The Astros don’t have an off-day until June 12, so the team had been considering moving to a six-man rotation to help keep their starters fresh during this busy stretch of the schedule. However, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) that the team might be forced to stick with a five-man alignment just due to a lack of available starting depth, since prospect Forrest Whitley has been placed on the Triple-A injured list due to a right lat strain. Whitley was the team’s top option for a spot start or two, and now Ronel Blanco might be the next candidate if Houston does indeed opt for a sixth starter.
Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t expected back until around the All-Star break, while Luis Garcia’s season has already been ended by Tommy John surgery. The injury situation has left the Astros short on starting pitching, and Whitley’s lat strain has again delayed his MLB debut. Once one of the sport’s top prospects, Whitley’s minor league career has been interrupted by a 50-game PED suspension in 2018, and by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season.
More on other injury situations that arose from today’s games…
- Carlos Santana left during the sixth inning of the Pirates’ 6-3 loss to the Mariners today due to what the Bucs described as lumbar spine muscular tightness. It would certainly seem like Santana will miss a couple of games to recovery, and a trip to the injured list is possible if his back problem doesn’t subside. Connor Joe is the likeliest candidate for first base duty in Santana’s absence, but Pittsburgh might now be facing a depth problem at first base since Ji-Man Choi isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day IL until at least mid-July.
- Twins reliever Emilio Pagan faced only one batter in today’s 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays before departing due to a left hip flexor strain. Both Pagan and manager Rocco Baldelli expressed hope that an IL stint wasn’t necessary, with Pagan telling the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Jerry Zgoda and other reporters that “hopefully we caught it early enough, that I’m good to go in a day or two. I think I’ll be ready to go tomorrow if need be.”
- Max Muncy left today’s game with a cramp in his left hamstring, and the Dodgers infielder told MLB.com and other media that he has been dealing with cramps throughout the weekend. Muncy will undergo an MRI to further examine the issue, but for now, he is day to day. Between a scorching-hot April and then a big slump for much of May, Muncy is still hitting .208/.340/.530 over 203 plate appearances this season, and he belted his 17th home run before his early exit today.
- X-rays were negative on Owen Miller’s right forearm, after the Brewers infielder was removed as a precautionary measure after being hit by a pitch in today’s game. Manager Craig Counsell told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters that Miller is day to day, and could be back for the team’s next game on Tuesday (Monday is an off-day for the Brew Crew). Miller’s hot bat has earned him more playing time, and after collecting two more hits today, Miller is slashing .330/.371/.513 over 124 PA.
Whitley has just under 320 career innings. That’s insane to me. Drafted out of high school and is now going on 26, so 7 years and 320 innings. I get injuries and Covid, it’s just an interesting career arc.
Don’t let the Rays get to him.
The farce of COVID derailed an incalculable number of careers and businesses. The corporations profiting from the scheme posted record profits, however, so mission accomplished.
Chubby Muncy is most likely the beneficiary of sign stealing. Kinda hard to explain how he was so awful the last few years & now hits homeruns every other at-bat. Before you say “durr injury,” he never even had it repaired. The guy could barely stay in the league before…
He’s been cheating for 6 seasons now? lmao
He was horrible the last 2. Mediocre his whole career. Now he’s Barry Bonds. Riiiight…
2021 the dude has a .900 OPS with 36 home runs. He has a career 122 OPS+
I’m a Dodger hater but this is a shockingly odd take. He posted 2.4 WAR last year and 4.8(!) the year before, that’s your standard for horrible? Half of his six seasons have been 35+ homers and 4.5+ WAR. That’s an All-Star.
He was garbage before joining LA. That year, 2018, was “coincidentally” also the year they got outed for sign stealing. Their fans choose to ignore this…
See also: Cody Bellinger’s random MVP season. Wonder why his numbers fell off a cliff?
Belly is easy injuries to back. Don’t be obtuse, you Dolt. Muncy has been good for years. If you just wanna hate to hate, just do that, but lying so childishly is an indictment on you as a human.
Barry Bonds? No! Mike Kingman, Rob Deer. Maybe.
Do you mean Dave Kingman, the biggest clutch in bb history?
God forbid a player improving. Haha.. dude went straight to cheating.
Max Muncy is the poster child for why only looking at batting average is stupid. .208 AVG, he sucks! Except, his OPS is almost .900, which puts him among the best hitters in the game.
So does that mean that only looking at OPS is also stupid?
OPS doesn’t even make much sense. You’re adding up two different numbers that have nothing to do with each other. And the sum of two percentages that can exceed 100% is supposed to mean what exactly? But then again I am no mathematician or logistician.
All stats are based on assumptions. SLG assumes that a double is twice as valuable as a single, and a triple, three times more valuable. Adding unweighted OBP to OPS assumes that a BB is as statistically valuable as a single. All of these assumptions should be challengeable, but they are just accepted as useful without question. Probably most of the teams these days produce their own proprietary statical models that are weighted to more closely reflect a player’s ability to contribute towards winning games. It would be interesting to see one, but nobody is ever going to pull back that veil. Baseball’s team secrets are better protected than the Pentagon’s.
I heard there was guy in AAA who pitched a no-hitter. But analytics proved that he had indeed not thrown a no-hitter even though he didn’t give up a hit. And yes, .208 is a crappy BA by any statistics.
No, but if those were the only two choices, OPS would be much better at showing a player’s hitting ability.
Fortunately, those two are not the only choices.
Of all the basic stats there are, OPS is by far the best at telling you a hitter’s level of production. But of course there are more accurate park-adjusted metrics such as OPS+ and wRC+. Batting average is not meaningless, but OPS includes average, OBP, and ISO as a sum of all three.
OPS is just OBP + SLG, no BA involved.
May I remind you that the batting champion in each league is determined by who has the highest BA? That’s it. No idiotic analytics proving that a .400 BA stinks.
No one said a .400 BA stinks because that would imply an OBP of at least .400, which is excellent. Of course, no one has had a .400 BA in over 80 years.
The idea of a batting average title being significant was developed 100 years ago when people didn’t realize that OBP and SLG were better indicators of skill.
I don’t know why someone would use the term “idiotic analytics.” How is more and better information a bad thing?
Yes, and the very fact that it’s a sum of all three (unweighted) is the reason to question the assumptions behind the stat. What is the OPS model designed to predict? Does it work? I have the same issue with WAR and its various flavors. This stat is supposed to predict wins. Has anyone even tried to figure out if it actually does? Not to my knowledge, and I’ve looked.
BlueSkies,
It’s not the sum of all three, it’s just OBP+SLG, BA is not included. It’s not designed to predict anything, rather to reflect what has happened, and the same thing is true of WAR.
If you have any recommendations for statistics that are supposed to predict performance, please share. I’ve looked, and they’re out there.
I know it doesn’t include BA. To clarify, I mean it’s the sum of total bases (SLG) and OBP. SLG and therefore OPS assumes that a BB is just as valuable as a single, a double is twice as valuable as a single, and a triple is three times as valuable, and so on. This is a very dubious assumption if the purpose of compiling the stat is to value a batter’s performance.
All statistical models are intended to predict. If they don’t correlate to some measurable reality then they are just numbers with no value or point.
SLG and OPS use different denominators, so that’s a problem. And a double isn’t worth 2x, a triple 3x, and a HR 4x what a single is worth. I don’t recall the exact ratios, but they are notably lower than those numbers. OPS is a crude estimate that doesn’t consider the relative value of OBP vs. SLG, the offensive environment of the era, or players’ home and road ballparks.
OPS+ tries to account for those last three factors, while wRC+ includes those three and the relative worth of each type of hit. But that’s getting beyond a traditional baseball card and into “idiotic analytics,” which apparently can be off-putting to some.
And none of those stats are predictive models. They simply show what happened. Sure, in the near future, a guy with a .900 OPS over the last two years probably will be better than a guy with a .700 OPS in the same time period, but that doesn’t mean we should expect either player necessarily to post similar numbers going forward.
xwOBA, ZiPS, Marcel, etc. – there are lots of predictive models out there, some better than others. Since we’re talking about human beings with varying short- and long-term health playing an ever-changing game against a wide variety of opponents, no model ever will be perfect. But constant refinements to what already exists certainly has value.
My God, you guys can really take the pleasure out of watching a game.
SLG is total bases divided by ABs. So it’s calculated exactly the way I said it was.
All statistical models are predictive. If you don’t know what that means, maybe statistics is one topic you shouldn’t be talking about. Hint: it means if you know one thing, you can predict another. Otherwise known as correlation.
I don’t make a habit of reading these discussions while I’m watching a game.
BlueSkies,
Yes, that’s how SLG is calculated. What I meant is, in reality a double isn’t worth 2x a single, etc.
There’s a difference between a statistic and a statistical model. One shows what happens, one can predict what may happen.
avenger,
You enjoy the game as you see fit, and the rest of us will do the same. There’s no one single way to take pleasure from baseball.
They are all predictive because they are supposed to mathematically represent reality. The way you determine if they are valid representations of reality is to test them against that reality. The method is correlation by regression analysis. If you can’t show that your mathematical model predicts something else, it’s just a number. Pretty to look at, lovely to hold — but meaningless.
The simplest example of this in baseball is WAR. The thing it’s supposed to predict is right there in the name. Its predictive value could be tested, but as far as I can tell, it never has been, at least not publicly. So what’s its value, if it’s just a number?
I don’t understand what OPS is supposed to predict. Or batting average. Or WAR or any other number that simply tells what happened.
If a batter goes 1-for-4 with a double, should we predict he’ll do that every game?
I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. Are you saying OPS and WAR are bad stats?
The answers in to your questions are contained in the post you just responded to, so I don’t think I should have to explain it again.
At least we can both agree we don’t see eye to eye, making any continuation of this discussion fruitless.
So he makes outs 4 out of 5 times he swings the bat. Does he hit with power when he gets a hit? Yes. Is he a good hitter? Absolutely not! Freeman is among the best hitters in the game. Muncy is not in that class.
You don’t know ball
Career .354 OBP, 2023 .340. Muncy gets on base 1.75 times for those 5 plate appearances. He gets on base. Do we care if it’s a walk or a hit? no! He gets on base and has power. Above average batter.
Nobody said he’s as good as Freeman. He’s still a valuable offensive player due to the walks and homers, obviously.
He’s not a “good hitter” only if you define that according to your twisted pretzel terms.
If you want to define good hitter as “high batting average” then no, he’s not a good hitter.
If you want to define it in terms of overall production (which kind of makes more sense to me) then yes, he is among the best in the game.
Can’t believe I’m having this argument lol
Connor Joe, 0-13 in the Mariners series and has the second highest strikeouts isn’t worth the trade that brought him to Pittsburgh
The guy they traded him for has an ERA of 8.00 with a low K% and high BB% as a 24 year old at Double-A. Joe might not be the best hitter ever, but I’ll take him over a minor league pitcher who has yet to do anything significant in his pro career.
Joe isn’t only one of the worst hitters on this team, his batting average with runners in scoring position is amongst the worst in all of baseball And speaking of strikeouts, Hayes accomplished this feat 4 times in 5 ABs yesterday
With all that said, it could be that neither of these players are that horrible at the plate, it could be that the hitting coach isn’t worth whatever he’s getting paid
This offense seems to be in a perpetual slump and someone should be held responsible
I blame TheMan.
You can’t get blood from a stone, TheMan3. I agree with you about the Pirates player development program all the way from the minors through the MLB level, but if a guy just doesn’t have the ability, I’m not sure what hitting guru is going to change things
Joe had a hot streak there during the first 30 games but he is who we thought he was. And making Hayes the cornerstone of the organization and signing him to a long term contract as they did is still a mystery
Again, the Pirates are playing about as we expected, aren’t they? I don’t see any cavalry coming over the hill where hitting is concerned and again, it all comes down to Reynolds and now, Cutch, to be the somewhat consistent hitters on this team with a blind squirrel or two getting a big hit now and then
Guess what continues to be confounding is all of this talk about the blue chippers that were coming through the farm system. Where are they?
Should be now think that guys like Davis, Endy and a couple of other guys be the same type of hitters when they get here?
The “bright spot” has been pitching, buoyed by Keller, but even that—beyond him—is somewhat inconsistent, owing I guess to their youth
But hey, they’ll be contenders by ‘27
I agree, cornwhisperer, all these years we’ve been hearing of how solid our farm system is and how much potential these players have.
It’s humiliating listening to the broadcasters praise players like Joe and Castillo when facing a southpaw.
More often than not, they swing at every pitch regardless of the location
Just one shy of the Grande golden sombrero. I really do think each team should have a couple of these on hand for players to wear when they “accomplish” this feat, but getting them to wear it might result in a few dugout fights. It would be fun, though.
Astros made boner error not signing some veteran stud arms. Fizzle out end to possible dynasty? Or maybe do steal trade? Send Detroit some peanut butter for ERod? Maybe sweeten deal with a jar of jelly? Gotta at least one up the Verlander-give-up-nothing-for-a-Cy-Young-all-time-arm steal trade.
Get Muncy some Midol.
Eric Hosmer “accidentally” butt dials Cherington “*cough* I’m available *cough*”
If Santana ends up on the IL, they’ll have to sign a first baseman.
Joe won’t be able to play every game, and Choi isn’t eligible yet to come off the IL
As a Twins fan I hope pagan takes as loooooong as he needs… like I am comfortable putting him on the 60 day list for this minor injury… haha