When Padres team chairman Peter Seidler recently discussed his vision for the club ahead of the coming trade deadline, he made clear he believed in the current iteration of the club and seemed to have no desire to sell at the trade deadline. That confidence comes in spite of an ugly first half of the 2023 season. In 88 games so far this season, the Padres have gone just 41-47, leaving them ten games back looking up at three teams in the NL West. The club’s Wild Card outlook isn’t much better, as San Diego is 8.5 games back with five teams standing between them and the final Wild Card spot
Of course, club ownership rarely directly makes baseball operations decisions. Given that, the decision on whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline in three weeks will likely be made by Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. A notoriously aggressive GM, Preller has built a star-studded roster with a massive payroll in recent years. Since the end of the 2020 campaign, when San Diego first made the playoffs under Preller, the club has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto in blockbuster trades while signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal and signing each of Darvish, Musgrove, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. to big money extensions.
To reverse course completely would be near impossible. Musgrove and right-hander Robert Suarez are both signed through the 2027 campaign, while Darvish is signed through 2028. Infielder Jake Cronenworth is signed through the 2030 season, Machado and Bogaerts are both signed through 2033, while Tatis is signed through the end of the 2034 campaign. Between those seven players, the Padres are on the hook for roughly $107.5MM in terms of actual dollars and just over $137MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. With so many big money contracts on the books not just for next season, but for the better part of the decade or longer, trading long-term assets seems both unwise and difficult.
Given the club’s position, it’s possible that the front office will decide to double down and hope the team’s performance will improve in the second half. Suarez has yet to pitch this season and could help stabilize the bullpen upon his return, while each of Darvish, Machado, and Bogaerts are multi-time All Stars with lengthy track records of success; it’s surely not hard for Preller’s front office to talk themselves into that group improving upon their current 2023 performance going forward. With plenty of talent on the roster and glaring holes behind the plate, at DH, and on the bench, San Diego could retain their key players and deal for moderate upgrades to the weakest areas on the roster in hopes of things improving during the season’s final two months.
On the other hand, the club could look to retool for the future. Snell and Hader would immediately be among the most coveted rental arms on the market if the Padres listened on the pair, while Seth Lugo would surely interest a variety of contenders given his ability to swing in and out of the rotation. Lightly selling would allow the Padres to recoup value on their pending free agents and bolster a farm system that’s been raided by years of aggressive buy-side deals. What’s more, it would allow San Diego to take advantage of a trade market with few clearly established sellers.
Of course, the club could opt to take a middle ground option as well, dealing some of their pending free agents while also adding big league pieces with multiple years of control in hopes of giving themselves a chance to bounce back during the second half while attempting to maximize the club’s odds of winning in 2024, Soto’s last year of team control. Such an approach comes with its own unique risks, however. Dealing away key players can have impacts in the clubhouse, as the Brewers saw when dealing Hader to San Diego last year and Seattle saw after trading closer Kendall Graveman in 2021.
With just three weeks left until the trade deadline, the Padres will be forced to make a decision in the near future. How should San Diego approach this trade deadline? Do they need to stay the course and give themselves the best chance to win while Soto is under team control? Should they try to rebuild their farm system and look toward 2024 and beyond? Or perhaps they should try to do a bit of both?
(poll link for app users)
They will be stuck with all those big contracts and they should.
Lesson should be learned.
…. as if absolutely noooobody would take Soto or Machado
I’d take Soto in a heartbeat. Tough sell though on the 31 year old 3rd baseman
400 millions for Soto,,!!!!!,no way José
His name is Juan and unless he completely falls off the map, he will get his $400+ million in FA.
Soto doesn’t qualify as a big contract. And no chance you trade Machado without taking a loss.
They been making awful moves for how long? They would have learned years ago if they were capable. Like many things, it has to get so bad before some people realize it.
Trade away Hader, Wacha, Lugo, maybe Martinez (if he has any value) for close to mlb ready players.
Trade for a legitimate first base prospect like CES. Perhaps also a TOR starter controllable thru 24 like burnes. Win a WS
And extend Snell if it isn’t an outrageous price
Not sure the reds need hader..diaz looks amazing and nobody is giving up CE S or that level for the collection of wacha etc
@poolhall
They wouldn’t be swapping the guys I mentioned for the guys I’d like them to acquire. Pads would need to add some of their own blue chip guys. I’m no AJ “fan”, but he’s shown a knack to construct creative deals.
I guess you don’t watch very many Padre Games. JAKE is a Superb 1st Baseman. Granted his BA is lower than normal
Jake at 2B was fantastic and he was a middle class offensive threat there, a defensive wizard, and an all-star. But among 1Bmen who qualify in MLB, he’s 22nd out of 24 in OPS, and 23rd out of 25 in SLG%. Wrong place for a weak bat.
That was always the part of the signing I didn’t understand. Kim is likely a good bit better than Bogaerts. In terms of alignment, since it was always going to be Bogaerts, Kim & Cro at 1B, 2B, and SS, in some sort of mix, one could argue that they effectively paid $285M to bring in Bogaerts to play 1st.
They should kept Kim and Cro intact, and signed/traded for a 1B.
@JoeBrady Can’t say I don’t agree (i.e., I agree). Never thought of it the way you put it, essentially Bogaerts replaced Hosmer/Josh Bell. An improvement sure, but there might have been better options. AJ likes SSs everywhere.
The funny part is that Justin Turner would’ve been a better addition. They’d have a better defense with keeping Kim & Cro at SS & 2B, with the additional benefit of watching Dodger fans heads explode.
And who doesn’t appreciate that?
Assuming Turner could stomach going to the dark side, haha. That guy bleeds blue still I think. He’d get nicked Justin Traitor
What 1B that was a FA or available on the trade market would have the impact of Bogaerts?
22 1B who qualify in ABs have been more productive than Cronenworth, take your pick
I hate to defend websoulsurfer who comments from multiple accounts on the same thread and mutes those who call him out for it, but that’s not what he asked. How many of those 22 were free agents last offseason or are realistic trade candidates?
You’re not defending web, you’re defending Preller. But I do get the point. No one more than I wants Jacob to play like an AS. But the team isn’t very good this year and here lies some small part of the problem
Which of them was on the market? Specifically, not generalities.
Also, base it on 2022 stats, not 2023 because neither you nor the Padres have a crystal ball.
Other than Bell, there was 1 FA that is playing some 1B this season that hit better than Cronenworth in 2022. That player only played DH in 2022. He is with the Red Sox now and mostly playing DH. No player that was on the FA market had a higher WAR than Cronenworth last season. So, the answer to that one is there was no one on the FA market.
So now for trades. Who exactly was on the market?
Would he? Turner didn’t play 1B in 2022. Kim is a better 2B than Cronenworth was by far. Bogaerts was a better hitter than Kim or Turner and he played above league average defense.
“What 1B that was a FA or available on the trade market would have the impact of Bogaerts?”
THAT was my question. Try answering it first.
A 1B that can’t hit well for his position. Crone is most valuable at 2nd.
AJ Preller Rockstar GM….
A desperate GM is a dangerous thing.
Even if they restock the farm, Preller will trade them for someone that he can overpay the next off season.
He already restocked the farm system.
> He already restocked the farm
With manure and corpses.
Whatever you need to tell yourself.
Padres went from one top 100 prospect at the middle of last season to 4 today. When MLB and BA do their midseason updates after the draft the Padres will have 5 top 100 prospects.
Their GM and his staff may not be the best at developing talent, but they are unquestionably good at finding it and getting them signed.
He’s not a good GM, imho, but he has a knack for finding amateur talent.
Isn’t finding talent a large part of being a good GM?
Of course that is part of it. I just don’t think it makes up for the rest of it.
Trade all the rentals (guys who can opt out after 2023 count as rentals) and then maybe do some light buying on guys with multiple years of control (something like the 2013 Ian Kennedy trade).
Blake Snell might be best SP in NL right now
And he is a free agent at season’s end.
If selling at deadline what can they fetch for him?
Snell straight up has immense value; compound said value by about 10-20% in a bidding war. He would probably fetch a Top 100 Suspect
And then re-sign Snell lol
Jajajaja has that ever happened?
I’m hoping for a reunion with the Rays by the deadline,
2005 we traded Geoff Blum to CWS and re-signed him that offseason. It happens, albeit infrequently!
@Brew’88 I can name ten times it has happened for every one time you can name when a player has refused to sign with a team specifically BECAUSE they traded him.
@Gwynning The reason it isn’t super common is because most of the time when a player is trades at the deadline his original team either can’t afford to bring him back or simply doesn’t want to.
Yanks traded Chapman to the Cubs in their WS run then signed him back in the off season. Been done.
> Blake Snell might be best SP in NL right now
Wait, what? You mean he’s had 2 good months?
what is your definition of right now? Okay…since you won’t just go with it poop, maybe I should have said recently? or “last two months 0.68 ERA”
That’s my suggestion. Trade anyone you win the trade. Replace them with someone you win the trade. In their minds at least because the Padres lose too many trades for my liking. But sell Snell. Add Hill.
Wait two more weeks. If they cannot go 0.700 during those two weeks, trade Hader, Wacha and Snell. Be open to trading Soto in a deal where you get a MLB-ready controllable starting pitcher (not a top of the rotation) plus a top 100 prospect. Accept the fact that you might not get that ask. Try to get Noelvi or CES from Reds, Jake does not enough for 1B.
The Padres can’t trade Soto unless they get CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Bobby Barrels, James Wood and Jarlin Susana back.
How many teams are successful at spending their way out of a hole?
> How many teams are successful at spending
Mets
The Mets have a worse record than the Padres.
Most playoff teams are top spending teams.
That wasn’t the question. It’s sad you feel the need to thumbs up your own posts
What’s really sad is you think you know baseball. So I give myself multiple likes? I have some special skill that allows me to do that? You really are delusional.
It was the question. That you don’t get that says all we need to know.
Special skill, no. Multiple accounts, yes. It was not the question. I get that you can’t read, you should really spend more time working on that, so I’ll repost the part that your response ignores.
spending their way out of a hole
Poor attempts at insulting me doesn’t change that you’re a joke and repeatedly demonstrate it with each post from your various accounts.
So you are saying you have multiple accounts? That makes alot of sense.
BaseballisLife = Pads Fans = outinleftfield = websoulsurfer = Koamalu = PLTuna
that’s more kin than the Alous
@baseballislife, if the playoffs were held today, five teams in the top ten payrolls would make the playoffs. None of the top four payrolls would make it. Interesting, looking at the bottom ten payrolls, five of them make the playoffs.
At this point last season only 6 of the teams that eventually made the playoffs had a record that would place them in the playoffs. Its July, not October.
You can spend your way out but most teams don’t do it right.
Can bob melvin. A lot of mangers Detroit, Colorado could do a lot with that lineup
11yrs, $280M for a 30yr old will always be a head scratcher
No matter what happens, I am happy with the Padres Front Office and their commitment to winning! I only wished that they were owners of the Chargers!
…but they aren’t winning?
And they were 3 wins away from going to the World Series last year. Are you suggesting they should tear apart the team and the front office because they’ve had a bad first half?
His name tells you the value of his opinion.
There’s still some clearly defined areas of weakness on the roster, namely 1B, C, and DH. Could use more starting pitching depth as well. Yes they are losing because the superstars aren’t performing well but the lack of quality reinforcements from the farm is a huge part of the reason why they’re faltering as well. So few quality role players have been developed due to the mass exodus of farm talent recently. This is only going to compound going into the future.
This roster is pretty old and pretty inflexible as it is, but it’s talented enough to see playing good enough ball the rest of the way to squeak into the wild card spot. It’s pythagorean record is 48-40. That said, they’d have to play close to .650 ball the rest of the year to find the wild card. In interest of the organizations long term viability they should hold a mini-fire sale that lets them earnestly get into the Ohtani sweepstakes next year. Soto’s salary next year won’t be that far off from the AAV Ohtani is gonna’ command.
Trade Soto, Snell, Hader, and Kim for a 1B, a DH, and some young pitching. Could even see some longer term prospects moved too, ala a Dylan Lesko, to try to really retool for next year. Then next year take the money saved and get Ohtani.
That’s what they should do. Tbh what I wanna’ see is them go all in and trade prospects to load up for the rest of the year and next year and then just suck for awhile, because I’m impatient at this point and we might as well go for it lol.
I keep seeing people saying that but Tatis and Soto are having great years. The last month Machado has been on fire.
We need to see where we’re at closer to the deadline first before we do any trading. We can’t trade away Soto and then lose out on getting Ohtani somehow. We have to end up with one or the other (or both, best case scenario). Remember, we still control Soto till the end of 2024 so I would wait to trade him till we find out what we can do with Ohtani. If we don’t get Ohtani, we need to lock up Soto and build the future around Soto and Tatis. C/DH can be Campusano once he gets back, Croney can stay at 1B, we gotta keep Kim till at least Merrill comes up. We need Kim especially if Bogaerts injury gets worse…plus his speed and defense will be needed if we make the playoffs. Next year Snell, Pomeranz and Hader can come off the books and that’s $30+ mill to use towards Ohtani, another top FA or just re-sign Hader and/or Snell for short term contracts.
If he stays healthy, Snell will get a huge contract. I would be surprised if he signs a short term deal.
Pomeranz has been a total bust. That contract coming off the books will allow them to go after a couple of mid-level relievers.
Locking up two 24 year old players for the next decade is smart. Locking up 30 year olds was not so smart.
Ohtani wouldn’t be caught dead in those ugly uniforms .
Why would you trade Soto after giving up ALL THAT to get him????
And you certainly don’t trade Lesko if you aren’t going all in on 2023. He and Snelling are the Padres only pitching prospects with starter upside.
Soto trade is looking ok for SD. They could trade him now and end up doing better than Washington. Not saying they should but they dumped some over rated prospects on Washington.
No they couldn’t do better by trading Soto now lmfao.
You may be right. They probably couldn’t but myself or another gm could.
Nope. Teams aren’t going to increase their offers now that Soto struggled last year and to start this year, is one year closer to FA and the false hope of an extension has largely been squashed.
It’s not that Soto is more valuable it’s just the Washington return was weaker at the time that most people thought and is much weaker now. I’m sure they did the best they could but they took some head scratchers and some really young low level prospects.
I don’t think most teams interested would be interested in extending him. They just want 2 playoff runs of a highly motivated mvp. Don’t think they will trade him. Just that Washington return looks beatable. Probably about a coin flip who would do better in the end.
None of those dudes were head scratchers and the return is not beatable.
For me and sure it is.
Only team it was a head scratcher for was the Padres.
They’ll still make the playoffs. They’ve been playing way below potential, with a terribly banged up bullpen also. They’d beat LA again in a playoff series, assuming SD keeps Snell.
Padres are 7 games back of the last wild card. The 2022 NLDS isn’t going to magically save them lmao
It’s almost…as if…there’s a lot…of baseball…left to play…
There is a lot of baseball left to play, they could end up 10 back
there’s a lot…of baseball…left to play…
======================
Not necessarily. We are at the point where we can start to calculate the winning percentages that every team needs to play to make the playoffs.
If the magic number is 90, then they need to play .658 the remainder of the season. 49 of their remaining 73 are against teams 500 or better. Only 15 v last-place teams, and only teams below .400.
And the immediate future is rough. Their next 8 are one at home v the Mets (Scherzer, then 4 at Philly and three at TO. If they do well and go 4-4, then they will need to play .677 the remainder.
After absolutely crushing Scherzer, the Padres need to have a .6528 win percentage the rest of the way to get to 90 wins. That is winning 47 of the remaining 72 games.
When was the last time they had even one .6528 month, let alone a 2.5-month .6528 period?
The Pads just finished the easiest stretch of their schedule and have yet to have more than a 3 game winning streak all year. The bullpen is thin and injured, and several SPs are having health issues. Even if the offense suddenly wakes up, I don’t see them going 47-25. 40 wins is more reasonable. I agree with Melvin, they sort of are what they are at this point in the season..
This month so far. May 2021. July and September 2020.
“Padres are 7 games back of the last wild card.”
Not only that, but it is going to be a crowded field vying for those Wild Card spots. Assuming the Braves, DBacks, and Reds stay atop their divisions, the Marlins, Phillies, Dodgers, Giants, and Brewers will all be stiff competition. And on top of that, the Mets and Cubs have better records. So 7 games out and five teams in the way of that last spot. It’s a huge uphill battle.
imo, they have three massive trade chips in Snell, Soto, and Hader. The could rebuild the farm in just three trades and then spend again this offseason.
6-year rolling average says 86 wins is what it will take to get the last Wild Card spot.
At this point last season (with teams having played 89-90 games) only 6 of the eventual playoff teams had a record that would put them in the playoffs. The Phillies were coming off 4 straight losses and were 9 GB in the east and 7 GB in the WC race.
& the Phillies made a miraculous comeback that is completely atypical. Following outliers as a model is uhhhhhh….terrible.
I can’t think of more than 1 season in the last 20 where some team didn’t come from 6 or more back in the standings with 72-73 games to go to make the playoffs. Can you?
2022 Phillies, 2021 Yankees, 2019 WS winner, 2017 Rockies, 2016 Mets, 2015 Rangers, Only in 2018 were there none I can think of.
Seems to me that its the norm for at least one team to do it, not an outlier. So, the question is what team will do it this year?
I can think of 2 others in this century, but it definitely seems more like the norm to have at least one team come from way back to make the playoffs.
Exactly.
I get being hopeful and all but got to be real when assessing whether to sell or buy in two weeks. And it’s a tall order for Pads to get into playoffs at this point. They are paying for mind-bogglingly blowing all those close games and for every guy (accept maybe Kim) in the line-up hitting under their career norm.
Getting to 88 or 90 wins doesn’t matter as much as where the competition finishes and there are a lot of teams who will finish season with wins in the mid- to high 80s. Assuming the Braves are a cinch, to sneak into WC the Pads need three of these teams to completely collapse (play below 500): Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Phillies, Giants, Reds, Marlins, Pick the 3 who will collapse?
AND the Pads need to outplay the Mets and Cubs, and hope StL doesn’t get on a roll.
When you are worth $3.5 billion you don’t have to be real. You get to do what you want.
Don’t post using your burners to follow up bro.
Stay the course, we traded away the farm to field this team so there’s no turning back. Please don’t trade away any more prospects, Preller. Padres will turn this around and be a big threat wild card team again like they were last year.
They should put the pedal to the metal this year. They have awesome talent. They need to start working together to get good team culture. Insecurity at the trade deadline undermines team culture. A message from above that winning is not important this year also undermines team culture. A cohesive team that maybe doesn’t win it all this year but learns to work and win as a team is the ingredient needed for future success given this roster and its contracts.
Trade the Mercs for minor league talent at pennies on the dollar, and then let AJ trade the minor league talent for more Mercs. Its worked well so far.
The “ mix of buying and selling” option seems rooted in the belief that the team chemistry is a mess, and they need to blow it up and start over. That option should also include firing Preller as he is the architect of this disaster.
Here this, here it now; Matthew Batten will save this season
What? Speak up. I can’t “here” you.
I meant to spell it here
Stay the course and hope for a turnaround. That said, I’m curious to think what Hader, Snell and Soto would fetch…in your opinion.
Soto won’t fetch anything because they’re not trading him.
Thanks for your input, harambe.
<3
what Hader, Snell and Soto would fetch
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Top-100, top-80, and then a top-20 + top-80, maybe a bit more.
This is where the scouting department earns that money, they really cant afford to miss IF Soto were to be moved. Thanks for your 2 cents, Joe.
I think the chances of Soto moving is about -0-.
IMO, they should go all-in. But if they aren’t .500 at the trade deadline, they can’t be stupid about it, and hope to play .675-.700 for two months. Hader & Snell would get 2-3 fringy top-100 types.
I’m a RS fan and would do the same. I’d prefer to compete, but if we are .500 at the trade deadline, we have to face reality.
The problem with trading Hader and Snell is twofold.
#1, it will signal to fans that the Padres have given up on the season and the fans will stop packing the park every game.
#2, only 1 in 5 top 100 prospects ever become league average players. 1 in 30 become superstars. .Getting 2-3 fringe top 100 prospects will do nothing to fill the hole left by arguably the best starting pitcher and best closer in MLB over the past 2 months.
Financially the Padres are better off keeping them, placing a QO on both, and taking the draft picks if they sign elsewhere.
You have to sell a lot of tix to make up for Hader and Snell’s salary.:…
Not talking about just losing 10k fans per game for 2 months, even though that would certainly pay for 2 months of their salaries. Season ticket renewals happen before the end of the season. Padres lose in 2023 and 2024 financially.
If they could package them with prospects in trades for someone better that would be a different story, but there haven;t been many better.
I don’t see any of these guys being traded for a rental even with a top prospect attached, do you? Valdez, McClanahan, Kershaw, Steele, Eovaldi, Dunning, Cole. Those are all the guys that have been as good or better than Snell this season.
Had breakfast today with a guy who used to work in the Dodgers and Rays organizations. He retired in Coronado and we try to get together once a month.
He proposed something that was a thought-provoking trade. He was not saying it’s possible, just interesting idea.
Padres send Hader, Cronenworth, Martinez, and Lesko or Snelling to the Angels.
The Padres get Estevez, Rendon, Adell, and Ohtani.
Padres move Rendon to DH and 1B to keep him healthy and get the inside track on extending Ohtani.
#1-If the fans are going to stop coming because the Padres signaled defeat, wouldn’t they come to the same conclusion if the Padres are .500 at the trade deadline? And that is notwithstanding the fact that many Aug & Sep tickets are already sold.
#2-One on hand, you are arguing against trading for good prospects. OTOH, you are arguing in favor fairly low draft picks with the QO.
FWIW, I would recommend the Padres go all-in. But that should be tempered by their record. As I said earlier, as a RS fan, I would trade for Giolito or Cease. But if they are .500 at the deadline, I don’t them to pretend that they are still contenders.
I’ll take “Things that didn’t happen” for $500 Alex.
Trading for Ohtani doesn’t give them the inside track to anything. And you certainly don’t trade $57.3m in prospect value (according to BTV, and the Angels would probably want more) to maybe make it easier to sign a guy when you’re going to have to pay him stupid money either way.
In Anaheim the fans didn’t give up on the team because they were bad. The only times we have seen big drops in attendance was when the owners traded away big stars mid-season.
Why would the Padres WANT to take on Rendon? He would be the most expensive DH/IL dweller in history. Not worth it just to get 2 months of Ohtani. I think your friend is a bit into dementia.
Biggest problem would be #2. TANSTAASTP. All prospects are suspects, even top 100 prospects.
Padres sold something like 30k season tickets. They are not going to go into the toilet in attendance just because of trading away Snell and Hader. It will drop for sure, but I doubt they lose nearly 25% of attendance.
None of those pitchers that have been better than Snell will be traded. Snell is probably worth nearly as much to the Padres for the QO pick as they would get for him in trade.
Fans wouldn’t stop coming just because the team was at .500 at the deadline. They are coming not just to see the team win, they are coming to see the stars play. San Diego is not Boston or NY. Different type of sports fan here.
But if you show them you don’t care about winning they disappear. The fire sale in 1993. The Peavy trade in 2009. After packed weekend games early in the season, attendance started going down when Peavy vetoed a trade in early May and then cratered after he was traded at the deadline. I don’t think the Padres drew more than 25-26k the rest of the way including the two series to close out the season against the Dodgers and Giants. There would be announced attendance of 19 or 20k and we would laugh because there were so few people in the stands that you could hear the hecklers in the OF clearly from behind home plate.
Not arguing against getting fringe top 100 prospects. Arguing for getting the slot money that comes with a QO pick and giving Preller and Kemp an opportunity to get creative in signing high school players that have commitments to play college ball on an over slot deal. Hudson Head and Mason Thompson were that type of draft signing by Preller.
First of all, the Padres paid the luxury tax which means they would only get comp picks after the fourth round. The slot values associated with those picks aren’t going to make a difference. Second of all, Hudson Head and Mason Thompson aren’t exactly prospects you want to hang your hat on.
I don’t think that is a trade Preller would make. Giving up too much and taking on way too much money for Rendon.
The money in it
Ohtani – $10 million for rest of 2023 season
Rendon – $12.74 million for 2023 season and $115.8 million in 2024-2026
Estevez – $2.23 million for rest of 2023 season and $6.75 million
Adell – minimum through 2025
Hader – $4.65 million for rest of 2023 season
Cronenworth – $1.39 million for 2023 and $80 million for 2024-2030
Martinez – $3.33 for rest of 2023 and then he probably opts out of 2/16 guarantee for 2024-2025
Money is very lopsided on the Padres side of the balance sheet and Rendon has negative value because of his extreme injury history even if he wasn’t being paid $38 million. Adell has little trade value as well. Estevez has been very good this season, but he doesn’t have a history of being even close to that good.
Because they are already over the 2nd tier of he CBT tax, the money they would be taking on in that trade scenario would cost the Padres over $30 million this season.
I believe the Padres will have to eat some salary to get value in trade, but that is too much to give up and too much money to eat for what amounts to 2 months of Ohtani and 1 more season of Estevez plus a whole lot of dead money.
I was probably overestimating the drop, but I have seen drops from 30-40k (weekday and weekend attendance) to 15-25k in previous seasons in the same ballpark when they traded away Peavy.
leftfield that is both funny and a little mean. Dementia? Come on now. You are right about Rendon.
Yeah but it would be “so Preller”.
What an absolute joke. Preller has been wheeling and dealing for 9 years and now what we need is more wheeling and dealing by Preller?
A half million is huge when it comes to keeping that player from playing college ball instead of going pro.
You don’t want to hang your hat on any prospect. They simply don’t turn into solid players at a high enough level even when you are talking about 1st round picks.
Thompson has been an above league average reliever for the Nats so far. If you can get that and keep your chances of a playoff run alive, you do that 100% of the time.
Forgot which account you were commenting from again eh?
If the Padres trade Snell and Hader they will drop below the 3rd luxury tax threshold which means their first round draft pick doesn’t drop by 10 spots. Based on the slot values from 2023, if the Padres draft 20th or higher, not having their top draft pick drop by 10 spots saves them more bonus pool money than keeping and QOing Snell and Hader would. Not to mention the obvious added bonus of not having their first round pick drop by 10 spots.
Padres have been turning down offers for both already.
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/padres-trade-rumors-bla…
Apparently its not happening.
I don’t realistically expect it to but could still see it if they lose the rest of their games between now and the deadline. Especially if some contender gets desperate and overpays.
It’s time for the Padres to think outside the box.
Weakest spots on the team: 1B/DH and C. Thinking outside the box, I wonder if the answer isn’t staring them in the face a bit.
If they went for a multi-piece swap from mlb roster for mlb roster that would hurt a little bit, I think they could walk away with a more complete roster.
What if they swapped Kim + Carpenter (salary dump) for Verdugo + Turner + Dalbec.
Verdugo has another year of control and replaces Tatis in the OF. Tatis moves to the IF, sliding to 2B. Turner and Dalbec become a 1B/DH combo.
Boston gets a middle infielder with control to pair (eventually) with story. Carpenter just gets waived upon joining the squad.
It won’t fix the issue at catcher, but, I think that’s a tough spot to address during the season.
Earth to Ga Sox… Sox would want pitching, not bats
Earth to badco- have you looked at the Boston middle infield lately? It’s cost them lots of games.
Red Sox aren’t a serious contender in ’23, too many flaws. They need to build for the future at the deadline, and, middle infield is their worst hole when you look at 2024, 2025.
Getting into a wild card series and going home means nothing. Multiple years of good middle infield play does more for sustainable future and better contending teams.
Chang looks good .and story is almost ready…
Does Kim have any control years left after his contract expires? Most sites have him signed thru 2024 with a mutual option in 2025. But I’ve seen 1-2 sites that show him as arbitration-eligible in case Kim declines his side of the option. If this is the case, and we could add him at the cost of Verdugo, I’d do that in a heartbeat.
But i can’t believe that SD would do that. They would be better off trading Bogaerts back to the RS, and eating $100M of his contract.
That’s a good question Joe. I’ve seen mention of 10m if the pads picked up their end of the option in 2025. Like you, I’ve seen mention of arb eligibility as well if before true free agency.
Being a foreign free agent, he COULD have a clause in his contract saying that he becomes a true free agent on the expiration of the contract and not subject to team ckntrol via contract tender in arbitration, we’ve seen that before so it’s not unprecedented. But with how his production has been, it would be a massive upgrade for a Boston club that has had a black hole up the middle.
It’s clear boston isn’t doing anything with dalbec. He’s wasted, and, apparently nobody is meeting Blooms asking price. But he makes a nice sweetener in the deal. Likewise, there’s so many DH types on the club that you can cover the loss of JT. Even if Kim was gone after ’24, if Mayer isn’t ready by 2025 Boston has bigger problems to sort out. Because Boston can run out a lineup as competitive in the OF without Verdugo as with him due to the roster jam and Rafaela knocking on the door, even if it seems a slight overpay to bundle JT with Duggie, the benefits to adding Kim and the stabilizing force he would be, the errors he would end, the extra production you should expect from what’s been a rally-killing hole in the line-up…. it almost seems worth it anyways – if SD was interested.
$10M is a steal, but if it is a mutual option, with no arbitration control, then he’d be gone after 2024. If we only got him for one full season, I wouldn’t blow up the 2023 team for a good 2024.
If we get 2024, plus two arbitration years, then I’d have to give up Verdugo.
Given a choice, how many SD fans would keep Bogaerts over Kim? I think Bogaerts should be better than he is playing, but Kim is a terrific SS.
Hard to say Joe – one the one hand, Bogey has been playing hurt, which lowers his output. Then again, on the other hand, having his money locked in and guaranteed it’d be easy for Bogey to act the diva and lounge on the IL with his issue, but, he’s been gritting it out and playing hurt for months now.
So, the latter part you have to appreciate as a fan, don’t you?
I generally don’t consider injuries because I have no way of knowing how bad the injury is, but I always appreciate good efforts.
IRT his lower output, I am not surprised. I think he will recover, but he had 23 HRs in 2021 and 15 in 2022, with about a 2/1 K/W. 10 HRs halfway thru the season is about right, & the .253 is a little low, but probably won’t exceed maybe .275.
He’s good, but that’s about all. Just a really bad fit for SD, imho.
If the Padres bought out his option, then he would be a FA. If he opts out of his end of the mutual option then the Padres have one more season of arbitration is the way Dennis Lin explained it. Not 100% that Lin is correct about it.
Kim would be an expensive acquisition. He is a top 5 player in MLB by WAR right now and has been steadily improving in 2022 and 2023. Verdugo alone would not be close to enough to get Kim.
Nope. Kim’s contract calls for him to be made a free agent after 2024. However, his team DOES have the right to QO him, assuming he wasn’t traded at midseason 2024.
I hope so because he loves socal and might just sign with the Angels. He is exactly the kind of player I love watching. Constant hustle and improvement, and elite defense wherever he plays.
I took a look through everything I could find on the Athletic and on the San Diego newspapers and found nothing saying he would be a FA after 2024 if he opts out. I did find a Lin article that said he thought he would have one more year of arbitration but was not sure because neither the Padres nor Mark Pieper said anything about it publicly.
Nope. Look at Spotrac. Kim is not arb eligible. He will be a free agent after 2024. Unless they QO him and he accepts it, lol.
I never look at Spotrac because it’s wrong so often. Rather read what writers that talk to team execs has to say.
Am watching the Padres game on MLB.tv right now. Was not aware of Snell’s ERA since Sanchez started catching him, . 0.64 going into tonight’s game. Lower now since Snell threw 6 scoreless innings tonight.
Not sure the Padres will trade either of them. Campusano might replace Nola after the break, but I doubt Sanchez is getting benched.
Snell has given up 3 runs in the last 48 IP with Sanchez behind the plate since May 31st. An 8 game stretch with a 0.56 ERA.
Why reply to yourself from another account?
Snell is the ultimate rite of spring. I have him every year, and play him sparingly until he hits these insane streaks.
Kim for Verdugo and Turner? Hilarious.
You are right. The Padres would not do that. Kim has been worth roughly double what Verdugo has from 2021-2023 and he plays elite defense at a premium position. Turner is a 38 year old DH that is making $15 million.
It’s not particularly close. Kim is not only more valuable than Verdugo, he is more valuable than Bogaerts.
Cronenworth (who is an AS 2Bman) would play 2B if they traded Kim. And Tati is going to win GG in RF why move him to 2B?
Kim won’t be traded unless its a blockbuster trade for a top player. He is top 5 in baseball in WAR today. baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-batting… He had a 5.0 WAR last season. He is beloved by the fans in SD.
Verdugo and scraps is definitely not enough to get Kim. Verdugo doesn’t have the history of performance to anchor that trade, Turner is a 38 year old DH who is guaranteed $13.4 million next season, and Dalbec has negative trade value.
Verdugo, Bello, and Turner is probably not enough, but would at least get the conversation started.
If the Red Sox paid down a significant of the $18 million Turner is owed from the deadline though 2024 what would you say about a Kim and Carpenter for Verdugo, Bello, and Turner trade?
That would be something to consider. Kim and Carpenter combined are owed about what Turner is owed. Verdugo will make more in arbitration than Kim will make in the final season of his contract with the Padres.
Maybe if the Red Sox paid for the rest of the 2023 season for Turner.
I am sure Red Sox fans are going to say, Bello, no way. While he is having a good season, Bello’s peripherals don’t point to him being an Ace or even a #2 down the road. A 3.77 FIP, 20.8% SO% (league average is 22.5%) and 42.5% hard hit ball % (league average is 39.0%), and 69% balls in play % (65% is MLB average) are signs of regression to come. For that reason he is just a replacement for someone at the back end of the Padres rotation.
All fans including Angels fans ike me overrate their own players. Its human nature.
CLEARLY they need more shortstops. I think they have one or two positions not currently occupied by a shortstop.
It’s not like if you can play SS you can’t play any other position defensively besides maybe C. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a manager say I have too many SS on my roster. I’m sure many managers have thought this roster has WAY TOO many statues that can only play 1B,LF, or DH thou.
Well they already have a SS at C in Austin Nola. Never forget that just because you haven’t heard something doesn’t mean it isn’t true.
Trade guys who are set to reach free agency for mlb ready pieces
Hader Snell Lugo Wacha Martinez
Add a pen arm or 2 as a rental
Roll rest of season with newly acquired pieces.
NONE of those guys will be traded. That is 3 starters and 2 late inning relievers. That would be giving up on the season. Seidler said that won;t happen. Period.
ALL of those guys are rentals so the Padres would get no one close to the majors in return for trading them.
Been plenty of instances of rentals netting mlb ready players in return. Happens nearly every deadline.
Someone like Snell could easily fetch a package like Jordan Montgomery, Greg Jones, Colby White from the Rays who are familiar with Snell and will be looking at starting pitching like everyone else.
Mason Montgomery*
Math,
Its possible, but can you name one time a team in the hunt for the playoffs traded one of their best pitchers?
In recent memory off top of my head. Rays. Traded two arms for a rental bat. Joe Ryan a top 5 or 10 prospect in their system and someone else for Nelson Cruz to add a power bat to their lineup.
The Rays in the middle of a pennant race traded TWO starting pitchers for a rental bat? Nope.
The Rays traded two minor league arms for Cruz and another minor league arm. Completely different from what you are saying the Padres should do.
You: name 1 time a team netted mlb ready players for a rental I’ll wait
Me: Nelson Cruz netted the twins two mlb ready pitchers Joe Ryan and another dude.
You; NuT uH U WrOnG RaYs AlSo GoT a MiNoR LeAguEr!
Joe Ryan made his major league debut in 2021 (mlb ready) and Drew Strotman was in AAA pitching well with a 3.39 era prior to the trade, unfortunately for Strotman thing fell apart quickly for him pitching in AAA for the twins. Had he continued pitching like he was for the Rays he also probably would have been called up in 2021.
Wanna try again there buddy? Maybe you’re confused on mlb ready….. doesn’t just mean players currently at the major league level on the roster. Also includes minor leaguers who are close to debuting for the majors posting promising results in AAA and ready to debut this season or next season if the team chooses to not call them up. Or can include gius who have debuted but currently in minors working things out. Mlb ready has a lot of sub categories.
“Its possible, but can you name one time a team in the hunt for the playoffs traded one of their best pitchers?”
THAT is what I said. Reading comprehension is fundamental.
Not your buddy. Try again. This time READ what I said FIRST.
@web I don’t agree with this strategy at all but the Guardians do it almost every year. Bauer and Clevinger for instance. They might try it again with Bieber this year. Then the Brewers did it with Hader last year and might try it with Burnes this year. The excuse for it usually goes something along the lines of “These are move that small market teams have to make” or “They have enough pitching depth to replace those guys in house.”
For me personally if something is working you just don’t mess with it.
Literally did. Literally gave you an example of a team in the hunt trading one of their best pitchers (top 5-10 prospects are usually your best thats how rankings and numbers work you know) for a rental and your retort was the deal also included a minor leaguer along with a rental bat. Move along man.
Go back and read his post. You gave an example of trading minor leaguers for a rental. A trade that didn’t help the Twins get to the playoffs that year.
He asked for an example of a team trading one of their best pitchers while still in the hunt for a playoff spot, which is what you were proposing in saying the Padres should trade Snell.
I was the one that said the Padres would get no one close enough to the majors. I was saying they would not get anyone that would help THIS year. .The Padres are not punting on 2023, so potential trades need to be looked at in that light.
The Padres MIGHT trade Snell or Hader, but only if its going to make the team better this year which means MLB players, not prospects.
OMG. LMFAO. You literally didn’t. Pitchers in the minors can’t be the best pitcher on the MLB team because they are not on the MLB team. That is really not that difficult to understand.
Well. I guess it is for you. Its hysterical that you are trying to argue that point.
name one time a team in the hunt for the playoffs traded one of their best pitchers?
Playoff team: rays
Best pitcher: Joe Ryan
Thanks for playing. Minor league nor major league was ever specified. Just “best pitcher”. A top prospect is one of your best pitchers esp in a deep farm system.
Joe Ryan was NOT on the Rays. He was in the minors when traded. He was NOT one of the Rays best pitchers because he had never pitched for the Rays. How hard can that be to understand?
So you are trying to say that Joe Ryan, who was the Rays 5th ranked pitching prospect at the time of the trade was the best pitcher on the Rays major league team? He was better than Glasnow, Yarbrough, McClanahan, Wacha, Hill, and Patino?
Are you serious? If you are, then there is no reason to even read your comments.
Math&Baseball
name one time a team in the hunt for the playoffs traded one of their best pitchers?
================================
Clevinger
Pads Fans and websoulsurfer are the same guy Math.
2020 was a crazy year. No real spring training. No fans in the stands. Just 60 games. Half of the players spent extended time on the IL not because they have COViD, but just because their teammates did. Half the players in baseball had outlier seasons for good and for bad. I don’t even count is anything other than an extended spring training.
As others have mentioned, the Guardians did that with Mike Clevinger.
Seidler said that won;t happen. Period.
==========================
That’s a mistake to make that commitment. They are likely to still be under .500 at month-end. 5-5 on the 10-game road trip is a good result. 4-2 is the likely result of the following 6-game homestand.
IMO, they are too far committed to back out now, but if they are still below .500 at the trade deadline, the Snell & Hader should be on the block. There are just too many decent++ teams on the SD Aug/Sep schedule to think they will play .690+.
Not my call. Not your call. Its Seidler’s call. You can go listen to his press conference. He didn’t quibble.
One thing we can be relatively sure of. Unless it’s part of a deal for someone better, like Rogers, prospects, and a washed up Lamet for Hader, neither Snell nor Hader will be moved at the deadline.
That was pretty much what happened in the Clevinger trade. The Guardians got 3 major league players and 3 minor league players for their #3 starter.
Difference was Clevinger had 2 years of team control after 2020. It was his first season of arbitration. Snell is a 2 month rental. The return will be maybe one prospect of the caliber the Guardians got from the Padres.
No real reason for the Padres to do that. Keep him and take the QO pick and the money that comes with it and spend that on an over slot signing that they would not be able to afford otherwise.
Because the Padres are luxury tax payers, the QO comp picks for Snell and Hader wouldn’t be until after the fourth round. They can do better in trade. And being able to frame losing them to casual fans as “We didn’t trade them they chose to leave” frankly means nothing to me.
just, You missed the point.
Didn’t see just’s post. He never gets the point and rarely had anything to offer that contributed to the conversation so has been muted
How many top 100 prospects would be acquired if the Padres traded Soto, Snell, and Hader?
Hard to get a legit top 100 for a rental. Soto should bring back 2.
No pitchers from the top 100 for sure without a three deal going down.
It doesn’t matter. Top 100 prospects pan out less than 20% of the time. Look at how the guys the Padres traded to Washington for Soto and Bell are doing now.
The 2 on the Nationals roster today, Gore and Abrams, were both top 10 prospects. Both are below league average for the 2nd season in a row. Wood is looking good, but he is striking out at a pace that would be 200 K in a 550 PA major league season. Unless he takes better control of the strike zone he will not pan out in the majors even though he is now a top 10 prospect also. Bobby Barrels is struggling in the minors for the 2nd season. Susana is struggling in full season ball and having extreme control issues. He is just 19 and throws hard, so there is a good chance that he turns it around, but the soonest he would impact the Nationals would be 2026.
Soto, Snell, and Hader are not replaceable in that manner. Soto is a once in a generation talent. Snell is the best starter in baseball the last 2 months. Hader is one of the top 3 closers in baseball.
Gore has 1.5 fwar in 89.2 innings (same fwar as yu darvish), an era- of 100 and a fip- of 96.
Abrams has been bad, but he’s also 22 with 600 mlb pas.
What does Darvish have to do with anything? Last season he had a 4.4 bWAR and a 3.10 ERA. That is no more germane to a conversation about Gore than what Darvish is doing this season.
Gore is on pace for a 2.1-2.2 WAR season. He is a league average starter. League average is not bad, but it would take him 3 seasons to equal 1 season of Soto’s production.
Gore was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball at one point. Abrams was #6 overall at his peak. Top 100 prospects are suspects that become league average players in the majors less than 20% of the time. Gore looks to be that guy for the Nationals. Even though they got 3 top 10 prospects out of the deal with the Padres for Soto and Bell, they may not have even one more become a league average player. In his age 22 season Soto had a 178 OPS+ and 7.1 WAR.
THAT is the point.
I think the Os would give up some serious prospect capital for Snell and Hader combo
2 playoffs with Soto? 4 top 100 prospects. Snell 1. Hader 1 maybe.
My opinion is the Padres should trade Soto, Hader and Snell for guys who may be able to come up this year or next and help the team.
Why would you trade Soto after giving up ALL THAT to get him that’s the worst argument I’ve ever heard they wouldn’t get back half of what they gave up to get him if they trade him now.
The worst argument is what you just said. You just demonstrated the sunk loss fallacy perfectly.
Even if you think that, Soto still has another year of control and the Padres are going to try and contend in that year.
He is just underlying the fact that all assets involved in the trade have deteriorated. Though I see the point you are trying to make, the Sunk “Cost” fallacy need not apply. The owner isn’t about to drive off a cliff because he’s committed to one direction, and although they’ve invested millions of dollars into Soto that doesn’t make him a negative asset, even with his suboptimal play. No half steppers will win a World Series
You’re probably correct that the Padres won’t trade Soto (because Preller is an awful PBO) but that doesn’t mean it’s the correct course of action, you know that as well as anyone (Cubs and Contreras).
The Padres cannot keep throwing good money on top of bad and hope things will turn around. They already committed big money to Machado, Bogaerts and Tatis on long term deals. Adding a 400 million plus deal for Soto would be flat out ignorant. Snell isn’t bringing back much but Hader should net another top tier guy.
At some point, the Padres have to evaluate. The Snakes are really good, the Dodgers never seem to go away, the Giants are this pesky team that pops up for a year and goes away but the reality is, what isn’t working this year isn’t going to magically work next year.
Soto isn’t bringing back what he brought back before, obviously, he had an extra year of control and they got Josh Bell as well. He will still, however, bring back two top 100 prospects, 1 that’s near ML ready as well as one or two other players.
I would trade everyone that other teams really want and replace them and get what else needed. For example I am buying any relievers that make sense. See a bargain pick it up. And if someone really wants Hader he is gone. Never hold onto rentals unless the market for them isn’t there or you are a pretty certain playoff team. 8 games out or whatever is a perfect spot to mix things up.
They have iffy development that has lead to some weak trades. But much worse is the awful contracts they handed out. But fans shown up and there is still 2 and a half months left. Don’t give up unless it gets to double digits.
Put all your chips into the pot San Diego. You can’t go all in like you have, and then retract just because the stakes are down. It’s time to Double Down. All In. Whatever it is at the World Series of Poker. If you’re adding guys, make sure you have them for next season as well, for another run in case this one doesn’t work out.
They sold out their season tickets and Petco is full for every home game. They’re going to be alright in the 2nd half.
…and in the third half, they may even break .500!
The Padres should add at the trade deadline. They are already all in with their long term contracts. Besides, there is no salary cap in MLB. There is nothing to prevent them from continuing to spend. and no need to cut payroll.
I would move Cronenworth as the super utility guy.and play Kim at 2B everyday The Cubs are always selling. I would call on Gomez & Bellinger. Install Bellinger at CF. Gomez & Sanchez can split time b/w Catcher and DH position. The Cubs are sure to want a couple 18 yr old scratch off lottery tickets.
The TV contract going Kaput might be a reason to not spend or to even cut payroll.
Padres have sold 235k single team packages on MLB.tv at 19.99 per month. They keep 80% of that according to MLB. Roughly $3.7 million per month.
They are available on every outlet they were available when DSG/Sinclair owned the rights and they are available to millions more homes on broadcast TV and Fubo than they were before. You don’t seriously think they are doing that for free do you?
The Padres may do better than they did when they were only on Bally’s.
Can’t trade Soto unless they get back CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Bobby Barrels, James Wood and Jarlin Susana.
I wouldn’t want most those guys back. They can do better.
Gore and Wood are the big ones but the other 3 still have value.
So far it’s been lazy General managing. Just sign all the top guys and spend the owner’s money. Who’s an all-star? We want you. Come on over. It’s time to ditch this way of doing things and go back to getting to work.
When a guy signs a big money deal, see Mark Teixeira Alex Pujols Adrian Gonzalez they go from being a .330 hitter to a .250 hitter. Something mental happens when a gazillion dollars is secured.
How about searching out young guys who are hungry like a 24-year-old Mark Teixeira or a 30-year-old Albert Pujols or a 24-year-old Adrian gonzalez? Hungry guys that perform BEFORE they get the big payday and they’re done. Stop being lazy and get to work.
Sell all these big contracts now and start building a real baseball team not an all star team with guys laughing and seven games under .500 and out of playoff contention. Makes me sick.
Really lazy. Like didn’t even take 10 seconds to look up Xanders home away splits.
What does Bogaerts splits have to do with anything that Gary said?
“So far it’s been lazy General managing.”
I think it was a pretty awful signing, but assuming that signing Bogaerts is the same as lazy GM’ing is a huge stretch.
I think they can get 3 top 100 prospects on Snell and Soto alone. A team like the Orioles and Rangers have multiple prospects and haven’t been to the playoffs in years might be willing to take a plunge
Once again. They can’t trade Soto unless they get CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Bobby Barrels, James Wood and Jarlin Susana back.
Saying this a bunch of times doesn’t make it true. They certainly CAN, and GM’s have done buy and flip tons of times before. They might not get back the same value haul they gave up but I bet you’d be surprised how close the return could be in value. Straight surplus value (via baseballtradevalues) said that the Padres underpaid for Soto pretty heavily (30M or so), so it’s not impossible to imagine another team ponying up a huge return to get him for half a season less, half a season they likely have already won a bunch on.
I think people would be surprised by what Soto, Snell and Hader would fetch at the deadline. That’s a top SP, quite possibly -the- top reliever and an MVP-level outfielder.
My guess would be that Snell certainly nets a top-100 near-ready prospect and probably a lotto ticket with it.
Hader and a low level prospect gets a top-100 prospect with the potential like the Chapman to the Yanks deal. He’s having an even better season than Chapman was having.
Soto still has 90 mil surplus value on baseballtradevalues. You could end up with a premium prospect and two other top-100 prospects along with it, and perhaps a bit more.
Spend some prospects and the money saved to re-tool the roster with some young guys and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle. Team needs some young, hungry players.
You wanted the Padres to buy JT Realmuto back in 2018 so that they could flip him at the deadline. Boy am I glad you’re not the GM. GM’s have done buy and flip before but only on players who had untapped trade value to build which Juan Soto is not part of that consortium. The Padres’ trade for Drew Pomeranz and signing of Fernando Rodney after 2015 would qualify.
You are right about one thing though. Saying it a bunch of times doesn’t make it true. It already was true before I said it.
Ah yes, cuz all MLB GMs just use baseballtradevalues for their player valuation.
Susana looks very good
Susana has a 3.81 ERA and is walking nearly 7 per 9 IP in his first try at full season ball. The jump from rookie ball to full season ball is huge and so far he is struggling.
Those numbers don’t mean as much when u consider he’s developing a cutter (poor success initially). His go to stuff has been good.
Susana doesn’t seem to be throwing a cutter at all. At least not in his last 3 games. I don’t know what he was throwing early in the season. Pretty much everything I have read about him before and after the trade is that he is destined to be a reliever.
I haven’t been following him recently, maybe he dropped the cutter to get back on track. Why would they develop him as a RP when his success has been as a SP? Regardless, too soon to predict with any accuracy his ML career. No winner can be declared in the Soto trade with so many young players developing in Washington, but the Pads traded for him not just for 2.4 years of service, if they lose him to FA then that tells me they lose.
The number of pitchers that started out as starters in the minors and later became relievers in the majors is pretty close to 100%. Very few that eventually make the majors started out as a reliever. The Ben Joyce’s of the world are few and far between and most of them throw 100 plus.
Sure, most guys that end up as MLB RPs were SPs earlier in careers. And all SPs in MLB were also developed as SPs. I responded to comment that Susana is “destined to be a RP”.
Sure he might end up as RP, but right now the Nats have every intension of developing him as a SP and have not set his destiny as a RP..
Susana is having issues going a 2nd time through the lineup right now. Its when he runs into trouble. That is because he only has one effective pitch, his slider. He is having issues with command and hit-ability on his FB. His velocity after the 3rd inning drops off by nearly 2 MPH. He still has never pitched beyond the 4th inning.
That type of pitcher is who becomes a reliever in the major leagues. BA, BP, Kiley McDaniel and Law have all mentioned it.
“…because of his round-down fastball playability and the history of young pitchers who are built like this, a relief role akin to Brusdar Graterol is more likely.”
MLB said he had the upside of Emmanuel Clase.
I can go on, but you get the point. People that are paid to talk about prospects feel that he will end up being a reliever.
Holy bleep. If the Nationals got that caliber of reliever out of Susana I would think they would be ecstatic.
Maybe he’ll be a RP, didn’t say he wouldn’t. Lesko and Snellilng might as well
But they are developing Suzana now as a SP, And he looks really talented, either way, Good pick up by the Nats, most folks are focused on the other guys in that trade so call him a bit of a sleeper.
Pads Fans, outinleftfield and BaseballisLife are all the same guy.
Susana doesn’t look very good. He looks good for a 19-year-old. His FB is what he is having issues controlling. 100+ mph and he can’t get it over the plate right now.
In his last game against the Shorebirds he struck out 5 and walked 4 in 4.1 IP and didn’t throw a cutter. Out of 74 pitches, 61 were FB and he only got 38 near the plate.
Almost all the projections for him are as a late inning reliever. With his velocity, I can see him being a good one. He will just not be a starting pitcher.
Well if websoulsurfer and his 5 different accounts say Susana won’t be a starting pitcher you know it’s true!
Push all their chips to the center of the table. Snell, Wacha, Lugo. Martinez, and Hader could all be gone at seasons end.
Not sure it means anything, but Wacha was talking about how he was looking forward to pitching in SD next season. Sounds to me like he is planning to exercise his player option when the Padres don’t exercise their $16 million team option.
That’s not going to happen. Unless of course he gets injured or sucks down the stretch.
Wacha IS injured. He is on the 15-day IL right now.
4.56/4.78/91 That was Wacha’s ERA/FIP/ERA+ in just 77 starts from 2019-2022. $26 million guaranteed over 4 years was MORE than most thought he was worth in the offseason. Certainly more than this site projected. The commenters on this site blasted the Padres for signing him. Said he might make it as a 6th starter. There were bonuses that come into play at 20 starts because no one thought he would stay healthy to get that many starts.
So with him injured now and likely to miss a month, opting into a guaranteed 3/$18.5 may be a good deal in his mind.
Not with a 2.84 ERA, on pace for 3.4 WAR, his 2022 being mostly the same and with quality starting pitching being in such high demand nowadays.
Wacha is on the IL. He won’t be back until August. He is NOT on pace for 3.4 WAR because he won’t be playing the rest of this month and possibly more.
4.56/4.78/91. Teams look at more than 3 months of performance when deciding on contracts and you can be sure that agents know that.
There is a reason that there are bonuses for starts in his contract. Other teams didn’t believe he could stay off the IL and pitch enough to make his contract worth the money at the 4/26 the Padres guaranteed him. Him being on the IL now only reinforces that.
Losing Wacha till August doesn’t bode well for SD surpassing 500 by trade deadline
Wacha has as good a chance of opting into a $6.2m AAV as you or I do of opting out of it.
Not sure about you, Brew and Web, but I would opt out. Too little money for too much work. I will keep doing what I am doing.
Can you spare $100k? I promise I will put it to good use.
Got my first reading glasses today, so I guess I’m optically in.
Don’t they still owe Eric Hosmer like 45mil ? Or some other outrageous figure.
$30.6m*
Still alot to pay some who doesn’t play for you. And hasn’t played since the cubs cut him.
think of it as a pension plan
After this season, $24.5 million.
That is still a ton of money for someone that is not playing for your team. Angels do that stuff a lot, too. Bad signings that they have to eat.
Padres and Mets could surge in the 2nd half. As bad as they’ve been, that Wild Card is within reach.
Look at the Phillies last season.
The difference is, the Phillies started their surge in June. It wasn’t really a brief stretch in the 2nd half. They went on a run immediately after firing Girardi and played above .500 ball for the rest of the year. It’s much later for the Mets and Pads, but I still think one of them could make it.
If the Mets are still it, that worse for the Padres. That’s just more teams shooting for 90 wins.
Double down on spending and bring in some more expensive players.
One bad contract for another Stanton for Machado
Machado is a good 3B and has been on fire the last month. Stanton has been injured more than half the season, has a OPS+ 20% worse than Machado, and is a DH.
Yeah. This one isn’t even close. Yankees are stuck with Stanton and really that contract defines this Yankee era.
Someone asked if it would be worth it for the Yankees to waive Stanton to free up a roster spot. Probably not yet, but that time is coming quick.
According to BTV Machado’s contract is the worst in MLB
He’s still. a very productive player. Overpaid? Sure, but he’s very good.
Yankees pay down half Stanton’s contract and add Oswaldo Cabrera and Mayea for Kim. Who says no?
Padres.
Value-for-value the Padres hang up first. Additionally, Stanton has a full NTC which he has said he’s not going to waive and the Padres probably won’t trade Kim at all until after the Korea series next March.
I’m pretty sure the padres will be buyers this deadline. The owner isn’t going to stop buying.
I think they will target Duvall/Bellinger and a players like Justin turner.
That would greatly fix the dh and cf production. If Suarez who should be back soon can be healthy that greatly helps he pen.
Of course if they get to the deadline still struggling they could pivot and trade snell, wacha and hader. Don’t think they will consider trading Soto or Kim.
Be amusing if the red sox sold turner or duvall to the padres considering right now the red sox are a much better team record wise
The RS are better right now, but it might also be the time to make Duran the full-time CF (I am not a fan of Duran, but he is playing well). Ref is a pretty good RH #4, and Ki-Ki could play some CF as well. I hate to change anything right now, but Duvall could be redundant.
Offer to pick up 100% of his salary to see what SD does. Morejon has been up 5 years and injured all 5 years. He might still have some upside.
Are they in it? That’s what the next two weeks will resolve. If by the last week of July you are within 5 games of a wild card, I think you add on for the final push. If they find themselves where they are now 7 or more back you have to shop Snell. You bring Snell into your office and tell him we are out the race, we are going to try to get prospects back for you but we fully intend on offering you a contract at the end of the year to come back. I’d trade Hader too if I could get a good return, relievers are relatively easy to replace. I’d keep the nucleus though, this team vastly underperformed I don’t think it could do worse if it tried same with the Mets.
Not sure the league would allow the kind of sweetheart deal you describe where the team and player collude…..player allowing a trade to bring in prospects on the basis of the team basically negotiating a return contract prior to the trade……..don’t think that’s legal in baseball whether the league office would know or not…….anyone else got a take on this?
This is perfectly legal and really how it is done. Because here’s the thing, the player is not promising to resign and not give the other teams a chance. All the GM is saying is that there will be an offer while he is still his player. So go ahead, try to prove collusion.
Nothing in the rules against it. Its not often that players that are traded away come back to the team, but it has happened. I don’t think a player like Snell would take himself off the FA market. As well as he has pitched the last 2 months he is going to get a huge contract. It behooves him to have multiple bidders in the running.
It’s not collusion (word you were actually looking for was tampering) unless they have a formal agreement that the player will come back. If they just tell him “We have every intention of bidding for you this offseason” and make sure that they are on the same page about there being no hard feelings from a trade ain’t nothing wrong with that. Reason it isn’t super common is because usually the player’s original team isn’t interested in bringing him back. Or maybe they try to but someone else offers him way more money.
Soto to the Yanks!
Some things to keep in mind.
The Padres are already ALL IN. Every decision that the Padres make now and this offseason will be with “Win Now” in mind. If the Padres think there is any chance of making the playoffs, they will not be trading their closer or a member of their already thin starting rotation.
Preller has shown he is both willing and able to trade away any prospects on his farm or eating big contracts to bring back something of value. Think along those lines as long as the Padres are within striking distance of a WC spot at the deadline. Padres play 16 games between now and the deadline and they have to win 10 to stay in the hunt.
If they do that, don’t be surprised to see Preller shopping at the top of the trade market. Maybe even guys you didn’t think were available.
This site already did an article on who might be available in trade, so that brings up the next logical question, what do the Padres need? What will Preller be looking to trade FOR? If history is any indication, Preller will not be looking to trade for rentals. The guys he goes after have at least one more season of team control.
Biggest need? Secondary? Trinary?
– A bat first corner OF that allows Tatis to move to CF. (Santander? Adell? Brown? Yelich?)
– A solid late inning reliever. A setup man. (Barlow? Middleton? Lange?)
– A backup catcher if they are not convinced Campusano will be back soon. (Gomes?)
– A DH. (I think they rotate Bogaerts and others through here)
– A starting pitcher.
Who do they have to move FOR those players?
Believe it or not, Grisham. Because of his exceptional defense, he is playing at an above league average pace. Roughned Odor. Ryan Weathers. Some team will take a flyer on him based on lineage. On the 40 man there is Eguy Rosario. Alfonso Rivas, and Jose Azocar. Any prospect not named Merrill or Salas.
Obviously, it’s going to take multiple pieces to get anyone of value. So, who do you think they go after and what will it take to get them?
But if they are 5-10 games below 500 at deadline then they’re not all-in in 2023, but will be in 2024. And many of the discussions in this article and comments are looking at that as realistic outcome
It doesn’t matter if they are 20 games back at the deadline, they are still already all in.
Seidler makes the decision and he said they aren’t being moved. There has been nothing to discuss since that press conference. He made himself clear.
“It doesn’t matter if they are 20 games back at the deadline, they are still already all in.”
I disagree. It’s possible to retool and salvage some expiring and or bad deals without completely rebuilding. The Mets and Padres will definitely look to sell if they’re close to 10 games under .500 before the deadline.
To your point, there definitely won’t be a Padres fire sale, as they hope to contend the rest of the season and of course 2024, but if they falter after the All Star break and other teams in the west surge, the Padres will definitely make some seller type moves.
I still think the Padres squeak into the playoffs. None of the Wild Card teams are blowing anyone away at the moment. Teams like the Marlins, Giants, Phillies and Brewers could easily stumble at times. The rest of July will be telling.
If they are 20 games below 500 at trade deadline, they won’t be all-in for 2023 if they can start preparing for 2024 reboot. I think you’ve misinterpreted Peter. He’s an optimist, but he’s not a fool
They still are all in. Look at the contracts already on the books. It doesn’t matter what their record is.
It does matter if your name is Snell, Hader and Lugo, who won’t likely be on the team in September if they go 8-8 in next 16 games.
Might want to listen to what Preller said today.
Great comment. To me Santander makes great sense for the Padres. What do you think the O’s would need in return?
Preller has traded for several long hair pitchers so Barlow? Lol
“Great comment” says one Pads Fans burner to the other Pads Fans burner.
I think the most important commodity the Padres have is money. Take on a bad contract to get a good player at the positions of need so that they don’t have to spend much if any prospect capital.
I think that with so many teams still trying to get to the playoffs, to get top shelf players in trade it will take both prospects and taking on bad contracts.
True. I just dont see that many trades out there that make the Padres better both this season and next, and after hearing Seidler and Preller talk about it, I don’t see them doing anything that isn’t focused on doing both.
Before any moves are made you have to answer 2 questions: Are you going to re-sign Snell or Hader? Can the Padres catch up with the division and/ or a Wild Card? If we’re going all-in, which I think we should, we need a big bat. A thumper. Lock up Snell. Hader, Lugo, Wacha and others in the bullpen with prospects should get something of value. Merrill, Lesko, Salas stay.
And Snelling
Preller has shown that practically no prospect is immune to being traded if the player coming to SD is high enough up the chain. I don’t think anyone other than Merrill and Salas is off the table.
Got to see Salas play for the Storm several times already this season. He is the best catching prospect I have seen play in California in decades.
He is 17 and is 100% the team general. In the Cal league, usually team ERA’s go up as it gets hotter. Since Salas was called up from rookie ball, the Storm’s ERA has went down a little overall and its a point lower in the 13 games he has caught. He is not only helping the pitchers when he is behind the plate, he is helping them when he is the DH and he has DH’d in 4 more games than he has caught.
He is astonishingly good. If the Padres traded him I would be beyond angry. Can’t even express in words how angry I would be. Players like him come along once a generation.
Snelling has more upside than Merrill, so we disagree I guess
From reading all the prospect lists, you seem to be the only one that thinks so.
Yes it’s a personal observation, But the prospect lists don’t rank upside, and we’ve seen they are highly subjective and very general anyway. Time will tell..That said I do think Merrill will be a fine MLBer (not for the Padres)
Prospect lists take into account ceiling AND floor. As a 19 year-old pitcher Snelling has basically no floor so it makes sense if he is ranked below Merrill.
I was under the impression that Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, and Soto were the big bats.
Maybe the Padres go after good hitting RF so the can move Tatis to CF and Grisham to 4th OF status?
Friars can be players for a position player at ANY position. Just rotate them through the DH. And to think, I never wanted the DH in the NL. LOL!
I think the Padres learned their lesson with Cruz and Carpenter at DH. Anyone they bring in will have positional flexibility and not be a DH only player.
I agree. But I think they can get a player at ANY position and rotate them through the DH. Infield, outfield, catcher, wherever and still keep what they have intact. Need a big bat…
What they “should” do is not what Preller will do. They already did what they shouldn’t have done so I expect them to double down and make more idiotic moves to fix the previous idiotic moves.
Options/Choices for Padres Trade Deadline?!
1) Fire AJ Preller
2) Don’t let AJ Preller make any unsupervised trades
3) Hire a Baseball Ops guy to help make Trades for the Padres.(Preller is great at finding talent and filling up farm system)
4) Take offers on any one on the roster, but be very careful who you deal.
6) Move Soto if and only if the deal returns at least 4 highly rated young players/prospects who can help the Padres “jumpstart their team” and compete/win right now:
1) young, speedy CF who can hit and defend
2) young starter who has at least mid rotation potential who can step in right now as a #5 Starter..
3) young middle infielder who has speed, can hi, has power, and can defend (may open up a separate trade of Padres infield surplus)
4) young corner OF or young catcher who can hit and defend
High prices, but a team that is one player away from the next level (playoffs/WS) might “go for it”: @ the trade deadline.
Otherwise, just keep Soto. and, maybe trade Kim or Crone worth
for upgrades..
Soto is hitting now, but if Padres call fill 3-4 holes with one deal
(Soto can’t play 3-4 positions as tX
No trading Soto unless it’s for CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Bobby Barrels, James Wood and Jarlin Susana. Or for something outrageous like Rodriguez from the Mariners.
Padres are being seen by more fans on TV now than when Ballys was their station.
For those curious about how MLB taking over Padres broadcasts:
Padres have reached 578,000 unique people since MLB took over production and distro. +14% over last yr’s same time period (507,000 unique people) and +9.5% (528,000) over the month period in ’23 before MLB took over
twitter.com/BizballMaury/status/167930236081079910…