At 36-58, the Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League and have MLB’s third-worst record overall, leading only the A’s and Royals. While Colorado has developed a reputation for hanging onto potential trade candidates at the deadline instead of moving them at peak value, manager Bud Black said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that the Rox will likely be more active in 2023 (audio link).
“I think there’s probably more potential this year,” Black told Power Alley hosts Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin. “…This year is the year where, possibly, you could see more movement out of us. With the players that we have, and what we have going on in the second half of this year, and going into next year and the years beyond, it could make more sense to be a little bit more active.”
Unfortunately for the Rockies, a number of their would-be trade chips are on the injured list — many with serious injuries. German Marquez won’t pitch again this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has a club option for next season, but that’ll likely be declined, as his recovery will span into next summer. Righty Antonio Senzatela is also set for Tommy John surgery, and lefty Kyle Freeland is on the IL with a subluxation in his non-throwing shoulder. Lefty reliever Brent Suter is a rental in the midst of a strong season, but he’s been out since late June with an oblique strain.
Others on the roster are sensible trade candidates from a contractual standpoint but aren’t performing well enough to maximize their value. Reliever Pierce Johnson is on a one-year, $5MM deal and is a natural candidate to change teams, but he’s also toting a grim 6.14 ERA and 13.2% walk rate. Daniel Bard, whom the Rockies extended in lieu of a trade last summer, has spent time on the injured list with anxiety issues. He’s seen a three mile per hour drop in velocity and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. C.J. Cron and Jurickson Profar are both free agents at season’s end, but both have played below replacement level in 2023.
The Rox do have a handful of interesting names to peddle. Veterans Randal Grichuk and Brad Hand are both impending free agents at season’s end and could draw interest. Hand was enjoying a strong rebound season before being tagged for seven runs across three recent appearances, sending his ERA ballooning up to 4.99. He’s still an affordable lefty with a 26.1% strikeout rate. If the Rockies aren’t afraid of dealing controllable relievers — particularly a pair who are of the late-blooming variety — both Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird should generate interest.
Catcher Elias Diaz, a first-time All-Star in 2023, is perhaps the team’s most appealing trade candidate, as I explored at greater length last week. Diaz is signed affordably through next season, and it’s unlikely Colorado will be in contention by the time his three-year, $14.5MM deal expires at the end of the 2024 campaign. There’s been no indication the Rockies would entertain offers on third baseman Ryan McMahon — at least not yet — but he’s signed through the 2027 season and is again playing superlative hot corner defense with solid offensive contributions as well (albeit in spite of a career-worst 31% strikeout rate that is an obvious red flag).
There’s sure to be some degree of frustration among Rockies fans to hear these types of comments in 2023 — when the Rockies have their worst roster in years — rather than in recent non-contending seasons. The Rockies, for instance, declined to trade either Trevor Story or Jon Gray when both were in their final seasons of club control. They received a compensatory draft pick when Story declined a qualifying offer but chose not to even make a QO to Gray, losing him with no compensation. GM Bill Schmidt recently suggested to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that he simply didn’t receive “legitimate” offers.
It was a similar story last summer with Bard, who was in the middle of a dominant season and viewed as one of the top trade candidates on the market. Rather than trade the 37-year-old flamethrower a couple months ahead of him reaching the open market, Colorado inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension that has quickly gone south. The Rockies also held onto Cron at the ’21 deadline and later extended him on a two-year deal that looked good this time last summer. Again, however, they hung onto Cron and, as with Bard, have seen his trade value plummet.
Time will tell how aggressive the Rockies will be and how much interest the healthy players on their roster will draw. But it’s abundantly clear the team is in need of some changes. Colorado is 19th in the Majors with 411 runs scored and 24th with 89 total home runs. The Rockies rank 13th in MLB with a .253 batting average but are 22nd with a .313 OBP and 18th with a .403 slugging percentage.
The pitching has been even worse. Injuries have surely contributed, but the Rockies’ staff looked highly questionable even coming into the season. To this point, Colorado starters have baseball’s worst combined ERA (6.44), and their bullpen ranks 27th with a 4.81 mark. Colorado pitchers have MLB’s worst strikeout rate (18.3%) and fifth-highest walk rate (9.7%). Their 1.51 HR/9 mark is the worst in baseball as well.
The Kris Bryant signing was one of the most puzzling moves I’ve seen in MLB history.
The Rockies wanted him (and were expected by most to get him) in the draft, but the Cubs surprised many by taking him over Jon Gray. I think the Rockies were just over enamored with the memory of him.
It’s like shopping for a hot Christmas toy and not finding one. The desire for that toy increases until you finally find one the next spring. By then the actual toy is nothing compared to the anticipation of getting one.
I would have liked to heard conversation between Harper and Bryant when he said he was going to sign in Colorado.
I don’t think it tops them signing Ian Desmond to be their first baseman.
And then Desmond walks away from the game and would rather forfeit millions rather than play for the Rockies. lol
If only the Mets had that kind of luck.
Their GM, Bill Smith, revealed that they had to sign him because they missed out on him in the draft 10 years prior. That says all you need to know about how incompetent this Front Office and managing group is.
If Rockies front office was smart, and that’s a stretch, they’d trade every piece of value they have.
Also, stop the Bryant experiment in the outfield. He’s a first baseman. Play him there, let him re-establish his value and find a taker either in the off-season or next deadline.
You lost me at if the Rockies front office was smart.
Bryant has five years and $136 million left on his deal. I can’t imagine he goes anywhere even if he rebuilds value.
Probably so, but if he rakes next year, I could see a bat needy team willing to take on some of the money at least. Didn’t really mean I see a team absorbing the entire contract.
He hit well (127 OPS+) in ’22 but only 26% of games. This year, he’s a putrid 84 OPS+ and playing. If he can’t play consistently AND hit well in COL, what team is going to take a chance on him? Would be interesting to see OAK née LV take a chance on him as a hometown boy/marketable asset, with COL forking over some cash, but don’t see COL taking that one on the chin.
The way I calculate it, if Bryant were a FA today, what would you offer him? It can’t be any more than $36M/3. To me, that means he is overpaid by about $100M. That becomes the amount of the check CO has to cut to get -0- back in return.
The guy has been playing outfield for a decade in the major leagues. I think it is past the point of calling it an “experiment” by now. And how you thinking he is a first baseman? He has played 32 games there in his entire career.
I shouldn’t even bring up the irony of you questioning the intelligence of the Rockies front office with these arguments, but I guess I just did. Oh well.
I think it is past the point of calling it an “experiment” by now.
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It’s no longer an experiment, but that’s only because the hypothesis that he cannot play the outfield has already been proven. According to FG, his DRS was -5 in 252 IPs in 2022 and -7 in 388 IPs in 2023. Added together, and extrapolated to a full season, that means he is roughly -24 DRS.
One might argue that his injuries have hurt his defense, but he’s been pretty awful in the OF so far.
He’s also lost a good bit of speed. At his peak, he was in the 91st percentile of sprint speed. He’s now in the 32nd percentile. I’m sure the lost speed has affected his range, losing the ability to track down things that he would have previously been able to grab.
Bad contract swap with the Tigers for Javy Baez? Add in some extra from the Tigers side since Baez’s hitting has been so bad (defense is good though). Baez could play at SS, 2B or 3B. The Colorado air might be just the fix for him. Or not.
Nope. Bryant is needed on the Rockies far more than Baez would be. The Rockies have Tovar set at short for hopefully the next decade, if not longer. Infield at Coors requires players to make all of the routine plays and that is not Baez. He makes quite a few dazzling plays, but screws up too many of the routine plays to be an effective Rockies infielder. The Rockies are set in the infield with Rodgers, Tovar, and McMahon for the foreseeable future. They just need help everywhere else.
Ok hiflew, no need to be a d**k but I guess that’s just natural to you I see. My bad for assuming a prior third baseman could probably figure out first base lol. Bryant has played the outfield for a while, you are correct (surprise!), but that doesn’t mean he has ever played it WELL. Look, either DH him or allow him to play first. Those look like the 2 logical choices on paper.
Also, calling Rodgers a lock at second for the future is a stretch. He has 2 more years of service beyond this season. While he had a 4 war last season, he hasn’t played all year and front shoulder injuries on hitters scare me. I view him in a similar light to a Jonathan India. Good players that mash at their hitter friendly home parks and that leave you wanting more.
To me, this team is years away from relevancy. If a GM comes sniffing around asking about Tovar, consider it. Could get a sizable healthy prospect haul in return for him alone (or definitely him as feature part of a package). Though young he’s more than capable of helping a contender this year.
It was only natural to return the same vibes that were received. My shot at your intelligence was no different than your shot at the intelligence of the Rockies front office. So either we are both d**ks or neither of us are d**ks. I’m OK with it either way, to be honest.
So build up a prospect and trade him in his rookie year just to get more prospects? And you wouldn’t have a problem with your team doing that?
@hiflew. Afternoon.
IMO, if I’m a GM looking for SS help now, I’m asking about Tovar. And because of his age/team control, I’m willing to give up a ton to get him. Rocks can’t hit and can’t pitch. Too many holes to think about being competitive for years to come. Get serious about a teardown style rebuild NOW!
I am not a fan of teardown rebuilds. I will not hang around for one. My money is spent just the same in a down year as in a good year. But I will not spend my money to watch a team that is only concerned about 3-5 years from now. I might be dead by then, so why would I care?
Now is and should always be more important for a business charging money to fans. Would you continue buying chips from a company that says our product might suck now, but we are gathering enough info to have a better product in 3 years. Until then, please pay the same amount for this garbage.
There is more than one way to build a team. Yes it worked for the Astros and Orioles, but it hasn’t really done much for the Tigers and Royals. The Rockies are willing to spend and always have been. And they have a good crop of prospects not too far away. The future can be bright and have the team trying to compete at the same time.
The jury is still out on my Os, IMO. I’m hoping Elias commits to a long term strategy similar to Atlanta’s FO. Which to me is identify talent and sign that talent to longer term deals which includes keeping everyone’s earnings in a range whether said talent comes from within or elsewhere. Looks like they intentionally stay away from signing a couple studs to mega deals.
How a team gets there is another story depending only on the wishes of the owner. Hopefully, he/she selects a POBO that best meets his/her vision. Fans just have to accept that.
But I will not spend my money to watch a team that is only concerned about 3-5 years from now.
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That feels like whistling past the graveyard. The Rockies are in 28th place. It is almost impossible to think that anyone would prefer 28th place to even 30th with a rebuild.
I mean, there can’t be a single person in Colorado that thinks “We might be #28, but at least we aren’t rebuilding”.
But the thing is the fans don’t have to accept a way they don’t approve of. They can choose to walk away from the organization if they don’t like it. For me, if I walk away from the Rockies, I walk away from baseball altogether. I won’t become one of those fans that just casually switches teams.
Atlanta SEEMS like they have a good thing going. But all it really takes is regression from a couple guys and a couple of major injuries and Atlanta would have a lot of long term money wasted. I like that they have not gone with an all prospect approach by trading for Murphy and Olson. They used their prospects as capital, which is something I love to see done. Most prospects do not pan out, so trading them for established talents is usually the best way to go. Of course it can make you look stupid when you trade away a Yordan Alvarez for a reliever or a Joe Ryan for an aging bat. But more times than not, the team acquiring the established player gets the better player.
Hard to not see it as a good thing, it has already worked better than COL’s entire existence…
Javy Baez is a fantastic defender and always has been. He’s literally in the 99th percentile defensively. I don’t know if you’ve seen a few blunders over his career but he’s absolutely so much better defensively than Tovar & most other SS’s in the league.
He can’t make impact contact and Colorado shouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole but it’s not because he can’t play defense for the Rockies. That’s way off base.
Lol Rockies.
2 weeks from the deadline and there has basically been 1 trade the Chapman deal. The Rockies were out of it in April. What exactly are they waiting for?
I think half the commenters on this site could do a better job running the Rockies than the current group they have now. And that’s not a joke at all I really believe that.
Traded Moose to Halos for a decent get. You seem like a casual anyway.
Camden has trademarked the word “casual.”
I know this sounds mean but just trying to call it as I see it – do the Rockies really have any player that is the “missing piece” for any of the contenders to want? Ok, Brad hand has had a good year – until the past couple of games, but he isn’t the old Brad Hand. A fair 7th inning guy and even then, if the last 2 games isn’t a trend downward or sign of a problem.
There is no team out there that is just one guy away from a perfect team. But each of these guys can be a part of it. It’s like when the Braves acquired 4 different starting caliber outfielders at the deadline and went on to win the championship. Everybody was wondering why they got so many, but each one provided a different piece to their puzzle.
What the Rockies also lack is a farm system that is going to produce players to make the ML team a contender. We’ve seen teams like the Yankees and Dodgers do it for years. Most recently the Reds and Orioles have several rookies or 2-3 year players that have turned their teams into something special. It takes a group to get it done not just 1 or 2 players every 5 years.
The Rockies have a great farm system right now. It is just light on pitchers. But I would put the Rockies top position players up against just about any other franchise. They are not the top by any means, but they are definitely in the top 10-15.
Ezequiel Tovar and Nolan Jones are both rookies that are something special. Brenton Doyle is another, although his hitting is not nearly as good as his defense right now.
The Rockies almost don’t want to build a farm system. Over the last few years, they’ve seen the departures of Arenado, Story, Gray, Ottavino, DJ LeMahieu, and held onto Blackmon for too long. What do they have to show for that? Two playoff appearances in the last decade and a meh farm system. I get that nobody wants to tank or rebuild, but sometimes it’s the only option avaiable.
I feel like they could have been in a good place right now if they had gotten back good prospects for Story, Arenado, Gray, LeMahieu, Blackmon, and Ottavino. Those players had value at one point. Could have really boosted the Rockies’ system and put them in a spot to potentially contend by 2024.
Glad I am not a Pirates fan if this is the type of thinking they inspire.
glass.houses.
Those players had value at one point.
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I only came into this thread to point out the same thing. Black says things have changed and that logic dictates they could be more active.
So what’s changed since Gray, Story, etc.? Those guys had real value. No one the team with an expiring contract now will fetch them a fraction of what Story & Gray (& Arenado) would’ve gotten them.
My guess, and I actually hope I am wrong, is that they will hold out to the last minute, and trade 1/2 BP pieces for a lottery ticket.
Hey at least they have the Gomber to lessen the sting of losing Arenado.
Hi – what does Atlanta acquiring 4 “starting caliber outfielders” have to do with the dismal team that is the Colorado Rockies? Do they have any such “steering caliber” anything’s?
Randal Grichuk is a starting caliber outfield in the major leagues. So is Jurickson Profar. They may not be All Stars, but they are definitely in the top 90 outfielders in the majors.
Profar has -1.1 fWAR (yes, that’s a negative) so far…
And just like that, someone comes
Along and pulls out a stat to show tjst Hi is proven wrong. No, the Rockies don’t have a needle mover.
It is my opinion. By definition it cannot be PROVEN wrong. There is no proof for any of this stuff we talk about. Numbers can be manipulated any way you want.
The only thing clearly proven is that you and I should not discuss this any further. Have a good day.
You’re living in a box where you’re always correct then. Guy points out profar’s numbers are horrendous and you say “he’s top 90–my opinion”
That ain’t on him for being illogical. If you make a point there needs to be evidence to back it up. Profar stinks with the glove and can’t hit this year.
Profar wouldn’t be on a ML team that was competitive playing like this. His salary and poor team are the only thing keeping him around rn.
Choosing the year when they don’t have great trade chips to be the year they’re actively trading people is such a Rockies move.
I’ll believe it when I see it. They should have been active trade partners last year and they blew it.
Anthony RENDON for Kris Bryant swap?
The article should also mention Harold Castro. On a 1-year deal and could be a useful complementary piece for somebody. Will have less of a place to play in CO when Rodgers is back in a few weeks.
I agree but seems like no teams want him like they didn’t want him this past offseason. 15-20 years ago every team wanted a guy like him now they want a home run slugger who strikes out more than ever in history.
Castro is a utility player at best. The only reason he’s starting as much as he is is because he’s a Rockie.
Not trading Story or Gray was malfeasance. I’d say it setback the Rockies by years, but with the clowns running it, it’s simply adding more bad years to the pile.
I get that you don’t want to “give away” players. But simply getting something out of players your not getting to stay makes little sense to ignore. And NOT offering a QO to Gray seems bizarre at best, and fire-able at worst.
Im not really sure how much value any of the “rentals’ they have currently would be to other teams though. They likely won’t get much for these guys. But it’s better than nothing.
The Rockies got Sterlin Thompson with the draft pick by keeping Story. He is better than any guy they would have gotten in a deadline deal. Shortstop was not needed by many contenders. IIRC, the Yankees were the only team with interest and they offered the same package they sent to the Cubs for Rizzo. Alcantara would have been nice, but Thompson is much better at the same minor league level this year..
Losing Gray was disappointing, but I don’t fault the FO. They wanted to re-sign him and thought they would be able to convince him to stay. They were wrong, but I respect their belief in trying to keep him long term. And it’s not like the return for him would have been THAT great anyway. Most deals that year were not for top 100 guys. I think the only deal involving top 100 guys was the Berrios for Martin/SWR trade and Berrios had multiple years of control. Gray would have gotten a marginal guy in a team’s top 20. Nice to have, but not a guy that sets the franchise back for years if you miss out.
Imo, you can fault the FO for not at least offering Gray a qualifying offer. ~$18 million is not very much for a solid SP. If he accepts it, you overpaid a little and could likely trade him at the deadline. If he declines, you have a good chance of getting a comp pick.
True. But I think they did Gray a service by not. I doubt he gets that Texas deal with the QO tag hanging around his head. COULD have helped, but you only get a pick if the guy gets more than a $50MM deal. With Gray, it was no guarantee he was even going to get that much. He may not have with the QO tag attached to him.
Hindsight is 20-20. You are not always going to make the correct decisions. But that is true for every franchise. I don’t know why the Rockies get so much more grief for their incorrect decisions as any other team.
hiflew I think the reason they catch so much grief, is fans like you and myself who have followed this team since day 1 in “93 have lost the excitement of what we used to have. Granted it’s played at altitude, but the years of the Blake Street Bombers was exciting. Then we had Tulo, Helton, Holliday, a decent pitching staff including the BP and closer and made a WS appearance. A couple of playoff spots after that with Cargo in the lineup. Then we had Arenado, DJ and Story and they were traded away or not resigned which for many diehards was when the hammer fell on management. That’s how we have become disenchanted with the FO and the decisions that are being made for a bad baseball team.
That’s the lament of every team that fails to pull the trigger on any trades. Tiger fans still don’t blame management for not trading Boyd & Fulmer back when they still had value.
If a 45fv DH is better than what you can get for Story, that’s on the FO.
Yeah, Brad Hand has really rebounded from that grim 2.80 ERA last year with the Phillies.
I am torn, because I really like Castro. I think he would make a quality bench guy. Kind of like a better version of Garrett Hampson. I honestly wouldn’t mind seeing him back in Denver next year.
Same hiflew and it seemed like no teams wanted him in the off-season. I mean Detroit let him walk for nothing but he’s solid defensively at ever position he plays and hits for the most part. 20 years ago every team wanted guy like him.
No they didn’t
Hittin’ Harold is not solid defensively.
Rockies will do the usual and stand pat while their loyal fans continue to fill Coors to support an ownership who doesn’t care about winning, but only to line his own pockets. They’re not going to pivot from and disrupt that business model.
Actually kind of expecting them to move Cron and Grichuk for anything they can get, especially if its a pitcher not recovering from TJ. But pitchers will their arm sowed back on will be considered too.
Bottom line is it all starts at the top. The Rockies have made the playoffs 2 times (’17 & ’18) since Keli McGregor passed away in 2010. He knew how to run the team and since that time the FO has been in disarray.
In fairness, they only made the playoff 2 times in the decade with McGregor before he passed away.
The Rox can basically be marked down for 2 playoffs per decade. Would I be happier with more? Absolutely. But I will continue loving my team and trying to excuse their decision as much as I can.
The Relievers will probably be moved, maybe Cron for a team looking for a 1B/DH bat but I’m not sure what if any interest anyone will have on Profar or Grichuck
Not much for any of these guys. The hitters’ stats are all propped up by Coors, and they still don’t look that good.
Grichuk is more valuable than Cron. He’s cheaper and plays multiple OF slots. You can always plug him in at DH also. He won’t bring back much of anything but Cron is essentially a giveaway if any team was desperate enough to cover his salary. I think they’d have to eat cash on him just to dump him off.
McMahon home away splits are pretty drastic.
Why are people surprised when players hit better in the best hitting park in the league than in all the others? Every player that has ever played for the Rockies or ever will play for the Rockies will be the same.
Didn’t hurt Arenado, LeMahieu, Holliday, or Walker. Actually it didn’t hurt several others like Tulo, CarGo, or Bichette as well. They weren’t as good as their peak value after leaving, but were as good as their end value for the Rox after leaving.
“Again, however, they hung onto Cron and, as with Bard, have seen his trade value plummet.”
That’s a lot of commas for one sentence, and you’re using one incorrectly.
“Again, however, they hung onto Cron and as with Bard, have seen his trade value plummet.”
Commas shouldn’t come after “and.” Learn this.