The Pirates and representatives for right-hander Mitch Keller have been in talks about a contract extension, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. There isn’t any sense whether or not the two sides are particularly close to an agreement, though Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested last month that the club was looking to extend more core players now that Bryan Reynolds had completed his own long-term deal.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Keller as a logical extension candidate at the time, and he further described Keller’s breakout over the last two seasons in a recent piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Since cutting back on the usage of his four-seam fastball in 2021, Keller has blossomed, with Steve observing that “fast forward to 2023, and Keller’s pitch arsenal is even more diverse thanks to a revamped cutter. He’s throwing his four-seamer, sinker and cutter all at a 21-24% clip, mixing in a sweeper and curve that he uses about equally…It’s a much different arsenal than in 2021, when Keller was throwing 57% four-seamers, 24% cutters, 14% curveballs and mixing in a show-me changeup.”
It wasn’t like Keller’s emergence came out of nowhere, as he was a second-round pick in the 2014 draft and a regular on top-50 prospect lists during his climb up Pittsburgh’s minor league ladder. His first few shots at the majors didn’t go well, however, as Keller posted a 6.02 ERA over 170 1/3 innings from 2019-21.
After a promising step forward in 2022, Keller has now looked more like a front-of-the-rotation arm during his excellent start to the 2023 campaign. Today’s outing against the Orioles was the latest example, as Keller allowed just four hits and no walks while recording 13 strikeouts over seven shutout innings. This gem improved Keller’s ERA to 2.38 over 56 2/3 IP, and just about all of his Statcast numbers are well above the league average.
Keller just turned 27 last month, and he is earning $2,437,500 this season in his first of three arbitration-eligible years. This means Keller will be entering his age-30 season when he enters free agency during the 2025-26 offseason, unless the Pirates lock him up beforehand on an extension.
Keller’s agents at Tidal Sports Group might logically point to Logan Webb’s recent five-year, $90MM extension with the Giants as a comp for a potential deal for their client. Webb is seven months younger than Keller, but the two have comparable big league service times and somewhat similar resumes as pitchers who went through a rough beginning to their MLB careers before posting consecutive quality seasons.
Of course, Webb had fully completed his second good year at the time of his extension while Keller only really started to pitch well midway through the 2022 campaign and his 2023 success does represent only nine starts. That said, Keller’s price tag is only rising as he continues to post great results, so he could choose to bet on himself and wait until after the season to pursue an extension.
The fact that the perennially low-payroll Pirates are even engaged in long-term contract talks represents a turning point for the club, as while a brutal slump in May has curbed the enthusiasm of the team’s 20-9 start to the season, Pittsburgh still has a 22-19 record. The Bucs have just one winning record in the previous seven seasons, as the team’s previous contending roster ran out of steam, and the club then engaged in a lengthy rebuilding process.
The early results have indicated that the Pirates’ rebuild may be wrapping up, and to that end, Nutting has authorized the two biggest contracts in franchise history. While still smaller than the priciest contracts of most other teams around the majors, the Pirates signed Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM extension in April 2022, and then extended Reynolds with seven years and $100MM of new money last month. The Pirates aren’t likely to ever become truly big spenders, yet locking up certain cornerstone talents is a proven method for smaller-market teams to gain some cost certainty over premium talent.
Bob Nutting (underrated/underappreciated) will get it done.
obvious troll
Anyone who refers to Nutting as “ underrated or under appreciated “ hasn’t been paying attention to the Pirates since he became majority ownership
Bob in fact is under appreciated and underrated.
Primary reason why that is fact is that the opinion of his time as the majority is so low that even when the team is winning it is still bottom of the barrel.
Takes only one brick to start making a building. If he extends Keller, after extending Reynolds, it may rev up the fans and possibly create interest in playing for the Pirates. The city, in itself, isn’t a bad place to be, especially when compared to a lot of other major league cities.
Best stadium in mlb. SF is 2nd.
With how poorly this team has played over the past 12 games ( minus Keller’s incredible performances) I wonder if Nutting regrets giving Shelton an extension
His lineups of batting the fastball player in the bottom of the order, batting what is perceived to be his most effective run producer second, the decision to promote a 27 year old retread that has shown very little production, insisting on batting the team offensive leader in strikeouts, 5th or 6th, and not using the bunt to the offense’ advantage is beyond my comprehension
They have far too many players that swing at pitches outside of the strike zone
I highly doubt Nutting cares much about Ben extending him. Coaches don’t make millions and if they feel Shelton isn’t the right person to push over into contender territory, cutting him loose won’t kill the payroll.
Or it could be considered that Shelton works so cheap and is willing to do so for a cheap owner, it made sense to extend him
my point was. Salary wise it makes almost no difference.
To your point of line ups and such, those should be directed to Ben.
Since Ben’s name rarely appears on this site, I must take every opportunity to point out his ridiculous lineups
Do you honestly believe that Nutting cares whether they are competitive?
I vividly recall when he said that if attendance improved he’d increase salaries
Instead he dumped them
Yes I do. Competitive is more valuable. But i also know he isn’t going to put the Franchise to the brink of failure as it was when the Nuttings got into the fold in a bigger way.
“Instead he dumped them” doesn’t fit with the facts.
Pirates attendance rose in 2011, the very next year the start of the season salary doubled. salary is low again the past handful of years because they tore down which also reflects in attendance which the past few years (not counting 2020) is at a low for PNC and lowest since the 90s if i recall
I’m sure we’ve been through all this before. I’d like Nutting to put more resources to the on field product when it makes sense. past few years it didn’t. Going forward it looks like it will be.
Pirates aren’t the only team with high strike outs…..Keller just fanned 13 orioles…you make too much out of the strike outs
That 5/90 would make some sense next offseason IF he has a good full year in ’23 of performance/durability. Looks like the next 2 arb years are only around 15 mil combined with his early career struggles, so 3 FA seasons at 25per is pretty fair. Keller can perhaps watch what Giolito makes in FA as a comp risk for riding things out, as he has alternated between looking like either a #2 starter or DFA candidate.
In Keller’s defense, his numbers reflect a turnaround since he was temporarily demoted to the bullpen last year. Plus he added another pitch to his arsenal.
I get why he wants similar numbers to Webb’s. He is the #1 starter here and should be paid accordingly
I don’t see anything in the post that says Keller wants numbers similar to Webb. I believe that was the writer’s speculation. And low payroll has been the standard well before Nutting.
Kevin McClatchy told the city that if a new stadium was constructed to replace 3 Rivers, the Pirates would be competitive within 5 years and payroll would increase
He lied, the taxpayers funded the construction of PNC Park and despite the fact that the state put the referendum on the ballot to support or not, taxes paying for it . Voters overwhelmingly rejected the idea
All of the most recent owners of this franchise are liars
They rejected the initial plan. Then Scam B.. uh.. i mean Plan B didn’t need a public vote. I didn’t like Plan B but it is often confused with the public vote plan… which are separate.
TL:DR; of Plan B for those out side of Pittsburgh. Steelers and Pirates got new stadiums for ~$450m. Steelers committing ~75m and Pirates 40M payback through ticket sales, naming rights, cash and such. something like 300M came from teams, funding from the public, taxes on out of state athletes… ~300m or so came from state and federal aid. Pretty sure that funding was there regardless of what plan passed.
Side Note: the teams don’t own the stadiums and i do believe they still pay a lease fee.. but i’m not sure on that. Both teams committed to staying in Pittsburgh until 2030ish.
Government dropping cash on new stadiums is something that hits my pocket directly with the Bills Stadium.
The Sports and Exhibition Authority receives 5% of every ticket sold as rent for the Pirates use of PNC Park, according to the SEA’s website
the percentage on ticket revenue is variable based on sales. Vendor charges are similar, it really doesn’t matter though. I think it was only paid out once or twice and that was during the few winning years. They didn’t have to pay because they could deduct the lease payment i think it is. I think it was the Triblive that reported that
I think there was also a provision where the team pays millions after 10,20 and 30 years. That might have been in “Plan A” though. Its been a few years.
The Pirates portion of the deal was overly generous to the team at the time due to the franchise’s financial troubles. Wish the sports authority could see the future and knew that the MLB profits would take off.
Also a correction that 300m from government aid was split for other cities too.
My memory of all this is pretty vague too since it’s been over 20 years since PNC Park opened but I also remember there was some level of investment from the Pirates, Steelers and the parking lots/garages by the stadiums involved with extending the T line to the north side to build the tunnel through the river to connect the lines since those entities would be primary beneficiaries. I also vaguely recall that the Pirates backed out of that deal as soon as they could after a few years of payments.
Side note to all non Pittsburgh people, yes the city did in fact build a roughly half a billion dollar tunnel through a river when there’s already approximately 450 bridges already existing in the city, more than any other city in the world.
Why don’t you start you’re own podcast ..call it…THE MAN, THE MYTH, THE WHINER
I also don’t understand where the consecutive quality seasons comes from. I’m very much pro MK. And I do hope they extend him. And I think he will be a better pitcher than Webb long term and is right now tbh. But his resume so far is not Webb’s. And also Webb dominated the 106 win Dodgers in the playoffs 2 years ago.
Which is exactly why pirates should push for this now.
I dunno, 5/90 seems wild, I used to think these guys were signing for stuff like 5/50 or so. He looks like a completely different pitcher this year and most of last from what we’ve seen. Stuff is insane, and he locates that fastball with tons of movement wherever he wants. Still slightly worried though because what we’ve seen before and since he’s not too young. The Pirates need him and a few others like hi m though to compete.
Dude is a pseudo-ace in the making, 5/50 seems demonstrably low. 5/90 seems like the entry point (if I were him.) Otherwise he’ll just bet on himself. Idk, but it will be interesting to watch.
What we saw pre 2022 AS game isn’t the same pitcher we’ve seen since
He’s never been as effective as he has this year which suggests he’s not a fluke
Sometimes it takes years for a pitcher to blossom, Keller is indeed blossoming
His Catcher, Austin Hedges, was quoted saying, “Orioles hitters told me Keller had the best stuff we have seen this year.”
His pitching of late looks like Hayes’s defense at 3B, the best in the league.
Pay that man his money!
Scott Kliesen….pay that man his money! LOVE that line from Rounders! And I agree…pay Keller. Pay that man!
Great guy. Hope he gets his money.
LOVE THIS DUDE. Best Fantasy draft pick of the year so far
I’ve had him on my roster for his last 3 starts – best pickup of the year by far.
Traded Griffin Canning for Keller after the draft. I’m happy as a clam!
Killer Keller Syndrome playing out this year.
Mitch reducing hitters to Helen.
Well, after that dominating performance yesterday against the Orioles
He is a good pitcher!
As with Reynolds the bit thing that really concerns me is his age and really that is a minor thing. Unless injury he still should be a rotation arm. Also given just one year of great performance.
Pretty safe to say we all knew he had great stuff, but I didn’t know why it didn’t work. Now we do
as of right now. As Keller I want 22m/AAV. As the Front Office I want 17m AAV. I think a settle of 19/20m over 7 years would be the sweet spot for me.
the longer he does well the higher that price goes.
At this point in time, you have to salute Marin for his work with Pirates pitchers. I get it. Not every start is quality. But Keller’s turnaround has been sensational and while Contreras and Oviedo still endure growing pains, one can only think there is great upside for the staff, especially with what Brubaker was showing in spring training
The Pirates are hitting and defending at a level many of us anticipated. There is a great deal of work to be done
Hope Keller is the Bucs’ pitching anchor for years to come
Corn- I think that changes have to be made soon in how the players are managed.Marin should definitely get a raise.I do not know if Shelton is responsible for the lack of good fielding but he must be playing some sort of role.I think that it said volumes about the hitting coach when Cruz used his own and seemed to start becoming a much more selective hitter.The hitting coach needs to go..The minor league coaching staff may also need a housecleaning sooner rather than later as that is what doomed Huntington.I am not saying all should be jettisoned but the weaker ones need to be let go.
Plus,I cannot believe the number of coaches on this staff.I wonder if there are too many.They have shown progress this year but if they do revert back to the ways of the last three years I think that heads need to roll and it needs to be Ben as the one to address it first.
As we have agreed many times before, the twin problems of poor scouting and poorer player development sealed Huntington’s fate. Under Cherington, we’ve seen upgrades in some sense but also many areas that make you wonder
Fielding, of course. But plate discipline remains a mystery with some of the young guys. Picking up spin pitches and knowing the strike zone is one thing, but the inability to understand counts, pitcher strategy within and what to do to move runners up are things you learn in high school
Base running remains a strange situation. You see things here that I would wonder if you see at the minor league level
I do like the fact that the kids don’t take losing that well and have some sense of pride, which amazingly enough were missing when they often got their brains beaten in last season. But I think that is more attributable to guys like Cutch and Santana being on board
A lot of work to be done here and still wonder about guys on the farm who are said to be on the cusp of being ready. What we have seen previously has been the idea that the kids have talent but it’s been unpolished and it’s likely the idea of “ being ready” is only where the Pirates are concerned
To me, the bright side in all of this has been pitching and that includes Hill and VV. I still have a hard time believing that equates to more than 75 or 77 wins
Still, I’ll take it
Corn-We rarely differ.
We are both very cautious optimists.
Guys on the farm who are said to be on the cusp….
Like Palacios?
Hitting minor league pitchers does not translate into hitting major league pitchers
TheMan3, I only go by what those who follow the minors say, and really, what I saw in spring
Swaggerty. Gonzalez. Endy. Davis. Peguero. Tamarr (likely the farthest away) and a number of pitchers, beginning with Priester
You made my point. We hear they are on the cusp, then they get here and you see things that likely should have been corrected on the farm.
I get that few guys arrive as Barry Bonds did but conversely, I have doubts about player development and evaluation, as stated above
I think that they have to give guys like Palacios a Chance.The problem is how long.I think that they should start at least five or six games to get into a rhythm and If they are not highly touted that is all that they may get.
I think that BC has it right that they have to earn their chance from their AAA record.Suwinski skipped AAA but when they sent him down last year to it he did not do well.Mitchell on the other hand did extremely well there but not so well in the MLS.
The good thing about giving these guys a chance if they earn it is others see it and strive to replicate it.Promoting Maggia was done for that same reason.
I am not impressed with many of the Pirates remaining minor leaguers although I think that Endy and Davis have a decent chance to be good.Hopefully Burrows can come back,and Preister gets his A game going.Not sure about the other guys,may just be Pirates blah blah blah.
and Suwinski following his 2022 season has more strikeouts than hits
Yeah he has raw power but when the bat can’t connect on a pitch and he’s just one example, this team collectively will continue to strike out on average 10 times a game
Swaggerty should have made the major league roster after spring training and instead he went back to Indy
They chose CSN who couldn’t hit effectively and was in my opinion, a wasted roster spot
Many on this site were praising the trade that brought Mathias here, that with enough ABs he’d be an offensive force
He failed in that regard too
So I must ask, are our scouts that far off and is our player development equivalent to that of the Huntington era?
The Pirates are actually 13 th best in ML strikeouts at 8.5 per game which reflects the current situation in baseball
Suwnski strikes out at a tad below 40% which is very concerning because he has not improved since last year.He does however walk a lot at a 1 to 2 ratio to strikeouts.His OPS is 826 which is very good.
CSN had a great spring training but clearly showed that he could not hit ML pitching during the regular season..He is a young player who needs to play and is getting that in AAA.It is concerning that he is hitting only 225 in AAA.
Swagger ty did not impress last year in his cup of coffee and is hitting 231 in AAA with one home run.He is a fine center fielder but he has not progressed as a hitter and is destined to be at best a fourth or fifth outfielder.
Mathias was a waiver pickup who has options and provides a good emergency backup for a couple of positions which is the best that one can hope for with acquisitions in that manner.
I do not have a whole lot more confidence in the scouts and player development than those under NH other than Oscar Marin.BC needs to finally take a hard look at what he has and make some tough decisions as April has whetted the appetite of a lot of people,
The Pirates season will be determined by how they hit and whether they have any more pitching injuries.Their fielding is still bad as they regularly give up an unearned run per game this month.Someone should have to pay the price for that continued lack of appreciating good defense.
I think this period in time is representative of what we are going to see this season and truthfully, beyond Reynolds, just who can be counted on to be a consistent hitter moving forward, beyond ‘23?
Cruz? Maybe
Suwinski? As TheMan3 has pointed out, he’s very much a home run or strikeout proposition
We’ve seen enough of Hayes to know that unless they completely tear him down, the guy will never be a hitter
So where do the hits, homers and runs batted in come from?
From what I have seen this year, Cutch and Santana are the guys who are somewhat consistent at putting the ball in play and hitting the ball hard
But I’m at a loss to understand who among the younger guys provides punch, beyond Reynolds.
So we’re going to rely on pitching the scratch some wins out. That’s fine, but it’s hard to give fans the “contender” they want with that style
don’t you get tired of players who serve as
emergency backups that can’t hit or field?
Mathias reminds me of the typical dumpster dive this franchise is known for
Swaggerty is also injured if memory serves and I supported his making the major league team from his spring training performance
Earlier in the season they played an effective “ small ball” at times so my next question, why not put Bae either at the top of the lineup or batting second.
There’s no reason why the fastest player batting 7-9 depending on the opposing pitcher.
He can bunt as can Marcano
I’m beyond comprehension of Shelton’s lineups
I’m wondering at what point Shelton understands that they are going to have to scrape runs to get by this season. Yes, his lineups are kind of akin to some sort of weird juggling act—throw it up in the air and hope for the best
Yes, you have speed and refuse to utilize it. You fail to move runners up and situational baseball—pinch hit for a lefty hitter when a lefty reliever comes in—is somehow replaced by analytics of hoping for the best
More than anything else though, go around the line up and tell me where runs are going to come from. As we said at the beginning of the season, there’s a lot of scrap here.
Maybe we can just hope that Cutch, Joe, Reynolds and Suwinski have 30 homer seasons
Bae is playing in centerfield in this afternoon’s game. While I like that he’s in the lineup, his fielding in the outfield is questionable
Another thing, they need to find another 1st baseman to give Santana an occasional break.
One that doesn’t strike out at an alarming rate like Joe does.
Mendoza said we are 3rd in the least amount of ks but a team that lacks run production, striking out the league’s average of 8 times during the course of a game isn’t going to produce enough runs to win
Paul-I think that Bae May eventually learn to be a good centerfielder but this is typical of the Pirates and almost all other teams,
They want these guys to play multiple positions if they are good athletes but the problem is most ML players are good athletes.I saw this with Tucker and Hoy as they just told them to trot out to right field like it is Little League. And they made fools of themselves.
Not everyone is Sean Rodriguez.
This folly is especially true of moving infielders to the outfield.It was sad but almost comical when the Phillies moved Hopkins to left field several years ago.
I have said all along that Bae in center and Cruz in right would be their best option but they need to get these guys into the instructional league to start to try them in a new position.
And you are right Bae should be batting first or second as his speed is very good.
I think that Shelton has done the best that he could do with the troops that he had but he is incapable of taking them to the next level.Sometimes players just need a new voice to hear.
The Pirates are 13 th in strikeouts so that is less than 17 other teams.
Corn- Plenty of contenders can do that but few WS winners have ever done it.
But what those teams do do is not give away one run every game.
Their bullpen is the best part of the team but they are wasting it on only fair starting pitching with no backups and no hitting with poor defense.
It is still very frustrating being a Pirates fan.
Today’s game not counting, what is the purpose of batting Hayes first?
He’s having a subpar season and his batting average is at its lowest all year
I agree that they should learn to play multiple positions though
Did you happen to see that beautiful bunt Owings laid down?
Hayes would not be a starter if not for his glove.He is a 250 hitter with single digit home runs and relatively few walks and strikeouts.
I cannot answer your question and I doubt that Shelton can either.
I think that he gets bored with one lineup unless there is a stat nerd somewhere telling him what to do.
Multiple positions is fine but to play well in the MLS you need to play them all well and few can learn a position well in a year especially if it is unnatural to them.
I did not as I rarely watch them.
The reputations of some front offices are so tarnished that Nutting will fix them.
Good job not trading him during off-season but I’m sure there kicking themselves for not extending during spring training
Trikie duckie ..the pirates were talking during the off-season about extending Keller ..there was never any mention of trading him ..he turned it around the second half of last year. And continues this year ..he’s going to be one of the top five pitchers in baseball
Sometimes patience is a virtue. Patience, and finding the right pitching coach.
If only we could find the right hitting coach
The quote about his 2023 success being only 9 games is valid but small market teams have to play this forecasting game with less data. As noted, each strong start ups the pot as well. After his masterful performance in that O’s win, I think it certainly not too early to be talking about locking up a potential ace long term. He was in command all game and efficient as well.
Mitch is the only pirate pitcher that should be in consideration for an extension. Some may say Bednar, and or Contreras, but I think they should wait on them.
Keller is definitely the ace and a number 1 on many teams.
He has proven over the last year the consistency that was lacking before.He has always been heralded as having a fine future.
Someone said that he was worth $15M total over his final two arbitration years.That makes sense.This is similar to Reynolds except for one very important thing.
Pitchers predictably have major injuries at least half the time.Consequently,they should be aware that a guarantee of a lot of money should be even more important to them than position players.
I say give him $15M a year for three subsequent years which totals $60 M for a five year contract.I think that he has proven enough that a major contract is warranted.
I think that Bednar has proven the same thing.The Pirates have almost always had good closers going all the way back to Roy Face.They are an essential part to any good team.
Not sure what his contract would look like but he is a very important part of the team and deserves a guarantee also.
To me the best part of Keller’s run of success and turning his potential into production is that you can tell that he knows he needs to be the guy on the staff to step up and anchor the rotation, then he goes out and does it. Not only is he becoming a legit top 5 Cy Young candidate type of pitcher but he’s simultaneously becoming a leader of the pitching staff and team as a whole. That is exactly the kind of guy you lock up long term.