Losing Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi for the season left the Rangers a bit thin in the rotation, and the club is reportedly looking to fill that void with a familiar face. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Texas has a “strong interest in” right-hander Lance Lynn, who previously pitched in Arlington in 2019-20. It isn’t clear if the Rangers and White Sox are anywhere close in trade talks or if negotiations are still in an early stage this far away from the trade deadline, but Nightengale writes that Chicago has “a high asking price” for the 36-year-old.
The 38-53 White Sox are on the fringes of contention even in the weak AL Central, so barring a major hot streak after the All-Star break, Chicago will certainly be looking to sell at the deadline. As of mid-June, the club was apparently only considering moving players who will be free agents after the season, and Lynn fits that description. This is the final guaranteed season of Lynn’s two-year/$38MM contract, and the Sox hold an $18MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for 2024.
Lynn is still owed roughly $8.3MM of his $18.5MM salary for 2023, so the White Sox could either absorb most of that remaining figure in order to get a better prospect return from another team, or an interested suitor agree to take on more salary instead of giving up any significant minor leaguers. The Sox might see a Lynn deal as an opportunity simply to get some money off the books in order to reload for 2024, and the Rangers have been such aggressive spenders over the last two offseasons that it stands to reason that they won’t close the checkbook now that the team is leading the AL West.
Between Lynn’s contract situation and Chicago’s struggles, Lynn is a natural trade candidate, and was ranked 13th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade deadline candidates. Lucas Giolito, another White Sox starter heading for free agency, was ranked first, and Giolito’s trade status will surely factor into the Sox front office’s decision on Lynn. With Giolito more of a valuable asset, the White Sox could look to a Giolito deal as their opportunity to add some valuable prospects to the farm system, whereas moving Lynn might be more of an aforementioned salary dump scenario.
Of course, the elephant in the room in any Lynn trade speculation is that in terms of bottom-line statistics, 2023 is the worst season of Lynn’s 12-year MLB career. The right-hander has a 6.03 ERA over 103 innings, and no pitcher in baesball has allowed more earned runs (69) or home runs (22). Lynn’s SIERA is a much more palatable 3.74, as it takes into consideration factors like a .328 BABIP and a low 64.1% strand rate, plus the fact that Lynn’s 27.9% strikeout rate is well above the league average.
Home runs have been the big issue in Lynn’s performance, as his 20% homer rate is almost double his career 10.1% figure from 2011-22. While this is such an unusual outlier that some regression might be inevitable, it isn’t a total fluke, as batters are having much more success at maximizing their hard contact against Lynn’s pitches. His 10.5% barrel rate is by far the highest of his career, as while Lynn’s ability to generate soft contact has been a bit inconsistent, his past barrel rate numbers had been reliably above average.
To this end, Lynn might not necessarily be the Rangers’ top choice for rotation help, even if they think he can improve with a change of scenery. His previous tenure as a Ranger saw Lynn post two of the best seasons of his career, with a cumulative 3.57 ER over 292 1/3 innings in 2019-20, and the right-hander finished within the top six of AL Cy Young Award voting in both years.
Ironically, Lynn was then traded to the White Sox during the 2020-21 in something of the inverse of both teams’ current situation. That offseason, the Rangers were in rebuild mode and the Sox felt they were on the verge of contending after completing a rebuild of their own. Lynn pitched brilliantly in 2021 and helped Chicago win the AL Central, though the White Sox then fell to the Astros in the ALDS.
Texas traded Lynn just a few days after Chris Young was hired as the team’s general manager, even though Jon Daniels was still calling the shots in the Rangers’ front office as the president of baseball operations. With Young now heading into his first deadline in charge of the Rangers’ baseball ops department, he is surely looking to add the final touches to a Texas team that looks like a legitimate contender.
If Lynn can regain his old form, that would go a long way to reinforcing a rotation that has still been quite solid even without deGrom or Odorizzi. Since it doesn’t seem like Lynn’s club option will be exercised no matter which team is on come August 2, the Rangers could view him as a pure rental for the stretch run.
south side hit men
Tekoah Roby for Lynn.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
And cash/ a reliever
tsc32
Are you insane? TK Roby for a 36 year old with a 6+ ERA?
tsc32
Be serious.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
And a solid reliever…
Mike 97
Eww no.
Deadguy
He’s a former world series champion… what do you mean no? Look at the accolades maybe not the best overall record, but tons of postseason experience to go with how massively underrated Lance Lynn has been his whole career
Maddux will fix him and he could be had cheap… I’ve seen what the people in the Rangers org do to people they see something in… Adolis Garcia was had for 30 pieces of silver then DFA’ed
mcmillankmm
Underrated? I’m not sure about that.
ski44
Can’t trust this front office to do anything. The FO needs to be replaced before yet another “retool” or “rebuild”.
jvent
Hey Texas you can have Scherzer and Marte from the Mets the Mets will pay part of this years salary for Jack Leiter and minor league pitchers or bullpen arms the Mets need young pitchers
guilderc
Why would the Rangers trade Jack Leiter for 2 negative value players where the Mets pay “part of this years salary”. The Mets would get 2-3 low level arms that almost nobody has heard of for Scherzer and $15-20 mil. And the Mets may or may not have to get Scherzer to opt-in for 2024 now as part of that deal..
jvent
So they can try to make it out of the 1st round of the playoffs that’s why
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Leiter for a league average guy making 43 million and “some” cash? Lol. Maybe 75% of the next 1.5 years’ salary and you get Cole Winn or Luisangel Acuna…
jvent
Sure the Mets will give you $60 mil to cover Scherzer lol for a minor leaguer lol
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Top 100 prospect…
dodgersfan445
High asking price for a guy with a 6 era??? Might as well just swing a minor league deal.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
I was about to just say that. He was elite in terms of run prevention * innings (WAR) in 2019 and 2020, but I wouldn’t give up much for him. There has to be a buyer for there to be a seller; otherwise, enjoy that contract! Maybe a Semien or Perez for Lynn dump?
MIKE Eezy
Did you just suggest Semien for Lynn!!??? What is wrong with you!? An All-Star second baseman on a 7 year contract for a rental with a 6+ era. Wow.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
There are no real second baseman. They can sign a decent on. That 10% above league average production isn’t worth 25 million. Kiner Falefa can get an 80 OPS+ and play similar defense. I stand by that.
Zach Beezy
Are you high, drunk, or both? A STARTING 2nd baseman for the AL Allstar team for an older pitcher, past his prime, with a high era? You think we should do this straight up? Or, maybe we can pay the full salary?!?! Clown. No way. And, IKF wasn’t anywhere near good. Serviceable, sure. But, we’ve got the best in baseball there right now.
Rishi
DTR-Why am I not allowed to reply to your post a few above but I can reply to this one? Another person I know has the same problem with responding to you? Are we blocked or not?lol
MIKE Eezy
Im not sure you follow many trades or baseball for that matter. That is no where NEAR a realistic trade. Also, IKF plays everywhere other than 2B.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
If course, they would ask for a reliever or 2, but Semien is thr one-eyed in the land of the blind. Altuve is thr only other remotely decent gut. Look at his current stats, not some cherry-picked stats from games 12-60 or something.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
Saying he is the best in baseball is the most idiotic thing I have ever heard. Arraez has a 900 OPS and more walks than strikeouts, not to mention he is close to 400. There is also Albies. Being optimistic makes sense, but chill off with the best in baseball nonsense. I am a Rangers’ fan. I love Jung, but only Seager should have been a lock. The others got pushed into the All Star game. Being an All Star is something he shares with Whit Merrifield.
Jm207* 2
Arraez only hits singles. He’s an empty batting avg hitter. Semien does a lot more than Arraez does. Semien can also play defense.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
It’s a fair point but imagine what they could do with that cash. They can take on a lot of Scherzer/Verlander’s salary and move Foscue to 2nd. It’s high-risk, but there are many dumps they can trade for.
jacl
I don’t care if he only bunts for singles and has zero home runs. OBP is the only star that matters. if you have a team with 9 guys with an OBP above . 350 your going to win a world series even if they don’t hit one homer all year long. The pitching needs to be at least avg also. home runs aren’t even the most exciting thing. move the fences back 40 feet and let’s get more triples and inside the park home runs.
jacl
I agree with me.
MIKE Eezy
Nobody said Semien was the best 2B in the league. But he also is very good at the position and not a contract that a rebuilding team would take on. Plus hes a veteran and main cog of the lineup. Not how baseball trades work, its prospects so figure that part out first. Secondly, none of the positions were locks they got voted in because they had better overall numbers than other players at their respective positions. Thats how the All Star game works. Youre making less and less sense with each of your post. Good luck on any other selling points you have.
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
That was a dream. Still, I can’t imagine Texas giving up much for him without getting cash and a reliever. Maybe a guy out of the top 20? I have followed trades since 2010, and I get it is not happening for a rebuilding team, but one can hope, right?
IronBallsMcGinty
As a Sox fan I’d be happy with Lynn for Semien lol.
BrianStrowman9
@jacl
Nice OBP of .350.
I wonder if all 9 guys can walk themselves home. You need a little bit of everything in a lineup. Guys who can knock them in and guys who get on to be driven in.
Joshy
We’ll do you .8 ERA better and ship you Marco Gonzales for say Tekoah Roby or Marc Church. He’s not healthy yet but will be soon.
ayrbhoy
I know you’re joking. You will know, as an M’s fan that Semien already turned down the M’s advances in FA 2 yrs ago. You’ll also know that TX wont trade him to a Divisional team who suddenly just came from 13g back not too long ago to just 6.0g back in the Division!
I know you’re playing but could u imagine if the M’s did trade their 5th Starter? When you think back to the rifts after the Graveman trade – Could you imagine the reaction in that SEA clubhouse if they traded away Marco? Granted he’s up and down but he’s a really good 5th SP. Woo and Miller will be on an innings limit, esp Woo coming off TJ. Marco will definitely be needed down the stretch. He gets a lot of abuse Marco- but when you look around the Lg at 5th Starters he is quietly one of the more dependable SP5’s in baseball.
Man! An awful lot of words from a flippant comment eh!? Haha I just wanted an excuse to slip in the cheeky 13g to 6g AL W deficit comment haha
Rishi
Just stay away from pitchers named Jake/Jacob.
Rishi
Don’t see how you can justify “a high asking price” with a 36 year old with a 6 era. I like the guy and he’s pitches okay lately tho but seriously.
brushbackmlb
I’m sure the “high asking price” at the moment is just posturing. Also the White Sox FO has a history of over-valuing their players. At the end of the day they’ll probably take the salary dump. As a White Sox fan, I hope they pay as much of the salary as possible to get something of value back, but I’ve got no confidence in that. I like that you mention he’s been pitching well lately – very true. He’s been like this old Cy Young vote-getting self lately. Not sure if he figured out something mechanically or got over an injury, but he’s looking outstanding over the last few games (yes, small sample size, but reason for optimism).
YankeesBleacherCreature
16 and 11 K games in his last five starts is no fluke. Also walked no more than 2 per. It’s a mechanical flaw he has seemingly fixed.
Overbrook
Hahn may “overvalue” his players in the sense that he is shocked at how terrible the teams he puts out there are.. But when it comes to trades, he has set GM records in pure giveaways. And I’m sure the GMs this July are holding out for more gifts, and they may be rewarded, as feckless as Hahn is.
In terms of trades, Hahn in no way overvalues his players.
Brick House Coffee Tables Inc
If Texas is willing to take on the salary, the White Sox should be happy with a A ball middle infielder such as Danyer Cueva who doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man for a while, and maybe throw in a complex lefty for appearances sake.
Texassooner
I hope not! Don’t embarrass yourself by suggesting any legitimate prospect for him.
mrb163
giolito more likely
Mr_KLC
Astros need to go for him. He’s cheap as far as prospect capital goes, and can eat innings, taking pressure off the innings load that their young arms are already accumulating.
rabidrabbit
“baesball” is the best spelling mistake ever, I love it 😛
MadSkillsUniversity
Yep, ship Lynn, Hahn and KW in exchange for a minor leader pitcher and a bag of bats and balls. LOL. THEN, we can talk re-tooling. .
msqboxer
Price would be mid tier prospects between 15-25 on their list. Something like a Church and Kelly.
Motor City Beach Bum
Call the Tigers and grab Erod or Lorenzen and some bullpen help all at once…Lange or Foley would cost you a lot though! Pitching doesn’t come for free and with so many teams hanging around you will have to open up the prospect vault! Foscue and Leiter? Carter and Rocker?
nrd1138
While Lynn has been pitching better of late, I think the White Sox are just going to have to expect they are not getting ‘top’ value for any of their available players. They’ll have to hope their scouting dept can find those ‘diamonds’ in the 10th-15th (or the 15-20th) best prospects on a team (if not lower still). Giolito (or if Jimenez or Vaughn are available) will likely fetch the most, but even then Im guessing he is only to be worth a mid to lower rung prospect out of a teams list, regardless of the need of said team. Hahn is not really in the driver seat, but Im guessing he thinks he is.
Overbrook
Hahn is in the drivers seat; he doesn’t have to trade any of these guys. Now whether he realizes it or not is another question, as he usually just gives players away in July.
Pitching is scarce. If teams want it, they can pay for it. Otherwise, just take the draft pick (Giolito) or bring him back for another season. (Lynn).
nrd1138
Gio ain’t coming back, he declined the extension a year ago. I doubt he has had a change of heart. Also, no, Hahn is NOT in the driver seat many of these trade chips of his have expiring deals.. The only guy desperate enough to give up the store for a guy like Lynn is the guy who has him currently. If the Sox get anything for Lynn that is decent I will be genuinely surprised.
Roper
Rangers aren’t trading Semien or Carter, or selling low on Leiter or Rocker. I “think” they “might” move any of the following in the right deal: #6 Justin Foscue, #7 Dustin Harris, #8 Aaron Zavala, or #13 Cole Winn. These guys would be top 5 in most systems including the White Sox that we are discussing here. Lynn might fetch one of the four with cash added. Giolitto might fetch two. Throwing in Graveman and eating salary might fetch three. Cease and Graveman (with no cash thrown in)
brings all four.
HBan22
They’d have to give up quite a lot to get both Cease and Graveman, but they have the prospect depth to pull it off. Carter would probably have to be included as the centerpiece.
User 1104686089
Nah, Texas has a deep system. They can put together a good enough package to get pretty much anyone not named Ohtani without giving up the untouchables. I think anyone with dreams of Evan Carter migrating to their farm system is smoking something pretty strong. Texas is pretty proud of the fact that they scooped everyone for that draft pick.
ponytail01
It would take Owen White to start the conversation.
User 1104686089
I’m not conviced you will geet someone in the top 100 for Lynn, he’s a pure rental maybe Tekoah Roby. I would be pretty shocked if the Rangers trade their best pitching prospect for a 36 year old pure rental having a bad year.
ponytail01
He’s pitching very well lately. Sixteen strikeouts recently. He has an option and the Sox gave Texas one of their top prospects ( Dane Dunning) to get him from Texas.
User 1104686089
That was a different situation. It was an off-season trade and Lynn was fresh off of a 6th place CY young finish, very different than trading for a pure rental on a bad year.
Quinnap89
Somehow the Rangers will end up paying way more than they should for the 36 year old. White Sox will have to eat most of that contract but they will be heavily compensated in farm system acquisitions
User 1104686089
Why do you say that? Texas actually trades pretty well. They scout and develop porrly but trades have been fairly kind to us lately.
Quinnap89
I agree with you. Texas trades very well. It is believed that Chicago wants quite a haul for him. I hope they don’t overpay for Lynn.
BrianStrowman9
Lynn’s not going to cost much. It’ll be a low level prospect with slight upside. They aren’t getting real prospects back for him with the performance and salary owed.
msqboxer
Lynn is a Bochy type guy….He gives you 6 innings in just about every outing and if you look at his game logs the CWS just don’t give him any run support. He’s not going to fetch top 10 prospect, but should get you 2 in the 15-25 range. If I’,m the Rangers I do that deal just to have him down the stretch and in the playoffs because the Rangers can score some runs.
cleveland_spider
Reminds me a lot of Mark Buehrle