The trade deadline is still over three weeks away but Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is already drawing interest, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
It’s hardly surprising to see Bieber garnering attention around the league given his situation. He’s established himself as a quality big leaguer, having tossed over 800 innings to this point with a 3.24 ERA. He won the American League Cy Young Award in 2020 when he posted a 1.63 ERA in 12 starts.
Beyond his performance, there are other factors that would lead clubs to pick up the phone and call Cleveland. The Guardians have long had a reputation of trading away their players as they get closer to free agency, with their salary increasing and their club control waning. Recent years have seen them ship out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger under such circumstances. Bieber is making just over $10MM this year and can qualify for one more arbitration raise before he’s slated for free agency after 2024.
The Guards are below .500 with a record of 43-44, but no club is running away with the American League Central division. The Guardians are just a game and a half back of the Twins, who sit atop the group with a 45-43 record. The Guardians are still very much in contention there, though that doesn’t necessarily mean Bieber would be off the table. There are few clear sellers this year and it’s been speculated that there may end up being more trades between contenders, with each trading from an area of surplus to address an area of need.
Despite Zach Plesac being outrighted off the roster and injuries putting each of Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Daniel Espino out of action, the Guardians still have a strong rotation. In addition to Bieber, they have Aaron Civale, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Rookie Logan Allen was optioned to the minors when Quantrill came off the injured list but could potentially be recalled after the break now that Quantrill has landed on the IL again. All the aforementioned factors led to Bieber being placed in the #8 spot on MLBTR’s recent list of top deadline trade candidates.
That’s no guarantee Bieber will be moved, as the Guardians could opt to keep him for the stretch run and even for 2024, though they will surely listen to any other club that calls up and expresses interest. It will be fascinating to see exactly how strong that interest is, as Bieber seems to have taken a step back from his dominant performance in previous seasons.
The righty struck out 30.2% of hitters in 2019 and that figured jumped to 41.1% in the shorter sample of the 2020 season. It naturally dropped to 33.1% the year after but has continued sliding, getting to 25% last year and just 19.3% here in 2023. He’s still avoiding walks, getting grounders and generally keeping runs off the board, as shown by his 3.66 ERA this year. However, his 4.13 FIP and 4.44 SIERA suggest he might be lucky to be there, with a .280 batting average on balls in play perhaps helping him out. His velocity is also down, with his fastball averaging 91.3 mph this year compared to the 93-94 range he was at a few years ago.
That puts the Guardians in an tricky spot. If they have designs on trading Bieber like they have done with other players in the past, his value won’t get any higher. They could always delay a trade until the offseason, but they would then be marketing Bieber for just one playoff push instead of the two they can offer now. There’s also the ever-present risk of an injury putting a dent in a pitcher’s value at any point.
But while pulling the trigger now may be the best time to do so in terms of cold-hearted asset management, it would hurt their chances of taking advantage of a weak division here in 2023. The White Sox are disappointing this year but could always reload and have better results next year. The Tigers are showing some signs of life and could be stronger next season as well. Perhaps the decision makers in Cleveland would prefer to try to take advantage of the door that is open in front of them right now.
There will be much to think about in the next few weeks, with the decision undoubtedly to be impacted by the results of the club, the performance of Bieber and the nature of the offers they receive. The trade deadline this year is on August 1.
I’d keep him for 2024 , usual career year in the walk year. Good for the WL record or great return if trading him
It always depends on the price.
4 love of the game is right, it’s pretty simple really. If you like the package, do it. If not, entertain the idea in the off season.
He has been trending down since his CY year. He is barely a solid #3 on a contender now. If he continues the way he has he might have trouble breaking 90mph with his fastball next year and the woulda shoulda coulda will no doubt get attached to him. With their payroll situation they would be better served trading him to a team like the Yankees that will overpay. I say like the Yankees because I don’t think they line up well in a trade. The Yankees farm is a bit top heavy and they love their top prospects a bit too much. If the Dodgers rotation injuries continue they would be a good match. They pay top dollar for quality players too. Cleveland needs to be more like the Rays and trade star players at peak value. Regardless of remaining control and salary predictions.
Bieber’s velocity is similar to 2022 when he threw 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA.
Greg Maddux didn’t throw hard and he’s one of the greatest. He pitched. So did Glavine. Bieber pitches now, lessening the chance of injury. If he’s winning games with a weak team and getting outs and innings, I’d grab him. He may not be flashy, but he’s steady…and an ace on many of the teams out there.
@thecoffin I think nearly every team in MLB would love to have a guy with a 3.68 ERA is their #3 starter. “Barely a number 3” is an absolute stretch to say the least.
Trade him to the Marlins. They need a starter as of 4:00 PM EST or so.
Literally the last team that needs to add a starting pitcher.
This is who I want the Reds to trade for.
For CES?
dixon.
…id say yes, because there’s 1.5 years on his contract
Not a chance..
AGREE cincy
curious, cincy…
considering reds infield depth….would you trade delacruz straight up for mariners c.f. Rodriguez?
No chance
Nope..
You can’t be that dumb
who are you referring to. matt?
You Larry Brown. The Red’s would be dumb to trade Elly straight up for any player in baseball, not named Ronald Acuna Jr and I’m not even sure I’d do that.
yea matt…I wouldn’t either. there will come a day when elly is the best player in mlb. there WILL come that day….and he shall ride a pale horse, and death will come with him.
In that hitters paradise a pitcher like Bieber would be a bad fit. They need a strikeout machine not a pitch to contact starter whose been lucky with his babip. Paxton would be an ideal rental for Cincy. TOR starter whose injury history should make him affordable for a team like Cincy.
Bieber is a much better fit for the Dodgers or Rangers. The Dodgers especially would give up good prospects more for his endurance history than his past CY performance. Iirc he only had that one shoulder injury back in 2021.
I trust Elias to keep him off the Orioles radar
Me too. Wonder if this is the time where the Orioles owner, John Angelos, takes that big risk. Going for that aging TOR guy that is expensive. IE Scherzer
I’d prefer they go for someone like Cease. Not saying that the White Sox are sellers but if I’m the GM, that’s the type of player profile I’m after rather than Bieber.
I’d trade a Hinds type player and throw in Barreo, but not a marte.
So you think a utility player with negative value (Barerro) and a lottery ticket prospect (Hinds) is going to land you Bieber. This package would have very little value to any team. Good rule of thumb when proposing trades is, if it’s a player worth having than what it costs is going to hurt your feelings, a little.
Bieber’s performance is down as well, so he won’t get the highest return right now. Plus they are all lottery ticket prosoects until they are in the bigs a while.
@Tobtt Reds; Despite what you may think, all prospects are not created equal. Otherwise there wouldn’t be any interest in getting higher draft pics. Yes, Bieber’s performance is down but no no.3 pitcher (if you feel like being less generous) is going to be traded for that when there is also a second year of control.
I think Marte is going to be more productive in his career than Bieber will be from now on. Bieber will probably finish the year with a 4 Era, and that screams 4/5 starter on a championship team. Rather keep Marte and HOPE they sign a SP next off season.
Bieber isn’t no longer worth a #1, #3 and another high valued prospect. Call Seattle and get Castillo and his fair contract back for Marte and others.
Would take Castillo back in a minute but doubt Seattle would give him up.
Bieber is indeed a no.3 pitched..at worst. He is presently putting up no.3 pitcher kind of numbers. While I can understand your reluctance to part with talented prospects, I am not sure Marte would have to be in the deal. However, you can’t possibly think your 15th ranked prospect by pipeline standards and a utility infielder with negative WAR is going to tempt anyone even for a no.4 pitched with two years of control.
Barrero is gonna be a good player for someone.
@Matt. I don’t know why anyone else would believe that. The parts of four seasons I have seen him in doesn’t justify that. He has had one good season in the minors in 21 but more and more that production is looking like the exception and not the rule. Lastly, if you are so convinced he will be good for someone than just keep him so he can be good for the Reds.
MattTheRed, Even if that is true about Barrero, and I doubt that it is, Cleveland has a wealth of middle infielders that would be ahead of him so they would have no need or interest in him. Spare parts are not going to get Bieber. Think of the number of teams that need pitching that could beat that offer.
Bieber is pitching with the same velocity that he did in 2022 when he threw 200 innings finishing with a 2.88 era. .
I would gave no problem dealing Marte for a great player on the mound because he is superfluous. They have tons of infield prospects and you can’t play them all.
I’m sure you would, and Cleveland would be trading him to someone else that offers real prospects.
If you don’t think Noveli Marte is a real prospect, then you have shown either your large market bias or you don’t know baseball.
OP said Hinds and Barrero, not Marte.
Sorry, hard to know which one is replied to sometimes.
@Reds. Feel you on that. I wasn’t sure at first either. You and I were about to agree a little MORE because Marte is a legitimate talent.
Agreed Hinds doesn’t get it done but Marte is asking a bit too much. Connor Phillips looks like an ideal Cleveland target. He has stumbled a bit this year so Cincy might be willing to trade him for a rental. Just a guess though. I don’t care for the Cincy/Bieber fit and think they would be better off trading for someone like Paxton.
Problem is they should have had a veteran SP in place before these two series with the Brewers. Instead you match up a rookie with Burnes and you see the result. They really needed to afd a veterab SP in the offseason but they were cheap.
This front office has always been reactive than proactive as we saw with the last minute Benson trade. By the time they decide to sddress the problem, it may be too late in the race because you don’t go head to head with your division rivals much now.
A game below .500 but only 1.5 games behind the Twins in the AL Central. A healthy Tristan McKenzie or a productive Plesac and the idea of selling high on Bieber to address other needs is easier swallow. Trading him now while so close in the division would look a lot like in 1997 when the White Sox, sitting 3.5 games behind the Indians in the AL Central traded Wilson Alvarez, Danny Darwin and Roberto Hernandez to the Giants thus giving away 2 starters and their Closer. The team would go 28-28 the rest of the season and finish 6 games behind Cleveland.
RSox: Was that the “White Flag” year?
Yes
Pepperidge Farms remembers.
I’m a CLE fan, and I say trade him by the deadline. He should haul in a nice crop of prospects, but if I was in the FO I’d want a major league ready RF with some pop included…….or even a LF. They have enough arms to cover Bieber’s absence, and he’s been wildly inconsistent this year any way. Getting a couple bats for the OF will enable them to send Straw down (should have been done already) and shift Kwan to CF. I assume they haven’t made that move because RF is shaky, and they have no one to replace Kwan in LF.
Brennan is really coming into his own in RF. Doesn’t have power which I would like to see out of a RF but a good platoon guy would be good, maybe an Adam Duvall type guy.
I love these writers! According to this site, no way the Cubs will pull the trigger on Hendricks option but there is no better time to trade for Bieber.
Hendricks is currently pitching to a sub 3 era and his FIP, which he regularly beats, is in the 3.6 range. Biebers era is around 3.6 with a FIP about a run higher but teams would get two post season runs out of him.
Lol they’re not sending Straw to AAA, he’s making way too much money and is still a gold glove CF. Tito will keep running him out there for his defense.
Check back in a few weeks.
They’re so close in a bad division, so it would be difficult to trade him, but the smart long term move is probably to do it. His numbers have been declining, so getting a good prospect or two is probably better than holding onto him. A successful organization like the Rays probably would have traded him a year ago and not even batted an eye.
Cleveland has young pitching and they could get some good prospects back. Usually you let it be known that a player is available than you ask for a huge amount early in July. Then as you get closer to the deadline you see what is offered and make a case at that point.
I think he would be a good fit in most rotations
Astros will pick him up.
Okay.. send over Gilbert, Lee and Whitley… call it a done deal?
If Jon Heyman says it, then it must be true.
Bieber To the Mets for Vientos, Peterson or Megil. and a minor leaguer
If they could get Bieber for Vientos and Megill, they should do that trade yesterday. Vientos is expendable and Megill is awful.
Typical dumb Mets fan take.
Bieber’s value add is he has another year on his contract after this one. He is not a rental, he is not on a bad contract and he has at least number 2 or 3 rotation skills if not an ace anymore. He is worth a lot more than some people here seem to think. Following typical front office approach they will want a major league player with skills, a high value prospect and a lottery ticket.
From a fan’s point of view, the dimished metrics are a bit worrying. No team wants to pick up a guy who is trending in the wrong direction. But the Guardians know what their pitchers are worth. I can’t think of a swap where they traded a pitcher and didn’t get at least one useful player out of the deal.
MLBTR keeps pushing these “diminished metrics” on Bieber, at the same time they’re pushing for him to be traded.
Cleveland history when trading established players entering their FA years is to 1) maybe dump a salary with it, and 2) pick up young players with control that they can work with.
They badly need 2 RH-hitting run-producing bats.
@Samuel: MLBTR is not “pushing for him to be traded”. They are merely reporting that there is interest in him, based on information from Jon Heyman of the NY Post.
They’re also mentioning his “diminished metrics” because he has diminished metrics. There is no incongruity here.
@samuel
There’s precedent for it to. Mike Clevinger had declining peripherals when they let him go. Still got a quality package of players.
I guess you could say Clevinger had declining perpherials at the time he was traded. But you’re also looking at perpherials at the 2020 trade deadline. Clev had less than 25 IP and only 4 starts. You’re never going to know if he had good or bad perpherials in that small of a sample size.
He’s most likely to land in the NL West, and/or a team that is a little ahead of schedule and doesn’t have the SP horses to compete in the playoffs:
Dodgers
Giants
D-backs
Reds
Orioles
Yankees
Rangers
Nobody has enough starting pitching this year. Even teams that are getting decent results are burning their guys out so it’s doubtful how strong (and healthy) they’ll be come the stretch run….and the playoffs if they make it. Bullpens are even worse.
Pitchers cannot go full out every time they pitch – usually trying to throw their fastballs at 100 mph and their breaking pitches at similar high speeds. Pitching a ball is an unnatural motion. Watch for key pitching injuries come August / September.
Owners should fire their FO’s for what they’re doing to ruin the investments teams have made in their pitchers.
Samuel: Pitching with cunning and guile (Yes, I know those words are archaic, as is the word “archaic”) are only used after a pitcher can no longer throw 100 mph. There’s nothing wrong with throwing breaking balls but a lot of pitchers throw as hard as they can to show off. Throw that hard enough times and your career will be on the IL, not in the AL or NL. You’re not a sissy if you can throw 100+ but you are if your repertoire includes mainly 90 mph curve balls.
I know his velo is down but I’m even more specifically concerned about the increase in walks and hits (and HRs). If you’re not striking as many out you can’t afford to start walking nearly twice as many guys.
even more attractive because you can cut bait after 2024 if he declines.
Yankees the farm give it
Who exactly does Heyman say is discussing Bieber?
The Guardians have multiple very good SPs on paper, but a closer look reveals major problems.
Cleveland as an org is more dependent on young starting pitching than most orgs, because they simply can’t acquire one thru free agency. Therefore, they have to not only develop them, they have to take every precaution to keep them as healthy as possible.
It is highly doubtful that the Guards will endanger their three youngsters…Allen, Bibee, and Williams…by overusing them this year. They are all on pace to hit their safe innings limits before getting thru 162 games.
They also cannot count on McKenzie and/or Quantrill to pitch again this year, let alone pitch effectively every five days. Plus, Civale hasn’t been able to avoid the IL for several years now.
Trading Bieber at the deadline would effectively be throwing in the towel on 2023…because, while the quality in the remaining Cleveland rotation is there, the amount of innings needed is not.
It will take a huge offer for Cleveland to throw away an eminently winnable division championship this year.
CATS44;
You’re dead on.
But the Cleveland FO is in a spot. Yes, they can win the AL Central and go to the playoffs. But there will be at least 3-4 other teams in the AL that are better than them that won’t make the playoffs. The overwhelming odds are that they get bounced in the 1st round, meaning they get revenues from one home game.
How much is that worth in comparison to the future?
Don’t underestimate the marketing benefit of saying they made the playoffs again. Don’t underestimate the need the revenue from ticket sales that meaningful games in September will bring in. Baseball is a business, after all, and the decisions will be made entirely based on that. So they will bring up oscar Gonzales and Valera and hope they can hit and we’ll see a lot of gaddis and battenfield and maybe cantillo if Bieber goes.
Saving the balance of Bieber’s $10MM salary plus whatever else they offload would help offset the revenue boost from making the playoffs and getting bounced in the 1st round.
I think they could still make it without him. Years ago they dealt clevinger for Quantrill and watched Q out pitch him. They could do the same again.
The haul that Bieber brings back could replenish some of that pitching, especially if they’re prospects offering years of control.
This is probably leaked by Cleveland to increase interest. Bieber is averaging 91 MPH on his fastball while out pitching his peripherals. If they had moved him sooner he would’ve brought back a haul but now he’s a mid to back of the rotation innings eater. Many fans here are overvaluing him based on previous years.
Merideth, Cleveland is known for being very tight lipped and not negotiating in the media so I doubt Cleveland is the leak. Bieber pitched 200 innings in 2022 with a 2.88 earned run average at a similar velocity as this season.
You might be right but it only serves the guardians to leak this. No other potential suitor would want to remind other teams know he could be traded. I think Cleveland is testing his market and using this leak to drum up more interest. It’s also possible Bieber wants out and his agent is leaking to Heyman but I don’t think that’s likely.
Since when are the White Sox having a disappointing season? Did anybody actually think they’d be good this year? What is that Based on ? Their performance last year? Their signing of so many stellar dfa’s this off-season?
Trade him! We have Nuke LaLoosh in the minors
I go back and forth on this. The best move, objectively, is probably to move him now. They have a track record of making this exact move and his value isn’t getting any higher.
But on the other hand, I’m not convinced he’d bring back an immediate lineup upgrade which is what they need most, and it’s tough to rely on a potential playoff rotation of Civale and some rookies. He could definitely still help them in the playoffs if it gets to that point. (They’re not good enough right now to deserve us talking about playoff rotations, but someone’s gotta win the Central.) There’s also an alarming shortage of veterans on this team, so moving him for another prospect or two when we’ve seen them mismanage a few young players over the past couple of years probably isn’t the best scenario either.
If they can get someone who can immediately step into the lineup and provide some sort of upgrade, I think you do it. If the best you can get is a prospect who’s not MLB ready or a few lottery tickets, you hold onto him. He won’t be cheap but they have to be realistic too.
They are not trading Bieber. They will probably win the division. The other pitchers they have fine to get them through the regular season, but the playoffs are different. They need him and his experience to be the rock of the playoff rotation if they want to advance again.
The Guardians, as AL Central Champs last year, had no chance to compete in the playoffs…except that they did…won a round and went five games with the Yankees. Everybody talks about the home run differential, but the real difference is that Cleveland only had three healthy front line starters.
The narrative that a team has no chance to compete in the post season is proven false nearly every year. Ask last years Phillies or the 2021 Braves.
The Cleveland FO has to balance that against future considerations, but Cleveland has been making moves for the future since 2019. Sooner or later they have to consider the present. Playoff spots aren’t guaranteed, no matter how many years you plan for them. Ask this years Mets, Padres, Mariners. When the opportunity presents itself, its foolish to dismiss it out of hand. It may not come around again for a long time.
*****
One thing that Clevelands front office has shown over the years is that if it doesnt get it wants for its pitchers, it doesnt trade them. It doesnt matter what Biebers peripherals suggest. He will bring a haul, or he will be pitching for Cleveland down the stretch.
Has Cleveland showed they don’t make deals if they don’t get what they want for Pirchers?
They got packages for Bauer and Clevinger but they certainly dealt them. Carrasco they ended up salary dumping.
It took eight months for Cleveland to get the package that they wanted for Bauer.
Plus, you can’t knock the return they got for Clevinger and an injured Kluber.
I wouldn’t paint the trade that included Carrasco as a salary dump…although it did do that. It brought back Rosario, who has been an integral part for the Guardians, plus a young Allstar, GG 2B. Carrasco was also 34 yrs old at the time.
That trade was basically…
One year of Lindor and three years of Carrasco (a combined $55 mil)..
For three years of Rosario and six years of Gimenez…plus two second round prospects.
Bauer was obviously a cancer. Kluber, Clevinger, and to some extent, Carrasco all had major health concerns. Bieber is neither a cancer nor does he have major health concerns.
One other way to look at it from Cleveland’s perspective…
At the end of this season, Bieber will have a year left in arby. He will probably get $15-17 mil. What teams wouldn’t gladly sign Bieber as a FA for one year at that price, knowing they would get a comp pick afterwards?
Not knocking their returns—they’ve done well. I think the time to maximize the return on Bieber is right now. Obviously last year or the off-season would’ve brought even more in but I can’t imagine they get anymore by holding onto him now.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go. I can’t imagine CLE wants to pay him $15MM next year. He’s worth the cost but that’s not how they operate.
With any good player, the time to maximize a players trade value is now.
Pick any front line player or pitcher….Jose Ramirez, Sean Murphy…anybody good. Their value decreases as their age goes up and their control goes down. And if the only goal is to maximize trade value, everybody would be on the block, no matter what situation the team is in.
While almost every team, esp those with limited budgets, goes thru cycles, at some point a teams goal has to move towards winning now. Cleveland has had the youngest team in MLB for two consecutive years, and done reasonably well. Every major trade since the Hand for Mejia one in 2020 has been for the future. At what point do they pivot to now?
One thing that nobody talks about when discussing Bieber is innings pitched. No matter what his K rate or velocity, he provides more innings than almost anybody else…and that has tremendous value. It takes 162 starts and a minimum of about 850 IP out of a contenders rotation to get thru a season. Bieber gives any team a good foundation to those numbers, no matter where he fits into a rotation.
Bieber isn’t the ace he once was. Velo is down and so I’d be surprised if he is traded.
Again, the value Bieber brings is not in peripherals, or even to some extent in results. His value lies in bulk innings.
So far he has made 19 starts and thrown 117 innings….6.2 IP per start.
Take the Dodgers for instance.
Their rotation averages 5IP per start. In terms of volume, Kershaw leads LA with 16 starts and 95.1 innings, but he’s on the IL. The next is Gonsolin at 13 starts and 67.2 innings.
Syndergaard is on the IL. May and Buehler are gone.
At the deadline, the Dodgers will have 58 games remaining…basically 12 turns thru the rotation. 72 innings from Bieber would look pretty darn good.
I know most folks no longer value wins for a pitcher…but here’s one other interesting thing. Biebers career record when he gets four runs of support is 46-2. He pitches for Cleveland, obviously not know as an offensive juggernaut. Imagine what that record would be if he pitched for LA.