The deadline swap that saw the Marlins and Guardians exchange Jean Segura and Josh Bell was generally viewed as an exchange of bad contracts. The Marlins were getting the more productive hitter of the two, though that wasn’t saying much. Bell hit .233/.318/.383 as a member of the Guardians after signing a two-year, $33MM deal in the offseason. Segura hit just .219/.277/.279 with Miami after signing his own two-year deal (worth $17MM) and was immediately released by Cleveland. The Guards used the trade to effectively purchase former first-round pick Kahlil Watson from Miami, who sold low on the former top prospect and took on some cash as a means of adding some life to the lineup.
Bell has absolutely exploded in South Florida, however. He turned in below-average offense during his time with Cleveland but has mashed at a .271/.351/.586 pace in a still-small sample of 97 Marlins plate appearances. The eight dingers he’s swatted with the Marlins is already nearly as many as the 11 he totaled in more than quadruple the plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s not as though Bell simply moved to a bandbox either; Miami’s loanDepot Park has been the fourth-worst for home runs over the past three seasons, per Statcast.
The switch-hitting Bell looked wholly unremarkable in more than three months with the Guardians but has not only been one of the National League’s best hitters since the trade — he’s had one of the best months of his entire career. So, what gives? This is perhaps an oversimplification, but the Marlins have succeeded where basically no other club has to date: Bell is finally hitting the ball in the air. A lot. The 45.2% fly-ball rate he’s posted this month is the first month in his entire career that he’s posted a fly-ball rate that high.
The change, however, began well before Bell was traded to Miami. Whether the Marlins keyed in on this or merely jumped at the opportunity to purge Segura’s contract isn’t clear, but the numbers are pretty easy to see. Bell entered the current season with a 50% ground-ball rate in his career and just a 31.9% fly-ball rate — a ridiculous number for a 6’4″, 261-pound first baseman. Bell has never had good speed, and the idea that half of his career batted balls have been beaten into the ground is counterintuitive. He’s far from the only should-be slugger with this type of problem — Eric Hosmer is also a member of this club, for instance — but Bell’s penchant for grounders has regularly undercut his well above-average bat-to-ball skills and what’s clearly above-average or even plus raw power. This is a player who bashed 37 home runs in 2019, after all. Juiced ball or not — that’s a big number.
A look at Bell’s month-to-month splits this year reveals some familiar trends. In April he put a ridiculous 62.3% of his batted balls on the ground, against a 28.6% fly-ball rate. In May, it was 51.6% and 26.6% (with a noted uptick in line drives). If you look in late May, Bell had a stretch of five games where he didn’t hit a single fly-ball. He hit three line drives, and the other 81.8% of his balls in play were grounders. Whether this was a wakeup call or the beginning of Bell trying to make a conscious adjustment, things began to change.
In June, Bell’s fly-ball rate jumped to 37%. In July, it climbed a notch higher, to 38.4%. It’s up to 45.2% in August, and Bell is absolutely mashing. Those might sound like arbitrary numbers, and to some extent they are. However, using that arbitrary 37% cutoff point (his June 2023 fly-ball rate), I scanned back through Bell’s monthly splits for his entire career. He’s only had a monthly fly-ball rate of 37% four times in his career … all coming in 2019, when he hit 37 home runs and posted his career-best .277/.367/.569 batting line.
The results weren’t necessarily there as Bell began elevating the ball more regularly. From May 28 (the first day after that stretch of five games with no fly balls), Bell hit .251/.309/.440. That’s only about seven percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+, but it’s a massive improvement over the .215/.327/.326 slash he produced while pounding an incredible (not in a good way) 59.7% of his batted balls into the ground. At the very least, Bell looked like a hitter on the upswing due to a tangible change in his approach. The Marlins might’ve hoped they were acquiring that somewhat above-average hitter, but Bell has been much, much more than that in Miami. He’s been 50% better than the league-average hitter since being traded.
Of course, it’s an open question whether Bell can sustain this pace. He had four months of fly-ball production in 2019 and then quickly reverted back to the grounder-happy plodder who has often looked on the cusp of stardom but never sustained his pace. It’s encouraging, however, that he’s reeled off three straight months of this fly-ball approach. Even in his career year in 2019, he still posted a 46% grounder rate from July through August. This year, in that same span, he’s at 39.7%. This current stretch is the least grounder-driven span of Bell’s career.
Bell spoke to Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald about his surge at the plate in Miami, attributing plenty of the success to the manner in which hitting coach Brant Brown preps for games with hitters.
“We watch video together and decide there how the attack plan is going to go and I can work on that in batting practice and it tends to show up in the games,” said Bell, who called Brown’s prep work with Marlins hitters “advanced.” Bell also spoke favorably of loanDepot Park, noting that while the dimensions are pitcher-friendly, the consistency from playing in a stadium with a roof can be advantageous. “With the turf, and with the consistency of the dome, you’ve got the same lighting every inning, every at-bat, and it’s easy to get hits.”
Bell noted to the Herald that his focus has been simply on hitting line drives, but it seems those efforts have translated more into fly balls than the intended liners. His 12.9% line-drive rate with the Fish is actually lower than it was in Cleveland (19%) by a wide margin. Bell is simply elevating the ball at a strong, albeit not elite rate. His 45.2% fly rate since the trade ranks 35th of 173 hitters (80th percentile). But Bell is a big man with plenty of power; when he elevates the ball, good things happen.
Bell’s surge has been a boon for the Marlins and also creates a fascinating scenario to watch down the stretch. If he can continue putting the ball in the air close to this frequently and continue to produce at well above-average levels, the player option he once looked like a lock to exercise could become a borderline call — or, with a strong enough finish, a relatively easy one to decline. The upcoming free agent class is light on hitters, and Bell is flat out raking thanks to a noticeable change in his batted-ball profile. This version of Bell would fetch far more than $16.5MM in free agency, particularly since he can’t be saddled with a qualifying offer and thus won’t be tied to draft pick compensation.
If Bell does decline his player option, it’d wind up looking like a rather deft swap of contracts for the Marlins; at the time of the swap, Miami was effectively surrendering Watson and paying about $9.25MM ($3.25MM in ’23, $6MM in ’24) to upgrade from Segura to Bell. That sum would drop to just $3.25MM in added salary if Bell opts out — all of it coming in 2023 — and a hefty $10.5MM of savings beyond the current season. The Marlins would be off the hook entirely next year, while the Guards would remain on the hook for Segura’s $8.5MM salary and $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2025. It’s doubtful even Marlins GM Kim Ng and her staff expected Bell to perform this well early on, but their ostensible bet on Bell’s change in approach is already a boost to the team’s playoff hopes and now has the possibility to provide substantial payroll benefit in the future.
Reynaldo
“Josh Bell has arrived / peaked / reached his potential”
“Does the Marlins have a 1B surplus???”
mlb1225
This is just what Josh Bell does. One half of the season is mediocre, the other half is pretty good. This would be like the 5th or 6th time he’s done this. He even did this in the shortened 60 game 2020.
eriemarty
Was that way after washington traded him to SD.
Good in washington. Underperforming with padres
layventsky
As a Guardians fan, it was pretty frustrating to see the bad half during his time in CLE, then go figure he’s slugging with Miami of all teams.
RonDarlingShouldntBeInTheHallOfFame
Exactly @mlb. He’s ALWAYS been a guy who looks like an all star for a month or two, then hit .175 over his next 100 abs. One of the most up and down players I’ve ever seen.
mlb1225
2019 was his best season, but Bell played like three different players every two months:
April-May: 1.109 OPS
June-July: .766 OPS
August-September: .892 OPS
It’s pretty much been like that for years:
2017 first half: .793 OPS
2017 second half: .809 OPS
2018 first half: .738 OPS
2018 second half: .823 OPS
2020 first 30 games: .592 OPS
2020 second 30 games: .759 OPS
2021 first half: .756 OPS
2021 second half: .887 OPS
2022 first half: .890 OPS
2022 second half: .607 OPS
2023 first half: .701 OPS
2023 second half so far: .846 OPS
He’s consistent, and only good for about half a year at a time. It’s so weird. So far, 2017 is the only year of his career that he hasn’t had a difference of at 85 or more points in first half OPS to second half OPS.
brooklyn62
If Dan Vogelslug had Josh Bell’s shoulders, he might look proportionate.
mlb fan
According to govt research studies Daniel Vogelbach should be over 11 feet tall at his weight, which is estimated at over 2700 pounds.
Florida=WorldsBiggestToilet
That’s a greater vogelbach. Those went extinct years ago. Mets are trotting out lesser vogelbach. Cloned from frozen remains.
Hemlock
…and then Josh Bell got put on waivers, too.
Yanks2
Bell is almost positively on steroids. Anyone see his press conference with the Padres last trade deadline with Soto? His forearms were ginormous; Bell, not Soto
MarlinsFanBase
Funny to see a Yankees fan say this considering that your team has both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton – two of the most obvious PED users in the game.
But don’t worry, Jeter gifted Stanton to your team.
Yanks2
Lol G and Judge have literally nothing to do with whether or not Josh Bell takes steroids. What kind of logic is that lmao
MarlinsFanBase
I didn’t say they did have anything with Josh using PEDs. It’s just I find it funny that a Yankees fan would be talking about this topic considering that the two most obvious PED users in the game are Yankees players – Judge and Giancarlo.
MarlinsFanBase
I mean, you’re talking about Josh’s forearms when you can see Judge and Giancarlo’s entire builds are clearly PED-built. Heck, even their jaws have muscle on muscle on muscle on muscle.
layventsky
But do they have muscles on their eyeballs?
MarlinsFanBase
@Rocky07
Easy to make comments when you block someone from commenting back before you make your comment. Brave dude.
And guess what…Stanton has never been linked to PEDs either. But any moron (to use your word) can look at those two and see it. They are the most obvious users in the game…and I felt this when Stanton played for us.
And FYI to the naive…just because a guy can pass MLB’s testing does not mean that he’s clean. It just means that whatever he’s using isn’t detectable by the testing or that what he’s using, MLBPA has not agreed to MLB testing for it.
And to close with your ingenius assessment and defense of Judge, Alex Rodriguez never failed a PED test. Neither did Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Roger Clemens, and many other known PED users.
Get off your man-crush, hero-worship and look at reality, You’re starting to sound like Judge’s biggest knob-polisher, Mike Axisa, to the point you sound like his burner account.
MarlinsFanBase
@layventsky
I wouldn’t be surprised if they do. But would it cause them x-ray vision, which would be good for them.
layventsky
@MarlinsFanBase My comment was a reference to SpongeBob, and apparently no one got it.
ROCKY07
Since when has Judge EVER been linked as taking steroids ….moron comment idiot!
MarlinsFanBase
Well, aside from Bell, here we go again with pitchers making stupid pitches with Stallings behind the plate, and getting jacked.
Definitely something to this with Stallings. He’s toast.
kma
Brant Brown…oh NOOO!
C Yards Jeff
Well traveled . Time to settle down? Seems to like it there in Miami. Even if he continues to excel, betcha he stays.
eriemarty
Cleveland signed him to a 2 year players option deal.
C Yards Jeff
Yep and Josh can decline that option if he so chooses.
FossSellsKeys
Wow. The Surrender Gourdians of Surrender, Ohio even managed to F up surrendering!! Horrific.
Gator Bait
Took 2 of 3 from Minnesota, I don’t think its over yet to be honest.
tigers2022
276.. good but not like he’s setting the world on fire? 4 more hits out of 100 at bats than his previous team? Lol. Bad article
Michael Chaney
You’re completely missing the point if you think this is to highlight his batting average
nailz#4life
I had a feeling the CLE signing would not go well for him or that team. Seems like he plays well when it really doesn’t matter… hence I don’t see the Fish making the playoffs.
MarlinsFanBase
Um, so he struggled with a team that reached the point of selling at the trade deadline, then goes to a team that has been in playoff position while he’s been there, and hits, but your assessment is that he plays well when it really doesn’t matter? Yeah, your assessment sounds logical…makes complete sense.
In nurse follars
All an argument against long term high dollar contracts. You pay for the fly ball masher and then live with the weak stick ground ball guy. But as we know, FO’s fall for the agent spin and get suckered time and time again.
Chris from NJ
Josh Bell has gotten hot since the trade. A player with over 3k career at bats is what they are. Bell is a .250/.350./.450 player who will get you 25 homers. The Marlins haven’t unlocked any unused potential in him. He will get paid on the open market if he opts out and the Marlins might be the fools to sign him. He fits the mold that Sherman allows Ng to sign Soler,Garcia, Dickerson etc. Maybe they should look to develop to improve the farm. It’s pretty barren since Perez,Cabrera,Jazz,and Broxton got called up and none of them have really set the world on fire. I saw them surge in July but knew they weren’t built to win and didn’t have to the wherewithal get what they needed to win.
rocky7
I guess ,239 to .271 is called exploding/mashing in todays MLB…..most comments from fans who have watched him call him the “streakiest” player they have seen in a long time….when he reverts back to the .240 hitter, will you still describe him as “mashing”
In todays MLB the almighty HR ball is king while hitting .240 or so, although I wouldn’t go as far s describing him as the next Hank Arron or Barry Bonds or even the next Judge….but who am I to question……
solaris602
Whatever he is, as a CLE fan I’m glad to see him elsewhere. The lack of consistency with this guy is maddening. Sure, it’s great when he’s producing like he is now, but in the wink of an eye he transforms into hitting weak dribblers to 2B when he isn’t striking out, and that can go on for weeks. I have no idea if Manzardo will prove to be any better, but I’m willing to take my chances.
Tribefan4life
That just figures doesn’t it. His presence in Cleveland was lackluster, only hitting the occasional home run. Now he’s hitting like he was with Pittsburgh. The Guardians just got the weak side of Bell.
But I Do
And how much of a kickback is Bell’s agent giving MLBTR by writing a stat-heavy piece ahead of his opt-out? This is not a free agency preview. It contains no rumors nor real speculation about transactions. It is not relevant to a rumor site. It is a feeble attempt to ape Fangraphs, but ultimately a failing one. Anyone can just regurgitate stats from Baseball Ref and Statcast. Without anything novel about transactions, this is not something that should be on MLBTR. Stay in your lane, MLBTR.