The Braves entered the 2023 season with a question mark at shortstop. Atlanta didn’t seem to strongly pursue a reunion with Dansby Swanson over the winter. Only the front office knows how much that was due to payroll constraints versus a genuine belief in their other options. In any case, the Braves have picked up right where Swanson left off.
Atlanta shortstops have combined for a .310/.365/.422 batting line. Only the Rangers (where Corey Seager is playing at an MVP level) have gotten a stronger on-base percentage out of the position. Atlanta shortstops are eighth in slugging and fourth in overall offense as measured by wRC+.
If one were told three months ago that Braves’ shortstops were performing at this level, they’d probably have assumed Vaughn Grissom hit the ground running. The 22-year-old broke into the majors with a .291/.353/.440 showing as a rookie last season, filling in for Ozzie Albies at second base while the latter was injured. Midway through Spring Training, Grissom appeared to be the favorite for the job, with rookie Braden Shewmake also garnering some attention amidst a strong Spring Training.
The Braves went elsewhere. Atlanta made the surprising decision to option Grissom and Shewmake at the same time a week before Opening Day. That signaled a commitment to veteran Orlando Arcia, who had played a utility role since being acquired from the Brewers in a lopsided 2021 trade. It marked the first time he’d be in an Opening Day starting lineup since a four-year run as Milwaukee’s shortstop from 2017-20.
Arcia has seized the opportunity in a way few would’ve seen coming. He’s hitting .341/.400/.489 in exactly 200 trips to the plate. He lost a couple weeks with an early-season microfracture in his left wrist, but he’s started 52 of 73 games. Arcia was off to a .333/.400/.511 start before the injury. He has been no worse for wear since returning in early May, putting up a .343/.400/.482 line over the last six weeks.
The 28-year-old isn’t going to continue hitting at quite this level. He’s not going to maintain a .406 average on balls in play all year. He’s hitting .363 on ground-balls, a top ten figure in MLB that’s probably going to regress. It’d be too simplistic to wave away his strong first few months as a complete product of ball in play fortune, though.
Arcia’s plate discipline profile is the best of his career thus far. During his time with Milwaukee, he had a very aggressive approach that kept his walk rates near the bottom of the league. Not consistently swinging at good pitches was a big reason he never developed into the quality everyday shortstop the Brewers anticipated when he was coming through their system as a top prospect.
As he has gotten more experience, he’s become more patient. Arcia has swung around 45% of the time over the past two years after typically offering at over half the pitches he’d seen early in his career. He’s had a particularly discerning strike zone feel this season. He has chased less than 28% of pitches outside the zone, a career-low mark that’s four percentage points better than league average. He’s swinging at a typical rate at pitches within the zone, though. Laying off pitches off the plate without getting passive and letting too many hittable offerings pass by is a tough balance to strike.
Arcia has found it. Not coincidentally, he’s hitting the ball with more authority than usual. This season’s 45.8% hard contact percentage (batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ MPH) is a personal best. A lot of that contact is coming on the ground, so he’s still not making a huge power impact. Combining average or better walk and strikeout numbers with a lot of hard, low-angle batted balls is a recipe for getting on base consistently. Arcia isn’t going to sustain a .400 OBP, but he looks capable of keeping his on-base a fair bit higher than the .312 league mark for shortstops.
Alongside the offense, Arcia has stepped back into regular shortstop duty without missing a beat defensively. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have pegged his glove as four runs above average in a little less than 500 innings. He rated as a solid defender for most of his time with the Brewers but hadn’t played shortstop with regularity in three years because Swanson almost never missed a game. A couple seasons of multi-positional work don’t appear to have taken any toll on his glove at the infield’s most demanding spot.
The all-around production has Arcia among the top 30 position players in both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference WAR even with his three-week injury absence. Even if he falls off that pace as the BABIP declines, Arcia has provided the Braves more than they could’ve anticipated in the post-Swanson era. The top of Atlanta’s lineup is loaded with star talent. They only needed some stability at shortstop once they let Swanson go. Arcia has gone well beyond that.
In the process, he has quieted questions about promoting the younger players. Grissom and Shewmake each saw a little MLB action while he was hurt but have spent the majority of the season in Triple-A. Shewmake is having a dreadful offensive season there; Grissom is hitting well (.314/.380/.466 with an excellent 13.5% strikeout rate) while getting an extended run to try to improve his reputation as a middle infield defender. While shortstop once looked like a potential deadline concern for the front office, that’s no longer the case.
The final touch for the team: Arcia’s affordability. He and the club agreed to a restructured contract on Opening Day that could keep him in Atlanta through 2026. He’s making $2.3MM this season, followed by respective $2MM salaries for the next two years. There’s a matching ’26 club option that comes with a $100K buyout.
That’s fine value for the utility role he’d played between 2021-22. It’s a bargain for a quality everyday shortstop. Arcia is playing like one right now, one of the many reasons Atlanta is in pole position for a seventh consecutive division title.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
You have to be impressed by the Braves decision and Arcia’s ability to adjust. We’ll done.
I don’t know if impressed by the Braves decision is the right perspective.
More like they chose to downgrade to Grissom and take the hit to avoid overpaying then stumbled into winning the lottery.
I bet if you asked anyone in the Braves org who they thought would be better in 2023 between Swanson and Arcia, money aside, all would have said Swanson.
Sometimes it just works out better than expected though.
If internally the Braves had the foresight to believe Arcia would be an All-star and that’s why they went with him then I would be impressed. Pretty unlikely that’s how the decision was made though.
I’m sure they’d still say that, money aside, Swanson is better player but that was never the calculus.
Swanson was a free agent coming off a good platform year and Arcia was a post-hype sleeper guy available for back-up money.
Most of the improvements to his hitting this year actually began last year. The K rate improvement began in 2023, but the power and walk rate jumped to their current levels in 2022. He was a 104 wRC+ bat, and it looked unlucky because it came with a .278 BABIP.
While they couldn’t have seen All Star coming, they had a lot of data on his improved bat before signing him. So yes, it worked out better than expected, but they do deserve some credit here, it’s not all luck.
The only reason the decision happened is for financial reasons. Why you’re impressed by that I’m not sure.
Arcia wasn’t even the guy they were thinking so to point to his power and walk rate improvement or whatever else is all the more you just reaching to give them credit.
General consensus at the time was Vaughn Grissom would take over and Arcia would still be there to spell him from time to time. The Braves never said “Arcia is the guy we want” back when projecting their 2023 team out.
Now as it turned out Grissom still couldn’t make up the ground defensively the Braves wanted to see in Spring.
The reality is the Braves backpedaled into Arcia. Why some of you have to lie to yourselves about the reality of something favorable working out is beyond me. Just call it how it is and be happy it’s gone well.
Lmao at “yeah but his power and walk rate improvement last gave the Braves the insight to go with Arcia!”…. No it didn’t. We all know it didn’t.
The Braves have been operating this way for over a decade. Yet, they won an impressive WS title and continue to competitive at a high level. The Braves are the smartest team in baseball.
I agree with your assessment, ‘not wanting to over pay Swanson for his career year,’ sure.
“The only reason the decision happened is for financial reasons. Why you’re impressed by that I’m not sure.” Its not the financial reasons only, but as team being able to fit in the payroll as is—is impressive. There is more of a chance to sign Fried etc. If the Braves pick up Rosario’s 9 million option–they have the whole team under control for next year. This kind of cost certainty helps build the rest of the team.
I’m going to say this is Rosario’s last year in Atlanta, you can get more while paying less money
Then why did they extend Arcia?
Because he a very good player that can play multiple positions and is going to be an All-star this year
Sure he can play the outfield, but he’s horrible at it.
This was likely seen coming once his xwOBA shot up to .338 in 2020, along with his progressive increase in walk rate about on a yearly basis, along with his exit velocity increase since the Braves acquired him.
I really do believe, if you read between the lines in Braves statements during off-season, that the plan was to give Arcia the job. Every time they were asked about Grissom they played it down and emphasized that it was an open battle They knew he was once a well above average defensive SS. They knew he was making great strides offensively in a utility role. Who started down the stretch and in the playoffs last year at 2B? Arcia. It wasn’t merely a matter of being cheap. Swanson had the contract year inflated numbers and he wasn’t worth much more than the 100m they offered him but got nearly 200m. Generally a 2 win player who jumped up to over 5. Poor decision by Cubs imo.
That’s pretty much the Braves in the nutshell. Even the wrong decisions prove to be the right ones.
The Braves had to have seen something because Shewmake and Grissom had good spring trainings but they went with Arcia. Im not so short sited to say MJ is wrong though. There is a heavy element of luck in this. I think the Braves were willing to except a performance significantly less impactful than what Arcia is doing and even expected too.
This article strikes me as a little to optimistic even after stating that there will be some regression. I don’t know how much I am willing to believe he has genuinely improved. His plate discipline as sited in the article is really the best argument for real improvement but who knows if he will keep that going.
Maybe I’m underselling on Arcia but going forward if he could remain a plus defender and produce slash lines that look something like .260/.330/.420 I would be very happy and so should every other Braves fan. Sadly I won’t be shocked at all if he regresses to normal production for his career.
I think the key is they believed in the defense and already had a great offense and I think they believed he was potentially league average as a hitter, which would make him worth around as much as Swanson’s general season before his great contract year, which was largely inflated by a great last few weeks of 2022.
@Rishi. That’s not accurate. His OPS per month breaks down as follows:
Mar 644
May 847
June 953
July 786
Aug 675
Sept 723
I agree with your analysis on what the Braves probably expected from Arcia though.
I am speaking of the fact that he had quite a few homers those last couple weeks. Specifically in the Mets series.
He hit 8 homers over his last 20 something starts. This inflated his power production. He is likely not really a 25 hr guy
Man. I now realize he hit 27 in 2021. So I am wrong about him not being a 25 homer guy. I just can’t get this post right. I still was just saying his power numbers didn’t look that way last year until the final 25 starts and 8 HRs happened.
xwOBA and xSLG say differently, as they say he should have been slightly better, even his .430 xwOBACON was way above the average player.
If you mean Swanson my point is I don’t trust the hitting. He was at 113ops+. He never finished a full season above 99 before that. He had a nice 2020 but that’s a third of a season. Now, he has carried over the good defense which I am happy to see. He does seem like a player who is always improving but I don’t expect him to be near 15% above average as a hitter most seasons. And I think the two years with 27,25 HRs implies he’s more of a power hitter than he probably really is. I expect around 20. But maybe less and not 27.
That’s fine, you can not trust his hitting all you want, but saying that he’s not really a 25 homerun guy when his metrics say differently in 2020, 2021, and 2022 say differently. Even 2019 he would have been close, but he only played 127 games that year while hitting 17, while producing his 2nd highest xwOBA of his career that year.
Okay. I admit I’m incorrect about the HRs probably. But when was the last time a player got 180m that had only ever produced one above league average batting line (excluding the 200 at bats in 2020)? Thats what I’m attempting to express. He is honestly worth a good bit so far this year defensively alone. But what if 2022 was an outlier and he is no better than league average hitting? Is that worth 180m? It’s a legit question I think
Honestly I still think I’m right about the HRs too. I don’t care about 2020. 2019 he was not on pace for more than maybe 21 HR and last year he had 17 through 137 games. I think he’s an 18-22 hr guy. Not 25-27. It’s not a big deal. This year he’s on pace for what I’m saying.
@Rishi with Swanson being a SS year his offensive #s combined with his defense make him if not worth the 180m, he’s fairly close. He hits above average for his position, how he hits compared to the league as a whole is not as relevant since he plays a position where defense is a premium. He also hits a decent amount of doubles and steals a few bases.
I personally thought the 180m was kind of steep at first. Looking at his stats tho, I have to admit he’s sneaky productive.
I will admit I don’t think he’s a 2 win player anymore (he’s already there this year). Honestly he is probably gonna be better than most people that get that kind of money because he works so hard and improves almost every season, and plays a premium position. I’m just an idealist who wants a huge bat for that kind of money. But that’s the salaries people make in today’s game. I’m not entirely used to it.
Dans is a good defender who turned into great defender. He doesn’t have a great arm but makes up for it with footwork and speed. His 1st 4 years he was 15th of all SS with the bat. A definition of middle of the pack bat. He did get better every year—but his last year and a half he really played up. He may produce enough to make the 180 worth it. I am willing to say he should play up to it. I like dans a lot and I’m glad he got paid. Before he started his last season if the Braves offered 6 and 105 something like that he would have been hard pressed to not take it. Then he has a year where he plays like Trout (a top 5 type season). Speed is such a big part of his defense and it will decrease. Soon year 4 or 5 you may have someone who no longer has the range to play SS and might need to be at 2nd. His bat should stay strong through the contract. Who would you rather be? The cubs hoping he comes through for the 180–dans has already made over 8 million this year? Or the Braves who will pay Arcia 8 million for the next 3 years. Arcia is a great team player and everyone loves him. Very similar to Dans. Arcia doesn’t have the range or speed of Dans. Arcia does have a stronger arm. I don’t believe Arcia will out homer Dans over the next 6 years. I believe in Arcia and I think he will produce around 80 percent of Dans batted ball production. Combine that with who he is on this team. The energy and the type teammate he is to everyone. For 3 years for the cost of 3 months of Dans….even I being a big big Dans fan— I find that Arcia is a guy that is very hard not to pull/root for.
Swanson is on pace for a 6+ WAR season in 2023 if his injury stint is short, That is worth $54+ million.
I think you are right. Dansby is a 95 career OPS+ guy and Arcia is a 75 career OPS+ guy. This season Dansby is a 104 OPS+ guy so far. Arcia should be able to put up 80% of that once his unsustainable luck runs out.
@Rishi he get the wanting an elite bat. However offensive production is not all that hard to find these days and can b complemented to a roster elsewhere. With Dansby he’s become a really complete player at a defensively premium position. And smart teams build strong up the middle. In comparison to what many SS’s have been getting, Swanson might actually b a bargain when these large SS contracts are viewed in hindsight years from now.
Only 1? 2016, 2020, and 2022 were all above average. But since 2019 his expected stats, along with his xwOBA have said he’s above average due to quality of contact.among other things. His xwOBA has been comparable to Trevor Story, but he wasn’t lucky enough to have the Coors Field advantage.that Story did., while Dansby provides as good if not better defense than Story.
@Pads Fans Jose Bautista was a 91 wRC+ guy from 2004 to 2009 till he wasn’t, so there’s that. I think you know the rest where he was a 123 wRC+ to a 180 wRC+ hitter over the next 7 years. No everyone figures it out right away, and Arcia might be one of those.
I always thought if there was anyone who belonged a career brave it was Dansby Swanson to go along with Chipper Jones… guess I was wrong…
“ I always thought if there was anyone who belonged a career brave it was Dansby Swanson to go along with Chipper Jones… guess I was wrong…”
After Freeman leaving for more money, I have no hopes of having another Chipper or Smoltz type career Brave. I’ve moved on from that mindset.
Freeman left for less money.
Here we go again. He did not. He never intended to go to LA. His agent was playing ATL and LA off against each other and gave the Braves a 24hr ultimatum to sign a 5 or 6 year deal. After the 24 hrs was up they traded for Olsen because the As were literally waiting on the phone and they had to know ASAP. Freeman had no idea the agent was doing what he was doing and didn’t learn about it until the regular season and immediately fired him.After Olsen was acquired he went to LA by default. He never picked between them. There was no offer from Atlanta during the off-season, just the extension they had offered. LA fans are rewriting history. Just look it up. He said his free agency was full of errors and he told Swanson to take control of his because he has the same agent. This is why Kershaw got upset and basically said Freeman didn’t want to be a dodger.
Freeman said “everyone that knows me knows what really happened”. Listen to his press conference where he is crying. He is literally crying because he isn’t a Brave and is a Dodger.
You are making it sound like there were two contracts available when he signed. There weren’t. The braves obviously weren’t offering anything because they already had a 1B. The agent was trying to drive the price up and it backfired. The belief of his agent seemed to be the Braves would eventually up the offer and he would sign there but they pivoted.
Freeman took a contract that because of deferred money was less than what the Braves had on the table. That is not up for debate. Its a fact.
6 years and $162 million with $57 million in deferred money is worth $148 million.
According to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves final offer was 5 years and $148 million.
Freeman took $5 million less money in AAV to play with the Dodgers.
Or he is crying because he is back home playing for his childhood team the Dodgers.
I am not trying to make it sound like anything. I am reporting facts.
No he didn’t. The braves signed another guy. Do you not understand? When he signed with LA there was no offer from Atlanta because they already signed Olsen. Therefore he didn’t pick between the two. The Braves took themselves out of it. He could’ve signed earlier in the off-season with them but his agent was holding out for more money and trying to play the two against each other to drive up the cost. You cannot deny he did not merely pick one over the other. Once again you make it seem like there were two final offers at the same time. When Atlanta made that offer he had no way of knowing where the final bidding for his service would go. For all he knew someone couldve offered him 200m. His camp gambled and he ended up with less money but not by choice. It was merely because there were only three bidders and one took themselves out and the Rays wanted a short deal. Speculation was that other teams would get involved and that the dodgers and braves would both offer more than they ended up offering. The problem is he had never been a free agent before and didn’t understand if you really wanna go somewhere you have to take control of the process. He also likely felt disrespected by the initial extension they offered.
The Braves offered him 5/148. When they wouldn’t add a 6th season he pivoted to the Dodgers and told the Braves that on March 14th according to the AJC. The Braves then traded for Olson on the 15th. Freeman finalized the deal he had agreed to with the Dodgers on the 17th and it was official with MLB on the 18th.
On paper a player of his caliber is easily worth over 200m. He was expecting the price to go up considerably.
Not looking like a good decision for the Braves so far, is it?
He was clearly trying to get them to add the 6th year. I don’t think you are understanding free agency. People say all sorts of things. It’s posturing
Oh. So is that the offer AA told Freeman about after the regular season started that Freeman was never even told about (according to sources) and was the actual reason why his agent was fired?
And when you say “he” told the Braves can I assume you mean his agent told them? The one that he fired for misrepresenting him
I am reporting the facts as written by guys that know more about it than you or I. Specifically a guy that was in the Braves clubhouse every game and writes for the Atlanta newspaper.
On the morning of the 14th, they wrote that Freeman had an agreement in principle with the Dodgers and that he had informed the Braves of that agreement to give them one last shot at signing him. That means Freeman and the Dodgers came to that agreement at some point on the 13th. On the 15th the Braves made a trade for Olson. On the 17th they reported that he finalized the deal with the Dodgers and on the 18th MLB signed off on it making it official. It took an extra few days because of all the deferred money. The same deferred money that makes his deal with the Dodgers less than what the Braves had offered.
Freeman publicly stated he wanted a 6th year in November of last year. That was neither a surprise nor posturing.
I agree it doesn’t look like a good decision by ATL. If you see what they gave up for Matt Olsen the fact that it got them such a good player tells me those chips could’ve been used for another big player and Freeman could’ve just been retained. But Olsen is fine and his deal is fine but he isn’t as good as Freeman. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 50 hrs eventually. And he is locked up for longer than Freeman. In the playoffs a player like Olsen can either carry your team or help drag it down. He’s so streaky.
But that means he didn’t agree to it yet and the fact that he gave them a chance to up the offer proves he wasn’t picking LA over Atlanta per se. And from what has come out they did increase the offer and he likely would’ve taken it if his agent told him about it hence when asked if he had regrets about his free agency he said “don’t even get me started about regrets. Yea. There’s plenty.”paraphrasing
People who know more about it than me or you also wrote that he wasn’t told about the actual offer Atlanta had made and that he likely would’ve taken it
Let’s just agree to disagree. Bottom line is if he wanted to stay as bad as he made it seem in that press conference and as bad as people who know him have said, he should’ve made it clear to his agent and just negotiated a deal himself. I’m not saying he regrets it now. I’m sure he loves LA. All he ever knew was the Braves. He had already won a WS there. It’s better to just move on and let a new fan base embrace you. Now he’ll retire with at least twice as many fans and friends in the game
No he didn’t expect it to go up considerably. He expected a 6th season.
He and his former agent Casey Close have both publicly said he asked the Braves for 6/165 early in the offseason. He didn’t expect it to go up from there. It was his initial offer to the team. He expected them to offer him 6 years and slightly less than that. That is how negotiations work.
No. That is what the AJC reported in March.
AA never said the Braves offered more, he only said they were willing to negotiate more.
Freeman and Close have both said since he fired Excel in June that there was no other offer from the Braves.
You seem to be willing to believe unnamed sources but not believe actual statements from the horse’s mouth. Why is that?
No. I mean he told them. AJC reported that Freeman called AA directly.
Some people SPECULATED that he fired Excel for misrepresenting him, but Freeman has never said that. All he said at the time is that playing in Atlanta was an emotional time for him and his agency situation was a fluid one.
As of today, there is no agency listed for him. mlbtraderumors.com/agencydatabase?name=freeman
On his listing on the 3 largest speakers bureaus, Excel is still listed as the contact if you want him to speak for your organization.
What has come out is ONLY that the Braves said after the fact in late June that they were willing to negotiate more. It has never been said that they made another offer.
If they had offered 6 years, he would be a Brave. They didn’t. The Dodgers did and he ended up taking $5 million less in AAV when you factor in the value of the $57 million in deferred money.
Both Freeman and Casey Close deny that there was another offer available or that Close didn’t tell him about an offer.
You do realize that if any agent fails to disclose an offer that they lose their license with the MLBPA to represent any MLB players, right? It is against the law as well. The fact that Close is still an active agent tells you all you need to know about any speculation on that matter.
Regrets could mean that he wishes he engaged his childhood favorite team, the Dodgers, sooner so he didn’t have to go through all the headaches of FA. You are speculating about meaning.
He out his Atlanta area home up for sale in March 2022 for $3.45 million, so he obviously wasn’t concerned about continuing to live there.
He also bought a $10 million oceanside house in Corona del Mar, CA, in 2019. Let me repeat that. 2019. It is where he and Chelsea lived in the offseason for 4 years.
Earlier this year he bought a $7.8 million home in Studio City because he wanted to be closer to Dodger stadium.
BTW, he came to an agreement with the Dodgers at some point on the 13th. Just 3 days after the lockout was lifted by the MLB owners on March 10th and players could start negotiating with teams again.
He also called the Braves GM directly and gave them a chance to match or beat the offer. It is not like the Braves didn’t have a shot at him. Ultimately he chose the Dodgers and playing closer to his family in southern California.
This statement by his father says it all.
Freeman’s father, Fred, recalled in a Friday interview, “and he said, ‘Dad, if I’m not a Brave, what do you think? Should I go back East?”
“Freddie,” Fred replied, “if you’re not going to be a Brave, I want you home.’”
“So do I,” Freddie said.
So you are disagreeing with the facts. That is good to know. When opinion means more than the facts its says volumes.
LOL Pads Fans is so wrong. Why would anyone take defiered money while getting less? I’ve already did the numbers, and he’s losing multiple millions due to the loss of interest on the deferred money. Not only that, he’s losing millions more due to California’s high tax rates compared to Georgia’s’
How about the fact he changed agents right after? And the fact your speaking of what people are reporting that are guessing. But they somehow have become facts.
If there was no lockout–Freddie would probably still be a Brave.
The lockout shortened the negations and AA pulled a trigger on a move because spring games were so close.
@Rishi. I think what you’re noticing is that Swanson is streaky about his power. For example, in 2021, he had a month where he hit 7 home runs. But then, in addition to that 8 home run month in 2022, he ALSO had a 7 home run July in 2023. He very well might be a 20+ home run hitter, he’s just going to do a lot of his damage on short amounts of time.
The one thing I would say about this is that power is probably the most streaky element in a hitters arsenal. Consider Freddy Freeman in 2019. He hit 38 home runs and 20 of them were hit in July and August. I chose that year randomly because I knew if I didn’t see the results I was looking for, it wouldn’t be difficult to find. This is simply how home runs are hit. Try looking at other batters. You’ll keep seeing that most of the time, home run hitters tend to hit home runs in tight bunches. Even one of baseballs most consistent hitters such as Freddie Freeman.
I agree. You are right.
Mets need a front office like the Rays, Braves
Suffer from the same affliction as their cross town rivals, having more dollars than sense.
Paying premium dollars for past results is no way to win a championship in today’s MLB. Cohen is learning an expensive lesson.
Develop talent internally. Lock them up long-term before they become expensive when possible. Make shrewd signings and trades to fill in gaps. This is the formula for success nowadays.
In fairness to Cohen, his previous comments display an understanding of this. But he said he knows it takes time to build a farm, and he didn’t want to sit around losing 100 games per year while waiting around for the farm to develop.
Rembwrthecoop; but because of the money he spent his draft picks are very low and his draft lottery money pool is reduced. So if he is not winning on the field with his product he is destroying his farm system future with his failure.
Also Eppler never built a farm system
And a winner with the angels with both Othani and trout
Cohen needs to take a page from Dodgers playbook and buy the brightest minds in the game, as well as the best arms/bats/gloves. Or in some cases, instead of.
Personally I don’t want a guy aiming for high draft picks and afraid to spend money because of it. If you scout and develop well you will reap rewards via the draft no matter where you pick. It’s obviously harder when picking low but look at all the guys LAD and ATL have called up the last few years. Not to mention Atlantas rebuild was also via trades. Sign guys like NYM to short deals and you will always have players to trade for prospects. Max Fried was obtained for one year of Justin Upton, for instance.
@Benjamin Dodgers farm system is ranked 2md and they ve been spending and competitive for quite awhile now. Mets and Yankees have been spending for years and they re both ranked in the top half. The bottom 10 ranked farm system only has 2 big spenders the Braves and Astros that have won consistently in recent years. And the only reason the Braves are so low is much of their young talent is on the big league roster. Astros younger talent has been on roster a fee more years but they to are not that far removed from drawing heavily from their farm system.
I just don’t really see any evidence to back a correlation of winning affecting having a good farm system. In less of course a team is regularly trading from farm to aquire proven big league players.
Cohen hasn’t learned it yet he is going bug at the deadline and still go for it. Even though his odds of even making post season are very low. He can’t admit failure
Hate to tell you this Scott but that formula you mentioned has been around as long as I can remember. Solid farm system then compliment your homegrown pieces with reasonable free agent signings and sensible trades. This is nothing new. Not every team subscribed to that formula. It’s more the same now as it’s ever been. Some teams do it this way other teams try it that way.
I’d agree with what you’re saying. I think paying premium prices for seasoned vets is more of a crapshoot nowadays though. Before the PED testing program was implemented, older players aged more gracefully.
Great article!
It’s not just a matter of a front office. Teams that are in sustainable contention for years have built solid organizations. They acquire players that they feel can be worked with, and are constantly having their coaches and analysts at all levels (major and minor leagues) working to make the players they have under contract better. They’re patient with their players and know what they have. They seldom get in bidding battles for name free agents, preferring trades and promoting from within. They don’t work on winning off-seasons and generating publicity.
There as some organizations that are good on pitching and others good on hitting. The best organizations are good on both as well as playing smart fundament baseball which starts with the manager. Some teams pop up for a year or two, then regress again. It takes years to build quality organizations with everyone on the same wavelength.
Right now the top organizations in MLB are the Rays, Astros, Braves, Dodgers – and recently the Orioles and Phillies.
Franchises that have an autocratic owner and/or the PoBO may have “talent” but their teams always underperform. The struggles of franchises such as the Yankees, Cardinals, Mets, Mariners, Padres, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels that prioritize “filling holes” as opposed to building teams where players have roles to fill and do it by making flashy moves seldom – if ever – works for long.
DUH!!!
The Yankees are the winningest Organization in the Game over the last Quarter Century. Just because they haven’t won but 1 WS in that time doesn’t diminish that accomplishment.
All the stuff you claim other Org’s are striving for the Yankees have done longer and on a more consistent basis.
The Cards are also a consistently winning Organization. It seems you like ignoring the real history and acting like the current group has been doing it a long time…they haven’t.
Orioles Tanked for 5 years to build their Farm, is that the winning strategy you’re talking about to maintain Long-Term consistency? The Phillies just recently returned to prominence, is that the consistency you’re referring to?
The Astro’s have been successful “after” parlaying their Tanking into some sustainable success. The Dodgers have been pretty consistent for a good while but have 1 WS Win like the Yankees.
Boston has been successful then follows it up with horrible.
Please respect what the Yankees have accomplished because NO OTHER TEAM has won as consistently as they have.
BLIN7Y;
You have no idea what makes up an MLB franchise organization.
You also want to talk about what franchises did years ago when other people were running them.
Do not confuse John Mozeliak with Whitey Herzog or Branch Rickey….among others.
Nope, let the Mets continue to screw up and stink it up. Could not happen to a more deserving team and their lousy fans
No they just need Cohen to throw 600 mil at Ohtani lol
Will be interesting to see what happens with Grissom. The bat is there, so they are going to have to decide if they want him in LF next year or a utility role. Or he could be trade bait. Someone would be glad to have him as their everyday 2B
I would think that Grissom is trade bait either at the deadline or the off season. Atlanta only on paper has a left field opening next year and that is if they decline Rosario’s option. Grissom had defense struggles at both second and short so not sure if he could handle left field. Also is bat is not a power bat which i would think you would want more power in the outfield.
Lastly; Atlanta has a thin farm system so any big upgrades going be hard to do without trading him
“ Atlanta has a thin farm system so any big upgrades going be hard to do without trading him”
That’s the thing. The Braves lack middle infield depth and Grissom his hitting over .300 in Triple A while Shewmake is hitting .207 in Triple A. Grissom I’m sure he is working on his defense and he is 22 years old. I doubt they trade him.
Just because you struggle a bit as a middle infield doesn’t mean he’s likely to struggle as a left fielder which is a completely different position all together. I mean Adam Duvall should be a good example of a failed 3rd baseman in the Giants system, to which the Reds transitioned him into a left fielder once the traded for him, and now a gold glove left fielder at that. It’s not like Grissom doesn’t have speed, because his 27.7 ft/sec sprint speed is right in the range of Duvall’s, while being above the 27.0 average for left field, which would give him a leg up in that department if he were to transition to left.
It’s typical for left field to be a power bat but it doesn’t have to be for Atlanta. They have plenty of it in multiple positions and one position where it ISNT as expected; second base.
My opinion of Grissom is, I don’t know what ought to be done with him. With his defensive challenges I think Braves fans should be happy with him if he were to become, for example a league average glove in left field because he doesn’t seem to have the defensive chops to be a super utility.
Also, because of how thin the Braves farm is, I would rather them not trade away what little there is. If the Braves want to get a significant player, they really only have Grissom/Shawver that they can afford to offer that would still be worth something. Really, I think the Braves need to keep the young talent they have that hasn’t graduated or has graduated recently and build the farm again. The current core they are fielding will be good for a while so they have time to do it.
I like Grissom as the everyday 3B in Chicago. Maybe even 1B if Mervis doesn’t get recalled.
Not sure Chicago wants to do that. The Braves would want to trade for talent that could be plugged into their line up or rotation now and it would be someone the Cubs don’t want to trade.
Why would the Cubs want him for 3rd base? They already have Patrick Wisdom, and if he doesn’t work out like they want, they have Christopher Morel. Morel’s without a position right now since Hoerner took his spot at 2nd since Dansby took Hoerners spot at short. Now Morel has been shuttled around to 2nd, left, right, and center, and has an arm equal to that of Acuna, so he’s be great for 3rd base, especially since he’s been the best hitter on the team with a 151 wRC+ this year.
It might be because he knows Wisdom is terrible in the field. Although if he DOES know that than he’s in for a surprise because Grissom’s pretty bad with the glove himself.
Yeah, not that Morel has been that great in the 141 innings he’s taken at 3rd, but at least he has a really good arm, and his been far more productive offensively over Wisdom.
Not really a Gamble. Why throw tons of cash at an aging, over-the-hill player when you can bring in young talent for cheap?
Is Dansby the “aging over the hill” player you’re referring too? He’s a year older than the “young, cheap talent” that is Arcia…
He could be referring to Grissom who they gave a chance too. Idk
Right, who the Braves never threw cash at, thus his comment stands, as it’s not a nearly the gamble to throw very little money at Arcia.
I wouldn’t call Dansby “over the hill” by any stretch.
> Why throw tons of cash at
> an aging, over-the-hill player
It works for the Mets!
Wait…
I mean, no, it doesn’t. Sorry, I’ve got nothing on this one.
I think Old York is referring to the Mets answer, throwing money and aging, proven players that present more risks than reward.
> throwing money and aging,
> proven players that present
> more risks than reward.
“The best indicator of future performance is how they performed in the past. And they have performed consistently well in the past. That gives me optimism for the future.”
— Steve Cohen
A decision like this is one of many reasons why the Braves are usually contenders and the Cubs are….well, the Cubs.
Arcia was the starting SS on three Brewers playoff teams so it’s not like he was not capable of being an everyday player. The plus side to his performing as well as he has means Atlanta doesn’t have to seek a SS at the deadline
On a side note the Sean Murphy trade has worked out well too. So many Braves fans hated that trade but Murphy has been performing better offensively than Contreras and was always better defensively.
Yet so many braves fans said I was crazy for suggesting the idea of selling high on a peak season offensively for Contreras to bring in Murphy! Btw, I got to give credit to the brewers for what they did with William, the power hasn’t been there YET, but they have turned him into a premium defensive catcher out of nowhere, much like the did with Omar Narvaez. The braves and Brewers are happy, the As?? Not so much.
What it sounds like is the Brewers moved on from him too quick. Sometimes, a fellow just needs a chance, he won the job in the Spring and has not looked back. There are many more I’m sure like that.
Are you referring to Contreras or Esteury Ruiz…or both?
Arcia as a Brewer was far to underdeveloped for his frame. There’s a reason he was a top 20 prospect. Defense was spectacular. He just didn’t mature, got sloppy with his talent. He’s filled out his frame finally maturing and now he’s showcasing what that top 20 ranking was all about. Whether the Braves convinced him to mature physically or if a light bulb finally went off in Arcia’s head to do it on his own. It’s great to see him succeed.
Grissom for Stl’s Flaherty? Food for thought.
Always liked Grissom’s offense but defense is a ?
Stl could use a SS and this year Flaherty is expendable.
Flaherty is often injured but these days who isn’t?
Plus, Flaherty and Fried can be teammates again.
Like the trade proposal
The Cardinals don’t really need Grissom. Masyn Winn is going to be the SS soon enough and Tommy can handle it right now if DeJong is traded. We need pitching. But I would trade Jack Flaherty for an autographed Chipper Jones jersey, so I’m sure something could be worked out.
Hahahaha fool, look where Atl is & Stl. is licking the bottom of the boot. How does that used chewed gum taste? The only Jersey you’ll get is New Jersey & you can have that for free!
Curly Was The Smart Stooge;
The Cardinals defiantly need a SS, but they need one that’s a GG-type defender. Who cares what he hits. They have plenty of hitting.
Same goes for their Catching position.
Why? Max Fried is eligible to come back in 13 days, and will likely be back soon. You still have Smith-Shawver, Dodd, Shuster, Soroka, and possibly even Wright at some point. Making a trade for Flaherty not only blocks all those pitchers, but takes away from Grissom as a left field option for several years to come should Arcia shows he more than capable of being an above average shortstop. Also I don’t see how St. Louis could use a shortstop since they have Paul DeJong who’s still under contract, and is currently 11th in fWAR out of all shortstops, and even if he was no longer an option, Tommy Edman would be, and he’s a plus defender at short.
St. Louis has Maysin Winn at AAA. They’ll use him at SS before they trade for Grissom. And I like Grissom, but he’s not a fit there.
He’s a better fit to be the everyday 2B in Pittsburgh. That would be quite a DP combo; Grissom and O’Neill Cruz.
So many have forgotten that he was a top 5 MLB prospect when he came up. It just has taken him longer to put things together. I wish the Brewers would have held him.
Yep, 12th highest paid player in the international signing period that year he signed, and was the 6th highest ranked prospect in baseball in 2016 when he came up, which was 2 spots ahead of Dansby.
Arcia’s unsustainable .406 BABIP and other peripherals point to a major regression at the plate,. Expect him to be closer to a .260 BA with a .750 OPS by season’s end. Still good, just no where near where he is now. His defense by measure of DRS and OAA is good, but not elite like Swanson.
He is still a serviceable replacement for Swanson, but in no way is he the long term equal of Swanson or the other elite SS that hit the market last offseason.
If you watch his at bats over the last few years–He has made huge chances. I believe he will continue at this pace–or close to it. Hitting the ball hard etc he will continue–balls in play luck thats a coin flip.
Nope. .406 is unsustainable. it will fall to around .300 both based on his career .285 numbers and on MLB average.
His exit velocity is lower than last season and his hard hit numbers are only slightly higher than last season.
Sticking with .260 with a .750 OPS projection.
Tell that to 2020 Michael Conforto, or 2019 Yoan Moncada as 2 players who have done it in the last 4 years with a .406 BABIP or higher. Plus his exit velocity is still 1.5 mph higher than the average player this year, to go with no shift which allows for more hits.
Okay sure maybe. He may not have a .406 profile. Sure.
What I am saying is his production will continue to be better than his past production when he was a starter with the Brewers. I feel strongly about that. But ‘nooope/yuuupe’ whatever if you need. A batting adv of .260? I mean I don’t really care to much about batting adv anymore and a 750 ops….seems a bit light but yeah he could come in at that. He could also be around .825. It will be fun to watch him for at least the next 3 years. You say his exist velo is down from last year—not by much but sure. Again if you watch him hit and had watched him before you would see how much better he has become. He is doing very well.
His xBA is .267 so far this season. His best season ever was 2020. I see him having a better year in 2023. That is what a .260 BA with a .750 OPS is for Arcia, a career year.
An 80 point drop in BA, his current .340 to the .260 xBA, means a 140-160 point drop in OPS depending on the power numbers of the individual player. I am being generous in saying he will end up with a .750 OPS. I am allowing for the possibility that he maintains his SLG % or at least stays above .430. If his .SLG drops to closer to his .369 career numbers or even just to the .416 he put up in 2020, his OPS will be lower than that. The only way his OPS stays at .825 is if his already career high SLG increases by 20% more.
What I see is a guy that is hitting more ground balls this season than ever before and is getting lucky on far more of those balls in play than usual. As of today his expected stats with the way he has hit so far are .267 with a .764 OPS and I am saying that he will regress just slightly from that to .260 BA with a .750 OPS.
That is until Savant has a readjustment due to the fact that they’ve never dealt with no shift. It’s probably why Arcia is hitting for less power this year with his 27 reduction is ISO, due to the fact that hits are easier to get now with the no shift rules, which has made him more productive as a while.Even Acuna’s launch angle is way down this year, and it’s his most productive year ever as well. it’s a trend with the Braves overall this year.
I mean, he is close enough for the giant salary difference.
At .260 BA and .750 OPS he is well worth what he is being paid. Question is why are you worried about the money? Its not yours.
Is it more important to have the best player possible or for a team to scrimp on payroll?
If I was a fan of the Braves, I would want the best possible player, not the cheapest. The Braves have the revenue to put $270 million in player payroll on the books and still not break spending 50% of revenue on payroll.
Smart teams don’t spend 50% of revenue on payroll, and smart fans understand that not just the players have to be paid out of that stream. There are countless expenditures that are spent to keep identifying talent like a 15 year old Ronald Acuna and getting him with a $100K signing bonus. If you don’t understand that, I am not sure that I can help.
Ah I get it. Sorry.
You don’t follow or understand the Braves. You want to pay a SS 270 million to be the best ss available. Of course. Sure.
The Braves payroll is 100% theirs. They don’t have a owner like other teams. They have a corporation which lets them spend what they make—leaves them alone totally. Which also means they can only spend what they have—they can’t get more money if they have a bad contract. They have around 600 million in debt for the stadium and the surrounding battery park. They are currently making plenty of money—they are a public based company and you can see what they make and spend etc. The Braves have to be aware of what they will bring in next year and make sure they are under that because they can’t get more money they have to work within their budget. This is for everyone and everything from the spring training park to the battery —all of it has to come out of the same stream of funds. So yeah they could afford a 279 million SS but how does that fit in with everything else they are doing.
Team building is not about having the most expensive player in every position—it’s about how these players get along with each other on and off the field for a 7 month tour and play their best on the field at the same time. It’s not an easy thing to create and numbers are only part of that story.
In every sport other than baseball it is mandated in the CBA that teams spend 48-50% of gross revenue on player payroll and benefits.
Many teams spend 50% of revenue now. See the Padres for exhibit one. The Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, and Rockies in the NL (Giants are around 45%) and the Rays, Sox, Twins, Tigers, Rangers, Astros, and Mariners in the Al (the Blue Jays are at 46% and the Angels are in the 45-46% range) are all around 50%. That is more than half the teams.
The Braves are at 41%. That 9% difference is $50 million that could and should be spent on players.
BTW, ALL of those expenses y mentioned are factored in to costs. You can see the Braves actual revenue and costs because they are owned by a publicly held corporation so its in the shareholder’s report and the quarterly earnings call. The numbers show that the Braves can spend well over $300 million and still be in the black. If they spent $292.5 million or half of their revenue on 40 man roster player payroll and benefits (everything that is counted in the CBT calculations) they would still have a 7% net profit margin. I am betting the company you work for doesn’t have margins that high. That is all public information. If you are not willing to look and would rather talk out your behind that is on you.
It baffles me why fans would make excuses for teams not spending money to get the best players possible when they can clearly afford it,
LMFAO. You seriously think that the corporation that owns the Braves leaves them alone when it comes to payroll!! Have you even listened to an earnings call. They not only set that budget, they set profit margin goals prior to the season.
Team building is about having the best player that you can with the budget you have. The braves don’t. They went cheap thinking Grissom would step up. He didn’t and they got lucky with the guy they brought in at the 2021 trade deadline that was supposed to be a backup MI over-performing for 40% of the season.
Arcia’s numbers will end up around .260 with a .750 OPS. That will still be a career year for him. That does not absolve the Braves for not resigning Swanson who is a better all around player than Arcia. What the Braves are doing is maximizing profits.
It baffles me that a fan would be defending corporate profits instead of demanding the team put the best players possible on the field.
You take no consideration upon 500+ million the Braves are in debt due to loans. Those loans aren’t going to pay themselves, thus they need to take profits to cover those expenses. It might been even more now that they are spending $200mil on the new facility they are building for Truist Financial, plus they are possibly going to spend hundreds of million on a new joint project named “The Henry” which is a hotel and mixed use facility.Sure there’s money coming in, but alot of money going out, and a lot of money still owed as well.
100%, as Terry McGuirk was placed in his role by the agreement they had with MBL, as the team would have never been sold without the agreement which placed McGuirk in charge of the team, due to the MLB and the owners of the 29 other teams which were concerned with the deal.
“LMFAO. You seriously think that the corporation that owns the Braves leaves them alone when it comes to payroll!! Have you even listened to an earnings call. They not only set that budget, they set profit margin goals prior to the season.”
There are many many articles that clearly state–Liberty Media leaves them alone. Doesn’t get involved in the day to. Doesn’t set the payroll or profit margins. Liberty Media can not touch any of the monies coming in. All of it goes back to the Braves. There are plenty of informative information about it. Fact: Liberty doesn’t pocket a die from Braves revenue. They benefit from the value of the team rising–not revenue. You simply are speaking and speaking and not able to hear. How about this at the end of the year you can crow and crow about your endless ‘correctness’ and the Braves will be in the playoffs. The cubs even in that division will not.
I’m so glad your a pad’s fan. Enjoy your bloated team as it disappoints yet again. Hopefully your team will give Soto 450 and Tatis 600
Yep, Liberty can’t pocket a dime since Liberty spun off the Braves to its own company Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. which trades common stock, thus it would be illegal for them to do so. So the Atlanta Braves Major League club, certain assets and liabilities associated with the Braves’ stadium, the mixed use development project AKA The Battery are all a separate entity no longer part of Liberty Media.. They only way Liberty gains anything is when they sell the team, which is currently valued at around $800mil more than what they paid for them back in back in 2007.
When you hit for a higher average, your BABIP is going to be higher which is a simple fact. A perfect example is someone like Rod Carew.who was a ..328 hitter for his career with a 359 BABIP, Kirby Puckett who was a career .318 hitter with a career .342 BABIP, Joe Mauer who hit .306 with a .341 BABIP, or even Ichiro Suzuki who was a career.311 hitter with a .338 BABIP. So having a high average like .341 is likely to give you a .360,.370, maybe even as high as .a .380 BABIP. If he regresses, it might not be that much. As for the defensive side, you also have to remember that the 6 guys ahead of him in defense also have 100 to 150 more innings than Arcia. If you go off a pure rate basis given the inning, Arcia would likely be a top 5 or 4 defender, which is still very good, especially considering what he’s being paid.
His BABip is .285 for his career. MLB average is around .300 every season. Arcia is at .406 today. His BA will fall close to 100 points. His OPS more than that.
When he is at .260 or so at the end of the season, come back and talk again.
Arcia is #7 on defense using rate stats. Not top 5.
Do you want the best guy or the cheaper guy.
@Pads fan obviously the Braves have a budget just like your Padres do. Personally I would much rather have Arcia for $2-3 million per year over Dansby for $25 million plus. Allows the Braves to spread the money which in turn allows them to be deep enough to withstand injuries and still be the best team in the NL. Maybe if your team didn’t go for the “best guy” and try to win the offseason and instead spread the money around a little they wouldn’t still be under .500 this late in the season. I can’t even believe you’re asking that question as a Pads fan.
You still fail to understand that higher averages require higher BABIP’s, it’s mathematics. Also that’s fine that his defense is 7th, that’s just a byproduct of him getting hurt and missing time, thus his running totals have suffered due to the sure fact that he lacks 100 to 150 inning to everyone above him. But if you adjust for averages on the top 7, he’d be a top 5 defender, I don’t understand how you don’t get that? It’s like trying to claim Jorge Mateo is the best in UZR, but when looking at UZR/150 which adjusts UZR over 150 games Mateo’s 3rd, to Lindor and Bichette. I don’t want the best guy, I want the best guy who’s going to out perform his salary. Right now Wander Franco’s leading that pack out performing his salary by $24mil, Arcia’s 2nd as has out performed his salary by $16.1mil as he’s 5th in fWAR, while Geraldo Perdomo’s 3rd at almost $14.8mil. That’s just smart business, and if you had a team of overperformers, you’d likely be a really good team.
Yep the Padres are the Mets off the West Coast. Over pay and under perform. Neither the Mets or the Padres will make the postseason this year.
The Padres have a budget? Boy, you’d never know it with the way they sign or trade for big ticket items.
BTW, I believe, come season’s end, the Padres will be champs of the NL West so long as they don’t suffer any serious injuries. Probably gonna go shopping for a SP before the trade deadline.
And just because the Padres suck and you are bitter doesn’t add any credibility to your comments. If the LOLMets weren’t so bad this season the Padres would be the big story. That is a team that overspent on payroll like you want everyone to do, and they aren’t getting a good ROI.
@chopper The point is that the Braves have enough revenue that they don’t have to make a decision based on salary. They can easily afford the best player and still have enough money to have a deep roster.
The Braves have revenue in the mid $500 million range. That is about $150-$180 million more than the Padres do. If the Padres can afford to spend $250 million and still not be losing money, the Braves can spend appreciably more.
Any more excuses you want to try to make for the corporation that owns the Braves being more interested in pocketing profits than having the best players on the field?
First off, Arcia was not expected to start at SS this season. He was supposed to be a backup to Grissom. Him playing well so far is luck. Pure and simple and Arcia’s luck is about to run out.
You still don’t understand that its an unsustainable average and BABip. It will drop. Come back at the end of the season and lets discuss his BA and OPS then. We have multiple seasons to know what and who Arcia is. A .243/.296/.369/.664 and 75 OPS+ batter.
A look at the last 3 seasons, something that is critical in talking about player defensive performance, shows Arcia at 30th in MLB. at SS among players with a qualifying number of attempts. He is worse than Bogaerts. .
His DRS per 1200 innings this season is 7th. His OAA per 1200 innings is 7th. That you don’t get that says volumes.
If as a fan you care about salary then you have some issues. Caring about corporate profits is not a fan;s job. Wanting to see the best possible player on the field is a fans job.
The Braves revenue will be around $585 million this season. That means that they can spend somewhere around $292.5 million on CBT player payroll and still make a healthy profit.
As a fan, what you should want is that they spend close enough to that number to put the best possible team on the field.
The Braves have gotten lucky so far with Arcia. That luck is about to run out. .260 BA with a .750 OPS at seasons end if he stays healthy.
Come back and discuss it in October
Facts add credibility. The team I root for doesn’t change facts.
So you are saying you want the corporation that owns the Braves to make more profits instead of putting the best possible players on the field? That tells me a lot about you.
@pads And again…..even if they were to spend $300 million they would still have a budget. Why is that so difficult for you to understand? I would still want Arcia over Dansby to spread the funds and not be stuck with an aging shortstop past his prime in a few years. That’s how you build a sustainable winner but I can completely understand how you don’t get that as a Pads fan.
Also they do not “pocket profits” and all of their financials are publicly available if you care to look. Seems you don’t understand the difference between revenue and profits. I don’t care what any team or businesses revenue is. You can’t base anything off of that and it’s pointless to continue bringing up revenue.
If you spend all the profits, what money do they have to pay all of their 500+ million in debts?
I agree with you, but there is nothing saying he won’t be a league average or slightly better hitter while playing decent defense at a premium position for less than $3 million a year! The braves still made a smart move.
What everyone is missing is the fact that Arcia was not supposed to start at all. Going into camp the job was Grissom’s to lose. Arcia was there to be a MI backup.
That he is hitting well right now is a fluke, not a plan by the Braves. Like any intelligent person they expected to see him be the .243/.296/.369/.664 and 75 OPS+ batter he has been over his career or if they were lucky he might repeat his career year from 2022 and put up a .244/.316/.416/.733 season at the plate. AA has said several times how pleasantly surprised their are by his performance this season. That doesn’t scream “WE PLANNED THIS”.
This is luck so far and Arcia’s luck is about to run out. I still think it will be a CAREER YEAR for him at around .260 with a .750 OPS.. His best year ever.
I agree with you completely, it was nice SHOCKING turn of events. I think they would have started Grissom if he could play passable ss defense. I will be happy as a clam if he puts up an OPS+ 105 while playing good but not spectacular defense at SS in the upcoming seasons. He would still have some value if he does that for sure.
This guy has been fantasy gold for me this year.Qualifies at 3 spots.Def keeps the BA top shelf.I think he’s even hitting 8 or 9 too.ATL ain’t playing round.Do they even have any real needs?
There was no way that the braves were going to be able to pay Swanson the money he got on the open market. Anyone who was realistic knew that going into the off season.
While many fans expected Grissom to take off when given the chance, the Braves obviously didn’t think either him,nor Shewmake were ready to be the starter on a playoff contender. Unexpectedly to almost all, Arcia was given that opportunity and has excelled. I was ecstatic when they inked him at the price they did, even as a back up infielder, but he has exceeded expectations with his on his field production.
Yes, no one expects him to be able to keep up this level of production, BUT there have been several players who have benefitted positively from Kevin Seitzer’s instruction when they get ample play time. It is easy to forget that he was once a highly regarded prospect and perhaps has just finally started putting things together at the major league level.
I am just glad he has.
Arcia was a career .250 with a .682 OPS hitter over 7 seasons and 538 games played. In 4 of those seasons, 2017-2020, he was the starter for the Brewers. The Braves didn’t expect him to do what he is doing so far this season either. They expected him to be a league average or slightly below average backup middle infielder. How do I know? AA said so during the offseason.
2020 was Arcia’s best season at the plate and I expect him to surpass that slightly with a .260 BA and .750 OPS. A career year for him.
What an idiot Anthony Franco is being for dealing with definitives. He can do this, he won’t do that. Come on man, you have no clue as to whether he’s is or isn’t going to continue hitting like he has, so don’t make those claims.
In the five 162-game seasons between 2017-22, there are 681 qualified hitter seasons. One (Yoán Moncada in ’19) had a BABIP north of .400. Arcia isn’t going to keep a BABIP over .400 over a full season because it’s almost impossible for anyone.
If you mention BABIP all the time why do you never mention line drive %, hardhit rate, etc? I think it would at least be helpful to mention the hardhit rate is around 47%. Interestingly he is hitting way fewer fly balls. I think it’s important to add the hardhit because you are implying, constantly talking up BABIP, that it is mostly luck but the stat is meaningless on its own. The hard hit rate is 10% or so above average. He won’t sustain the BABIP because he’s eventually gonna have a cold stretch.
These writers’ constant poor use of BABIP is dumbing the audience down, getting them to repeat your errors in approaching advanced stats.
“This season’s 45.8% hard contact percentage (batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ MPH) is a personal best. A lot of that contact is coming on the ground, so he’s still not making a huge power impact. Combining average or better walk and strikeout numbers with a lot of hard, low-angle batted balls is a recipe for getting on base consistently. Arcia isn’t going to sustain a .400 OBP, but he looks capable of keeping his on-base a fair bit higher than the .312 league mark for shortstops.”
I think perhaps the big key for him is he is hitting the ball in the air less. He seemed to try to hit homers a lot in the past. He seems to have a much better approach now. He still guesses some early in the count and tries to ambush, which is fine, but overall is much better
That is the opposite of reality. Hitting the ball on the ground equals a lower BA over a season. That is part of the reason that everyone that understands baseball knows his BA is going to regress.
His xBA is .267 today. Over the course of the season his BA will drop to that number or lower.
Tell Pads Fans that Luis Castillo thinks differently about ground balls and low averages. Guy was a .290 hitter for his career, and has the 2nd highest ground ball rate in baseball since 1990 at 63% I remember him well when he played for the Marlins all those years.
That’s simply untrue. There is no one size fits all for one thing. For another thing most fly ball outs give no chance for luck to factor in. Balls on the ground can easily sneak through. Not to mention in his case he is hitting it on the ground more because he is not yanking balls on the outer half of the plate to the left fielder.
Everyone around the game knew he’d cool off a month ago but has put up nearly identical numbers. Everyone will keep saying it til eventually he hits a cold streak and they’ll all, like you, say “told ya so”.
I read somewhere that while with the Brewers Arcia was a top prospect. I think the Brewers just discarded him too soon. While with the Braves, he has performed well. The difference is that he got the chance to play this year and ran with it. Baseball is just so mental, you have to be strong mentally. All the great players had it, strong mentally. Think about it, a player can bat 4 to 5 times a game, hit the ball hard and still be 0 for 5. That will wear on you, especially if it happens too often, then a player will get to pressing. Baseball is a tough game. I like Arcia and will continue to pull for him. He not only has performed offensively but has exceeded my expectations defensively.
Arcia was the 12th highest paid international player the year he signed, and was also 6th in the top 100 prospect list in 2016 when he came up, which was 2 spots ahead of Dansby on the top 100 list. So yes he was very musth a top prospect coming up.
Very “musth”…..is this Mike Tyson’s account?
I’ve always been way higher on Arcia’s potential than most anyone else, but I’d be really surprised if he finished the season with an ops over .800. Which is more than adequate from a good defensive SS.
Honestly it doesn’t surprise me at all he’s found success with Atlanta.
I think the trade and the universal DH has helped him out a lot. Milwaukee always hit him in front of the pitcher, which is not a really great place to put a young player who is very aggressive at the plate.
It also helps that he plays for a team that lets him showcase the things that make him an extraordinary defender. With the Brewers he was constantly moved all over and never given the freedom to position himself.
Coming up Arcia was known for his incredible defensive instincts and his aggressive approach at the plate. Milwaukee handcuffed him and act shocked when he didn’t fulfill his potential.
I understand why the Brewers did it, and I understand why they gave him away. IMO it just wasnt the right move to make. He was never a fit for Stearns imagination of what a successful team build is. Milwaukee needs to get above average offense from every spot in the lineup bc they refuse to spend money on a middle of the order. They over use analytics to position defensive players to help overcome those players defensive shortcomings (Shaw/Moose at 2B). The combination of those 2 things makes it very difficult for a young player to find his footing especially when he’s not put in positions to be successfully.
I’ve been saying this since the day it happened. Stearns majorly screwed up when he traded Grisham for Urias expecting Urias to take over at SS. They assumed Urias bat 1st approach and their defensive analytics would be a better fit at SS then Arcia was. Not only was that a terrible idea, but then he went and doubled down on it by giving Arcia to Atlanta, and trading Rasmussen and Feyereisen to TB for Adames bc Urias was totally unplayable at SS. Luckily for him J.P got hurt or this could’ve ended up looking like a much worse overall outcome. Especially if J.P continued to never give up a single run and Rass stayed off the IL this year.
Milwaukee has gotten decent contributions from Adames, Urias, and Lauer. Outside of this season that is. This year Lauer isn’t even an above average milb pitcher, Urias has a .500 ops, and Adames looks both lucky and surprised every time he makes contact at the plate.
The Brewers spent several hundred million on the middle of the order. They are still paying for one of those bats in Yelich.
So much else wrong in your post that its hard to determine where to start, so I won’t. Getting the 1st one totally wrong was enough to set the tone for wrongness.
Ummm???
Clearly you’ve never watched a Brewer game.
Yelich is the leadoff hitter, and several hundred million dollars would probably be enough to cover the middle of the Brewers line up for the next few decades.
The guys they currently bat 3-6 on a regular basis are some combination of
Adames- ops .645 ($8.7arb)
Tellez- ops .706 ($4.9arb)
Miller- ops .730 ($730k pre-arb)
Contreras- ops .757 ($739k pre-arb)
Anderson- ops. .716 ($3.5)
You could add in Winker if you like bc he’s been hitting in the 2 hole all year, but the only reason is bc they salary swapped him for Wong.
Winker- ops .562 ($8.2)
That’s like $25mil for the season. Add in Yelich plus the rest of their starting lineup and it bumps up to about $50mil for the season.
Nice to see Arcia succeeding in ATL.
Your key statement “He (Arcia) was never a fit for Stearns imagination of what a successful team build is” is a perfect example of Stearns/Counsell thinking they’re the smartest guys in the room. I would add Stearns/Counsell prefers a certain type of player that fits their “image” of what an MLB player is. Simply look at who’s been traded out of or allowed to leave via FA out of Milwaukee over the last several years. Versus who’s been brought in.
While I’m glad they brought in Adames. Stearns is a vastly overrated GM and you have pointed out just a few of his foolish trades.
“Midway through Spring Training Grissom appeared likely to land the job” paraphrasing. Yes this was true offensively but they were looking at defense more. He managed to rack up a lot of negative WAR in a short amount of time playing short while Arcia was out. I can only assume he wasn’t much better than that in spring training. Arcia has a canon of an arm. No Rafael Furcal but it’s really good and much more accurate.
Arcia might have a top 10 arm, but what is a given is that he’s a full 7.6 mph on average higher than Dansby on his throws this year.
Going forward, I still think Grissom brings more to the table than Arcia. As the author projects and predicts, Arcia’s glitzy numbers are due for regression.
Still, if the other eight hitters in the line up continue to do their thing, the Braves can more than afford to go glove over bat at the six.
Considering that Arcia’s on pace to produces only slightly less WAR than what Dansby did last year, that’s an extremely tall task.
As I mention his BABIP is nearly pointless to mention because he has near a 50% hard hit rate. I’m sure he is due for some regression tho. But Grissom was the worst shortstop in the majors while he was up. He has nowhere to play unless an injury happens. I’d either transition him to LF long term or trade him.
His hard hit % is only a small amount higher than last year and his exit velocity is lower and his barrel rate is exactly the same. His XBA is .267. His XwOBA is .334.
This is luck. 100%. Regression is coming. That expected BA is what you are going to see in the books at the end of the season.
By the same logic you could say he was unlucky last year considering his hardhit rate was well above average. And it’s 10% above average this season. He’s obviously gonna regress but whether it’s luck or not is another question. Do you deny that he is hitting the ball in the air about 10% less? This is a good recipe for a higher BA. It’s a good recipe for better luck too, no doubt. If you ever saw him play he used to always try to swing out of his shoes to hit a homer. He’s content with solid contact now even if it’s on the ground. Regression may be coming but he’s an above average hitter
Arcia made the “final ballot” for NL SS with Lindor. Even if Lindor starts, Arcia deserves to visit Seattle for the 2023 All Star Game. Kudos to voters for voting for him.
Largely just because of braves fans. They are gonna probably vote in Mike Harris. The absurd thing is Ozuna is listed as an OF and Rosario is left off ballot (only starter who isn’t on ballot.obviously he’s not an all-star but I think they were afraid Braves fans would vote him in because they like him so much). But if Rosario were able to DH like Ozuna he would be close to being an all-star. Only reason Ozuna has good WAR is he doesn’t have to play the OF.
It’s great to see how many trade rumors are actually posted on this site.
I feel like an insider.
June isn’t trade season. It’s great to see MLBTR fill the deadtime with interesting alternative articles.
I didn’t expect Arcia to do this well but I will take it.
AA gets most of the credit for this, he has signed all the right players and built a dynasty type team. Everything he touches turns to gold.
Why is MLBTR writing about Arcia if he isn’t a trade/extension/transaction candidate? Is his agent paying them for it to juice his numbers in arbitration? Or are they just trying to recoup some readership from Fangraphs, trying to do some half-baked attempt at statistical analysis? Either way, it’s pathetic.