The Guardians today optioned left-hander Logan Allen to Triple-A and recalled right-hander Michael Kelly in a corresponding move, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. The move seemingly opens up a rotation spot for righty Cal Quantrill, who is currently on the injured list but scheduled to start tomorrow’s game.
This move highlights the rotation surplus in Cleveland. Allen, 24, was considered by many evaluators to be one of the top 100 prospects in the game coming into this season. He was promoted to the big leagues just over two months ago and has done little to dampen his stock. He has a 3.47 ERA through 62 1/3 innings in 12 starts. He’s struck out 22.9% of opponents, walked 8.7% of them and gotten grounders on 44.3% of balls in play. He might be getting a bit of a boost from a 79.9% strand rate, but his 3.70 FIP and 4.28 SIERA still suggest he’s been solid overall.
Most clubs would love to have that kind of performance. That may not be the production of an ace but it would make him a serviceable mid-rotation arm in any of the 29 other rotations. The Guardians, however, are spoiled in this department.
They have three more-established arms in Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Quantrill. The latter had a 5.61 ERA before landing on the injured list but has been much better in previous campaigns, with a 3.38 ERA last year and a 2.89 the year before. Bieber and Civale are having solid results, with ERAs of 3.69 and 3.18, respectively. Then the Guards also have two other top 100 prospects they promoted this year: Tanner Bibee has a 3.79 ERA while Gavin Williams is at 2.84 through his first two career starts.
Despite Triston McKenzie being shut down due to a sprain of his UCL, Zach Plesac struggling to the point of being outrighted off the roster and Daniel Espino, yet another top 100 prospect, requiring season-ending shoulder surgery, they still have so much pitching that Allen has been squeezed out. It’s possible this is just a short-term option, with Allen essentially being given an early start on the upcoming All-Star break, but there’s still obviously a logjam here. General manager Mike Chernoff suggested as much (link via Bell), implying that sending Allen to Columbus will allow the team to monitor his workload a bit. “While he’s down, he doesn’t have to go out and throw 100 [pitches] and try to prove something,” Chernoff said of Allen.
Even with all of that starting pitching, however, the club is below .500 at 39-40 thanks to their tepid offense. The team as a whole has hit .248/.313/.375 for a wRC+ of 90, placing them 24th out of the 30 clubs in terms of overall production. But with the weak American League Central, that record is enough for the Guardians to currently possess the top spot in the division, half a game up on the Twins.
All of that will give the Guardians’ front office much to think about. With the expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions, there are very few clubs that make for obvious sellers. Teams that are clearly in the seller lane like the Athletics or Nationals have already sold many of their most appealing players. That creates the possibility for more deals between contenders this year, trading from areas of surplus in order to address areas of need.
There are many contending clubs that could use a rotation upgrade, either due to injury or underperformance, and the Guards would get plenty of interest if they made any of their arms available. They could certainly entertain the idea of moving one of their rookies for some kind of blockbuster, but the more likely path would be moving one of the more experienced arms. The low-budget Cleveland club has operated this way for many years, often trading away players in their arbitration years as they get more expensive and closer to free agency.
Each of Bieber, Civale and Quantrill would fit this bill. Bieber is making $10.01MM this year and slated for one more pass through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2024. His strikeout rate and velocity are both down compared to previous years but he’s still keeping earned runs off the board. Each of Civale and Quantrill have one extra year of control beyond that, slated for the open market after 2025. Civale is making $2.6MM this year while Quantrill is earning $5.5MM.
Each of those individuals would garner varying levels of interest based on how highly they are valued by other clubs, but each undoubtedly has value and could potentially land the Guardians some kind of offensive upgrade. Another injury or two before the August 1 deadline would obviously change their calculus, but the ingredients seem to be in place for the Guardians to be a team to watch over the next month.
Wow – now that’s starting pitching depth most teams don’t have. Also – McKenzie on the IL.
I get they needed a roster spot, but Allen may have pitched better his year than any other starter.
They still have a chance to win the crummy AL Central in 2023 (2024 and beyond are not looking good at all). So I’d suspect Allen will be back – as the article notes, a good chance a starter gets dealt at the deadline (could well be Quantrill).
This will be the worst division in baseball in 2024 and the Indians should be the favorite to win it again next year.
They have 4 building block starters in McKenzie, Bibee, Allen, and Williams. & They’ll move Bieber at some point for a haul.
Bstrowman9;
1. They’re not getting a haul for Bieber.
2. They have too many LH hitters, and short of Rameriz no one in their line-up remotely scares opposition teams.
They have a lot of decent position players, but they need 2 RH run producers.
They’ll get some prospects for Bieber. The lineup needs help. Naylor is also a threat. But needing 2 RH run producers is a much easier solved problem in the off-season than needing a rotation and bullpen. They’re more than covered in that area. They have some surplus in other areas to make a deal. They do that and I’m confident that they’ll be in a good spot.
P.S. you balked at me for saying Gimenez wouldn’t produce close to last season. He’s not. Still like their team the most out of the weak central.
Meanwhile everyone else is salivating at Cleveland’s problem of too much pitching! Logan Allen would be on everyone else’s roster.
This is ridiculous. Allen has earned a roster spot.
Lot of teams need starters. The Indians need a shortstop. Why not make a trade?
They don’t need a SS. They actually have a glut of middle infielders from AA through the majors. They need a RF more than anything.
Starling Marte, and Drew Smith for Bieber, Bell, and Karinchak and Straw. It’s a change of scenery deal for Marte and Smith as well as Karinchak. It helps clear Bieber and Straw and Bell money off their books. It gets Cleveland a right fielder with some pop, who can go get it and with a gun for an arm, and some speed on the bases.
Mets rotation may actually get younger with Bieber, lol.
EasternLeagueVeteran;
You clearly are a NYC educated baseball fan.
Hey, how about the Mets throw in David Peterson and Cleveland adds in Jose Ramirez?
And if Cleveland needs a DH, they can have Dan Vogelbach, too. The Mets could then give more at-bats to Narvaez from the left side, or let Bell handle all DH at bats.
EasternLeagueVeteran;
LOL
Yes, like all small market teams, the Cleveland Guardians exist to trade their best player to the Mets and Yankees for crap.
A pity it isn’t the 1980’s for you guys anymore. Even though the playing field isn’t remotely level, you guys still can’t compete with the 2 highest payrolls in MLB. Hard to tell who’s dumber – NYC baseball franchise owners and their FO people or their baseball fans.
They actually changed their name to the Guardians
You are supposed to capitalize first names……actually…….
It had to be one of Bibee, Allen and Williams.. all three of which will have their workload strictly managed this year. Allen has a bright future but he was the logical choice since he has been struggling to give the team any sort of length his last few starts.
We haven’t seen the last of Allen this year, I imagine.
This is 100% a load management thing. Allen, Bibee, and Williams all cannot be asked to go much more than 150 IP this year and if they’re left in the MLB rotation they’ll have to.
Allen pitched 132 IP last year, already at 76.2 this year
Williams 115 IP last year, at 71 this year
Bibee 133 last year, 74.2 this year
They have 82 games left. Each guy would be slated to go another 16 starts, and at 5 IP/start they would each get 80 more innings, all of them would be over 150 IP.
The more concerning one is Williams. You can probably argue that 150 IP is about right for stepping up Bibee and Allen’s workload. Williams getting to 150 would be like a 33% increase in load which is considered too much and an injury risk. The old idea of Verducci was never increase by more than 30 IP year over year. Williams might blow by that by end of August and then the team will be right in the thick of a playoff push.
This.
Col – spot on. Things will get very interesting late in the year.
Given how things with the rotation have panned out this year, seems to me they are less likely to trade Bieber before the deadline.
Logan Allen for Christian Encarnacion-Strand? Comments?
Talent wise seems reasonable but do the Guardians have a place to play Strand?
They can sit Jose Ramirez on the bench.
I’m thinking we’ll see him again after Bieber is dealt. I keep seeing his name pop up since team control is down to one more year. Surely they’re going to get some value out of one of these guys rather than have a 3.5 ERA SP rotting away in the minors. I agree that the Reds seem like a perfect trade partner.
How about Bieber for Tommy Edman? I suggested this the other day and Guardians fans acted like it was crazy. Looking at their roster it looks like there is a giant hole at shortstop. Edman can play other positions too he’s really a nice player to have but the Cardinals have Donovan and Winn on the way.
It’s because they have 4 players on the major league roster and several more at AAA who are shortstops by trade. CLE has zero need for middle infielders. They need a RF.
Rosario is a negative win player and is a soon to be free agent.
Quantity doesn’t equal quality. I don’t see anyone on the Guardians who is ready to start at shortstop in 2024.
And Tommy Edman can play outfield too.
Guardians can have ONeill too. He’s under team control through 2024 and at that point Valera should be ready
You can’t read,,,,,
Cleveland is full of SS’s and they have 3 guys that can play CF.
People keep saying Cleveland has lots of shortstops. But they don’t have anyone proven the only proven one is Rosario and he’s a negative win player and soon to be free agent.
And who is playing center??? There are not 3 centerfielders on the roster that’s total nonsense.
King of Cards;
When’s the last time you watched a Guardians game?
Do you have a clue about how that FO builds teams and rosters? More or less the same FO has been there for a decade. Can’t figure that out?
How’s your Rotisserie League doing?
P.S. Gimenez, Freeman, Rocchio.
P.S.S. Straw, Brennan, Arias, and Kwan.
P.S.S.S.. Why does your ineffective team keep playing their position players out of position? Why does their pitching suck year after year? Why do those well paid and publicized players have no idea how to play winning baseball? How can your team be in last place in a terrible division?
P.S.S.S.S. If you see me in trouble….DON’T HELP ME!!!!!
Samuel
Really? Pretty sure the Cardinals have forgotten more about winning baseball than the Guardians will ever know.
Giminez is a 2b. Freeman is a nobody and Rocchio is so good he’s at AAA right now.
Straw, Brennan and Kwan are the 3 starting outfielders. They can’t all play center.
I don’t get it. If your team has a need somewhere and enough talent that they just sent Allen down why wouldn’t you want to upgrade at the positions that are weakest?
The Cardinals have been contenders for the last 15 years. First time in a long time I am even discussing selling talent at the trade deadline and people act as if they don’t want to win in 2023.
Whatever man. Good luck being you.
I just looked it up.
Arias has zero big league innings in center.
Kwan has 30
Brennan has 42
72 innings total between the 3 of them. That’s 8 games.
Perhaps it’s you who needs to tune into Indians games.
Did you look up how many games Edman had played in CF at the major league level before the Cardinals moved him there?
You’re a petty person picking an argument over nothing that the Cleveland FO would consider……nor would the Cardinals FO call them with such a stupid proposal as it’s an insult.
Just what Cleveland needs – a guy hitting .232 with an OPS below .700…..and I like Edman.
You’re talking about trading him for a 28 year-old Cy Young winner with 1-1/2 years of control. Yes, Bieber’s not pitching as well as he has – although he did shut out the Royals today for 6 innings with 8 K’s and shut out the Astros 2 starts ago for 7 innings with 9 K’s.
You try to get me in these stupid arguments again and I’ll mute you.
Samuel
Mute me? Good lord dude you sound like a child.
You said Clevelend has 3 centerfielders and that’s totally false. Just own it.
Edman isn’t a center fielder either but he can play there. The need is shortstop Rosario is a soon to be free agent playing poorly. Rocchio is small and not that great. Freeman isn’t anything special he’s more of a utility guy. The Indians need a shortstop.
Edman has an extra year of team control. Did you know that? You do now.
How about Encarnacion-Strand and others for Bieber? (Maybe Phillips and a couple others).
Also, Encarnacion Strand would be our DH. We would find a way to jettison Bell, even if it meant paying a substantial part of next year’s salary.
U want CES plus Connor Phillips and more for 1.5 years of Bieber? Whose K rate is now down to under 7 per 9 innings this season. Holy crap
Sure….
And since CES is a 3B by trade Cleveland will throw in Jose Rameriz as they’ll have no need for him……
Sure you don’t want Emmanuel Clase as well?…or at least Trevor Stephan.
It is fine if you don’t like the suggested trade, but you aren’t getting a dependable starter for nothing and we aren’t trading our young guys. Starters are valuable and my suggested trade doesn’t over value Bieber. CES and Phillips aren’t even your top guys, so yes, that is what it will take to get him.
Well the Reds real window is more like next year and after. They aren’t going after Bieber with no control after next season, especially for that price point
Well if you want someone under control for more than a year and a half, it’ll take your *very* best prospects. See how that works?
CES+ for Bieber is pretty reasonable. Especially when they have nowhere to play him now anyway. That rotation needs some help, and just because Bieber doesn’t have several years of control left it doesn’t mean he isn’t valuable. Best case scenario for them, he helps them to the playoffs this year and/or next year and helps bridge the gap to their next wave of pitching prospects. The Reds would gladly take that.
I don’t know that the reds want to push the chips in for 1.5 years of Bieber though. He makes more sense to a team like the Dodgers.
CES is totally blocked in cincy and looks like a trade chip.
CES is slated to take over 1B here next year, so unless Ohtani becomes available, and agrees to an extension to come here, CES is probably staying put
@Dbird
Spencer Steer not good enough for you? I’d love to have a guy hitting like him starting for me everyday.
Steer could play 1B, while CES takes 3B. But Steer can play all 4 infield positions, as well as LF, where he platoons with Benson. DH is also in play for whoever isn’t in the field
It looks like they’ve been managing Allen’s innings over the past few starts anyway, so that may be a factor in the decision.
PoisonedPens: I think that you’re on to something. However, Logan didn’t help himself yesterday. Had nearly 100 pitches and was pulled in the 4th inning. He needs to figure a way to finish off the batters to get deeper into his starts.
He was pulled due to pitch count. Something to work on at AAA but I imagine he will be back at some point in 2023.
PoisenedPens: I call them the CLEVELAN-DIANS. That’s technically correct and the political correctness police have nothing to complain about.
I’m the real Clevelandian.
It’s not related to his performance. He just hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games so it puts a lot on the bullpen on days when he’s pitched (especially more recently). He’s pitched really well but getting an extra bullpen arm for the short term with Quantrill back is probably smart.
Helps with the super 2 status too.
The super two status is purely incidental though.. they have 6 guys for 5 rotation spots. Had to be one of Allen, Bibee, and Williams. Allen is simply the one not performing the best.
Logan Allen has to learn how to keep his pitch count down and still get batters out. Getting to almost 100 pitches in less than 4 innings isn’t helping the team. In fact it is wearing out the bullpen.