Last week’s lead Big Hype Prospect, Andrew Abbott, is already on his way to the Majors. Let’s see if we can pull the trick two weeks in a row.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Colton Cowser, 23, OF, BAL (AAA)
186 PA, 8 HR 5 SB, .347/.484/.590
When he hit the injured list with a quad injury in mid-May, Cowser was playing his way into Major League consideration. Cowser returned to action over the weekend, going a combined 4-for-5 with two walks, a double, and a homer. He’s produced multiple hits in 14 of 39 games this season. Cedric Mullins is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast. The club also has a partial opening at designated hitter which can be filled on a more permanent basis by Anthony Santander. Cowser has the athletic ability to stick in center field, but he could be a truly plus defender in the outfield corners. There’s concern he’ll struggle against left-handed pitching early in his career. At worst case, he looks like a high-probability strong-side platoon hitter. That’s why he’s creeping towards Top 10 prospect status on many lists.
Elly De La Cruz, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (AAA)
186 PA, 12 HR, 11 SB, .297/.398/.633
My recent fantasy chat included at least a half dozen questions about when De La Cruz will debut. I don’t have any special insight into the Reds thought process. The decision is complex, made even more so due to new service time and draft pick compensation rules. Role playing as the Reds, there is a certain attractiveness to following the Corbin Carroll model. As you’ll recall, Carroll debuted in late-August and performed decently in his debut. He’s now on pace to handily win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The timing of his initial promotion ensured he would be club-controlled through 2028 (a contract extension has since further extended the Diamondbacks control). A later debut for De La Cruz would ensure he’s under control through at least 2029.
Were it up to me, he would be in the Majors tomorrow. Of all prospects in the minors, he has the least to prove. To my eyes, he’s the most physically impressive prospect since Fernando Tatis Jr. Among his most impressive traits are a 93.4-mph average exit velocity with a 118.8-mph max EV. This season, Matt Olson leads the league with a hardest-hit ball of 118.6-mph.
Dalton Rushing, 22, C, LAD (A+)
188 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .261/.431/.507
Rushing has followed up a wild 2022 debut with an impressive, discipline-forward performance. Defensive reviews of the left-handed hitting catching prospect skew vaguely negative. He’s a high-effort receiver who will need to work hard to polish his game. Since his bat is so advanced, a move to a corner position might be required so he can progress through the minors at a more rapid pace. The Dodgers are blessed with a number of highly regarded catchers. They can certainly afford for Rushing to play elsewhere. It might be advisable to get Rushing’s bat in Double-A before he becomes too accustomed to a 19.7 percent walk rate. Discipline is an excellent trait to possess, but it needs to be coupled with selective aggression within the strike zone.
For clarity the speculation about Rushing moving off catcher is my own based on the Dodgers inventory. I’ve not seen a scout suggest it’s necessary.
Mark Vientos, 23, DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 166 PA, 13 HR, .333/.416/.688
Vientos possesses (and gets to) incredibly consistent power in-game. Although he’s only hitting .188/.206/.281 in 34 plate appearances, his exit velocities (96.1-mph average, 112.8-mph max) tell another story. Among hitters with over 30 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have tallied higher average exit velocities. While it’s in part a small sample fluke, Vientos did average 94.5-mph in Triple-A. The flaws in his game could limit his ceiling. In particular, he tends to make low-angle, pulled contact. He’s expected to be strikeout prone. He could find himself cast as a second-division starter or limited to facing certain pitcher types.
Colt Keith, 21, 3B, DET (AA)
217 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .321/.396/.563
Keith has built upon a breakout 2022 in High-A by doing much the same in Double-A. He’s even trimmed three points from his swinging strike rate. There’s risk he’ll continue to move down the defensive spectrum. He was being trained as a second baseman last season, but he’s made only three starts at the keystone in 2023. His bat is his carrying characteristic, fueled by plus discipline and a willingness to ambush mistakes in the zone. Wherever he winds up defensively, his bat looks like it will play in the Majors.
Three More
Bryan Woo, SEA (23): The Mariners opted to jump Woo straight from Double-A for his debut last Saturday. His performance in Double-A was masterful (44 innings, 2.05 ERA). His first start, not so much (2 IP, 7 H, 6 R). Scouts have long loved the life and shape of his fastball. His slider and changeup remain works in progress.
Chase Hampton, NYY (21): One of the top-performing pitching prospects in the minors, Hampton is beginning to draw attention from scouts. His mid-90s fastball reportedly tunnels well with a plus slider and curve. As with many young power pitchers, his changeup lags behind his other offerings. Hampton has an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in High-A.
Luken Baker, STL (26): A former second-round draft pick, Baker experienced a breakthrough in Triple-A this season, bashing 18 home runs in 244 plate appearances. He produced a 92.8-mph average and 113.5-mph max EV. Baker made his debut as the designated hitter on Sunday.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
“Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast.”
I’d say, “so far so good, but none of us are holding our breath”… But yeah, I also cannot disagree with that way the author puts it either. Lol.
He’s looked strong so far in a small sample size.
Hicks move could possibly “kill two birds with one stone”. League level player to help cover for Mullins DL stint and, if he keeps producing, stop gap until Cowser is permanently on roster. Also, in what looks like a corresponding move, Kjerstad was promoted to AAA recently.
Hicks may allow the Orioles to send down/drop McKenna when Mullins returns in a couple weeks. McKenna is supposed to be valuable for his defense yet has so many brain farts and bad plays that he brings nearly nothing of value to the team.
keith to me carries nick solak-like risk but if he gets regular time it could work out really well. woo is another risky prospect, but SEA has the opportunity to see what they have in him before he was available in the RV draft this winter. baker would be a cool older breakout story similar to voit out of the STL org
I don’t know if I would say that Carroll will handily win the ROY award. Not the way Matt McLain is playing.
Spencer Steer waves hello
If Hiflew wasn’t a coward who muted me, I’d tell him that Dominic Fletcher will run away with the ROY once he gets recalled
He can’t win ROY while in the minors. Even if he is called back up and continues to play as he did before being sent down, he is not in Carroll class on offense. 145 OPS+ to 126. That is a hug gap.
Nah the voters will look past all that and give it to short king Dom. It’s the right thing to do
LMAO. Ok. If you say so.
It’s not just what I say, it’s what the voters are already saying. Fact is, we’re witnessing the birth of a legend and if you disagree, you probably like sissy hypnotism or some other degenerate pastimes.
Bruh, just stop it! No one is saying he is favorite to win the NLROY. In fact, barring an injury to his own teammate, Corbin Carroll, he is the runaway NLROY. And Fletcher isn’t even in the top 5.
Erm, Fletcher literally has the same chance of winning ROY as Steer and Mclain
Yes, they all have a chance and barring an injury or second half collapse. The NLROY is Carroll’s to lose. McClain is a distant 3rd from Steer and Fletcher who is currently residing in the minors would have to come back up and explode out of the gate to catch up to Carroll and Steer.
When is your sissy hypnotism appointment?
C’mon man, if you are going to be ignorant at least be intelligent about it.
I’m ignorant? You think Matt McClain and Spencer Steer have a nonzero chance to win ROY!!!! *insert laughing while crying emojis*
I was referring to your sissy coment.
I see why people mute you.
just saw rushing play yesterday. He got hit by a pitch and must have said something to the ump because he got thrown out half way running to first
That play was ludicrous, he barely reacted at all and the umpire did an UmpShow. Which in High A seems even more silly.
(Tangential, his hit tool is very advanced indeed and Dodgers are rightly sticking with him at catcher now because as he improves there, his value is so much higher than if he’s a 1B/utility/DH.)
agreed. I was sitting front row and didn’t hear him say anything. I surprised the great lakes manager didn’t lose it
He told Rodriguez, “I am surprised you didn’t call that a strike” as he was leaving the box to go to 1B. He had been chirping at the ump from the on deck circle throughout Vogel’s at bat.
What ain’t a big hype, or big joke is the Tigers being no hit by Nola tonight At 88 pitches to start the 7th it’ll probably have to be a joint operation, but we can’t shrug off how bad Detroit is hitting right now. Wow, they are stinking up the joint tonight.
DATELINE PHILADELPHIA…………………….NO HITTER BROKEN………………..3 RUN JOB BY MATON WHO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT GOT LAST YEARS WORLD SERIES RING PRESENTED BY D.D….
The Phillies didn’t win the world series last year… Does everyone get one?
You get a ring for winning the pennant, I believe.
Abbott looks good in his debut, so far he’s pitched 6 inngs 1 hit and 6 S0.
He was outstanding, though he understandbly had some first inning butterflies.
Maton who’s been in a serious slump since May 1st jacked one to right at around Nola’s 106 pitch of the night. Ear;lier in the 7th Detroit started with it’s 3 walk of the night, then a error by the third basemen put first an second no outs. Baddoo fanned, Tork grounded out to third, still no hitter intact. Maton was at 0-2 count looking lost then caught the change up flush and out.
Then reality hits again and the Tigers give the three back in the bottom of the 7th.
Colt Keith or Justyn Henry Malloy are sounding pretty good right now. I’m betting they could hit .250 which puts them ahead of 7/9 of the Tigers lineup. They seem to be walking more than hitting lately. Maton seems to walk or Homer. If he can figure out how to get a few more hits his OPS would benefit.
Neither Maton nor Ibanez should be in the majors, but Harris didn’t want the Tigers to excell this year, not with Avila’s players. So he cut Harold and Willi Castro, and then non-tendered 2 time Tiger of the Year, Candelario, in a disagreement over $1MM. Now they have no depth at either 2B or 3B. It really doesn’t matter whether Keith plays 2B or 3B, as they need a bat at both positions.
I don’t think the plan was for them to win this year, and honestly they have done way better than expected. We aren’t going to build a winning team giving playing time to Willie or Harold Castro. I like them both but a facelift was needed. I agree about Candelario, but I don’t blame Harris for giving Schoop a chance to rebound (like Candelario he was a year removed from a good season) and taking a shot with young players like Maton either. McKinistry worked out just fine and in the long run I think Maton will too. Ibanez sucks. There are lots of Avila holdovers on the team. Not like he traded everyone that Avila had brought in.
Cowser is hitting .320 this season against lefties. I get he wasn’t great against them last year but you usually don’t fake your way to .320 in June
And the bulk of his PAs against LHP were in Aberdeen which can be tough on LHH vs. LHP to begin with. Something about the hitter’s eye there.
EV launch angle don’t determine whether a prospect is good or not it’s irrelevant data
Not irrelevant, but not the only data point.
They’re a nice case in point since you can’t really fake ‘em. Other stats like ISO can get out of whack or temporarily misleading. Or a guy can be over/undermatched by level and the EVs will still tell you something.
If you hit the ball over 110 mph at a 21% launch angle it will clear the fence in all 30 ballparks. If you hit the ball 105 mph at a 30% launch angle it will clear the fences in all 30 ballparks. Not the only relevant data, but FAR from irrelevant.
If a player has hit the ball harder in the minors than anyone in the majors AND he has an OPS over 1.000, there is a nearly 100% chance that he is good. That is a player you call up asap so you can see what you have against MLB pitchers,
If your launch angle is under 12%, it really doesn’t matter if you hit the ball 120 mph or 20 mph, you aren’t getting the ball over the fence.
Vientos splits were pretty close in AAA. I wish they’d give him a legit shot at DH against both LHP and RHP. I’d much rather see him strike out with a ridiculous swing at the ball than see Vogelbach strikeout looking again.
Vientos doesn’t look like he’s ready yet. Of course, Vogelbach doesn’t look like he is either.
Too bad about next year’s FA class.
Worstest ever. No kidding. Beamer has no luck either…..
I really have to question this speculation on Rushing. Do teams really try to force-fit prospects into a certain position based on their depth charts? If so I’ve never heard of it. Seems to me they are going try to find the best scenario for every player to build their skills and value.
Teams absolutely make position decisions based on organizational need. The most common is the SP/RP decision. Fringy catchers with good bats usually start shedding C starts in the upper minors and don’t fully drop the position until their second or third season in the Majors. A team like the Dodgers could take it fast or slow with Rushing. I’m just guessing they let the bat call the promotions and eventually move him down the spectrum. Most recent example is Varsho. (Schwarber, Delgado, Willingham, etc etc)
Tell me about those examples, I’m not familiar. I do know of cases such as Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers didn’t transition him to pitching because they didn’t have the organizational need for a catcher, they did it because he was much more valuable as a pitcher. Teams can fill their organizational needs through trades too.
The salary/free agent structure is broken when teams are only 5 or 6 games out of first place but decide to keep possibly their best player in AAA to get 1 more year of service time.
Sadly for about 20 out of 30 teams, it is a necessary evil to survive.
I agree it is broke , but both sides accepted the terms of the terrible CBA.
Agreed, You are correct, I’m just frustrated. It’s almost as bad as when they forced guys into the majors with the “bonus baby” system in the 1950’s. That was the total opposite direction of course. A happy middle ground would allow fans to enjoy seeing exciting young players.