Left-hander Joely Rodriguez has been shut down due to continued discomfort in his hip, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MLB.com’s Ian Browne (Twitter link) and other reporters. Rodriguez has already been on the 15-day injured list since July 29 due to his hip problem, and Cora acknowledged that the southpaw might have thrown his last pitch of the 2023 campaign.
It has been an injury-marred year for Rodriguez, who has tossed only 11 innings in his first season in Boston. The lefty signed a one-year free agent deal last winter worth $2MM in guaranteed money, yet he suffered a Grade 2 oblique strain during Spring Training that delayed his season debut until May 17. Rodriguez then missed another month due to shoulder inflammation, returning to action on July 8 and appearing in six games before his latest IL stint.
There was quite a gulf in Rodriguez’s performance in between IL visits, as he had an ugly 18.00 ERA over his five games and four innings prior to his shoulder-related injury absence. In July, however, Rodriguez was much sharper, with seven scoreless innings and no walks over the six appearances before his hip injury sent him to the sidelines. It works out to a 6.55 ERA for the season, and Rodriguez might not get a chance to improve on that total if his hip problem does indeed result in a permanent shutdown.
Rodriguez’s contract contains a 2024 club option worth $4.25MM, or the Red Sox can buy out that option for $500K. Given the string of injuries, it certainly doesn’t seem like Boston will exercise that option, so Rodriguez is likely to be headed back to free agency. Entering his age-32 season and with an injury-riddled 2023 behind him, Rodriguez may have to settle for a minor league deal or another low-guarantee MLB contract on the open market this winter, even if he can make it back for a few more innings near the end of Boston’s season.
The Sox have been looking for left-handed relief options for much of the year due to Rodriguez’s frequent absences, but it seems as though they have landed on a pair of solid lefties in Brennan Bernardino and Chris Murphy. The bullpen as a whole got another boost today when Garrett Whitlock was activated from the 15-day IL, and Whitlock threw two scoreless innings and picked up the win in Boston’s 6-3 victory over the Tigers.
It was Whitlock’s first outing since July 3 due to a bout of right elbow inflammation, and the Sox plan to use him as a multi-inning reliever rather than a starter. Whitlock has been much more effective as a reliever than as a starter over the last three seasons, plus the Red Sox also have Tanner Houck lined up for starting duty when Houck returns from his own IL stint. Cora told Browne and company that Houck is slated to make one more minor league rehab start before being activated from the IL next week.
Red Sox have a 5.8% chance of making the postseason according to baseball reference, so I don’t think this is huge news.
ONly 3 games behind the Jays
I just checked Seattle’s schedule, who is also up 2.5 on us. They have 6 games against the Royals, 3 with Oakland. They’ll at least go 6 and 3 against those teams. Good luck having a better win/record over a nine game stretch than the Mariners and making up 2.5 games on them.
We can’t even sweep the easy teams, which is pretty much what we have to do to catch up.
And we play Astros twice, Dodgers, and Yankees. M’s look more poised for that spot than anyone else
Schedules don’t always play out the way we think they should. Remember 2011. I’m just happy the team has a chance. On another front Shreve was just cut by Detroit and he would be worth a shot to replace Rodriguez.
We can’t even sweep the easy teams
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Sweeping isn’t as easy as it seems. If we had a 75% chance of winning each game against KC, the chances of winning all 4 is still only 32%. If you were referring to Detroit, if we were again a 75% in each game, chances of a sweep are only 42%, and we are not close to 75% against ERod, Manning & Skubal.
Okay, fine, you are right, but there’s no excuse for losing 2 out of 3 to Oakland and getting swept by Toronto in a playoff race. Fans can be hopeful but the reality is we are behind and running out of time.
1-You are absolutely right. It is getting to the point where we can count the number of losses we can absorb, and it is surprisingly small. But it is small for TO as well.
2-IRT Oakland and the TO sweep, that’s just statistical noise. We were 12-1 against TO & the NYY at one point. No one could’ve foreseen that, but that’s what happens in BB.
It is just as easy to proclaim our dominance by saying we are 14-9 against 1st place teams, but that too is fairly meaningless.
“We can’t even sweep the easy teams, which is pretty much what we have to do to catch up.”
So all that counts is whether you can beat “easy teams”. What?
Seattle cant beat GOOD TEAMS (31-37), while the Red Sox can (38-33). I swear the haters search and search for angles to hate.
Last year the only thing that mattered was “Cant beat teams in their Division”. This year they are 16-14 inside the division, and its never brought up. I guess beating teams in your division is only important on Even Numbered Years.
This year the mantra is “Cant beat easy teams”. Doesnt matter if you have a winning record in your division, or against playoff teams.
This is idiocy at its finest.
Well, I think the new all around schedule is terrible, personally. Gives no power to divisions and the Centrals coast into the playoffs. If they’re going to make an all around schedule then at least make the six best teams advance, not based on division. Sox are better than the Twins any day.
I worded that wrong but keep in mind the Sox are beating winning teams.
The problem is that the balanced schedule and the results it yields don’t match up. Twins are terrible, they shouldn’t have a spot in the postseason with better teams in a balanced schedule.
Its not truly ‘3 games’ behind, it’s 4 behind in the win column due to a different number of games played.
Which means it’s 5 games in order to actually pass them.
Seattle has played less games than Boston, so, in their case it’s a question of having more losses, and, again needing to win more games jmto pass them than the standings indicate due to the “half game” method of counting
GA, because you can’t make up a loss, look primarily at the loss column and it’s only two with Toronto. Not counting Seattle or other teams, if the Sox make up those two games and then play even, they end up in a tie.
When you’re > .500, games in hand works in your favor, since you are expected to win over 50% of the extra games..
Toronto has to basically lose two more than us the rest of the way and (disregarding Seattle) we will beat them for the WC.
Joe, its six of one, half dozen of another. I say boston has to win 4 more games than toronto to catch them. You say toronto has to lose two more than boston to catch them.
Both lead to the same record.
If you look at this team this year, no win is guaranteed. Boston should’ve been expected to win more against Oakland than they did as well, and, they didn’t. Could say the same.for plenty of series, against worse teams than most of the remaining schedule.
Joe – Just win 3 more than Toronto. That sounds simple enough but it’s such a meaningless statement especially with no context.
So how do the educated people estimate Boston’s chances? Strength of schedule. Each game isn’t as likely to be a win. Why? Because in one game you might face Scherzer, Verlander or Kershaw and in another game you might face an opener for a bad team.
There are four teams above Boston for the three spots and 3 teams behind Boston who could pass them if they got hot. Anything can happen but if you are looking at probabilities then you must look at schedules.
With a record of 62-56 and the remaining tough schedule the Boston Red Sox are currently projected to finish with 81 wins. Before you start jumping up and down screaming about projecting their current win % you must consider their future opposition. The current projection for the remainder of their games (44) is 19-25. Thus the Red Sox would finish at 81=81 and not make the playoffs for the third of four years under Bloom despite starting with a World Championship roster when he arrived.
For Boston to have a chance to make the playoffs a few things would need to happen:
1 – they would need to win more than 11 of the 22 games against the AL East
2 – they would need to win 4 or more of the 7 vs HOU
3 – they would need to win more than 3 of the 6 games vs LAD and TEX
4 – they would need to win at least 6 of the 9 games versus CWS, KC & WAS.
That would give them a record of 24-20. That would give them 86 wins and that MIGHT be enough to make the playoffs as the 3rd Wild Card.
Obviously anything can happen but the odds of that happening seem very low on August 14th!!
I agree with most of what you say but we weren’t exactly a World Championship roster in 2020. Sure, we won in 2018 but 2019 we didn’t make the playoffs.
Boston should’ve been expected to win more against Oakland than they did
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Is that true? Without even doing the math, I’d bet real money that we weren’t favored to win 5-6. That would imply that Oakland is .166 team, while they are actually a .280 team.
Obviously anything can happen but the odds of that happening seem very low on August 14th!!
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No doubt that we are an underdog. The series in TO will decide how big an underdog.
“5 games in order to actually pass them”
They dont need to “pass them” to get into the playoffs. There would be a 1 game head-to-head faceoff to get into the playoffs, if they finish with the same record. Odd you dont know this. Or are you just lying to make it seem tougher than it actually is. Wait I know the answer.
Doom – What you say is true but until Mookie was removed from the roster the Red Sox roster inherited by Bloom had World Series Championship skills on it. 2019 had two really bad breaks 1 – Cora not having the starting staff ready to start the year and 2 – Injuries to key players. Things like that happen to championship teams and they rebound the next year. 2020 could have been better than it was but the key injury to Sale still had a big impact AND losing Mookie killed the team’s chances of being a championship level team.
Lets go back to 2016 and 2017 while the team was building to championship levels and recall they won the division each year which was unprecedented. Then the Ring the next year and when things went very badly in 2019 they still won 84 games without many key players.
So the championship roster had the skills to repeat and had Spring Training gone better and if Eovaldi, Sale and Price hadn’t suffered injuries, the 2019 team would have made the playoffs and had a chance to repeat. Also, don’t forget in 2017 Boston got eliminated by the cheating Astros. Who knows if that would have been another ring had they not cheated. So the roster inherited by Bloom truly was a championship caliber team. It’s his actions that have changed that.
Trollboy – To isolate a single comment without taking into account all the other teams besides TOR is naive. It shows an immense lack of understanding of the actual situation.
He did inherit some talent, I completely agree, but would you want to tie those guys to big contracts? Look at Sale now- always injured. If you lock those guys up to big money and they don’t perform, then you become what the Yankees are now.
Doom – One small point about bad contracts. When the Yankees sign a monster contract for a guy who is a bit injury prone and inconsistent they get what they deserve. The original signing of Sale was well below league value so Boston made a ton of money on Sale’s early years. To avoid a bidding war for Sale Dombrowski signed him over a year before free agency but his contract left Sale’s annual AAV in Boston at $23 million a year. That is outstanding for an elite pitcher.
What DD didn’t know was the huge impact Cora would have on elite SPs. While Farrell knew how to manage great pitchers because he was a pitcher, Cora is clueless and has hurt the Red Sox organization with his mismanagement of great SPs. A GM shouldn’t have to be accountable for signing a great pitcher who gets destroyed by a bad manager. That’s on the manager and both Sale and Price never were the same after Cora managed them. Note that Kluber was an elite SP a few years ago and also failed under Cora. Let’s see if Paxton who has never been elite but has been above league average whether he will also end up like the others.
You don’t have to be a hardcore fan to see how badly Cora mismanages substitutions during games. Lets be fair and consider the $23 million a year for nearly a decade for an elite SP a good set of contracts. Revisionist historians want to blame DD but at best you can only fault him for under estimating the negative impact of Cora.
Dewey – Old school!! I like it. Your comments about only worrying about the losses have transcended time. The younger readers should take this concept to heart! Nice job.
That almost looks like Julio Rodríguez.
Yeah, I saw Joely and thought the hip injury might have been obstetrical related.
that ain’t hip
Sacrumligeous?
About time the Red Sox put Whitlock where he’s dominant at. In the bullpen.
Whitlock has been light out effective in the bullpen, and I am very glad he is back to doing what he does best. That said I do not blame Whitlock for wanting to try to be a starter in the MLB (1-starters make considerably more, 2-if the Red Sox brass could have had Whitlock as a starter instead of a free agent it would have saved considerable $). Again, Whitlock as a reliever mean more effective innings and less IL time! IMO
I prefer Whitlock in the BP, but it was an experiment they needed to do. An SP will generally be twice as valuable as an RP, if only on IPs alone. Same with Houck and Winc. I think both are destined for valuable BP roles, but it is not unreasonable to try them as SPs.
I really really deplore the Boston City Connect uniforms, like more than any uniform I have ever seen, including the All-Star Game 2023 pajama uniforms. Was there a significance to the Blue/Yellow color combo? Because I thought the Mariners had ran the gauntlet on every possible blues/yellow combo over the years.
Blue and yellow are Boston Marathon colors, so a tip of the cap to the finish line bombings ten years ago.
Rather have Murphy than Rodriguez anyway. Only upgrade we have left is Houck for LLovera.
Bloom’s trade of Llovera, Barraclough, Walter, Chang and Arroyo for Sale, Whitlock, Houck Story and Urias almost complete
I kind of hope that we don’t make the playoffs. Blooms directive was too rebuild the farm system and recreate the bosox as Tampa Bay North. It’s been well documented as to why Dombrowski was let go after winning a championship. He didn’t have much balance between the now and the future. Bloom isn’t perfect by any means, but the farm system will start producing next year. Young, controllable talent will finally allow the Sox to start paying big money to veteran pitchers. I don’t think it’ll be next year, but 2025 will be the beginning of something special IMO.
Chris – Actually Dombrowski parted ways because Henry wanted him to start running the Red Sox like they were the Rays, and Dombrowski refused. He didn’t want to be the one to take the heat for trading Benni, Mookie, etc.
And if you look at the core of young Red Sox talent right now, it’s almost all Dombrowski acquisitions.
Rafaela
Crawford
Murphy
Walter
Casas
Bello
Duran
Houck
Unfortunately Fever, the way of baseball generally requires a GM to make the most of the talent their predecessor stockpiled, and, many GMs are gone before much of their own selections really show what they’re worth.
Dombrowski last put his touches on things 5 years ago. We’re only starting to see early returns on his young players, and, if you cite to trajectories of Benny, dalbec, swihart, etc etc etc, you really need to see a good 3 years to know if someone will have consistent success and continue to make adjustments to keep up with opposing pitching, or, just have a really good 12-18 months before becoming average to replacement level from there out.
You never know, but, it’s hard to picture bloom as a 12 year tenured GM to really know what his guys amount to
You know, I could care less if Bloom gets fired tomorrow, but that’s obviously because of the age of the prospects. Don’t you think? Good lord man.
Mayer is 20 Anthoney. and Bleis are 19.
syco – All I’m saying is the people who insisted Dombrowski left a barren farm system have been proven to be full of crap.
Eight ML players performing well, not including Dalbec, is darn good for just 4 years of drafts.
Fever Pitch Guy
Eight ML players performing well, not including Dalbec, is darn good for just 4 years of drafts.ver Pitch Guy
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Dalbec – draft 2016
Houck – draft 2017
Crawford – draft 2017
Duran – draft 2018
Casas – draft 2018
Bello – signed 2017
Rafaela – signed 2017
Murphy – draft 2019
So much squinting, I don’t see 4 years, except Murphy
“All I’m saying is the people who insisted Dombrowski left a barren farm system have been proven to be full of crap.”
He absolutely left a barren farm system. He walked into Betts, Devers, Benintendi Bogaerts, Rodriguez, Vazquez, Bradley, Barnes. All with loads of control and on the cheap.
Who did Bloom walk into? 3 years of nothing. And why are you including Raphaela as a “core” major leaguer, he’s never gotten an AB yet. Several of the others are barely making an impact (Houck 13 games, 5.05 ERA).
The “CORE” of the Red Sox in 2024 is Devers, Casas, Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Turner, Duvall, Refsnyder, Paxton, Whitlock, Crawford, Jansen. Pivetta, Bello
DD had 4 years of drafting, 4 year international signings and any trades. What we have is 4 ‘core’ players 5 years later, Wow! . Give me a break. Oh and thanks for that Sale Extension and Price contract DD. Bloom loved those two gems.
bogie – Four years of drafts means 4 drafts, one for each year between 2016-2019.
Just for some context, the US draft players that DD acquired from 2016-2019 have accumulated a career bWAR of 15.9. That makes us last in our division.
Joe – Context. A very misleading stat. You didn’t account for how many were picked, what round, were they HS or College players since college players tend to add to the bogus estimate of WAR sooner than HS players.
Your data is meaningless without context..
Joe – When you win 3 consecutive division championships over a 4-year period, and a World Championship, the rest of the division will have much better draft positioning … obviously.
All the more amazing when you look at first round positioning:
2017 – Red Sox #24 (Houck)
2018 – Red Sox #26 (Casas)
And in 2019, they had their worst first pick in franchise history at #43.
Fever Pitch Guy
Rafaela – 22 Age (AAA), maybe debut Sep.2023
Crawford – 27 Age debut MLB Sep.2021 (25 Age),breach in this season
Murphy – 25 Age ( debut MLB June 2023)
Walter – 26 Age ( debut MLB June 2023, (AAA),
Casas – 23 Age (debut MLB Sept. 2022 (22 Age)
Bello – 24 Age (debut MLB July 2022 (23 Age)
Duran – 26 Age (debut MLB July 2021 (24 Age) breach in this season
Houck – 27 Age (debut MLB Sep.2020 (24 Age)
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Betts – debut MLB 21 Age
Bogaerts – debut MLB 20 Age
Devers – debut MLB 20 Age
Benintendi – debut MLB 22 Age
JBJ – debut MLB 23 Age
Swihart – debut MLB 23 Age
Moncada – debut MLB 21 Age
Kopech – debut MLB 22 Age
Only Casas, Bello and Rafaela is distinguished as a young group of talents 22 – 23 Y’s
Bogie – Context!! If you draft a college player they will appear to be a lesser pick in your presentation. The data you presented has no meaning since it’s taken out of context.
“Context!!”
Do you afford Bloom the same “Context” when reviewing his drafts? After all he favors High Schoolers over College players.
Bogus excuse.
Chris – Dombrowski’s draft picks are the now. He had a great plan throught 2022 and then he was going to tweak the roster in 2023 based on performance of the players with renewable contracts. It was a plan, something we haven’t seen since.
The Farm System under Bloom is not stronger. Please list any acquired players that you see are boosting the farm system. Draft choices are for ANY GM and there is no way to tell whether Bloom or Dombrowski was better at drafting but Casas and Houck are two key guys Dombrowski picked who have turned out very well not to mention Duran. Everyone is hoping for Mayer but we only got Mayer because two very bad GMs passed on him so he fell to the fourth spot. I guarantee Dombrowski would have chosen him just like Bloom because it was an obvious choice.
You have completely exaggerated the effectiveness of Bloom and undersold the greatness of the future HOF GM Dombrowski.
Red Sox fans LOST OUT ON something special the day Dombrowski got fired. He brought 3 DIvision Titles and a RING in four years. Since then we’ve had embarrasing finishes except in lucky 2021 when everything fell just right to pretend we had a chance in the playoffs against a team like Houston. The 2018 Red Sox team if it had still been entact in 2021 could have beat the Astros and won it all but the talent depleted Red Sox of 2021 had no chance.
The future will continue to be a nightmare until Bloom is gone. Sure Dombrowski’s minor league players might become all-stars but there is no OTHER ADD from Bloom that can take them to the top. That’s why a new GM is needed to improve the future and forget about the disaster that has been 2020-2023.
“The Farm System under Bloom is not stronger.”
______________________________________________
You are either misinformed or trolling.
Oh, he’s trolling.
He’s on his 5th screenname over the past 10 days.
Changes his screen name to support his posts…lol
All – Simply list the pick-ups that have added to the farm system. Feel free to add guys like Jeter Downs!
Drafts are annual adds that are based on performance and the team has been awful under Bloom so his picks moved way up compared to the three division titles and world series by Dombrowski.
Adding to a farm system has to do with acquisitions not draft picks unless the GM trades for draft picks. That hasn’t happened.
The cupboard is bare under Bloom. The draft picks would have been offered to any GM in charge of the Red Sox so suggesting an impact by Bloom this quickly after draft picks is a silly discussion. It’s only now that DD has proven what great draft picks he had so Bloom’s results are too early to know. THUS, only acquisitions outside of the draft can be counted when evaluating his impact on the Farm System.
So make the case of all his great acquisitions in the farm system so we can all see how much he has improved an already great farm system.
Cooper – When a half dozen trolls don’t talk about baseball each time you write something I spent some time having fun being a pied piper and watching the trolls hunt out the new names before they spun their comments from baseball to trolling. It worked, they followed and as much fun as it was to string them along and document their trolling. I’m done now. I plan on simply focusing on talking baseball again and I fully expect the ignorance of the trolls on every comment I make.
If you choose to join the trolls in harassing me I will be disappointed because I’ve enjoyed discussing baseball with you.
So let me get this straight.
Trolls messed with you, so then you changed your screen name over and over again to “string them along.”
Do you understand all trolls want to do is get you to react? And you think you won by spending days, or was it weeks, reacting?
Trolls, by definition, are people who are just on the Internet to mess with people’s heads. You just admitted you did numerous things, all because of trolls messing with your head. This means the trolls won.
You get that, right?
He keeps changing his screen name over and over because people teased him?
AHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Trollfree
Whitlock, Winckowski, Wong, Valdez.
W,Abreu and Drohan on approach.
Let us talk about baseball – feel free.
Trollfree
The cupboard is bare under Bloom. The draft picks would have been offered to any GM in charge of the Red Sox so suggesting an impact by Bloom this quickly after draft picks is a silly discussion. It’s only now that DD has proven what great draft picks he had so Bloom’s results are too early to know. THUS, only acquisitions outside of the draft can be counted when evaluating his impact on the Farm System.
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Tell, as prospects of Dombrowski – J.Groome Drafted 2016, 1st (12) – Bos. $3.65 million, C.J.Chatam 2016, 2nd (51) – Bos $1.1 million, D.Diaz signed 2017 – Bos $1.65 million, A.Flores (SS) signed 2017 – Bos $1.4 million, N.Decker 2018, 2nd (64) – Bos $1.25 million, C.Cannon 2019, 2nd (43) – Bos $1.3 million,
You need to follow the farm system. I can’t explain it all to you.
Try http://www.soxprospects.com.
Bogie – I guess I missed the context yet again. Normally, people list their point and back it with data. Your data suggests next to nothing spent on draft picks that haven’t panned out yet but overlooks all the ones that have.
Check EVERY TEAM during the 2010s and how many hits like Casas, Duran and Houck have been made by GMs selecting at the end of the first round. Sure Houston did great with a bunch of early picks created from tanking but check the other teams and show me someone whose had more picks that turned into all-stars during the 2010s or narrow it down to Dombrowski’s four drafts if you only want to rag on DD.
Here are the first picks of the DD years:
2016 –
BOS – 12th pick HS SP Jason Groome (often injured)
TB – 13th pick HS 3B Justin Lowe
HOU – 17th pick HS SP Forest Whitley (often injured)
NYY – 18th pick HS OF Blake Rutherford
TOR – 21st pick – College SP TJ Zeuch
BAL – 27th pick – College SP Cody Zedlock
The first round of the 2016 draft produced no perennial all-stars. TB arguably got the best player of the six teams listed.
2017 –
TB – 4th pick College SP/1B Brendan McKay
HOU – 15th pick College SP JB Bukauskas
NYY – 16th pick College SP Clarke Schmidt
BAL – 21st pick HS SP DL Hall
TOR – 22nd pick – College SS Logan Warmoth
BOS – 24rd pick – College SP Tanner Houck
Hunter Greene and Mackenzie Gore went on the 2nd and 3rd picks and may be the best two players in the 2017 first round. Rasmussen was taken as a supplemental pick by TB late in the round and is probably the best player.
Please note Houck was the best of the six team being compared.
2018 –
BAL – 11th pick – HS SP Grayson Rodriguez
TOR – 12th pick – HS SS Jordan Groshans
TB – 16th pick – HS SP Matthew Libertore
NYY – 23rd pick – HS C Anthony Siegler
BOS – 26th pick – HS 3B Tristan Casas
HOU – 28th pick – College OF Seth Beer
Casey Mize, Alec Bohm and Logan Gilbert are three of the best players in the first round of this draft and Casas is right there with them. As per usual, TB had supplemental picks and chose Shane McClanahan the best of all the first round picks.
2019 –
BAL – 1st pick – College C Adley Rutschman
TOR – 11th pick – College SP Alek Manoah
TB – 22nd pick – College SS Greg Jones
NYY – 3oth pick – HS SS Anthony Volpe
HOU and BOS had no first round picks.
This was one of the deepest drafts and BAL and TOR did extremely well with their early picks. The Yankees did well at 30th with Volpe.
So look at the data above and you will see Dombrowski outdrafted the 5 key competitors during the first round of the drafts he participated in for Boston.
Listing fliers after the first round as examples of his draft is silly. Their money was incosequential as was their contribution just like EVERY other team. Your point was pointless but nice job on the research!!
He keeps changing his screen name over and over because people teased him?
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I lit him up like a Roman Candle over his 2021 predictions, arguably some of the worst I have ever seen. So I’ll take responsibility for making him change his name to PulledaBloom.
The other 4-5 name changes can be someone else’s responsibility.
Great job, you beat me to it!
How about owning what you say whether it is accurate or not and not changing your name. Would have much more respect for you……
Trollfree
On your logic turns out that if Dombrowski abortively drafted that it is a not catastrophe, and if Bloom made a mistake with Downs in the transaction of Mookie that he can be kicked as a dead horse at every successful case and to use as an argument in any comfortable for you question.
Trollfree
Check EVERY TEAM during the 2010s and how many hits like Casas, Duran and Houck have been made by GMs selecting at the end of the first round.
__________________________________________________________
God!!!
You do not even know that Duran wasn’t drafted in the first round.
J.Duran Draft: 2018, Boston Red Sox, Round : 7, Overall Pick : 220
He wants to talk baseball with you though, You just have to guess who you’re talking to because he changes his screen name every two days
in fairness no one teased him and if you asked why he changed his name you’ll probably get 8 different responses to go along with the 8 screen names. They just disagreed with him and actually made arguments that made sense. He’s just insecure and oversensitive which leads to his own self owns. it’s pretty funny actually.
Oh, its definitely funny.
I thought the real funny part was when he changed user names, and then proceeded to something identical to his previous name.
Trollfree
The future will continue to be a nightmare until Bloom is gone. Sure Dombrowski’s minor league players might become all-stars but there is no OTHER ADD from Bloom that can take them to the top. That’s why a new GM is needed to improve the future and forget about the disaster that has been 2020-2023.
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If Dombrowski would be GM in 2020 and further, that we had:
Red Sox 2020:
1.Betts RF $27 m AAV Arb3
2.Benintendi LF $5 m AAV (60 – DL)
3.Bogaerts SS $20 m AAV
4.Devers 3B min
5.JD DH $22 m AAV
6 Moreland 1B $3 m AAV
7 Vazquez C $4,5 m AAV
8.JBJ CF $11 m AAV Arb3
9.Chavis 2B min
Bench: Holt UTL $3.5 m AAV, Leon C $1.5 m AAV, Dalbec 1B min
SP:
1.Sale $25.6 m AAV (60 day TJS)
2.Price $31 m AAV
3.Eovaldi $17 m AAV
4.Rodriguez $8.3 m AAV Arb2 (60 day Heart)
5. FA ?
Bullpen:
CL ?
Workman $3.5 m AAV Arb3
Barnes $3.1 m AAV Arb2
Brasier min
Hembree $1.6 m AAV Arb2
Walden min
D.Hernandez L min
Taylor L min
Weber min
Brewer min (60-day Finger)
$186 m AAV – 25man roster + $13.75 m AAV (Pedroia 60 man) +$15 m Minor salaries = $214,75 m AAV
2020 Tax Treshold $208 m
2020 Red Sox Tax Treshold $214.75 m
It puts of Red Sox higher than tax threshold on $6.75 million in third times in succession without SP5, closer, with of dung bullpen .
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Red Sox 2021:
1.Betts RF $30 m AAV
2.Benintendi LF $5 m AAV
3.Bogaerts SS $20 m AAV
4.Devers 3B $4.6 m AAV Arb1
5.JD DH $22 m AAV
6.Dalbec 1B min
7.Vazquez C $4.5 m AAV
8. ? CF ? Duran is not ready
9. ? 2B ?
Bench: Chavis INF min, $2 m C, 4th OF – ?
SP:
1.(Sale $25.6 m AAV TJS) ?
2.Price $31 m AAV
3. Eovaldi $17 m AAV
4.Rodriguez $8.3 m AAV
5.Houck min
Bullpen;
CL ?
8 Inn ?
Barnes $4.5 m AAV Arb3
Brasier $1.2 m AAV Arb1
Taylor L min
Hernandez L min
Workman $1 m AAV
Bazardo min
Brewer min
$185 m AAV – 25man roster + $13.75 m AAV (Pedroia Retained salaries, last year) + $15 m Minor Salaries = $213.75 m AAV
2021 Tax Treshold $210 m
2021 Red Sox Tax Treshold $213.75 m
It puts of Red Sox higher than tax threshold on $3.75 million in 4rd times in succession without SP1/2, CF, 2B, closer, number 8, with of dung bullpen .
I very want to read you arguments.
Bogie – The tax if Price hadn’t opted out would not have exceeded $10MM but Price did opt out so subtract $32MM and they are under the limit in 2020.
Mookie was at $27MM in 2020 and wanted $36MM in 2021 so a $9MM raise. So the old contracts falling off would have covered his increase or DD could have non-tendered JBJ and save $11MM per year. Either way the team could have moved into the 20s with an all-star caliber team, a reset luxury tax and a far more experienced and knowledgeable GM but it didn’t. Nothing we can do about it now except complain about what could have been and cry about the awful results in 2020-2023 compared to what could have been.
Trollfree
Mookie was at $27MM in 2020 and wanted $36MM in 2021 so a $9MM raise. So the old contracts falling off would have covered his increase or DD could have non-tendered JBJ and save $11MM per year. Either way the team could have moved into the 20s with an all-star caliber team, a reset luxury tax and a far more experienced and knowledgeable GM but it didn’t. Nothing we can do about it now except complain about what could have been and cry about the awful results in 2020-2023 compared to what could have been.
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You fully ignore circumstance that Red Sox remained on 2020 without Sale #1 (TJS), Rodriguez #3 (Heart), #5 Porcello (FA), Benintendi (60 – DL), Closer – is absent; if you trade JBJ that remain without LF and CF, 2b – enormous hole, after the injury of Pedroia therefore variant – Holt or Chavis, bullpen is complete garbage, threat to exceed 3th time a tax on a luxury.
Yielding up JBJ you open a hole in CF and tax on a luxury will make $203.75 million.
Tax Treshold 2020 – $208 million.
That we have on 2020:
1.Betts RF $27m
2.Bogaerts SS $20m
3.Devers 3b min
4.JD DH $22m
5.Moreland 1b $3m
6. ? LF
7. ? CF
8.Vazquez C $4.5m
9. ? 2b
Bench: Holt UTL, Chavis 1B/2B, Leon C $2m
SP : #1 – ?, #2 Price $31m, #3 Eovaldi $17m, #4 ?, #5 Houck min
Bullpen : complete garbage without of closer.
It is needed to compete in 2020:
1) even if to take into count that Houck makes debut at the beginning of 2020 under #5, Price doesn’t skip 2020 year, needed 2 middle stable SP #3 ($35 million minimum).
2) to substitute of Benny and JBJ by adequate outfielders. ($7 million minimum)
3) closer ($10 m min) is needed
4) to recondition of bullpen – except of Workman, Barnes and Taylor, other pitchers were garbage in 2019. ( 2 -3 hard hands it’s $8 m).
5) you cann’t play with Holt and Chavis on the second base in a champion command complete season.
Is it you champion command? Lol!
Chasen Shreve’s next stop Fenway via Worchester?
Time to rate the deadline moves.
1. Kept Duggie, Duvall & Paxton.
2. Traded Kike for 2 prospects.
3. Picked up Urias cheap.
4. Waited for Sale, Story, Schrieber, Houck, Whitlock.
Time will tell but they are still in the race without trading away the future for rentals.
They can field a lineup with 7 RH batters or 6 LH batters.
Once Houck replaces Llovera the staff will have a chance to be solid from top to bottom.
Yes it was painful to sit through all the short term players followed by DFAs but in the long run there will be benefits.
I’ll be a little disappointed if we aren’t good at full strength. We’re on pace for 85 wins, despite missing a decent amount of players. I won’t be disappointed if we can’t catch TO, since they are good, but I will be disappointed if we don’t start playing closer to a .550-.575 clip.
Joe- Agreed, the Red Sox at full strength are a much stronger team than what they have shown this season. The offense, defense, and pitching will ALL be considerably better now that everyone is back. I think the Red Sox are better than Seattle and Toronto, but the schedule with 7 games against Houston a series with the Dodgers along with ALE teams will be difficult. That said, the Red Sox have played their best baseball against the best teams. It is the crappy teams they have stumbled over…
Are the Red Sox in the race still because of the lack of moves OR did the team hit a 9 game stretch against 3 of the worst teams in baseball? We won’t be able to evaluate the lack of moves at the deadline until they play their upcoming 13 games against Houston, the Dodgers and the Yankees. If they do well during the 13 game stretch then adding might not have been necessary but if they get clobbered the addition of a great SP would have given them a much better chance to make the playoffs.
For four years the trade deadline has been one of the biggest disasters each year because Bloom freezes when it’s time to act and once again in 2023 has behaved consistently with his past. Your point that not giving up prospects was good and I agree because the team really has never had a chance to make the playoffs, even at full strength.
BAL, TB, TEX, HOU and the Central Division winner are all going to make the playoffs before BOS. At full strength is BOS better than TOR, LAA, SEA and NYY?
It’s close enough to give BOS fans hope but in the end the inconsistency of the team, the bad managing decisions and the number of away games are all working against them making the last WC spot. As of today, they are 27-28 on the road and they have 25 away games. They are 35-28 at home and have 19 home games. The six game difference is magnified because they are far worse on the road than at home.
I agree that not wasting prospects was good but not getting an elite SP for the stretch run and next year was a bad move. Giving up prospects to get a Scherzer, Verlander or even a Cease make sense if you want to win soon. Bloom doesn’t have that urgency to win so his lack of action is consistent with his excruciating long planning horizon.
The prediction of winning in sports is never done on a straight line extension of past performance. The reason is strength of schedule should always be considered.
Right now the team is trending to an 81 win season based on strength of schedule which is 4 games behind the straight line estimate.. The beta on this estimate is huge because their 2023 results have been so incredibly inconsistent. It’s equally likely that they are eliminated by September 1 as it is likely they pass the teams ahead of them for the 3rd wild card spot.
Predictions are always fun but they are completely inaccurate because nobody knows the future. Suggesting a straight line as if it was a fact that it would happen is very naive.
The beta on this estimate is huge because their 2023 results have been so incredibly inconsistent.
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The beta is high because baseball’s beta is high.
The RS are actually pretty consistent. Their worst month has been .464. TB, TO, and the NYY all have had worst month’s than that.
As has MN, Tex, SEA, Philly, Miami, MIL, SF, and most other .500+ teams.
Joe – Your perspective on what makes for inconsistent is one way to look at it. I was actually referring to the inexplicable series results. I find the following results really hard to explain:
0-3 vs PIT at home in April
3-0 vs DET on the road in April
4-0 vs TOR at home to begin May
0-3 vs STL at home a short time later in May
3-0 vs NYY in June
0-3 vs MIA later in June
3-0 vs TOR the next series
1-2 vs OAK after beating them 3-0 at home early in July
Their 9-2 record at home vs good teams in July
Their 5-7 record on the road vs bad teams in July
Since August they have been swept by a team they were 7-0 against and they have beat up two really bad teams who have been their Achilles heel type teams in 2023.
This is the inconsistency I was referring to. If they are not inconsistent by month, great. It’s a completely different point but I think you accurately made the point.
Their 5-7 record on the road vs bad teams in July
======================
You need to get a better handle on the numbers, In July, they played::
2 at TO
3 at Cubs
3 at Oak
3 at SF
1 at Sea
So they didn’t play 12 games on the road against “bad teams in July”. They played 3 against a bad team, and 9 against good teams.
And we went 6-6, not 5-7. And 6-6 is exactly what should be expected based on the level of competition.
Joe – You read 10 examples of their inconsistency and you want to fight about 1 that you disagree with because you classify good and bad differently than I do. That’s childish.
The point was about their inconsistency and you need to focus on the point not some tangent you want to go off on to start an argument.
Do you agree or disagree about the point of the comment ?
If you disagree then you are going to need to refute more than 1 of 10 statements.
Let’s not forget the surprising 3-1 record against the best team in MLB, the Braves.
BTW – I think the Yanks have transitioned to a very mediocre team.
Joe – Here is the rebuttal to your bizarre tangent to my comment.
FACTS!!
Boston Red Sox record by Month
APR 15-14
MAY 14=11
JUN 14-13
JUL 14=11
At home they are 35-28 and away they are 27-28.
They have played TOR 10 of 13 games winning 7 but losing the last 3.
They have played TB 8 of 13 games winning just one game.with 5 left
They have played BAL 6 of 13 games winning 3 of the 6 leaving 7 games
The last 3 games of the season are in BAL who leads the division
They have played NYY 6 of 13 games winning 5 of the 6 leaving 7 games
22 games versus the AL East but most importantly TB has owned Boston and has 5 games left, BAL opened the season losing 2 of 3 to Boston but is a vastly improved team based on their record. So the 12 games versus two teams that have much better records will be very challenging. A .500 record against those two teams would be a high expectation.
NYY and TOR on the other hand are easier opponents. The 10 games with them need to provide at least 5 wins but 7 or 8 would be needed to help close the gap between BOS and the teams ahead of them.
Those 22 games make up half of the remaining games:
HOU represents 7 of the remaining 22 games along with 3 versus Texas and 3 vs LAD so 13 of the 22 remaining non AL East games are against far superior teams. To expect 6 wins in those 4 series is very aggressive. Each series is likely to generate 1 win so 4=9 record. Thus to salvage the non AL East games Boston will need to crush WAS this week in WAS, KC for 3 games in KC in SEPT and CWS in Boston for 3 games late in Sept. Those 9 games with the 13 versus the great teams make up the 22 which represents the non AL East games.
To me if they finish their last 44 games at 22-22 it will be a shockingly good finish. It would give them 84 wins and that won’t make the playoffs.
The facts about the schedule are correct and you can choose whichever teams you think are good and bad to summarize the data. It’s hard to argue that LAD, TEX, HOU, TB and BAL are not better teams than BOS. The rest is a bit more subjective but I’m sure you will lament about how much better BOS is than TOR and NYY in the AL East and CWS, WAS and KC in the non AL East games.
Games against LAD, HOU, TEX, BAL and TB total 25 leaving 19 versus TOR, NYY, CWS, WAS and KC. Less games versus bad opponents doesn’t suggest a strong finish unless BOS can learn to beat LAD, HOU, TEX, BAL and TB. They did well against TEX earlier this year but TEX was missing Seager and Nate. Now they are both back with Scherzer and Montgomery filling out their starting staff so the match-ups favor TEX far more now than when they last met.,
Again 22-22 is extremely optimistic but anything could happen. After all, look at all the miracles that occurred in 2021. Baseball can not be predicted precisely, it can only forecast with each individuals biases.
Joe – One more key fact about the remainder of their schedule. They play 25 of 52 in division games after August 15th. The toughest division in baseball and almost 50% of their games are in the last 45 days of the season. That’s what the new balanced schedule is all about. September races within each division.
Fever – Excellent point on my oversight!! I predicted 0-2 in ATL and 1-1 in BOS. That’s one of the reasons my 74 win forecast got bumped up 2 games. Didn’t think ATL would lose more than 1!! As we enter the WAS series (2-1 forecast) the team is 7 games over the original forecast so 81 wins.
I agree about the Yankees. Their issue is the GM like ours. All that money and no common sense picking injury free guys. Cole was a good move and Stanton was a disaster. They need new blood in the front office and a new manager!! Sound familiar? haha
Joe – You read 10 examples of their inconsistency and you want to fight about 1 that you disagree with because you classify good and bad differently than I do.
===========================
1-I don’t read your entire posts. I doubt anyone does.
2-Your objective numbers were all wrong. That part has nothing to do with subjectivity.
3-Even on the subjective part, you were egregiously wrong. These are the teams you called “bad”:
TO .550
Cubs .517
SF .534
Sea .538
I’m curious. Do you simply not get how wrong you are, or is it that you don’t possess the ability to admit you are wrong?
Joe – Here is the rebuttal to your bizarre tangent to my comment.
FACTS!!
Boston Red Sox record by Month
APR 15-14
MAY 14=11
JUN 14-13
JUL 14=11
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1-So your rebuttal is to show how consistent the RS are?
2-I hope you realize that, once again, you have completely screwed up the numbers. You have the wrong numbers for May, June, and July.
Seriously, you need to take a break. You spent how many hours on that? And you butchered the numbers.
Past that, you spent how many hours posting about their future schedule, even though the conversation was about the RS consistency.
And, FWIW, I know exactly what their future schedule is. I occasionally post what the winning % is of their future opponents. IIRC, it is ~ .550. You could skipped most of your writing and just referred to my posts.
I told you this back in 2021. Trying to predict a 162-game record based on how a team will do against 29 different opponents, is crazy. For every team that you unexpectedly do well against, there will be one team that you do unexpectedly poorly against.
Next time, take the expected OPS from the hitters and pitchers, and apply the Py W/L formula.
Joe – Like I told you in 2021. Predictions are not accurate but using a standard technique allows you to minimize the standard deviation from the actual.
There have been 38 series so far in 2023. Predicting 2-1 vs 1-2 in most series based on quality of opponent and home and away gives me solid results.
11 estimates were exact
13 times Boston won one more game than expected
9 times Boston lost one more game than expected
These numbers should draw closer as the sample size increases.
The unpredictable results skew the wins up or down from the norm.
Boston has won 3 more games in a series against TOR (4-0 vs 1-3)
Boston has won 2 more games in a series against TOR and NYY
Boston has lost 2 more games in a series against PIT and STL
The net of these 5 series is BOS winning 3 more games than expected.
Thus the 74 wins expectation is raised to 77 wins.
Add the differential on one game underestimates and over estimates that total 4 games and you have an 81 win expectation as of today.
The key to the rest of the season is how many times can BOS beat expectations. They are four series ahead right now but typically it evens out by year end so they could drop four in the remaining 44 games. But it’s the future so we don’t know. They could extend the 4 to 6 in a straight line fashion or double the 4 to 8 if the recent additions have a big impact.
I don’t predict the future. I model or simulate the future like WAR does. My estimate like WAR’s is a single person’s opinion (or company for WAR) and there are no guarantees the assumptions are correct.
You are like a rival producer of WAR with your own technique for estimating the future that you strongly believe in. In the end, they are just predictions so neither WAR nor our win estimates are accurate except in hindsight.
That’s why my old school belief in real stats far exceeds my belief in any estimation technique used in modern metrics.
Predictions are not accurate but using a standard technique allows you to minimize the standard deviation from the actual.
=============================
And yet, you only missed by 41.5%.
Joe – To obtuse. Missed what by 41.5%? Which prediction in the end was wrong by 41.5%? I hope you aren’t suggesting ANY conclusions can be made with 43 games left. That would be silly. You don’t know the future and neither do I or for that matter anyone else! So what’s off by 41.5%?
Trollfree
You so many tell about a champion command 2020 year.
Give to us the vision of composition on 2020 without exceeding of tax on a luxury in third times, without JBJ in composition, without Sale, Rodriguez, Benny, with a hole on the second base, without a closer, with dung bullpen.
How did you fill composition on 2020 with present problems, to fight?
You predicted 65 wins. Since the last time the RS only won 65 or less was over 50 years ago, that should’ve been your first clue.
For the calculation 92/65=41.5%.
JoeBrady
Trollfree or KD17 or PulledaBlum gave a prognosis for Red Sox at the beginning of season of 2023 -74 wins maximum.
When he understood that his prognoses once again will not give a result he changed a nickname, he wrote posts when Red Sox stood failures against the clubs of National League and disappeared when Boston prevailed above the commands of internal division it is documented on this web-site.
It became maybe awkward him that he once again sat down in a puddle with the prognoses.
I understood one, that this man is very heavy to acknowledge the mistakes.
Bogie – I’ve read your comment multiple times and I have no idea what it is saying.
How did you fill composition on 2020 with present problems, to fight?
My decoder ring has failed me. I have no idea what that means except you are asking something about 2020.
2020, in January looked to be a rebound season since the championship team was still present for the most part. The outfield was Benny, JBJ (with Duran possibly stepping into JBJ’s job, Betts, Devers, Bogey, TBD at 2B, Moreland, Vazquez, Sale, Price, Eovaldi, E-ROD but Porcello’s contract was up he might have been gone. Then February came and there was no Mookie or Price, the injury to Sale was incorrectly postponed by Bloom until March so Sale missed two seasons not just one. COVID hit and the world changed dramatically because the Red Sox lost their best hitter and franchise player and their top SP lost an extra season of play because in 2019 Cora chose to change his mechanics and caused his elbow problems that led to TJ surgery which should have happened about the time owners fired DD in August but the temp leaders were clueless and then Bloom was clueless and wasted an entire season of Sale’s career by waiting until COVID was upon the world to let Sale get the surgery.
Hope that answers your question. If not, please ask it again.
Joe – As I have explained in many responses I am providing a technique used by many forecasters that is tied to the individiual series and strength of schedule. When you apply your tecnnique for guessing the future you mask in some type of hypothetical accuracy to make yourself feel good about your predictions and you can brag about them. When you are wrong then you say nothing.
I’m the opposite in 2020 the team stunk as predicted and I was right and you weren’t. In 2021, I expected similar results to 2020 so the assumptions that went into my series match-ups were not as positive as yours were as a devout Red Sox fan. Your heart and hope for the Red Sox lives in your predictions. I use a pragmatic approach to evaluating and predicting future series match-ups.
So in the end I was more right in 2020 and 2022 and you were more accurate in 2021 when the team far exceeded expectations. Is it surprising that guy who incorporates his fandom into his estimates was more right that year? Absolutely not. Does it make sense that pragmatic guy was right in 2020 and 2022? Absolutely.
2023 is similar to 2021 in that the team has performed above it’s skill level and that usually means the forecast which contains huge amounts of optimism will be more accurate than it should be.
As of today, my 74 win forcast based on strength of schedule is 7 games off with 43 games left. We have no idea whether that will grow or shrink but we do know that like 2021 this is the type of year when the team over performs that benefits your guesses. Just like 2020 and 2022 benefited mine because they played close to their talent level.
You have no magical wand in predicting. You are an optimist.that’s all. Nothing wrong being an optimist unless you take cheap shots at others because the years the team over performs their predictions aren’t as good as yours and you ignore the other half of the seasons when theirs are better than yours because the team performs as expected based on talent level.
Trollfree
Name the starting composition of Red Sox on 2020, of without Sale, Rodriguez, Benny, JBJ, closer that a command remained under a tax barrier in $208 milion, in her composition there was complete starting five and they could fight for a place in a play-off.
Bogie – For you to suggest that my methodology for forecasting each series would cause me to change my stage name is so naive. I can’t help but think you are a very young and immature person.
I tried to avoid harassment from you and others who can’t handle being disagreed with and proven wrong with data. I also did it to show the authorities just how many times you and others have sought out abuse of my comments so the history is abundantly clear should their be a harassment case in the future. Thank you for playing along and proving just how much you are trolling me on this site. The evidence is now overwhelming.
I am a bit worried about your last comment because it suggests a dangerously disturbed person who would care so much about a standard formula for predicting seasons that has been employed for over 2 decades. To think that the technique used is somehow tied to my identity or self worth can only describe a mind in deep trouble. I hope you get some help with your issues.
My technique for predicting series was not created by me I just find it the most accurate over the long run but it’s based on one key premise, the amount of talent on the team in a particular season. The minute Boston lost Mookie it’s talent level dropped significantly. Losing Bogey, Nate and JD dropped it even more than when Mookie was forced out. The exceptional play by below league average players in 2023 has artificially boosted the 2023 results and like I told Joe his optimistic guesses are doing well due to the over performance of an under talented Red Sox roster.
I’m not in competition with Joe with regard to laying out suggested future records of the team. I use a scientific technique with my opinion of the skill level of the team and he uses his heart. Neither one is better. They both will provide results that vary based on the “luck” of each season. I out performed him in 2020 and 2022 and he outperformed my technique in lucky 2021 and now in lucky 2023. Nothing wrong with optimism. You will always beat the experts in predicting optimistic results if you let your heart be the guiding force behind your prediction. It’s the other years that your predictions pale in comparison.
Trollfree
Did I pursue you?
Lol!!!!
For you a self-appraisal is too overpriced.
Learn to acknowledge the errors and people will not have claims to you.
We talk only about baseball.
Bogey, JD, Eovaldi replaced perfectly,Yoshi, Turner, Paxton.
Why didn’t Dombrowski sign the long-term contracts of with Bogey and Betts after 2016, it was clear that fellows are talented and to lock them in that moment was logical and not to wait arbitrage years?
Trollfree
I’m a bit worried about your last comment because it suggests a dangerously disturbed person who would care so much about a standard formula for predicting seasons that has been employed for over 2 decades. To think that the technique used is somehow tied to my identity or self worth can only describe a mind in deep trouble. I hope you get some help with your issues.
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I am not interested by the formula of prognostication and I did not give prognoses for Red Sox on this web-site, if you will find my prognosis that is documented I will bring the apologies.
Alike that problems for you with a self-appraisal.
“I tried to avoid harassment from you and others”
You poor dear . It must have been so hard.
I understood one, that this man is very heavy to acknowledge the mistakes.
==========================
Stephanie Klein, who I don’t really care for, said one very interesting thing. She said honesty is among the interesting of personality traits. Among me and my derelict friends, we not only acknowledge our mistakes, we make a joke out of them.
And I for one, will gladly acknowledge the ineptitude of my off-season wish list.
Bogie – As an astute fan of the game I’m sure you realize that the trend for those types of deals started after Dombrowski moved on AND you need to look at what was happening when he was brought in to fix the ship.
1 – Big Papi was retiring
2 – The Red Sox needed pitching
3 – The baggage left by Cherington was costing ownership a ton of money
4 – In 2016 Mookie Betts made $566K and was under control through 2020
5 – In 2016 Bogaerts was making $650.5 K and was under control through 2019
Clearly, jacking up the payroll when he first arrived rather than signing Price, Sale and JD would have been a huge mistake. But you knew that right?
Bogie – Clearly what I wrote was too much for you to comprehend. I was pointing out that your suggestion that I might hide due to my statistical presentation of wins predicted not being precise was an insight into your thought process that should scare anyone reading it. Nobody cares if a prediction is right or wrong to the degree you think it matters.
That’s why your opinions are so obtuse or to make it simple for you why they are so exaggerated. My data is my data and my life doesn’t get impacted if someone thinks it’s wrong. I still do my daily routines without a care in the world for what people like you write. That should be obvious by now.
I will give you credit though, you used the word prognostication correctly!!
Joe Sinister – It’s hard to tell which other writer you are masking yourself as but hey thanks for chiming in on something that has nothing to do with you. You must be a 1 off troll. Good to meet you and document your comments and how they were completely unsolicited. Thanks
Trollfree
4 – In 2016 Mookie Betts made $566K and was under control through 2020
5 – In 2016 Bogaerts was making $650.5 K and was under control through 2019
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After 2016, Bogaerts entered into a 1st arbitration ($4.5 m AAV), Betts last pre – arb, therefore a logical step was to offer a long-term contract even one of them :
Betts 10/$200m ($20 AAV) or Bogey 7/$120m ($17.14 AAV) is not exceeded the first tax threshold of REd Sox on 2017 and its would make:
$196 million with Betts or $189.5 million with Bogey.
Tax Treshold 2017 – $202 million.
Trollfree
Clearly, jacking up the payroll when he first arrived rather than signing Price, Sale and JD would have been a huge mistake. But you knew that right?
_____________________________________________________
They were signed in different seasons:
Price signed Dec.2015
Sale signed Dec.2016
JD signed Feb.2018
Dombrowski took a situation to the that point when such home-bred talents as – Bogey, Betts, Bradley began sharply to rise in price in an arbitration after 2018, prolonged Sale and Eovaldi (2019) with already present histories of injury on long contracts inflicted a damage to the club not less than than contracts of Cherington with Ramirez and Sandoval because a help in a starting rotation from the system of farms wasn’t foreseen in the near time and the injury of SP happen constantly the more apt to the injuries.
Certainly, it very comfortably to fly on Bloom with claims, why he didn’t sign Betts on an expensive extension when before him guidance put an aim to bring down a threshold tax from 243 million (2019) below 208 million, at possibility to fight in 2020 – without Sale (TJS), Rodriguez (Heart), Porcello FA, Benny (IL – 60), closer and with garbage bullpen.
Trollfree
As an astute fan of the game I’m sure you realize that the trend for those types of deals started after Dombrowski moved on AND you need to look at what was happening when he was brought in to fix the ship.
____________________________________________________________
I’m enough to look at that he did with Tigers.
And to compare situations at when DD and CB became GM uncorrectly because absolutely different tasks decided.
Trollfree
That’s why your opinions are so obtuse or to make it simple for you why they are so exaggerated. My data is my data and my life doesn’t get impacted if someone thinks it’s wrong. I still do my daily routines without a care in the world for what people like you write. That should be obvious by now.
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1) I think if it was indifferently you you so would not react on my posts.
2) I never afforded somehow to offend you and did not name your opinion obtuse.
3)If you left the post on this web-site be so ready that other users will have another opinions on that score.
4) Behave correctly.
5) Don’t you think that to offend an absolutely unknown man in the internet only because for him other opinion – this trash?
Bogie – DD had bigger fish to fry. He got Sale and JD rather than extend a young player like the current trend because at that time there was no trend to do that. You must be young to not realize the world was different in 2016 to 2018 than it is now or ever since COVID.
After the 2018 season – 2 years prior to free agency Boston low-balled Mookie’s agent thanks to the owners trying to get their traditional home town discount that has plagued them for two decades. That was a big point of contention between DD and ownership. He expected to pay fair market value to Mookie and they balked at doing that. DD did what he could. He extended Bogey for 3 years at below market value. Mookie simply refused because he was offended by the treatment of Price and other minority players. He wanted to be paid a fair price, which he got and more in LA.
Did you not realize DD extended Bogey at a below market price? Shouldn’t you be complimenting him for that? Remember, DD set everything up to last from 2016 to 2022. 2023 was to be his retooling year. Mookie’s contract was only through 2020 so his focus was on moving ownership to paying him a fair price since he was by far the best player on the team. They fired DD for his insistence on paying fair market value. That’s why we have the cheap guy now that doesn’t pay anyone other than Devers big bucks, the guy who can’t field!!! hahaha What a bad GM!!!
Bogie – I need a translator for that last comment.
If you are suggesting Dombrowski has not been a huge influence in winning wherever he has been GM you are simply wrong. If you are suggesting like some fools do that after he left things were worse because of him, you are wrong. Bad GMs made bad decisioins after he left each organization and Bloom may be the worst of them. Why would anyone get rid of JD Martinez from DET along with Scherzer and Verlander? That’s on the guy after him not him. Why would anyone in their right mind give up Mookie, Bogey, JD, Eovaldi and Benny? That’s all on Bloom.
The step down each organization felt after DD left was caused by the horrendous choices for subsequent GMs. It’s revisionist history to suggest any of the locations didn’t thrive with DD and fall off because of him after he left. They failed based on bad decisions after he left, just like Boston has failed miserably by hiring Bloom.
Trollfree
If you are suggesting Dombrowski has not been a huge influence in winning wherever he has been GM you are simply wrong. If you are suggesting like some fools do that after he left things were worse because of him, you are wrong
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I don’t understate the merits of DD and never talked that Dave is bad GM or he didn’t have influence on victory of Red Sox, but in the folded circumstances since 2019 it was interesting me how DD will go out from a situation with the system of farm.
You won’t deny a that fact, that with a starting rotation in minor leagues except Houck on approach nobody was in the nearest prospect to 2022 .
And these not very good contracts of Sale and Price that began to be more often injured didn’t add optimism.
Here and there is a reasonable question, why Dave didn’t put in the head of corner to work out expansion with Betts to 2018 .
If I, as, ordinary fan of Red Sox understood on a that moment, that in our hands player of generation, then Dave had to understand it the more.
Bogie – This is exactly what I mean about your trolling. It never stops and most of the time it lacks sentence structure and meaning.
You write “I think if it was indifferently you you so would not react on my posts”. That’s barely English. I think you meant if I was indifferent to you I would not respond to your posts. Clearly I am a humanitarian trying to salvage a lost sole.
“i never afforded somehow to offend you and did not name your opinion obtuse” A much more challenging attempt at English. I think you are denying something I wrote but it’s really hard to tell from what you wrote.
“If you left the post on this web-site be so ready that other users will have another opinions on the score” Again, the sentence structure makes this very difficult to translate.but I think you believe my action of posting comments are fair game for the insults you and other make rather than commenting about the baseball comments that I wrote. No that can’t be it. Sorry, I can’t translate that one.
Behave correctly. A bit too cryptic. I have no idea if you are saying going forward you will behave like an adult and respect other people or you disagree with my assessment that you are not behaving correctly for an adult site.
“Don’t you think that to offend an absolutely unknown man in the internet only because for him other opinion – this trash? Wow, another very challenging comment which makes no sense. My best guess is that you want to apologize for trashing me so often simply because I provided data that contradicted your opinion. No, I can’t picture you writing that. It’s probably negative, but it’s too obtuse to decipher.
Thanks for your response. I’ll take it as a heart felt apology.
Trollfree
I understood.
You corresponds to your profile on this web-site.