The Royals are much closer to the worst team in baseball than a playoff spot. While Kansas City wasn’t expected to make the postseason, there’s no question the organization envisioned better results than they had in the first half.
There are a number of reasons for the club’s underperformance. The most concerning theme for the organization has been the down years and/or injury issues for most of their top young talent. Kansas City expected to be further along in the rebuild by now. Instead, a lot of the players they’ve envisioned as a developing core have plateaued or gone backwards.
That’s not unanimously true. Bobby Witt Jr. has stolen 27 bases, connected on 14 home runs and taken a huge step defensively. Even with a modest .300 on-base percentage, he looks like the franchise shortstop the Royals wanted when selecting him with the 2nd overall pick in 2019. Rookie Maikel Garcia has taken over third base with plus exit velocities and strong defense.
Aside from the left side of the infield, the Royals’ young players have mostly underwhelmed, however.
- MJ Melendez, RF/LF/C
Melendez, a 2nd-round selection in 2017, emerged as one of the sport’s top prospects with a 41-homer showing in the upper minors two years ago. The left-handed hitter connected on 18 longballs with a roughly average .217/.313/.393 line as a rookie in 2022. His power production has fallen off this year; he carries a meager .206/.289/.333 mark with six homers in 346 trips to the plate.
While Melendez walks a fair amount, he offsets that with big strikeout totals. He has gone down on strikes nearly 30% of the time this season. That puts a lot of pressure on him to hit for power, no small feat in one of the sport’s most pitcher-friendly home parks. Melendez has a huge 93 MPH average exit velocity and is making hard contact (95+ MPH) on over half his batted balls. There’s clearly power upside in there. He’s not in a great environment to maximize it and is striking out too frequently though.
Were Melendez catching every day, that offensive profile would be more acceptable. With Salvador Perez behind the dish, the Royals have deployed the youngster mostly in the corner outfield. Well below-average offense at a bat-first position means he’s playing at a worse than replacement level rate.
- Brady Singer, RHP
The Royals invested heavily in college pitching in the 2018 draft. Singer was the only member of the group who put together mid-rotation results, seemingly breaking out with a 3.23 ERA over 27 appearances last season. He’s gone in the opposite direction this year.
Over 18 starts, the Florida product is allowing 5.80 earned runs per nine across 94 2/3 innings. His strikeouts and grounders are both at career-worst levels. Singer’s strikeout rate has dropped over six percentage points to a modest 18.1% clip. His swinging strikes are down to a below-average 8.5% of his offerings.
Singer’s arsenal has backed up. His sinker is averaging 92.3 MPH, down a tick and a half from last year’s level. His career-long struggle to find a changeup is still showing up in his results against left-handed hitters. Southpaws have a .292/.373/.489 line in 250 trips to the plate this year.
- Daniel Lynch, LHP
Lynch, the 34th overall selection in the aforementioned college-heavy ’18 draft, has started 50 games in his MLB career. The 6’6″ southpaw has yet to find much success, posting a 5.10 ERA over parts of three seasons. His 4.18 mark through eight starts is a personal low, though he’s paired it with a few alarming underlying indicators.
Most notably, Lynch’s velocity has taken a step back. He’s averaging 92.7 MPH on his heater, down from the 94 MPH range in which he sat in 2021-22. A Spring Training rotator cuff strain could explain that dip, although Lynch’s velocity has fallen even as he’s gotten further removed from the season-opening injured list stint. He averaged a season-low 91.6 MPH on his four-seam during his final start headed into the All-Star Break.
With the drop in speed has come a corresponding hit to his strikeouts. The Virginia product has fanned under 16% of opposing hitters. It’s the lowest rate of his career, down nearly five points from last season. Lynch’s 11.7% swinging strike percentage is still solid, so he’s not losing whiffs on a per-pitch basis, but he’s had a tougher time finishing off at-bats.
Pasquantino’s disappointing year has been more about health than performance. His .247/.324/.437 line was down markedly from a huge .295/.383/.450 rookie showing, but even the diminished version of Pasquantino was one of Kansas City’s top hitters. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old tore the labrum in his right shoulder and underwent surgery last month. His season is finished after just 61 games.
- Nick Pratto, 1B
Pasquantino’s injury has opened regular playing time for the 24-year-old Pratto. Like Melendez, the lefty-hitting first baseman emerged as a top prospect based on huge power production in the upper minors. His profile also comes with significant swing-and-miss concerns, which have resurfaced at the MLB level.
Pratto is hitting .246/.331/.388 with six homers in a career-high 257 plate appearances. That’s better than the bulk of the Kansas City lineup, league average offense by measure of wRC+. Yet he’s needed a .395 average on balls in play to keep that production respectable. He’s striking out at a 37.7% clip, the highest rate among players with 250+ trips to the plate. If he’s to be a long-term regular, especially at a bat-first position, he’ll need to put the ball in play more frequently.
- Drew Waters, CF
By the time the Royals acquired Waters from the Braves almost exactly one year ago, the outfielder’s stock was well down from its peak level. The switch-hitter had been a borderline Top 50 prospect at one point in the Atlanta farm system, but mounting strikeout issues in the upper minors raised questions about his offense. The Royals were buying low to some extent, though they still relinquished the 35th overall pick in last year’s draft (which Atlanta subsequently used on high school righty JR Ritchie) for Waters.
Kansas City wouldn’t have given up a pick that high if they didn’t believe Waters still had a chance to be an everyday player. An offseason trade of Michael A. Taylor cleared a path to center field reps. Waters’ hopes of starting on Opening Day were dashed by a left oblique strain that cost him the first two months of the season.
Since returning, the 24-year-old has put up a .239/.293/.354 line over 37 games. He’s striking out an untenable 37.4% rate. Perhaps there’s some rust to be shaken off after the extended absence, but Waters’ early results aren’t offering much hope he’s on the verge of a breakthrough. Whether he’ll make enough contact to be a regular is still in question.
- Kyle Isbel, CF
With Waters opening the season on the shelf, the 26-year-old Isbel got the Opening Day nod in center field. He has just a .210/.258/.355 line in 37 contests. Isbel is making the most contact of his career but not hitting many line drives, and his overall production closely matches last year’s .211/.264/.340 slash. The former 3rd-round selection has been viewed by most evaluators as a fringe regular, although he still ranked among K.C.’s top ten prospects at Baseball America each season from 2019-22. He looks better suited for fourth/fifth outfield duty than a starting role.
- Michael Massey, 2B
Massey, 25, showed some promise with a .243/.307/.376 line as a rookie late last season. He got the Opening Day nod at second base this year but hasn’t seized the job. The left-handed hitter has a .220/.277/.320 mark with four homers over 220 plate appearances. Opposing pitchers have punched him out 28.2% of the time. Massey is hitting the ball reasonably hard but chasing too many pitches outside the strike zone to post a decent on-base mark.
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Without much progress from most of their young players, the Royals haven’t had many silver linings. A 26-65 record would be an obvious disappointment regardless of how it was happening, but it’s made more so by the scarcity of controllable players asserting themselves as key pieces for the future. Aside from Witt and arguably Garcia, none of Kansas City’s early-mid 20s talent is staking a firm claim to an important role for next season.
The primary focus for the next few weeks will be which veteran players get moved at the deadline, with closer Scott Barlow standing out as their top trade chip. Once August 1 passes, the final couple months will be about evaluation. Can any of their currently scuffling controllable players turn things around to head into the offseason with positive momentum to build upon?
I’m still surprised AA managed a 1st rd pick for Waters.
He’s a magician.
He’s like Jesus, but much younger!
That was John Lennon… How dare you
When AA walks into the room none of the teenage girls scream
Melendez is another perfect example of why you should trade blocked prospects instead of trying to change positions. It is hard enough for players to acclimate themselves to the toughest league they have ever played in, they shouldn’t have to add to it by learning a new defensive position at the same time.
Couldn’t agree more. Watching my Cardinals with Edman in center and Walker in right and Gorman at 2b its clear as day. And yes Melendez is the same thing. Nick Senzel was ruined by the Reds because they has too many 3b. I think he’s finally playing 3b a half decade later.
But I think there are times when moving the veteran is the better long term decision even if you have to eat some money on a contract. It’s strange to me that basically all NFL teams have “dead money” on their books. They consider it a part of the cost of doing business. MLB teams will go that route only after the player’s performance has become so painful there is no option but to outright release the player and eat the money.
I get that paying down a contract in order to facilitate a trade is akin to admitting a mistake. I also get that expensive mistakes get you fired and baseball executives(like everyone else) act in the interest of self preservation first and foremost.
I think the prevailing lesson should be, if you aren’t willing to admit to mistakes that can get you fired, then you should stop handing out contracts that are likely to end up as an albatross. Loyalty is admirable, but it doesn’t win you many ballgames.
At times I agree with you. But when it comes to a franchise catcher like Salvy Perez, moving the prospect would have been the better idea. If you project the young guy’s ceiling is near where the veteran is playing now, then it is better to move the prospect because most don’t get anywhere near their ceiling. Especially if the vet is already signed long term. Could you be wrong and end up trading a star? Sure, but name a team that has never done that before.
I threw the garbage outside yesterday……….Salvy swung at it.
Remember to throw your garbage up in the air because if it’s low and outside….Salvy will hack.
Royals Manager: Do you think we should play Melendez at C?
Royals GM: No. That’s just what they’d expect us to do.
3 bonus points for the Airplane reference. 2 extra points for being an Airplane reference that is not done to death.
I thought the A’s had worst team in the league locked down for this year but I suppose one should never discount the Royals and their track record of success in this department.
case – Let this be a lesson for the Bloom suckups who think the Red Sox tanking for 5-7 years will result in a pipeline of young talent.
There are no guarantees no matter how high you draft.
There’s no such thing as a can’t miss prospect.
And forfeiting any type of postseason appearance for the *chance* of having a good young team 5-7 years in the future is asinine.
who think the Red Sox tanking for 5-7 years will result in a pipeline of young talent.
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I would like to add that the RS being only one game behind the Yankees isn’t what folks usually refer to as tanking.
Joe – The most common definition of tanking is placing a priority on future success instead of current year success. Virtually every commenter I’ve read here, including you, has acknowledged the Red Sox are not going all out for a championship this year. You do not expect them to trade quality prospects for much needed help at the deadline this year, nor do you believe it would be wise to do so.
Therefore you are acknowledging they are tanking.
There’s 3 teirs buying1 standing pat2 and selling/tanking3 and redsox are 2 standing pat
From our friends at Merriam-Webster-
intransitive verb
1
: to lose intentionally : give up in competition
===========================
But, if we make the playoffs, I will allow you to use the term tanking.
Joe – You are so predictable, even when I said “most common”.
So making decisions knowing full well it will lead to more losses isn’t losing intentionally? It’s not giving up?
Let’s see what they do for the trade deadline, hope they prove me wrong.
The Red Sox aren’t tanking at all, much less for 5-7 years.
Hank – In 2019 the Red Sox were not very far out of a playoff spot at the trade deadline. John Henry refused to take on hardly anymore payroll, and they made only one insignificant acquisition. The tanking period officially began as the defending World Champions didn’t even make the playoffs.
From 2020 thru 2023 the primary goal was to reduce payroll, which they have clearly done (in relation to their MLB payroll ranking).
Last place in 2020 after an offseason without any significant expenditures.
No significant expenditures prior to the 2021 season.
Last place in 2022.
Last place right now in 2023.
And their payroll, which was the highest in MLB back in 2019, is now only 15th.
That’s 5 years for those who are counting
And many, including Joe Brady, believe the team won’t be competitive until top prospects such as Yorke and Mayer are settled into the team in 2025 or 2026. That would make 6 or 7 years.
Just the fact you are referring to these folks as suck-ups rather than supporters tells us a lot. I’m a bloom supporter in fact I support everyone on the Red Sox every player every manager. Why? Because I have no influence on who they hire who they draft and who they trade for so either I support the team or I don’t.
Any ranting and raving online is worthless, pointless, and an exercise in futility. Go Red Sox, signed Bloom suckup, I mean, supporter.
Gary – Why would I call his suckups supporters?
I am a Bloom supporter. I want him to do well, because his success translates to team success. That’s why I also point out when he makes mistakes.
His suckups don’t care if he does well or not, which means they aren’t really supporting him.
I’ve read your posts, you are not a supporter.
Who rants and raves? I don’t see anyone doing that. As Joe Friday would say, just the facts.
Not really pointless. Ranting here is free of charge. I have to pay a professional $150 an hour to listen to my sorrows.
Good point kcmark. Just like when I complain about the complainers, does no good except for my satisfaction/therapy I guess.
Can you copy that and send it to the Detroit Red Wings front office?……you’ll find Chris Illich there.
The athletics are also in a division that is better by several miles
Bobby Witt… such an American name, he’s gonna save em, like George Brett
Can you option an entire team to AAA?
Not too many people in AAA are even average in that league, so….I’m at a loss
Since the majority of the roster is a AAA roster, what’s the difference?
I think this team believed they were closer to a contender than they actually were. That’s why they brought in Aroldis Chapman and Jordan Lyles, brought back Grienke and added JBJ, Franmil Reyes and Matt Duffy. The best case scenario was playing decent ball and maybe have some tradeable pieces, the worst case is what they’ve gotten; a lousy team where they already traded the one decent piece (Chapman) for peanuts
Nobody starting JBJ is looking to compete.
JBJ was a sign in because we had an injured player and we needed depth that’s it. He was DFA once we didn’t have a need
Or running Lyles out every fifth day
the team wasn’t looking to seriously compete. much like other cheaper teams they got some vets on short deals in the hopes they rebounded and could be moved for more capital by the TDL
that being said, they certainly hoped they would have been better
C’mon, most teams are littered with early draft phailures……as a Phillies lifer….I understand the pain…
What makes me worse is I still follow the draftees long after they go to other organizations..
Mickey Moniak now enters the convo….bb/k ratio aside….
bb/k rate WAY aside, we do love the bottom line
Can’t wait to see how these guys are doing in a year or 2
The entire state of this organization is alarming.
When Duffman is one of the best players on your team you are in trouble.
There’s a trend here. They consistently produce guys with successful minor league track records, but they can’t translate minor league success to the majors. It’s a coaching problem. I think coaching matters more than most people believe. The difference between consistently successful teams and consistently poor teams isn’t always player payroll.
Don – I totally agree. Some teams have a knack for developing young talent even while having consistent ML success, like the Rays and Braves and Astros.
Other teams, like my Red Sox, don’t.
Fever- But at it seems the Red Sox at least want to become a team that develops talent. They just maybe don’t have the right pieces in place yet. As opposed to the Yankees for example, who seem to regard player development as peasant work.
Don – I agree with you there, the Sox do want to develop talent because it helps keep payroll down.
Don’t complain about the Red Sox. I’m a White Sox fan. You don’t get to do that.
Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benny, Vasquez, Bello, Duran with Marcelo, Raphela, Yorke plus others on the way and a nice pick in Teel. That’s not bad.
Rking – ML debuts in order from Betts to Vazquez … 2014, 2013, 2017, 2016, 2014 …. and then nothing until Duran in 2021. For a team with Boston’s financial resources, really doesn’t reflect well on their player development.
Benny and Vazquez are stretching it a bit, I am very high on Bello and Duran, and the last three it’s way too soon to make assumptions.
Remember Trey Ball?
Craig Hansen?
Mike Brown?
Rick Asadoorian?
Rusney Castillo?
Greg Blosser?
Wilton Veras?
Juan Bustabad?
Donnie Sadler?
Phil Plantier?
Otis Foster?
Blake Swihart?
Agreed and they’re addressing that…..
The Royals have just begun to bring in people to develop an organization. It’ll take years to get that in place. Until it is and a way of pitching, fielding, hitting and baserunning is agreed upon and coached (along with brining in players that can be taught to do those things), evaluating individual players is sort of silly. Most of the players in this article will be traded or released from the Royals within the next 2 years.
From what I’ve seen – Melendez has been trained to be a catcher and considering that there’s a shortage of quality one’s in MLB, I’d like to see a young team like the Marlins bring him in. As for Witt – he unquestionably has sensational natural talent….but thus far has been extremely disappointing.
The Royals knew their rebuild was a failure this past offseason – in the same way the Phillies knew theirs was before Dave Dombrowski was brought in.
Unfortunately the Royals are a small market team and not attractive to a name executive that cannot come in and be given a large budget to bring in both some name coaches and players to turn around the organization in a short period of time.
I’m still surprised the Royals chose to stay in house when replacing Dayton Moore. Nothing against their new guy, I don’t know enough about him to criticize, but if you are willing to admit the last effort failed, maybe it’s time for new blood.
Dayton Moore was always horrible at evaluating, drafting and developing players. He traded for Lorenzo Cain once, that’s about the only good thing you could say about his 16 years as GM. Moore’s stink surrounds this franchise.
Brilliant.
His small market team went to the World Series 2 years in a row and won once.
Check out how many teams have done that this century.
Fans have short memories.
These articles have become unbearably long. TLDR
It takes about a minute to read.
You’re kidding right? That’s definitely not a minute. If you can read that whole thing in a minute and retain information, then you next level.
Just got finished writing a note to say thanks to Anthony for such a great article. Yes it’s long but I think it’s very well written and the content is over the top. Great job.
It’s an in depth piece about the full team. If you want 20 second reads stick to twitter. The stuff people complain about here is crazy
Actually, even Witt isn’t all that great. He’s more like a great rotisserie SS.
Past that, as always, I wonder what Eckersley thinks of all this. He seemed to be pretty impressed with their young kids.
Anthony thanks for another well written in-depth analysis. Really enjoy your writing and the information you provide here on the website. Top notch article once again. Bravo !!
You can dig up articles from last year and this off-season where I said over and over again for Maikel Garcia to get a real shot. I what I might have been wrong about though was him finishing the season as their primary SS. I thought BWJ was gonna get moved to 3B at some point, which could still happen I suppose, but it seems as though he made big strides on his defense.
Why is MLBTR writing about guys who are clearly not trade or extension candidates? There is literally nothing in here about any transactions, even going into depth on ones that brought those players to KC.
This should be on a Royals fan blog or Fangraphs. Stay in your lane, MLBTR. Talk about transactions. Leave the statistical analysis for the writers who actually can write something harder-hitting than stats you found on Baseball-Reference.
Not everyone subscribes to The Athletic.
My guess is most of these players are on the trade block.
Pratto, Melendez, and Massey could all bring some return from a team with a small park who are willing to fix what the Royals have. With their years of control, they could make good bench bats for a contender this season – as all three have some utility – and be fixable in the off-season into everyday players in the right situation. KC is a terrible place for strikeout / power guys – and yet we have a plethera.
Singer is also a strong trade candidate. He could make a team a good 4-5 pitcher.
For years it seems the KC FA base has been clamoring for Kyle Isbel to be plugged into the everyday lineup. I have not seen in him what so many others has. He performs well against CLE, and that’s about it.
Salvy is my favorite player in the league, love his energy and the intangibles he brings to the ballclub. Without a doubt great for a young pitching core as well… BUT why aren’t the royals willing to get some return on him and give him a shot at another ring? We’re in desperate need for pitching.. and bats.. and damn near everything else you need for a baseball team. Why let him spend his last few viable years in this shitshow when Melendez could easily slot back to his natural position? Go get something for salvy now! Side note, thrilled that we DFA’d Brent Rooker a few years back given our current outfield situation
Salvy has a no-trade clause.
When is the next tier of prospects ready in KC?
John Sherman praised JJ Picollo for improving the Royals by bringing them into the statistics focused era of baseball. Based on the team’s current construction – it kinda looks like he took the build-a-bear approach and got all his ideas from reading “MLB for Dummies”.
Essentially the Royals have drafted a bunch of power hitters to play in the most power-unfriendly park in MLB. The strike out rates of the top 6 on this team are unheard of in KC history – Pratto, Melendez, Waters, Isbel, Massey, and Eaton cannot hit for contact. They watch more pitches than they swing at. They look lost at the plate. Everyone got all excited when the Royals fired Bradshaw last season – but I think the hitting problems existed deeper down in the system. Of course, they promoted from within to fill the absence – and we’re seeing first-hand – they don’t know how to develop a team for their ballpark.
Before the deadline, the Royals need to look to move some of these all power guys to other teams- ideally small ballpark teams looking for bench bats. At season’s end, John Sherman needs to clean house and offer front office and coaching jobs to people outside the organization. Dayton Moore and JJ Picollo have left this organization in shambles.
They want a new downtown stadium with this team? Go move to Oakland cause this one won’t win a world series in the next decade and it won’t hurt as bad as the last time that city stole the team.