Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo is currently slated to become a free agent after the 2024 season but is open to staying in Boston longer. “I’m all ears,” he tells Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. “I do love Boston. I’ve been saying it for many years. I’ve really been able to come into my own in this organization. I like it a lot.”
However, Verdugo says that he and the club haven’t had any talks about a contract that would prevent him from hitting the open market. There’s still time for such talks to take place though and the outfielder doesn’t seem especially concerned. “However they and we want to handle it, that’s how it happens,” he says. “All in good time. It will happen when it happens.”
The 27-year-0ld is having his best season to date in 2023. His 8.9% walk rate is around league average, but his 12.1% strikeout rate is excellent, placing him in the top 10 among qualified hitters in the league. He only has five home runs on the year, but his contact approach has led to a .301/.374/.462 batting line. His 128 wRC+ indicates he’s been 28% better than the league-average hitter and represents the highest such tally of his career.
Verdugo is having a solid campaign on defense as well, having tallied nine Defensive Runs Saved, two Outs Above Average and a grade of 8.2 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Those figures all put him on pace to set personal bests in those categories by season’s end if he keeps it up. FanGraphs grades him as having produced 2.4 wins above replacement on the season, which is already better than his high of 2.1 from back in 2019 with the Dodgers. Baseball Reference gave him 3.0 WAR for that 2019 campaign but he’s already at 2.8 this year with more than half the season remaining.
If Verdugo can keep up that level of play for the rest of this year and the 2024 season, he’ll be setting himself up for a nice payday. He will turn 28 next May and will be set to become a free agent prior to his age-29 season, allowing him to market several of his prime years to potential suitors.
The Red Sox could prevent him from reaching the open market with an extension but apparently haven’t shown much interest in doing so, at least not yet. If they do have interest, it’s possible that they will sit down with Verdugo and his representatives this offseason, since contract talks during this stage of the season are rare. At that point, he will have more than five years of service time and be within a year of free agency.
Looking at some recent extensions for players in that service time bracket, there are some players obviously on a tier above Verdugo. MVP-caliber players like Francisco Lindor and Verdugo’s teammate Rafael Devers got $341MM and $313.5MM, respectively. Slightly below those guys, there’s players like Byron Buxton and Ketel Marte, who have shown MVP upside on occasion but have struggled to stay healthy for lengthy stretches. They each signed deals with lesser guarantees but heavy incentives that would allow them to earn more money if they stayed healthy, with Buxton getting $100MM and Marte $76MM.
Verdugo is a solid contributor but hasn’t quite reached the elite levels of those players. A better comparison is probably Ian Happ, who just signed a three-year, $61MM extension with the Cubs. Decent but not elite corner outfielders tend to be capped near that level even when they reach the open market. This past winter, we saw Andrew Benintendi get a $75MM guarantee over five years from the White Sox while Mitch Haniger got $43.5MM over three, as injury concerns for the latter undoubtedly tamped that down a bit.
The Red Sox have generally shied away from extensions, even with their star players, which is how Verdugo came to Boston in the first place. When the Sox were clearly not going to extend Mookie Betts, they flipped him and David Price to the Dodgers for a package of players headlined by Verdugo. More recently, Xander Bogaerts and the club couldn’t agree to a second extension and he wound up with the Padres. They bucked that trend with Devers this winter and made him their face-of-the-franchise player.
It’s fairly understandable that the Sox don’t have too much urgency to lock up Verdugo, in that they already have a long-term commitment to one corner outfielder. This offseason, they signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90MM guarantee that also involved paying a $15.375MM release fee to the Orix Buffaloes, his NPB team. Teams generally lean towards making their signature commitments in the middle of the diamond, with catchers, shortstops and center fielders often outpacing similar hitters in the corners. The Sox have one such deal with Trevor Story but are also significantly embedded with Devers and Yoshida. Perhaps they would prefer to save their chips to address other areas of their roster such as their pitching staff or catching corps.
Of course, these situations are always fluid. With Happ and the Cubs, the team already had significant commitments to players like Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki and nothing came together by Opening Day this year. It didn’t feel like it would get done, but the two sides finally put pen to paper on April 12, when he was just a few months away from free agency. Though it doesn’t seem like there’s much progress between the Sox and Verdugo right now, these things can come together quickly, especially when the player is open to staying.
They won’t give him a dime
Yes and why should they? Devers and Turner are the only hitters with true power on that team and Turner could even be gone next year (player option).
The Red Sox need bigger bats in that OF.
Whinning about power hitters when the team is 6th in runs scored is hilarious. Adam Duval is a better power hitter than Justin Turner anyway. Verdugo is doing a great job ya ask me. Many RF can’t play RF in Fenway it’s unique with Peske’s pole and other dimensions. Every team needs a table sitter and the Red Sox are blessed with 2 in Duran and Verdugo. Extend your quality players because if they go to free agency they just cost ya more to retain.
So kind of him.
Comparisons to Happ, Haniger and Benintendi are definitely lessons for teams to consider. Happ at $20M is a big overpay and Beni hasn’t even cracked one out of the yard yet. Haniger, we’ll…he’s Haniger. Verdugo’s agent is going to need to earn that commission.
If Happ produces 2.5-3 WAR per year, the contract is fair. Not all a “huge overpay.”
Verdugo looks like the kind of guy who has a drop in performance one the security is there. He’s even been benched lately for his lackadaisical playing style on the base paths. Not exactly the best time to ask your organization for money.
If they want to extend him, fine. Maybe 3/36 with some performance bonuses thrown in. A 4th year if you must. But I also wouldn’t miss him if you just traded him instead.
This is the problem with giving him a long term extension. In years past it was almost a guarantee that if Verdugo was coming up with runners on he was either going to strikeout or ground out and he seemed to have a ho-hum appropriate to the game. This year Cora challenged him to be a better player and to Verdugo’s credit he has, thus far, risen to the challenge. The caveat being one last turn through arbitration and trying to build a strong free agent stock. Take that away and you may get the player from the last two years
Last year Verdugo had roughly 10 fewer RBI’s than Devers and more than J. D. Martinez. He is a much better than average fielder. He was benched for one base running incident where he didn’t hustle, and he should have been. Have you seen what he has done since? I like guys who don’t strike out and who get on base. Everybody doesn’t have to hit home runs to be effective. Someone has to get on base or solo home runs mean little.
Have you watched Verdugo much outside of this year? It’s a gross mischaracterization of his historic performance to call him a good fielder historically based on the actual numbers he put up. He was okay, but nothing great…
This year he has been better. But you don’t value an extension based on one true season (I don’t count 2020 for anyone) unless you want to get burned, badly.
I bet half of his motivation to ask for an extension this year is he doubts in his ability to replicate these results next year, and, rightly so.
A tool, but he can play baseball
Why is he a tool? I don’t follow the Sox closely, so I honestly am asking…
Look at his username and you’ll have your answer
A tool because he likes to have fun and talk his talk? From everything I’ve see he seems like a good dude and is a good ball player. Always humble when he does post game interviews too
He’s smug and likes himself too much. I get the same vibe from Kike Hernandez
That’s rich coming from a Yankees fan
Agreed. Has all sorts of Mexico related uniform pieces, like his tri colored belt and shoes. The “Doogie” headband he’s always seemingly wearing underneath the ballcap. Bright gold colored arm padding, even the one many base runners use. One day kind of expect him to wear a south of the border, full mask typical of wrestlers like fans do in some cities onto the field (joking of course).
If there is a knock to his game? To me it’s he sometimes gets carried away on the bases, but it’s hustle and not laziness like some players are guilty of.
Why are the Mexico related uniform pieces seen as a knock on him? He’s proud of his Mexican heritage and likes to show it. I fail to see how that could be taken in a negative way whatsoever.
The south of the border related items Doogie has with his unie are “NOT” seen negatively by me and thought made that clear in original post, but something positive and fun he brings to each game.
Only negative was what posted about occasional baserunning lapses.
> If there is a knock to his game?
Never developed power. A bit one-dimensonal as a hitter, just average/doubles. No speed. My opinion.
Exactly Jake he seems like a guy who wants to play has fun and seems like a good guy in the clubhouse. I don’t get the sense at all he is smug and full himself. One other thing the guy is a gamer sounds like the reason he seems slower he played on a fractured toe since mid April last year that would hurt anyone’s production. He looks healthy and seems to genuinely want to be in Boston long term. If he can be extended for 10d money I would seriously consider it very similar players.
“Slower last year”
They should definitely open talks with him. I’d love to see him leading off for us for years to come
It’s a bargaining tactic and a good idea. Players saying they ‘want to stay’ is a great PR move and puts all the pressure on the team. Boston always signs its stars – this one is in the bag.
Always seem to happen while they’re having a really good stretch/career year too
Ohyea – isn’t that something? Success brings an open mind. I like Verdugo, there’s a Trot Nixon element in his game I admire, hope he sticks around. However, once bitten twice shy with this Sox front office. Maybe hockey fans can boo Henry again and Verdugo gets his deal? Someone get Henry to a Bruins game (if you can find him).
I mean he’s not going to be a power hitter, but he doesn’t strike out a lot, he puts the ball in play, has a decent to good batting average and is a plus defender. Chaim should definitely look into extending him.
They will spend next year. Timing is everything and since they’re resetting the taxes this year, they will be fair. The question though is does their definition of being fair/reasonable match his?
I think the Benintendi contract is a good framework for Verdugo, but in my opinion, the Sox front office, as well as their coaching staff, would want to see him keep these numbers up all season before tying him up long term since this is really the first time they’ve seen him elevate his game.
They should absolutely consider extending him. The only potential starting outfielders at AA or above are Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, neither of whom are slam dunk regulars. I want him back. I do think he is someone who benefits from having the carrot of a contract hanging in front of him.
I don’t see why the Red Sox would not offer him a fair, long-term offer, 5 to 7 years, 15m a year or so
I see them selling high on him. Possibly even trading him at the deadline depending where they’re at in the standings. Their OF is getting kinda crowded. Yoshida’s not going anywhere, they have Duvall’s power for another year, Duran’s starting to play to his ability, Keke’s not staying in the IF, and Rafaela is knocking at the door. I like Duggie, but you might as well get something for him before he gets lazy again.
Oh, and JBJ is available again :-p
Unless Verdugo is interested in a team-friendly deal, which seems unlikely, might as well let him play out his contract and see what the market offers. He’s a solid, but non-elite player. A fair argument for these guys is get their best years in their 20s at lower cost, then move on.
Rob: Agreed. No need to extend him a year before they need to.
My guess is he gets a pretty similar contract to Benintendi if he keeps up how he’s been performing this year. Doubt the Sox give it to him, though.
Verdugo looked very promising in 2020, and then got progressively worse over the next 2 seasons. He only responded with an improved game when Cora challenged him, and has recently been benched for lack of hustle. He’s fine. But I’m not sure you want to really give him a long term deal. I say have a look at Abreu and Rafaela, and if neither look ready or able to perform at the same level, then revisit extending Verdugo. He’s good but not great, and I don’t have a lot of faith in him maintaining this level of play if Cora has to challenge him. He doesn’t seem to have the intrinsic drive to get better. For some reason, there is disproportionate love for him in the fan base, and I can’t quite figure out why. Some say it’s hustle, but if you have to be benched for lack of hustle, I’m not sure you can call it that.
Username checks out.
Or you know the fact he played on a fractured toe in 2022 since middle April. That couldn’t slow him down at all. He seems to be healthy this year. I think the toe, especially, affected his defense last year this is his biggest transformation the high quality defense he has played in one of the most difficult right fields in baseball.
The toe wasn’t a problem in 2021, and, he stunk then
It wouldn’t surprise me if they tried to extend him on a one year deal.
Ok, not much power, as in home run power, but this guy has been clutch throughout his years with Boston. If the games tied or the Sox are behind a run or two, there is no one I would rather have at the plate with runners in scoring position. That said, I don’t think you can sign him! That would block any young outfielders. Unless they can find serious trade value from Duran, I believe Cora’s challenge was to set Dugie up for a trade after 2023, maybe sooner! They really do need a quality starter right now!
Verdugo and his gold chain pretending to be Aaron Judge is just a laughable joke
Why does Buxton look like a 45 year old ish Pimp in his BBR profile pic?
character. he doesn’t belong in a red sox uniform
Yup, he’s definitely a dirtbag. Trade him before he turns into a pumpkin again.
Another RedSox win with Dugies home run in the ninth!