We’re now about three quarters of the way through the regular season, and the free-agent landscape has changed considerably since our last power rankings back in June. With the trade market passed, we now know who will and won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer at season’s end. (Traded players cannot receive a QO.) Max Scherzer needn’t be listed at the back of the list or among the honorable mentions now that he’s agreed to pick up next year’s player option as part of the condition of his trade to Texas. Injuries, performance trends — both good and bad — and many other factors all contribute to shifts in market expectation.
As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Age, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.
Our Power Rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.
*=Player option/opt-out opportunity
**=Currently playing in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Angels
Eligible for qualifying offer
The baseball world is still reeling from this week’s news that Ohtani has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament for the second time in his career. He won’t pitch again this season, and surgery — be it Tommy John or an internal brace — is firmly on the table. For now, he’ll continue to serve as the Angels’ DH as he and the team receive outside opinions on his damaged ligament.
There’s no way around the fact that Ohtani’s injury represents a massive blow to his earning power — but perhaps not to the extent that many fans would think. Ohtani is still the best player on the planet, doing things that we simply haven’t seen in our lifetimes — arguably ever before. The 29-year-old’s .304/.409/.659 batting line puts him 80% ahead of the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, and prior to his injury, he’d run up 132 innings of 3.14 ERA ball.
Ohtani ranks seventh in the Majors in batting average, second in on-base percentage, first in slugging percentage (by more than 60 points), tenth in ERA and third in strikeout percentage (as a pitcher). We’ve grown almost accustomed to this level of excellence, but the manner in which he permeates both the offensive and pitching leaderboards in Major League Baseball is nothing short of prodigious.
Certainly, it’s an open question as to whether Ohtani will pitch at all next year. By the time he’s reached free agency, we’ll likely know the answer to that question. Depending on whether he needs surgery — and, if so, which surgery he requires — it’s possible he’ll miss the beginning of the 2024 season. Bryce Harper had offseason Tommy John surgery this past year and returned to the Phillies on May 2. Ohtani himself had his first Tommy John surgery in October 2018 and was back on the field as a designated hitter on May 7 the following year.
Even if Ohtani is ruled out from pitching next year, any team signing him would be paying for one of the game’s best hitters — and for a potential return to the mound in 2025. It’s fair to wonder just how long Ohtani can continue pitching and hitting simultaneously and do so at elite levels, but he’s spent the past three years proving those who doubted his preternatural talents wrong. The ultra-competitive Ohtani will surely try to do so again; there’s little reason to think he’d move on from pitching due to a second surgery. What shape that eventually takes — limiting him to five innings most starts, affording him extra rest throughout the season, moving him to the bullpen, etc. — will likely depend on the team with which he eventually signs.
Regardless of Ohtani’s future on the mound, he’ll probably still set the record for largest free agent contract ever. That may sound outlandish to some at first glance, but consider the fact that Ohtani will reach the market two years younger than Aaron Judge was when he scored a $360MM guarantee. Judge landed that record sum as a 31-year-old who ostensibly only had three competitive bidders: the incumbent Yankees, his hometown Giants, and the late-bidding Padres. Ohtani will draw interest from a larger number of teams. And, as marketable as Judge is, Ohtani is even more so. The additional revenues he’d generate from his global fan base can’t be overlooked.
Moreover, Ohtani only seems to be getting better at the plate. After striking out at 28.1% clip through his first four seasons, he dropped that number to 24.2% last year. The lowered strikeout rate also came with a dip in walk rate (down to 10.8%), but this year he’s maintained that improved strikeout rate while bumping his walk rate back to 14.2%. Ohtani is also just two home runs shy of his career-high and looks like a lock to reach 50 home runs. His .360 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-high. Ohtani’s 94.9 mph average exit velocity trails only Judge, and his 118.3 mph maximum exit velo this season trails only Matt Olson. No player has hit a ball further than Ohtani’s MLB-best 493 feet, per Statcast.
Ohtani’s second UCL tear could shorten his 2024 season and might necessitate extra care for his arm when he returns to the mound — be that late in the 2024 season or early in the 2025 campaign. But he’s probably going to pitch again — he’ll certainly try to — and even if he doesn’t, he’s hitting the market as one of baseball’s premier offensive players in advance of his age-29 season. Plus, if Ohtani were to ever give up pitching, he wouldn’t be “just” a designated hitter, as many detractors have suggested. Ohtani is no stranger to the outfield, having played there during his NPB days. Statcast still credits him with 65th percentile sprint speed, and there’s no questioning his raw athleticism and arm strength. There’s little reason to think he couldn’t at least be a serviceable corner outfielder.
Age and elite offensive performance on their own still ought to push Ohtani past Judge this winter. The only question will be how far beyond Judge he can ultimately club. Securing the first $400MM free agent contract in history feels attainable even with the questions surrounding his arm. Time will tell if $500MM+ remains on the table.
2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, Cubs
Eligible for qualifying offer
Bellinger jumps from unranked on our last list to the No. 2 spot in a matter of just two months. At the time of our June list, he’d just been reinstated from the injured list and was mired in what turned out to be a fleeting slump. We listed Bellinger as an honorable mention and considered him for a spot near the bottom of the list, but felt he needed to improve his stock a bit. He’s done that — and then some.
Not many one-year, make-good deals have gone as well as Bellinger’s remarkable bounceback season. Non-tendered by the Dodgers after shoulder surgery left him a shell of his former Rookie of the Year and MVP self from 2021-22, Bellinger now looks to be back in a big way. The 2019 Most Valuable Player is batting .320/.368/.552 with 20 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple and 17 steals in 20 tries. The most alarming element of his downturn in 2021-22 was a strikeout rate that ballooned to 27.1%, but Bellinger is now punching out at a career-low 15.5% rate.
Bellinger’s rebound isn’t without red flags, as I noted last week when profiling his season at greater length. He missed more than a month with a knee injury, and in more under-the-radar fashion, the quality of his contact is just nowhere near as good as it was at his peak. Bellinger is averaging 87.2 mph off the bat — four miles per hour slower than during his MVP season. A hefty 45.6% of his batted balls left the bat at 95 mph+ in 2019; he’s at 30.8% in 2023. He’ll also receive and reject a qualifying offer, though for free agents of this caliber, that’s rarely a significant deterrent.
The Cubs have played Bellinger both at first base and in center field this season, and he’ll draw interest from teams with visions of playing him at first base and across all three outfield spots. He drew plus ratings from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in his return to first base, and he’s been credited with +4 OAA in center field this year. Teams will see Bellinger as a versatile and above-average defender at multiple spots on the field.
The other factors to consider with Bellinger are age and market scarcity. He won’t turn 29 until July 13 of next season, meaning next year will technically be considered his age-28 season. (July 1 is the typical cutoff for such designations.) He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent, and he happens to hit the market in a year where there’s not only a lack of quality outfielders/first baseman — but a lack of quality bats overall.
Bellinger is at least two years younger than each of Kris Bryant ($182MM), Brandon Nimmo ($162MM) and George Springer ($150MM) were when they hit free agency. He’s having a better offensive platform year than any of that group at the plate. Bellinger and Scott Boras will likely be seeking $200MM+ in free agency this time around, and there’s a real chance he’ll get it.
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes**
Ineligible for qualifying offer
At the time of our June list, Yamamoto was sitting on a 1.98 ERA in 68 1/3 frames, positioning him to potentially finish the season with his fourth sub-2.00 ERA in the past five years. Since that time, he’s allowed five total runs in 51 2/3 frames. His 0.87 ERA in that stretch has dropped his season mark to 1.50 over the life of 120 innings. He’s averaging seven innings per start in NPB this year.
If age was worth mentioning with regard to Bellinger, it’s worth focusing on in near-singular fashion with Yamamoto, who turned 25 just last week. Yamamoto is one of the most accomplished pitchers in NPB — widely regarded as the second-best league in the world — despite the fact that he’s around the same age as some of the yet-to-debut names that populate top prospect lists here in North America. He went straight from the NPB draft into the Buffaloes’ rotation, and while his 5.32 ERA as a rookie wasn’t exactly captivating, Yamamoto followed with a 2.10 ERA in 2019 and has been established as an ace-caliber pitcher ever since.
Most MLB free agents hit the market between 29 and 31 years of age. There are occasional 28-year-old free agents, and even more rarely we’ll see a 27-year-old or even 26-year-old, if said player reached the big leagues as some kind of youthful phenom. Yamamoto will be signing a contract beginning with his age-25 season — a virtually unprecedented age for a top-of-the-rotation arm to reach the market. A six-year deal for him would run through only his age-30 season — the same age at which many MLB free agents are just getting to market. It’s always hard to predict how the market might react to star players coming over from NPB or the Korea Baseball Organization, but Yamamoto’s blend of age and performance is basically unprecedented. It’s easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years — possibly even more — based on his youth. Presumably, Yamamoto’s camp could look to work some opt-out opportunities into any deal as well.
Yamamoto isn’t a true free agent; he’ll need to be posted by the Buffaloes, though it’s widely expected they’ll do just that. Any team that signs Yamamoto would owe his former club a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter (including options, incentives, awards bonuses, etc.). On a $200MM deal, for instance, the signing team would owe an additional $31.875MM release fee.
Predicting contracts for foreign stars is always something of a dice roll — far more than standard MLB free agents, where precedent is more abundant. Yamamoto lacks any true comparables in terms of market context seasons, but the demand for him should be fierce.
4. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers
Eligible for qualifying offer
To call the 2023 season an “uneven” one for Urias would be a bit of an understatement. The southpaw got out to a strong start through his first four turns on the mound, stumbled badly over his next five appearances, and hit the injured list with a hamstring strain. Urias was set to return after just a few weeks but suffered a setback and wound up missing nearly two months with the injury. Upon his return, he was rocked for five runs in three innings, sending his ERA ballooning to 4.94. He was dominant for his next two turns (one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio) … then blown up for eight runs in Baltimore.
The pendulum swung back in the other direction following that outing, and Urias is still on the upswing. In his past five starts, he’s posted a 2.03 ERA. Overall, Urias has a 4.15 ERA on the season and a 3.88 ERA since returning from the injured list. Much of the damage done against him this season has been confined to five brutal outings.
Urias isn’t a power arm. He’s averaging 92.9 mph on his fastball this season — a career-low, but barely down from the 93.1 mph he averaged in 2022 when he posted a 2.16 ERA in 175 frames. He’s never been a huge strikeout pitcher, and this year’s 24.1% rate is in line with his previous levels: solidly above average, but far from elite. However, he’s always boasted exceptional command, and his 4.9% walk rate in 2023 is the best of his career. His walk rate ranks 10th among the 93 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 innings this season and is only 0.1% behind the three pitchers ahead of him on the list (Joe Ryan, Miles Mikolas, Zack Wheeler).
Urias is a tough free agent to peg. From 2018-22, he logged a brilliant 2.61 ERA in 499 1/3 innings, but due largely to a .252 BABIP and 79.8% strand rate, fielding-independent metrics were far less bullish (3.42 FIP, 3.80 SIERA). And, because of early-career shoulder surgery, Urias’ workload was limited aggressively until the 2021 season. He’s only made 30 starts in a season twice (2021 and 2022), and he won’t reach that level in 2023. Urias was also arrested in May 2019 after video reportedly showed him shoving a female companion to the ground. Major League Baseball subsequently suspended him for 20 games under the joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Though it was several years ago, that still figures to weigh into the evaluation process for many teams.
The biggest factor Urias will have on his side in free agency will be age. Because he debuted as a 19-year-old, he’s reaching the open market at just 27 years of age. He won’t turn 28 until next August. Because of that youth, Urias could be in line for a lengthier contract than the standard pitcher, which is why he and Yamamoto stand as the top non-Ohtani pitchers on this ranking. Even an eight-year deal would only run through the left-hander’s age-34 season.
5. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays
Eligible for qualifying offer
Chapman’s first month of the 2023 season was something to behold. When I wrote about his brilliant start to the season in early May, the two-time Platinum Glove winner was raking at a .338/.425/.579 clip. He’d “only” homered five times in six weeks but was already up to 17 doubles. As noted at the time, he’d struck out at a considerably lower rate than past seasons in April but had begun to swing and miss more in May. “If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play,” I wrote at the time.
Unfortunately — the whiffs indeed snowballed. Chapman fanned at just a 22.8% clip through the end of April, but he’s gone down on strikes in 29.5% of his plate appearances since that time. Since that look at Chapman’s sensational start to the season … he’s batted .212/.302/.373 (88 wRC+).
On the whole, Chapman’s season has still been productive. His .250/.339/.435 slash is 15% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. He’s ripped 15 home runs, 35 doubles and a triple in 507 plate appearances and drawn walks at a very strong 11% clip. More encouraging is the fact that when Chapman makes contact, he’s absolutely scorching the ball. This year’s 93.7 mph average exit velocity is in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. Only Aaron Judge and Matt Olson have put a higher percentage of their batted balls in play at 95 mph or more than Chapman’s outrageous 57.2%.
That batted-ball profile will undoubtedly intrigue many teams. Chapman will be viewed as something of an “upside” play with the bat, which is a strange way to characterize someone who we’re ranking fifth in earning power among this year’s free agents. That said, Chapman’s power, ability to draw walks and elite defense give him a high floor, and the elite level of his contact and his prior track record suggest something closer to an MVP-level ceiling. Defensive Runs Saved credits Chapman at +11 this year, while Outs Above Average is at +4. He’s never ranked as a negative in either category.
Both Trevor Story (six years, $140MM) and Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM) secured deals well north of $100MM due in large part to their strong gloves and offensive ceilings. Kris Bryant landed $182MM coming off a comparable (albeit better) offensive year — despite lacking anything close to Chapman’s defensive value. Story and Swanson got those contracts despite having turned down qualifying offers. Chapman will turn down a QO as well, and even with the way his bat has sputtered since the first month of the season, he’ll still have a case to end up somewhere in this general range.
6. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Rangers
Ineligible for qualifying offer
Few pitchers have elevated their stock more than Montgomery in recent seasons. The 30-year-old southpaw — 31 in December — missed most of the 2018-19 seasons due to Tommy John surgery and posted a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts during the shortened 2020 campaign. Montgomery’s strikeout, walk and grounder rates all remained sharp during that ugly season, though, creating some optimism that he could yet bounce back.
He’s done more than bounce back in the three years since. Montgomery reestablished himself as a viable big league starter in 2021, but he’s steadily elevated himself to No. 2-3 starter status — and he only seems to be getting better. Dating back to 2021, Montgomery has piled up 482 2/3 innings and recorded an impressive 3.49 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 45.5% grounder rate and just 1.01 HR/9. He spent two weeks on the Covid-related injured list in 2021 but has otherwise avoided the IL entirely since returning from Tommy John surgery.
The 2023 season, in particular, is shaping up to be the best of Montgomery’s career. He’s posted a minuscule 1.73 ERA in four starts since being traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers, dropping his season-long mark to a career-best 3.12. Montgomery’s 93.6 mph average fastball is the best of his career. He’s striking hitters out at only a league-average level but also limiting walks at a considerably better-than-average rate and inducing grounders at an above-average clip.
Montgomery may not stand out in any one way, but he boasts average or better skills across the board and has shaken off that early ligament replacement surgery to establish himself as a durable mid-rotation starter. His results, peripherals and general durability are all superior to those of Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) last offseason. Because he was traded midseason, he can’t receive a qualifying offer.
Many will be tempted to lump Montgomery into the Walker/Taillon bucket, but he’s been the best pitcher of that trio and is heading into free agency on a high note. Taillon and Walker feel like more of a floor than anything else for Montgomery, who ought to be able to command a fifth guaranteed year. With a strong and healthy finish to the season, he could secure a nine-figure deal.
7. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies
Eligible for qualifying offer
Nola, who turned 30 this summer, has been a standard of durability for the past six years. He hasn’t gone on the injured list with a non-virus issue since 2017. No pitcher has started more games or logged more innings since the start of 2018. For the bulk of that time, he has paired that league-best durability with at least high-end #2 starter results.
The right-hander has six sub-4.00 ERA seasons under his belt, including a 3.25 mark over 205 innings a season ago. From a run prevention perspective, he’s struggling through a relative down year in 2023. Nola has allowed 4.49 earned runs per nine through 26 appearances. The longball has been the big culprit, as he has already surrendered a personal-high 29 homers in 160 1/3 innings (1.63 HR/9).
Nola has lost a few punchouts as well, although he’s still missing bats at an above-average rate. His 25.2% strikeout percentage is his lowest rate in six years but above the 22% league mark for starters. While his whiffs were way down early in the season, he has a characteristic 28.2% strikeout rate going back to the start of June. The homers have become even more of an issue as the summer has drawn on, but Nola’s strikeout and walk profile of the past three months has resembled that of his entire career.
A pitcher’s home run rate can vary season-to-season. Nola’s ground-ball percentages have nosedived over the past couple years, though. This looks as if it’ll be his second campaigns in the last three years with a middling ERA, as he posted a 4.63 mark in 2021. Nola’s ERA has been above estimators like FIP and SIERA for three years running. Will teams attribute that primarily to poor luck and the lackluster defenses the Phils have turn out behind him, or to something in Nola’s repertoire that makes him more hittable than his strikeout and walk profile would suggest?
The Phils and Nola had some extension conversations during the spring but didn’t appear to get close to a deal. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer. A five or six year deal topping nine figures should still be attainable, but it’d be easier to project Nola approaching or beating the $162MM which Carlos Rodon received last winter were it not for the home run concerns.
8. Lucas Giolito, SP, Angels
Ineligible for qualifying offer
Aside from the unique cases of Ohtani and Yamamoto, Giolito was the top pitcher in our late-June rankings. The right-hander was sitting on a 3.41 ERA at the time but has allowed a 5.92 mark in nine starts since that point. That’s primarily a reflection of two absolute clunkers — an eight-run drubbing by the Mets on July 18 and nine runs at the hands of the Braves during his first start as an Angel on August 2.
Largely because of those outings, Giolito’s season ERA has jumped to 4.32. Home runs have been an issue, particularly since he landed in Anaheim, but the rest of his profile is generally solid. Giolito hasn’t maintained the form he flashed from 2019-20, when he struck out a third of opponents in consecutive seasons with a sub-3.50 ERA. He now looks the part of a solid #3 starter, fanning a quarter of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate while averaging just under six innings per start.
His velocity is right in line with last year’s mark. His 12.2% swinging strike rate — while down from its 2019-21 peak — is a bit better than average. While Giolito’s small sample ERA with the Angels sits at 6.67, his repertoire, whiffs and control are all in line with his early-season work in Chicago. It’s likely teams will consider his tough first month in Orange County a blip and more or less continue to view him as an above-average, durable starting pitcher.
Giolito turned 29 last month. He’s a year younger than Nola, Snell and Montgomery but markedly older than Urias and Yamamoto. Since he was traded midseason, clubs wouldn’t have to forfeit a draft choice to sign him (as they would for Snell, Nola and Urias). While the past month has been a disaster for the Angels, Giolito’s free agent stock shouldn’t be much different than it was six weeks ago. Given his age, a six-year deal still seems plausible.
9. Blake Snell, SP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer
Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young winner, has become the veritable embodiment of the “mercurial” and “volatile” adjectives that are often used to describe pitchers. The 30-year-old looked lost early in the season, logging a 5.40 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in his first nine starts. Since then, he’s been perhaps the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Over his past 17 starts, Snell has pitched 97 innings with a 1.48 ERA.
One might be tempted to assume that Snell has corrected the command troubles that dragged him down early on — but that’s not the case. Snell has continued walking more than 13% of his opponents during this stretch, with the primary difference being a massive spike in strikeouts (from 23.8% up to 34.8%) and grounders (37% to 49.7%). Snell has scaled back the usage of his heater in that time, deferring to more changeups and curveballs. The formula has worked beautifully. Snell ranks seventh in the Majors in Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR (3.7) and trails only Arizona’s Zac Gallen with 4.8 RA9-WAR.
Ace-level results from Snell aren’t exactly anything new. Again, he’s a former Cy Young winner. However, Snell has struggled to stay healthy, and his penchant for deep counts and walking batters has frequently led to early exits from games. Snell has averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start in his big league career. That’s not exactly a reflection of the Rays’ affinity for quick hooks on their starting pitchers either; Snell’s 5.17 innings per start since his trade to the Padres is nearly identical to his 5.15 innings per start in Tampa Bay. Even during this year’s dominant effort, he’s averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing.
In terms of his per-inning performance and his overall raw stuff, Snell is one of the most appealing pitchers in baseball. But he’s also lacked both consistency and efficiency throughout his career, and he’s been on the injured list due to an adductor strain (twice), a fractured toe, loose bodies in his elbow and gastrointeritis since winning that 2018 Cy Young Award. This year’s 142 innings are already the second-highest total of his career. Snell will also have to contend with a qualifying offer, which he’ll surely reject in search of a longer-term deal.
Snell undoubtedly has his flaws, but over the past calendar year he’s made 33 starts and posted a 2.51 ERA with a 31.8% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate, 42.8% grounder rate and just 0.84 homers per nine innings. He’s pitched 183 innings in that time — just shy of 5 2/3 frames per outing. There’s plenty of reason for caution, but Snell at his best is a legitimate Game 1 starter in a postseason series. Volatility notwithstanding, he could land a nine-figure deal of five or more years in length.
10. Josh Hader, RP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer
While some of the names on this list have struggled since the June edition of our Power Rankings, Hader has been the opposite. He’s tossed 16 shutout innings since that day, allowing just six hits and punching out 44.6% of his opponents. The 29-year-old now boasts a career-low 0.81 ERA in 44 2/3 innings on the season. He’s carrying a 39.9% strikeout rate, and while his 13.5% walk rate remains high, that’s easier to get away with when two out of every five hitters that come to the plate fall to a strikeout.
There was some concern surrounding Hader as he slumped in the weeks preceding and immediately following last year’s trade to the Padres. He righted the ship following a six-run meltdown in late August, however. Since shaking off that disastrous outing, Hader has pitched 61 1/3 innings of 0.74 ERA ball with a 39.7% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s still primarily a fly-ball pitcher, but Hader’s 36.3% ground-ball rate is a pretty big jump from the 27.4% mark he posted from 2018-22. He’s using the sinker he implemented in 2022 more than ever this year, and while his 2.6% homer-to-flyball rate is bound to regress, this year’s pristine 0.20 HR/9 is also at least partially influenced by that uptick in grounders.
Hader will receive and reject a qualifying offer. That’s a risk for most relievers, but it’s a slam dunk for Hader, who could become the highest-paid relief pitcher ever within the next few months. He’ll be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the reliever record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. Barring a catastrophic collapse or a disastrously timed injury, Hader will take aim at making Diaz’s record and have a good chance at making it short-lived.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader (OF), Jeimer Candelario (3B), Sonny Gray (SP), Teoscar Hernandez (OF/DH), Shota Imanaga (SP)**, Michael Lorenzen (SP), Yuki Matsui (RP)**, Eduardo Rodriguez (SP)*, Jorge Soler (DH/OF)*, Marcus Stroman (SP)*
No way Bellinger should be that high on the list. He has just as many bad years as good years. Cubs are going to pay him and regret it
Completely ignoring the reasons for his bad years isn’t going to work.
Neither is ignoring the red flags that have come with his bounceback.
ignoring the reasons for his bad years
============================
I have “25% k-rate” in the pool.
What reasons exactly? I’ve never seen them explained.
BABip 50 points higher than his career average.
Exit velocity 3 mph below his career numbers and far below league average. 18th percentile.
Hard hit % (9th percentile) and barrel rate (28th percentile) far below league average. Walk % below league average. 39th percentile.
Any more red flags you would like to see?
Two major in-game injuries, a dislocated shoulder and a broken leg. The first required surgery. So, these reasons, exactly. Kind of astounding how many can have such strong opinions about about Bellinger’s abilities without even knowing this, let alone taking it into consideration. The Dodgers made a mistake by non-tendering him because he was a strong bounce back candidate when he could finally play again free of injury.
The fact that the Dodgers made a mistake non-tendering him has nothing to do with possible regression from his current campaign. His future production will likely be somewhere in-between the two extremes. That’s a fine player, but not one quite this good.
It has everything to do with it. The point being the conventional wisdom around here wasn’t very wise, and I sure don’t see anyone admitting that they got it wrong.
I think everyone agreed that he was a good bounce back candidate. I just don’t think anyone believes he can maintain the numbers he has put up this season. Too many indicators that point to regression. If it was just one, then maybe, but there are many.
Maybe he is a 260 hitter with an .800 OPS going forward, but even that is in question because of the lack of ability to hit the ball hard this season. Don’t get me wrong, that is still good, around a 115 OPS+ depending on where he is playing and combined with his defense makes him a valuable player. Just not $25-30 million worth that being the 2nd best FA hitter on the market would indicate.
No, I was there taking it in the shorts every time for suggesting that he was. I got no agreement whatsoever from anyone that I can recall. Whether he can keep up his current production is irrelevant to that point, and so is how much he’ll get paid next year.
Whether he can keep it up and his future contract IS the point of this article and the conversation about it.
That may be the point of this article, but it isn’t MY point. You might want to take a stroll down memory lane by looking at the comments on the articles about him being non-tendered. The vast majority of the opinions were how he was terrible, awful, stoned, unfixable, and a total long shot to be anything more than worthless. Lots of pretty nasty stuff. My point (again) is those assessments were proven wrong, and that nobody who had those opinions is now confessing to getting it wrong.
It’s the internet. No one ever said people are smart, nor that they would be willing to admit to past mistakes. But if you’re thin-skinned enough where you feel the need to be validated every time you end up being right about something, you’re going to walk a long and tiresome road. Best advice is to let it go and be happy on your own terms with or without the acknowledgment of others.
Seems like I’m not the one having a problem letting something go. But do you validate? Here’s my ticket!
Wow. Nice work.
Dodgers made the right decision on Bellinger. Two terrible seasons in a row and Dodgers decided to move on.
Bellinger shouldn’t of been that high. His exit velocity is 4 mph slower than his MVP year which is a sign that age has already caught up to him. He can’t generate the same bat speed and in this day and age of everyone throwing 95+ that’s a problem.
Another idiotic response about exit velocity.
Do you have idea why Bellingers stats are so good? Because his two strike approach. The guy is hitting nearly .300 with two strikes (with 22 RBIs) with a OPS in the low .700s, a guy on third, Cody is boasting an OPS over 1.000 with a ba over .300. Meaning, he’s changing his two strike approach to simply put the ball in play vs the modern day “screw the team, swing from the heels” approach most hitters have. Cody’s two strike approach and situational hitting has been top notch this year and is a large reason as to why he’s been so good (and why his exit velocity is down)
Thank you Drascoo—-all those terrible stuff and he’s hitting .320 with 20 homers and missed a month.
I will also argue that the shift “restriction” has helped him more than any other player than baseball—a good couple of those “low velocity” batted balls have been ground balls between the second baseman and shortstop, exactly where the shortstop would have been positioned last season.
Do I think that he’s a 7/200 player no—but when it comes to the LIST–the list that we are reading from—who, especially offensively is better?
If he’s not #2 then who really is? Snell?
Lot of people says he’s too high—well if you slot anyone else in at #2 that player will also be too high. Somebody had to come in at #2—and Bellinger is as fair a choice as the 18 names that are listed.
You’re still looking at BABIP
His career OPS with two strikes is .584, with a BABIP of .304. This year he has a .769 with a BABIP of .400. If/when his BABIP reverts to .304, his OPS will revert to .577.
Sign him if you like, but these walk years breakouts are seldom sustainable. The number of players that suddenly learn how to hit in their 7th season are few and far between.
When you can’t get the basic stats right like OPS, everything else you say goes right in the trash.
Bellinger has a .774 OPS with 2 strikes so that is definitely NOT what is helping him hit to a .907 OPS overall. Considering his BABIP with 2 strikes, that OPS with 2 strikes will fall nearly 200 points as he regresses to the mean.
Maybe, just maybe you should try learning how to look up stats and get educated about what they mean.
Oh another three 2 strike RBIs today on “weakly” hit balls. BIG TIME RED FLAG he really needs to make some hard contacts outs vs going the other way with two strikes I tell ya!
Is there a better two strike approach in the game this year?
Maybe if you understood how to look up stats, you would know.
A hint, Bellinger is not in the top 30 with 2 strikes.
Keep on doubling down on ignorant. It makes us all laugh.
Right on Drasco…Exactly! 2 strikes, reaching out to go the other way, half swing drop in front of the outfielders. Exit velocity…how many other “new” stats are non sense? Most of these guys today are ME oriented, screw the team, I need to try and pad my stats…contract year coming up! When some of the great teams put together so many top seasons in a row, they were excellent at small ball. Get them on, move them over…whatever it took. Seen many 40 HR guys in the last decade or two sacrifice the stats to bunt a guy over?…hahaha Aaron, Mays, Banks, Mantle…all did it
Mays had 13 sac bunts in his career and 9 of those were after he turned 40.
Aaron had 3 after his age 22 season.
Mantle had 14 in his career.
You know what we have found out? Its not worth giving up the out to move a single baserunner over. The facts are clear. So guess what? Teams don’t ask their players to do it anymore.
Easy, no one said anything about a sac bunt! But if you look at Bellinger this year, he’s doing exactly what a hitter should do, when he’s ahead in the count, he’s looking to drive the ball. When he’s down in the count, he’s looking to make contact. What working best for him also (and imagine if he did it when the shifting was allowed) is going the other way with a weak flare. It looks like he can put that ball in no man’s land at will.
Lot of red flags on Cody for sure.
You never know, someone might just break his leg or dislocate his shoulder again. He seems to be prone to it.
yes, and it this offseason is Ohtani, some mid rotation arms, and international pitchers…. I would still take Belly over Chapman at the plate any day, and that is enough to make him the 2nd best hitter (after ohtani)
I do see your point though, and i think the Os shop Santander and/or Hayes this offseason (i think their last year of arb, but it may be 2), and plenty of teams will see the silly deal Belly gets, and makes an offer for one of those 2 instead (i could also see Mountcastle being shopped)
I think this is true. His peripherals, especially hard hit profile, are nowhere near his back-of-the-card stats. Really looks like a freak year, although he’s still valuable because of his CF defense.
Cubs are going to pay him and regret it
=================================
Almost no chance, imo. Signing Belli for big money instead of promoting PCA wouldn’t make much sense.
Isn’t the Cubs best prospect a CF in AAA? They’re not gonna re-sign Belli. They might spend wildly this winter but not for him.
I would much rather the Cubs take a chance on signing Yamamoto than paying Bellinger or Chapman.
He is a little high on the list but this is not the same belligerent as the last couple years. Also isn’t the same mvp belly either. He is somewhere in between but much closer to the mvp side. He is still a top free agent and turned himself back into a productive player.
He has going for him is great defense and a little versatility to go with his left handed bat. That gives him a high floor. But he has a much better approach at the plate now and has cut down his k rate thus the +.100 in each of his slash lines. He is making contact and hard contact. Sure his average will come back down to earth but if he keeps the approach it isn’t going to dip to his previous 220ish. He has sacrificed some power to hit the ball. I see him as a 270-290 with 25-30 bombs with good d. That is a top free agent. Also I thing the rule against the shift has helped him more so then anyone else out there and may allow him to keep his avg above 300 with his new approach as long at he maintains good contact rates with hard hit rates.
Another thing Bellinger has going for him is the paucity of starting caliber CFers in MLB, currently. It’s a huge break for a player with his short track record of success since the end of 2019. If Benintendi can get 5/75m someone will pay Belli 5/100m. ($200m is ridiculous, and if he waits until February to sign maybe he can go chase gophers with Yoenis Cespedes.)
“Teams will see Bellinger as a versatile and above-average defender at multiple spots on the field.”
—Sure, because that’s what teams always do with above average CFers. They don’t play them in CF. Sigh.
Any team that gives Giolito six years will regret it.
Any team that gives any player short of a premier superstar – of which only Shohei Ohtani qualifies in 2023-24 – will regret it.
au contraire, Samuel – I generally agree with you about smart baseball, and whatnot, but I call your attention to the Gerrit Cole deal; I KNEW that was a good deal, when the Yankees signed him, and, so far, so good….He’s like Verlander, Seaver, Jenkins, and all the 250-300 plus game winners of last 60 years. I think he’ll be around, pitching brilliantly, for a long, long, time.
Chapman and Urias also look like they MIGHT work out if they can avoid getting injured, everyone else on that list looks like a guaranteed overpay.
some of the international guys may be worth it due to age.
The reality is that most players hit FA at about 30, and that is when they start to break down…. so the only way that a 6 year plus deal ever makes sense is if you are back dooring some differed money. Ohtani will not be worth 50 million in 7 years, but he is worth 70m if he pitches and hits at the same level as this year- so a team will give him 40-50m per year getting a discount now and paying some of the value later when the remaining contract looks bad.
Thing is with the rate of inflation both in the everyday world and the baseball world is that in 6 years 50 million may just be the new 30 million. 10 years ago 20 million was like 30 million today and the inflation rate is moving a a much quicker percentage rate that it isn’t going to need 10 years to jump 10 million it is almost doubled.
Your already seeing guys sign in the the high 30s to low 40s. 5 years from now that will be the going rate for premium talent and couple years after that it’ll grow by another 10 million. By the end of ohtani contract 50 million will be normal or close to it for high caliber players.
The inflation mostly seems to affect the upper tier (or illusion of upper tier) players. CJ Cron comes to mind as a guy who was producing consistent 800+ OPS seasons and was still getting moderate pay 1 year contracts. Same seems to go for most successful middle relievers in their 30’s, 1-2 year contracts with no inflated pay scales (e.g. Verlander) for giving up longer contracts.
Of course, according to Moneyball baseball was way behind football and basketball with loads of idiot ex-players and rich people’s incompetent family members dominating executive leadership positions… so the massive overpays based purely on age will probably continue.
It’s crazy but true. At the same time, elite younger players will increasingly become valuable simply because the premiere FA will cost 50 times as much.
Yep it’s going to wind up like basketball. Either max contracts for the veterans with minimums still on their entry contracts to fill the roster. Yep the young cost controlled guys will carry a ton of trade value. And just like in the “real” world we will be squeezing out the middle class. But I think the more successful teams will consist of middle class players mixed in with a solid youthful core still in or before arbitration.
If you can identify your core and lock them up right at the beginning of their arbitration for 10 years at 20 million you will build i solid roster as long as you can continue to draft and develop well to sufficiently have depth with your core franchise cornerstone that you avoid having to pay free agent market deals.
Think like the braves have done. The problem
Is they have to want to sign that and if they player is wanting to risk it and play out for the lucrative free agent deal. But they could end up like ohtani (only not as gifted) and get hurt and lose value. So if they are offered 10 years 200 mil that is security while maintaining generational wealth.
So if you can convince them to lock in and as long as you hit on the majority those contracts will be team friendly and in 10 years from now actually be making chump change
But more then likely your going to see many teams try to go this route and lock them up as early as they can and those that are successful and evaluate well while developing well will be way ahead of the curve.
Thank you for pointing this out. So many people just look at the end of the contract and say “overpaid” while ignoring the underpaid part.
Walker4daWinn12 hours ago
Thing is with the rate of inflation both in the everyday world and the baseball world
======================
A lot of inflation is due to Preller, Cashman & Cohen’s deep pockets. There is no guarantee that they will continue to drive the market
The upside on Giolito is fourth starter on a contender, second starter on a bad team. Yet, someone will give him six years and 90 plus million.
15 mil a year for a decent starter is cheap.
Be interesting to see who signs Yamamoto. The Dodgers are prolly rethinking Ohtani now.
They’ll probably resign Urias.
They like to keep things in house.
They will extend him a QO and based on the way he’s pitching now he might even take it. I don’t know where anyone gets the idea that the Dodgers are so big on hanging onto their players.
The Dodgers are probably hoping they can get Ohtani for less now.
Agree. Going forward, even before Ohtani’s injury, you would think a team would be concerned of how long Ohtani could be a quality pitcher. He’s moving in on 30, and doing double duty even as a DH, is still doing double duty at an MLB level, it does take a toll.
Brewers cubs giants and dodgers should grab candelario 5/80 easy grab
He can’t play for 4 teams.
He could play DH for 2 of them when they play each other…
Cubs should make Candelario a QO so if he takes it would be 1 year at 20 million. Cubs don’t need him for 5 years Shaw will be here by then. Another idea ( But one that will never happen), Would be for the Cubs to trade one of their young P’s to the Cardinals for Gorman so he could play 3rd where he belongs. Never happen of course because of who the teams are but nice to spitball about in case Shaw doesn’t work out.
They can’t because he was traded mid-season
Right. Thanks
Plus somebody needs to explain why it’s bad to offer somebody 20 million bucks for 1 year only once in exchange for a draft pick. Who’s the loser there? The player, He can say yes or no. The Team? They at least get something back for a good player they lost. Fans? Mothers? Wives? Manfred? OK Manfred is a loser but a different kind. Like saying Hey, You are only allowed to get rich once or else. SMH. Another one of those rules that makes you go WTF?
It removes teams that value draft picks from the bidding. Some won’t pay and give up the pick(s). Players in the QO salary range can likely get more than $20mm in guaranteed money with a multi year contract if max teams are bidding.
Plenty of starting pitching for the Cubs to sign!
and every other team.
Why would they Rube?
This should be the cubs offseason ! Keep bellinger and stroman then go get Urias and hader. Why not? They can afford it. That would complete the rebuild and reopen a competitive window with a decent slew of minor leaguers being ready for the opportunity next season.
Sucks as a reds fan to see the cubs so close again ! Cubs win the offseason though, they’ll be the central favorites
Mets won the off season and were east division favorites. Doesn’t mean a whole lot.
I would think Sonny Gray would make a ton of sense for the Reds to bring back into the fold. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised they spend a good bit being that Votto will be coming off the books as well as Moustakas. Good future for the Reds.
There’s a Sonny gray I terview with Bauer when they were both with the Reds and Sonny said he thought the media circus that is big market teams played a big factor in why he wasn’t a great yankee. So where ever he goes I hope for his sake it’s a smaller market
Not all big markets are like NY and BOS though. I’d argue CHI and LA are less pressure filled. He just needs to avoid the northeast
His market will be more limited by the fact that he’s 34 y/o during FA (11/23) and he hasn’t hit 30 GS or 200 IP since ’15. He may have a nice-size AAV short-term deal that most any team can afford, if the alternative are 6-year deals to SPs.
i was thinking the same thing. Reds, Os and most of the other super young teams make sense….. McLain, Elly and company are making peanuts the next 2-3 years, so they will have plenty of extra cash for that time to make a run…. so shorter term deals make sense for them so the money is free again once they have to worry about locking those guys up.
I’ll never forget an Adrian Gonzales quote after being traded from Boston to LA, “I haven’t been asked a baseball question in two years.” Kudos to players who can thrive in that sort of environment, but I can’t fault a player who wants no part of it.
Agree that the Reds make sense as a good team for Gray. Not only do they need a veteran pitcher to anchor the rotation, they will have the cash, he is familiar with the team, pitching coach Derek Johnson is one of his pitching mentors, he was born and raised in Tennessee and went to Vandy. Seems like a perfect fit.
Cubs and Cardinals would also be good landing spots for Sonny Gray
Wil Myers and his 7.5 million come off the books also
Sonny gray would make sense for a lot of team
Brian Cashman’s last move as NYY GM: signing Sonny Gray
“Run it back!”
-Cashman
Sonny Gray is a creature of habit… the man is possessed by demons that morphed his ‘sweeper’ into an 85-87 mph ‘cutter’ that almost drops straight down , and no its not a split
Gray would make more sense moving to a team where he doesn’t have to be the #1. A west coast team with an existing star or two in the rotation.
In terms of Ohtani. Do you think teams would consider him if he signed a contract with a discounted first year? Ohtani seems like the type to take an initial pay cut in order to go where he wants.
But for the sake of starting an argument. What about Ohtani doing DH/RP? Save the arm, get the bat and a lights-out reliever. It’s dumb I know, but again, I just want to start an argument.
Ohtani will still get a huge contract even if he never pitches again. Think Judge.
he is a 35m per year hitter, and a 30m per year pitcher (he needs kid gloves and a 6 man rotation even when healthy).
If he really wants to gamble, i could see a team make an offer with still a high floor (like 300m for 6 years) and a ton of incentives…. like 10m for 100ip, or 30 mil if he wins a cy young….. basically you get the hitter money since we know that is money in he bank, but the pitcher value he would have to earn.
I think he signs somewhere to be a SP once healthy…. but i think for his health and future he should go to a team that wants him to be the every day DH and closer. That sort of caps him closer to 45-50m per year (even elite closers seldom get over 12m)
What do the top 3 hitters in baseball make in AAV? $35-40 million. Othani will be at the top of that range.
He’s going to set the new mark, maybe 10 years at $450 million. If doctors like his prognosis to pitch again it skyrockets to $650 or $700 million. Yes, either way Ohtani will be the highest paid baseball player ever. Even at $700 million he is worth it because he’s an international star.
Ohtani attracts the attention of people who aren’t very interested in baseball. He is a phenom. It would be very good for baseball if he signs with a great franchise. The only current teams with an undeniably positive culture are the Braves and Dodgers. Luckily for the world, the Dodgers don’t care how high their payroll goes so they might sign Ohtani and help us enjoy seeing him on the biggest stages.
Novody pays a walk machine 30 killion. As a hitter, maybe he is even 35-40 (Judge), but the pitcher is 15-25 I think. That is assuming health. Innings mstter for starters. Maybe a 45 million short-term deal makes sense atm.
Hard to be a reliever while you’re in the lineup.
Can’t warmup while you are batting.
Great point.
You need your head examined if you give Bellinger $200 million
Tigers will have plenty of money to spend. Bellinger is a risk signing they should take.
I bet the Tigers overpay for Chapman. They don’t need another DH/1B type and Belliger is aging past his usefulness in the outfield.
I see Turner, Cron, and JDM as possible DH candidates for Detroit. Old enough to accept a one or two year deal at a reasonable rate. I’d love to see Candelario back, but I just don’t see HARRIS correcting his mistake.
Kerry Carpenter is 25 years old, not arbitration eligible until 2026, and raking as the Tigers DH. I doubt they’d spend money on a free agent to fill an area that is already a strength.
3B, on the other hand, is a glaring weakness without any immediate prospect answers.
Tigers have plenty of LH bats, Greene, Meadows, Carpenter, Baddoo. Plus they have Torkelson at 1B. They need a RH DH to replace Miggy. A solid 3B would allow Vierling to rotate thru the OF. They just don’t have a need for Bellinger.
Let’s all hope he signs with our rival. I love it every time the Angels sign a toxic contact.
Who do they let write these things?
You can’t read?
I can read the texts your mom sends me.
She’s been dead since before there were cell phones so you are as delusional about that as you are about the writers on this website. Get professional help.
You are arguing with strangers on the internet, sir. Have a laugh.
You are insulting strangers on the internet, sir. Have a thought.
Yamamoto perfect fit for the Mets. Cohen doesn’t want to give up draft picks but is willing to throw money into deals so the posting fee is no problem. Senga can recruit him
I feel Steve Cohen is great for baseball, throwing around money like it’s confetti at a quincineria. It raises the prices for all the players and helps teams that avoid toxic contracts.
Yamamoto will end up either as a Met or as a Red Sox. Boston will get Yamamoto if Cohen thinks he’s getting Ohtani.
“Head examined”..I tend to agree. He’s clearly a good player when right, but you’d be crazy to ignore He’s been below average offensively about 3 of the last 4 yrs or it could even be 2 of the last 3. Either way, I view him as a + defender with a shaky, inconsistent bat. For me, he’s a good signing at 3 for 60 million or 4 for 75, no higher.
Both Trevor Story (six years, $140MM) and Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM) secured deals well north of $100MM due in large part to their strong gloves and offensive ceilings.
=====================================
Good to see MLB-R backing off of their “massive contract” prediction when his BABIP-fueled line reverted back to his career numbers. But:
“Both Trevor Story (six years, $140MM) and Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM) secured deals well north of $100MM due in large part to their strong gloves and offensive ceilings.”
Fails to note that both Story & Swanson were both two years younger when they hit free agency. Even five years is a stretch for Chapman.
Are you always this pedantic? Chapman will get five years.
Ah yes, the offseason – otherwise known as the regular season for the Mets and Padres. Should be a fierce competition
I give the Mets credit for reversing course. The Angels & Pads not so much. Under the new, lowered bar format, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mets contend for a wild card next year. Under this new format, almost any team can make a few smart moves and signings, have a little luck with health and contend for that 3rd wild card the very next yr.
The Mets are in a competition for the inverse division title this year (currently deadlocked for that title) and will be next year as well. Just look at their team. Their only hope of contending can only be if they win the offseason yet again!!!
Unlikely that Ohtani pitches in ‘24. That would require a minor league rehab assignment, and his bat would be missed.
Might as well continue getting creative with Ohtani and try him out as a relief pitcher to limit the injuries. If he could develop into a quality closer or multi inning hold reliever he’d be nearly as valuable as a starter.
Unless there’s a rule change for that too, might be a bit tricky getting those warmup pitches in while batting, running the bases or waiting for his turn in the order.
Its Ohtani! Rule changes for him are automatic! The league could have waited until there was at least one other two-way player before bowing to the almighty dollar.
I remember saying something when the previous rule change was announced, specifically for his benefit. It wasn’t accepted well. I can see mlb saying ohtani can be pulled from defense or his spot in the batting order to warm up, then be allowed to pitch AND if the game continues to his team batting again, he gets to go back in the order…wherever he wants to. And absolutely no other player is allowed to take advantage of this change, because they will intentionally pull their best hitter, have him (try and) get the final out of the previous half inning, then lead off his team’s next time at bat, or something.
Nah, just take an insurance policy out on his contract. There isn’t increased injury risk, he’s always played 2 ways and he should continue if he wants.
I have to say…. THIS CONTENT RULZ!
A pitcher sometimes takes something off to throw a hitters timing off. Batters have been known to poke a ball through a hole in the infield. Obviously Bellinger is now attempting to get on base and being more of a team player rather than swinging for the fences every AB. Sure he was hurt the last few years but has also adjusted his approach and is enjoying success. Success that Boras will play into a huge multi year contract. It’s about money however I also believe the fit for Bellinger is best in Chicago so expect him to sign elsewhere and his production to be less.
but has also adjusted his approach and is enjoying success.
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I never buy the suggestion that full-time players have 6 years of ML experience, and then learn something that increases their OPS+ by 62 points over the preceding three-years average.
Outside of Ohtani this is one of the worst free agent classes i can ever remember.
2-5 on this list have such huge risks, but they are going to get so overpaid
A great point that I think is lost on many folks here. Market conditions are a big part of what drives contracts. If the pool of “good/great” players is very limited, a lot of these high upside + risky players are going to get paid mostly for what their high water marks look like, not the bad years.
People are saying MLBTR is dead wrong on Belli and Gio, but their contract predictions are almost scarily accurate a lot of times. I would not bet against a team handing Belli a huge deal.
but they are going to get so overpaid
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I’ve said this since day I started watching BB. There will always be one GM that thinks a player is a perfect fit for them. And they will look at his stats in such a way that they will support his argument.
Belli’s been a fantastic story and Hoyer did a smart thing signing guys to 1 and 2 year bridge deals. But now is the time to trust the Scouting Dept. and let the kids take over. They are progressing faster than anticipated and even the so called experts are noticing. Cubs farm ratings have been going up and most people now finally agree with me that they are in the top 4 and even as high as 2. He’s had to eat a couple of deals which makes it look bad, But what would be worse would be for them to spend big in FA this year. As painful as it may seem, The right play is to move on from Bellinger, Hendricks and Smyly and promote from within. If Stroman comes back all the better, If he doesn’t, That would also be fine, It works either way. Shaw is hitting .400 at High A and should be at least at AA next year and with a good start could be at AAA in no time. I would rather see a few well timed trades than a big FA signing this December. Candelerio might be nice to have back but short term. I doubt that plays so make him a QO if he accepts OK, If he doesn’t also OK. A lot of big decisions to make this year but the best move might be not to play at all.
Hope QOs are extended to both Snell and Hader.
Write it down in pen, they’re locks to receive QOs.
3 thoughts.
Bellinger has so many red flags at the plate that whoever signs him will regret it. He will probably get 8/200 which is $80-100 million too much.
Ohtani is going to get $400+ million over `10+ years. He may become strictly a position player, RF or 1B, but his bat is worth it.
Snell will sign a larger contract than any pitcher not named Yamamoto or Urias. He is a front runner for the Cy Young and regardless of his slow start, he has been dominant the rest of the season.
Snell will fail outside the Padre’s organization.
Snell would succeed with Rays or Dodgers. In fact, I think the Dodgers are, following the Padres, the second most likely team to sign Snell. Dodgers will definitely sign at least one from among Ohtani, Yamamoto, Urias, Snell and Nola.
Snell had a Cy Young in Tampa. He has already succeded elsewhere.
What annoys me about Snell is that he throws too many pitches & never makes it past six innings. His line is always like 6 IP 4 H 4 BB 9 SO which is cool but not for #1 starter money.
It’s is when you add in 2 runs or less like he has been doing.
When someone is on base opponents are hitting .202/.300/.296 off him. That’s damn impressive, but when they start getting closer to home he gets even tougher. When they are with RISP opponents are hitting .175/.271/.250.
It’s only 14 PA but if those numbers look good (from a pitcher’s perspective) he’s only given up 1 hit and 1 walk with the bases loaded good for a .297 OPS off him in those situations.
Someone should buy Snell that wallet that Samuel L Jackson has in Pulp Fiction.
Javier Baez can opt out, I believe, ho won’t.
You forgot Lance Lynn as an honorable mention. And look what he’s doing for LA and in previous seasons. Workhorse.
This is a pretty mixed list. Bellinger certainly shouldn’t be that high based on a perceive resurgence. Chapman, Kimbrel, Jansen, and Matt Moore (to a lesser extent) should be here as honorable mentions if guys like Bader and Soler are there. Elite relivers > platoon players/semi-regulars
Add in JD Martinez too
I look at the list and I say ” the Braves ain’t spending money on any of these guys”.
Then I think to myself, I guess that is a good position to be in.
Hader could be targeted by the Braves. They bring in high priced relievers a lot.
Allow me a moment to think out loud/rosterbate.
The Dodgers 2024 starting rotation currently looks like
Bobby MIller
And that’s really the only lock
Buehler is coming back from injury, but is likely to be in next year’s rotation.
Dustin May might be back later in the season.
Kershaw and Urias are free agents
Lynn has a team option
Yarbrough is a quasi-starter
Then there are the rookies: Pepiot, Stone, Grove and Sheehan who would likely be in most team’s rotations. Guys like Landon Knack and Kyle Hurt might be joining that group as well.
Expanding on Miller, the 2024 rotation might look like
Buehler
Miller
Lynn
Yarbrough
Pepiot
Definitely needs some additions
The most obvious is Kershaw. He’s more likely to leave if the team wins the WS this year, but ideally the team finishes the season as champions and Kershaw sill comes back.
Now, we are at
Kershaw
Buehler
Miller
Lynn
Pepiot/Yarbrough
Also, ideally, the team adds a certain DH/SP who’s 2024 pitching ability is currently up in the air.
Kershaw
Buehler
Miller
Lynn
Ohtani/Yarbrough (maybe as piggy backers. Though not sure Yarbrough’s soft-tossing-contact style is the best to follow up Ohtani’s gas with).
Plus, Ohtani requires an extra day of rest and a six=player rotation. So, maybe it’s more like
Kershaw
Buehler
Miller
Lynn
Ohtani/Yarbrough
Some combination of the rookies (maybe with some piggybacking and option shenanigans. Though, they are all right-handed and piggybacking works a bit better when you have one lefty and one righty.
That still feels pretty thin
Probably the team uses that young pitching depth to acquire some pitching through trade.
It’ll be interesting to see what the team does with the rotation.
Kershaw will retire a Dodger. He’s had plenty of chances to take more money and play for another team but has always gone back.
I think that’s most likely. But, he and his family live in Dallas. And, sometimes, staying at home is a big pull for older players. And now that Texas is good…
This list IMHO is all wrong. From 2-10 it’s way off. Snell needs to be higher, Chapman at 10, Hader has to be higher, and Bellinger should be grouped in 5-10. Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell, Urias, Montgomery, Nola, Hadr, Bellinger, Giolito, and Chapman would be my order. Montgomery may be the sleeper bargain.
Gerrit Cole will also be a free agent when he opts out
He can’t opt out until after next season.
It’s a pretty weak class if Bellinger is #2
It is in position players.
Ben sells his soul to Bob and signs Ohtani… Ohtani turns into an albatross contract in 2026 with a contract value worth more than the franchise value as the team is running in the deep red worse than when the Nuttings “bailed out” the pirates then Bob saying, “I told you so”
I feel bad for Angels fans (me being a pirates fan….). Two best players in baseball and they are far out from even being .500. yeah injuries but still they haven’t been to the playoffs in a while.
I hope Ohnani stays with the Angels and they have a team that stays healthy next year and make a serous run.
Ohtani’s not pitching next season and may be a serious candidates to accept the QO to be able to rehab with the Angels medical/training staff rather than learning a new staff.
Julio Urias basically becomes the best available arm in free agency now. I know many are high on Yamamoto but its always a question of well performance in Japan will translate to MLB
Zero chance he takes a qualifying offer. He’s getting alot more then 20m.
Why would Ohtani take a Q.O. when he can get a $25MM one-year deal as strictly a DH WITH a rejected Q.O. attached?
If he has to have a second TJS and miss the first half of next season you really think teams will want to pay that much?
Pro-rated. Yes. Get the Q.O. out of the way to re-enter the market.
More. Much more. Some team is going to give Ohtani $400 million even if he decides to give up pitching.
Ohtani to the Braves would be fun. Not going to happen, but fun to think about. Logistically could work: Odorizzi’s 10m to TEX, decline Rosario’s 9m, and decline either/both Yates and McHugh’s ~6m. You’re saving 25-30m and the Braves are going to be about 20-30m over this year with Ohtani in the lineup. Ozuna’s 18m gone after ’24 makes it even easier financial load. Downside Ozuna plays a horrible left field for a season. Upside Acuna, Ohtani, Riley, Olson, Albies, Murphy, Ozuna, Harris, and Arcia.
But a fan can dream.
“and, if so, which surgery he requires”
“And, as marketable as Judge is…”
“And, because of early-career shoulder surgery…”
Adams doesn’t know how to use commas with “and.” NONE of these instances should have commas after them. Completely unnecessary.
Ohtani’s 2023 is arguably the greatest overall season in history.
With all due respect to Ohtani, however, we have seen players put up more impressive seasons as pitchers or hitters…so I take issue with Mr. Adams’ statement Ohtani is “…doing things that we’ve never seen before.” A great example would be A-Rod, well before the PED issues. In his first full year in the majors, A-Rod put up the following numbers: .358, .414, .631, 1.045, 54 doubles, 36 HR’s, 1 triple, 54 doubles, 15 SB’s, 123 RBI’s. The .358 AVG broke Ty Cobb’s record (.350) for 20 year olds, all while A-Rod was playing every day at SS. We could also talk about Willy Mays, Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, etc.
Further, there is a disturbing tendency to downplay the greatness of Babe Ruth, who could have made the HOF as a pitcher or a hitter. Call me crazy, but Ohtani will never have the number and scope of the offensive seasons that Ruth did…nor is he likely to ever eclipse what Ruth did in the WS as a pitcher: 29 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings; 3-0, 0.87 ERA (31 IP). In 1916, Ruth started 40 games, throwing a mind boggling 323.2 regular season innings without giving a HR (5th overall MLB). In 1919, Ruth went 9-5, 2.97 ERA, 131.1 IP…and put up a .322, .456, 657, 1.114 line, with 29 HR’s, 12 triples, 34 doubles, 7 SB’s, and 113 RBI’s, Finally, people only see the overweight videos of Ruth…but he was an outstanding athlete for much of his career, which is why he had 136 career triples, and started 1,768 games in the OF (not surprising given the great arm he had). Ruth also stole homeplate 10 times.
Among the greatest single pitchers are Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, tom Seaver, Lefty Grove, Denny McClain, Randy Johnson, etc.
“Ohtani is still the best player on the planet, doing things that we simply haven’t seen in our lifetimes — arguably ever before. ”
—An excruciating read. Willie Mays, without the pitching fuss, was a better player than Ohtani even before the latter tore his UCL again.
And now? Now Ohtani’s a 5 WAR DH (4.4 WAR per 650 PA for his career). If you want to pay him more than Trout, have at it. It’s an absurd move, however.