Following the Mets’ decision to deal future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer to the Rangers over the weekend, eyes around the baseball world have turned toward the other Cooperstown-bound veteran in Queens: Justin Verlander. Previous reporting had connected the Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Reds to the veteran ace, though the Astros and Dodgers have appeared to be the frontrunners for Verlander’s services, in the event that he’s moved before the deadline.
More recent reports have echoed that sentiment, with SNY’s Andy Martino indicating that “three or four” clubs, including the Dodgers and Astros, have engaged with the Mets on Verlander, though no talks have progressed to the point of an agreement on specific players. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez expanded on the Dodgers’ reported interest with some specifics on negotiations between the sides.
Per Gonzalez, a deal between the sides is “unlikely” given the complicating factor of Verlander’s 2025 vesting option, which would convert to a player option if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. That being said, Gonzalez notes that the Mets were willing to pay down the majority of the money Scherzer was owed in order to extract a top prospect in the former of infielder Luisangel Acuna from the Rangers. Given the Mets’ dearth of top pitching prospects and the access LA enjoys, Gonzalez indicates that the likeliest path toward a Verlander deal would be the Dodgers putting together a prospect package of young pitchers that entices the Mets to pay down a significant portion of his salary.
Such a package would certainly be feasible for the Dodgers to put together, if they so chose. Five of the club’s top ten prospects are pitchers, per MLB Pipeline, and youngsters like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Ryan Pepiot are either already in or approaching the majors. That list also doesn’t include young hurler Bobby Miller, who was the club’s top pitching prospect before he became a key cog in the 2023 club’s rotation. While the Dodgers surely wouldn’t consider moving Miller, dealing from the aforementioned trio of prospects could be a reasonable course of action for the Dodgers, perhaps paired with a lower-level arm like Nick Frasso or Landon Knack.
With other top-tier options like Scherzer, Lucas Giolito, and Jordan Montgomery having already moved this deadline, it’s possible that the Dodgers may be running out of alternative options in their pursuit of rotation upgrades. Gonzalez indicates that the club is only expected to add further pitching if it’s an impactful addition, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Marcus Stroman seemingly unlikely to move, Verlander and Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez could be the only arms left of that caliber.
Why would the Mets want LA’s scrub prospects?
Pretty sure the Mets’ farm system is ranked quite a bit lower.
Dodgers have one of the best farm systems in baseball while the Mets are ranked somewhere around the middle of the pack. You have to be trolling.
Dodgers prospects are overrated. They have talent but overrated. Bunch of 24 and 25 year olds.
@King of Cards
Please expound on your hot ta-, er, clearly informed opinion.
Take all the time you need.
Pepiot is how old?
Stone?
Sheehan is 23 and has never pitched at AAA
Michael Bush he’s old 24 or 25 I can’t remember but he’s old
It’s a long list of guys that if they were on any other team would not be as highly rated as they are.
Because they’d be in the majors.
“Dodgers prospects are overrated”..The 9+ time NL West defending champions(9 out of last 10 yrs I believe)have earned trust with their astute baseball management over the years. And guys that came out of their system over the years, like Seagar, Lux, Walker Buehler, Kershaw, Pederson, and Belli are most certainly not “overrated” in my opinion.
The Cardinals have a long long list of guys that came through their system and performed. But they don’t get ranked like Dodgers prospects are today.
You don’t get extra credit for being a good team who historically develops talent well. It’s all based in the current prospects ability and the Dodgers prospects are overrated.
If you consider a 24 or 25 year old too old, what do you consider a 40-something-year-old? Two of those Dodger pitchers would be an excellent return for the Mets.
You’re talking out of your other hole.
@King of Cards
If you want to beat your chest about STL’s list of guys formerly in their system who are now good for other teams, have at it. The list of really good players who your moronic front office traded away, gave up on, etc., is quite a long one indeed. And it must KILL you–as it does my Cards-fans friends–to finally have that bill of organizational failure come due.
But just because the Cards developed some great ballplayers doesn’t mean that other teams–such as, ya know, the Dodgers–haven’t.
I get it. You’re chapped that Mo & Co. absolutely gakked the roster construction of your team….chapped that the Dodgers dared to ask about your most valuable trade chip (whose interest in playing for LA has long been a thing)…chapped that The Cardinal Way has got you here: in last place in the second-worst division in the sport.
But attacking the quality of a farm system that everyone agrees is one of the sport’s best is silly.
Be angry at the idiots in your front office who gave away a veritable All-Star team of talent. Wonder how Mozeliak still has a job.
But this dying on the wrong hill, my man…..
What do you consider 40 somethings? Lucky to be alive!
This kind of comment is what happens when people have no identity of their own and have to tie their identity to a professional (or college, or even high school) team. Then they assume other people do the same thing
Insulting someone by criticizing the sports team they like is pretty pathetic.
What?
That’s a lame reply comment guy. Really lame.
Dodger prospects are overrated. That’s all.
What place are the Cardinals in? Another dysfunctional organization, how is Mo working out for you?
@King of Cards
What was lame about it?
You seem irrationally fired up about an opinion of yours that is silly on its face, and your handle/STL support suggest that you’re actually a Cards fan which, if nothing else, would explain your mood.
Which I can certainly appreciate, as I’d want Mozeliak fired yesterday if I were you…..
I shared my opinion. I provided examples and evidence as to why I have this opinion.
Mozeliak isn’t the problem. He’s won more than anyone associated with the Dodgers has.
This is a Dodgers post so Dodgers fans are here. Big tough guy you are running your mouth.
You are lame. And now you are on ignore good day.
No.
Team prospect lists tend to have a lot of those guys. They are in AAA since they are blocked. Busch being 25 is likely the most concerning- since he is pretty much in the position of needing to be on the 40 man right away; but he is plug and play day 1 for any team that wants to play him at 2b or LF. The issues is that the Dodgers do not need that right now. the 32 HR this season in the minors (more than half in AAA) suggest he is MLB ready.
Stone and Pepiot are getting the normal mid to late rotation arm treatment- they have gotten some run in the bigs, but the dodgers have options so they do not need to give them a ton of rope. Honestly both are easily going to be big league rotation arms the year or next (24 and 25 respectively)- and are top 10 prospects in every system right now.
Beyond that- they have a few more FV 40-45 types (for Pitchers that is 4th or 5th starter or middle releiver) that are 24-26 than most top systems, but i would not call this a group that is all over age..
I would call this one of the most MLB ready farm systems in baseball. Busch and Pages could hit in the middle of the order in half of the teams in baseball tommorrow, and Sheehan, Pepiot and Stone would be the 3/4/5 SP on most rotations right now.
James – Need more thoughtful and detailed replies like this around here
Gracias
MLB ready lol
Keeping prospects down until their mid 20s doesn’t make them more valuable. Why is Bush not on the big league club if he’s so great? Pepiot is hurt he’s a nothing burger at this point. Stone and Sheehan have been bad in the big leagues. Miller is the only guy who actually looks legit.
KoC
Stone has 12 innings.
Sheehan has 36
Perhaps, just perhaps, it’s a bit too early to pass judgement on those two.
Plus, Sheehan was definitely rushed. He was only up due to injury. And he was 16th I. lA’s system by fangraphs. Not really a “top” prospect
Busch isn’t on the big league team because he’s not a great fit. He’s limited defensively and left-handed. He’s not going to play ist because of Freeman. He’s not going to play 3rd because of Muncy. He’s not playing 2nd because the team preferred Vargas.
Its also possible, that he’s a bit overrated.
Note: Please don’t be dumb enough to think that this proves your point.
They could be someone’s 3/4/5 starters? The dodgers just traded for a starter with an almost 7 era on the season. They obviously don’t feel the same way about these guys if they feel they can’t top that.
Stone sucked at AAA. And Sheehan never pitched at AAA. And Pepiot is the one that I really have a problem with he’s old and hurt.
Mets6986
first. It’s 2023. Quit citing ERA
Second. It’s 2023. Quit citing ERA
Third, I don’t agree they would be 3/4/5 in most rotations
I do agree that there a plenty of teams that would be coontent to have 1 or 2 of them in their rotation. That doesn’t include the Dodgers who are fighting for the top of their division and have enough of a margin to deal with the growing pains.
Lastly, it’s 2023. Quit citing ERA
It’s almost like you’re not willing or capable to process new information and just keep saying the same stupid things over and over
That doesn’t make for a very interesting conversation
Neither does talking to someone who’s level of analysis is “sucks”
So, I’m out
LOL it’s the first thing any article posts. It’s the first thing listed in stats. It’s literally a pitchers job to prevent runs but thanks for telling me it’s 2023. I guess in your world if a guy strikes out the side but gets tagged for 4 runs he had a good inning.
Mets6986
Is your actual understanding here in the year 2023?
A good article might mention ERA, but it won’t stop there. You stop which suggests one of two,things
1) a limited understanding
2) trolling
Which is it?
The Dodgers don’t get extra credit for their recent past, but the Cardinals, who last won in 2011, do? The heck?
Dude you typed some nonsense about Jace Peterson in the other thread. And here you are defending Dodgers prospects for whatever reason.
I gave numerous examples of why they are overrated. They are. Why? That’s the real question. It’s just a prospect lost it really doesn’t matter.
Holly cow, do you need every analytic recited to you in a simple conversation on an mlb site in the comment section. Of course there’s more analysis. I’m really not sure what your point is though. What analytic do you want to show that Lance Lynn is a good pitcher. Or just admit you went on a rant about ERA because you had nothing to defend him with and got your feeling hurt because someone wasn’t worshipping the Dodgers moves.
Therock
It’s almost like these guys don’t make any sense
None of your examples made any sense
A useless commenter just looking to engage in conduct
Muted
*conflict
Dammit
That’s what happens when prospects are over rated. Diego Cartaya is the 19th ranked prospect in baseball and is hitting .181 with a .693 OPS in the minors.
Exactly Mets. Any other team and his ranking would drop. But not on the Dodgers.
There are numerous examples of this.
His rating will drop
Why hasn’t Pepiots dropped? He’s an old man and has been hurt all year.
Dodgers prospects are overrated.
He’s barely 20 years old and in AA facing players 2 and 3 years older than he is.
But an OPS under 700 at AA sucks. And if that’s your argument then what about all the Dodgers prospects who are old for their level. Shouldn’t they be downgraded for that?
His rating will drop
But if it’s your claim that Dodger prospects are systematically overrated, présent your evidence
Not your anecdotes, your evidence
Here I’ll show you how,
Go back like ten years and get prospect lists
Combine those lists to get a “meta” ranking
Compile MLB performance for each player on the list
This step is important – do the same for other teams
Compare
If Dodger prospects are consistently rated higher than those of other teams, there should be evidence there
What you’re doing now is just “trust me, bro”.
Cartaya is barely 20 years old and is in AA playing against guys 3 years older.
Cartaya is barely 20 years old and playing against competitors 3 years older.
I am not talking about 10 years ago I am talking this year in 2023.
Again Pepiot is 25 and hasn’t pitched barely this year. On any other team he’s not a top 100 prospect.
Stone has had a terrible year. Other teams guys who have bad years get downgraded for it not Stone or the Dodgers.
Sheehan isn’t that good at all
Bush is old he’s hitting at AAA but so are lots of guys. He’s old.
That’s even worse, then
Like, what?
First, most of these lists were made prior to the season.
Second, rating a player should look at more than just the current season. One bad year doesn’t sink a player.
Third, we, uh, don’t know how these players will turn out yet
“His rating will drop”..It sure will, but prospect lists are not done in real time.
So he can’t compete with them. Not saying the kid is worthless but he obviously isn’t the 19th best prospect in baseball.
@MetsBunchaNumbers
That doesn’t actually make sense
Just because a player is overmatched at a certain level, doesn’t mean they aren’t a top prospect
I mean, most prospects would be overmatched in the majors, does that mean there are no good prospects?
The padres have a 17 year old catcher in single A facing the same aged guys that cartaya is, and he’s also raking better than cartaya ever did.
So that excuse is dogwater
@dodgers32 Ethan salas is 4 years younger than cartaya, facing the same competition, and doing worlds better both offensively and defensively
@damascasj
I don’t know to whom you are referring
Maybe they are a better prospect than Cartaya
Or, just maybe, performance in part of a season isn’t the only thing that goes into prospect rankings
Or, maybe, both
He is going to be 22 in September.
But not on the Dodgers.
=========================
So your take here is that the analysts for these rating companies are ranking prospects according to the teams they play for?
Interesting take.
filihok — Although I will say that RECENTLY Dodger prospect hype has been loud while their bats and arms not so much when they reach The Bigs.
KoC – Show me a recent ranking of Pepiot that hasn’t dropped
The MLB.com list was updated not too long ago. Why’s he still ranked that high?
Pete’sview – you see the problem with this right?
Recent graduates haven’t had time to either bust or succeed.
I will argue and complain about a completely arbitrary number on a website because I literally have nothing better to do.
KoC – where was he ranked before?
Where’s he ranked now?
How much prospect value should a player lose do to injury? And why?
Of course. That’s the nature of rookies, but it does seem that the Dodgers brand gets extra sway with the prognosticators over pretty much every other club. They have a solid system, obviously, but recent results seem to show a bias.
As I posted elsewhere
The Yankees and Dodgers tend to be buyers most trade deadlines. As such, their prospects are more commonly discussed than those of other teams. Thus, people are more aware of them. Thus, people are more aware when they don’t succeed.
If a top 100 prosoect that a big market team trades in a big deadline deal doesn’t make it, people remember that
If a top 100 prospect on a team that holds on to them doesn’t make it, well, sometimes prospects don’t pan out
That doesn’t make sense? What are grading your prospects by if you’re ignoring that they are overmatched at a certain level? He is almost 22 and is not capable of even coming close to competing at AA. Didn’t say he didn’t have a future. I’m saying no way is he the best catching prospect in baseball at 19 overall. Not even I’m the top 100.
People say this constantly, but which recently traded prospects have been great?
I mean how recent are you talking? Every great player was a prospect at some point. You probably WANT to mean in the last two or three seasons but then that means they’ve probably only had just enough time to get their first experience in the majors which is commonly not a prospects best work.
See Keibert Ruiz, steady MLB catcher, Josiah Gray, All Star Pitcher, those come to mind. Maybe Dean Kremer solid SP, Josh Sborz, solid Reliever, sure I’m forgetting a few others.
Kelbert Ruiz has been a bust to this point.
“steady” LOL. This proves my point. None of those players are great.
“This proves my point. None of those players are great”…Mike Trout was demoted in his first year and is going to the HOF eventually. Expecting players to be “great” their FIRST yr is unrealistic or naive at best.
Mike Trout was 19 in his first year. Batted .326 at age 20 with 30 Homers.
And was still demoted in his first year. You’ve proved my point actually.
Go look at Mike Schmidt’s stats in Year 1 & Year 2. I think he turned out pretty well.
The Reds. That’s hilarious. LMAO
The Reds are in first place, have a loaded farm system and will have a $40 million payroll at the end of the year. The Reds are better suited than any team in baseball to acquire Justin Verlander. I hope they don’t though, because he is not worth it.
Trust me, You don’t have a thing to worry about. LMAO even more.
The Reds payroll is 110 million. Where did you come up with 40 million?
One man’s trash is the Mets’ feast.
You’re right I don’t want their lower prospects, I want either Bobby Miller or Gavin Stone and Andy Pages plus a lower prospect
@jvent
Hahahaha.
You’re new to this trade-deadline business, I see…..
jvent
You’re right I don’t want their lower prospects
=================================
You need to meditate on the fact that Verlander is probably a #2 getting paid $43M a year. That makes him worthless. You might not get Miller even if Cohen coughed up the entire $93M that Verlander might be owed.
@JoeBrady
That anyone thinks that the Dodgers would give up Bobby Miller–whose stuff already ranks with the game’s elite this year–for ANYONE (let alone a 40yo pitcher whose best days are in the rear-view) is mind-boggling. And that some think it would be Miller PLUS OTHER THINGS is…hilarious.
Miller’s Stuff+ this is 122 (tied with Corbin Burnes for 5th in the sport).
Miller’s Pitching+ is 109 (tied with Gerrit Cole for 4th in the sport)
I know it sucks that Uncle Steve’s cash couldn’t buy you a pennant this year. But…I mean…come on, folks….
I mean, I want Gal Gadot…
Baseball Trade Values isn’t gospel, but, it’s reasonable
They have the difference in value between Verlander and Miller and Pages as about $80 million. Now, that’s roughly what Verlander would be owed from now until the end of 2025.
baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-150978/
But, I don’t think the Dodgers are doing that.
I wouldn’t think that Verlander’s very league averagey K and BB rates would inspire much confidenc.e
Verlander is Way Over Paid, there is no way he brings back much unless more than half his total salary is paid by New York. Same thing happened the year the Tigers traded him to Houston. L.A. wanted him then as well but did not want to pay up to get him. I predict the same thing happens this go-round too.
Verlander will stay in New York.
Because the best Mets pitching prospects will be working at Home Depot in 5 years.
Blade Tidwell will be a potential all star in five years. Tyler Stuart is leading all of the minors in ERA. Both are now in double A.
@NeonCop
The Dodgers’ farm system is light years ahead of the Mets’, especially the arms.
But you, avowed troll, know this already…..
People mindlessly repeat this narrative, yes. Most of their prospects are mediocre at best…
@Neon Cop
Again….disabuse us all of the mindless narrative, then (with which most all of the sport’s experts agree).
Who’s overrated? And why?
I look forward to your work.
Hmm, I wonder if there’s some incentive for the “experts” to be lockstep on this matter. Big budget, big city team. For ex: Ruiz sucks, Gray is mediocre, etc. You’re only interested in swallowing a pre-digested narrative. Sad…
Neon Cop, let me get this straight. You think baseball media outlets are colluding to inflate the Dodgers’ prospect stock… because they’re a big market? And that these inflated stocks are the reason that other teams want to trade for their prospects? If our narrative is pre-digested then yours is pink chicken.
I think whoever is making the list is a Dodgers fan.
Do you know who makes the list? I sure would like to know.
LOL that’s exactly it. Look at the way the Yankees are covered, featured on national TV, etc.
You’re so close…it’s almost, as if, big city money is important to a big city business…
But that has nothing whatsoever to do with prospect rankings? Fangraphs has the Yankees, the biggest baseball brand in the world, at number 26. Almost as if your narrative is based on no facts at all. Again the implication that other teams trade for the Dodgers’ prospects because the media tells them to is insane.
@math
60 grade post and retort
Nice
The Dodgers Farm System is light years ahead of the Mets MLB team.
Who would want the Mets’ washed up cavemen on their bloated contracts?
Lol the rangers who gave up their no 3 prospect and a very regarded one for Mr Home Run King. You gonna love those flying balls leaving the park just like you enjoy deGrom in his house with his surgery.
Careful. deGrom Texas Ranger doesn’t like facts and will mute you if you present him with them. Hilarious that a Rangers fan would say that no one wants the Mets “washed up cavemen on bloated contracts” literally a day after the Rangers traded for one.
A Mets fan talking smack! Lmfao, worst team in baseball by payroll.
Because that’s all you get for an underwater contract like Verlander’s. It’s either that or you don’t trade him. If you want to pay all his salary, you can probably get a good Dodgers prospect.
Here come Neon Cop making the rounds again with the usual “Dodgers bad!” trolling. Vargas hasn’t been good in the majors and all off a sudden the Dodgets farm is overrated? Laughable
Didn’t say bad, simpleton. Just that they’re overrated by the media every year (bc LAD brings in more money). See also: NYY. If you guys just thought a little harder, just a fraction, you’d start making some progress.
They’ve made the playoffs 10 seasons in a row and are well on track for 11. But sure some media conspiracy to pander to a big market team
@Neon Cop
An alternative hypothesis:
The Yankees and Dodgers tend to be buyers most trade deadlines. As such, their prospects are more commonly discussed than those of other teams. Thus, people are more aware of them. Thus, people are more aware when they don’t succeed.
If a top 100 prosoect that a big market team trades in a big deadline deal doesn’t make it, people remember that
If a top 100 prospect on a team that holds on to them doesn’t make it, well, sometimes prospects don’t pan out
Bias isn’t as sexy of an explanation as a conspiracy, but it’s probably a better one
Dodgers have the best farm system in baseball. Dumb question on your part son
The contract that he signed with the Mets is really a 3year deal. Year 2 (2024) has a kicker in it that if he pitches 140 innings it triggers a 3ed year .
Hi AL. Weren’t you the GM of some team back in the day? Your name rings a bell.
No, I’m just a simple man managing a quickie mart
God bless you, friend. The world needs quickies.
The Astros won The World Series in spite of Verlander, not because of him. The Mets could have kept Bassit AND Stroman for approximately what they paid Verlander. I cannot believe the Mets let Stroman, Bassitt and Taijuan Walker go, only to sign two OLD, overvalued pitchers like Max & Verlander.
Interesting, generally agree with the sentiment, but wouldn’t say “in spite of”, Also agree regarding Mets. Sometimes all across mlb the musical chairs don’t make sense. Cohen and the Mets wanted names. Cost money. Almost signed Correa too. Imagine lol. Didn’t work the spending. But spending is ok. Arte also spends and hasn’t worked. Look at almost all the big signings lately. The SS and 2b guys. All busts so far except seager Semien.
Last year you would have included Semien in with the busts, and Seagar in the underperformed lists. Long contracts, but for this year they have earned their money (when not on the IL).
Anyone who thinks Semien and his 5.7 rWAR was a ‘bust’ in 2022, you have no idea what baseball is.
A superb fielding 2Bman with an above average bat, plays 161 games, hits 26 HR, scores 101 runs, fast, smart, 25 SB… That’s a bust?
Not resigning Semien ( I think they tried but he wanted to be in Texas ) hurt the Jays. And 2022 was a great year for Semien.
They let Wheeler walk when he wanted to stay.
BIG Mistake with Wheeler; he’s been worth every penny to Philly and it’s not surprising they returned to contention shortly after signing him. Wheeler is a front of rotation guy on a reasonable contract, a value that’s getting very hard to find in MLB.
Wilpons owned the team when Wheeler was a FA…
Wheeler is a “horse”. They are far and few between. Five inning Snell types don’t do it for me.
You’re right – let’s totally ignore all the work Verlander did in the regular season that helped propel the Astros to the World Series, and ignore the 6 inning, 11k start against the Yankees in the ALCS. Love minimizing a whole season down to two starts!
Yes… they won in spite of the AL Cy Young winner.
By the way, since you are obviously checking facts, why don’t you compare the stats of the 3 pitchers you listed vs. Verlander this year. Bassitt and Walker have imploded in the last 2 months, Stroman is returning to Earth, too. Verlander, however, is throwing up quality starts.
I understand the frustration of Mets fans, but let’s not go overboard. The signing was not great, but Verlander is still a top tier pitcher.
“Still a top tier pitcher”…Used to be, but “Father Time” is undefeated and eventually beats everyone. There’s a reason the Met’s owner, Cohen, called out the “starting pitching” when asked what went wrong with the season. Did you really think he was talking about David Peterson?
According to 2022 and 2023 stats, Justin Verlander is a top tier pitcher. I wish people would do a little Stat comparison of Verlander against the rest of the NL pitchers. The guy’s walks are up, his K’s are down, but everything else is near the top of the leaderboards.
Is he a $43 million pitcher? No. But then again, there is really only one player worth that AAV.
@SeeUonTheUlnarSide [Mookie Betts nods graciously]
@mlb fan Bassitt and Walker weren’t the answer, given their respective 4.60 and 4.31 FIPs. Also, combined, in 2023 their ERAs are no better than Scherzer’s.
Where I agree is in not adding two old pitchers for the price of FOUR much younger pitchers, given those four would have kept Carrasco, Peterson, Megill, et al off the mound in Queens.
The main error was in not going in to Cohen’s first offseason with any sort of plan. The FO seemed not to know that while they had a strong nucleus, a lot of the team was going to have to be replaced in two years. In addition, if you know your payroll is going to $360 million by 2023, why would you ever make last minute lunges at Scherzer then Verlander when pitchers like Kevin Gausman were available for half the price? And if you know that even a $360 million payroll won’t get it done given all the needs will have to be filled through FA, why would you ever trade top talent in Giminez in order to bid against yourself for Lindor? The Mets had no idea they’d effectively be unable to afford Lindor even with a record-shattering payroll within 3 seasons. Clueless, really.
3rd year is for less money, but nonetheless it can certainly be a 3 year deal. The Mets would be better off holding onto him unless the Dodgers come back with an offer that would fill up the Mets cup of pitching prospects. Next years FA market for pitching is relatively solid, as well.
@padam
Why would the Mets be better off holding on to a 40yo pitcher who’ll cost almost $80M over the next two seasons after this one, rather than take a couple arms from a top-3 farm system?
So Uncle Steve can write a bunch of checks again this offseason, and watch this all play out…again?
No matter what Mets fans want to believe, the team is not built to win now–and that’s not even because the staff is old and/or lousy. The lineup is full of holes, and you can only buy so many quick fixes…..
“Why would the Mets be better off holding on to a 40yo pitcher who’ll cost almost $80M over the next two seasons after this one, rather than take a couple arms from a top-3 farm system?”
He said the Mets should hold onto Verlander “unless the Dodgers come back with an offer that would fill up the Mets cup of pitching prospects.” He made a point, you acted like you disagreed, then made the exact same point. Reading is important…
It’s sorta shocking that despite the $363m payroll 5/9ths of the lineup has been bad, and 2/9ths of the rest are underperforming. In addition, as of two days ago, not a single bullpen guy who’d gone more than 18 innings had a FIP under 4.00. This FO has been recycling DFAs from 29 other teams and clearly have no idea how to build a merely average pen despite having more resources than anyone else, and in an area where money is extremely helpful.
Look how many millions they set on fire just to scoop up Trevor Gott and the 7.04 ERA in 7.2 innings. Their FO is cretinous.
The lineup is a lot of the same players with the same swings. When one goes cold, they all follow suit. It’s an epidemic the team has had since they started targeting “form” over “function.”
The bullpen was cold diarrhea from the start of the season. Sadly, they flipped their most reliable (and best character) to the Marlins.
I like that “less money” refers to $35mm. Most teams can’t afford that. Cincinnati can’t. Houston refused to top $25mm, and nothing has changed on that. That makes it LAD or he’s staying put.
I love that the Dodgers are always involved in FA and the trade deadline, but trading for Verlander doesnt win you a championship. And that salary is huge for a guy who is only getting older. There are some good teams this year that the Dodgers will have a hard time getting through in a 5 or 7 game playoff series. If I were Friedman (and Im not) I ride this year out, try and get everyone healthy for ’24 and throw the bank at Ohtani next year.
That’s my sentiment as well.
I have a question for you Hardball, or any other commenters here who know the rule, because I do not. If the Mets pay down all or part of Verlander‘s 2024 and 2025 salary, and he joins the Dodgers, does this mean that his salary will not count toward the Dodgers luxury tax liabilities in those years? I think Verlander salary, would still count against the Dodgers, but I’m not certain of that.
Only what the Dodgers are forced to pay, no?
I think the Mets pay both the salary and the tax on top of that, to whatever extent they pick up salary.
Joe, it seems to be the case that acquiring team would calculate remaining salary, PLUS what Cohen sent them, as part of the very abstruse tax calc?
or MINUS what Cohen sends to the acquiring team?
or MINUS what Cohen sends to the acquiring team?
==========================
Yes. If Verlander salary is $43M, and Cohen pays half, then both sides AAV get hit for $21.5M.
Only the money the Dodgers pay him counts toward the tax. Its probable the Mets will pay at least half of his salary to get a decent prospect return. Verlander would force us to probably only sign Shohei OR Urias, but we could still afort 1 of them.
Dude said “us.” Why would Ohtani want to play for them?
@Neon Cop
Aside from the trolling–as it’s obvious what “dodgerfan83” means–are you asking why Ohtani would want to play for the Dodgers?
Do you not have any hobbies, or other ways to fill your time?
Neon Cop
Dude said “us.” Why would Ohtani want to play for them?
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Are you saying that Ohtani would refuse to play for the Dodgers? Why so?
They changed this rule. I couldn’t respond accurately. Only with what it was. It used to be the AAV goes against the Luxury Tax no matter who is paying it. And that would fluctuate based on Player/Club options and incentives. This is a lot to say I don’t know for certain but I hope this helps.
The portion the Mets pay counts against them and also counts towards their luxury tax amount. The portion another team pays counts against them and towards their luxury tax amount – if that applies to that team – whether Dodgers or Rangers or Astros or whoever.
So my understanding is that however it is split is how it applies to each team, and it should be to the year it is paid.
On a side note I’m not certain about, and which would only apply in specific circumstances, if any of the money is paid accelerated (early), my guess is that would still account against the year it is due for.
@norcalblue The only money that counts towards the LT is the money you yourself pay out. (With that money averaged over the years of the deal, of course.)
Thank you. The preponderance of the responses essentially agree with your clear statement. This is a significant point and provide some reason to believe that a deal could still take place. We will soon see. Thanks so much.
Teams that trade these kind of players always pay down the contract. It’s almost not even worth bringing it up except to ask “how much will they pay down to get the prospects they want?”
It literally already says that in the article, but thanks for the info!
I don’t get it. The Dodgers didn’t get any player of significance during the offseason. They were saving their sheckles so they could go after Ohtani this off-season. They were playing for 2024, not for 2023. Now, with the Dodgers most likely going to the PO, they’re building up their team, if you could call Lance Lynn an upgrade. They’re very much buyers.
They were playing for 2024? Who told you that?
They didn’t expect to be paying Bauers contract. When that happened they went over the luxury tax and the off-season was pretty much over at that point.
Clearing payroll space for Ohtani is the narrative beloved by the sports media, but that doesn’t make it accurate.
Their performance in 2023 may well have changed the FO’s and ownership’s emphasis.
There’s going to be one dbag that votes against Verlander going to Cooperstown just like with Derek Jeter
Why would you use Derek Jeter for your argument? He got more votes than anyone but isn’t even a top ten Yankee of all time. Who didn’t vote for Ruth and Gehrig would be better question?
One of the most clutch Yankees ever and the best Yankee SS ever. What planet are you on to even make such an idiotic statement
Do you think Jeter is in the same stratosphere as Ruth and Gehrig? Jeter is the 95th ranked player ranked by WAR in MLB history. He is by far not the best player to ever play the game. There are twenty Yankees with more World Series wins than him. Jeter was a hall of Famer but doesn’t deserve the highest ballot total in history of the sport at the time. Not even close.
WAR is the most useless and baseless statistic to determine how good a player is
The Hall of Fame is a joke in my eyes especially when Derek Jeter doesn’t get a unanimous vote, along with not putting other deserving players in the Hall.
In case anyone wants to troll Verlander, here is his line for his last 7 starts:
4W – 1L
42.1 IP
27 hits
7 ER
18 BB
37 K
1.49 ERA
1.06 WHIP
Enough posting about how the guy is past his prime, or no longer an ace. Even on an underperforming team, he has been lights-out.
I think verlander to the cubs is a good fit. They have the money and could use a replacement pitcher for stroman/Hendricks next season. They also have the farm system depth to trade from. Lots of OF prospects, no where to put them all though.
Very surprised to see Atlanta listed as a possible destination.
I find the possibility of him joining the braves as an unlikely but pleasing option.
There’s simply no way the Mets would trade him to the Braves. Maybe if he was a rental, but not when he’s under contract through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025. The Mets supposedly want to compete next year.
@Walk Off IBB Everyone will be competing next year. It’s the mealymouthed GM’s substitute for contending—which the Mets won’t do short of a $400m payroll. Given how far off they are from _contending,_ they’d do well to back off in 2024, play their four main prospects full time, and reload for 2025 during the 2024-25 offseason.
It’s not an option. The Mets aren’t trading a star player to the Braves or vice versa.
I’m surprised as well because the Braves don’t have the prospects to get it done. They’re a great organization but currently their farm system is one of the worst in the league.
Everyone has the prospects for Verlander. His contract is underwater. The only question is how much Cohen wants to chip in to buy prospects. What a mess.
Verlander’s contract is nowhere near underwater and he’s been pitching great. You don’t have any idea what you’re talking about. It’s not a mess by any means, which is why they’re reluctant to even trade him.
The Mets should have to eat all of Verlander’s salary and get low A ball prospects in return
If they can’t get upper prospects for him they’ll keep him , that was a joke right ? Pay all of his contract for a low A player
@jvent, I think it was a ‘make your bed’ type comment
The hell with the Mets go a different route
I wonder if the ease at which the Mets sign and then quickly toss aside players will be taken into account by future free agents?
Flattery is available
Flattery, like Flaherty, will get you nowhere.
Future free agents who want to be paid top dollar? Yeah I’m sure they won’t mind.
They may appreciate not having to play for the Mets, while getting paid by them.
NTCs will still be a thing. As long as Cohen is candid with free agents (and fans alike), I doubt it will be a deterring factor.
The Mets are hardly the only team to trade guys at the deadline during disappointing years.
It could actually be a selling feature. Get top dollar with a no trade clause, then choose your destination.
Is it possible that Scherzer….with all his intensity….just wasn’t a good fit on this team and so they just cleared him out?? That’s how I see it since the suspension and how demonstrative that he was innocent
Not sure why he wouldn’t fit in. The dude volunteered to be a union rep leader during the lockout and CBA negotiations which speaks about his character as he already has all the accolades and money.
His character comes into question on this team as he acts the fool when he’s caught “sticky” handed. Swore on his kids. Sheepish apology soon followed. He’s a hell of a competitor but at this stage in his career he needs help being the dominant pitcher he once was.
The Verlander ship sailed in 2017. That is when AF should have traded for him. I would not give up squat to take on that contract. Mets would have to pay some of the money like they did in the Scherzer trade. And, take Taylor and his contract.
Not gonna lie, the scouting report from MLB on each of these three Dodger prospects is middle of rotation through multi-inning reliever. If I’m trading an elite arm and picking up salary, I expect an elite triple-A starter. Otherwise, just sit on Verlander for a retooled 2024 run.
Bobby Miller looks like the most legitimate pitcher that they have. The others are “good” but if the Mets are paying Verlander’s salary, they should get a better return from the Dodgers.
Yes, because if this is all he is worth now, his value will only get higher as his performance lessens and he get older. Hold on to him.
He’s the defending Cy Young winner, someone who’s allowed just 2 runs through 19.1 innings in his last three starts. If you don’t want to pony up a fair return, then you must not be interested in bolstering your pitching corps.
That said, if you want to trade garbage, the Mets would be happy to give you Cookie instead. Wow has he been a disappointment on the mound since coming to New York.
Cookie had a 4.43 FIP in his 3 years with the Mets, including games where he should have been sitting, but the Mets #6 starters are so bad they just kept pushing him out there. Disappointing, yes, but perfectly acceptable raw stats for a #5.
Then the Mets should keep him if he is that good.
Honestly, that’s what I hope pans out. I want to build a better rotation for 2024 that include Verlander and Senga.
@echo, the 2025 option is a performance based trigger. After 140ip it becomes a vested option.
LAD one of the few teams that can afford, or want to, pay a 40 yo almost $100M to pitch over the next 2.5 yrs.
Freeman deferring $57M of his $162M until 2040 at 0% interest will give you that luxury.
But they probably wouldn’t have to. The Mets will have to kick in a big chunk of his guarantee to move him and get something meaningful back in return.
Then the Mets won’t trade him. They are not desperate to get him off the books.
They did it to move Scherzer. I don’t know any magic numbers but if I had to guess, it would take in the neighborhood of $25M to get any team to bite and to get a decent return.
*Correction: $22.5M (what NYM is paying of NYM’s contract) — the comment delete option doesn’t delete.
“They did it to move Scherzer.”
They moved Scherzer because he has not been performing. A FIP near 5, nearly two homers per 9 innings. Diminished velocity and spin rates. Maybe he puts it all together for Texas, but he’s been off his game nearly all season.
Verlander, however, is performing. Took a little bit to get going after an injury, but he’s been great for two months now.
They are not desperate to get him off the books.
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Then why did they pay maybe $36M to get rid of Scherzer?
He’s also two years older, and his contract takes him potentially through his age 42 season.
Verlander is outperforming sherzer by a lot.
And the Mets paid down more than half of what Scherzer was owed to make him move. I wouldn’t see them as having to go that far on Verlander, but not no place. My WAG is $25M, around a quarter of what he’s owned, depending on what the Mets want back.
Maybe a lot of guessing for nothing. Odds-on he goes nowhere.
“Then why did they pay maybe $36M to get rid of Scherzer?”
Because they’re two different people? They paid all of that money because Scherzer has been underperforming and his advanced stats are not good. Verlander, on the other hand, has been great. Is this such a difficult concept to grasp?
@BlueSkies_LA It’s interesting: If Verlander was available today for nothing but money, and you could have him for the 2023 stretch run and had to take on his option for 2025, making a total of… $92.77m for 2-1/3 years, would you pay it?
Would you be willing to go as high as 80m? Or 70m (which averages out to a 30m AAV)?
He’s just had a great 6 starts, but he’s 40 and that’s not his TT level. His 3.82 FIP and declining K and BB numbers aren’t illusions.
Well I personally don’t have that kind of money, but I question whether his market is still $43M per. When teams sign huge AAV contracts with special players it’s with the understanding that the out years are pretty likely be a loss in market value terms. Part of the price they pay to get prime years. So it depends on what odds you place on 2024 (and potentially 2025) being out years, the ones the Mets bought but other teams are going to be unexcited about inheriting. Feels like they’re going to have to offer a discount.
The Giants are only 2 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, along with currently holding the #1 WildCard spot.
I’m hearing next to nothing about them making moves to improve their roster? What is Farhan’s strategy?
Meanwhile the Astros are trailing the Rangers and their SP is a joke, and their GM isn’t doing anything to upgrade at SS or get a better defensive LF’er or 1B.
on the contrary, Astros starting pitching is one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen, even with Framber & Javier having a really bad July. They are down Verlander, McCullers, Urquidy, and Luis Garcia, but are still holding it together and winning games, with Brown, France, Bielak, and Blanco.
His strategy is to not leak what he’s doing to the press.
Every single owner , KC , Pitt you name it can afford to pay big contracts. But within the “ system” employers always want to keep salaries down.
There is so much money available from revenues.
Don’t kid yourself , when any owner wants to spend or absorb $$ they can.
All billionaires.
And they don’t rely on their toys for their living.
Some spend as much money on annual maintenance on their yachts as JV’s contract.
This contains nothing other than speculation and scenarios that neither team has proposed.
I heard thru the grapevine, Arte gonna give Ohtani 2.5% equity in the coming 10 billion real estate development. The jewel will be a high end property tower. Ohtani Towers.
️️Angels!️️
It’s time for Billy Eppler to come out and say the Mets are taking Justin Verlander off the market. If they plan to contend in 2024, it doesn’t make sense to trade any more players signed past this year where they would have to significantly pay down contracts for prospects that aren’t going to factor into any effort next year. I’d also argue that it doesn’t pay to trade players with options for next year if the return is going to be minimal. Raley should be kept with his affordable $6M option. I believe Ottavino has an option too. Canha has an option too. If they don’t have any intention of picking it up, they should trade him but I still don’t see the point in paying down any more contracts if it’s just going to continue to add to their draft and international free agent penalties. Pham is the most likely to go and it wouldn’t upset me if he were the only one to go.
Yes, I’m a delusional fan, but after seeing what the Phillies did last year, fighting their way to the last wildcard spot and tearing it up in the postseason is not out of the question. This is a team that started the season 15-7, I believe, then rebounded from a horrendous June with a decent July (14-9).
If they plan to contend in 2024, it doesn’t make sense to trade any more players signed past this year
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I said the same thing about Scherzer. They paid him down to about $16M/year. Even assuming that Scherzer is a #3, they still need to replace him. It feels like they are just going to make another mistake in acquiring a replacement.
Tony Gonsolin and Michael Grove — only package available for the cheater
I’d love to package Stanton and Cole to LAD for their player development staff and a few prospects.
Dodgers management will not go over the third tier luxury tax threshold. With that said, there is only so much they can do. With the plethora of injuries and subpar performances by Urias & Gonsolin, is getting another pitcher propel them deep into the playoffs?
I watch all their games. I have my doubts that they’ll make it to the NLCS. They seem more poised to make a run at the World Series next year. Perhaps they should keep their farm system in tact.
If they trade Verlander they have to get a young pitcher already in the league to replace him. The article mentioned Bobby Miller which is obviously not happening but that’s the kind of return they need. They just can’t lose another of next year’s starters without a replacement
I think the Mets are over valuing Verlander. The mets gave him a massive contract and no want out from underneath it but they want too much for him. At 40 years old with 2 more years a lot of time for Verlander to become less quality pitcher. I think the Mets will keep him and regret it.
I think it more the Mets gauging the value of the market and seeing a valuable chip turn into something (or fizzle out and on to next year)
Here’s the deal:
Mets send Verlander to Dodgers and agree that if Verlander exercises his 35 million option in 2025, Mets pay it.
Dodgers send Chris Taylor, Gavin Stone, and Frasso or Ryan.
Or Mets add 10 million, don’t take back Taylor and Dodgers add Hurt or Kopp.
Or if Mets not psyched to buy lower on Stone, replace him with Sheehan, take Frasso or Ryan out of the deal and maybe put Knack in instead.
Are the Dodgers that poor they can’t pay for their players? The Mets aren’t paying down his contract or they won’t trade him.
To get good prospects back. I think whether the Mets trade him or not – they value him more than Scherzer- has a lot to do with what we don’t know – what is Verlander now telling the Mets behind the scenes. If he is now begging out, the Mets might accommodate and try to maximize prospect return. My proposal also leaves open that the chance that the Mets pay zero money – if Verlander does not exercise his player option for 2025.
Why didn’t he just stay with the Astros?? I know it’s because he wanted to get that last but of the 40 or so million he’s making smh
“I know it’s because he wanted to get that last but of the 40 or so million he’s making smh”
That’s not why he took the Mets offer as NYS taxes take away the extra money he got by signing with the Mets. Maybe it’s family related, maybe he wanted to play with certain players, but it wasn’t strictly the money because he might actually make less with the Mets when you consider taxes.
Mets and Dodgers fans talk a lot.
Verlander rocks and is your best option. Here’s a big game pitcher. I don’t think the Mets will trade him to be honest as they plan to compete next year.
Having said that you should trade Michael Busch and Landon Knack to the Tigers for Erod and a bullpen arm. Why? Because he is a good pitcher who xan help you win now, if you don’t then Zaidi might well grab him from old pal Scott Harris and adtly because I am bored of waiting for a Tigers trade! Busch is not Lou Whittaker and Knack is not Jack Morris, to use some Tiger’s analogies, so dont overvalue your prospects.
HAL2000 the trade simulator will tell you that Knack alone is worth the whole 1984 Tigers team. Don’t listen, HAL tells lies!
The big game pitcher who’s 1 and 6 in the World Series, with a 5.63 ERA?
Bumgarner is available and I’m sure his WS stats are incredible!!
I don’t think Verlander wants to be traded. But let’s say he does. The Dodger’s need him and he’s got his best chance at another ring with them. I thinks he stays with the Mets, gets hurt again and cashes him checks from here to Cooperstown.
First you need to get to the playoffs and then the world series! To do that you heed people who know how to win, which is him.
So the Mets could feasibily “Get the Knack”. Sorry, I had to do it.
My, my, my, my….