The Mariners are one of many teams in an awkward spot right now. After breaking their postseason drought last year, they had hoped for another competitive season in 2023, but it hasn’t quite lived up to expectations so far. They have played 100 games and are currently 50-50, putting them fourth in the American League West, 8.5 games back of the Rangers while also trailing the Astros and Angels. They are 5.5 games back of the Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels in between.
That doesn’t necessarily mean all hope is lost, as those are surmountable obstacles (particularly the Wild Card chase). But their chances aren’t great at the moment, with the playoff odds at FanGraphs currently giving them an 11.6% chance of getting in while Baseball Prospectus has them at just 8.2%.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto discussed the club’s tough position last week, admitting that the Mariners have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end” and might have to decide whether it is “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.” He went on to say they probably wouldn’t make any big splash like last year’s Luis Castillo acquisition and that selling is on the table because they always have “one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller.”
There won’t be any need for the M’s to completely tear their roster down to the studs. The 2024 team will still feature a strong pitching staff, as their collective 3.80 earned run average is one of the five best in the majors and none of their hurlers are slated to reach free agency this winter. On the position player side, they will still be able to count on a core that consists of Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, Cal Raleigh, Ty France and J.P. Crawford. They would have some offseason work to do, but there are enough ingredients there for them to see a path towards better results next year.
But as Dipoto mentioned, they may need to think about doing some selling, even if it’s not a total rebuild. The club has some impending free agents, but most of them won’t have much appeal. AJ Pollock is hitting just .173/.225/.323 and just landed on the injured list, while Kolten Wong’s offense is even worse at .162/.244/.229. Tom Murphy is hitting well this year but in a part-time backup role, and midseason trades of catchers can be tricky given the challenges of learning a new pitching staff.
They have one other impending free agent in Teoscar Hernández, which presents a difficult case for the club. He was just acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason, with the M’s sending Erik Swanson and Adam Macko to Toronto for Hernández’s final arbitration season. His 2023 performance isn’t quite as rough as Pollock’s or Wong’s, but it’s been a disappointment nonetheless. Through the end of May, he was hitting .230/.268/.396 for a wRC+ of 85. He took off in June, slashing .303/.376/.573 for a 162 wRC+, but he’s crashed back to earth in July with a line of .203/.259/.316.
Overall, Hernández has a season-long batting line of .242/.293/.421. That amounts to a wRC+ of 99, indicating he’s been just a hair below league average. But the Mariners were surely hoping for something better than just average, especially because Hernández slashed .283/.333/.519 with the Jays from 2020 to 2022 for a 132 wRC+.
Defensive metrics have never like Hernández much, but are being kinder in 2023. He has -18 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but +7 this year. Outs Above Average has him at +2 in 2023 but -22 overall. His Ultimate Zone Rating is -18.3 for his career but 3.7 this year. Defensive metrics tend to be fickle from year to year, so it’s more likely this is a blip than that he’s suddenly turned himself into an above-average defender in his age-30 season. But he definitely has a bit of speed, having swiped 40 bags in his career and five this year.
If Hernández were playing up to his previous form, he would be a lock to both receive and reject a qualifying offer. In that case, the Mariners could have simply held onto him and taken their shot at contention, at least knowing that they could recoup a draft pick if he were to sign somewhere else. Now it’s less clear, since he’s performing closer to an average major leaguer. He might be tempted to take a QO and try to re-enter free agency after a stronger platform in 2024.
Spending roughly $20MM, which is where the QO will likely end up, on a player like Hernández wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster for the Mariners. Pollock and Wong departing will take $17MM off the books, and Hernández himself is making $14MM this year. But they will also see Castillo’s salary jump from $10MM this year (plus a $7MM signing bonus) to $22.75MM next year. Rodríguez will see his salary climb from $4MM to $10MM. Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Dylan Moore and Andrés Muñoz will also get raises in their contracts, and arbitration raises will be due to players like France and Paul Sewald.
Like just about every club, the Mariners will be hoping to keep their options open for Shohei Ohtani this winter, not to mention all the other potential free agents. Perhaps the prospect of putting close to $20MM in front of Hernández on day one of the offseason isn’t as attractive as it once seemed a few months ago.
But despite his middling season, he might still have significant trade appeal. The lists of upcoming free agents and potential trade candidates are both heavy on pitching, with few impact bats thought to be available. Perhaps some clubs around the league believe in Hernández enough to bet on a bounceback, especially with the dearth of other available options. His walk rate and hard hit rate are both down this year, but his rate of fly balls turning into home runs is also a big drop, sitting at 16.2% this year compared to 23.2% in the previous three seasons. Maybe moving away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park would help him get back on track.
Taking all those factors into consideration, it’s likely a tricky decision for Dipoto and his team. If they decide that 2023 isn’t their year, then trading him is probably the best thing to do since he’s an impending free agent and can’t help you next year. If he were to accept a qualifying offer, they’d essentially be back to square one but with a larger financial commitment for 2024. If there’s a compelling offer on the table now, perhaps it’s better to just take that and start focusing on next year’s club.
On the other hand, they are already working with an uninspiring offense. The Mariners’ collective batting line of .231/.311/.391 amounts to a wRC+ of 100, or exactly average. The corner outfield spots are a particular issue, given the struggles of both Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. The latter of those two cooled off after a hot start and recently put himself out of action for the next four to six weeks by kicking a water cooler and breaking a bone in his foot.
Subtracting Hernández from the corner outfield mix would only make matters worse, and the Mariners would then be looking to replace him in right field while facing the same weak market as every other club in the league. Although the club made the postseason last year, that’s still just one playoff appearance since 2001. If they were to hold Hernández and he gets hot for the final months of the season, he could help them compete and perhaps even get enough juice to reject a qualifying offer and net the club an extra draft pick.
Trading Hernández also comes with the risk of intangible results, in a negative way. Teams have often tried to balance buying and selling and been surprised by the effect it had on the clubhouse. The Brewers trading Josh Hader last year was one such example, but the same thing happened to the Mariners the year before. They traded closer Kendall Graveman and reliever Rafael Montero to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith. They later backfilled their closer spot by acquiring Diego Castillo, hoping that the Castillo/Toro combination would be better than Graveman himself. But it didn’t work out and the club missed the playoffs as the Graveman trade had a negative impact on the club’s spirits, something Dipoto addressed in the link above.
Perhaps trading Hernández would hurt the club both on the field and in the dugout. The Mariners likely wouldn’t care so much about that if they were well out of contention and firmly in the seller camp. But if they are trying to strike a balance between buying and selling, the downside of the trade is higher than the upside, though that would surely depend on the offers. The Hader trade certainly hurt the Brewers last year but they were later able to trade one of the pieces in that deal, Esteury Ruiz, for catcher William Contreras. He’s having an excellent season and seems to be a long-term piece for Milwaukee, who are in first place in the National League Central.
We’ll open this one up for debate among MLBTR readers. Should the Mariners risk punting their season by sending Hernández elsewhere and taking whatever pieces they can get to help them in future seasons? Or, should they hold and hope for a late surge to get back in the race and cement his status as a QO recipient? Have your say in the poll below!
(Link to poll for app users)
Trade him back to the Jays for Macko
Trade Julio, guy is so overrated.
Those eyes aren’t overrated come on now. And he can bake too!!
Only benefit to trading Hernandez would be so the owners could save some money in 2023. He’s playing ok but makes a lot and is a soon to he free agent. And the Mariners are potential contenders. I don’t see why they would trade him. They also don’t really have anyone to step in ans replace him.
He will never be worth more than he is presently…cash in and get a prospect…or Conner Joe type guy.
Only benefit to trading Hernandez would be so the owners could save some money in 2023.
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I voted to keep him, but some BB fans think that receiving prospect(s) in a trade also qualifies as a benefit. Saving money is obviously not the only benefit.
When a guy is having a 2 win season and making 13 million I believe it is he’s not bringing back much in return if anything at all. It’s basically a salary dump at this point.
Calling a 22 overrated… little uneducated out of you.
So opinions not your own are “uneducated”, gotcha. I don’t say “overrated” but I would say “disappointing”, because he just isn’t playing the same as last year.
The term “overrated” is relative.
But anyone not extremely disappointed in Julio’s .709 OPS is simply not paying attention, imho.
Uneducated as in his WAR is fine. Just not what YOU want I guess.
Well I mean did you all see his username?
People that call dissenting opinions “uneducated” are not people you want to converse with or debate, since they pretty much think their views come from the heavens. It must be so tough on you, always being the only one who’s opinion is “educated”, right? Good luck my “friend”.
Young players can be overrated. In fact it’s quite common
Jordan Walker is overrated. That’s a guy from my team does that make you feel better?
Just not what YOU want I guess.
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Meaning that you are okay with his WAR, right? He projects to a 3.57 after having a 6.2 as a rookie. That’s a pretty fair regression. But if you are okay with it, so am I.
Sorry he is having a sophomore slump for you. Better than a 0
No they think there ideas come from the heavens because Elon Musk is a overpaid little ****** who didn’t build his EV right? How hard would it be to fasten solar panels? Wind technology? Reverse engineering alternators on each wheel? Use 3 battery cells and when they are fully charged use the DC to power the vehicle instead of batteries?
Idk maybe I’m UNEDUCATED right? Tell me about? Nothing matters other than your high-school grades and your ability in college though right? Nah I’m not playing that mouse trap? Ocean Gate? Let’s all get assassinated by the illuminati? Come on Elon? Look at your rockets? You f-ing kidding me bro?
The hell drug are you on? Step off the gas man. You need help and mlb rumors isn’t your doctor.
Yes, but I also want it to be as much of a “lateral” move for the stretch run this year as possible.
That defensive gaffe at the end of the game last night, and just a seeming lack of instincts and dare I say urgency out there most of the year; gives a lot of us a sour taste in our mouth about him, I would think.
I think he’s a much better DH/part time outfielder than the other way around.
SODOMOJO, I couldn’t even finish watching the 10th inning last night.
I just turned it off after realizing who was coming to bat next.
No nice surprise waiting for me this morning, either. even though I was hoping for one.
As a Jays fan who watched Teoscar for a long time (and still roots for him – even as a Mariner!), I 100% agree with you. His outfield work is maddeningly inconsistent. He’ll be fine out there for stretches, but for whatever reason he starts getting tentative out there and making mistakes. And when he makes mistakes he tends to make them in bunches.. But he’s still a dangerous bat, especially in clutch situations – I think he’d be absolutely perfect in a Nelson Cruz-type role…I’d be more than happy to have “Mr. Seeds” back in Toronto as our DH down the stretch…
Is Teoscar even of interest to anyone?
I doubt it, after a career winding up in mediocrity.
The article tries to gloss over this, but those other teams are not going to be fooled, even if we fans are.
Yeah I don’t see how he’d have a ton of trade value. I’d rather keep him and hope for a late surge in performance than take whatever paltry return he might net in a trade.
Right? Like would he fetch? A fringe prospect or low ranked relief prospect. Is it even worth it? I can’t see it. The only reason I can see it is if they are giving up 100% and want a look at some minor leaguer instead. If thats the case he’s not the only one they might want to trade.
That’s why I said no. They aren’t out of it and I think the upside of him heating up is better than the trade return.
Good stuff guys, and I agree that if it’s just gonna be a dump for a “mid” level prospect or less? What’s the point? He’ll end up with 20-25 HRs like he does every year and we’re not in a position to be turning that production down.
Teams will be hoping for his June results and hoping he will get on a Duvall like hot streak.
If they eat the rest of his contract they might be able to get someones #15-20 ranked prospect. I dont think thats worth it as long as they have a chance at the wild card which its slim, but still there.
Mariners should trade everyone. This team has taken a massive step backwards.
It’s over, tear it down! Dipoto is a fool & a clown, see ya in another 20. Ahahaha!
Not really “massive.” The Mariners around a .500 ballclub and it’s not like we were world beaters last season. After a lot of luck breaking the org’s way in 2022, it’s basically been the inverse in 2023. In reality, they’re likely somewhere in between, which means they should keep a talented and controllable core intact for the most part (Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, Woo, Julio, JP, France, Raleigh). They need to take the plunge and make a splash on an impact bat this offseason.
I don’t think I’d include France as part of that core, but otherwise, I think you nailed the core.
I’d like to see them extend Murphy and retain a few relievers, but generally speaking, Seattle should be open for business.
They need impact bats (plural) and contact hitters.
I contemplated whether or not I should include France and Woo (I would move Woo for a bat for sure), but I assume both are here to stay and both are affordable, so figured why not. I agree that we should be open for business, but absolutely think we should make teams overpay for Sewald or Munoz, particularly because I expect a bigger splash in the offseason, and I think we can compete if we do that.
I would also not include France as part of the core. Zero power 1b is a big hole in the lineup.
Well we know he’s not “zero power,” particularly if we’re not assessing a guy based solely on a single season (especially a down season). In his previous 3 seasons as a Mariner, he never slugged below .436, and he still was top 30 slugging in the AL when putting up that number.
As an Astros fan, I look at the Mariners as a team with a great pitching staff – starting rotation is awesome and the bullpen is strong. But their hitters including Julio don’t scare anyone. Bunch of free swinging .220-.250 guys who live on the occasional HR. They can’t afford to trade someone who may be their best offensive guy and a clutch hitter.
That’s fair, but I would note that they likely don’t see themselves as contenders and may not want to take the risk of having him accept the QO if they were to hang on to him.
I understand your fear, and you may be correct about the M’s management’s feelings on Teo…AND I do believe the M’s management has proven time and time again to be too conservative in their assessments of player’s worth on the open market.
There was an EXTREME amount of money spent last off season on offensive players, and there is NO reason to believe that won’t continue. It probably will not be as extreme – nor do I expect any more teams spending in excess of $300M next year… BUT Teo will get a 2-4 year deal worth over $20M per year.
He’s been bad in 3 of the 4 months he’s played this year at the plate and has been worse in the field the last couple of months. He’s on pace for 1.2 or 1.3 fWAR. ZiPS is a little higher on him, but not by much.
If he were to have the QO attached, his value would be affected negatively.
I don’t think he will get 20AAV on a multi-year deal even without the QO. But the one thing I would feel confident in stating is that Seattle almost certainly wouldn’t want to pay him 20m even for one year.
Worth noting, apart from Judge and Nimmo, I don’t think any outfielder got a 20m AAV deal. Someone can correct me if I’m mistaken.
I do not have a crystal ball, nor do I have any influence over where teams spend their money this offseason.
That said, I fully expect Teo to be one of the top 3 OF’s on the market, and probably in the top 10 AAV contracts this offseason.
Teams, like the M’s said when they traded for Teo, teams VALUE barrell % and exit velocities, as well as several other offensive stats. K’s do not seem to matter anymore to teams. Thus, since Teo has a history of performing well in these stats, and the lack of available competition for Teo this offseason, I expect the spending to continue on the Teo types of players.
Yes, the QO will hurt any free agent’s value… and only time will tell us if teams deem $20M too much for Teo. My tea leaves say…
Barrel% and high a high EV average mean little when Chase% is high and Contact% is low. Joey Gallo has a similar profile (though he strikes out much more). He’s making 11m this year.
Free agency won’t feature many solid outfielders. But I wouldn’t be surprised if none of them make 20 AAV. Bellinger might be the exception.
We’ll see what happens, but I don’t think Seattle has any interest in paying Teo 20m. I don’t think they actually want him back. I expect to see an approach focused on more disciplined hitters.
Agree with you on the need for more contact and less swing and miss. However, sometimes you have to take what the market gives you. The Ms may address the need through trade this week with hitters controlled for more than 1 season.
If they don’t, I can’t imagine them not offering Teo the QO. What free agent hitters has Seattle signed over the past few seasons?
They just spent $10m and $7m on Kolton Wong and AJ Pollock and neither produced.
The projections for Wong and Pollock were a lot better than their current production.
But I would be surprised if Seattle gave Teo the QO they way he’s playing right now. A hot August and September could change that, but I don’t even expect him to remain a Mariners past the deadline.
He wouldn’t get them much of a return, but they’d save money, which appears to be a priority.
I also expect Teo to be traded… and the M’s get more than you expect, but less than Submariner or I expect…. but I REALLLLY hope he does not.
I would much rather have the 1st round comp pick or worst case – a streaky AVERAGE OF with power and playoff experience.
In fact, I would prefer Teo (even at $20M) to many of the impending 2024 OF free agents like: Canha, Renfroe, Blackmon, Winker, and etc…
Trade him! A right handed bat rental is appealing for many teams. DiPoto can work his magic and trade this cow for some magic beans.
Mets buying? Just because they traded Davis and 3 prospects for a weak platoon doesn’t mean another team will offer anything good.
He’s not helping, he’s just playing at scrub level so dumping him isn’t going to do much to their level of competitiveness right now.
If they do end up holding on to him and he finishes the season with a roughly league average line, I don’t think they should worry about whether he accepts a qualifying offer or not. Either take the pick if he declines or the gamble of a bounce back in 2024 if he accepts.
I would guess he would gladly accept. I wouldn’t QO him.
Why would you be willing to use $20MM of your payroll for a poor fielding OF with no on base skills? I don’t think he would get close to $20MM per on the free market. JDM only pulled in $11MM. Its not even a gamble that he would take the QO, as it currently stands.
Jerry DiPoto: I don’t know
Tough conundrum.
They need him this year with Kelenic’s absence.
Difficult to assess his trade value with his insane K rate.
But I keep thinking since the M’s have a hard time convincing power hitters to sign in Seattle, they should do everything they can to sign Teo to an extension as their DH of the next few years. Or at least slap the QO on him. If he accepts, great. If not, the comp pick might be stronger than any potential return at the deadline.
If he’s traded (and/or Ty France and to a lesser extent Sewald), it just provides that much heftier a shopping list for next offseason. Which we all know isn’t their strong suit.
I feel like he would take the 20 million so no comp pick. Not much trade value as an expensive weak platoon. Would mostly be a salary dump.
If they get a good offer, maybe, but they just be better off standing pat at the deadline.
“Should a team not considered a contender trade the pending free agent who leads the league in strikeouts?”
Not sure that this deserved to even be a question.
The Mariners are going to go back to back years with baseballs strikeout leader on their roster.
Jonathan India would cost the M’s Logan Gilbert. The Reds want an established young controllable SP, that’s Gilbert.
India will probably stay a Red if they don’t move from their stance.
As one of the worst defensive second baseman, India’s trade value is somewhat limited… He is a bit of an enigma, great rookie year in 2021, down year in 2022, great start in 2023 and more in line with 2022 for several weeks now…
The fact that India is a putrid defender, is factual.
Whether or not India offensively is good enough to overcome his defensive deficiencies is questionable.
India is flawed enough that he most certainly does not. warrant a young controllable starting pitcher in return. Perhaps a good rental like Giolito, plus one of their bullpen arms… That is about the ceiling of India’s value.
@WampumWalloper
If that is what the Reds want then India will not be traded. It will take more than just India to even get Miller, much less Gilbert.
@MathandBaseball
Even to get Woo the Reds would need to include someone else.
As everyone else has mentioned, it will cost the Reds a good bit more than India to get Gilbert. India is not as good, and has less years of control.
This whole darn site massively undervalues Gilbert.
No kidding! Trade discussions on sites like this are hilarious. The amount of people who use the (BTV) trade value tool then present it as facts just baffles me
To your point DarkSide- Take the article from last wk where the St. Louis FO was quoted as saying they “want a young SP like Logan Gilbert” almost every single Cards fan described Gilbert as an SP4 or ‘back end starter.’
I would bet $$ that all those Cards fans who undervalued him have yet to see him pitch a full game more than once in the last 2 seasons
That BTV site cracks me up. Many, if not most, of the big trades they claim were proposed on the site and became a reality were actually submitted after the trades were made, or were reversals proposed by fans that were upset with the moves their team made.
The personnel lists aren’t accurate, the values are drastically off-base because of their crude calculating system, and there’s little or no consideration for core players/clubhouse leaders.
It’s supposed to be a site for fun, to give fans an idea if their ideas are in the ballpark. Nobody should take it seriously.
Value is based on success and marketability. If the Mariners won 5 World Series in the next 10 years, they would be the most valuable franchise in the sport. You are conflating value with size. Also realize there are more millionaires in Washington per capita than any other state in the country. Market-size relates to viewership through tv/online and the ability to sellout the stadium. The Mariners are one of the few teams that own their own tv station. They also get to claim viewers from Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, SW Canada, and parts of Wyoming. The Mariners have more tv resources, rich recession proof ticket buyers, and they get secondary revenue from many other sport teams. You think the Yankees are a big market, the Mariners broadcast to twice as many homes. Market-size purely relates to population withinbtheir geographical market and that doesn’t matter now that you can watch your team anywhere. If you add all the 30+ year olds that grew up a Griffey fan, the Mariners might have one of the widest reaching fan bases in the country outside the bandwagon Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, and Giants. The Mariners profits were $83.8M, defintely more than it’ll cost for Shohei, and you have to figure every profit metric would increase with him on the team from ticket sales, broadcasting profits, merchandise sales, and other team related marketing projects. So they can afford Ohtani is the point.
Not a deal the Mariners would accept.
Sure the phone is ringing off the hook to pick up $5MM in salary a 30% K rate and on base sub .300 pending free agent.
He’s also hitting .317 with RISP (with an .853 OPS). If you can get Seattle to eat some of that remaining salary in exchange for a prospect in the middle of your Top 30 and adding a project with some potential upside in the low minors, there’s a bunch of teams that would jump at that opportunity to give their offense a jolt.
Teo’s simply the most obvious player they can (should) move.
But I’m not convinced they can jump right back into contention so easily. We’ve see regression from a number of players, and though some of the younger player may adjust and take steps forward, such as Julio, Cal, and even Jarred, there’s a very real possibility of further regression elsewhere.
Whether at the deadline, or in the offseason, Seattle should probably shake things up. That might take more than a few deadline sales and a single offseason, especially with a stingy owner setting self-imposed spending limits.
I voted IDK bc IDK!
I think they’ll move him and split the playing time between younger guys, DiPoto needs to find a way to throw Wong in a deal, too, but that might be asking too much.
@stevil
In a business, which the Mariners are, spending limits are imposed by revenue. Up the revenue, you up the payroll.
Last off season with a full year on contract , all Teo could bring in the market was Swanson. Reliever who didn’t make postseason roster. Now with only 60/55 games left , further decline , can’t expect much for Teo.
swanson has been valuable for the Jays…One of the best set up guys in the league. The mariners do not have enough hitting to contend, just ask Castillo who should have twice as many wins as he does.
Yes he has , Swanson good setup man , of course Jay fans will debate back and forth , to this point in season , whether Teo’s bat missing from the lineup was worth it, but hey
The Mariners are the team where previously favorite players go when they don’t want me to watch them anymore. Would not visit Seattle if given an all-expenses-paid trip to go there. I enjoyed Teo as a Blue Jay. Hope he goes back there – or anywhere. Well, maybe not Atlanta. I can’t stand that chopping chant their fans do.
Lol what if they threw in free Swifty tickets
I’d trade him in a heartbeat. Too much money spent on average plate production and terrible defense. I’m 60 years old, but still a better fielder with a better arm.
Actually, I’m willing to trade anyone not named Rodriguez, Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller or Munoz.
So is Julio always going to be just another bum who chokes in the clutch?
I couldn’t listen to the podcast.
I’m almost ready to give up on him as just another guy who washes out in his second year after originally showing huge promise.
Julio is 22 years old, younger than most prospects.
So you’re ready to give up on him because he’s not ready to carry the franchise?
The key word in my comment is “almost”..
Almost, but of course not quite.
All you say here is true.
Last night, Servais moved Julio down in the lineup.
With less pressure on him, Julio responded with 2 home runs and a great game overall.
Why didn’t all of us couch managers like me think of that?
Fred are you sitting down? Now you’re insight is 100% or better.
Right, Lee.
Now at 9:30 a.m. on Wednesday, I see that they have Julio leading off.
Again, a notably low-pressure spot as regards hitting.
So will Julio again hit really well with the pressure off?
Will Marlowe again hit well?
What about this impressive new guy Mike Ford?
We will soon know.
The Mariners are a .500 team. They’ve been 2 games over/under going on 3 months now.
Jerry calculated similar (Suarez, France, Teo) or better seasons for multiple young position players (Julio, Raleigh, Kelenic) and failed to surround his core with better players (tip of the bat to Stevil who has banged the drum on this already).
In his defense, most of the pricier free agents haven’t lived up to their lofty contracts. The Ms are a mid market team that can’t afford to pay big and be wrong.
Also, who’s to say free agent hitters want to play in Seattle? (T Mobile park suppresses offensive production, Seattle may not be desirable to some, the team has a losing history, previous ownership hasn’t been committed to winning, and some exes have uttered offensive comments).
Jerry should have been more aggressive pursuing the obvious targets (Conforto, re-signing Hanigar, Belinger, and acquiring a better 2B option) but was caught off guard when they received surprisingly high offers.
The Mariners are in their contention window now.
I think you’ll see Jerry and ownership be more aggressive at the deadline and in free agency going forward.
What makes you think they are a mid-market tram? Because they didn’t sign bad free agent contracts? The Padres were called a small market team before the Machado, Tatis, and Bogaerts deals. I have said it before. The Mariners were the most profitable team in 2022, they have the biggest geographical market, they own their own tv station, they also broadcast Blazers, Kraken, Sounders, Timbers, and other regional sporting events on their station, but most importantly they have potentially the most expensive contract in MLB history depending on how Julio develops. Not spending the money isn’t the same thing as not having the money. When Ohtani is available, Jerry Dipoto is going to back up half a billion dollars over 10-12 years and Ohtani will be buying his condo by New Year’s. Ridiculous arguments about the Mariners being poor. They were offering $380M in total value contracts to Griffey and Rodriguez back in the late 80s when stars were making $10-12M/season. They would’ve been the two largest contracts in MLB history at the time.
TGWAA
Facts. The Mariners are a mid market team. Don’t confuse the Padres spending with actual market size; San Diego is also a mid market despite having a wealthy owner throwing crazy money around. (Padres are 49-53)
According to Forbes 2022 mlb team values, the Mariners ranked 16th out of 30 clubs. In addition, Statista ranks the Ms 12th in revenue. Mid market.
Biggest geography means nothing. The Yankees and Mets are the biggest markets along with the Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox. Not coincidently, these teams are the biggest spenders.
I never said the Ms are poor. They aren’t. But they don’t generate revenue like the teams with the biggest markets. Therefore, the Ms payroll isn’t as large. However, within the past year, the Ms have dished out big contracts (Julio $400m, Robbie Ray $120m, and Luis Castillo $120m). No team has more future payroll commitments than the Mariners.
Submariner- although there is no disputing this Mariners team is a .500 team for the last 3 mo’s they have looked a lot better vs better competition since July 1.
Imo it’s fair to say this lineup is flawed, a good number of them are clearly pressing and trying too hard to improve upon last year. I also think its fair to say there is room for improvement with almost half the lineup.
As the M’s came from behind to win last night it struck me…. If they can somehow beat (big if!) MN today to win the series they will have gone 14-8 since July 1, won 5 series and split a 4g all against winning teams
Yes, there’s some hope but I would feel a whole lot better if they strung some wins together and were 10 games above .500.
Most surprising is that their offense is actually slightly ahead of last year’s. The biggest struggle is winning the close games (last year’s team seem to win every close game).
Julio and Geno are beginning to heat up. Now if we could pitch a little better …
the author wrote about Teo’s stats so far; “but it’s been a disappointment nonetheless.” regarding Teo’s ’23 production. Acually, his ’23 stats are slightly better than ’22.
If the team doesnt show a spark by the deadline, they should trade Teo, France, Geno, Sewald if returns are acceptable. Such a bummer.
I thought we had an outfielding shortage, this is like being between a rock, and a hard place. No matter what direction you take it’s not likely it’s going to be fulfilling. If you trade him what do you trade him for? Oh I see, another pitcher? And you were going to say a second basemen. They may address this but more likely next year. Dipoto knows pitching he’s more likely going in this direction it’s not just there’s never enough pitching. but he’s built this up to use as trading chips, That’s how they prefer to roll, They are not going to spend their hard earn money if at all possible. They did box themselves in on this one. I don’t see them not trading Teo. but then you might flip a coin here on this one.
Lee… I agree. This is a coin flip. It is between Jerry / Justin and M’s ownership.
I’ll bet that Hollander wants to keep Teo now, give him a QO and then collect the 1st round pick. Unfortunately Stanton and others in ownership do not want to take the chance on being stuck with Teo… despite the M’s lack of AVERAGE MLB OF’s.
I just hope someone in M’s ownership gets embarrassed enough of all the negative press they are getting, and allows Jerry & Justin to spend money.
I don’t think Teo will be traded at the deadline unless the Ms get a significant return. Because good free agent hitters don’t sign with Seattle (unless overpaid), Seattle should offer Teo the $20m QO. If he accepts it, great. He’s still a good player; 2020-2022 OPS 146, 131, 129, and he’s 108 on the road this year. Teo is only 30 years old and still in his prime. Ms should hope for a bounce back season.
A lot of 2023 free agents received generous offers: Hanigar $45/3 (despite injury history and 2022 decline), Bellinger $20/1 (multiyear lack of production), Conforto $40/2 (injuries and decline).
The 2024 free agent market is thin on productive OF. It’s wouldn’t surprise me if another team offers $85/4 or something similar. If so, the Ms will gladly take a 1st round supplemental draft pick and add to their farm.
He’s a slow starter in the spring. We don’t need that. Move him.
Should they trade him for . . . .? Without that piece of information, I can’t answer.