While the Rays aren’t exactly threatening the luxury tax threshold any time soon, the team has been increasingly open to at least some modest spending over the last couple of years. Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension is obviously the headliner of those moves, but Tampa Bay has also locked up the likes of Jeffrey Springs (four years/$31MM), Yandy Diaz (three years/$24MM), Pete Fairbanks (three years/$12MM), Tyler Glasnow (two years/$30.35MM), and Manuel Margot (two years/$19MM) to multi-year commitments.
These deals were all extensions, however, and thus Zach Eflin’s three-year, $40MM contract from last winter was more of an outlier in franchise history. The $40MM represented the most money the Rays have ever given to a free agent over the franchise’s 26 seasons of existence. The Rays’ willingness to make such an expenditure surprised some pundits, for both financial and baseball-related reasons — why was a lower-spending team deep in starting pitching willing to take a relatively big (by their standards) plunge on a starter with a checkered health history?
Three months into the 2023 season, Tampa’s decision is looking quite wise. In the latest example of the “you can never have too much pitching” credo, the Rays’ rotation depth has been tested by multiple injuries. Springs underwent Tommy John surgery, and Drew Rasmussen (flexor strain) and Josh Fleming (elbow soreness) are both on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least August. Glasnow didn’t make his season debut until late May, after recovering from his own rehab from a Tommy John procedure in 2021.
Against the backdrop of these injury concerns, Eflin’s production has been invaluable. While the righty had a minimum 15-day IL stint himself in April due to back tightness, Eflin has been a stabilizing force within the rotation, and one of many reasons why the Rays have baseball’s best record.
Over 90 1/3 innings this season, Eflin has a 3.29 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate. The K% is Eflin’s highest over a “full” season (he had a 28.6% strikeout rate over 59 innings in the shortened 2020 campaign), while his walk rate is among the league’s best for the third straight year. The righty’s 52.7% grounder rate is also a career best, while his 37.8% hard-hit ball rate is (if only slightly) above the league average. There isn’t much variance between Eflin’s real-world stats and his expected stats, as his 3.34 SIERA and .277 xwOBA are almost identical to his 3.29 ERA and .274 wOBA.
Eflin is getting great results from his sinker, which has been his primary pitch since 2020. However, he is throwing the sinker only 34.7% of time, teaming it in a slightly more even mix with his curve (28.7% usage) and cutter (27.8%). As such, Eflin’s curveball has now also become a premium offering, and the sinker/curve combo has helped offset the cutter’s much shakier results. Combined with the occasional usage of a changeup and four-seamer to keep batters guessing, and Eflin is on pace for a career year in his age-29 season.
The biggest difference for Eflin in 2023, however, is just that he has thus far been pretty healthy. His 90 1/3 innings already marks the fourth-highest innings total of his eight MLB seasons, and he threw only 86 1/3 total frames in the regular season and postseason with the Phillies in 2022. He missed time last year due to a knee contusion, continuing the theme of knee problems that have plagued Eflin throughout his career — patellar-tendon surgeries on both knees in 2016, and then another patellar tendon procedure on his right knee in 2021. Philadelphia opted to use Eflin out of the bullpen after he returned from the IL last season, in order to get him on the mound in some capacity rather than spend more time fully building up his arm for a starter’s workload.
There hasn’t been any suggestion of an innings limit for Eflin, and though he has yet to pitch more than seven innings in a game this season, that is probably more due to Tampa Bay’s general approach to starter usage more than any specific intent to keep Eflin fresh. His career high for innings was 163 1/3 frames for the Phillies in 2019, so assuming good health from here on out, there is still quite a ways to go before Eflin or the Rays might have any concerns about his workload. With the Rays on pace for another postseason appearance, they certainly hope Eflin can pitch throughout October, and the potential returns of Rasmussen and Fleming will continue to impact the team’s pitching plans.
Tampa Bay proves it’s really not about massive spending, but spending wisely and development, something the Mets, Padres, Yankees & Phillies could learn about.
Careful about putting the Phillies in that mix……
As Dave Dombrowski said at a press conference during the 2021-22 off-season: “All we have is money” in reply to who he could trade to get some players to improve the team. Fact is that short of trading his core players, no one wanted anything he had inherited.
The Mets, Padres, and Yankees seldom develop players that are mainstays at the major league level. Since Dombrowski took over the Phillies he built an organization that has revamped what was one of the worst bullpens in MLB and made them into one of the best (without spending a lot of money); brought in Garrett Stubbs who they’ve turned into one of the best backup catchers on MLB; brought along Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm from their farm system that have become solid ML players; absolutely stole Edmundo Sosa and Brandon Marsh in trades; responded to losing 2 of their 1B’s to injury by getting something out of Kody Clemens (also from their farm system); turned Ranger Suarez into a solid mid-rotation starter as opposed to a bullpen pitcher (his crime is that he keeps getting injured); and acquired Cristian Pache – dumped by 2 teams in the past year or so – and turned him into a productive bench player that can play D, pinch run, and is slashing .316 / .350 / .526 with a .876 OPS and a 135 wRC+…although in limited play. Pache is 24 years-old and after being given up on by the Braves and A’s, there’s a chance that the Phillies may have begun to unlock his potential….and his possible upside is massive.
Yes, the Phillies have spent a lot of money. But IMO they’re one of the top 6 organizations in MLB. They make players they have under contract better that help their team win – which to me is what top MLB organizations do.
“Best backup catcher in baseball” and a 41 AB sample on a 4th outfielder with an over .400 babip. Some next level trolling here
AFrenchBullDog;
You’re the troll.
You need you watch some Phillies games……and understand that statistics don’t win……how a team looks at internal proprietary stats and in turn has their players fill certain roles with their coaches working with them is what wins….and that’s what the Rays have been doing for years.
Really tired of people that look at a spreadsheet, find a shortcoming (not hard to do with just about any ML player), denounce a poster……yet they don’t know what a cutoff man is or does…and why that’s important to winning….in fac, have no clue about playing fundamental baseball and how that relates to winning.
I didn’t address any of that. Just specifically the Stubbs and Pache comment. Not saying Phillies aren’t good.
…..and his team made the World Serie in his 2nd year.
DD is the most overrated gm in baseball. It’s not debatable. Lucked into a couple WS appearances.
It’s subjective, so of course it’s debatable
It’s not because I said so. If I was ever wrong it would be subjective, since I haven’t ever been it’s not up for debate.
Samuel-I would say yes and no to the Phillies.
The farm system is still not in the top six although the drafting and development seem to be getting better.
They had to fire Geraldi so the youngsters could play because he was Geraldi and he had no confidence in the minor league players.
DD is a fine GM and has made good trades.He has also improved the farm system players and scouting and development.We will see how much.
Clemens was acquired in a trade.
Not sure what happened to Painter but they evidently did not baby his arm enough.
What they have done as you say has improved the players on the ML team through managing and coaching.They are maximizing those results.
But the reason that they won the pennant is overwhelmingly because of the funny money spent by the owner.And in that regard they can be lumped in with the other three teams.
Kody Clemens didn’t come up through their farm system. They got him from detroit
But with stupid money, they make stupid decisions.
Well said
Still wish he was an Eflin Padre… oh well, we can still root for the player to do well.
The beloved Cardinals franchise needs to take everyone from TB front office.
Cards- Is that a knee jerk reaction to the management of one of the top three NL teams over the last twenty years+?
The Cardinals have a proud history and one or two bad years is not going to ruin it.
When I saw the Rays gave him that contract I knew that they were going to unlock something in him to take him to the next level.
Angels-The biggest thing that they have unlocked is good health.
Eflin always had the ability but never quite fulfilled it with the Phillies.Maybe at the end of this year it will show that the Rays coaching staff has.
Pretty interesting article…..aside from Franco and Diaz, and given that Eflin is having his “best” season while noting that he’s not been special in the past……….the others are pretty much middle of the road when you look at their stats……..praising the Rays for signing these guys is a bit overstating that they know more than any other organization……
They have the best record in baseball and have been competitive for the last decade or so despite consistently having one of the league’s lowest payrolls. They make mistakes, but they’re very good.
People were also down on Beane back when the A’s were the model of a low payroll/competitive front office. I remember him responding saying that due to the massive number of trades and financial gambles on players the big spenders don’t seem to want (usually injury prone) that there will always be plenty of mistakes to dissect.
Just keep swimmin
It’s crazy how the Rays are able to sign these guys to such low paying contracts, the players must really want to play there.
Not many teams were lining up to sign Eflin. He had a history of underperformance and injury. He went to Tampa Bay because they were the highest bidder. 29 other teams weren’t willing to pay him what TB did. For Eflin, its not a “low paying contract.”
Why is this a story for a trade rumors site? He was signed this past offseason and has two years left on his deal and clearly, he isn’t going anywhere as one of the best pitchers on one of the league’s best teams. This reads like it should be a post on a Rays fan blog.