The Diamondbacks are among the teams to have shown interest in White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a sensible match, given that Giolito is one of the top trade candidates this summer and the D’Backs have a need in their rotation.
The White Sox are 41-57, which places them nine games back of the division lead even in the weak American League Central. The playoff odds at FanGraphs have them down to a 1.5% chance of leapfrogging the Tigers, Guardians and Twins in order to take the crown. With just over a week to go until the August 1 deadline, it seems fair to expect them to make a few deals aimed at improving their chances in future seasons. Recent reporting has indicated the club is willing to consider deals on all players except for Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez, Dylan Cease and Andrew Vaughn.
Giolito would be one of their most logical trade chips, given that he is an impending free agent and a potential playoff starter for an acquiring club. MLBTR recently placed him in the #1 slot on a list of top deadline trade candidates, a reflection of both his likelihood to be traded and his appeal to other clubs.
The righty made 72 starts over the 2019 to 2021 seasons, posting a 3.47 earned run average in that time. That figure spiked to 4.90 last year but Giolito has brought it back down 3.96 here in 2023. Across those five seasons, he’s struck out 28.5% of hitters while walking 8.2%. He’s making $10.4MM this year but only about $3.35MM will be left to be paid out at the time of the deadline.
Just about any club in need of starting pitching should have at least some interest in Giolito and he’s already been connected to the Dodgers, while the Reds have reportedly had discussions with the White Sox about their starters, which presumably includes Giolito.
There’s plenty of logic in the Diamondbacks throwing their hat in the ring, given the state of their own rotation. The club has featured a top-heavy rotation this year, with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly doing strong work at the front. Kelly is on the injured list right now due to a calf issue and could return next week, but even if that proves to be the case, that still leaves the D’Backs with plenty of questions behind the Gallen-Kelly duo.
Tommy Henry has a 3.89 ERA but it’s possible he’s lucky to have it, as his .276 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate are both on the lucky side of average. His 5.07 FIP and 5.23 SIERA suggest some regression may be in store. Ryne Nelson has made 20 starts but with a 4.82 ERA in that time. Zach Davies has a 7.38 ERA for the year and is on the injured list for a second time. Prospect Brandon Pfaadt has been given six starts but has a 9.82 ERA in those.
Despite those rotation issues, the Snakes are 54-43 and currently tied for the top Wild Card spot in the National League, in addition to sitting just two games back of the Dodgers for the division lead. Adding some pitching for the final months of the postseason race would be a logical move, something that general manager Mike Hazen admitted last month.
Although Giolito will be highly in demand, the acquisition cost in terms of the trade return might not be exorbitant since he’s a rental, at least compared to a similar pitcher with multiple years of control. Hazen also recently said that the club will likely be “aggressive” but not “reckless” at the deadline, in terms of which younger players they are willing to give up. Perhaps going after an impending free agent like Giolito would fit that plan.
Whether the Diamondbacks are willing to be aggressive enough to land a pitcher like Giolito remains to be seen. There have already been a few clubs publicly connected to him and there are surely plenty of others who have called the White Sox. For any club that comes up short, some of the other rental starters that could be available include Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen and many others.
RunDMC
Can he close?
sufferforsnakes
Right? I was throwing things during the meltdown yesterday. Yeah, not very mature, but it felt good.
Hemlock
> I was throwing things … yesterday.
Can you close?
RunDMC
I was throwing those same things back atcha when The Church (Iglesias) of Raisel tried to give it right back to you.
Personally, would love to see Lucas or Jack Flaherty reunited with high school teammate, Fried. Harvard Westlake East?
acoss13
D-backs fans: What would you trade for Giolito?
scottaz
acoss
Looks like the White Sox two biggest needs are RF and 2b, with 3b and SS not far behind. Anderson might rebound the rest of this season, so maybe just RF, 2b and 3b
If I were Dbacks GM, I’d offer a package of OF Dominic Fletcher, 3b Emmanuel Rivera and 2b Ryan Bliss AAA.
IronBallsMcGinty
Actually, their infield looks better with Burger and Remillard as opposed to Moncada and Andrus.
realsox
I agree. The Sox have definite needs, and it’s a mistake to think the Sox will trade him just because you throw out three minor leaguers. How about some major league talent? Not for a rental? Well, t
scottaz
realsox
Since you don’t know much about the Dbacks,
Rivera is basically the 3b starter for the Dbacks hitting .290 so far this year.
Fletcher has hit .301 for the Dbacks so far this year. He is the Dbacks #14 Prospect.
Only Bliss is still in the minors. He is the Dbacks #29 Prospect.
James123
i could see them getting MLB ready talent if not MLB talent.
I could see the Os offer Urias (GG last year with several years of team control, and now a spare part) or Mateo (has shown glimpses but never consistent) along with someone like Norby who is also now an MLB ready spare part. I do not think anyone else would even come close to offering more than urias and norby (and could see the WS throwing in some further out prospects to balance and allow the Os to stock the lower minors- since their system is littered with high minors and not as much in the low minors)
how about Urias and Norby for Giolito and Ryan Burrowes. (i hat to check since i would have struggled to think of anyone in the chisox system past montgomery- man that is a bad farm system; so they may just want a boat load of FV40-45 guys, something again the Os are flush with).
If they want volume of meh upper minors prospects (that would honestly be top 15 prospects in the Chisox system on return)- Haskin, Prieto and Denoyer for Giolito would be a great return- and honestly all spare parts for the Os. Prieto is in AAA, and as a middle INF is behind Gunner, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and holliday for those 2 spots (Westburg is at 3b now, but the thinking is Gunner moves over there sooner rather than later), Denoyer can be swapped out with about 5 other FV 40-45 pitching prospects in AAA (i doubt they move Povich, Hall or Mcdermott). Haskins is the biggest loss- but maybe swap him out for Stowers/McKenna.
DieSoxWhiteFan
I understand the frustration with Moncada and his balloon of a contract, but Reimilard hitting .300 has nothing to his future value outside of a utility man with potential of becoming a platoon.. He’s as much the future as Leury Garcia.. which for the Sox could be a 9 year starter.
acoss13
That’s not bad, definitely like your offer for OF Dominic Fletcher. The White desperately need a RF, and I’d take the infield prospects too. Need a 2B badly as well.
James123
that is why they line up well with the Os who can offer Norby or Ortiz, but may want a kicker (low minors pitching?) with giolito. I think the Os are higher on Ortiz (since he has gotten some run in the bigs this year), but both are top 75 prospects in all of baseball, and i am not sure anyone else would dangle a prospect of that level for giolito.
I assume for the D-backs Jones and Lawler would be non starters in a trade. Pfaafdt would be interesting since he has been a mess in the bigs thus far, but would likely have more value than the rental…. past that it would be more of a volume offer vs. single best prospect
twtw28
Its funny an O’s fan talking how bad sox farm is and it does suck maybe if we pick in top 2-3 for next 20 years are system will be as loaded as yours
twtw28
Maybe is where like the orilies and finish 30 games under 22 out of 25 years and pick in top 3 are system will be as loaded
Selkies
I’d definitely be interested in Pfaadt. I know he has struggled but that’s the case for so many young pitchers. I doubt Dbacks fans would do this without us adding a bit more than Gio.
Selkies
This is what I’d like to know. It’s tough to figure out what’s what in their farm system after graduating so many guys this past season.
scottaz
The Dbacks are pursuing one of those too!
Xerostomia
Dbacks need more than a starter, A front line starter is nice to have, but they need a high leverage bullpen arm (or 2), and another thumper in the middle of the lineup that is consiistent all the time, and not hot and cold like Walker and Guerriel.
Position player wise, we need offensive upgrades at 3B, CF, C, and sometimes even at SS.
The team has too many holes, and we are not ready to make a dent in the playoffs. Unless Giolitto is going to sign an extension, I want the Dbacks to continue to develop the young talent, and let Henry, Nelson and even Pfaadt get MLB experience.
I still think that 2024 and beyond is the real contension window for the Dbacks. We are somewhat ‘lucky’ this year to be where we are and the teams record will likley match their Pythag (currently +20 run differential) by season end.
sufferforsnakes
They’d be fine at catcher if they quit playing Carson Kelly so much.
The defense provided by Thomas saves runs. That’s important.
At least they addressed 3B in the draft this year.
James123
Elias Diaz may be available, but who knows what the Rockies will do at any deadline….. knowing them they resign him for more than any sane team would and choose to not trade him.
tasteefreeze
Contention windows have a way of slamming shut after one season or two. The White Sox are a fine example of that. Squeaked in 2020, knocked out first round of 2021, and 2 years of suck.
stymeedone
Please! The White Sox are their own special case of ineptitude. Don’t confuse them with the norm.
James123
not really ineptitude… no one expected Moncada to regress to virtually worthless, anderson to just have a mess of a season out of nowhere, and Eloy to go from the next big thumper to 12hr thus far (but honestly not bad)…
This team should not have been bad, and if Anderson was as good as the last several years, they would have won another 3 games, and if moncada had just stayed where he was 2 years ago there is another 2… and 5 wins put them 1 game out (the are only 6 games out)
nrd1138
Yes but you overlook one detail, the Sox would still be around 10 games under .500. So fans were hoping to squeak into the playoffs.. Why? to get laughed out of them again?!
People should be far more concerned with the record of this team and not the standings..Its that kind of attitude that gets the fans teams like this. This team screams reminders of when Ventura was mismanaging this club that took them to this rebuild in the first place.
jonathon
I’m sorry, what? The only position the Dbacks need an upgrade at on your list of 3B, CF, C and SS is 3B.
Since his recall Alek Thomas is batting .282; McCarthy is batting .304 since his recall. Corbin Carroll is doing his thing.
Catcher is set for years to come with Gaby Moreno. While I don’t agree with how much Luvello is playing Carson Kelly, I get it to a certain extent for this year.
Shortstop is locked up by Perdomo until Lawler is ready.
Xerostomia
Not incorrect, but the fact is that McCarthy has a season OPS+90 (and career OPS+106). which is not that great for corner outfield.
Thomas has a season OPS+ 79, career OPS+77. That is not good at all.
Moreno has a season OPS+90. Kelly has a season OPS+27. Luvello has stated that they will play 50:50.
Perdomo has a season OPS+119, because he had an OPS+171 April. Since then it has been 71-May, 92 June, 47 July. Ahmed has a season OPS+ 72.
That is 4 positions with significantly below average hitting.
I like all of them, but with offensive output like that from 4 spots in the batting lineup it is not going to win many playoff games, especially against the best pitchers in the league.
sufferforsnakes
Yet they’re tied for the 6th best record in baseball. Go figure…..
Xerostomia
Pythag has them at 50-47. The Dbacks are really ‘lucky’ to be 11 games over 0,500. Most of that is because they had one of the easiest schedules in the MLB prior to the all star break.
SoS will be one of the toughest for the rest of the season. I suspect the final W-L record will be more in line with the Pythag by end of season.
sufferforsnakes
Bill James ruined the fun of the game. Oh, and his creations aren’t the be all, end all.
Angels & NL West
Xero, it looks like you discounted Perdomo’s OPS+ because he was hot in April, but didn’t give McCarthy and Thomas credit for being better since their recalls after poor results in April. If you want to focus on Perdomo’s most recent results, you should do the same for McCarthy and Thomas.
Moreno is a young player with nice upside and only 300+ career PAs. The Dbacks will need a solid glove first backup catcher for the future, but thats not a priority this deadline.
Xerostomia
I broke down Perdomo because he has played for the Dbacks all season. McCarthy and Thomas have been up and down, and such have barely 200 PA this season each.
You are correct that both of them are hitting much better in June-July. Problem is that Gurriel, Walker and even Carroll have been slumping during this time frame.
At least Marte is still hitting.
drasco036
The Cubs are defiantly not selling yet, and as much as I would hate to see him go, Bellinger would good in the Diamondbacks outfield, haunting the Dodgers for not believing him the rest of the season.
DanUgglasRing
Giants need to make some noise if this happens. No excuse not get a deal done while the division is this tight and the snakes are making moves.
Old York
Only 10% better than league average and a 4.56 FIP compared to his ERA of 3.96? He’s getting luck from his defense and it isn’t very well ranked this year.
stymeedone
4.56 FIP is a mythical projection to keep the fantasy players happy, and has no bering on outcomes. ERA is reality. Give the guy credit. Even you are saying his teams bad defence is helping him? No. Its not.
Old York
He has a lower ERA than FIP, meaning his defense is helping him, despite a weak defense overall. His FIP is his actual control over walks, homeruns and HBP and strikeouts. According to Fangraphs, a FIP of 4.40 is below average and 4.70 is poor, so he’s not even average. I wouldn’t pay up for this guy. He’s washed up.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
As a White Sox fan, I love hearing about each new interested team. I don’t really understand it since his season is ok but not great, but let the bidding begin!
jamesa-2
While his season has not been great, if he went to AZ, he would be replacing the 2-headed suckage of Bumgarner (now released) and Davies (even worse). Anything remotely approaching league average would be an instant and overwhelming upgrade. Despite his season struggles this year, Giolito is still better than that.
James123
There are several contending teams with weak mid to late rotation arms right now. Here tehy note how he would be the #3 guy on the Dbacks, for the Os it is the same (after wells and bradish), Cincy- 3 or 4 (depending what you think of lively),
The new way teams re-build is still generally to draft hitters and trade for pitching when the hitting is ready- so they all have hitting and a backlog of hitting in the high minors.
IronBallsMcGinty
Too bad he couldn’t be traded for a head trainer or player development personnel.
Fred K. Burke
I’ll stick with my original trade scenario. That is Lucas Giolito and Gavin Sheets to the Orioles for a couple of decent prospects.
keysox
I would trade Sheets for a dozen baseballs. They don’t have to be new
James123
define decent.
I think the 3 options are: Just norby, Just Ortiz, or Prieto/stowers/and other FV 40 guys. Norby or Ortiz may require something else, but those two have maximum value now, so they need moved this year so pick up longer term guys so you have bullets in the chamber in 2-3 years when this is mid window.
desertdawg
This team is really short on pitching, the whole staff besides Gallen is questionable for a playoff push. They have been playing the last two years without a bullpen, they keep picking off the scrap heap for closers. They have been playing the bullpen by committee and match up. That usually don’t work for a playoff team. I think the next week will tell if Hazen goes for it or settles for maybe selling off a couple of pieces for the 2024 season. But it is going to require acquiring at least 2 starters and 3 bullpen pieces..
James123
bullpen is always easy to solve at the deadline if you are willing to give up anything.
last year- David Robertson, Micheal Fulmer, trever Rosenthal, Mychal givens, went for FV 35-40 prospects (likely future fringe big leaguers), Bass and Pop combined to get a FV 45 (Groshans, a likely fringe every day player), Lopez went for a FV 40 (povich) and what looked like a failed young big league releiver (Yennier cano) and 2 young lottery tickets.
Super elite arms (like Hader) will go for more- but a mid range bullpen worth of arms any team could easily find takers in exchange for guys on the back end of the teams top 30 prospects.
Rickover50
With erod , stroman and Lorenzen there is no way this guy should be near the top of available starters
jamesa-2
There are about 10 teams looking for starters right now, so Giolito remains intriguing.
iverbure
Seems like a way to ensure the dodgers pay more for him. Dbacks seem like they’re a year ahead of schedule. Should be focused on acquiring something that could help this year but more importantly next year. Options are probably limited. Dbacks best path to improving is internally. Their best prospects gotta improve further and hit the ground running when they join the mlb club.
scottaz
iverbure
I don’t think the Dbacks are simply driving up the price, nor assuming the big spending clubs always get all of the top rentals every trade deadline.
This year, the Dbacks accelerated through the idea of seriously contending in 2024 and beyond, to being serious contenders to go deep into the playoffs this year. They stood toe to toe and mostly outplayed the Dodgers, Giants and Padres one vs. one and in the NLW standings. All 4 ball clubs are deeply flawed in at least part of their rosters, so which ever team(s) make the right moves at the trade deadline will play into October.
Dbacks management has committed to “win” the trade deadline sweepstakes against those teams, and has the trade assets to “win” without crippling their long term goals. Elsewhere, I have listed at least a dozen major league and/or AAA trade assets that could be used without doing any damage at all to their long range prospects for competing at a high level. And I listed 10 internal options for improving the team this year and into the future, suggesting the Dbacks do NOT trade any of those top 10.
So I think using some tradeable assets to obtain high level rentals this year is a totally feasible strategy.
James123
I do not think that if they hold onto Lawler and Jones, they have the prospects to seriously land a guy who would be more of an inning eater with a 4.5ish ERA. This is a team is likely to trade for 2 mid range bullpen arms (guys with an era in the 3-3.3 range) and maybe a 3b rental.
Great haul for them at the deadline would be Candelario and Finnegan (all one trade) and they likely could get it done with a hodgepodge of mid level prospects (keeping Lawler, jones, walston, de los santos and sims)
scottaz
Dbacks are also shopping for a Closer and maybe a right handed bat with some power
laswagn
I would think it’s easier to write: any team that is a playoff contender is interested in Giolito.
stymeedone
But it wouldn’t get as many responses.
dazedatnoon
Giolito and Graveman package?
scottaz
Xerostomia
As usual, I like most of what you wrote here.
On the first paragraph….the problem with finding a thumper who is consistent all the time is that they don’t exist, unless they are superstars, and therefore an unrealistic expectation for Dbacks acquisition. They are looking for another thumper who will get hot,hopefully when Walker and Gurriel have cooled off,and Vice versa.
On paragraph 2, I wouldn’t add SS to this list. Perdomo is actually exactly what the Dbacks need right now and Lawler plus Alexander are coming soon!
And, On paragraphs 3 & 4…I think the Dbacks can compete this year AND the next several years even more so. And I think all 4 top NLW teams are as deeply flawed as the Dbacks, so I see no reason not to go for it aggressively this year, not recklessly, but controlled aggression.
Xerostomia
The sad part is that JD Martinez was available this last off season and would have solved some issues.
I agree though, there is probably no one they can realistically get, unless the Cardinals are wiling to trade Arenado (could solve multiple issues at once), but I doubt that franchise will do that.
Pitching side, my bigger concern is that Gallen is not that great when not in one of his scoreless streaks. He still significantly beats his xERA, by almost 1 run (he has done that for most of his career). This year he is having issues on the road as well. M Kelly is more consistent game to game, but I don’t consider Kelly an ideal candidate to go against other playoff teams #1.
Bullpen we know is an issue.
Thus, if you want to move some players from the 40 man roster (fringe prospects, and players that you might have to expose to rule 40 draft) to get short term rentals, then by all means go for it. On the flip side, Giolitto and his ERA+111 at most is a #3 for the Dbacks, and will not move the needle come playoff time. I would not move any ‘decent’ prospects for that.
scottaz
Xerostomia
The 2022 Astros won the World Series with 4 of the 8 position players batting between .190-.207 in the postseason. A fifth batted .231. So offensively the other 3 carried the Astros to the WS title, batting .347, .345 and .294. Looking back further, much the same is true of the Champions and their opponents.
That illustrates two points I think:
1. Pitching dominates, as you pointed out, in the Post Season. The winners usually have 3 dominant starters and a lights out bullpen/Closer/backend of the bullpen
2. You don’t need 8 superstar position players, you need 3 or 4 to carry the team/get hot, and the rest to play great defense and occasionally contribute.
I think the Dbacks already have #2, but #1 is a work in process. So I’m focused on the pitching staff and content with our offense’s ability to succeed in the Post-Season. In fact, I think the Dbacks have excess offense they can trade from and still succeed in the Post-Season.
The Dbacks need Giolito or better to shore up the starting rotation in the playoffs. Henry and Nelson have made great strides this year, but they are still inconsistent rookies.
The Dbacks need at least 1, but probably 2 backend of the bullpen arms, preferably one is a legitimate Closer.
If they use tradeable assets at the deadline and plug those 2 or 3 holes, I think they can go all the way to the World Series in 2023. I know that’s optimistic, but the young position players’ growth this year has convinced me they can get hot and get lucky and go that deep into the playoffs.
Xerostomia
Like always, great insight.
I am not expecting all star production everywhere (well, it would be nice, but we are not the Braves…lol), but I want consistency.
I want McCarthy to consistently have good AB’s, bunt steal, take more walks etc. I want Thomas and Perdomo to do the same.
I want Walker and Gurriel type players to have a ‘floor’ in that they will not have months where they have an OPS below 50 but instead rarely go below 90.
I want Marte and Carroll to all season hit the ball hard, they are the core players (a little unfair for Carroll given his age).
If that happens, then I would be confident come playoff time that this team can make a dent at least offensively.
For example. the 2015 Dbacks were a really good offensive team, If we had that offense, and current pitching staff, I make a move for a starter and bullpen arm. The 2023 Dbacks offense is too hot and cold for my likking.
stymeedone
@xeros
Maybe there is a flaw in xERA, since it’s consistently off by over 25%.
Xerostomia
Maybe, The arguement is that if a pitcher conisistent beats xERA etc, then the model is wrong. In 2021 his xERA and ERA were close and he had an ERA+ 98. Perhaps there were some injury issues.
My concern with Gallen is that when he is not in one of his scoreless streaks, his xERA is actually relatively accurate to his production. If you remove his scoreless streak last year and this year, and look at all his other games, he is an above average pitcher, but not an ACE and his expected results do match.
desertdawg
Is anyone really sold on Thomas and McCarthy?? I just don’t see where the D’backs can put all their hope that these two will be solid quality starters, yes, they do have the glove, but will their bats come around, so tired of Thomas and his 4-3 routine. I really think he thinks he is a power hitter, and McCarthy is basically in the same boat. I would like to see maybe offering those two + lower prospects for a good closer. Watched tonight ending of the game and Diaz came in on 10 pitches and closed the ninth out for the Reds. And who does the D’backs have no one a committee that is not very good.
SFBay314
Giants fans have shown interest in Lucas Giolito. Also of interest, signing a pitcher to more than a 2 year deal with an opt-out after 1.
NoNeckWilliams
The Sox need catchers. Not one, but two.
mohoney
Lucas Giolito and Kenyan Middleton for Alek Thomas
stymeedone
Rentals rarely get Major League returns, even when packaged, but it don’t hurt to ask.
mohoney
It certainly would solve the RF problem for Rebuild 2.0 if done properly.
Useless Benintendi is signed for a whopping 4 more years through 2027 with his sub-.100 ISO in LF. Robert has CF locked down under club control through 2027 as well. And with fewer than 2 years of service time to his name when this season ends, Thomas would have all the time in the world to develop into an everyday RF in his home town.
Everything else would still be on fire, but at least the outfield would be stable.
Yoyosoxsox
That sounds terrible
nrd1138
All any team has to do with a dunce like Hahn (Sox GM) is to offer up guys with plenty of ‘potential’, that will get his attention as he apparently does not focus on any results… I have ZERO faith in this Sox org now. I had faith in Hahn at one point, but not anymore, even if he gets ‘good’ players, there is little to no development in the Sox org (and Im not the one saying it, MLB execs are, apparently), their conditioning and health staff is a complete joke (never mind their inept coaching dept). Anyone doing well on the Sox is doing so because they are that talented already. Case in point: Giolito. Guy was good after making an adjustment a few years ago (on advice from outside the existing team coaching staff). Now? Teams have adjusted to him but sleepy Katz (who ironically helped him to find his stuff) in the dugout is barely wake enough to notice. Never mind Grifol, the guy reminds me of Ventura managing, and no that’s not a compliment. Plus after they stabbed Renteria in the back, I doubt this org is going to get any coach worth a darn to come in and manage this club. (Never mind the bottom basement dollars the ‘chairman’ throws around). Oh yeah, I forgot about Hahn abyssmal track record in FA signings as well. Just a mess.
Now the Sox are holding on guys that, if they were smart, you move while their healthy (which is rare in the Sox org) and doing fairly well (well until Gio’s and Lynn’s last starts.. yeesh) as their value is only going to drop. The saving grace is I doubt either do as bad as they do on this club, as half the time they do bad because the dunces behind them cannot field their positions (that is when half of their players are out of their natural position).