The Dodgers are coming off a relatively modest offseason by their standards, giving out a few one-year deals to free agents and making some small trades. It seems that may have been partially motivated by a desire to get under the luxury tax, though that plan effectively went out the window when Trevor Bauer’s suspension was reduced and some of his salary was put back on their books. Leaving the financials aside, there was another argument for the light touch in the winter. They had a crop of young players who seemed ready for some big league looks, having six players on Baseball America’s top 100 list coming into the year (Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone) despite ten consecutive postseason berths.
What results have been produced in the first six weeks of the season? Let’s take a look.
Remarkably, the young player who has stood out the most so far at the big league level is Outman, who wasn’t even one of the six Dodgers on the Baseball America top 100. BA actually ranked him the 10th best prospect in the system coming into the year. In fact, there’s been a wide gap in the evaluations on Outman throughout the industry on account of his incredible athleticism but huge strikeout concerns. Keith Law of The Athletic was bullish enough to rank Outman #89 in the league, but Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him down at #26 in the Dodgers’ system.
Outman, 26 years old this weekend, made the club’s Opening Day roster and is showing both the positive and negative sides of his game so far. He’s struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances, currently the seventh-highest among all qualified hitters in the majors. But despite those punchouts, he’s hit eight home runs in 38 games and is batting .281/.374/.578 overall for a wRC+ of 158. He won’t be able to maintain a .389 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is hitting the ball with some authority when he does make contact. His average exit velocity is in the 54th percentile among qualified hitters, maximum exit velocity 73rd, hard-hit rate 71st and barrel rate 84th.
In addition to that, he’s also stolen four bases and seems to be a capable defender in the outfield, where he’s spent most of his time in center. Defensive Runs Saved has him just below average at -1, whereas he’s at +3 Outs Above Average and has a 2.0 Ultimate Zone Rating.
Vargas, 23, made his major league debut last year but hit just .170/.200/.255 in his first 50 plate appearances. Nonetheless, the club seemed to head into this year with the plan being for him to take over second base while Gavin Lux slid over to shortstop, though Lux eventually suffered a season-ending injury and was replaced by Miguel Rojas.
The club’s confidence in Vargas seems to be paying off so far. He’s walked in 14.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 19% clip. He’s launched four home runs and his .219/.338/.430 batting line amounts to a 113 wRC+. That’s despite a .247 BABIP that’s well below this year’s .297 league average. His Statcast metrics aren’t quite as strong as Outman’s, but it still seems like luck-based regression should work in his favor, given his .265 xBA.
The defensive picture is a little less rosy, however, as he has negative grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA so far. That’s not terribly shocking since he was primarily a third baseman in the minors and his experience at the keystone is minimal. Perhaps his glovework at second will improve with more reps, but the club might also consider a position change in the future.
Busch, 25, was added to the club’s roster almost three weeks ago but has received only scattered playing time so far, 23 plate appearances in seven games. He’s hit just .211/.348/.211 in that time while striking out at a 39.1% clip. In 606 Triple-A appearances, he’s slashed .277/.363/.484 for a wRC+ of 109 with a much more palatable 24.8% strikeout rate.
Michael Grove/Ryan Pepiot/Gavin Stone/Bobby Miller
These four pitchers are all touted prospects to varying degrees and have either made their major league debuts or are getting close, though none of them has been able to make significant contributions just yet.
Grove, 26, has perhaps the lowest prospect stock of the bunch, as he was considered the club’s #18 prospect by BA and #12 by FanGraphs coming into the year. He’s made 11 appearances at the major league level between last year and this year but has a 5.96 ERA and modest 18.3% strikeout rate. He’s been on the injured list for the past three weeks due to a groin strain.
Pepiot, 25, made nine appearances for the club last year with a 3.47 ERA. He was expected to take an Opening Day rotation spot when Tony Gonsolin was injured, but then Pepiot suffered an oblique strain, which allowed Grove to take that spot. Pepiot was eventually transferred to the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be eligible to rejoin the big league club until the end of May at the earliest.
Stone, 24, was selected to the roster just over a week ago and had one rough spot start before getting optioned back to down to the minors. But in 13 Triple-A starts between last year and this year, he has a 2.87 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.
Miller, 24, is not yet on the 40-man roster and isn’t off to a great start this year. In 2022, between Double-A and Triple-A, he had a 4.25 ERA in 112 1/3 innings. He struck out 30.9% of opponents in that time against a 7.9% walk rate. But this year, he was slowed by shoulder soreness in spring and didn’t debut until recently. He’s pitched just five innings over two Triple-A outings, with a 7.20 ERA in that minuscule sample.
Future Options
Diego Cartaya is considered by many to be the club’s best prospect, though he’s not as close as some of the others. The 21-year-old catcher is on the 40-man roster but just reached Double-A for the first time this year and has limped out to a .186/.253/.314 batting line through his first 79 plate appearances at that level. With Will Smith and Austin Barnes holding down the big league jobs, there’s little reason for the club to rush Cartaya.
Andy Pages, 22, didn’t make BA’s top 100 list, but FanGraphs had him all the way up at #58. Like Cartaya, the outfielder is on the 40-man roster but is down in Double-A. Unlike Cartaya, he’s off to a roaring start there, hitting .281/.429/.490 for a wRC+ of 141 through 126 plate appearances this year.
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After a middling start to the 2023 season, the Dodgers have surged forward in recent weeks are now 23-15, taking the top spot in the National League West. They may not be quite as dominant as some other recent seasons, but there’s still plenty going right for them. At least part of that is due to the contributions of Outman and Vargas, who have stepped into everyday roles and are doing well. The pitching is still a work in progress due to various injuries throughout that mix, so they’ll need a bit more time for things to come into focus there.
Since they had a fairly limited offseason coming into this year, the Dodgers currently have about $82MM committed to the 2024 team, per Roster Resource. That doesn’t include arbitration salaries for players like Smith, May and others, but it seems like they could be well positioned to be more aggressive next winter. The areas that they target will likely be influenced by the performance of some of these rookies the rest of the way. The rotation is currently slated to lose Julio Urías, Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw at season’s end. Kershaw could always come back and the eventual return of Walker Buehler from Tommy John surgery will help, but one of the younger pitchers stepping up would also be a tremendous help.
On the position player side of things, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and Jason Heyward are set for free agency, but the rest of the group should still be around. If Outman and Vargas keep playing well, or someone like Busch or Pages takes a step forward, it’s possible the club goes into the winter with lots of payroll space and few holes to fill.
And they are ahead of the Padres
It’s cute people actually thought the Padres were a better team. Maybe 15th time is the charm for learning offseason champions means nothing
I believe it would be smart to not write off the Padres just yet. They have a lineup capable of producing a lot of runs and the pitching is in pretty good shape.
Never underestimate your opponent.
Good strategy.
All of the groundwork for this way laid by Kim Ng. Anyone who suggests otherwise is both a misogynist and bigot.
Huh huh he said laid by Kim huh huh
The fact that you’re the one to bring race into this makes you the only race baiting bigot here.
Or maybe they just disagree with your white knighting premise, rottingham.
And it’s funny how you said ‘way laid’. Meant to butter up to Ng, and instead, you backhand her.
(;^)
What is a Yute??
Maybe they are eating magic grits?
Top ten movie ever?
giphy.com/gifs/my-cousin-vinny-3o7btVptdt2BtYzJkI
And they have even more on the way next year. They have enough top pitching prospects in AA/AAA to make the 2014 Mets look like nothing.
And as usual, they’ll do well in the regular season & bow out quietly in the playoffs. Y’all never learn.
Outman is less surprising if you consider that after missing a year because of the pandemic, he did great in High A, then AA. Had he played in 2020 and done that, he’d have been a highly-rated prospect for 2021, at 23. Would he? I don’t know. No one does. But that’s the point: guys slowed by the pandemic year can be wild cards.
Outman will strike out 200 times and still might win ROY award.
He also might hit .281 with 17 SBs 34 HRs and 95 RBIs if we re projecting by current pace. 200 SOs is more than tolerable with that kind of production.
Im just happy i bet on him winning the ROY award preseason when it was +5000 as he is now the favorite
Nice odds
Although I do like Outman, you really can’t count out Corbin Carroll. Carroll is a superior talent who is right on the heels of Outman in the ROY race.
Or he could see a 90 point drop in BA and OPS with his wRC+ sinking to about 100 when his unsustainable BABIP falls to .300
When was the last time a team had a ROY winner and won the WS?
2010? Buster posey
Was just about to say that about Posey. Can’t think of any since then. Last one before that was Jeter in 1996. Then Fernando in 1981. It doesn’t happen very often.
Might not have been the last time, but Fernando won the ROY for the ‘81 WS Champion Dodgers
Judge did.
Huh? The Yankees didn’t even go to the playoffs in 2016.
Not sure the headline and the article quite agree with each other. Of all the players evaluated the only one making a significant contribution is Outman. Though he seems to be getting better, Vargas just is barely treading water offensively and defensively. Busch clearly has a long way to go, and none of the pitching prospects have done a thing. Room for optimism? I guess, just not a lot of hard evidence for it.
They’re rookies. You shouldn’t expect all-star production right away. These guys also aren’t as good as Bellinger, Seager, Buehler, Urias, etc. were as prospects.
All star production? Where did you get that argument? I can also remember when so many people here turned on Bellinger. Just barely because it was so long ago. Like, last year.
Seems like you expect All-Star production when you said Vargas is “barely treading water” when he’s been slightly above average as a hitter, even before you consider he’s a rookie.
No dog in this fight, blue. But according to Baseball Reference, Cody’s OPS+ over the previous two seasons was 65. I’m no stathead, but that’s pretty bad. I don’t know how long you can wait for someone to ‘find it’.
Uh, no. So far he’s been approximately average, a little above on offense and below on defense— which strangely enough I’m being told is wrong even by some who think it’s exactly right. Weird. Apparently my crime is not being a total homer. Guilty as charged I guess.
He hadn’t played completely healthy for a couple of years. Got massive pushback when I suggested that he could bounce back this season and that he could easily get as much from another team as it would cost the Dodgers to tender him a contract. But I guess I got that one totally wrong too.
I hope he tenpers the high fives for the remainder of his career.
“a little above on offense and below on defense“
That isn’t “barely treading water”. Those were words directly from you.
Ah, so now we’re supposed to debate the semantical difference between average and treading water (which last I checked meant not sinking or swimming)? You can have fun with that one by yourself.
Why are you getting mad at me for words you said? Lol, if you didn’t mean it then you shouldn’t have said it.
He said it and he was right. Treading water means you are neither good nor bad and that perfectly describes his performance so far.
He’s not, though. wRC+ and OPS+ literally say he’s above average as a hitter, particularly for a 2B. Again, we’re talking about a rookie here. He’s near the top of most offensive categories for rookies.
Well I guess we can be “miserable and defensive” together! That’s what we get for knowing the difference between an insult and an argument. Also, not just a little bit of projection going on here.
Hard to say Vargas is “barely treading water” when his bat has been 13% above league average. Offset by slightly below average D, and that’s at least a league average player. As a rookie. Smack bang in the middle isn’t “barely treading water”.
Standard pessimistic outlook though. You are very doom and gloom on Dodgers articles.
You just defined average and say that it isn’t. Standard non-response.
And Vargas is just now starting to figure it out after the ST injury. A little XBH uptick. Looks like he will be solid.
Especially when Dodgers can keep all of those assets and still make a plausible run at Ohtani.
Dang, wrong sub thread and cant delete after place in proper place. Sorry.
Out of those guys, I think Vargas might have the best chance of sticking of any of then. Outman seems to be a experiencing more than a little good luck at the plate while Vargas is having the opposite happen to him.
Vargas has the disadvantage of not having a natural position. It was a problem for him coming up and it is now still. He has plenty to prove on defense or his best chance of sticking is at DH. The game always has a place for someone who can play CF even if they can’t hit for a lot.
Yeah baby!!!!!
Very happy Dodgers didn’t trade their whole farm for Soto.
Certainly wouldn’t want a guy with a 144 OPS+ this season on your team instead of a bunch of prospects that are mostly in the minors.
Especially when you can keep all of those assets and make a plausible run at Ohtani.
Anything James does at the plate is an unexpected bonus.
He’s an outman everime he steps into the box
Gonna need at least one from that starting pitcher group to step up because Thor looks finished
AA is stacked too. Knack, Ryan, Frasso, Sheehan, Hurt, Nastrini give LA 6 potential SP options. DeLuca and Jorbit Vivas are both on the 40 man and have OPS around 1.000. Last years top pick catcher Dalton Rushing, has an elite bat. If he develops behind the plate, LA could have another gem.
Won’t matter — they choke every year.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
I was wrong about the Dodgers- still a great regular season team. Doesn’t change that they haven’t won a legitimate World Series since 1888.
Hey #8, 2020 happened, just ask the Brewers, Padres, Braves and Rays. Nothing illegitimate about the 13 post season victories. 2020 WS Champs!!
Postseason:
Won World Series (4-2) over Tampa Bay Rays
Won NL Championship Series (4-3) over Atlanta Braves
Won NL Division Series (3-0) over San Diego Padres
Won NL Wild Card Series (2-0) over Milwaukee Brewers
If the 2017 championship for the Astros is considered legitimate then to claim any other championship as illegitimate is absurd.
The Astros should have had their 2017 Piece Of Metal taken away and voided.
Getting in the made-for-TV playoffs via the wild-card backdoor is legitimate. But winning the actual playoffs isn’t?
Cherry pick much?
Clinging to the 2020 COVID-Tournament Championship Pennant as something worth bragging about is a really “hard cope” for Dodgers fans. I can’t really understand why anybody would want to claim it as legitimate. There were so many anamolous events during that 60 game “season” & totally gimmicky postseason. If my team had won it, it would mean nothing. MLB should vacate all stats, records, and pennants from that inglorious mistake of a “season.”
You should find another hobby.
Right, there should have been no season and I would hate if I was a fan of a team that hadn’t won a championship in such a long time and to see them end the drought with that sorry excuse for a World Series.
I love how the 2020 championship makes non-Dodger fans so mad. Here we are, in 2023, in a article about Dodgers prospects, talking about the 2020 season. Get over it already.
For the record I have absolutely nothing against the Dodgers. I am constantly in awe of their player development capabilities even though they always pick lower in the draft because of their constant success. I would be just as critical about the 2020 Circus SideShow no matter who won it all. I would hope most Dodgers fans would not be satisfied with that asterisk of a trophy and eager to win the real deal, which they have ample talent and winning philosophy to achieve, as soon as this very season. And I wish them well.
When 50% of the players are above or below their career averages, that season should just be thrown out. Everything that happened in 2020 was a joke.
So the other 50% hit exactly their career avg in 2020?
Yeah, I laughed at that comment too.
I’d venture to guess that nearly EVERY hitter hits either above or below their career averages EVERY year.
Although one time Vinny Castilla (Rockies) duplicated his triple crown stats in consecutive years!
BIL, 50% of players were 40% or more above or below their career averages in 2020, not JUST above or below. Huge difference. I agree with you that the season was a joke.
I blew that one, didn’t I. Leftfield is correct, 50% of players were 40% above or below their career averages.
Dodger fans should appreciate this run of greatness. Imagine what it’s like to root for guys like Manaea and Crawford every night.
1 in 5 top prospects make it as a regular at the major league level. A 2 WAR player. Not all of those guys are top prospects, but since the article names them which one of those 5 make it? 1 in 20 top prospects become a star. Do you think even one of those guys will make it to that 4+ WAR category of player?
The odds are in their favor with that kind of depth and would argue a position player and a pitcher of this group will become stars. The names mentioned above are just a fraction of their system.
The guys named are ALL of the Dodgers top prospects and more.
Of top 100 prospects, 1 in 5 become an average player, a 2 WAR regular in the majors.
So which ONE of those guys do you think will become that guy? Do you think one will eventually put up a 4 WAR season?
James Outman wasn’t even a top 100 prospect at most places and he’s on pace for over 5 bWAR. Your argument looks pretty flawed to me baseballislife
So what you are saying is the one guy out of all of those prospects that makes it is Outman?
Btw, he’s not on pace for 5 WAR because his BAbip and HR% are unsustainable and his BA and SLG will both regress 80-90 points and his OPS by 160-180 points over the course of the season. His defense has been less than stellar. At best, he is a 2-3 WAR player.
What has already happened is never an argument nor can it be flawed. It just is. That is what has happened historically.
I was actually being generous because I was giving the Dodgers the benefit of including guys that are not top 100 prospects like Outman.
I was also being generous with the percentage of top 100 prospects that achieve being a league average player in the bigs. Its only been 17%. Just 3% have achieved a 4 WAR season in their careers. But numbers like 1 in 5 or 1 in 15 are easier for most people to understand.
I’d advise against applying leaguewide averages to tiny sample sizes. Especially when the Dodgers have been better than average at developing young talent the last 10 years.
Dodgers are almost exactly on the averages. 18% and 3% since 1982. They have just developed more players that have entered the top 100 prospects than other teams in recent years.
Not anytime soon. Outman has had a great start, but regression will come, and we will see his BA and OPS drop substantially. His peripherals and BABIP indicate regressing 50-60 points in BA and more than 150 in OPS.
I had thought he was known for his defense which is why so many believed he could stick in CF but have not been impressed so far.
Last 10 years. Seems like they had a ROY contender in most of them. Pederson, Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Smith, May + Gonsolin and now Outman.
If only A. J. Preller was interesting in allowing his own youth movement to show positive results.
Miguel Vargas was a 3B while Michael Busch was a 2B in MiLB. LAD could switch them back.
Diego Cartaya will eventually replace Austin Barnes and Andy Pages will take over in LF next season.