The Rays’ rotation has been ravaged by injury in 2023, with starters Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both going down for the season already. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and Shane McClanahan has been out since June 30 with a back injury (though he’s expected back tonight). Tyler Glasnow is healthy at the moment but has been limited to just nine starts this season. Southpaw Josh Fleming hit the injured list on June 3 and has since been moved to the 60-day IL.
Tampa Bay remains in first place despite that slate of health woes, but the rotation currently consists of McClanahan, Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. The Rays have had their share of bullpen games this season already, and with so many of their arms done for the year, they’re in the market for veteran rotation help. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they’ve already spoken to the White Sox about a potential deal for Lance Lynn, and they’ve also “extensively” scouted Cardinals rental arms Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.
Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM contract that contains a $18MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2024 season. The 2021 All-Star finished in the top six of American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-21 but is currently in the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career. Through 108 1/3 frames, Lynn owns a 6.06 ERA, due largely to an MLB-high 24 home runs allowed.
While the long ball has plagued Lynn at career-worst levels in 2023, he’s still missing bats at a high level and limiting walks at a passable rate. Lynn’s 27.7% strikeout rate ranks tenth in the Majors among qualified starters, and his 14% swinging-strike rate ranks eighth. His 8.3% walk rate is just narrowly higher than the 7.9% average among big league starters. Metrics like xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.79) feel he’s outperformed his baseline ERA.
Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option. Despite the poor results, Nightengale notes that the asking price on the righty remains high — likely reflective of both the limited number of starters available and the broad number of teams who believe Lynn’s strong K-BB profile makes him an appealing rebound candidate.
As for the Cardinals’ starters, both are rather straightforward trade candidates. The Cards sit in last place in the National League Central and are 11.5 games back not only in the division but also in the National League Wild Card chase. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak is already turning his focus to the 2024 season, and the Cardinals already look to be making some changes on the roster, as they’re reportedly set to designate lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today.
Both Montgomery and Flaherty, meanwhile, are set to be free agents following the season. The 30-year-old Montgomery would be a natural candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, but the demand for rotation help should create a trade return that outpaces that value. In 18 starts and 103 innings this year, Montgomery boasts a 3.23 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate (roughly average for a starting pitcher), a strong 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 45.9% ground-ball rate. He’s earning $10MM on the season — about $4.1MM of which is yet to be paid out.
Flaherty, 27, was one of the NL’s best young starters in 2018-19 but has been plagued by injuries for much of the past few seasons. He’s been healthy in 2023, making 18 starts and tallying 98 2/3 innings, but this year’s 11.8% walk rate is an alarming mark that represents a continuation of last year’s career-worst levels (13.2%). Despite that high level, he has a 4.29 ERA with strikeout and ground-ball rates nearly identical to those of Montgomery. At $5.4MM, he’s earning roughly half the salary of Montgomery and has about $2.2MM still owed to him.
There’s no indication yet that the Rays have had any sort of advanced talks on any of the three, and this trio surely represents just a handful of a larger number of arms Tampa Bay is considering. It stands to reason that they’ll check in on the majority of arms available, particularly those currently playing for concrete sellers like the White Sox and Cardinals. Each of Lynn, Montgomery and Flaherty has a good chance to be moved in the next few weeks, and each will draw interest from a broad range of suitors. The Rays, with a deep farm system and clear postseason ambitions, have the ability and motivation to land just about any starting pitcher they covet; time will tell which direction they go as they continue to survey the market between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.
TB trades for Montgomery and takes down NYY in playoffs. Love the storyline.
If that happens, I’ll name my first born, boy or girl, “Monty”.
That child will have to listen to Full Monty jokes the rest of their life.
Only if their friends are all 50+ year old boomers XD
I agree. Yankees won’t make the playoffs
YAY!!!
Yawn
“Dynamite drop in Monte. That broadcast school has really paid off”
Shohei Ohtani???
That should happen, but then, Minasian would have to take NYY prospects from Cashman’s cold dead hands. He values them more than everyone else (for some reason).
I was talking about the Rays actually acquiring a big player for once. I definitely don’t see the Yankees giving up 2 or 3 top prospects to the Halos for 2 months, that would make zero sense and it’s definitely not happening.
Why would the Rays acquire a big player? Because they’re too successful how they operate now?
With all those zero World Series rings?
Oh you don’t understand the mlb playoffs are a complete crapshoot I’m not shocked. Are you aware that only one team wins a ring every year? If your definition of success is winning a ring 20/30 should tank and not try to win every year.
Wait, the Yankees are making the post season?! In 2023?!
LOL. The Yankees will never see the postseason. I want some of your shrooms.
Beware trading with the Rays!
They’re smarter than you are.
Not always true. They were dumb to trade Joe Ryan and dumb to trade Nate Lowe. Rays typically make good moves, but they are far from perfect.
By far the exceptions to the rule.
The Cardinals alone have plenty of reason for caution.
* Randy Arozarena for Matthew Liberatore
* Tommy Pham for Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams.
Normally I think dealing with a team that has a strong farm system makes all the sense in the world but when it comes to TB (and Mozeliak’s track record with them), the only way I’d do it is if I could use them as a 3rd team and send whatever they’re willing to deal to the other team for somebody I want.
It’s a good rule in life: Don’t bargain or trade with those who are smarter than you.
That would definitely leave the WSox out.
That would limit the Sox’ trade partners to a dead cat and a box of hammers, but not your typical box of hammers; I mean a box of hammers that did some serious drugs in high school and dropped out after frying its brain. The Sox’ FO might actually be smarter in that case.
Devlsh;
Sure, Tampa Bay is smart.
But Mozeliak’s track record goes far beyond the Rays. He traded Sandy Alcantara; radically overpaid Nolan Arenado when his best 2 prospects were 3B’s; either allowed or forced a quality pithing coach to leave that has gone to the Rangers and developed their pitching; gave an outrageous long-term contract to Willson Contreras to catch and within a year no team in MLB will take on that contract.
Nevertheless the world class Cardinals fans are 2nd in MLB in average home attendance for a last place team in the weakest division in the NL.
This has happened befoore. In recent times Whitey Herzog showed up and rebuilt in a year – then when he retired and the team was in the dumper Tony Larussa showed up with Dave Duncan. When the owner comes to his senses the Cardinals will hire someone competent. Very probably the best and most knowledgeable fan base in MLB.
I don’t think it’s necessarily dumb. They were in playoff contention, were looking for a veteran bat, and the Twins were trying to get the best value out of Cruz. Lowe’s good but for some reason, it just never seemed like he’d get a chance in Tampa Bay.
Ugggh…Meadows for Paredes will haunt the Tigers for years!
I like Flaherty a lot and was hoping the Tigers might look at him in the offseason, since they will likely need to fill a spot with a veteran after trading Erod and Lorenzen at the deadline.
Tampa will turn water into wine with whoever they get. With that offence they gave lots of margin for error.
At least it’s not as bad as when the Pirates did the Chris Archer trade with Tampa. That’s an all-time humdinger.
I am going to get ahead of the media and report I have scouted many veteran starters as well.
I am a veteran starter. I like to start things and never finish them.
Next article will be about teams looking at Detroit pitching, because they are looking at all pitching, and haven’t covered Detroit yet.
Hopefully the Tigers are smart about dealing any pitching like they were with the Jimenez for Malloy trade and we get a good bat or two. I get the imression Harris might let it go down to the wire to squeeze the best deal out of another team. One article I read suggested a trade of some pitching with Texas for 2B/3B Justin Foscue who is blocked by Semien and Jung and has more walks than strikeouts in AAA. He sounds interesting.
Henry-Malloy is looking like he may be a DH replacement for Miggy at best. He;s cooled quite a bit and hasn’t found a fielding glove that suits him. There was a reason he was expendable in Atlanta. Knowing Hinch, he will be the right side platoon at DH.
Carpenter has been decent in the field so maybe he sticks there instead of going to DH like a lot of people predicted. Interesting times coming up.
Chicago will need to pay down that salary to get a decent prospect.
Yeah, trading Lynn on his own is just a decent cash dump. JR would rather have the savings anyhow than improve the prospect from really low end to okay. Can’t see any club giving up a really good prospect since he’s mostly been bad or hurt last couple seasons.
cws: Good or bad, anyone making over reinsdorf’s range of $3-5m are gone. They’re never going to pay Lynn’s option of $18m. They’re never going to pay Giolito what he’s worth even though he said he wants to stay with the Sox. No loyalty from Reinsdorf. You’d be kidding yourself if you don’t believe that this is another rebuild, the second one in six years
When it comes to Lynn, its not just Reinsdorf who doesnt want to pay out that 18MM. His salary option makes him a rental, so they wont get back much.
Reinsdorf has too much loyalty, not too little. That’s how Hahn and Kenny still have jobs.
As for Lynn, I don’t see any team picking up that option unless he just gets white hot to finish the year.
For a rebuild, I hope so. I know it’s the same baboons doing this one as the last, but I can at least have hope until they prove they’re going to fail like this group already has.
Williams was the architect behind the 2017 five-year rebuild that got the Sox to the PO in three years. Now, with Reinsdorf zipping up his wallet, he will again throw Hahn under the bus because he won’t give him the money to sign decent players. Until Reinsdorf goes, the Sox will be in a perpetual loop.
cws: Good or bad, anyone making over reinsdorf’s range of $3-5m are gone. They’re never going to pay Lynn’s option of $18m. They’re never going to pay Giolito what he’s worth even though he said he wants to stay with the Sox. No loyalty from Reinsdorf. You’d be kidding yourself if you don’t believe that this is another rebuild, the second one in six years. Reinsdorf blew up the last one. This time, he’s not even gonna try. (Sorry about the double post. The site decided to submit the first post before I was done.)
Rather see them bring back a Rich Hill than the likes of a Lance Lynn.
Should have known Libertore was nothing special when TB offered him up so soon after draft. A guy on our board calls him Lavatory, and I think that is pretty great.
He’s still young, you never know.
The article needs to more heavily emphasize that Bob Nightengale is the source for the unconfirmed rumor that provided a platform for the author’s conjecture. Maybe 10x the font or something.
The Rays *need* to trade up to go anywhere in the playoffs, and I don’t mean trading for Genesis Cabrera (which I can totally see happening–sending a C prospect for him, which wouldn’t hurt necessarily). Every season the FO talks a big game around trade deadline time, and every season they flame out and grab something from the dumpster. With three of their starters out for the year, something needs to be done.
The one time we actually did make a trade? Nelson Cruz. Yuk. I thought it was bad at the time–Ryan was an up-and-comer–and the experience did not change my mind. Pitching will be even more difficult to procure, but it has to be done.
It makes sense for TB to go after someone like Lynn. He can help the starting rotation til the end of the season, then they can let him go when the rest of their SP are healthy. The Ray’s would have to give up prospects, but the Sox are too dumb to get good ones.
Well said. They will get our hopes up and then “improve from within” from guys coming back from injury. Or like you said, grab a guy at the margins. Don’t hold your breath at the deadline.
As a Rays fan, I wouldn’t hate signing Lynn the player, but I worry his salary obligations would push the Rays into one and done territory for the year, which would be a mistake. He shouldn’t cost all that much to acquire in trade capital. Monty would be a good addition. No objections there. No interest in Flaherty though.
The guys I want are Kopech and Hader though. Kopech is the perfect Rays pitcher, as he dominates through 2X and then falls apart in the 3rd TTO. He won’t cost that much to acquire and he comes with 2 more years of control (which the Rays desperately need).
Hader is simply a dominant lefty reliever who would pair well with Fairbanks in the post-season. A dream Deadline would be Snell, Hader, Kopech and Middleton. Boy would I be pumped. And according to BTV’s trade values, the cost for that foursome would be relatively minimal. Snell and Hader are owed about $12MM for the rest of the year though, which sad to say, would increase the Rays’ remaining payroll obligations by about 25-30%. Hopefully the Rays are cool with that.
Kopech is one of the few WSox who won’t be given away even though he is very inconsistent. They’d keep him at relatively low cost and 2yrs even if it means converting him to a high leverage BP arm.
Mo2891: Do you honestly believe the Padres would give up Hader? You’re living in a fantasy world.
Hader .Snell. and Soto. are available. you are dream to think the Padres make the play off. FIRE PRELLER NOW……
Hader is in the last year of his control and the Padres are likely going to miss the playoffs. They may opt to stand pat or even add at the Deadline, but most feel that the Padres should sell. Definitely not a fantasy world.
Tampa really doesn’t have anything the Cardinal’s need, which is pitching. and by that, I mean they(TB) aren’t trading pitchers on their current big league team. Go for Woo from Seattle. you’ll be better off Mo. They can keep the Montgomery kid, more smoke and mirrors like Liberatore.
Go for Woo from Seattle
===========================
What are the chances of Seattle trading a #3+ type with 6 control years left? About -0-?
St Louis has plenty to get that deal done if that’s the path they choose. idgaf who they get, as long as it’s a legit tor arm tbh.
The Mariners need a 2b and a 3b. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman both play 2b and 3b. And both are more valuable than Woo.
Gorman can fake it anyways. It would be very humorous to see Libertore traded back to Tampa Bay. Gotta know they would fix him. .
this exactly.
I don’t think anyone is truly untouchable. That word just means expensive. Seattle certainly isn’t shopping him, but any good GM listens to all offers for anyone. Only exception I can see is if they’ve been unwise enough to publicly declare they’re not trading a given player.
Yeah I don’t like the idea of trading with Tampa.
Bryce Miller is the guy I want not Woo as much. Woo is from the West Coast I think he’s a better fit where he is now. Miller is from Texas he looks like Miles Mikolas’ hunting buddy.
I’m not even on the Gilbert train like everyone else either. nice pitcher and all, but his spin rates suck. any drop in velocity, or some minor thing go wrong, and all of a sudden he’s a batting practice pitcher. Now, Kirby, we can talk.
So the Rays could wind up playing the Cards they’ve been dealt.
Post of the day!
Assuming the Rays are willing to eat all of Lynn’s remaining salary, there’s probably an overlooked secondary piece they want included. Seems like a low risk gamble given his $1 million buyout for 2024. I think the Rays ultimately trade for Lynn or Blackburn if they decide to make a move.
Since when are the Rays the kind of tram that takes on big salary vs trading prospects?
They’re not.
I honestly hope the White Sox don’t seriously consider any offers from the Rays. The Rays are smarter than most teams and the White Sox are much, much dumber. Anyone the Rays are willing to give up on is someone the White Sox shouldn’t even consider, particularly if he’s a pitcher.
Why not Giolito instead of Lynn?
Giolito will probably be the most expensive piece on the market if Ohtani stays put
I think they have the prospects to go get him if they want to.
Probably won’t even be the most expensive piece in Chicago. My man Stro is going to command a nice haul.
It should be close. Giolito makes less money so that’s a factor that might lead Giolito to bring more back in return. But they are both 1 and 2 imo.
Flaherty going through the Rays pitcher machine might be the best thing for him with free agency looming
All these articles that feature Fleming and Rasmussen and I haven’t seen one mention of Flemming Rasmussen? The guy that produced Ride the Lightning, Master of Puppets, …and justice for all!!! Aka, the only Metallica records worth listening to. Somebody had to point it out and I apologize if it’s been mentioned but I haven’t seen it. It’s also funny that the cards are mentioned in the article because they could trade Lars Nootbaar to the rays and have ahhhh, nevermind, that’s quite the stretch.
“Meanwhile” needs to be at the start of the sentence, not in the middle where it is set off by commas.
Furthermore, this is straight-up bad punctuation:
“Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option.”
Not only do you not know how to use commas, but you also use the em-dash incorrectly. “And” should never have a comma after it, for crying out loud. The em-dash should be used like—or instead of—parentheses, not as an addendum to the end of a sentence. That’s what a comma is for.
“Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and—as of this writing—has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal, plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option.”
You got them backward.