Giants outfielder Michael Conforto reached 350 plate appearances on the season during Sunday’s game, and in doing so vested a provision in his contract that converts the second season of his two-year, $36MM contract into a player option. He’ll now have the right to decline that player option, valued at $18MM, and opt back into free agency this offseason.
Whether Conforto, 30, ultimately opts out of his deal will depend on his final couple months of play. As things stand, he’s had a roughly average season at the plate, batting .241/.331/.401 (102 wRC+) with 13 homers, 10 doubles, four stolen bases, a 10.5% walk rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate. As recently as late May, it looked like the longtime Mets slugger was trending toward an opt-out, but his bat has gone cold as the weather has warmed. Conforto was hitting .250/.347/.464 through his first 196 plate appearances, but he batted just .228/.303/.324 over his next 152 trips to the plate.
Conforto’s season-long numbers are respectable — but they’re also a far cry from the .265/.369/.495 slash he turned in across 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20. The former first-round pick might’ve commanded a nine-figure deal in free agency had he sustained that output for one more season, but Conforto’s production slipped to .232/.344/.384 through 125 games in 2021. He turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets at the end of that season, still hopeful of securing a multi-year deal, but an offseason shoulder injury required surgery that kept Conforto out of action for the entire 2022 season. He didn’t sign with a club until the 2022-23 offseason when he inked his current deal with the Giants.
Though Conforto performed at a star-caliber level during that 2017-20 peak, he’s now turned in tepid .237/.337/.392 slash over his past 827 plate appearances — his 2021 and 2023 campaigns combined. He’s still walking at a strong clip, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate remain largely unchanged. However, he’s hitting the ball on the ground at the highest rate of his career (46.9%), and this season’s 17% line-drive rate is the lowest of his career. The plus defensive marks he regularly generated early in his career have also deteriorated; he’s sporting negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-3) so far in 2023.
The upcoming free agent class skews heavily toward pitchers, with very few impact bats available. A strong finish that looks more like Conforto’s peak years could position him as one of the better bats on the market, joining the likes of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. As far as pure corner outfielders, Conforto would be up against Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Joc Pederson, among others.
I hope he doesn’t opt out. His decision making proceeds has cost him tons of money. 18 m is nothing to sneeze at.
What’s it to you?
I don’t like these opt out clauses that Zaidi is so prone to write. Kevin Gausman could still ge a Giant. Now Conforto?
Outside of one hot stretch in May, Conforto has been nothing special at all. I mean, Sabols numbers are pretty close to his in less at bats. If he opts out, he leaves. No tears shed.
You can’t assume Gausman would have ever signed with SF in 2020 without the opt-out. There’s no guarantee he would have signed with the Giants initially if Zaidi hadn’t offered it to begin with. Sometimes teams have to make concessions to sign the guys they want.
Zaidi talked about it in the off-season and mentioned that eventually he wants to ditch the opt outs but often in order to get any quality players he is left to do that as SF isn’t a desirable place for a lot of players to play due to offensive production, taxes, culture (from players in the south and Midwest especially) etc. It is also why he has spent so much time on the farm
Sounds like giants fans shouldn’t expect to ever have a team of star level talents and dynamic players to watch then. Sad days man…
Ha ha. Correct. Nothing sadder than the tears of the Giant doomers.
I wouldn’t say that at all – what you shouldn’t expect is big free agent signings. Stuff is going to come from the farm and has already started matos and luciano ahave looked good – bailey is one of the top catchers in the league, webb is homegrown, beck and winn are looking good and there is more on the way
I like them because it makes the player be more motivated.
Yes. Same. If a team has to give to get a player, I’d rather they include an opt out over guaranteeing an extra year. 2 with an opt out is better than 3 guaranteed. Flexibility is good.
He is the least clutch player in all of baseball. He is the sole reason why in 2021 the Mets didn’t make the playoffs. Struck out in every clutch situation, only hit well when the Mets were eliminated from contention. Look at when he came back from his hamstring injury, the Mets lost 80% of their next 30 games all because he batted 3rd or 4th and couldnt drive in any runs unless we were down or up by 6 or 7 runs. Awful hitter but decent fielder
More hyperbole. Least clutch in ALL OF BASEBALL? Come on man.
Unfortunately for you, this statement is pretty easily proven wrong.
His clutch stats were exactly on par for what he did that entire season, the majority of his RBIs that year came in close games (within three runs), hardly struck out at all during late and close games and his two best months were the last two months of the season.
.947 OPS with RISP. You know these stats are readily available right?
@vtadave You really think you made an arguement there huh? Bottom of the 9th, down by 10 runs, man on second, 2 outs, Conforto hits a single, his ops with Risp goes up. How does that tell me how clutch he is? Look up his performance in games decides by 2 runs or less compared to his stats of 5 runs or more when leading/trailing, its mind blowing
Still doesn’t sound like the least clutch in all of baseball, does it? See? Hyperbole.
A.) every player hits at a higher average during blow outs. Blow out typically mean a pitcher doesn’t have it and after he get relieved you’re facing low leverage relievers.
B.) 39 of Confortos 55 RBIs came within 2 runs
C.) 7-9th innings were his best innings stat wise.
D.) his late and close stats were very good, weak batting average but strong on base, strong slugging and low strike out percentage.
He had a bad year but that bad year was reflected the same pretty much through any situation. He wasn’t awful in clutch at bats.
@LFGMets
“when he came back from his hamstring injury, the Mets lost 80% of their next 30 games all because he batted 3rd or 4th …”
He came back from hamstring on 6/22/21,
The Mets played 4-4 the rest of the month.
The Mets were 14-13 in July.
August-Sept is when they were really awful. His high leverage stats all year were horrible.
@cadagan I’m surprised they went 4-4 when he returned, I vividly remember them losing 12 of 13 vs the Dodgers and Giants once he returned to the lineup
There is no way to measure that. By real outlook, the “least clutch player” would be the worst hitting player in the league.
Conforto was fine as a signing, just not as your main free agent haul. He’s league average. He hasn’t had a good year and really shouldn’t have expected to. He’s whatever. You need to have at least 5-6 guys who are better hitters than him to compete.
If you get Ohtani next off-season, Conforto wouldn’t sting so much. Though the big ticket signing has been promised a few years in a row.
The Giants are going to go as far as their rookies take them. It’s nice to see them get younger, along with their farm starting to produce MLB talent.
Anyone know what Farhan is going to do to improve their roster? Dumpster dive or a big splash acquisition?
Considering that Farhan was beaten out on acquiring Ahmed Rosario and Kike Hernandez, I’ll hedge towards the dumpster.
Do a little research please. 4 acquisitions this year then let go. 4. Dumpster diving rhetoric is junk anymore. Let it go. Rosario and Hernandez. Whoopity effin doo. If you dipsticks want to lose sleep over being “beaten out” for those 2 try melatonin.
If Rosario and Hernandez are really what you are looking for, I’m glad you’re not the GM.
Too bad Verlander wouldn’t waive to go to SF, he would make them a much better team, (they’re already ok), they have the payroll space, and it would take the pressure off trying to outbid the Dodgers for Ohtani.
Beat it, he’s nothing special so don’t lock into a long yerm
Has Farhan received a new contract yet?
Sure hope he doesn’t. The giants will never win a trophy with him in charge.
The idea that a guy hitting .250 with 13 home runs is worth 18 M is still ludicrous to me, that’s all star level money in my book. I’m not saying it’s not the norm now, just that I think it shouldn’t be, for that level of production 8 figures seems ridiculous.
Conforto will almost certainly not opt out; a lot of teams have guys at AA& AAA who profile just as good, at a much cheaper yearly rate. There’s No way anyone will give him a yearly rate at anything close to his current deal.
If the Giants still b want Judge they can have him. Make the Yankees an offer before deadline expires
There are teams that will want Judge. Its the contract they don’t want.
Yup, I’m not sure why it is even a discussion. he made the minimum PAs, but has still been nicked up, and has a 0.3 bWAR. He’s a decent target, but no one is coming close to $18M. He’s better off staying, getting in the best shape of his life, and trying to re-enter the market after the 2024 season.
as one of the better bats on the market, joining the likes of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.
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I almost missed this one. It looks like MLB-R has downgraded Chapman from a “massive contract” to merely “one of the better bats”.
Very good.