Early in the year, there was a decent amount of trepidation about Juan Soto. The Padres superstar was still reaching base at an excellent clip but was clearly performing below his established level. Soto carried a .202/.373/.384 line across 126 plate appearances through the end of April. That came on the heels of a .236/.388/.390 showing in 52 games last summer after one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history.
For most players, those numbers wouldn’t be cause for concern. While the batting averages weren’t eye-catching, consistently excellent walk tallies kept the on-base mark at an elite level. Among qualified hitters, Soto ranked 12th in the majors with a .382 OBP between the time of the trade and the start of this May.
By Soto’s standards, though, that production was a disappointment. He’d been a top-five hitter in MLB virtually from the moment he was promoted as a 19-year-old five seasons back. For him to hit only 11 homers with a .388 slugging percentage through his first 81 games as a Padre was a surprise. A .254 average on balls in play certainly didn’t do him any favors, but the three-time Silver Slugger also seemed relatively out of sorts. In mid-April, he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post he felt he was pulling off too many pitches, resulting in weak ground-ball contact to the pull side.
As the season has gone on, Soto has more consistently found his power stroke. He caught fire in May, hitting .333/.482/.632, resulting in a 202 wRC+ that ranked third among qualified hitters that month. While he’s slowed down in June, he still carries a .302/.433/.524 line over the past six weeks. He’s drawn 29 walks against 28 strikeouts while hitting 13 doubles and five home runs over his last 36 contests.
That’s essentially the kind of production we’ve come to expect from Soto. He’s a career .282/.422/.520 hitter in just under 3000 plate appearances. He’s played essentially at that pace for a month and a half. The beginning of May is an arbitrary endpoint, of course. There’s nothing more meaningful about May 1 than there would be about April 26. It’s nevertheless encouraging to see Soto performing at his typical Nationals level for an extended stretch.
Soto is still pulling the ball on the ground a little more often than he had in prior seasons. That’s not ideal given his April comments about getting out in front of too many pitches. When he puts the ball in the air, though, he’s hitting it harder than he did at the start of the year.
The contact quality was the only potential concern. His strike zone discipline has never wavered. Soto sustaining this level will be crucial for a club that still hasn’t kicked things into gear. His hot stretch coincided with a Manny Machado injury and a dismal recent run of play from Xander Bogaerts. The offense as a whole has yet to get going, leaving the Padres with a 31-34 record heading into tonight’s series opener with the Guardians.
Fortunately for San Diego, few teams in the National League have separated themselves from the pack. The Padres are looking up at a 9.5-game deficit on the Diamondbacks in the NL West, which will obviously be difficult to close, even with more than three months remaining on the schedule. However, they’re only two and a half games behind the Giants and Brewers for the Senior Circuit’s last Wild Card spot. Aside from the Dodgers, no team in the Wild Card mix has a better run differential than San Diego’s +19 figure. Despite the mediocre start, there’s still plenty of time for the Friars to play their way into the postseason picture.
Soto should be a central part of that effort. His start in San Diego raised some eyebrows, but he’s looked much more like himself over the last six weeks. Continued production like that should quiet questions about whether his camp had made a grave mistake turning down a reported $440MM extension offer from Washington before the trade. He has a chance to make last summer and this April look like a blip. He looks on his way to doing so.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Now, without that guaranteed TV contract money coming in, will he see it from SD?? Reportedly, they had $60M/season from the TV contract that is now defunct with MLB stepping in, at least for the rest of the season. I can imagine another TV contract being hammered out, but when? Until then, would they really commit that kind of money not knowing?
As long as Seidler and Preller are still there, I assume they will continue to shell out the big bucks.
I think it’s imperative to resign him with the prospect haul they gave up for Soto. If they were suddenly being budget-conscious, then extending Machado wouldn’t make sense.
None of those prospects are doing very well as of today.
Abrams, who was a consensus top 10 prospect at the time of the trade, is struggling on both offense and defense this season after playing much the same way last season. Gore, who was also a consensus top 10 prospect, has an ERA over 4 and an even higher a FIP. Combined they have a 1.7 WAR since the trade while Soto has a 4.2 WAR.
Hassell is struggling period and Wood is struggling since his promotion to AA. I think Wood will turn it around and may someday become a MLB player. Maybe as soon at the end of the 2024 season, but more likely in 2025.
The thing most people don’t take into consideration when trying to judge trades is that less than 20% of top 100 prospects become even an average MLB player. That is about 2 WAR per season. Less than 1 in 20 have a 4 WAR season in their careers. Those are out of the top 100 prospects.
At his current pace, Soto will provide the Padres with 13+ WAR. Will take a huge rebound from Abrams and Gore and at least one of Hassell and Wood becoming a league average player to even match that performance.
If the Padres get 2+ seasons of well above average hitting from Soto then they got what they paid for regardless of the prospects they sent away.
Gore is okay, but Abrams should be in the minors until he starts making more contact. Rizzo continues to follow the Nat MO (Garcia & Robles) of letting highly-ranked prospects figure out the strike zone in the pros instead of in the minors.
James Wood is now a top 10 prospect in baseball. Padre fans pretending they didn’t sell out the future for Soto is cute. Yeah, that 17 year old catcher looks nice but Jackson Merrill isn’t nearly as good as you hyped him up to be
Both Abrams and Gore were top 10 prospects in baseball.
Pretending that Abrams, Gore, Woods or any of the prospects the Padres traded to the Nats is a surefire thing is cute.
That 17 year old catcher is in A ball when most players are still a junior in high school or playing in the DSL. THAT is how good he is. Best catching prospect in a generation. STILL not a sure thing.
I never hyped Merrill or any other prospect in that trade. Merrill is hitting better than Bobby Barrels. He was better last season as well. He is also year younger. Probably why he is ranked so much higher on the prospect lists.
But hey, keep on pretending you understand this stuff.
@Padsfan, if they don’t extend gim regardless if the prospects pan out u have to also consider the opportunity cost. Gore and Abrahams could ve been traded elsewhere for possibly players with more years of club control.
Regardless if they extend him, he gets flipped next year, or leaves in FA I think it was worth the risk for Padres. This year might not b going as they’d hoped, but the team is loaded with talent and star power and draws interest on a national level. I’m hope though Padres will b able to extend him. Would b great to see their big 4 play together for years to come.
Amk – how can you expect to be considered credible when you discount Merrill while overvaluing Wood / Hassell?
Prospects are suspects. There is no justification for trying to separate Merrill and Hassell and Wood based on their ages and their current performance.
Padres are all in on resigning Soto. They pretty much have to be. Not because of the prospects they have away to get him. Because they invested all that money in other players and he is their best hitter. Until it all blows up in 6-7 years as those other players age, they need to double down on young incredibly talented players like Soto.
If they retain Soto all is fine. Anything short of no World Series trip and he walks is a complete disaster. 1 playoff run down. 2 to go.
amk1920
James Wood is now a top 10 prospect in baseball.
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They are promoting him too fast.
He projected to 190 Ks/600 ABs in A-ball, so they promoted him to A+.
He projected to 196 Ks in A+, so they promoted him to AA.
He projected to 233 Ks in AA ball (SSS).
I will gladly recognize that the evaluators know 10x as much as I do, but those 200-k guys in the minors rarely work out.
Once you start signing everyone in sight, it becomes almost impossible to change direction. Their 2027 payroll is already $140M for 7 guys,
I mean acting like those prospects value cuts off at 2 years ( that’s really when it starts) is beyond silly
This is about as dumb as of a take as the last Padres article I went into when the fan base was justifying Pomeranzs contract as a plus bc of insurance ; Mercy
You guys are the winners of everything but baseball I guess is the takeaway
I don’t think the Padres would have traded ANY of the prospects that went to the Nationals if it was not in a trade for a generational talent like Soto. They would have stayed and been in the Padres system today.
Gore and his 4+ ERA would be at the back of the rotation instead of Wacha or Lugo. Although it would probably mean the Padres would not have to have called up Weathers again.
Abrams would have either been in AAA or a utility infielder. He was not taking games away from Kim at SS, that is for sure. Not sure the Padres would have signed Bogaerts or even gone after a big name SS if Abrams was in the minors trying to earn a spot.
Definitely a risk worth taking. They were lined up to make a run at a WS and Soto is the kind of talent it takes to do that.
What is really silly is projecting prospects to have any value at all in the majors. While 70% of top 100 prospects make the majors, relatively few, about 17%, put up a 2 WAR career average and only 3-4 out of those top 100 put up even a single season at All Star level.
The Nationals are already seeing that some of the prospects they get are not panning out. Abrams is out of his depth both with the bat and the glove. Gore is meh. Just about league average. Woods is a monster when he hits the ball but it’s looking more and more like he is going to be a 35% K rate guy. Thats 192 strike outs in a 550 ab season. Hassell struggled with the bat last season and is struggling again this season. I doubt he ever sees the majors as more than a 4th OF.
What is really silly is projecting prospects to have any value at all in the majors.
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Silly take, imo. You can project the value of virtually everything in the entire world. It doesn’t mean you are going to be right 100% of the time. But this holds true for every investment you will ever make.
Not pan out ? ITs been a year and a half my dude
I guess as a SD fan your kinda right, your prospects don’t ever pan out.
Good luck the next 3 years, your going to be the pit of the NL West soon after and be forgotten.
Joe, you are right about being able to calculate the value of most everything. The reason the Padres moved all those players for Soto and Bell is because of those values.
Some of those values they calculated are that just 17% of top 100 prospects become league average or 2 WAR players in their careers. 3% have had a single 4 WAR season or higher.
Soto had averaged 6.0 WAR per 162 games. Remember, 2020 was just 60 games.
Bell had a 3.4 WAR at the time of the trade after a 3.1 WAR in 2021.
We have seen how little the players sent to the Nationals have produced so far. Gore, who is in his age 24 season like Soto, is a 4.04 ERA/4.20 FIP/104 ERA+ starter with the Nationals. His peripherals point to a slight regression, but as of today he is on pace for a 3 WAR season. Abrams is struggling for the 2nd straight season in the majors. An 82 OPS+ and blow average defense by DRS and OAA. He has been consistently below average on both O and D for 2 seasons. He has contributed a 0.2 WAR since the trade. No one else is likely to contribute for the Nationals before 2025 at the earliest. Wood is a top 10 prospect like both Abrams and Gore were. He is on pace to have a 33% strike out rate in the minors and he just got to AA. That doesn’t bode well for him excelling in the majors. Hassell is in his 2nd straight season of struggling in the minors. His calling card is his bat and he isn’t hitting well. Susana is 19 and is struggling with control in Low A 3.69 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9. Maybe revisit him when he reaches AA in 2 years.
Out of those 5, just one is likely to become that major league regular that plays at an average or above average level. My money is on Gore, although just as a middle of the rotation starter.
Soto is already a super star player. Bell was at least a star player. Neither worked out for the Padres in 2022. Soto is on pace for another 6 WAR season in 2023.
Soto – 13-14 war for the Padres from 2022-2024 based on the current production.
Bell – 0.3 WAR for Padres in 2022
Voit – -o.2 WAR for NAtionals in 2022
Gore – 12-13 WAR in 2022-2027 for the Nationals.
Abrams – 1 WAR in 2022-2027 for the Nationals.
Others – ? If we are being generous, a 2-4 war in 2022-2027
The Padres will come out just fine in this trade. Like most it will turn out to benefit both teams. A win-win. If in 2022 Bell and Soto had played up to what they produced for the Nationals then the Padres would be far ahead.
Those players San Diego gave up will be the core of the Nats next contending team.
Bell’s and Soso’s hitting both tanked after their trades to San Diego.
If Bell had hit more, then San Diego would have resigned him.
He was cold in the 2nd half and the playoffs.
I think that the Nats are grossly mishandling Abrams. I just can’t believe that Rizzo wants him in the pros with less than 500 minor league semi-successful ABs.
I also believe that the chances of him only having one career WAR from 2023-2028 is almost non-existent.
Gore is on pace for a 3.49 bWAR in his first service year.
Hassell is a question mark because of his wrist injuries, and FG still rates Wood as a 60 FV.
I would take the over on Abrams, Gore, and Wood, and wouldn’t expect it to be particularly close.
How the teams handle players certainly plays into the percentage of players that make it in the majors. What matters more is how the players themselves adjust to the difference in the talent level they are playing against. How much they are able to slow down the game and deal with a game with 3 decks.
Abrams is actually declining right now. He has hit .152 the last month. .091 the last 2 weeks. His OPS+ has dropped ten points since my post. His defense has gotten worse, not better. To think he will have a 1 WAR the next 5 years might actually be optimistic. I am not sure he will finish the first half in the majors this season.
Gore has shown pretty clearly who he is. A middle of the rotation starter. A 3.0 WAR type of pitcher. Good, not great. He will likely be the best player the Nationals get out of that deal from the Padres if he can stay healthy.
Wood is an extremely talented player. His problem, as you pointed out, is that as he climbs the ladder his SO % keeps going up. The average change between AA and the majors is a 3% increase in SO%. He is at 37% in AA right now and 34% between A+ and AA this season. Where does that put him by the time he is playing for the Nationals in 2025? 195-200 SO?
MLB also still grades Woods as a 60 prospect. Guess who else graded out as a 60? Abrams. Hassell graded out as a 50. That means he has a ceiling of a MLB average player and that looks highly unlikely.
The large sample size stats don’t lie and Abrams, Gore, Wood, and Hassell are proving that point. I will take the under and as of today it’s not particularly close.
The Padres got “hosed” by the Nats in the “Soso” deal.
OF Hassell III is a younger version of Kyle Tucker who plays CF well and is rated 60 and 55 in most categories of skill.(future All Star).
OF James Wood is rate “60”= future All Star
CJ Abrams drafted out of high school…Scouts say “Trey Turner” potential when he is ready for MLB. Nats have “rushed him”.
Very young, very strong pitching in deal also.
Padres only make out short term for the Soto rental (2 1/2 years)
if he helps them win a World Series Championship before he walks as a free agent. (Padres are not paying him 400M-500M Boros demands). Maybe Dodgers? Yankees? Mets?Cubs?
This reminds some of the Teixeira deal from Rangers to Braves
where 3-4 of the young players that came back to Texas made All Star teams and became the core of the Rangers pennant and World Series contending teams of that era.
Long term: Advantage Nationals.
History shows us that just ONE of the 5 prospects the Padres gave up will become an average major league player. Not two, not 5. That one is probably Gore.
Soto is on pace for a 6+ war season in 2023. He has a 145 OPS+ as of yesterday. 45% better than league average. If that is so-so, I want 7 more of that kind of so-so players on the team.
Bell tanked in his 2 months in San Diego. IF he had hit as well as he did in Washington the Padres would definitely have resigned him. He didn’t and they didn’t.
BOTH were excelling in Washington and there was no reason to think they would not continue to do so in San Diego.
Your words on Wood.
They are promoting him too fast.
He projected to 190 Ks/600 ABs in A-ball, so they promoted him to A+.
He projected to 196 Ks in A+, so they promoted him to AA.
He projected to 233 Ks in AA ball (SSS).
I will gladly recognize that the evaluators know 10x as much as I do, but those 200-k guys in the minors rarely work out.
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You are right. 35% SO rate, 200 SO per season guys rarely work out. I think he will make it to the majors, but I don’t see him being a regular. A DH or a bat off the bench with pop.
Judging players is hard for you isn’t it. Web laid it out perfectly. That you don’t get it is a testament to your lack of understanding of baseball talent.
Abrams is a bust. He has a -0.5 WAR this season and declining fast, a -0.4 WAR since the trade, and both his bat and defense are simply awful. He will be sent down soon and if he makes it back it will be as a utility guy.
Gore is proving to be a middle of the rotation starter. A #3 or #4 starter with an ERA around 4 and 3.0 WAR if he can stay healthy. Good. Valuable. Just not anything to write home about. He still might be the Nationals lone All Star selection.
Hassell is in his 2nd straight season of struggling in the minors. He probably washes out prior to making it to the majors, but even if he does, he grades out as having a ceiling of a major league average player.
Wood is striking out 35% of the tie this season. By the time he reaches the majors that will mean 200+ strike outs per season. Guys like that do not become All Stars. They become bats off the bench. BTW, 60 is a plus ceiling, not All Star level and both Abrams and Gore graded out as a 60+.
Susana is having huge control issues in low A ball. At best, he is 4 years away from the majors. At worst he doesn’t make it past A ball because he can’t consistently throw strikes.
If ALL the other prospects beyond Gore and Abrams make it to the majors, a HUGE longshot, they still would barely equal the production Soto is likely to put up in 2.5 seasons.
Short term, long term, any term: No advantage. Which is the way trades are SUPPOSED to work out.
The Nationals filled their farm and got one decent starter for 5 years and the Padres got a generational talent for 2.5 years.
False! Texeira deal 4 of the players sent to Texas from Atlanta made future All Star teams.
Clevinger deal from Cleveland to San Diego was revisited by press and
it was huge advantage Guardians, with former Padres farmhands becoming the core of the New Guardians playoff contenders.
Padres consistently get the short end of these deals.
Gore came into 2023 with a full year of service time. The Padres brought him up to start last season and after the trade he went on the IL for the rest of the season.
0000, one trade doesn’t invalidate the history of prospects.
How many in that trade had a career with a 2.0 WAR?
Andrus averaged 2.2 WAR for his career
NONE of the others did. Feliz had a 7.3 WAR, 10 season CAREER. Harrison had a 9.1 WAR, 8 year career. The others worse.
Sometimes its worth paying attention to what people say. You might just learn something.
Helu money.
Within hours of DSG announcing they were defaulting on their contract and the Padres taking their broadcast rights back, they had contracts signed with all the places they were seen on when it was Bally’s. You can still find them on Cox, DIRECTV, AT&T, Spectrum, and Fubo.
They are now broadcast to 2 million more homes than they were by Bally’s and they have sold 150k single team subscriptions to MLB.tv so far. They will likely make more money off TV than they did before.
Don’t cry for the Padres when it comes to TV money. They have been chomping at the bit for quite some time to get their rights back as they were the only part of Bally Sports SD that brought in any money.
The beginning of May is an arbitrary endpoint,
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Whatever start you have is almost by definition, arbitrary.
But before proclaiming his return, one should consider more than one start point.
For example, his OPS in his 14 games (cherry-picked since his last HR), is a robust-not .616. As a roto player, I would still gamble on him, but certainly wouldn’t be paying the premium his original slot suggested.
His numbers, from various angles, do not suggest he is back.
ANYONE with a 146 OPS+ is back. From any angle you want to look at that is incredibly good.
A 146+ is not back from what he was with the Nats (160+).
And incredibly good is relative. Compared to the 100+ players, sure. Compared to the universe of $300M+ players, not so very much. He has a 4.2 bWAR with SD in 511 PAs. Feel free to disagree, but that doesn’t sound like a $450M player.
@JB 511 PAs isn’t that large of a sample size in the grand scheme of a lengthy career Soto will have. He has 2950 PAs so far. One can cherry-pick a stretch of 500 PAs from any of the top 100 HOF hitters and find a bWAR less than Soto’s 4.2.
Top 20 overall in baseball is incredibly good compared to other players. Compared to all other 24 year players its incredible. He is the best 24 year old hitter in baseball. He has the highest WAR of any 24 year old player in baseball. Among players that are currently making $25+ million AAV or that will be a FA after this season or next season he ranks 5th in OPS+ and 4th in wRC+. That is pretty incredible too.
Having at 146 OPS+ at age 24 makes him a $30 million per season player when he becomes a FA and some team is going to lock him up for 14-15 years. You do the math.
I agree that it is a relatively small size, but it still matters. To be honest, I don’t know what to make of him. In the past three seasons, he’s averaged 29 HRs with a .273, but with an insane amount of walks. It is difficult to evaluate a player whose value rests so much on his walk rate.
That means Soto is on pace for a 5.4 bWAR in his first 162 team games with the Padres even though he had a terrible 2 months with them at the end of 2022. That does sound like a $450 million player to me if you are talking about a 15-year extension at the end of 2023 or a 14-year FA contract at the end of 2024.
There is no way he is getting less than $30 million AAV being the 2nd best hitter with 5+ seasons under their belt coming into their age 25 season since FA started. Arod wasn’t as good. Griffey wasn’t as good. Only Trout has been better. That is some elite company and its going to get him paid.
I would bet that if the contract is short, 10-11 years, it’s going to be at a $40 million AAV whether it’s an extension in the offseason or a FA deal at the end of next season.
5 days later Soto is on Pace for a 6.2 WAR.
Exit velocity-elite
Max exit velocity-elite
Base on balls-elite
Hard hit %-elite
On base % -elite
Slugging %-elite
Barrel % -elite
Chase rate- non-existent
Yeah clearly the guy is not back. The only question is his strike out rate increasing.
I would still compare him to Adam Dunn. Walks, hits HRs, but not a defensive plus, nor a plus Runner. Expect him to need to DH more as he ages. I would not offer what Washington offered. Not worth that contract.
I liked watching big donkey as much as the next baseball enjoyer, but I think Soto is quite a bit better
No worries the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and others will all be lining up for his services if the ever hits free agency.
*he
Stevie Cohen’s beautiful money.
He isn’t over 35 years old. The Mets won’t sign him.
Lol Soto isn’t a TTO player. At 24, he hasn’t even reached his prime years yet.
Baseball Reference dot com says these are the hitters similar to Juan Soto: Ronald Acuna Jr., Kal Daniels, Teoscar Hernández, Bob Cerv, Mitch Haniger, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger, Shohei Ohtani and George Selkirk.
Dunn never had a season as good as Soto in a down year.
Soto is an above average player, but WAY overrated. He’s an on-base machine(albeit without speed), complimentary player with below average defense/baserunning. Comparing him to Adam Dunn is rather ridiculous, because there’s almost ZERO similarities.
Dunn was a horrendously bad defensive player and didn’t produce as well in his best seasons that Soto does in his worst seasons.
Soso is not worth all the talent the Padres gave to the Nats for him.
Whether Soto or anyone else, paying a bunch of guys really well rather than a ton guaranteed to a single player is wiser in baseball. Houston and Atlanta have been showing that formula of disciplined generosity around well-rounded players.
Atlanta has done and amazing job acquiring young talent and extending them early at a discount. I really wouldn’t consider that so much spreading it around. Houston also has been loaded with young talent they did an excellent job acquiring. Houston more so than ATL has added some big veteran pieces here and there. The catalyst to both teams success tho has been young talent.
How is allocating payroll resources among many key guys not spreading it around? Correa wanted top $ and Hou wasn’t giving in w/his injury history (wise), Springer hurt a lot (moved on), Verlander this offseason. They extended Alvarez as bigger priority & might w/Tucker or Valdez. Atl drew a line with Freeman n got younger Olson when he dragged things out, extended Riley over Swanson. Strong organizations pay well, but don’t consider any 1 player a must to retain at silly $ or years. FO’s that pay retail are not virtuous for spending-they are the target prey of agents.
Spreading it around would b a team such as the Giants when they ll target specific free agents. By and large Houston has been winning with young controllable talent. I don’t view the cost of young controllable talent as being spread around. It is a cost every team carries. HOU just has not been spending on free agents they have been letting them walk not spreading anything amongst them.
Freeman took less money than the Braves were offering in order to get away from that FO.
Atlanta has a $245 million CBT payroll. They have $750 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2024 to 2028. It’s not like they are scrimping on contracts.
Soto over the last 2 weeks: .244/.340/.289 for a .629 OPS and a a 79 wRC+. But sure, oooooookay.
He had a 5 for 5 game. That’s been the high point of his hitting recently. Yes 5 for 5 is great, but I’d rather see a hitter whose batting well consistently most days.
THE DEAD BALL and THE STRIKE ZONE that the Padres have recieved for years is the reason for his struggles. A majority of stars who joined the Padres struggle after joining them due to the DEAD BALL in conjuction with a SKEWED STRIKE ZONE the Padres have recieved for years. Other teams routinely hit deep homers at Petco vs the Padres players hitting warning track shots and grounding out. When last years home run champion struggles to hit for power with the Padres you know there is something going on. I swear, and a good amount of MLB players Max Sherzer and Rich Hill as well as Austin Slater have asserted there are multiple balls in play. It’s easy to manipulate games and outcomes and the Padres have been on the reviewing end of that for years.
Really missed reading your conspiracy lunacy on Pobre posts, two. I especially like how you’re throwing unsuspecting major leaguers’ good names names around to strengthen your claims now. AND you remembered to like your own post! Gotta admit, I’m a little disappointed that you didn’t mention Tim Donaghy(or even anything about gambling) this time.
Look up Scherzer, Rich Hill and Austin Slater’s comments on the ball. Plenty of studies have been conducted in regards to the differing balls being used. The automated strike zone is being used and tested. These are statements made outside of any assertion I have made.
Pitchers that get SHELLED, often think there’s something wrong with the ball. In his prime, I never heard “Mad Max” complain about the balls being used.
Yet, Sherzer is not the only one asserting this. I will say his numbers in LA were solid so this isn’t due to a massive decline.
Max’s decline over the last 2-3 yrs is MASSIVE. You do remember he couldn’t take the ball in the Dodgers biggest game of the year(2 yrs ago)and now needs foreign agents on his hands, aka “sticky stuff”, to pitch well.
So you’re saying manfred is playing with Soto’s balls? Giving him the anti-judge treatment?
All jokes aside, Pete Alonso has mentioned the changing balls too.
Exactly and count the Mets and Cardinals as teams receiving the dead ball treatment as well.
I agree with you about the changing balls, tow, even if I’m not sure about who gets what balls. I’m surprised more people aren’t upset about this. It goes against the spirit of competition and makes the league look bad. After that scientist tested balls last year and found discrepancies, I knew the players griping had a leg to stand on. I wonder if the extremely low batting averages the last few years have anything to do with changing balls. Just my 2 cents
100% thanks pan! Even just simply from the eye test it’s evident that during games there are different balls in use but the test was a real eye opener. The players asserting this, including Verlander are staples, veterans with pedigree and reputations. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is more discontent behind the scenes. Hoping a team will play under protest to highlight the issue. Personally, watching the Padres go from one of the best teams in one run gamesin 2022 to one of the worst in 2023 after improving the team is a glaring sign. Baseball will lose viewership if fans begin to see that games are being steered.
“Even just simply from the eye test it’s evident that during games there are different balls in use”. Bro, If your eyes are that good, you should be running an MLB team. No actually, you should be running the ENTIRE MLB. That being said, what you are saying, is rather ridiculous and without substance or proof.
Research is there. Dr Meredith Wills. Google her and the study based around 200 balls collected and the variances between them. Plenty of big names in baseball, respected names have asserted that there is cause for concern. I’m not the only one asserting this. The evidence is there.
Read Maury Brown’s article ‘Major League’ Baseball’s Itegrity at Stake As Study Finds Inconsistencies With The Ball’ article in Forbes written in 2021.
Baseballs aren’t exactly the same as another. Big deal. How is that responsible for the Pobres offensive woes? You do know the other teams use the same balls you’re calling into question, during games you’re calling into question, right? With the same umpires behind the plate too?
Anyways…
You’re comedic gold, tow. Please keep it coming!
Cardinals and Mets both struggling as well. Similar situations. Dead balls affect offense and so does the strike zone. The numbers are there with the Padres on both counts.
And no, other teams during the same game do not recieve the same ball. That is in fact the premise of this assertion. Padres, Cardinals and Mets are not receiving the same ball or even strike zone during the game. Padres offense in 2022 was near the leagues best in one run games, it’s now the worst. The Padres are near the bottom in league batting average and average with runners in scoring position. A ball called a strike in a crucial situation, a dead ball hit to the warning track with the bases loaded and two outs, ground outs with two men on because a batter has to chase a ball outside the zone called a strike earlier. A ball called a strike putting the batter at an 0-1 count changes the at bat. Happens routinely to Tatis. Then this happens enough and it affects the morale of the entire team and fans blame the players for situations entirely outside of their control. The snowball effect.
@Tow, sorry but it is kind of a ridiculous claim. Yes MLB game used balls should b more uniform. But the notion that MLB is using them to harm teams and their offense is kind of ridiculous. It hurts their brand as offense sells and makes the game more marketable. And some of the last teams they’d want to drag down would b Padres, Mets, and Cards. Those are all teams with some of MLBs most marketable stars.
Now if one wants to claim MLB sneaks in juiced balls to push a situation that is favorable. That seems much more realistic and plausible.
@Tow, and why exactly would MLB want to harm those 3 teams specifically??? What do they have to gain by harming some of the most recognizable names in the sport???
The problem with the offense in San Diego has to do with the “marine layer.” It’s the same thing up here in Seattle. I’m not a weather guru, but the marine layer comes in off the water and definitely dampens the flight of the ball. This is particularly true in the first couple months of the season and again in September. This seems a more likely scenario than varied baseballs. Don’t you think Peter Siedler and Steve Cohen would be a little miffed if MLB decides they had the teams who get the bad balls???
Yeah the notion is utterly asinine and to your point about the owner, we re talking 2 multi billionaires here. With the amount both have put into their teams they’d by all means have MLB in court.
Haha!
My favorite part is how you stomp around in total nonsense as if it were fact, then act as if we all have the myopically deranged ideas.
I can literally picture you standing in front of pie charts & spreadsheets, in your lab coat, as you look up from your notes and remove your glasses while simultaneously shrug your shoulders as if to ask us,”NOW do you get it?’
I’m sure we always disappoint.
But you never do!
Labor negotiations, at least with the the Mets and Padres setting a precedent for an increase in salaries league wide. MLB loves the excitement of large contracts being doled out but like any association, MLB answers to its owners all having an equal stake. To drive negotiations down and set a standard for lower contracts league wide there has to be a noticeable decline warranting it. The two top teams expenditure wise are struggling while teams like the Rays continue to excel justifying lower payrolls. Then, there is how closely MLB is aligned with legalized gambling. That alone calls into question the legitimacy of the sport. The fact that three different balls are in play and there isn’t a standardized strike zone allows for manipulation.
So not sure where you have been for last few decades, but teams such as Yankees, Ted Sox, and Dodgers have been driving up player salaries for decades…. But sure all of a sudden now MLB is taking a stance….
Alonso also is leading MLB in home runs. Ans the Mets lineup as a whole is flawed. Likewise for Pads outside of the big 4. Furthermore for the Mets it was obvious before season even started that their success hinged on their pitching. Which has not been healthy. Not to mention they not only have the oldest roster by average age in MLB but all of American pro sports.
I’m not the only one asserting this. Do a little research friend
Players such as Scherzer complained of the quality of balls as far as consistency. Also introducing favorables balls for guys like Judge in situations marketable for MLB. Nobody has made claims MLB was trying to deliberately harm specific teams or having an agenda against any specific teams. You are running wild taking things out of context trying to spin an absurd narrative.
And to your point, baseball has also allowed the humidor to be utilized for every team. I went to a Royals vs Padres game recently with a heavy Marine layer at Petco. Royals hit a ‘timely’ home run several sections up. Padres barely hit a ball out. To witness it in person simply confirmed this. In one run games this year the Padres are the victim of some rather unusual occurrences. The last Rockies vs Padres game, Soto and Carpenter at Coors hit two balls that should have easily gone out and died at track. Next inning the Rockies back to back hit mammoth home runs to win the game. There are different balls be used.
The one I heard and read about was with Judge. I’m not aware of any other switching out the balls.
And also there are quite few players, yes players having issues with the ball. This isn’t my theory, this is a concern from several major leaguers and not fringe players either.
And the few(not quite a few) but few, have made claims about consistency of the balls. Not some crazy conspiracy as you are proposing.
And the idea that MLB would want KC of all teams to won over Padres. HAHAHAHA
Absurd as the original notion of several balls being in play? That was absurd at the time but has proven to be a factor. Labor negotiations but also and we all know the gambling element as well.
Hey I know what I saw. Every foul ball off the bat of Royals hitters was flying into the stands. There was an extra bounce. Padres were grounding into an obscene amount of groundouts and pop-ups. The ball don’t lie.
Austin Slater of the Giants was contending there were different balls in play. MLB has had a way of suppressing any questions about the ball internally.
HAHA, grounding out a ball and hitting in the air is dependent on swings and watch pitches are swung at. Change the ball however u want and it will not dictate if a ball goes in the air or on the ground. That is just a reality of the game and physics.
It’s a pretty big deal when one team is getting dead balls and another, read the Yankees during Judge’s HR chase, are getting live balls.
I have not read the research on it, but the articles about that research has been clear that while some teams benefitted the last 2 seasons from playing a majority of their games using the 2019 live ball in their home games, others played home games with the new ball exclusively.
May Gray and June Gloom. Tourists, please come to San Diego during those months only. That way the beaches are relatively clear for locals when the good weather hits the rest of the year.
The articles I have read about the research say it has been pretty clear that in 2021 and 2022 some teams got the benefit of using the 2019 ball for their home games while others have only been able to use the new and deader ball.
Just to make myself clear, the articles indicate the research said that the 2019 ball was used in games at those ballparks, not just by the home team.
Is it really that bad there in May and June?
And the idea that MLB would want KC of all teams to won over Padres. HAHAHAHA
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It’s true, Except for 2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018, MLB has been fixing the ball against the Red Sox every year.
And Manfred makes the wind blow in when the RS are at bat.
I assume they did it with the Yankees so that Judge could break the record. It’s a little sketchy, but it doesn’t increase or decrease the Yankees chances of winning.
Padres have not swept a team all year. So there’s that.
I made some recommendations on fixing his swing in a few of the threads so I’m pretty sure I should be credited with getting him back to normal.
Juan, I don’t need much, maybe send me a signed jersey or take me to McD’s for a dollar menu meal. No rush, though. Let me know when you’re free…
Take him to Burger King, Juan. He just told a whopper.
He’s certainly been playing better since that terrible start, but he is still not the Juan Soto of old who was spraying the ball to all fields. He is still pulling everything. He has one extra base hit to the opposite all year which was a MX city HR. Just look at his baseball savant spray chart of this year vs. his last two years.
San Diego is buried in the division and is mired in a six-team fight for the final wild card. They’re already 2.5 games behind in that wild card mess. Good luck to that chronically overrated team.
The Padres should trade Soto to Washington for for Robert Hassell, Jarlin Susana, James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore. 😉
Pretty sure the Nationals would not get him back for those players today.
On June 12th last season, how many of the eventual wild card teams were in their ending spot in the standings?
If you said none, you would be correct. Just 3 of the 6 were in a wild card spot at all. One was leading their division by 5.5 games. One was 10 games back in their division. Another was 9 games back in their division. They went on to play in the WS.
I find it hard to believe he will be exceeding that 440 million number now but getting out of DC is worth at least 100 mil
I don’t understand how soto will get 440+ either but what it will really come down to IMO is what Otanhi gets. In no world is anybody worth more then him I think whatever he gets will get the bar for 3-5 years there may be some that beat him or come close in AAV but Otanhi is going to get 38-45aav over 8-10
Ohtani is an outlier due to his talent and unique marketability, he is not going to set the bar. Yes it ll b looked at as any #s are in negotiations. With Ohtani though teams are not just getting a two way talent, they are getting a player with massive appeal in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc… The amount he is going to get paid he is worth relative to other MLB salaries.
He could always sign a front-loaded, long-term deal with an opt-out after three years. It’s not hard to see him eclipse $440MM.
Soto will have earned something in the ballpark of $60M with the Padres after one more year through arbitration. That leaves around $380M to match what he was offered to stay in DC.
Amazing what a dead ball will do to contract negotiations.
Amazing what a dead ball will do to contract negotiations.
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HRs and OPS are both up over last year by a decent margin.
Wonder if Padres would consider trading Soto to the Yankees for Jason Dominguez, Emerson Perriea and Oswald Peraza. Take the money that might have gone to Soto and try to get Othani signed next year.
Hey like the biggest Yankee’s fan on the planet. I just don’t think that’ll be enough truthfully for Soto. I do see the Padres and the Dodgers both in on Ohtani though. If Ohtani just wants $ count the Mets on him also. I would like to see the Yankees get Ohtani on a rental, just to see if he could pitch in NY. I think he could hit anywhere truthfully. The trading deadline could be fun. We’ll see.
I doubt that the Padres ever get to the point where they give up on the season, let alone 2024. They have too much talent to not at least compete for a wildcard, and only 5.5 behind the LAD, which is where the race might be.
Just like with the NYMs & Philly, they’ve invested too much to go back.
He’s hitless in his last 11 AB. and has a .581 OPS in his last 7 games. What in the world is this article talking about?
While he’s slowed down in June, he still carries a .302/.433/.524 line over the past six weeks. He’s drawn 29 walks against 28 strikeouts while hitting 13 doubles and five home runs over his last 36 contests… it’s literally in the article.
Even Tony Gwynn went a career worst 0 for 19, and he’s the best pure hitter in the last 50 years
Both sides are cherry-picking. No one is saying that he isn’t a very good player. I think what many are saying is that he is averaging 24/600 ABs, with a .248, with a ton of walks.
After that, it is one side taking a favorable time frame, and the other side choosing an unfavorable time frame.
The LOW scoring Padres need a run producing rbi guy, not another overrated, walk two times a game analytics darling.
@mlb fan
Baseball has become overanalyzed to the point that we’re just handing out awards to anyone based on these analytics.
Oh, the guy can’t hit but hey, he’s constantly on base… just no one behind him to drive him in… so… Better give him the OBP award! Everyone gets a trophy!
Luis Arraez is chasing 0.400 and has a much better slash line yet you don’t hear a word about what he’s doing. Arraez knows how to hit the ball. Soto… not so much.
Arraez is chasing .400 which is incredible. Tony Gwynn was the last guy that had a shot at that achievement. I am rooting for Arraez to accomplish it.
Arraez has 1 HR and 15 doubles. He has 80 singles and walks. At the end of his at bats he was on 1B 80 times. He has scored 27 runs. The Marlins are hitting .262 with Arraez on base and .251 with RISP overall
Soto has 10 HR and 16 doubles. He has 90 singles and walks. At the end of his at bats he was on 1B 90 times. Soto has scored 34 runs. He has done that with the Padres hitting .171 when he is on base and .201 with RISP overall.
I sincerely hope Arraez hits .400 this season. How cool would it be to say that he was the first player since Ted Wiliams to hit .400. There is no doubt that he is a punch and judy hitter. There is no power in his game, but any way you cut it .400 is amazing.
If I was starting an expansion team next spring would I choose Arraez over Soto even if he hits .400? No freaking way. Soto has shown he is just a more valuable player and he is 2 years younger.
He’s the second best 24 year old on the Padres
Behind Tatis?
Of course
The Padres need guys to drive in the walk two times a game guy. They are hitting .171 when Soto is on base. Under .200 with RISP overall. THAT is the problem.
That you don’t understand the analytics is on you. EVERY SINGLE TEAM relies on them. If you were smarter than all those guys running the baseball operations across the league, YOU would be running it for some team.
Blew it. Padres hitting .201 with RISP overall
Pads – Very well put my dude
Soto was traded for to be that RBI guy, not a walks machine.
Soto was traded for to be exactly what he has always been, an OBP machine that also hits 25+ HR per season. That is why he is hitting 2nd, not 4th.
Anything else is your imagination.
That is why Padres traded for Soto.
Not to walk, but to drive in runs with clutch hits.
Not to take fastballs right in the heart of the plate looking for walks.
That is a joke and another reason he is over rated.
Vlad Sr. would get hits when the game was on the line.
Soto tries to protect his batting average and passes the buck
to other guys in the lineup
Hard Pass on him as FA.
0000, try paying attention. Soto hits in the #2 spot in the lineup. NOT where you have a guy hit if you see expecting them to drive in runs.
Well, except in your alternate universe apparently.
Got that right!
Need a clutch hitter to deliver winning RBI producing hits, not walks
I have news for all of you morons on here. It’s still early and the Padres can still easily make a run at the playoffs.
Of course that’s true, but since no one said otherwise, your post doesn’t have any relevance.
Isn’t it ultimately about winning? Thought so. Don’t give a crap what you say or think Joe. Judging by your comments you have a baseball iq of ZERO with a very stupid name “Joe Brady”….
Do you get in arguments with walls often?
Isn’t it ultimately about winning?
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Of course that’s true, but since that has absolutely to with my comment, then your post doesn’t have any relevance.
Are there voices in your head that you are arguing with?
He’s been very good but can we start getting more slugging %? He’s been more of a Brandon Nimmo hitter than the guy he used to be. Not even slugging close to slugging 500, let alone 600.
How the F is he only 24 lol
Soto is not quite back to the “one of best in history” level he was with the Nationals, but his 146 OPS+ production so far this season puts him in top 5 among FA over the next 2 offseasons and his 156 career OPS+ makes him the 2nd best among active players after their age 24 or 25 season.
He is going to get paid well. Maybe not the $500 million we will see Ohtani get but being a FA at 25 will put him in line for a $400++ million payday.
OF active players, he will go into FA with the 2nd highest career OPS+ after his age 25 season. Harper had a 139 OPS+. Machado a 121 OPS+. Betts was not a FA after his age 25 season but he had a 134 OPS+.
The only player with a better OPS+ after his age 25 season was Trout who had a 172 OPS+ after 2017 and a year plus later got a 12 yr/$426.5 million extension that started with his age 27 season.
As of today Soto has a career 156 OPS+ and still one more season before he hits FA. If all he does is repeat his 2023 numbers to date in the 2024 season he will still go into FA at age 25 with a 152-154 OPS+.
If he performs only that well and then signs a deal that only takes him to his mid 30s, a 10 year deal, he is going to get Judge money. A $40 million AAV.
Before anyone says “but Judge was better, they are remarkably close in OPS+ and when Soto signs his FA deal will be 6 years younger than Judge was when he signed his. There is a reasonable expectation that Soto may improve and certainly an expectation that he will maintain his production longer than Judge will since he started his deal at 31.
In today’s game, some team will seek to lower the AAV to help them with the CBT threshold by extending the length of the deal and will lock him up until his age 39 or 40 season. 14 or 15 years at $30 million is $420 to $450 million.
Why is MLBTR talking about Soto like this? Is he a trade candidate? They’re not even talking about an extension. They’re just trying to be a stats-y site and not offering anything that’s actually insightful.
Yeah it is a waste of time.
HIs agent probably has a few interns or associates pumping out these stories
and pumping up his stats for the big contract negotiation next years
Soto’s defense is just average of less.
If he keeps his BA over 230 then some of these posters will induct him into
the Hall of Fame next week LMFAO.
Meanwhile, the team Soto was supposed to be the Savior for, the Padres are in 4th place in the NL West.
MLB experts picked the Padres to win the Division and the WS
because Soto was going to “walk on water” on pad be the “stats king”.
So, his 1st 6months in a Padres uni he struggled to stay above the Mendoza line
and his home runs and RBIs went in the tank.
But, he walks alot and that makes the stat heads happy LMFAO.
I don’t pay hundreds of dollars for seats, parking, refreshments, food
to watch that guy walk and take fastballs right down the middle looking for walks.
Padres did not trade 5-6 rop players and prospects for you to walk with guys on base.
Since the Padres are in 4th place and the pressure is off, then he starts hitting a little eh?!
DID I SAY OVER RATED?!?!?
Soto is vastly over rated;
Padres got hosed by the Nats on that deal.
Nats received a young starting SS CJ Abrams (future Trey Turner like player)
2 top young starting highly rated OF prospects Robert Hassel III and James Woods, some top pitching prospects (5 highly rated prospects and a veteran all for Soto?!
I am not seeing it.
The Padres traded their core players of their next, future. long term contender
for an above average hitter and average fielder who cannot carry the team?!
who does not get the clutch hit in the pennant race or playoffs?!
who waits for walks and takes fastballs right down the middle in his wheelhouse.
who seeks to “pump his stats” for the next contract, but is not a “winning player” for his team?!
who plays for individual stats and not to help the team win the Division, get to the World Series and win a Championship?!
HARD PASS ON GIVING SOSO 400M-500M
Padres and Preller are very good at identifying talent.
But, the Padres (AJ Preller) are terrible in trades getting frequently robbed by
sharper GMs in Cleveland, DC, Tampa, Seattle etc.?!
Why is it that the star, veteran players traded to San Diego all seem to “go in the tank”
and don’t play as well as they did for their previous teams?!
Too much partying and hanging out at the beach?!
Something in the water?!
Dunno!
But, it is a very curious factual situation that is happening, repeatedly.
The Soto deal is another big loss for the Padres like the Clevinger deal with the Guardians.
news-herald.com/2022/05/03/guardians-big-winners-i…
None of the players that the National’s got are performing well right now and Soto is being, well, Soto. 4.2 WAR since the trade. 146 OPS+ this season and on pace for 6 WAR this season. I highly doubt the Padres would trade Soto to get back all those players today and remember, the Padres also got Bell who had a .301/.384/.493/.877 slashline with a 153 OPS+ at the time of the trade. It wasn’t just Soto for those prospects.
Circle back and talk to us in 3-5 years when the tables turn dramatically in the Nats favor on this Soto trade.
Soto will be playing elsewhere and the Padres will be watching 3 or 4 of their farm hands on the All Star team in Nats uniforms (and Guardians, Rays, Mariners etc uniforms).
I will circle back 5 days later. Abrams is at a negative WAR since the trade and declining fast. Hassell is in his 2nd straight season of struggling at the plate, the only thing he does well. Wood is striking out 35% of the time in the minors. That does not bode well for him playing well at the major league level. You can count on the fingers of one hand the number of guys that had that bad of pitch selection at A= and AA level and become anything other than bench players. Susana is having control issues. He is 19 in low A so at best he is up for the 2027 season. If he does make it, with what we are seeing now this it will be as a reliever. You cant have a starter walking 6-7 guys a game.
The ONLY player likely to be playing in a Nationals uniform over the next 5 seasons is Gore. A guy with an era around 4 and who puts up slightly better than league average performance overall.
Gore MIGHT make it as the Nationals All Star selection which is a testament to just how bad that team is this year. Even that is unlikely because there are two other players, Gray and Thomas that are having better seasons. The Nationals will only get one token All Star representative.
Anything else you care to be totally wrong about?
Anyone who would circle back and rate a huge trade like this in 5 days
is someone who would never get hired in any Front Office in any capacity evaluating players, trades, free agents etc.
Experts will tell you that a trade this big takes at least 5 years to evaluate properly.
Your comments might be OK on beer night with the guys or a fantasy league, but would completely fall flat in the real world of professional talent evaluation.
You don’t actually know how to read, do you? Multiple people have blown your argument out of the water.
What are you going on about?! Post makes no sense.
SF00, None of your posts make any sense.
They are “over your head” obviously.
Ask any smart GM to evaluate a huge trade involving present MLB talent and top prospects in just 5 days, and the highly successful ones say that is impossible to do. accurately.
I’m sure he was being facetious
Is Soto chewing betel nuts? Sure looks like it.