At 36-25, the Diamondbacks not only sit a surprising 11 games over .500 but also hold a one-game lead over the Dodgers for first place in the National League West. While the D-backs’ young core made them a popular sleeper pick heading into the 2023 season, few anticipated that more than two months into the year, they’d hold the fifth-best record in baseball and the second-best mark in the National League.
Huge performances by Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll, ace Zac Gallen, veteran righty Merrill Kelly, former top prospect Geraldo Perdomo, trade acquisition Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and underrated slugger Christian Walker have not only placed the D-backs among the upper echelon of teams in the National League — they’ve created an air of staying power. Arizona’s offense ranks in the top six of all MLB teams in terms of batting average, slugging percentage, runs scored and stolen bases.
If there’s an area the team is currently lacking, it’s likely on the pitching staff. General manager Mike Hazen acknowledged as much last night in an appearance on The Show podcast with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Asked where his club might look to upgrade as we move past the “early” portion of the season and begin to inch closer to the annual summer trading bonanza, the seventh-year general manager spoke with relative candor.
“Certainly pitching,” said Hazen. “We’ve been playing very dramatic baseball lately. We either win it or lose it in the ninth inning, and that’s not a great way for a baseball team to go through life. We’d like it to be 6-0 in the seventh inning and then just ease on through the last six or nine outs of the game. That has not been happening to us, so we’re going to need to address the pitching, for sure. From a starting depth standpoint to get through the last four months of the season and/or to shore up our bullpen. We play good defense. I don’t know that our run-scoring is going to stay at the clip it’s staying at right now, which is going to put more pressure on our pitching staff. I think that’s an area that almost every contender will probably have to address, but it’s certainly one we’re going to need to address.”
For all the Diamondbacks’ offensive success, they’ve been a middle-of-the-pack unit in terms of pitching — both in the rotation (4.52 ERA, 17th in MLB) and in the bullpen (4.09 ERA, 19th in MLB). The rotation numbers are a bit skewed by some early struggles from the since-released Madison Bumgarner, but there’s no getting around the fact that the Snakes are relying on a top-heavy starting staff. Gallen and Kelly have been nothing short of brilliant, both sitting on sub-3.00 ERAs through more than 70 innings. However, they’re not just the team’s only two starters with a sub-3.00 ERA — they’re the only Arizona starting pitchers with an ERA shy of 4.50.
Young arms like Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt have not performed as well as hoped in the 2023 season. Bumgarner pitched to a calamitous 10.26 ERA before being released, and fellow veteran Zach Davies has made just four starts with a 5.40 ERA this season, owing to a left oblique strain that shelved him for more than six weeks. Each of Henry, Nelson, Pfaadt, Davies and Jameson have posted below-average strikeout and walk rates when pitching out of the rotation, and of that same bunch, only Davies has managed to keep the ball in the park at an acceptable rate (0.98 HR/9).
The bullpen situation isn’t nearly as dire. Offseason signees Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro and Scott McGough have all performed well, with Chafin’s peripherals lending particular credence to his status as a top-notch reliever. Holdovers Kevin Ginkel and Kyle Nelson both have sub-3.00 ERAs, and the D-backs will soon welcome back one of their top 2022 relievers, as lefty Joe Mantiply is on a minor league rehab assignment after missing the past month with a hamstring strain. Mantiply has only thrown 7 2/3 frames this year due to that injury and a bout with shoulder inflammation, but he’s been effective in that brief time. Meanwhile, DFA pickup Jose Ruiz and minor league signee Austin Adams have each impressed (albeit through only 4 1/3 innings for the recently selected Adams).
That doesn’t rule out the possibility of Arizona deepening the relief corps, particularly if the supply of starting pitchers is scant and asking prices prove prohibitive. However, it also seems fair to expect that rotation depth will be the priority for Hazen and his staff.
The D-backs won’t simply go into cruise control with a strong offense, however. Arizona ranks fifth in MLB with a .431 slugging percentage, but much of that is due to the team’s high batting average and glut of singles. The Diamondbacks’ 69 home runs as a team rank just 14th in MLB, and their team ISO (slugging minus batting average) is tied for ninth at .170.
Given that context, it’s perhaps not surprising that Hazen also acknowledged that the D-backs will be on the lookout for a boost in the power department. Where in the lineup or at which position on the diamond that upgrade would come remains an open question, as Hazen noted that “one through nine, I think we have a fairly consistent lineup with good hitters.”
Still, adding “a bit of slug” to the lineup will be another priority, and Hazen figures to carry a fairly open mind toward that goal, given the versatility of a number of his current contributors. Ketel Marte, Josh Rojas and Perdomo all have experience at multiple positions, while both Jake McCarthy and Carroll are capable of playing all three outfield spots.
Of course, the deadline is still more than seven weeks away, and injuries and/or a downturn in any singular player’s performance could open a more glaring need in the lineup. As it stands, the focus could well be on production over position. It’s unlikely we’ll see many — if any — major trades in the month of June, but D-backs fans can be encouraged in hearing their baseball operations leader voicing a clear intent to improve the club in multiple areas as we get into the meat of the schedule.
oscar gamble
Hopefully Alek Thomas and Dominic Fletcher get another chance this season. Arizona needs to have an idea of their ability to contribute in the future.
Tigers3232
As it stands now they re not gonna get a chance at MLB level just for the sake of gauging the future. They should continue to get regular ABs and playing time in the Minors til they re needed at MLB level and DBacks thing they can contribute. As long as they re contending you don’t give away playing time and ABs just for the sake of gauging future value.
freeland1787
D-backs probably need to make a decision on who to trade between McCarthy, Thomas, and Fletcher. They really can’t roster all 3 of them long term, since they’re all left-handed hitters. That’s why they sold high on Varsho last off-season to get Moreno and Gurriel.
Thomas probably has the most upside of the three outfielders, but has a ground ball issue given his steep bat path into the strike zone. McCarthy is trying to dig out of deep slump, but I think Arizona keeps him because he fits their identity with being pesky on the bases and is second behind Tatis in OAA in RF. Fletcher has the lowest upside, and probably won’t hit lefties much in his career, but is a playable option now if the team wants someone who can reliably hold down an outfield spot over the next 6 seasons.
Tigers3232
Walker and Moreno are both RH hitters. Marte and Perdomo are both naturally RH switch hitters. So they could conceivably keep all 3 u mentioned and Carroll whose also LH. When they find a longterm solution at 3B they ll likely b right handed, that’s a 5 to 4 RH to LH split. And provides OF depth without having to waste a roster spot on a primary DH who doesn’t field well. Now if the right offer comes along by all means they should part with one of those u mentioned. I don’t see it being a necessity though, position player wise they look well balanced and have intriguing talent for the foreseeable future.
SnakeWit
Why would you trade Thomas, Fletcher, or McCarthy? For starters they are no where near their max value. Hazen traded Varsho at the perfect time when his value was HIGH! I hold on to them at all costs unless the return makes sense.
Tigers3232
Their value has not plummeted either. Waiting is a risk that goes both ways. Meanwhile club control keeps going down which definitively reduces value.
Dbacks44
As a diehard dbacks fan Jake coming around will help and if we run more we will win. It’s unacceptable to have this much speed and not use it alot. That’s why we are doing better. If you don’t have alot of bop in the lineup, you win another way. We are lacking a bench hitter. A starter and another bullpen piece. A perfect example is a guy like diaz or Peterson on the As for a bench hitter. Getting a guy like giolito or Lynn would make sense. Then adding graveman would be perfect.
cwsOverhaul
Lynn isn’t really serviceable at this point (plus prorated 19mil salary) as a PSA to your pleasant surprise club…..but feel free to scout him tonight against the Judge-less Yanks.
thecoffinnail
Don’t worry I’m sure Cashman will be ready and waiting with open arms to take Lynn and his entire salary at the deadline. Actually, he will probably throw in a decent pitching prospect like Will Warren if the Sox are willing to send Clint Frazier back. Sounds about right for a Cashman deadline deal. He will, of course pat himself on the back for getting the Pale Hose to pick up $3m of Lynn’s deal. He has to save those big bucks for Severino this off-season. That way Rodon will have a guaranteed buddy to share the Carl Pavano Memorial MRI Tube the next few years.
avenger65
Whoever gets Lynn, they should do something the Sox haven’t been able to: Get him to stop eating!
highheat
I wouldn’t worry too much about a bench bat; Herrera will have to be optioned when Kelly returns, and once Lewis returns it’s likely Smith that gets optioned (and who knows how they’ll handle Rojas’s slump with Rivera hitting LHP and RHP; he looks damn good). That’ll raise the offensive floor a bit.
Rotating Gurriel, Lewis, Longoria, Marte, Rivera, and Walker through the DH slot is a better spot than a lot of other teams are in, and there will be plenty of moments that one of the LHH OF are plugged in at DH. There is always going to be at least one decent bat on the bench, and frequently more than one.
Ahmed has to figure something out, though; if he’s nothing more than a BU SS, then Castillo is nipping at his heels and Alexander is also close to returning from injury. Any attractive players should be saved to deal for established pitching.
Davies is fine enough as a #4/5 (and if his Changeup and command are on point, he’ll look like a #3 at times) and Henry looks much closer to being settled in as a #5 than Jameson, R. Nelson, or Pfaadt. A #3 (preferably that can push #2 production at times) is the bare minimum quality pitcher AZ would have to get in order to consider it an upgrade.
Adams, Castro, Chafin, McGough, and Ruiz all have to remain on the Active roster, so the only optionable guys in the bullpen currently are Ginkel, Jameson, and K. Nelson. They’re not terrible arms to have, but they’re also not terribly difficult to upgrade upon (and we do still have the optionables Mantiply, Misiewicz, and Sulser returning; we dont talk about Mark).
Just about everybody in the league will want an upgrade mid-high in the rotation and/or at the back of the bullpen, but those are the only areas where the DBacks can conceivably (and impactfully) address roster deficiencies.
sufferforsnakes
“We don’t talk about Mark.”
Hahaha……
scottaz
highheat
LOL “we don’t talk about Mark”! Agreed.
Exciting that Hazen is now contemplating moves to take the Dbacks deep into the playoffs, rather than simply being competitive for a Wild Card spot. I agree with his confidence in the talent and ability on this team.
I think the Dbacks should go for a #1/#2 starter type if one is available. I also think the Dbacks have sufficient depth and Prospect capital to overpay/outbid other teams for that starter, without damaging the long term quality of this team. An option would be to overpay for an established Closer. Both of these are probably long shot possibilities, but I don’t think this team can get to the WS this year without one or both of these additions. I believe in this team, but I think they lack the playoff experience necessary to succeed in the Post Season.
I don’t know if Corbin Byrnes is that #1/#2 Starter level, but I think he’s the floor, and I wouldn’t settle for lesser quality if trading significant asset(s).
I wonder if the Dbacks could pry the much hated former Dodger Closer Kenley Jansen free from Boston? Again that would be my idea of the floor quality level to trade significant asset(s) for a Closer.
avenger65
Why would the Sox want to trade Jansen? They’re in an even tougher division than the NLW, and that’s saying something.
scottaz
avenger
As I said, neither Jansen, nor Byrnes, nor anyone else of that quality is likely to be available. I just used Byrnes and Jansen as floor level examples of what the Dbacks should go after.
In my opinion, unless they go after that level players, they are t really upgrading the current group, sowky waste good assets on lateral moves?
DonOsbourne
Scott,
What if the price is really right? We’ll give you Jack Flaherty for an autographed Corbin Carroll jersey and a Zac Gallen bobblehead.
In all seriousness, Jack is very talented and he will probably get much better once he leaves St Louis. (Don’t give him an extension). He could definitely help you guys this season.
Congrats again on a great breakout season.
thecoffinnail
Very well put Highheat. I agree on everything but Davies. He has been Cinderella at the ball waiting to turn back into a pumpkin since he was first traded to Baltimore. He somehow managed to stick around for quite awhile. D-Backs fans had to suffer through the Stewart years and it seems like a good time to go for it. The Dodgers seem vulnerable this year and the Padres still haven’t figured out how to fire on all cylinders. A target I would like to see them chase would be Cease. He will still have 2 years of arb left and is only 27 he should fit right in with their young guns. I really think it’s a perfect match for both player and team. The Sox will have a lofty price on him though. I’m not sure who would be a good fit for their bullpen. Chapman will be available. I don’t know about him though. Seemed to be a spoiled brat for the Yankees the past couple years. Haven’t heard much lately but that’s probably because he is in KC. An under the radar move which might make Hazen look like a genius would be to sign Zack Britton. Pretty sure he is still available and the last I heard he was negotiating with the Mets back in April, so he could be signed idk. He looked good in his throwing sessions in March touching 93mph with his sinker. With a good chunk of the season gone even a pro-rated portion of an expensive pillow contract shouldn’t hurt too much. He would be a good fit in Arizona imho.
freeland1787
Cease definitely is not a good deal for Arizona for the assets they’ll likely have to give up. His strikeout rate has dropped 6% (30.4 -> 24.6%) compared to last season while his walk rate has remained the same and a lot more loud contact against him this year. Could be an one year blip, but I’d probably want a more consistent track record for a SP.
GASoxFan
Focus on guys who are most likely to be available.
Paxton has been OK, and, Boston is getting shuffled pretty far back in the wildcard. Depending how they slide (or not) he fits the part of a veteran on an expiring deal and not in line for a QO.
If BOS finds themselves on the outside looking in, especially if Sale doesn’t bounce back quickly and dominant, he should be available at a reasonable cost.
Likewise, if the sox dont find a taker for Dalbec, you might be able to target Justin Turner as they give him another try in the DH/corner IF sub role to try to see what he can do, or at least build.value towards the offseason – again, if the team fades behind the WC leaders. His advanced age mixed with the pending player option that it only makes sense for him to turn down thus far in the year make him a movable piece. He is also very familiar with the postseason and a decent clubhouse presence to have for a run.
freeland1787
McCarthy is one of those players who is more valuable to Arizona than other teams, he’s not going anywhere.
Adam Closer
They need a right fielder other than Pavin, while the left handed bat is needed off the bench, he has been a dancing bear at best in RF. Would prefer to either see Fletcher back up and starting, or trade for power left handed bat to play RF.
citizen
Henry has a sub 3 era at home but 6+ on the road, another pitcher has a 3.47 on the road but higher era at home.. juggle the roster, the pitching doesnt look bad.
LFGSD619
We thinking they trade Lourdes Gurriel?
scottaz
I would. Sell high. They can’t sign him long term (by terms of his contract), and they shouldn’t. Dbacks already have an abundance of high quality OF, why spend money on that position? Trade Gurriel for controllable player(s). Get something for him instead of letting him go for nothing. Gurriel has historically been a streaky player. Dbacks may have caught him on a hot streak, but it may not last.
YourDreamGM
What do the dodgers have to sell? If the dbacks have 4 outfielders and a dh that are better than Gurriel the dodgers don’t have a chance at winning division.
LFGSD619
Yeah the Dodgers should trade Julio Urias and Max Muncy.
freeland1787
They’re not going to trade their second best hitter while they have a very good shot at a playoff spot. If they were hovering around .500 instead of being 11 over, I’d agree with that sentiment.
LFGSD619
The Brewers are leading their division. That hasn’t stopped people on this site from thinking they’ll trade Corbin Burnes at the deadline. So why not the Diamondbacks with Gurriel?
Xerostomia
I was on the trade Gurriel bandwagon up till 10+ days ago. Unless there is a total collapse over the next ~100 games, Gurriel is the type of player that the Dbacks would have traded for. He has been extremely streaky in the past, but ‘somehow’ players in contract years seem to have career years. As such I say ride the Gurriel train till for the season.
I think that the Dbacks actually want to add more thump in the middle of the lineup. Before the season started, I really wanted the Dbacks to sign JD Martinez. Not sure there is anyone available of his caliber.
If the Rockies and Dbacks were to make a trade, I would try to get CJ Cron. I would rather have Cron over Pavin Smith. Problem is that he is having a bad year and is injured, but that would be another thumper in the middle of the lineup. He also grew up to Phoenix.
sufferforsnakes
Nope.
scottaz
suffer
We agree to disagree on trading Gurriel!
prestigeworldwide
hell no, Dbacks are finally no longer sellers.
LFGSD619
Oh and why’s that? The Brewers are leading their division and people still think they will trade Corbin Burnes.
sfes
Yea but let’s be frank, most people are stupid. If you have a chance to get in then you’re just as likely to win it all than everyone else. It’ll suck to lose him to free agency but he could be the difference maker in a short series. The division is trash and we all know if you get hot at the right time that’s all you need sometimes. Flags fly forever.
sfes
This is a breath of fresh air seeing a team that hasn’t competed at a post season level consistently for some time coming into its own. They’re at the point where a big free agent signing or two, or a big trade would put them over the top. When your rebuild bears fruit as good as this it’s hard not to take advantage. Baseball is so fickle that many times you never get that 2nd chance “next year.” Though these guys do look primed to contend for a while, we all know how the baseball gods are. I’d love to see these guys in the postseason!
Rsox
I could see Giolito as a target for the D’backs, Paul Blackburn too. Zack Greinke could be interesting if player and team are interested in a reunion
Ghost of hermanfranks
Man, what a team. Very entertaining, the schedule this far has worked out for them. The baseball is definitely different in all games, even intra game for all teams. Hazen checked a lot of boxes, yeah Moreno and Gurriel was a great trade. Davies is Maddux lite, and has such late movement, will at some point have some great runs don’t think a juiced ball affects him as much as he is such a specialty pitcher. Hard to figure out this year the exit velos and it’s obvious why some great pitchers are struggling, sure the pitch clocks are part of it too. Well put together team.
Angels & NL West
The Dbacks are a very fun team to watch. It was important to hold their own in the first 21 games with 15 coming against LA, SD and Milwaukee. They were 11-10 over that stretch and proved to themselves that they could compete with the best in the NL. They’ve taken advantage of their May schedule by beating up on lesser teams which a good team should do.