The Yankees have dropped three straight games and have now tallied just two victories in their past 10 contests. Sitting in the unfamiliar setting of last place in the American League East, there are mounting questions about the team’s trade deadline approach. It would be out of character, to say the least, for the Yankees to engineer a wide-scale selloff at the deadline. And with New York still only two and a half games back from an AL Wild Card spot, that seems decidedly unlikely.
That said, the Yankees also have a porous roster, particularly with Aaron Judge on the injured list and facing a nebulous timeline for his return. General manager Brian Cashman said yesterday that it’s fair to characterize Judge’s return as “close” before taking a noncommittal stance on whether that constituted a matter of days or weeks (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It remains unclear when the reigning AL MVP will return to the lineup; the Yankees are hitting .223/.294/.374 as a team in his absence.
With the team reeling and currently in the AL East cellar, there have naturally been calls from the fans for the Yankees to sell at the deadline, a possibility that was discussed on the most recent episode of the MLBTR Podcast. At least to some extent, that could wind up being the case. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Yankees could work to dip under the top tier of the luxury tax in over the next couple weeks. Presumably, that’d come by dealing away short-term players — those who’ll reach free agency at season’s end or perhaps those controlled only through the 2024 season.
At least with regard to their crop of impending free agents, however, that could be easier said than done. Luis Severino has struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 48 2/3 innings thus far, and the underlying metrics don’t give much cause for optimism. His 17.4% strikeout rate is a career-low, and his 9.4% walk rate is the second-highest of his career. He’s averaged 2.22 homers per nine innings pitched, yielding hard contact at the highest rate of his career, and is sitting on career-low swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates.
Utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, meanwhile, is hitting just .251/.309/.369. That’s 11% worse than average, by measure of wRC+. Acquired to be a stopgap at shortstop, Kiner-Falefa has just eight innings at that position in 2023 and has been used primarily as an outfielder this season. Defensive metrics haven’t provided a strong review of his glovework there, however.
Center fielder Harrison Bader is also a free agent at season’s end and is playing his customary brand of standout defense. However, his .275 on-base percentage also ranks 295th of the 326 players with at least 150 plate appearances this season. His overall .246/.275/.427 batting line checks in below average.
Frankie Montas, of course, hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. Trading any of Severino ($15MM in 2023), Montas ($7.5MM), Kiner-Falefa ($6MM) or Bader ($4.7MM) could be enough to dip the Yankees under the top tier of luxury penalization, as Roster Resource currently has them at $294.1MM — just $1.1MM over the limit.
The most palatable rental option for the Yankees to trade would be southpaw Wandy Peralta, who’s earning $3.35MM this season. He’s currently sporting a 2.48 ERA, but his 19.5% strikeout rate is below average and his 13.6% walk rate is an obvious eyesore. Still, Peralta is averaging just shy of 96 mph on his heater and also possesses a huge 63.2% ground-ball rate.
Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a Gleyber Torres trade, which could simultaneously fetch more talent in return and also trim payroll more than any of those rentals aside from Severino. He’s earning $9.95MM in 2023 and hitting a solid .264/.333/.430 with 14 homers. The Yankees also have an in-house, MLB-ready alternative in young Oswald Peraza, who struggled in the Majors earlier but is slashing a .261/.352/.495 in Triple-A.
Looking at the situation as a whole, however, the final tax barrier is an odd line to draw in the sand. It’s a purely monetary line of penalization, and the Yankees are only narrowly north of it. The Yankees already committed to having their top pick in next year’s draft pushed back by 10 places when they exceeded the third tier of penalty, which sits at $273MM.
Striving to dip under that threshold would perhaps be logical but also unrealistic; trimming more than $21MM from the remaining payroll at this juncture of the season would be immensely difficult. Trades at this stage would only spare the Yankees the remainder those players’ salaries. That’s roughly $5.3MM on Severino, $1.7MM on Bader, $2.1MM on Kiner-Falefa, $1.2MM on Peralta and $3.5MM on Torres. Even trading that entire quintet would only get the Yankees about two-thirds of the way there.
None of that even takes into consideration the possibility of the Yankees simultaneously adding pieces, either. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted earlier in the week that in addition to the Yankees’ desire to upgrade in the outfield, they’ve been monitoring the catching, starting pitching and bullpen markets. That wide swath of needs speaks to the predicament in which the Yankees currently find themselves, but it’s notable that as of Monday the team appeared set on — or at least open to adding some pieces. Both Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson and Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk have been of some interest to the Yankees, per Feinsand. Carlson, controlled through 2026, would be an affordable and long-term solution in the outfield.
The Yankees potentially have another affordable and controllable option down in Triple-A, where former top prospect Estevan Florial has put together a huge season. Designated for assignment on Opening Day and unclaimed on waivers, Florial has batted .291/.388/.535 with an already career-high 21 homers in just 335 plate appearances.
That production hasn’t been enough to get him a look in the big leagues, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic took a look at Florial’s situation, speaking to Triple-A skipper Shelley Duncan and others about the 25-year-old’s work ethic and motivation in the wake of that DFA and subsequent outright. It’s frankly surprising that the Yankees have continued to lean on journeymen Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and the aforementioned Kiner-Falefa in the outfield rather than give Florial some type of audition. Kuty suggests the team could look to trade him at the deadline, which could be a means of adding help in another area.
Broadly speaking, it’s strange to be discussing the Yankees in this context. They’re typically a motivated buyer at the trade deadline, one that has often acted aggressively and decisively in an effort to tighten their existing grip on a postseason spot. It’s a different feel in the Bronx this season, however, and various, simultaneous reports regarding payroll reduction, selling off short-term players and the possibility to add at virtually any spot on the roster only underscore the uncertainty surrounding the team.
We increasingly see modern front offices toe the line between “buyer” and “seller,” making moves in both directions in a given deadline season. The Yankees appear poised for such a hybrid approach to the ’23 deadline, though their play in the next couple weeks will surely prove instructive as well. If they’re able to right the ship and go on a winning streak of any note, Cashman & Co. could be emboldened to make moves that fall closer to the win-now side of the scale. Should the pendulum swing in the other direction, there’d be more urgency to take a step back and employ a longer-term focus.
The Yankees have one more game in Anaheim, where they’ve already lost two, before returning home to host struggling Royals and Mets teams for a combined five games. They’ll then head to Baltimore for three games and have one game against the division-leading Rays before the deadline rolls around. Their performance against a pair of sub-.500 teams on that homestand and in the subsequent four games against the top two teams in their own division will be worth watching with a careful eye; every win or loss is crucial at this point.
Nelson Cruz is old enough to be a Yankee
He’s almost as old as jokes about old players.
Poor Florial rotting at AAA, and not even getting a chance to perform here at the majors, with absolutely no one hitting? Smh. Yeah that makes sense.
how is this in any way connected to the comment you’re replying to?
Sean Casey is the batting coach.
No more moves needed.
Don’t forget the Jake Lamb signing. Exquisite move.
Whoa. I didn’t even notice the Angels released him. lol.
I’m sure Yankee fans would be super patient on a rebuild
Doesn’t need to be a rebuild. We sold in 2016 I believe (Chapman and others) and then made the playoffs the next season
If there is any team crazy enough to take some of these aging vets off our hands (especially LeMahieu) let them have them. Take a flyer a la Clayton Beeter.
I would absolutely support a sell off if they could get a good return on guys like LeMahieu and Torres.
But having grown up in the George era I really want them to break the bank and pick up some help. I don’t care about tax levels or cost.
Miss George! And the things he would say about this current Yankees team. There is no good return for Torres bc he’s not cheap next season after arbitration. DJL isn’t worth his salary. The Yankees will need to empty the farm for multiple reinforcements and I’m not even sure that will turn the team around. They’ll also need to DFA a LOT of salary.
George would be disgusted and the team and his sons approach. It’s an embarrassment.
As a non-Yankees fan, was George’s approach better/really so different? Yankees fans, for real, what’s a realistic approach you’d like to see? I’m curious.
@paleobros I’d love for them to emulate how the Dodgers front office runs
Not sure if the results would’ve been different. George would’ve ripped into EVERY player except Judge, Cole, Trevino, and the bullpen. He would’ve never had settled for waiting for Volpe when there were so many big name FA SS available in past years.
If given the choice, I’d ship out every pitcher except Cole, Rodon, Nestor, Holmes, Marinaccio, and King. Trade Torres, O. Cabrera, Bader, and IKF. It’s going to hurt but a retooling is in order even if next season is sacrificed. Even with Judge back, this current lineup will be over-matched in the playoffs.
Why Cabrera?
Except we had some pieces that people wanted at that time. We don’t have much now at all. The few pieces people might want, cashman would never never sell.
Nothing is wrong with Cabrera. He’s an infielder playing the outfield. If another team values him more, I’m all for moving him in our scenario. I don’t think he’s an impact player.
@kev,
the issue is we don’t have a Miller, Chapman or Beltran.
i’d trade Torres while his value is higher, whatever we can get for him
If they’re not gonna load up, trade everyone they can except Cole, Judge and a few others. There no reason to keep this team together as is for a few more months.
Why not just call Florial up and play him or trade him while he’s still at an age where you can fool someone into thinking he’s still a can’t miss prospect
There’s a good chance they’re planning on trading him in the next couple of weeks. It would make sense that’s why he’s still in the minors hitting very well. Don’t bring him up where he might not do so good. Though his strikeout rate is still high.
isn’t he out of options as well?
What makes you think there’s a market if he wasn’t claimed on waivers? Just like Andujar, career minor league studs but can’t sustain in the majors. Not sure why, but it happens.
That’s what’s been speculated everywhere, but that’s all it is speculation. Nobody knows what Cashman will do, his actions are often inexplicable and irrational, at best.
If any team thought he was a “can’t miss” prospect he wouldn’t have gone unclaimed on waivers. It looks like the Yankees don’t think much of him either.
Because he has shown an inability to hit MLB caliber pitching. He could very well be a career AAAA player like so many others.
Except he has not shown an inability to hit MLB pitching. He has all of 50 ABs. No one can make a conclusion after 50ABs.
Right. The reason Florial has been kept down is that he’s been striking out 30% of the time in AAA. That’s over the past 800 at-bats in SWB. That projects to be worse at the ML level. If he were able to maintain a 30% rate at the ML level, he’s be 12th worst among regulars; anything over 24% would make him worst. The Yankees may be working with him on his swing, trying to get that to improve.
Where would they be if Judge had signed with the Giants? Their record with and without him is crazy. Cashman just plain didn’t build a complete team if losing one guy- even an MVP- dictates an entire team’s season.
So excruciatingly true, rondon.
rondon – It’s not the Mets, Cashman didn’t have an unlimited payroll. He spent a ton of money not only on Judge, but also Rodon & Rizzo. And he’s probably gonna make a run at Ohtani after the season as well, so he was right not to spend any more than he did last winter.
They were good enough to make the ALCS last year, they should be equally as good this year even without Judge. Nobody expected Stanton, Rizzo, DJL or Severino to be THIS bad after the season they had last year.
Says who? Stanton was a shell of himself the 2nd half of last year. He’s 33. DJ was horrendous last year and hurt then decided to avoid surgery this past offseason. He’s 34. Rizzo was barely average last year. He’s 34. Sevy is hurt every single year. Donaldson is absolute toast. HIcks is absolute toast. Yet this is the team they thought was “championship caliber”. To think they’d be just as good or better than last year when nearly all their players they rely on are over the hill and showing signs of decline is crazy
bill – Every player I mentioned had a much better season last year.
For instance Rizzo had an .817 OPS last season with an OPS+ of 132.
This year .722 OPS and 101 OPS+
Hicks has an .844 OPS in 138 PAs in Baltimore. 138 PAs is a big enough sample to disprove “he is absolute toast”.
His average is dropping fast. My Law of Ham and Eggers is proven again: The more they play, the more they revert to their averages. he once was a good Player,but dropped for whatever reason..
@rondon,
The Yankees without Judge is like the Angels without Trout, Atlanta without Acuna, or the Mets without DeGrom. Star players do get injured, and no team is able to replace them. If the Angels had a player who could replace Trout, he would have already been in the starting lineup, and not available to replace him. But, yeah, its the GMs fault.
The team shouldn’t have a bottom five offense without Judge. That’s the reality. They are a bottom 5 offense right now. No one is saying anyone can replace Judge. But when 8 of your current 9 hitters are below average there is a problem with roster construction
shelley duncan! had no idea he was still in the org love that guy
Put your forearms away from that guy!
trading peralta would be waving the white flag he’s the only reliable arm right now
Holmes has been elite since May before giving up that homerun.
should have clarified only reliable bridge to holmes
Cashman should be fired for burying Florial. Four other guys who have washed out elsewhere get promoted over him? Inexcusable.
Florial is in his 3rd year at AAA with a 30% K rate. He went unclaimed on waivers. He’s no savior
Florial was hot garbage every time he was promoted. Swing, miss, strikeout, rinse, repeat.
It’s the name. Too flowery. Not enough substance.
Faunial would serve him much better.
Yeah, all 50 at bats, and in random disconnected spurts.Hardly given a chance.
You’re going to love his 45% K-rate in the MLB. Then when he tries to shorten his swing, the power will be gone.
Everyone but Judge/Cole should be on the table. DFA Donaldson already. Torres to SEA? Any takers for a backup, defensive catcher? Flip the bullpen arms. Cashman should be listening on anyone and everyone.
Trading Torres won’t yield a decent enough return. Yankees are better off keeping him
Rodon is a complete bust so far. Not healthy.. between him and Montas it’s a joke what Cashman has done. We are in last place.. period
Willson Contreras is over 30 and signed to a contract that won’t age well. Hopefully the temptation is too much for the Yankees to resist.
Judge DFA
The “bombers”…… lol, are basically a poorly put together team mostly of bottom feeders. Maybe Torres can fetch a prospect or two, but they don’t have much to trade. One superstar needs more of a supporting cast. Their place in the standings is where they should be. Sorry Yankee fans, I know the truth hurts !!!
It’s hard to be buyers when you’re going nowhere fast and it’s even harder to be sellers when you have nothing to sell. The Yankees are stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place
Yankee roster is a disaster. They lack left handed bats. They lack OBP guys. They lack depth. They lack quality and quantity. How could it become this bad?
Got too old, fast!
Is Cashman finally on the hot seat???
Nope. Worst that will happen to him is he’ll be kicked up a level.
Yankees have been a disaster for several years now. I blame Cashman for overreacting after Ohtani dissed them and he traded for Stanton. The next off-season Harper was available. Cashman signs Rizzo instead of Freeman. Many moves made but the wrong players.
Agree completely. he appears to prefer the washed up veterans ,who are willing to take short-term contracts even if their salaries per year are relatively high ,like Donaldson Rizzo etc. But he does dip his toe into the alleged premium players, who require long-term contracts, he selects the wrong ones like stanton or Rodon. There’s been plenty of evidence that he’s bad at his job, he needs to go.
No Cashman is part of the Steinbrenner family, he has a life long contract, and can retire when he pleases to do so.
Aaron Judge on the verge of becoming Trout 2.0 on this current new contract. This team looks five years away then who knows
Cashman: *blows kiss*
Just not sorry for you guys and gals! Look at your lineup vs My Brewers. At least most of your current players are average, some good. My Team is full of underperforming or ham and Eggers minus types. You are not that bad. You are just in a great division. I wonder what George Sr. would say!
Listenup, there are no known solutions to injuries, slumps, and performance disappointments. The talent badket is what counts rigjt now, and re. next year or 2025, the options are so variable and vulnerable. Lets understand, if Mgmt goes with the young guys, like Wells to solve Catcher issue, Perazza to solve 3B issue, Volpe at SS, Torres at 2B, DJ at 1B thats a solid choice and much better than buying question marks at top price. The rookies are cheap and more promising. …. I say JD is a dead weight as is Stanton and not a trade value, yet just try to dump them picking up the salary breath. Anyway, they are independable, like a postman that only some mail gets to its destination. Bader and IKF and Judge are just right in the OF,just trade all those MvKinneys, Bauers, Franchy, Calhouns for a good pitcher add sugar too, Allen and Florial and Cabrerra should all be on the roster.
How is this Steve Adams guy employed as a writer? He doesn’t know that “meanwhile” has to start the sentence and can’t come in the middle. He also doesn’t know that a comma shouldn’t come before the word either. Then he uses an em dash instead of a comma here.
“…but it’s notable that as of Monday the team appeared set on — or at least open to adding some pieces.”
Em dashes are used like parentheses. This is totally wrong. It has to be “as of Monday the team appeared set on, or at least open to adding some pieces.”
Seriously, get this guy some remedial English courses or can him.