Early in the year, there was a decent amount of trepidation about Juan Soto. The Padres superstar was still reaching base at an excellent clip but was clearly performing below his established level. Soto carried a .202/.373/.384 line across 126 plate appearances through the end of April. That came on the heels of a .236/.388/.390 showing in 52 games last summer after one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history.
For most players, those numbers wouldn’t be cause for concern. While the batting averages weren’t eye-catching, consistently excellent walk tallies kept the on-base mark at an elite level. Among qualified hitters, Soto ranked 12th in the majors with a .382 OBP between the time of the trade and the start of this May.
By Soto’s standards, though, that production was a disappointment. He’d been a top-five hitter in MLB virtually from the moment he was promoted as a 19-year-old five seasons back. For him to hit only 11 homers with a .388 slugging percentage through his first 81 games as a Padre was a surprise. A .254 average on balls in play certainly didn’t do him any favors, but the three-time Silver Slugger also seemed relatively out of sorts. In mid-April, he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post he felt he was pulling off too many pitches, resulting in weak ground-ball contact to the pull side.
As the season has gone on, Soto has more consistently found his power stroke. He caught fire in May, hitting .333/.482/.632, resulting in a 202 wRC+ that ranked third among qualified hitters that month. While he’s slowed down in June, he still carries a .302/.433/.524 line over the past six weeks. He’s drawn 29 walks against 28 strikeouts while hitting 13 doubles and five home runs over his last 36 contests.
That’s essentially the kind of production we’ve come to expect from Soto. He’s a career .282/.422/.520 hitter in just under 3000 plate appearances. He’s played essentially at that pace for a month and a half. The beginning of May is an arbitrary endpoint, of course. There’s nothing more meaningful about May 1 than there would be about April 26. It’s nevertheless encouraging to see Soto performing at his typical Nationals level for an extended stretch.
Soto is still pulling the ball on the ground a little more often than he had in prior seasons. That’s not ideal given his April comments about getting out in front of too many pitches. When he puts the ball in the air, though, he’s hitting it harder than he did at the start of the year.
The contact quality was the only potential concern. His strike zone discipline has never wavered. Soto sustaining this level will be crucial for a club that still hasn’t kicked things into gear. His hot stretch coincided with a Manny Machado injury and a dismal recent run of play from Xander Bogaerts. The offense as a whole has yet to get going, leaving the Padres with a 31-34 record heading into tonight’s series opener with the Guardians.
Fortunately for San Diego, few teams in the National League have separated themselves from the pack. The Padres are looking up at a 9.5-game deficit on the Diamondbacks in the NL West, which will obviously be difficult to close, even with more than three months remaining on the schedule. However, they’re only two and a half games behind the Giants and Brewers for the Senior Circuit’s last Wild Card spot. Aside from the Dodgers, no team in the Wild Card mix has a better run differential than San Diego’s +19 figure. Despite the mediocre start, there’s still plenty of time for the Friars to play their way into the postseason picture.
Soto should be a central part of that effort. His start in San Diego raised some eyebrows, but he’s looked much more like himself over the last six weeks. Continued production like that should quiet questions about whether his camp had made a grave mistake turning down a reported $440MM extension offer from Washington before the trade. He has a chance to make last summer and this April look like a blip. He looks on his way to doing so.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Now, without that guaranteed TV contract money coming in, will he see it from SD?? Reportedly, they had $60M/season from the TV contract that is now defunct with MLB stepping in, at least for the rest of the season. I can imagine another TV contract being hammered out, but when? Until then, would they really commit that kind of money not knowing?
The beginning of May is an arbitrary endpoint,
========================
Whatever start you have is almost by definition, arbitrary.
But before proclaiming his return, one should consider more than one start point.
For example, his OPS in his 14 games (cherry-picked since his last HR), is a robust-not .616. As a roto player, I would still gamble on him, but certainly wouldn’t be paying the premium his original slot suggested.
His numbers, from various angles, do not suggest he is back.
ANYONE with a 146 OPS+ is back. From any angle you want to look at that is incredibly good.
A 146+ is not back from what he was with the Nats (160+).
And incredibly good is relative. Compared to the 100+ players, sure. Compared to the universe of $300M+ players, not so very much. He has a 4.2 bWAR with SD in 511 PAs. Feel free to disagree, but that doesn’t sound like a $450M player.
@JB 511 PAs isn’t that large of a sample size in the grand scheme of a lengthy career Soto will have. He has 2950 PAs so far. One can cherry-pick a stretch of 500 PAs from any of the top 100 HOF hitters and find a bWAR less than Soto’s 4.2.
Top 20 overall in baseball is incredibly good compared to other players. Compared to all other 24 year players its incredible. He is the best 24 year old hitter in baseball. He has the highest WAR of any 24 year old player in baseball. Among players that are currently making $25+ million AAV or that will be a FA after this season or next season he ranks 5th in OPS+ and 4th in wRC+. That is pretty incredible too.
Having at 146 OPS+ at age 24 makes him a $30 million per season player when he becomes a FA and some team is going to lock him up for 14-15 years. You do the math.
I agree that it is a relatively small size, but it still matters. To be honest, I don’t know what to make of him. In the past three seasons, he’s averaged 29 HRs with a .273, but with an insane amount of walks. It is difficult to evaluate a player whose value rests so much on his walk rate.
That means Soto is on pace for a 5.4 bWAR in his first 162 team games with the Padres even though he had a terrible 2 months with them at the end of 2022. That does sound like a $450 million player to me if you are talking about a 15-year extension at the end of 2023 or a 14-year FA contract at the end of 2024.
There is no way he is getting less than $30 million AAV being the 2nd best hitter with 5+ seasons under their belt coming into their age 25 season since FA started. Arod wasn’t as good. Griffey wasn’t as good. Only Trout has been better. That is some elite company and its going to get him paid.
I would bet that if the contract is short, 10-11 years, it’s going to be at a $40 million AAV whether it’s an extension in the offseason or a FA deal at the end of next season.
5 days later Soto is on Pace for a 6.2 WAR.
Exit velocity-elite
Max exit velocity-elite
Base on balls-elite
Hard hit %-elite
On base % -elite
Slugging %-elite
Barrel % -elite
Chase rate- non-existent
Yeah clearly the guy is not back. The only question is his strike out rate increasing.
I would still compare him to Adam Dunn. Walks, hits HRs, but not a defensive plus, nor a plus Runner. Expect him to need to DH more as he ages. I would not offer what Washington offered. Not worth that contract.
I liked watching big donkey as much as the next baseball enjoyer, but I think Soto is quite a bit better
No worries the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and others will all be lining up for his services if the ever hits free agency.
*he
Stevie Cohen’s beautiful money.
He isn’t over 35 years old. The Mets won’t sign him.
Lol Soto isn’t a TTO player. At 24, he hasn’t even reached his prime years yet.
Baseball Reference dot com says these are the hitters similar to Juan Soto: Ronald Acuna Jr., Kal Daniels, Teoscar Hernández, Bob Cerv, Mitch Haniger, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger, Shohei Ohtani and George Selkirk.
Dunn never had a season as good as Soto in a down year.
Soto is an above average player, but WAY overrated. He’s an on-base machine(albeit without speed), complimentary player with below average defense/baserunning. Comparing him to Adam Dunn is rather ridiculous, because there’s almost ZERO similarities.
Dunn was a horrendously bad defensive player and didn’t produce as well in his best seasons that Soto does in his worst seasons.
Soso is not worth all the talent the Padres gave to the Nats for him.
Whether Soto or anyone else, paying a bunch of guys really well rather than a ton guaranteed to a single player is wiser in baseball. Houston and Atlanta have been showing that formula of disciplined generosity around well-rounded players.
Atlanta has done and amazing job acquiring young talent and extending them early at a discount. I really wouldn’t consider that so much spreading it around. Houston also has been loaded with young talent they did an excellent job acquiring. Houston more so than ATL has added some big veteran pieces here and there. The catalyst to both teams success tho has been young talent.
How is allocating payroll resources among many key guys not spreading it around? Correa wanted top $ and Hou wasn’t giving in w/his injury history (wise), Springer hurt a lot (moved on), Verlander this offseason. They extended Alvarez as bigger priority & might w/Tucker or Valdez. Atl drew a line with Freeman n got younger Olson when he dragged things out, extended Riley over Swanson. Strong organizations pay well, but don’t consider any 1 player a must to retain at silly $ or years. FO’s that pay retail are not virtuous for spending-they are the target prey of agents.
Spreading it around would b a team such as the Giants when they ll target specific free agents. By and large Houston has been winning with young controllable talent. I don’t view the cost of young controllable talent as being spread around. It is a cost every team carries. HOU just has not been spending on free agents they have been letting them walk not spreading anything amongst them.
Freeman took less money than the Braves were offering in order to get away from that FO.
Atlanta has a $245 million CBT payroll. They have $750 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2024 to 2028. It’s not like they are scrimping on contracts.
Soto over the last 2 weeks: .244/.340/.289 for a .629 OPS and a a 79 wRC+. But sure, oooooookay.
He had a 5 for 5 game. That’s been the high point of his hitting recently. Yes 5 for 5 is great, but I’d rather see a hitter whose batting well consistently most days.
THE DEAD BALL and THE STRIKE ZONE that the Padres have recieved for years is the reason for his struggles. A majority of stars who joined the Padres struggle after joining them due to the DEAD BALL in conjuction with a SKEWED STRIKE ZONE the Padres have recieved for years. Other teams routinely hit deep homers at Petco vs the Padres players hitting warning track shots and grounding out. When last years home run champion struggles to hit for power with the Padres you know there is something going on. I swear, and a good amount of MLB players Max Sherzer and Rich Hill as well as Austin Slater have asserted there are multiple balls in play. It’s easy to manipulate games and outcomes and the Padres have been on the reviewing end of that for years.
I made some recommendations on fixing his swing in a few of the threads so I’m pretty sure I should be credited with getting him back to normal.
Juan, I don’t need much, maybe send me a signed jersey or take me to McD’s for a dollar menu meal. No rush, though. Let me know when you’re free…
Take him to Burger King, Juan. He just told a whopper.
He’s certainly been playing better since that terrible start, but he is still not the Juan Soto of old who was spraying the ball to all fields. He is still pulling everything. He has one extra base hit to the opposite all year which was a MX city HR. Just look at his baseball savant spray chart of this year vs. his last two years.
San Diego is buried in the division and is mired in a six-team fight for the final wild card. They’re already 2.5 games behind in that wild card mess. Good luck to that chronically overrated team.
The Padres should trade Soto to Washington for for Robert Hassell, Jarlin Susana, James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore. 😉
Pretty sure the Nationals would not get him back for those players today.
On June 12th last season, how many of the eventual wild card teams were in their ending spot in the standings?
If you said none, you would be correct. Just 3 of the 6 were in a wild card spot at all. One was leading their division by 5.5 games. One was 10 games back in their division. Another was 9 games back in their division. They went on to play in the WS.
I find it hard to believe he will be exceeding that 440 million number now but getting out of DC is worth at least 100 mil
I don’t understand how soto will get 440+ either but what it will really come down to IMO is what Otanhi gets. In no world is anybody worth more then him I think whatever he gets will get the bar for 3-5 years there may be some that beat him or come close in AAV but Otanhi is going to get 38-45aav over 8-10
Ohtani is an outlier due to his talent and unique marketability, he is not going to set the bar. Yes it ll b looked at as any #s are in negotiations. With Ohtani though teams are not just getting a two way talent, they are getting a player with massive appeal in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc… The amount he is going to get paid he is worth relative to other MLB salaries.
He could always sign a front-loaded, long-term deal with an opt-out after three years. It’s not hard to see him eclipse $440MM.
Soto will have earned something in the ballpark of $60M with the Padres after one more year through arbitration. That leaves around $380M to match what he was offered to stay in DC.
Amazing what a dead ball will do to contract negotiations.
Amazing what a dead ball will do to contract negotiations.
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HRs and OPS are both up over last year by a decent margin.
Wonder if Padres would consider trading Soto to the Yankees for Jason Dominguez, Emerson Perriea and Oswald Peraza. Take the money that might have gone to Soto and try to get Othani signed next year.
Hey like the biggest Yankee’s fan on the planet. I just don’t think that’ll be enough truthfully for Soto. I do see the Padres and the Dodgers both in on Ohtani though. If Ohtani just wants $ count the Mets on him also. I would like to see the Yankees get Ohtani on a rental, just to see if he could pitch in NY. I think he could hit anywhere truthfully. The trading deadline could be fun. We’ll see.
I doubt that the Padres ever get to the point where they give up on the season, let alone 2024. They have too much talent to not at least compete for a wildcard, and only 5.5 behind the LAD, which is where the race might be.
Just like with the NYMs & Philly, they’ve invested too much to go back.
He’s hitless in his last 11 AB. and has a .581 OPS in his last 7 games. What in the world is this article talking about?
While he’s slowed down in June, he still carries a .302/.433/.524 line over the past six weeks. He’s drawn 29 walks against 28 strikeouts while hitting 13 doubles and five home runs over his last 36 contests… it’s literally in the article.
Even Tony Gwynn went a career worst 0 for 19, and he’s the best pure hitter in the last 50 years
Both sides are cherry-picking. No one is saying that he isn’t a very good player. I think what many are saying is that he is averaging 24/600 ABs, with a .248, with a ton of walks.
After that, it is one side taking a favorable time frame, and the other side choosing an unfavorable time frame.
The LOW scoring Padres need a run producing rbi guy, not another overrated, walk two times a game analytics darling.
@mlb fan
Baseball has become overanalyzed to the point that we’re just handing out awards to anyone based on these analytics.
Oh, the guy can’t hit but hey, he’s constantly on base… just no one behind him to drive him in… so… Better give him the OBP award! Everyone gets a trophy!
Luis Arraez is chasing 0.400 and has a much better slash line yet you don’t hear a word about what he’s doing. Arraez knows how to hit the ball. Soto… not so much.
Arraez is chasing .400 which is incredible. Tony Gwynn was the last guy that had a shot at that achievement. I am rooting for Arraez to accomplish it.
Arraez has 1 HR and 15 doubles. He has 80 singles and walks. At the end of his at bats he was on 1B 80 times. He has scored 27 runs. The Marlins are hitting .262 with Arraez on base and .251 with RISP overall
Soto has 10 HR and 16 doubles. He has 90 singles and walks. At the end of his at bats he was on 1B 90 times. Soto has scored 34 runs. He has done that with the Padres hitting .171 when he is on base and .201 with RISP overall.
I sincerely hope Arraez hits .400 this season. How cool would it be to say that he was the first player since Ted Wiliams to hit .400. There is no doubt that he is a punch and judy hitter. There is no power in his game, but any way you cut it .400 is amazing.
If I was starting an expansion team next spring would I choose Arraez over Soto even if he hits .400? No freaking way. Soto has shown he is just a more valuable player and he is 2 years younger.
He’s the second best 24 year old on the Padres
Behind Tatis?
Of course
The Padres need guys to drive in the walk two times a game guy. They are hitting .171 when Soto is on base. Under .200 with RISP overall. THAT is the problem.
That you don’t understand the analytics is on you. EVERY SINGLE TEAM relies on them. If you were smarter than all those guys running the baseball operations across the league, YOU would be running it for some team.
Blew it. Padres hitting .201 with RISP overall
Pads – Very well put my dude
Soto was traded for to be that RBI guy, not a walks machine.
Soto was traded for to be exactly what he has always been, an OBP machine that also hits 25+ HR per season. That is why he is hitting 2nd, not 4th.
Anything else is your imagination.
That is why Padres traded for Soto.
Not to walk, but to drive in runs with clutch hits.
Not to take fastballs right in the heart of the plate looking for walks.
That is a joke and another reason he is over rated.
Vlad Sr. would get hits when the game was on the line.
Soto tries to protect his batting average and passes the buck
to other guys in the lineup
Hard Pass on him as FA.
0000, try paying attention. Soto hits in the #2 spot in the lineup. NOT where you have a guy hit if you see expecting them to drive in runs.
Well, except in your alternate universe apparently.
Got that right!
Need a clutch hitter to deliver winning RBI producing hits, not walks
I have news for all of you morons on here. It’s still early and the Padres can still easily make a run at the playoffs.
Of course that’s true, but since no one said otherwise, your post doesn’t have any relevance.
Isn’t it ultimately about winning? Thought so. Don’t give a crap what you say or think Joe. Judging by your comments you have a baseball iq of ZERO with a very stupid name “Joe Brady”….
Do you get in arguments with walls often?
Isn’t it ultimately about winning?
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Of course that’s true, but since that has absolutely to with my comment, then your post doesn’t have any relevance.
Are there voices in your head that you are arguing with?
He’s been very good but can we start getting more slugging %? He’s been more of a Brandon Nimmo hitter than the guy he used to be. Not even slugging close to slugging 500, let alone 600.
How the F is he only 24 lol
Soto is not quite back to the “one of best in history” level he was with the Nationals, but his 146 OPS+ production so far this season puts him in top 5 among FA over the next 2 offseasons and his 156 career OPS+ makes him the 2nd best among active players after their age 24 or 25 season.
He is going to get paid well. Maybe not the $500 million we will see Ohtani get but being a FA at 25 will put him in line for a $400++ million payday.
OF active players, he will go into FA with the 2nd highest career OPS+ after his age 25 season. Harper had a 139 OPS+. Machado a 121 OPS+. Betts was not a FA after his age 25 season but he had a 134 OPS+.
The only player with a better OPS+ after his age 25 season was Trout who had a 172 OPS+ after 2017 and a year plus later got a 12 yr/$426.5 million extension that started with his age 27 season.
As of today Soto has a career 156 OPS+ and still one more season before he hits FA. If all he does is repeat his 2023 numbers to date in the 2024 season he will still go into FA at age 25 with a 152-154 OPS+.
If he performs only that well and then signs a deal that only takes him to his mid 30s, a 10 year deal, he is going to get Judge money. A $40 million AAV.
Before anyone says “but Judge was better, they are remarkably close in OPS+ and when Soto signs his FA deal will be 6 years younger than Judge was when he signed his. There is a reasonable expectation that Soto may improve and certainly an expectation that he will maintain his production longer than Judge will since he started his deal at 31.
In today’s game, some team will seek to lower the AAV to help them with the CBT threshold by extending the length of the deal and will lock him up until his age 39 or 40 season. 14 or 15 years at $30 million is $420 to $450 million.
Why is MLBTR talking about Soto like this? Is he a trade candidate? They’re not even talking about an extension. They’re just trying to be a stats-y site and not offering anything that’s actually insightful.
Yeah it is a waste of time.
HIs agent probably has a few interns or associates pumping out these stories
and pumping up his stats for the big contract negotiation next years
Soto’s defense is just average of less.
If he keeps his BA over 230 then some of these posters will induct him into
the Hall of Fame next week LMFAO.
Meanwhile, the team Soto was supposed to be the Savior for, the Padres are in 4th place in the NL West.
MLB experts picked the Padres to win the Division and the WS
because Soto was going to “walk on water” on pad be the “stats king”.
So, his 1st 6months in a Padres uni he struggled to stay above the Mendoza line
and his home runs and RBIs went in the tank.
But, he walks alot and that makes the stat heads happy LMFAO.
I don’t pay hundreds of dollars for seats, parking, refreshments, food
to watch that guy walk and take fastballs right down the middle looking for walks.
Padres did not trade 5-6 rop players and prospects for you to walk with guys on base.
Since the Padres are in 4th place and the pressure is off, then he starts hitting a little eh?!
DID I SAY OVER RATED?!?!?
Soto is vastly over rated;
Padres got hosed by the Nats on that deal.
Nats received a young starting SS CJ Abrams (future Trey Turner like player)
2 top young starting highly rated OF prospects Robert Hassel III and James Woods, some top pitching prospects (5 highly rated prospects and a veteran all for Soto?!
I am not seeing it.
The Padres traded their core players of their next, future. long term contender
for an above average hitter and average fielder who cannot carry the team?!
who does not get the clutch hit in the pennant race or playoffs?!
who waits for walks and takes fastballs right down the middle in his wheelhouse.
who seeks to “pump his stats” for the next contract, but is not a “winning player” for his team?!
who plays for individual stats and not to help the team win the Division, get to the World Series and win a Championship?!
HARD PASS ON GIVING SOSO 400M-500M
Padres and Preller are very good at identifying talent.
But, the Padres (AJ Preller) are terrible in trades getting frequently robbed by
sharper GMs in Cleveland, DC, Tampa, Seattle etc.?!
Why is it that the star, veteran players traded to San Diego all seem to “go in the tank”
and don’t play as well as they did for their previous teams?!
Too much partying and hanging out at the beach?!
Something in the water?!
Dunno!
But, it is a very curious factual situation that is happening, repeatedly.
The Soto deal is another big loss for the Padres like the Clevinger deal with the Guardians.
news-herald.com/2022/05/03/guardians-big-winners-i…
None of the players that the National’s got are performing well right now and Soto is being, well, Soto. 4.2 WAR since the trade. 146 OPS+ this season and on pace for 6 WAR this season. I highly doubt the Padres would trade Soto to get back all those players today and remember, the Padres also got Bell who had a .301/.384/.493/.877 slashline with a 153 OPS+ at the time of the trade. It wasn’t just Soto for those prospects.
Circle back and talk to us in 3-5 years when the tables turn dramatically in the Nats favor on this Soto trade.
Soto will be playing elsewhere and the Padres will be watching 3 or 4 of their farm hands on the All Star team in Nats uniforms (and Guardians, Rays, Mariners etc uniforms).
I will circle back 5 days later. Abrams is at a negative WAR since the trade and declining fast. Hassell is in his 2nd straight season of struggling at the plate, the only thing he does well. Wood is striking out 35% of the time in the minors. That does not bode well for him playing well at the major league level. You can count on the fingers of one hand the number of guys that had that bad of pitch selection at A= and AA level and become anything other than bench players. Susana is having control issues. He is 19 in low A so at best he is up for the 2027 season. If he does make it, with what we are seeing now this it will be as a reliever. You cant have a starter walking 6-7 guys a game.
The ONLY player likely to be playing in a Nationals uniform over the next 5 seasons is Gore. A guy with an era around 4 and who puts up slightly better than league average performance overall.
Gore MIGHT make it as the Nationals All Star selection which is a testament to just how bad that team is this year. Even that is unlikely because there are two other players, Gray and Thomas that are having better seasons. The Nationals will only get one token All Star representative.
Anything else you care to be totally wrong about?
Anyone who would circle back and rate a huge trade like this in 5 days
is someone who would never get hired in any Front Office in any capacity evaluating players, trades, free agents etc.
Experts will tell you that a trade this big takes at least 5 years to evaluate properly.
Your comments might be OK on beer night with the guys or a fantasy league, but would completely fall flat in the real world of professional talent evaluation.
You don’t actually know how to read, do you? Multiple people have blown your argument out of the water.
What are you going on about?! Post makes no sense.
SF00, None of your posts make any sense.
They are “over your head” obviously.
Ask any smart GM to evaluate a huge trade involving present MLB talent and top prospects in just 5 days, and the highly successful ones say that is impossible to do. accurately.
I’m sure he was being facetious
Is Soto chewing betel nuts? Sure looks like it.