Cubs Notes: Stroman, Smyly, Deadline

The Cubs are on the verge of getting a big arm back as they try to keep pace in the National League Wild Card chase and in the NL Central. Manager David Ross said yesterday (link via MLB.com) that “all signs point” to Marcus Stroman returning to the team on Wednesday, when he’s first eligible to return from a stay on the 15-day injured list. Stroman added that he’s “in a way better space” following the downtime, suggesting that the hip injury which has plagued him ultimately led him to try to compensate — and thus compromise his mechanics.

Stroman, 32, was excellent for his first 16 starts this season, pitching to a 2.28 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate, an 8.8% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. His .235 average on balls in play and 80.2% strand rate both appeared bound for regression, but not to the extent that transpired. In his next seven starts, Stroman was shelled for 30 runs in 30 innings. His strikeout rate dipped to 18.8% and his grounder rate fell to 52.9% — all while his walk rate spiked up to 10.9%.

Overall, Stroman’s 3.85 ERA in 128 2/3 innings is still a solid mark on the season — one that likely puts him in position to turn down his 2024 player option at season’s end. Stroman could pick up said option and lock in a $21MM salary for the upcoming season, but he’s far likelier to return to free agency in search of another multi-year contract (which he’ll very likely find). The right-hander sports a 3.35 ERA, 21% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 53.3% ground-ball rate over his past 630 2/3 big league innings, dating back to 2019. He’s also already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive another one. As such, teams interested in signing the righty won’t have to worry about draft-pick compensation.

Stroman’s impending return to the rotation comes at a time when the Cubs have been shuffling the starting staff. The Cubs bumped left-hander Drew Smyly to the bullpen over the weekend, though Ross told reporters that the move would only be “for a short amount of time” (link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). The hope will be that moving into relief work for a bit will give the struggling lefty something of a reset. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy noted that “getting guys in the bullpen in short bursts to reset and get your mind back into attacking the strike zone and simplifying things” can sometimes help pitchers turn a corner.

It’s indeed been a rough patch for the 34-year-old Smyly, who returned to the Cubs on a two-year, $19MM contract in the offseason. Like Stroman, Smyly was excellent through mid-June, notching a 3.38 ERA in 82 2/3 innings. And like Stroman, Smyly went on to pitch to a jarring 9.00 ERA over his next several starts (seven appearances, 35 innings). Smyly’s strikeout and walk rates remained sound — his strikeout rate actually increased — but he’s been extraordinarily homer-prone during this slump, yielding an average of 3.09 round-trippers per nine innings pitched. Smyly owned his struggles and said he’s willing to pitch in whatever role the team wants; he tossed a scoreless inning this weekend in his first relief appearance of the year.

With Stroman returning and Smyly shifting into the ’pen for the time being, rookie Javier Assad could continue to see some work out of the rotation. The 26-year-old’s last two appearances have been starts, and he’s allowed a pair of runs on nine hits and three walks with five strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. Assad has a 3.12 ERA on the season, though his pedestrian 18.1% strikeout rate and hefty 10.5% walk rate point to some possible regression. For now, he’s in the mix alongside Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks.

It’s been a remarkable turnaround for the Cubs — a well-timed resurgence that brought the team from the brink of selling at the trade deadline to instead adding infielder Jeimer Candelario and righty Jose Cuas. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic chronicled the team’s rise from likely seller to clear-cut buyer in a piece that Cubs fans, in particular, will want to check out in full. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer discussed the team’s approach with Rosenthal, revealing that the Cubs told inquiring clubs they planned to wait until concluding a four-game series with the Cardinals on July 30 before making a call on their approach.

The second game of that series ended in dramatic fashion, with Cubs outfielder Mike Tauchman robbing Alec Burleson of what would’ve been a walk-off home run. That catch seemingly sealed the Cubs’ direction. It was reported the next day that Cody Bellinger had been taken off the trade market. Hoyer tells Rosenthal that over the course of the weekend, the tone and nature of incoming calls from other clubs quickly changed. Less than 72 hours after Tauchman’s catch, the Cubs acquired Candelario from the Nationals. Rosenthal’s column is full of quotes from Hoyer, Ross, Tauchman, Dansby Swanson, Yan Gomes and others on the team’s rise from a 26-36 club mid-June to their current 61-57 record. The Cubs are 3.5 games out of first place in the Central and just a half-game back the Wild Card standings.