While the Rays are typically known for making careful, calculated moves in order to maximize long-term success, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times discussed yesterday the possibility of Tampa making a splash in the trade market prior to the trade deadline on August 1 by pursuing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, on whom the Angels are expected to consider offers.
Such a move would be a major departure from the club’s typical model, though president of baseball operations Erik Neander and his front office have shown a willingness to be more aggressive in recent years. Trading promising right-hander Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz ahead of the 2021 trade deadline, extending Wander Franco on an 11-year deal that offseason, and pursuing Freddie Freeman in free agency are all signs from the relatively recent past that the Rays could be willing to take bigger swings in their pursuit of a World Series championship, and there’s no acquisition that would move the needle more than Ohtani.
While the club certainly has the pieces necessary to swing a deal for Ohtani between a farm system that ranks 8th in the majors per Fangraphs and a deep group of position players at the big league level, Topkin cautions that the Rays are highly unlikely to enter a bidding war for Ohtani as the club wouldn’t be able to retain the superstar in free agency. Between that unwillingness to beat out other potential suitors like the Yankees and Dodgers for Ohtani and the considerable chance that the Angels don’t move him at all, as they’re currently sitting just one game under .500 and five games back of a Wild Card berth, Ohtani in a Rays uniform certainly seems unlikely.
More from around the AL East…
- Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins exited yesterday’s game with right quad tightness, as noted by MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Mullins is currently considered day-to-day, and the club will check in with him today to determine the severity of the injury. Manager Brandon Hyde expressed optimism following yesterday’s game, telling reporters (including Kubatko) that the club is “hoping we caught a break there.” Fortunately for the Orioles, they boast a deep group of position players that can help cover for Mullins in the event he misses time, though properly replacing a strong defensive center fielder with a 123 wRC+ is easier said than done.
- Sticking with the Orioles, the club has been taking things slowly with first baseman Ryan Mountcastle as he returns from a month on the injured list due to vertigo. While Mountcastle has looked good in limited time since coming off the IL, with a single and a double in five trips to the plate, Kubatko notes that his ability to reclaim a full-time role has been further complicated by the emergence of Ryan O’Hearn as a legitimate starting option. In 156 plate appearances this season, O’Hearn has slashed an impressive .310/.359/.528 with a wRC+ of 143, albeit in a strictly platoon role. Though Mountcastle currently seems poised to see most of his starts come against southpaws, Hyde indicated that setup may not be permanent, telling reporters that he’s “sure” Mountcastle will get some starts against same-handed pitching and that “we’ll see how the second half goes.”
- Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano exited the All-Star game last week due to lower back tightness and has since undergone an MRI, as relayed by SportsCentre’s Scott Mitchell. Manager John Schneider told reporters, including Mitchell, that the imaging came back clean and Romano is currently considered day-to-day. Romano has established himself as one of the league’s best closers over the past four seasons, pitching to a 2.21 ERA (190 ERA+) and a 3.01 FIP while racking up 87 saves. In the event the right-hander is unavailable, Erik Swanson and Yimi Garcia appear to be the most likely candidates to handle the ninth.
Would Ohearn, Santander, or Mountcastle make sense in a trade scenario? Obviously Mountcastle would bring more of a return, but assuming health you’ve got Hayes in left, Mullins in center presumably not moving…..then Santander, Cowser, and Hicks getting starts. Now, Hicks is just a guy, and Cowser is untouchable, and Santander can play 1B. This is all with Kjerstad beating down the door. Then you add in the incredible but completely unforeseen emergence of Ohearn and the return of Mountcastle idk what you do.
I don’t think I’d want to touch any of the prospects named Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg or Mayo, as high end as they are for any of these rentals. I haven’t seen any names floated with longer control available that make a lot of sense. But certainly there may be some guys not being publicly named that could be available who would make more sense to move those guys. But if what’s been reported is basically who ends up being available, I wonder who, if anyone, gets traded. It’s a great problem to have I guess, but it feels clear that a move to bolster the pitching needs to happen.
I would have to believe O’Hearn doesn’t carry that much value as the small sample of plate appliances this season doesn’t discount the last 5 years in KC. I would think teams would like to see more before giving up anything for him.
Mountcastle’s value is at it’s lowest right now after the bout with vertigo so the O’s aren’t likely getting much there either.
Santander is the best chip of that group but realistically the O’s best trade chips are up the middle between Frazier, Mateo and Urias
Actually, it’s not five years in KC, it’s 4. As a rookie, he had a better OPS+ than with the Os. Who is he. The .900 OPS guy with regular ABs at age 24 and 29, or the .700 OPS guy in between? Who knows? His MILB numbers actually look more like his rookie year.
I think someone is going to look and conclude that he was a victim of a badly managed organization and is worthy of a shot.
If I thought they could get anything for Mateo, Urías, or even Frazier I’d be on board. But a) I don’t think they hold much value, and b) they still leave the math problem at 1B/RF
I think Santander is underrated. He’s 28, still has another year of control and is exceeding his career averages in every category. It’s real improvement, because his K/BB ratio is steadily improving. You demand a lot if you trade him. Not a rental pitcher. They can move him, but it should be a package for a Top 50 prospect.
OHearn was a guy you sign as an insurance policy, but now he’s a trade chip. He could be flipped for a decent prospect or solid BP guy. I’d call Billy Eppler. He’s been very generous with the Os and the Mets need a LH bat bad. David Robertson is useless for the Mets, but might help in the BP.
Santander has also improved every year so we don’t even know his full ceiling yet
Does O’Hearn have any control after this year or is he, too, a rental? Hicks is a rental. Vertigo can be a big question mark going forward. Austin Meadows was still having bouts, before his mental break. It can be a constantly recurring problem. You may not get what you need this year for those players.
Hays. Jesus christ. Why is it so hard for “fans” to spell a four-letter last name. His name is NOT HAYES. Hays. It’s even on his jersey.
And trading O’Hearn, whose value outside of Baltimore is nil, would be dumb. He clearly likes where he is, and is a solid part of our lineup. He has contributed more than Mounty this year.
Agree on O’Hearn. Keep him unless someone offers real value. But if they do, you’ve created playing time for Santander and Kjerstad at first and platoon and PH Mountcastle until his value and health is a little clearer.
Have you heard of a type or auto correct? There’s a Hayes in baseball as well which could cause the name spelling confusion
The name of the article about the rays and Ohtani is:
“Rays will make a call on Shohei Ohtani. But a deal? Don’t count on it.”
Rays have almost everyone coming back next year. They might need to ship out all their incoming prospects that need 40 man space. Maybe Ohtani can get them over the hump
They have that problem every year. It forced the Joe Ryan deal and now they have to figure out what to do with Brujan, Baz, Edwards, Aranda, Greg Jones, etc., etc. Siri was a nice pick up, but in the long run, Seth Johnson may turn out to be a key Os starter. I think the Os are in the same position now. The trade deadline will be about getting guys off the 40 man with the maximum return.
In theory. But Baz is the only one on that list who will or should be protected. Edwards isn’t even with the Rays anymore, Brujan has been a major bust (as much as I like the guy), Jones has never developed and has no spot, Aranda cannot translate that AAA hitting into MLB hitting…maybe that happens? Maybe he gets traded? There was a need for a CF last year, thus the trade–I do agree, in the long run Johnson may be the better player. Most Rays prospects at this point are lower in the minors, they have a few years…with a few guys (Mead, Manzardo) hopefully on their way to St. Pete’s to help with the offense.
they should do it, but they probably wont.
They might, because you should never underestimate the foolishness of desparate win now GMs forced to make deals. If the Rays stack up prospects that would be improvements for the 2024 Angels (half their Durham roster), plus Baz, Minassian might give them Shohei and whatever is left from their 2022 and 2023 draft classes.
I for one will hope they do not do this…and knowing the history of the Rays FO, and their general focus on the long term, I don’t see it happening.
Maybe in most years. They’d be acquiring the equivalent of Cole and Judge, and in a 5 or 7 game series, Ohtani could carry them.
The rays aren’t trading for Ohtani nor should they nor will they be in on any top rental that costs the farm. They aren’t ever going to pay sticker price.
Nick omitted a key part of Marc’s article.
With the possibility of the Rays soon being sold, Sternberg could pull a Loria by trading for Ohtani and then giving him a massive contract. Sternberg wouldn’t have to worry about the financial repercussions or farm system repercussions for very long because he wouldn’t be the owner for much longer.
Loria did the same thing with Stanton, gave him a massive contract and then sold the Marlins shortly after.
That massive contract would have to be in the ballpark of $525-550 million for Ohtani to consider spending the next decade plus in Tampa. Though an acquisition of that magnitude could certainly help to get a resolution on a new stadium moving
Look at it from Shohei’s perspective. He’s going to sign a record contract and would have a massive tax bill in California. Like $75m on that contract. Go to Florida, establish residency and save a lot of tax dollars. He doesn’t even need to re-sign.
Atl – Superb point. That was also a factor in ARod signing with the Rangers, no local or state tax.
Everyone ignores the state tax issue. Except the smart agents. It’s like Kershaww resigning with the Dodgers every year. No way he’d do that if he wasn’t a Texas resident. And it’s why all of the West Coast teams have moved ST to Arizona. CA was taxing them on their ST days.
Atl – You lost me on Kershaw.
The Jock Tax means you pay tax where you play. Kershaw is paying Cali taxes on all the games he plays in Dodger Stadium, which means half his annual salary is getting taxed by Cali.
It’s not like fully remote workers who get taxed by the state they live in, rather than the state where the employer is located. If the work is being done where you live in Texas or Florida, no tax. Otherwise you pay the state where the work is being done, which means wherever you and your computer is located.
It would be shocking if the tax rate would influence which team he chooses after signing the largest contract in pro sports history.
King Omar
Don’t you Blaspheme in here
Don’t you Blaspheme in here.
Also Lord Mountcastle will never surrender
Aretha, Blues Brothers.
Why is everyone so excited to get Ohtani? Yeah he is good in the regular season, but he has never played in the postseason. His extended rest as a pitcher could really hurt a team in a short series because you would have to carry an extra starter.
Agreed. IMO, everyone is not excited to get him. The way the media hypes him, just makes it look that way. Plenty of teams out there that don’t want to touch him and for two reasons. 1st. two way players don’t fit their on field strategy . 2nd. Some owners think don’t shell out that kind of money for one player. They prefer a roster with multi key players on similar deals including length and earnings.
And in Ohtani’s case, dude hasn’t even sniffed playoff action.
Jeff – I think the biggest drawback to signing Ohtani would be the fact that if he goes on the IL the team is essentially losing two players at once, while still paying essentially two salaries. He gets hurt, the team has to replace both a pitcher and a DH. That would be two massive holes to fill simultaneously when you consider his production.
Also, about 20 teams can’t afford him.
C Yards, it’s not nothing that he was MVP of the WBC in a playoff atmosphere, had a career in Japan and up until injuries this year led the Angels to a playoff berth . He’s the greatest baseball player ever. To discount him for not having playoff experience is silly.
Because he’s the best baseball player, skills-wise at least, to ever play.
No he’s not. He is the best hitting pitcher ever. You can’t be the best baseball player ever if you never take the field to play defense.
Hiflew, I respect your opinion but that’s not valid criteria. His stats and ability speak for itself. There has never been this good of a player.
I’m with hiflew on this one fellas. Ohtani has been in the MLB for awhile now. Not only no playoff action but struggles to carry a team, as all world players in any sport should do, to stay above 500. And this is the MLB. Can’t compare accomplishments with other league competitions. Just can’t.
>Tampa…pursuing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani
People are only saying this to make Yankees fans and bloggers crap their pants.
Im an Os fan. The Rays driving up the Yankees prospect price for a Shohei rental is 100% upside. In order to match what the Rays could offer, the Yankees will have to strip to the studs.
Forgot about Edwards and certainly agree about Jones, but they have 6 guys on the 60 day that have to be added back. So the math on keeping Mead, Baz, and Manzardo and adding Caminero, without some DFAs from the current BP is not great. Offering the Angels Aranda, Baz, Brujan Mead and Goss for a Shohei rental would excite the Angels and have little impact on the Rays. Would the Angels throw in three good prospects (do they even have 3) and solve all of the 40 man issues. Im an Os fan and their 2023 40 man issues are less than the Rays, because the Os have Frazier, Gibson, Givens and Coulombe as 40 man non issues and some non prospects left on the 40 man. But I want the Os to trade 40 man prospects for younger prospects and I think the Rays might think the same way.
No way would the Angels do that. They’ll certainly want at least a near-ready top prospect if not 2, and some down-level prospects. Mead would be a solid piece to play 2B next year, but it’ll take more than an injured Baz and throw-ins. If the Angels could acquire what could be a top prospect hitter (Caminero?) and use his $30 mil for an ace (they’ve never done that) then they could come close to replacing Ohtani soon.
Angels either take a deal or get nothing more than an extra draft pick. Mead or Manzardo plus Vasquez or Colmanarez,and maybe a throw-in should be enough to start a conversation
I’ve got a question, I’ve always like mountcastle, but anything I’ve ever read from the o’s fans and media they seem to not like him or don’t really appreciate him very much. They have this nose in the air attitude about them like they are too good for him, like they were not the shittiest team for years. Is he that bad that they should move him or go with ryan o Hearn of all people. It was before o Hearn the hate started. I never got it. Help me understand
The young guys that are coming through the o’s system, I doubt any of them will be hitting 30 plus hrs out the gate. Is mountcastle that bad at everything else that the power is replaceable?