Heading into the 2023 season, most fans would’ve expected the NL East to contain at least three legitimate playoff contenders. Few, however, pegged that trio to include the Braves, Phillies and … the Marlins. Conventional wisdom said that the Mets’ $350MM+ payroll, the Braves’ perennial excellence and the Phillies’ 2022 World Series appearance made them the teams to watch in the division. But, here are the Marlins, sitting 60-56 on Aug. 9 and tied with the Cubs for a share of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Much of that success has been attributable to Miami’s strong showing in one-run games. At 26-10 in such contests, the Marlins have been baseball’s best team by a wide margin. Their .722 winning percentage in one-run contests leads the Brewers (21-10, .677) and Orioles (20-11, .645) and is rather comfortably the best in the game. Heck, as I was writing this, the Marlins won another one-run game, thanks to some late heroics from deadline acquisition Josh Bell and the underrated Bryan De La Cruz.
There are certain traits that make a team likely to compete and succeed in large number of closely contested games. A lineup that struggles to score runs in bulk and is heavily reliant on station-to-station baseball — as if the case in Miami — is bound to play in a lot of close games. That’s been an apt description of the Marlins so far in 2023; they entered play Wednesday 26th in MLB with 465 runs scored and 27th with 106 home runs.
A strong bullpen that’s capable of holding the too-often narrow leads afforded to the pitching staff is also a key factor in mastering one-run victories. Again, that’s been the case in Miami for much of the season. While the Marlins shook up their bullpen prior to the deadline, swapping out Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez (an exchange of struggling change-of-scenery candidates) and trading a pair of prospects for David Robertson, the Marlins have generally had a solid relief corps in 2023. Or rather, they’ve had a strong top half of a top-heavy bullpen. Adding Robertson to help deepen the group makes the team better, to be sure, but Miami was already had a strong bullpen group thanks in large part to a quartet of left-handers whom they acquired at virtually no cost.
Chief among that group is hard-throwing 29-year-old Tanner Scott. Long one of the most touted arms in the Orioles’ farm system, Scott was traded to Miami alongside righty Cole Sulser just before Opening Day 2022. The O’s deserve plenty of credit for the team they’ve put together, but this swap is probably one that Baltimore GM Mike Elias would like back. The Fish landed Scott and Sulser in a trade that sent a trio of low-level minor leaguers — Kevin Guerrero, Antonio Velez and Yaqui Rivera — to the Orioles. None of that trio ranks among the Orioles’ top 30 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs.
Sulser has already departed the Marlins organization — the D-backs claimed him on waivers last November — but Scott has emerged as one of the best lefties in the game. His power arsenal was always tantalizing, but Scott’s lack of command continually proved frustrating for the O’s. That continued into the 2022 season, his first in Miami, but the 2023 campaign has been another story. After logging a 4.31 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate and ghastly 15.9% walk rate last year, Scott is now touting a 2.80 ERA, a 36.4% strikeout rate and a vastly improved 10% walk rate. Yes, it’s still too many free passes, but he’s improved it as the season has gone on. Over his past 32 frames, Scott has walked only 7% of his opponents.
Scott entered play Wednesday with a mammoth 17.2% swinging-strike rate and 36.2% chase rate — and that’s before he struck out the side against the Reds in this afternoon’s inning of work. There are only three pitchers in baseball who’ve thrown 50-plus innings and have a higher swinging-strike rate. Scott isn’t working in low-leverage mop-up settings, either. He’s piled up 22 holds and a pair of saves, and only four qualified relievers top him in terms of win probability added (WPA). The Fish are paying him a bargain $2.825MM this season and control him through the 2024 season.
Many clubs would be thrilled to simply have one quality southpaw of this caliber, but the Marlins are deeper than any club in MLB when it comes to lefty relievers. Scott might be the biggest name of the bunch, but the Fish are swimming (sorry, sorry) in quality southpaws. Andrew Nardi might be the most anonymous member of the group, but he’s been nothing short of outstanding this season.
A former 16th-round pick by Miami, Nardi had an inauspicious MLB debut in 2022, pitching 14 2/3 innings but allowing 16 runs in that time. Few fans looked at him and saw a breakout candidate, but in 39 2/3 innings this year, he’s sporting a 2.95 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. He’s been limited by a triceps injury this summer but was reinstated from the IL earlier this month and is back working in a high-leverage capacity. Since picking up his first big league save back on May 7, he’s pitched to a 1.80 ERA with a 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 25 innings. He’s grabbed eight holds and a pair of saves along the way — and both numbers would be higher had he not spent a month on the injured list in that span.
Nardi’s 14.3% swinging-strike rate is excellent, and his 35% chase rate is even better. Virtually no one can square up the ball against the 24-year-old; he sits in the 99th percentile of big league pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in overall hard-hit rate. Nardi doesn’t even have a year of Major League service yet, so the Marlins can control him all the way through the 2028 season, and he won’t even reach arbitration until after the 2025 campaign.
There’s also 32-year-old Steven Okert to consider — a gem unearthed in minor league free agency. The left-hander came to Miami on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason and, at the time, had just 48 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball under his belt — all coming from 2016-18 with the Giants. In three seasons with Miami, Okert has graduated from a generic depth signing to a stalwart member of a talented relief corps. He’s logged 129 1/3 innings with a 2.85 ERA since relocating to South Florida, punching out 30% of his opponents against a 10.6% walk rate.
Again, the walks are a bit too high, but it should be noted that Okert has boosted his strikeout rate to a career-high 33.5% in 2023 while dropping his walk rate to 9% — his lowest mark in three years with the Fish. His velocity has ticked up each season, and the Marlins have scrapped three of his five pitches, turning him solely into a four-seam/slider reliever. Okert pitches more in the middle innings than Scott and Nardi, but he’s still picked up 10 holds. The results are outstanding, and he can be controlled cheaply for three years beyond the current season. Not too shabby for someone signed to a minor league deal three offseasons ago.
Left-hander A.J. Puk might be the most recognizable name of the bunch, thanks to both his lofty draft status (No. 6 overall in 2016) and his inclusion in a reasonably high-profile trade this offseason (sending former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday back to Oakland). Puk’s 4.62 ERA is by far the least impressive of the group, but the underlying numbers are far more impressive. He’s fanned 30.9% of his opponents against just a 4.9% walk rate while recording a swinging-strike rate just shy of 15%. Puk had a sub-3.00 ERA himself in early June before a rough patch that saw him allow runs in six of nine appearances. He’s since rebounded with four straight scoreless outings, whiffing five hitters without issuing a walk in 3 1/3 innings.
Puk has been hampered by a .337 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 63.1% strand rate, prompting metric like FIP (3.41) and SIERA (2.66) to cast a far more favorable light on the lefty than his earned run average does. Puk certainly wasn’t flawless in serving as the Marlins’ primary closer — 15-for-21 in save opportunities — and that, coupled with his rough stretch last month, might have nudged Miami to acquire Robertson. That said, lefties who average 96 mph don’t grow on trees, and Puk’s blend of elite strikeout and walk rates signals better days ahead.
In fact, Marlins relievers as a whole are among the best in baseball when it comes to both piling up strikeouts and limiting free passes. Each of the four lefties profiled here rank in the top 10 of all qualified relievers in terms of differential between strikeout rate and walk rate (i.e. K-BB%). The Marlins are sixth in all of baseball as a collective group in that category, and adding Robertson for the final two months of the season should help them out.
There are plenty of reasons for the Marlins’ success this season. Luis Arraez’s surefire batting title, big steps forward from Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, a dominant debut season from Eury Perez and a rebound effort from Jorge Soler have all helped drive this unlikely playoff push. But heading into the season, few would’ve pegged the Marlins to receive this type of output from their left-handed bullpen corps. Add in the fact that they came to the organization via a minor league deal, a 16th-round pick, and trades sending out three marginal prospects and a former first-rounder who’s still struggling in Oakland — and the core of this bullpen is even more impressive. They’ll all return for the 2024 season at least, and with Robertson helping lead the charge down the stretch in ’23, the Marlins will continue to be dangerous in tightly contested games.
Huh! Maybe Kim Ng isn’t so stupid after all. Though you’d never think that from most comments.
“Kim Ng isn’t so stupid”..I come to this site regularly and have never seen anyone suggest that Kim Ng is “stupid”. Just the usual GM criticisms of every fan base, some real some imagined. I think YOU might be the only one, that believes Kim Ng is “stupid” and you are arguing your own made up point.
Same, I don’t think Ive seen anyone really have a problem with the moves she’s made.
While none of the prospects did anything, Marlins traded a comp pick near the 1st round for Scott. You better get a decent RP if you trade an asset like that
When they miss the playoffs to the Cubs, we’ll come back to this comment.
Good point @briar. Besides the Cubs are due needed after two playoffs series exits by the Fish
Good point @briar. Besides the Cubs are due esp after two playoffs series exits by the Fish
If it comes down to the final week of the season i like the Marlins chances better than the Cubs. Both are on the road but the Cubs have to go to Atlanta and Milwaukee for the final 6 games while the Marlins go to New York to play the Mets and finish up in Pittsburgh
This was a pretty good article. Had some nice logic that went a bit against the oversimplified thinking of many in regards to one-run games (tho I’m sure there is some luck involved too). I love people thinking more deeply about things (interestingly this has become a problem in people who use advanced stats just as those advanced stats came about to correct the problem of extremely narrow thinking).Marlins have built an impressive group of pitchers, for sure.
The Marlins are just LOADED with pitching, even the prospect they gave up to get Robertson, Jake Eder was well on his way to being a solid #2-#3 SP before his injury.
Plus, to even acquire Arraez, they also traded away a very reliable MOR SP in Pablo Lopez.
Then, if you look in their MiL, the Marlins only have several more quality ML caliber pitchers. As a Braves fan, it’s a bit scary lol…
Honestly, if they even had a league average offense, in terms of scoring runs, they’d likely be only a game or two behind the Braves.
I just don’t know how the Marlins are going to manage their payroll, so it is difficult to say whether they’re going to have to continue recycling their pitchers and replacing guys from within when their big guns get expensive, or of they can afford to trade away some of their pitching prospects to I prove their big league club.
If ownership will give Ng the green light to spend some in free agency, then they could fill in a hole or two pretty easily.
The Marlins aren’t far away from building a perennial playoff team and a real contender in the NL, and it won’t be long before they’ll be contending for titles if they can add a couple bats to improve their offense.
This is why you rebuild with pitching!! Pitchers are a crazy shoot whether they’ll make it to the show or not, but they’re alot more valuable on the market. Pitching just costs more to acquire, and even failed pitchers with a high pedigree teams will still want because they think they can either fix them or use them as weapons out of their pen…
I’m just glad to see the Marlins finally getting their due, people act like they weren’t just in the playoffs, and it is some miracle what they’ve done lol
Anyone who has been following the Fish the past three to four years knew their time was coming eventually. I think it was only just three years ago they had like 7-8 SP in their system that each lead their leagues in either preventing runs or strikeouts. The Marlins are here to stay..
Some organizations are mostly good at developing/scouting pitchers and others specialize in position players. They know most of their pitchers better than anyone else and could pinpoint the ones to trade like Atlanta and flip them for hitters. The Arraez deal was really important for them. They need him so much more than they needed Lopez. I think they were a bit hesitant to spend coming into the year after the previous off-season acquisitions didn’t work out well (but now Soler has really gotten on track). What’s a shame is that the attendance is so low. Going forward will be interesting to see from a financial and attendance perspective. They alienated some fans and it’s a legit concern that baseball in Miami is simply not as profitable as it should probably be. There is another team in the state, there are Braves fans there, there are likely people paying attention to Caribbean and Mexican leagues. And it may simply just not be a big baseball city. I don’t know for sure
I think the Os are ok without Tanner Scott and Cole Sulzer. The latter wouldn’t be on the 40 man roster and the former would be battling Perez and Baker for the 6th inning role. Mostly Scott was a guy in need of a change of scenery
It really doesn’t matter if they are left handed or right handed, as long as they do the job out of the bullpen. The Marlins have assembled a good group.
The marlins will prob end up on the better side of the deal l, given that Scott has finally produced, but you omitted the best part of the return. The Comp B pick and the slot money that pick contained. O’s took Jud Fabian w/ that selection.
I hope he’s finally ironed it out but he was not the guy I wanted on the mound in a tight game. Would just lose the ability to throw a strike. & Relievers in general are notoriously volatile. We’ll see if he replicates his success next season. But I’m shocked they got him too this year.
To*
I guess we’ll see if they can get Jorge back in line too. If not—he might wanna give Elias a call and see if he’ll take him back in the off-season.
This article is very embarrassing for MLBTR and it’s not the first time. Scott and Sulser were NOT traded for the 3 marginal guys listed. They were traded for a CB pick, which turned out to be No. 67, Jud Fabian, who is at AA and is a Top 15 Os prospect and on the fringe of Top 100. The players were throw ins.
A collossal research failure. The Os do not regret that trade. Im happy for Tanner scotf, but he would not have survived on the Os roster anyway.
. I don’t know if you looked but Fabian is K’ing at about a 40% rate in AA. He’s not going on any top 100 lists anytime soon.
Tanner couldn’t throw strikes. It took the Marlins awhile to get him to this point. The O’s probably don’t have Cionel Perez or Danny Coulombe if they kept Scott. Perez was great last year and Coulombe was great this year. I think it worked out fine for both parties. Marlins have a slight edge at the moment if Scott keeps this up. But if Scott reverses course and Fabian bounces back—whole narrative can flip.
I just don’t see Miami. They have played way over their heads. Although I think Robertson makes them better they really needed a bat and Burger is basically adding another Soler. Jazz their young star can’t stay on the field. As well as they pitch they don’t score enough. But who knows if Bell goes off for the rest of the way or something like that they might sneak in. I just think Arizona and Cincy are more talented. And whoever doesn’t win out west. I don’t see the Cubs either.
Why the hell is MLBTR writing about these guys? They can’t be traded anytime soon and the article mentions nothing about extensions. Their agents must be paying MLBTR off to generate some buzz for them on the market. Just another shill piece trying to pass off as something novel while only regurgitating stats.
On top of that, it’s an Adams piece so it’s terribly written. Here comes the laundry list…
“But, here are the Marlins, sitting 60-56…”
Should be “but here are the Marlins, sitting 60-56.” Adams’ comma fetish strikes again, adding one where it’s not needed or correct. Then there’s this gem…
“as if the case in Miami”
I once heard Adams say “me fail English? That’s unpossible.” To wit….
“Yes, it’s still too many free passes, but he’s improved it as the season has gone on…”
Do you know how basic grammar works? You say his walk rate, then say “it’s too many free passes” when it should be “that’s too many free passes.” Write in proper English, you hack.
“Scott isn’t working in low-leverage mop-up settings, either.”
A comma is NEVER needed before “either.” This is just wrong. Learn this basic rule already, Adams.
“The left-hander came to Miami on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason and, at the time, had just 48 1/3 innings…”
Another instance of this hack having no clue how to use a comma. It should NEVER go after the word “and.”
The proper way to write the above is “the left-hander came to Miami on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason and at the time, had just 48 1/3 innings…” OR “the left-hander came to Miami on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason, and at the time had just 48 1/3 innings…” There should only be ONE comma, and it should NOT be before “and.” Two commas in the sentence is straight-up wrong and unnecessary. Stop paying this hack, MLBTR.