players?
Can they even? I haven’t got any clarity on that.
Yes. They can. One team could claim, and be awarded, every player placed on waivers
Cleveland needs a RH hitting run producer. They can still catch the Twins. The AL Central is pathetic.
They have a losing record so they should be able to claim on waivers before some of the other teams mentioned.
Don’t know if they have the money.
I think their new minority partner should buy them renfroe to play right and end Gonzalez experiment. Naylor takes the roster expansion slot and fry replaces a catcher. Renfroe, calhoun and lauriano is not the way Cleveland likes to go but a new look lineup with an outfield of kwan renroe and lauriano and calhoun as the DH could be interesting.
Yes Girachk would be a better bat and right fielder than Oscar Gonzalez to platoon with Will Brennan but we also know how cheap Dolan is so….
I’d like to see my Phillies take Renfroe or Grichuk. We could use a RH bat in LF and off the bench. Adding either one would make Jake Cave unnecessary, and that’s a good thing.
Hilarious the outrage over these garbage players being dropped, pretending teams just put Trout, Harper and Judge out there for the taking or something, when in reality these are end of bench/depth guys at BEST for the true contenders. Not that much of a difference had those contenders traded for these garbage pieces at the trade deadline to begin with.
Chill.
The Roman Circus.
It’s not the money in many cases, it really is can you drop a player off your 40 man roster? Some teams may use the 60 day IL, others will release guys instead of waiting for season’s end and other will have to set loose a low level prospect. All depends on the odds of making the playoffs.
Without a doubt Bader is one of the finest defensive center fielders in the game but explain to me how he makes sense for the Cubs? Also how the author has the Cubs below average defensively in the outfield when Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are all above average defenders, as is fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman.
No offense to Bader who would certainly upgrade almost any teams outfield, the Cubs do not make any sense what so ever. If they wanted to improve their defense, that’s already really good, they would call up PCA.
Renfroe would be a better fit for the Cubs, he’d basically replace Patrick Wisdom as a bench bat. But I don’t see them going barely over the luxury tax threshold for that little bit of improvement.
Padres are already IN the third luxury tax tier. If all these players cost them is $ then why not?
All mediocre players most of them overpaid by a lot
Not sure how the Jays weren’t mentioned for any of the 3 outfielders, who would all be bench upgrades over what they currently have
There should never be a comma before “too.” Come on, Adams.