With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player in recent years. We’ve already published some honorable mentions, the #10 entry and the #9 deal. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto #8…
The Nationals were consistently competitive in the second decade of the millennium, finishing with a winning record in each season from 2012 to 2019. They qualified for the postseason five times in that stretch and won the World Series in that final year.
The next decade got off to a rough start, as they went 26-34 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Nonetheless, they went into 2021 with some excellent players still on the roster, including Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. They fortified that group by trading for Josh Bell and giving one-year deals to Brad Hand, Kyle Schwarber and Jon Lester.
Unfortunately, they couldn’t get things back on track that season and had a record of 48-55 on July 30. They were in fourth place in the National League East, seven games behind the Mets with Philadelphia and Atlanta between them. They were even further back in the Wild Card race, 11 games, as the West featured three excellent clubs in the Giants, Dodgers and Padres.
That put them into sell mode at the deadline and they did plenty of it. Each of Turner, Scherzer, Hand and Schwarber were traded, as were Yan Gomes, Josh Harrison and Daniel Hudson. The deal that sent Scherzer and Turner to the Dodgers technically wasn’t a rental trade, as Turner had another year of control, so we didn’t consider it for this series. Those other deals mostly yielded players that are still in the minors as of this writing. But in addition to all those, the Nats also made a trade that sent Lester to the Cardinals in exchange for MLB-ready outfielder Lane Thomas, who we will get to in a moment.
Lester had already had a very impressive career that began back in 2006. He had many great seasons with the Red Sox and Cubs and already had three World Series rings. In 2021, he was 37 years old and had naturally fallen off a bit from his peak. His ERA went from 3.32 in 2018 to 4.46 the year after and 5.16 in the shortened 2020 season.
The Nats felt he still had something left in the tank and signed him to a one-year, $5MM deal. Lester made 16 starts for the Nationals with a 5.02 ERA. His 14.9% strikeout rate was a noticeable drop from his peak years but his 8.5% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate were around league average. In short, he was a back-of-the-rotation starter, which is just what the Cardinals needed.
Their rotation had been sliced up by injuries to Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Martínez, Dakota Hudson and others. Despite that, they were hovering above .500 and in the playoff race. They didn’t go after aces that summer, just guys who could take the ball and give them a chance, figuring that a modest stabilization of the rotation could be enough for them to improve their fortunes. They grabbed 36-year-old Wade LeBlanc, 38-year-old J.A. Happ and the 37-year-old Lester to fortify things alongside 39-year-old Adam Wainwright.
The gambit would pay off for St. Louis as they finished strong. Lester did his job by making 12 starts with a 4.36 ERA. The Cards ended the season at 90-72, securing a playoff spot, though they lost the Wild Card game to the Dodgers.
For the Nats, they weren’t able to make much use of Lester’s services, so it was a logical move to swap him out for a promising outfielder in Thomas. He had made his major league debut with the Cardinals in 2019 and hit an excellent .316/.409/.684 in 44 plate appearances but was nonetheless frequently optioned to the minors. Despite his strong results, he was squeezed out of the St. Louis outfield that also featured the likes of Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, José Martínez, Tyler O’Neill and others.
Thomas would continue to get sporadic playing time in the next couple of seasons. He only got into 18 games in the 2020 season and then 32 more in 2021 prior to the trade. He struggled badly in those two cups of coffee, hitting just .107/.235/.179, but continued showing his promise in the minors. He was slashing .265/.339/.451 in Triple-A at the time of the deal.
The Nationals likely hoped that Thomas would thrive with a better path to playing time, and that has largely proven to be true. He was briefly kept in Triple-A after the deal but was called up after just three games. He hit .270/.364/.489 at the major league level in the final few weeks of 2021, launching seven home runs and stealing four bases in just 45 games.
2022 saw him finally get the everyday gig he didn’t get in St. Louis, as he tallied 548 plate appearances in 146 games. It wasn’t a spectacular showing, but he was serviceable. He hit 17 home runs and stole eight bases, though his 7.5% walk rate and 24.1% strikeout rate were both slightly worse than average. His .241/.301/.404 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 96 and he was worth 1.1 wins above replacement on the year according to FanGraphs, 1.6 at Baseball Reference.
Things are going better here in 2023, as he already has nine home runs and five steals. His plate discipline numbers are fairly similar, but he’s hitting .281/.336/.455 for a wRC+ of 114. His .350 batting average on balls in play is much higher than last year’s .291, but that can’t be entirely dismissed as just good luck since his hard hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity have also increased compared to a year ago.
Defensively, Thomas isn’t considered an excellent fielder, which is surprising considering his 95th percentile sprint speed. Nonetheless, he’s capable of holding his own at any of the three outfield slots, which is useful for a rebuilding club that is rotating through various players on a regular basis. He qualified for arbitration for the first time in the most recent offseason and is making $2.2MM this year. He’ll be eligible for two more passes before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.
Whether the Nats can come out of their rebuild in that time frame remains to be seen. But even in the event that they linger outside of contention for a while, they could always market Thomas and his remaining control to other clubs around the league.
In the end, both teams got what they wanted out of the deal. The Cards firmed up their rotation as hoped and were able to make a late charge and earn a playoff spot, while the Nats turned a couple months of a veteran pitcher into four and a half years of a solid outfielder who has stepped into an everyday role.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Lester era in Washington had been completely erased from my brain. Thomas definitely was a nice return for what Lester provided them.
“wait, who?” was my reaction as well
I look at Lane Thomas and all the other outfielders they traded away that are having success vs what they are currently getting from there struggling injury riddled outfield and I laugh… I laugh so hard all John Mozeliak needed to win another championship?
Fools gold, and 50 million for for a 3rd baseman and he calls that “the Cardinals Way” well folks I call Goldschmidt!
I’m not the biggest Mo fan but are you suggesting that the Arenado and Goldschmidt trades were anything short of absolute magic?
Always liked Lane Thomas but he did not play much in St. L. Looked great at times but he struggled especially on defense. Not surprised he is playing well now with more consistent opportunities. Lester pitched damn well down the stretch for us. Could Mo have gotten more for Lane? Probably not at the time but looking back now, yep, more reason to say “Mo Sucks!”
“Probably not at the time…” You can look back all you want, but as he would not have gotten playing time in STL due to the players ahead of him, that was the only time that mattered. He probably would have left as a 6year MiL FA and the Cards would have got nothing.
Too much bat for a innings eater non playoff caliber pitcher.
I have a feeling that the Cardinals giving away talent at discount rates is going to be a consistent theme in this series.
Well this one isn’t anything to lose sleep over. Above average nice player to have but not a stud. But they got Happ the same year for a non playoff reliever Gant. That’s what makes this one hurt. Not like other teams were in the market for it’s time to retire pitching.
Johan Oviedo is the one that hurts. If we had just signed another starter in the offseason we wouldn’t been in the position of again having to shop for one at the deadline. We have money. We don’t have ML ready arrms.
They gave up on him as a starter. A good reliever for good starter rental is expensive but understandable. Q was in demand and even though not a ace he was one for 2 months with you guys. Giving up on him too soon was a bigger mistake than the trade. Pirates traded 3 assets in a row for relievers. So that’s what it took. Reds Mets traded better relievers for platoon bats.
I’m not saying it wasn’t a fair price. I’m just saying we could have avoided the situation entirely. They knew Flaherty was “hurt” all offseason. If we had filled his spot in the rotation in the offseason, we would likely still have Oviedo.
Always best idea. Cheap free agents though. Don’t let it hurt though.
The Cardinals don’t need a below replacement level starter like Oviedo.
Forgot all about this deal. Seemed like an overpay for a pitcher like Lester at the time, even more so now. Another one that makes Mo look pretty bad in hindsight and not the best timing considering where the Cards are at right now.
Goldy, Arenado good. Most every other deal have been terrible. Wouldn’t Arozerena and Garcia look good in the outfield as opposed to the IL Boys. And don’t get started on the top end starters Ozuna cost them.
Kids a ball player. Reminds me of a younger Mitch Haniger when he had a little more speed.
I think it was the unexplained decline in defense that cost him in St Louis. He looked great when he first came up. Good reactions and routes. Then he just lost it 2020. Fans were wondering if he was suffering from long Covid or something as it really looked like his awareness went way down. So naturally the brass soured on him as defense had been valued before the fans have had the “pleasure” of watching Yepez, Burlison, and Walker butcher the outfield grass this year. But Lester did greatly benefit that struggling Cardinals team. Lester and Happ were such an improvement over watching John Gant pitch his way out of baseball while ruining the clubhouse. Don’t forget they were part of that monumental winning streak that should have saved Schildt’s job
If the Phillies were to trade Rhys Hoskins last year where do you think the players in return would rank
Win win
8th best of all recent time, some guy who’s having a decent third of a season? Woof. Can’t wait to see the top five
Nats get everyday outfielder for a back-of-the-rotation starter. Is what it is.
Good trade, but 8th best? Is this list from like the last 18 months of deadline deals? If so what’s the point of the exercise? We’re kinda accustomed to Bagwell, Smoltz, Torres type level pickups in these lists.
It was clearly laid out in the series intro that this is looking at the 2017-21 trade deadlines in order to provide context for readers wondering what their clubs might be able to get for rental players right now.
What Bill Lajoie, Bill Wood, and other GMs were willing to do in the late 80s and early 90s has zero bearing on how modern front offices operate or on what the White Sox could get for Giolito, the Cubs for Bellinger, etc.
Everyday outfielder for a back of the rotation starter for a contender. Isn’t that like every well-executed late season win-win deal? 8th best of all time, er *recent history? I know MLBTR is trying to milk content but sheez, this series is really a stretch.
Who cares whether its #8 in recent time or not. Its all subjective and it depends on how you wanna look at it.. How many clubs get anything decent in return at the TD for a 37 yo 3 month rental whose career was running on empty? Thomas has played well enough to deserve being a starting OF on alot of clubs. No one’s saying Thomas is an all star. But the Nats clearly made out well.
For a team so deep and an embarrassment of rich talent it’s amazing that they’ve needed to make desperate pitching trades the last three seasons to stay above water
Lane Thomas has needed a .350 BABIP just to get a 119 WRC+ this year. He’s barely above replacement level. He’s also a terrible defender even in the corners. So they’ve missed out on a whopping 1.6 WAR in 1.5 years roughly. Good for him for sticking on a MLB roster for sure, but casual fans lamenting this as some gaffe by Mo are grasping at straws all day on this one.
Well, he’s played slightly under two seasons of baseball for the Nats (253 games) and has generated 4.4 rWAR in that time for very little money. And he still comes with two more years of team control. To get that for the decaying remains of Jon Lester (who retired at the end of the 2021 season) is a definite win for the Nats, and a much better return than the average deadline deal. (I mean, it’s not as good as getting Tanner Roark for the decaying remains of Cristian Guzman, but few deals are). There’s now some buzz that the Nats might move Thomas at the deadline this year. So in that sense the prorated share of the $5M the Nats gave to Lester to be just a bit on the far side of bad worked out just fine.
We Nats fans are enjoying that trade quite a bit. Right now, Thomas is on pace for these 2023 numbers: 41 2Bs, 28 HRs, 83 RBI & .295/.344/.503. He’s a good general athlete, runs well, and while he doesn’t necessarily make the spectacular catch in right field, he has definitely improved as a fielder, and his arm is surprisingly good, with 6 assists so far this season. The Nats are a trial to follow, but they are scrappy, and Thomas is their current star. (If only we had a legit power hitter or two.) But for those of us who were cursing Rizzo for getting rid of all those uber-talented players in ’21-’22 — and were frustrated watching Lester pitch in DC in ’21 — Lane Thomas is the silver lining. These days, we take what we can get.